Links 3/19/2026

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1. Mikerw0 March 19, 2026 at 7:16 am

   Wall Street analysts and economists slice a salami one slice at a time. It takes real boldness to go away from the consensus view at any point in time.
2. Ben Panga March 19, 2026 at 7:28 am

   Re: Major security breach: Drone sighting over US Army base, close to where Rubio, Hegseth live

   WSJ had this earlier at the top of their homepage:

   Drones over base where Rubio, Hegseth live raise security concerns (WSJ, archived)

   Repeats the whole collection of dubious Iran sleeper cells, Iran targeted Trump stories.

   My tinfoil brain remembers the stories if the US copying Shaheds. Another bit of my tinfoil brain remembers the NJ drone scare in Dec 24, and a whole series of them in Europe over the last few years. The tinfoiliest part of my brain remembers that Palantir and Anduril and their mil-gov buddies were behind the whole UFO/drone scam.

   If I was Hegseth I wouldn’t be doing my Crusader work-out outside the house.
3. dave -- just dave March 19, 2026 at 7:35 am

   Re The South Pars Pulse: Why the ‘Energy War’ is Actually a Thermodynamic Singularity – how much methane has been and will be released? How delayed will its dispersal be, leading to the “thermodynamic singularity” – very hot weather – anticipated by the author? No data or modeling is presented. When I was a student we called this “handwaving”.
   1. Alphonse March 19, 2026 at 2:16 pm

      A related (I think it’s in the comments) conspiracy-tinged post makes some interesting suggestions. Basically, that the major parties to the war all have an interest in it continuing.

      I don’t think the world works so neatly, that elites are so competent, and I would require a lot more evidence. That said, there is no need for conspiracy when interests overlap, many things that seemed outlandish have turned out to be real, science fiction is often a better predictor than sober analysis, and there are no pure sources – all believe in something crazy (e.g. Russiagate). So I think it’s interesting.

      The framework of Shahid, the blogger, is that the powers that be aim to redistribute resources and control upwards using crises like climate change as an excuse. He says in another post that climate change is real; he measures the effect on water for a living. He says that whenever there’s a choice between environmental remediation, which would combat climate change, and mining for resources to advance electrification, the choice is always to mine and despoil.

      Whereas fossil fuels are relatively decentralized and independent of central control, the effect of electrification is to centralize. Like hydraulic despotism, he who controls the grid controls the people. Shahid argues that climate action is a fig leaf for a power grab. Honestly, I agree. Covid convinced me: a real crisis was used as an opportunity to increase power, not save health or lives. In both instances opposition is disarmed, divided between those who believe in both the crisis and the authorities, and those who reject both.

      Covid turned out to be less a change of direction than an acceleration of existing trends. Life went online, power penetrated deeper into everyday life, wealth concentrated in fewer hands. Shahid argues that the war is a similar accelerant that will propel these tendencies still further – and because of this, the powers involved have little incentive for peace.

      Among his claims about the war: it reinforces the role of the dollar; it will phase out fossil fuels and accelerate electrification; it will justify digital ration cards, CDBCs and other surveillance controls; it will reduce population (“carrying capacity drops across the Middle East and South Asia” – due to famine I presume); it reduces resource demand; it justifies cracking down on journalism and speech; and so on.

      These tendencies are nothing new. States at war become more authoritarian. They do not voluntarily yield power when the war ends. Claims like these often get tangled up in questions of conspiracy and intent. I think only a fool would believe that he can reliably harness the chaos of war. I take Shahid’s argument less as a prediction than as fragments of a scary potential future, with signposts to watch out for.
      1. Linearperk March 20, 2026 at 1:50 am

         Great comment!
4. The Rev Kev March 19, 2026 at 7:38 am

   ‘AF Post
   @AFpost
   An American nurse based in Germany tells AF Post that the casualties (wounded and deceased) coming into Germany from the Middle East are “far higher” than what is being reported.’

   Personally I have little doubt that the casualty reports are being underplayed. And if a contractor gets killed or wounded, is he even counted at all? But if Trump and Hegseth are hiding killed and wounded, it is only a matter of time till the real numbers come out. I don’t think that they can hide these numbers till November.
   1. Ben Panga March 19, 2026 at 9:07 am

      Larry Wilkerson (with Nima a couple of days ago) said he thinks it’s 100ish American dead (military and civilian contractors)
5. lyman alpha blob March 19, 2026 at 7:53 am

   Afroman is free!

   Well, he was free already but he doesn’t have to pay the ridiculous cops who sued him after they got caught on film raiding his house. In the great American tradition, the man knows how to put on a show.

   Thanks to Afroman, we still have free speech in the US of A, and that includes relentlessly mocking law enforcement for fun and profit. Like the man says, when life gives you lemons, you make lemon pound cake. Have a nice big piece to celebrate!
   1. Vicky Cookies March 19, 2026 at 8:42 am

      I watched his testimony last night. He was a fantastic witness. He was only examined by the plaintiff’s counsel (no cross), and made every question about the cops malfeasance, coming across as exceedingly credible despite a) contradictory testimony in a previous deposition and b) the fact that he was wearing an American flag suit with matching tie and American flag glasses.
      1. lyman alpha blob March 19, 2026 at 8:59 am

         Don’t forget the gold marijuana leaf rings he was sporting! His testimony reminded me of Taylor Swift when she counter sued the guy who had sued her for loss of livelihood after he grabbed her rear end in public and was fired from his job for it. She just kept repeating “If your client hadn’t grabbed my ass…” He did the same – when the plaintiff’s attorney tried to trip him up, he just kept hammering them with “If you hadn’t kicked in my door for no reason, we wouldn’t even be here.”

         Here’s his testimony.

         And just for good measure, his underappreciated classic about Sleepy Joe’s prodigal son – Hunter Got High
         1. Stephen V March 19, 2026 at 10:03 am

            Dang. HGH should be up for multiple Gummy Awards. Thank you LAB!
         2. .Tom March 19, 2026 at 10:52 am

            That’s the video I put on when I need a pick-me-up and a smile. So good. Afroman is the best.

            So nice to see this little legal victory. Thanks for sharing.
6. Wukchumni March 19, 2026 at 8:02 am

   Goooooooood Moooooooorning Fiatnam!

   Nobody found the dếbt offensive, was the general consensus among those in non-Domino Factor democracies, in fact it was very much welcomed-bring it on!
   1. The Rev Kev March 19, 2026 at 8:29 am

      C’mon, Wuk. We have to stay optimistic. The debt has just hit $39 trillion so this war will push it well past that point to nearer $50 trillion. And as they say in DeeCee, a trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money. :)
      1. JMH March 19, 2026 at 10:21 am

         Was Ev Dirksens’s original a million here a million there or billions? It was a long time ago. I also remember Johnson fiddling with the numbers to keep the federal budget … remember budgets, debates about the budget, not continuing resolutions and what the hell just spend it. … under $100 billion. What a collection of useless grifters, the lot of them.
         1. converger March 19, 2026 at 11:24 am

            Billions.

            Annoying Republican though he was, Everett Dirksen is an enduring national treasure when it comes to dry wit.
7. The Rev Kev March 19, 2026 at 8:25 am

   ‘Bricx News
   @BricxNews
   🇮🇱🔥 Reports and video claim Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv is on fire after recent strikes.
   Massive flames visible near the runway area at night.’

   Anybody got an idea how many airliners were taken out during this strike? It looks like more than a few. Good luck trying to persuade foreign carriers to fly into Israel any time soon.
   1. Ben Panga March 19, 2026 at 9:16 am

      The video has been called out as fake by some osint dudes I trust & no-one reputable seems to be tweeting it out

      Eg: MenchOsint says it’s AI

      The only clear stuff I’ve seen from BG, is of 3 badly damaged private planes

      Edit: I clicked through to the website of the poster and it’s AI slop articles eg; https://bricxnews.com/news/us-stock-market-wipes-800-billion-value
8. .Tom March 19, 2026 at 8:40 am

   In his conversation yesterday with Diesen, Marandi gave quite a telling off to an unnamed Western leftist who was on Diesen recently and I believe was Varoufakis. I listened to Varoufakis conversation with Diesen on Sunday morning while driving the dogs to boarding and I was quite surprised to hear him spend so much energy denouncing Iran’s theocratic regime and Iranian society’s inadequate progress on women’s lib. Afaict Marandi’s point is that such arguments are justification for war and that while Western countries are actively supporting Israel’s extermination of Palestinians while Iran actively opposes it, Western intellectuals should be criticizing own government, not Iran.

   Marandi was unhappy about how Western leftists seem to claim the monopoly on revolution, only they would know how to do it right and an Islamic revolution would be doing it wrong.
   1. vidimi March 19, 2026 at 8:49 am

      I can’t stand Varoufakis, who is often featured here, for this reason. Very vocal about his support for regime change in Iran, Syria, and sheds crocodile tears for Palestinians in Gaza. The Greek Owen Jones.
      1. leaf March 19, 2026 at 9:14 am

         If I recall correctly Chris Hedges, at the time of Assad’s fall during an interview with Alastair Crooke, was also pretty supportive of ousting Assad. I don’t think either Hedges or Varoufakis have commented much on the HTS government or the ongoing sectarian violence. I suppose they see it as ok since Western governments support it. Almost makes one wonder if it’s all part of some controlled opposition
         1. Giovanni Barca March 19, 2026 at 4:52 pm

            Hedges is great in his own way I suppose but his blind spots are many. His stance on the Yugoslav Wars of Succession was not visibly different from the Samantha Powers That Be and beiing Presbyterian perhaps the good reverend envies the litiurgies of the high church prots and the ancient churches because it seems he has to name all the idpol wretches of the earth each time he names one. But he seems to be a fellow of courage and integrity and his guest list has become quite wide ranging, so cheers to his gloomy calvinist self.
            1. Pearl Rangefinder March 20, 2026 at 7:39 am

               I think that has to do with where Hedge’s stances come from, which earlier in his career was usually on the front lines of these conflicts. Like in Bosnia, he was based in Sarajevo during the siege, which suffice to say, would not have been a pretty sight. I don’t think you can live through that and not want to intervene and put a stop to it, especially earlier in his career when Hedges might have still believed that the US was a force for good. People like Powers, by contrast, are just MIC ghouls who exist to create justifications for Empire and spend their careers sitting in a nice cushy office far away from the bloodbaths they promote.

               Great writer all around though, even if a touch on the ‘dour’ side! I had the pleasure of meeting him years ago, and he really gives off the vibes of someone who has seen it all, and in his case the especially grim parts of humanity. I highly recommend his book “War Is a Force that Gives Us Meaning”, it really explores how war affects people’s psychology on an individual and national level, and how being in warzones as a correspondent can (surprisingly) become almost addictive vs the “mundane” experience of coming back home.
   2. lyman alpha blob March 19, 2026 at 9:12 am

      Varoufakis comes across lately as trying to be critical of western elites, but no so critical that he stops getting invited to the good parties. I was surprised last year when I asked a leftist friend in Greece her opinion of him. Turns out she had been a student of his, didn’t have much respect for him at all, and considered him just another capitalist. I’m starting to see why she had that opinion. Maybe “champagne socialist” is an apt description.
      1. vao March 19, 2026 at 9:40 am

         In France it is “caviar leftist” (“gauche caviar”).
   3. Pearl Rangefinder March 19, 2026 at 9:59 am

      I don’t really find his dislike of the clerical regime all that surprising?…Varoufakis has mentioned more than once how the Clerics, once they took power in Iran after 1980, made a point to exterminate the Leftist and Communist opposition in Iran (who helped bring the clerical regime to power BTW), and therefore they are no friends of Leftists. He views the Shah regime as fascist, imposed by the American and British overthrow of Mossadegh, and that Iran would have been a thriving liberal democracy by now had that not happened. It might be somewhat personal connection for him also, as he’s mentioned before that he had a (communist) friend in school who was killed by SAVAK before the 1979 revolution; the Clerics who ruled afterwards weren’t at all different in that regard.

      He gave a lengthy monologue a week ago on his Econoclasts show that he does for UnHerd that explains his thinking as well as his understanding of modern Iranian history, and why they are not necessarily friends of Leftists: (starting @ the 20 minute mark) Iran just showed China exactly how to beat the West – Varoufakis & Munchau

      at 26:40 from the same segment, at 26:40 from the same segment, he explains why modern Iran’s economic model is essentially neoliberal in character.

      Now, how true that interpretation is? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
      1. Darthbobber March 19, 2026 at 10:58 am

         The left and communist opposition didn’t intend to bring the clerics to power, but their tactical decisions (opposing all of the efforts of more secular interim governments until they and the clerics were the only factions still standing) made that the most likely result. I suspect they thought their considerable strength in Tehran was a measure of their strength in Iran. It wasn’t. French leftist movements in the past have confused Paris with France in similar fashion, with similar results.
   4. Kontrary Kansan March 19, 2026 at 11:18 am

      Varoufakis is a Euro-version of Obama: seductive smooth-talker full of pomp and circumlocution. I’d begun admiring his critique of the fragility of a German-dominated EU and its viciously destructive “resolution” of the Greek debt debacle.
      I recall his condemning Russia for invading Ukraine early in the war. I had imagined up to that point he might have had a more nuanced view that took US/NATO procations into account.
      His Diem25 advertises that they hold to radical views not expressed elsewhere. After listening to streamed sessions for a year or so I, discouraged, concluded that they resemble nothing so much as bourgeois cafe-liberals.
   5. In Cold Chud March 19, 2026 at 12:41 pm

      Thank you for reminding me that it was Varoufakis! I was listening last night as well, and was trying to remember who it had been, having been following the antiwar independent media covfefe pretty much nonstop, outside of work. It’s heartening to see that others here regard him as a bit of a windbag. (Aside from his sanewashing of Trump trade policy, he seems to fall into the same trap as a lot of other “critics” of tech–that it will do what its boosters claim, but that it’s bad.)
      1. .Tom March 19, 2026 at 2:03 pm

         +1 for covfefe. Made me lol. Correctly used too! Let’s not forget covfefe.

         I’m still grateful for his explanations of certain economic history and europolitics.
         1. In Cold Chud March 19, 2026 at 4:16 pm

            I’m glad you weren’t disappointed by the covfefe. True, I do recall he pushed back against the whole, “The Greeks are just indolent, Southern Europeans who borrowed a bunch of money thinking they wouldn’t have to pay it back” narrative.
9. Carla March 19, 2026 at 8:57 am

   Re: Chicago City Council Calls On Congress to Pass Medicare for All — the cities of Cleveland and Cleveland Heights passed essentially the same resolution two years ago. Nobody noticed, and in fact, despite being a long-time rustbelt M4A activist who celebrated those wins myself at the time, I had to be reminded. Basic human needs, who gives a s**t? We’ve got AI, Epstein, a collapsing climate and WWIII to worry about.
10. The Rev Kev March 19, 2026 at 9:12 am

    “$200 Oil No Longer Crazy Idea as Middle East Supply Collapses”

    Well there is good news and bad news if that happens. The good news is that it would probably drop down afterwards to a lower level. The bad news is that this would be because so many factories and industries would have been forced to shut down for good because of that high price reducing oil demand. That’s not good.
    1. Wukchumni March 19, 2026 at 10:28 am

       An average price of $7.77 per gallon for go juice in the USA could constitute a ‘Jackpot’.
       1. Lefty Godot March 19, 2026 at 1:36 pm

          When it’s gotten much up over $4 a gallon here in New England in times past, the whole economy has started to crumble. I imagine at that point the price in California stations is probably double that amount.
    2. Es s Ce Tera March 19, 2026 at 12:59 pm

       From an environmental perspective I wonder if we’re moving towards another early days of COVID situation and an another opportunity to see global emissions drop due to vehicles not moving. I’m happy for factories and industries to shut, just let me quickly order some stuff first.
11. Tom67 March 19, 2026 at 9:46 am

    FWIW: I was in Kaiserslautern (K-Town in US army parlance) last weekend. I talked to a guy who was in his Fifties and had lived all his life in the air corridor of the US air base. He told me the noise was the worst he could remember. Worse than Iraq. He claimed that airplane after airplane they are transporting wounded from the middle east to the military hospital in Weilersbach. I asked him how he knew. He answered everybody knew in K-Town as thousands of Germans work for the US as electricians, fire fighters a.s.o. and you can´t hide such things. You are not allowed to talk about what happens on the base but word gets around.
    1. t March 19, 2026 at 11:02 am

       I’m wondering if families are trying to get together on Facebook or something, but not enough to create accounts and go looking.
12. Butch March 19, 2026 at 10:04 am

    I read the “How Much a Dollar Cost” piece yesterday, unsure how I found it. It’s a scary future hopefully cut short.
    “We build some of the most expensive data centers on the planet in the most strategically volatile region on the planet, announce a new security paradigm that hinges on their proliferation and protection, and then launch a war against a country next door. Iran’s IRGC said it targeted the Bahrain facility specifically because AWS hosts US military and intelligence workloads.”
    Thank you Conor, it deserves wider publicity than I can give it. Death to Pax Silica.
13. Wukchumni March 19, 2026 at 10:18 am

    Heat Dome:

    Last day plying my traits on skid row in Vail where its gonna be 67 degrees on the slopes in a less than memorable season for the ski industry in the mountain west.

    Was drinking snappy cocktails in the bar of a ritzy hotel near the resort and a bartender related that they had a 65% cancellation rate this winter on lodging, due to so little snow on the ground.
    1. Wukchumni March 19, 2026 at 10:55 am

       p.s.

       Irony isn’t worth a bucket of warm spit, as the name of the parents is Burns…

       A family are suing a US ski resort claiming the hot chocolate it sold them was too … hot.

       The lawsuit in California says that when Brittany Burns and Joshua Moran Burns took a mid-morning break from skiing with their 5-year-old daughter, they stopped for a drink at a cafe at the swanky Heavenly Mountain Resort.

       The suit alleges that after spraying whipped cream on top of the beverage, the server slid the drink “directly to the minor” without a lid.

       When the child tried to drink it, the “excessively and unnecessarily hot” liquid spilt inside her ski suit, scalding her chest and abdomen.

       The complaint, which seeks damages for medical expenses, loss of past and future income and “loss of enjoyment in life”, claims the resort and its staff were negligent.

       They “knew and should have known that such hot beverages posed a great hazard of causing just this type of incident and injuries”.

       Roger Dreyer, a personal injury attorney in Sacramento who is representing the Burns family, said the youngster has been left with permanent scars from the incident, which happened two years ago.

       He said that while people going to ski resorts assume a level of risk because of the sport, this case is different.

       https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/family-sues-us-ski-resort-claiming-hot-chocolate-was-too-hot/LJXVCGJGJVBCHMWS54AIMAE36Q/
       1. Garry March 19, 2026 at 3:17 pm

          A landmark legal ruling against McDonald’s in New Mexico in 1994 established something of a precedent for Americans suing fast food companies when 79-year-old Stella Liebeck was awarded over US$2.8 million after spilling hot coffee on herself.

          Although the award was reduced on appeal, the case has often been cited as an example of the need to reform US tort law.

          Derision towards Liebeck is always disheartening to read. That McDonald’s location was known to serve its coffee at a much higher temperature temperature than other locations (88°C causes third degree burns in three seconds). The poor 79-year-old woman in that case was only suing for her medical bills. She needed skin grafts and two years of medical treatment.
          1. John Wright March 19, 2026 at 3:49 pm

             See https://www.citizen.org/article/legal-myths-the-mcdonalds-hot-coffee-case/

             Much more nuanced than the “frivolous lawsuit” crowd pushed narrative.

             McDonalds knew of prior hot coffee injuries before this case, and the woman was truly injured by the coffee.
       2. jonhoops March 19, 2026 at 4:09 pm

          They should have asked for the magical non spilling Hot Chocolate like the latte served to AI-Bibi.
14. The Rev Kev March 19, 2026 at 10:28 am

    “US encourages Syrian action against Hezbollah, Damascus is hesitant, sources say”

    Probably not going to happen. Syria is still not stable and if he tried this it might start to fall apart. There is still trouble with the Allawites for example. Then there is the risk that Hezbollah or Iran might send a few missiles his way addressed personally to him. And if he did send his forces in they would probably get chewed up and they are the only thing keeping him in power. he will probably elect to sit this one out.
    1. Darthbobber March 19, 2026 at 11:01 am

       Pretty sure Israel will by no means welcome Syrian “help” in Southern Lebanon, whether theoretically friendly or not.
    2. Kouros March 19, 2026 at 3:48 pm

       Israel was kind enough to destroy as much of former Syrian Army’s assets as they could. As such, absent also Lybia’s arms caches, Syrian ISIS is left with little, and soon, maybe only with horses, camels, and swords to cross Iraq and attack Iran uphill…
15. The Rev Kev March 19, 2026 at 10:45 am

    “Italy Says Damaged Tanker ‘Could Explode’”

    Soooo, maybe it was not so smart for Mediterranean countries to help the Ukrainians and western spook agencies to blow up this tanker in the first place. Just sayin’.
16. expr March 19, 2026 at 10:56 am

    Possibly something for the Bezzle: I have seen this in several places, this seems to have the most detail:
    https://keubiko.substack.com/p/nasdaqs-shame/comments
    basically Musk IPOs Space X but only a small fraction, X, of shares are available
    Nasdaq adds SpaceX to the index not at the valuation of X shares but 5*X shares
    Funds etc. that track Nasdaq than have to buy SpaceX shares to have a fraction of the fund proportional to %*X shares more fun comes when the lockout period (where old holders can now sell shares. Read the whole thing for the details.
    1. ChrisFromGA March 19, 2026 at 11:21 am

       Whoa, nice find! Dayim, that sounds diabolical. And no doubt, the template for the OpenAI IPO. They’re going to stuff that turd burger down the throat of every boomer and Gen-X-er’s 401k.

       Time to get out of all passive index funds, note to self.
    2. lyman alpha blob March 19, 2026 at 1:08 pm

       Couple things come to mind here –

       First is this Harper’s article about how passive investing in index funds is what makes the number constantly go up as billions of dollars from 401K investors gets injected weekly and managers are required to buy moar – https://harpers.org/archive/2024/06/what-goes-up-andrew-lipstein-401k-doomsday-index-fund-catastrophe/ The question is whether that produces a realistic valuation or a gross market distortion. I wasn’t sure I bought all the arguments in the article that it was a distortion, but after reading your link, I’m more inclined to think so since Musk definitely seems to want to profit off of these index fund requirements.

       I may not be understanding everything perfectly, but it also brings to mind how crypto investors are able to make the number go up. They way I understood it, Sam Bankman Fried created his own coin but only a small percentage of coins were available on the float. SBF himself held on to the rest. The punters would buy which caused the price to jump, especially with such a small percentage of overall “assets” being available for purchase. That drove the value of the vast majority of the crypto SBF held into the stratosphere (on paper at least) and he could then use this asset valuation to take out loans in real money, which he used among other things to purchase members of Congress. Sounds like Musk might be trying something similar if he’s only allowing a small % of stock on the float.
    3. Mikel March 19, 2026 at 2:36 pm

       The word is indeed getting out about that.
       I posted this a few days ago, covers some of the ground in the link and more:
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rS3fTbC7TE/
       SpaceX IPO Scandal – Patrick Boyle
17. SDB1 March 19, 2026 at 11:24 am

    Re: Conflicts Forum essay on Netanyahu changing Israeli war goals. To summarise, Iran War ennobled (but also downgraded at threat level) from existential military campaign to new partnership with US to transform geopolitics of ME eg building of pipelines as alternative to Strait of Hormuz. At this level, “it is much easier to swallow local difficulties, delays, complications and uncertainty.”

    Will Trump adopt Netanyahu normalisation strategy and fold it into his Board of Peace mission? So, periodic bombing campaigns against Iran’s IRGC (as per Israel’s “mowing the lawn” operations against Hamas in Gaza). Combined with development of ME reconstruction fund. War and peace at same time, a new Orwellian wrinkle.
18. Rolf March 19, 2026 at 11:40 am

    From Politico’s piece Inside the White House plan to sell the Iran war online,

    A second senior White House official who is also closely involved in the video-making effort described it as a collegial, creative endeavor. “We’re over here just grinding away on banger memes, dude,” said the person, also granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There’s an entertainment factor to what we do. But ultimately, it boils down to the fact that no one has ever attempted to communicate with the American public this way before.”

    I had no idea that senior WH staff were this astute. So the plan is to lower the minimum draft and voting age to 11 in order to grab the yuge 4chan TruMAGA block? Get those middle school FPS gamers over to the ME? Good to know.
    1. Kouros March 19, 2026 at 3:51 pm

       “ultimately, it boils down to the fact that no one has ever attempted to communicate with the American public this way before”. I beg to differ. “Idiocracy” has become a documentary by now…
19. pjay March 19, 2026 at 11:56 am

    Please excuse this, but I’m having some weird experiences trying to post or edit comments here today. Just testing. Thanks.
    1. Yves Smith March 19, 2026 at 12:17 pm

       Sorry for your difficulty, but you are the only one reporting that sort of issue. A single case typically means it is local.
       1. pjay March 19, 2026 at 12:24 pm

          Thanks for the reply. Part of the weirdness was that I had no trouble commenting on your Iran post, just here at Links. I’ll try again later.
          1. lyman alpha blob March 19, 2026 at 12:56 pm

             I did have a similar experience yesterday. All of my comments have gone briefly to moderation before posting in recent weeks, but yesterday some went to moderation and some just got eaten by skynet. I’d hit ‘post comment’ and didn’t get any moderation message and they never appeared.

             Seems OK today though, so maybe it was just me yesterday too.
          2. Jason Boxman March 19, 2026 at 12:57 pm

             On very rare occasions, I’ll post and the page reloads and it’s gone, I assume something about the content got rejected by the filters.
             1. tegnost March 19, 2026 at 5:48 pm

                2 things I’ve had work ( i think they just get lost in the backroom sometimes) first is go back a window and sometimes the comment is still there, copy, delete and repost, changing a few words because the system thinks it posted. It works sometimes. The second is try to make another reply to the post with the lost comment, and lo and behold sometimes there it is. This works well if the edit window doesn’t show up.
                There is more moderation, I don’t take it personally and figure it’s to help defend against the scrapers
                1. debug March 19, 2026 at 8:08 pm

                   Not directed at any one in particular, but me, myself and I…

                   Just hanging it here off tegnost for convenience…

                   I, personally, have hit a wrong key or clicked on the wrong box when trying to leave a comment, here and elsewhere, and not noticed it until things went wrong for me. It is surprisingly easy to do by accident. And I’ve even been known to hit the wrong button two or three times thinking “I can’t be wrong, it’s the way I’ve always done it!” when in fact it wasn’t the way at all.

                   Specifically, after I’ve entered my comment in the box, I proof-read it in the final format where it appears after the boxes, and I accidentally hit the ‘reply’ button after that, thinking I’m gonna ‘post’ it that way. Nope. It doesn’t work that way! Gotta go back up and hit the “Post Comment” box!

                   In the IT trade, we have an acronym that sometimes describes the problem. PEBCAK – pronounced peb-kack – Problem Exists Between Chair And Keyboard. LOL!

                   Not saying stuff doesn’t happen — just that sometimes it could be an accidental PEBCAK error. These errors strike when you least expect them, in my considerable experience of messing things up!

                   Stay safe, everybody!
20. Jason Boxman March 19, 2026 at 1:02 pm

    Besides the War and ongoing Pandemic, we have lol

    The Weather Is Getting Wilder, and Some See a Dire Signal in the Data (NY Times via archive.ph)

    Scientists who study global warming are currently wrestling with a question that, while seemingly technical, is profoundly consequential: Is climate change accelerating?

    The debate spilled into the open this month, after new research found that the rate of global warming has nearly doubled over the last decade. The findings set scientific circles buzzing, and not all researchers agree with the conclusion.

    But while the debate about accelerating global warming remains unsettled, a growing number of scientists do agree on another troubling development: The effects of climate change are intensifying in ways that have surprised even experts.

    Many of the consequences of global warming — such as more intense storms, warming oceans and melting glaciers — are arriving faster and more powerfully than many scientists had expected.

    Someone here commented some months or a year ago, that some of these Climate models had an assumption of linearity; and clearly we’re finding that isn’t really the case. Oops.
    1. t March 19, 2026 at 5:02 pm

       That might have been me.
       Humans like to think that change is linear, that makes it predictable and fosters the illusion that change is controllable.

       Comforting illusions are nice, I still have a few around here somewhere…
21. Jason Boxman March 19, 2026 at 1:18 pm

    This is why we’re losing everywhere. The elite are too busy giving themselves a hand to care that it’s all burning down

    From Federal Cyber Experts Thought Microsoft’s Cloud Was “a Pile of Shit.” They Approved It Anyway.

    By early 2020, Melinda Rogers, Justice’s deputy chief information officer, made the decision official and soon deployed GCC High across the department.

    It was a milestone for all involved. Rogers had ushered the Justice Department into the cloud, and Microsoft had gained a significant foothold in the cutthroat market for the federal government’s cloud computing business.

    Moreover, Rogers’ decision placed GCC High on the FedRAMP Marketplace, the government’s influential online clearinghouse of all the cloud providers that are under review or already authorized. Its mere mention as “in process” was a boon for Microsoft, amounting to free advertising on a website used by organizations seeking to purchase cloud services bearing what is widely seen as the government’s cybersecurity seal of approval.

    That April, GCC High landed at FedRAMP’s office for review, the final stop on its bureaucratic journey to full authorization.

    wait for it

    Rogers, who was hired by Microsoft in 2025, declined to be interviewed. In response to emailed questions, the company provided a statement saying that she “stands by the rigorous evaluation that contributed to” her authorization of GCC High. A spokesperson said there was “absolutely no connection” between her hiring and the decisions in the GCC High process, and that she and the company complied with “all rules, regulations, and ethical standards.”

    (bold mine)

    Gets Microsoft’s insecure cloud trash into the government, then gets her payoff.
    1. ThirtyOne March 19, 2026 at 4:09 pm

       Remember the MS ad campaign from the ’90s?
       “Where do you want to go today?”
       “To Redmond, with a flamethrower.”

       https://wiki.c2.com/?WhereDoYouWantToGoToday
22. Tom Stone March 19, 2026 at 1:29 pm

    If Trump needs $200 Billion to continue murdering children in Iran he should ask his Zionist buddies for the $.
    Elon, Miriam, Bill Ackman, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, Palmer Lucky…it’s a long list and it would take less than 10% of their wealth to continue funding “Operation Epstein Fury”, or is that “Operation Epic Fuckup”?

    I’m actually feeling better about Newsome becoming president, in the past I have said I would not piss on him if he was afire, that has changed.
    Now I’d be happy to piss on him even if he wasn’t afire.
23. Tom Stone March 19, 2026 at 1:47 pm

    Regular gas is $6.10 per gallon this morning in Santa Rosa.
    1. Socal Rhino March 19, 2026 at 8:11 pm

       $6.01 in San Clemente yesterday afternoon. Haven’t been by a station today.
    2. ChrisRUEcon March 20, 2026 at 3:04 am

       #Yikes
24. Ann March 19, 2026 at 2:00 pm

    Vancouver, BC is closing out first snow-free winter in 43 years.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/11737489/vancouver-no-snow-winter/
    1. CanCyn March 19, 2026 at 3:00 pm

       Whoah! And here in Eastern Ontario we’ve had a snowier winter than we’ve had in years. Snow on the ground right now and more coming over the weekend,
       1. Kouros March 19, 2026 at 3:53 pm

          Watch out for flash melting…
       2. jrkrideau March 19, 2026 at 7:21 pm

          And no ice! It’s been a not bad winter. I had ~5cm of snow on the garden table three days ago.
25. flora March 19, 2026 at 2:05 pm

    re: antidote du jour.

    Is NC ostichizing me? oh no…! / ;)
26. Charles Carroll March 19, 2026 at 2:55 pm

    How Much a Dollar Cost ?
    Maybe the World should hope that the Straits of Hormuz stay closed. Here is a disturbing article from the Tech Bubble that explains how PAX SILICA – an American-led project that would secure control over supply chains for artificial intelligence and the chips to run it, at the same time creating a new dependency regime and tech stack that could be backed up with the threat of violence (economic or otherwise). The name, after all, tells us everything we need to know, as in Pax Romana or Pax Britannica or Pax Americana. The system involves the immense wealth that the gulf states get on their hydrocarbons getting recycled not into US treasury securities, but into GPUs and data centers and AI models and the kill chains that they power. This immense wealth is opaque and is not subject to limitations placed by regular systems like Norway’s wealth fund or the EU.

    The US and Israel have been developing this systems during the last 20 years fighting wars in the Middle East. They use this system to maximize the extermination of the Palestinians. They are using it to fight Russia in the Ukrainian war. This system has contradictions as in the US war against Iran which closes the Straits of Hormuz and cuts off the gulf states’ income used to finance the system. The big contradiction is its goal to both lower the value of the dollar and increase the value of the dollar.
27. Jason Boxman March 19, 2026 at 3:14 pm

    Oops

    Copper joins gold in broad commodities sell-off. There’s a worrying reason behind it (CNBC)

    Both precious and industrial metals fell in Thursday trading as investors are starting to worry this oil shock will go on long enough to cause an economic slowdown or recession.

    An unusual stagflation scenario is occurring with rates rising on inflation fears, while economic growth expectations are being lowered.

    But some warn that the possibilities of stagflation are low, despite investors’ trades.

    Beginning to get the message, eh?

    It’s interesting that the tariff tantrum dropped the market about 20%, rapidly.

    It is taking traders a much longer time to wrap their heads around the fact that America, with the greatest military ever ™, is getting schooled by a supposedly 3rd rate power of tribals, and that the government in Tehran, not Washington, decides how and when this ends.

    When the clue stick finally hits home, look out below!
28. Jason Boxman March 19, 2026 at 3:32 pm

    In another sighting of this timeline is stupid, are these devices wirelessly accessible? What happens when the adoption of “agentic workflows” means this software is mostly written by LLMs? And why is it there is never any criminal liability for individual executives?

    She Died After Her Pacemaker Battery Failed. Its Maker Knew of Problems for Years. (NY Times; paywalled)

    Pacemakers are surgically implanted devices that deliver an electric pulse to keep the heart beating at the right speed. They run on batteries meant to last as long as a decade or more. When batteries fail to deliver the necessary power, devices can switch into an irreversible emergency backup setting known as Safety Mode, which is designed to keep the heart beating until a person can get a new pacemaker. Safety Mode can be dangerous for patients who depend on their pacemakers to constantly keep their hearts beating, because it can sometimes fail to engage.

    Last August, Boston Scientific updated its recall to expand the population of affected Accolade pacemakers to more than 1.3 million. To fix the issue, the company announced a workaround: Patients could receive a software update, which would periodically test their devices and alert doctors if the batteries were at risk of triggering Safety Mode and needed to be replaced. On Thursday the company amended the recall again, updating the software further and expanding the affected population to 1.6 million people.
29. LilD March 19, 2026 at 5:36 pm

    Here in San Luis Obispo, previous high temp ever recorded in March was 91
    Tuesday, 97
    That record didn’t last long as today it is 99
30. Lefty Godot March 19, 2026 at 7:41 pm

    Re: Les Leopold and “Working People Are Leaving MAGA”–those working people are not going to go over to the Democrats as long as the Democrats keep featuring (1) gun control, (2) pushing woke/DEI/LGBTQIA+ into publicly funded institutions, and (3) aggressive foreign interventions all around the world. Even setting aside that (1) is violating the Constitution, it’s pointlessly closing the barn door when the horse is in the next county, because the number of guns already out there is huge, and the real problem that makes them dangerous is popular culture’s glorification of violence as the way to solve all difficult problems. Which ties to (3), because the violent interventions we involve US troops in abroad bring the violence back home when those troops return, and the alpha male chest thumping of leaders who threaten and bully other nations (with the ominous phrase “all options are on the table” always prominent) sets the ultimate bad example for American men. As for (2), people are more often tolerant or apt to keep their prejudices to themselves when they don’t feel the opposite point of view is being forced down their throats, funded by their taxes, and used to brand them as “haters” and otherwise single them out. The Democrats would have to stop pushing those three (currently core) stances to attract MAGA expatriates. (3) would be the hardest for them to give up, because they have been a party of foreign interventionists for over a century now. But if they could move away from those stances maybe they could start pushing pro-working class measures again. And if they won’t, maybe it really is time for another party to relegate them to the dustbin with the Whigs and Know Nothings.
31. Glen March 19, 2026 at 8:56 pm

    Here’s to living in the bizzaro backwards world:

    Day of Infamy: FDR and Pearl Harbor
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNDnEb6sbU0

    Trump brings up Pearl Harbor while meeting with Japanese prime minister
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7c8KskKhr-w

    “Well one thing, you don’t want to signal too much, you know?” Mr. Trump said. “When we go in, we went in very hard. And we didn’t tell anyone about it because we wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? OK? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor? OK? Right?”

    “We had to surprise them, and we did,” the president said of Iran. “… If I go and tell everybody about it, there’s no longer a surprise.”

    But then, America was torturing people in W’s wars for what was a war crime in WW2:

    New Documents Show the US Called Waterboarding Torture During World War II
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/12/waterboarding-torture-japan-world-war-ii/

    So I guess I should not be surprised by this, I was pretty much told to shut up when I brought this up back in the day when everything about CIA waterboarding came out.

    But even W didn’t sneak attack another country while negotiating a treaty with them – that seems to be, at this point, almost a Trumpian trademark.

    But it does lead one to ask – be it foe or friend, how do you do a deal with someone that does that?
32. Jason Boxman March 19, 2026 at 10:45 pm

    The DoJ, together with the FBI, announced charges against three executives of SuperMicro (SMCI) for Conspiracy to Violate the Export Control Reform Act.
    Since at least early 2024, SMCI’s executives built a sophisticated, systematic scheme to illegally divert billions of dollars worth of high-performance AI servers containing restricted Nvidia GPUs to China, using a pass-through company in Southeast Asia to evade U.S. export controls.

    Seems big news

    https://x.com/kakashiii111/status/2034772929016152537?s=46
33. lone plateau March 20, 2026 at 3:02 am

    Heartfelt thank you for the Sick Times link to the Long Covid Treatment Guide. As a longtime long Covid (couldn’t resist) sufferer this is a most valuable resource. Your coverage over the years through articles and links has been a huge help to the long covid community. Thanks again.
34. Jason Boxman March 20, 2026 at 6:27 am

    Delve, a YC-backed compliance startup that raised $32 million, has been accused of systematically faking SOC 2, ISO 27001, HIPAA, and GDPR compliance reports for hundreds of clients.

    More possible fraud. Used an LLM. Of course. Also Forbes 30 under 30 founders lol.

    https://x.com/ohryansbelt/status/2034752685631574022?s=46

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