[This Iran war post is launching before complete because real-world tasks. I expect it to be done by 8:30 AM EDT at the latest. If you are an early arrival, please refresh your browser then and re-skim]
The Iran war is briefly in a less frenzied phase, with Trump talking up non-extant negotiations to buy time, before what, exactly? As we’ll soon cover, the kinetic war is very much underway and the US is still moving forces to the theater, consistent with a possible ground assault.
As the Bloomberg landing page as of 6:00 AM EDT shows,1 Mr. Market is all too willing to buy any excuse to keep asset prices up, even taking serial fabulist Trump’s barker-patter that yessiree bob, those desperate Iranians are willing to wheel and deal, at face value.
And its high-level recap:
This cheery reaction comes despite Iranian officials making clear their demands are non-negotiable, and include a US military exit from the Middle East, reparations, and Israel neutrality, which they have sometimes formulated as having a new security architecture in the Middle East. Iran’s government and semi-official voices, such as Professor Seyed Marandi, have become more explicit (perhaps recognizing Western refusal to digest clear and consistent messages) that they intend to prosecute the war until the US/Israel (or Gulf state) will to fight is broken or they have effected a major change in dynamics. The recent formula is that they have to establish new facts on the ground.
However, in fairness to Bloomberg, its big headline does make it clear that it is the US that is seeking a way out of the war and in its take on the fifteen point plan when that story hit the wires, added “A reminder that Iran has continued to publicly say it’s not engaged in negotiations with the US” and in a later take:
Tehran, meanwhile, has been signaling little willingness to compromise, at least in public. On Wednesday, Iran’s armed forces added to a stream of messaging that ruled out ceasefire talks with the Trump administration.
According to state-run IRIB News:
The level of your internal conflicts has reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves.
It added that Iran wouldn’t allow oil and energy prices to return to their previous levels until all threats against the country are fully removed.
I had been inclined not to track down the 15 points, since the Iranians have pre-rejected them. But Rev Kwv put the list in comments right after the partial post first went live. They confirm that the US is not even attempting to negotiate but has simply hit the pause button to calm investor nerves as Trump continues to wrestle with the Iran war tar baby. Rev Kev’s sighting (note we had addressed the snapback issue in our earlier text, per below):
Fourteen of the 15 points in that 15 point peace plan have been revealed by the Israelis and it amounts to a surrender document. Like with the Ukrainian war, it was a result of the US negotiating with itself-
‘1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.
2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.
5. The Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency, and oversight inside Iran.
7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”
8. Iran must cease the funding, direction, and arming of its regional proxies.
9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.
10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.
11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.In return, Iran would benefit as follows:
12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
14. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.’I would imagine that the 15th point would be that Iran has to pay back the US for the cost of all the bombs dropped on it or some such.
To add to Rev Kev’s observation:
1. Notice the US is again treating its European/NATO allies as vassals. The US is not a party to these international sanctions, as in the JCPOA snapback, which in theory prevented their expiration. Trump had the US leave the JCOPA. So Trump is acting as if he can trade rights that are not his (not that the E-3 and any other that are still observing the JCPOA sanctions would necessarily be unwilling to drop them if there was an end to the conflict, but it seems pretty certain that no one on Team Trump bothered to get their consent.
2. These bullet points do not necessarily commit the US to ending its sanction on Iran. I read “sanctions imposed by the international community” as JCPOA sanctions. The US imposed its own illegal and more punitive sanctions on Iran after it quit the JCPOA.
Israel is playing along with the negotiation fakery; the pretense is that it’s not clear if Israel is on board but Netanyahu has tasked Ron Dermer to “monitor” the talks that are taking place in Trump’s equivocal head. Many have pointed out that Trump simply pushed back the deadline for his threat to hit Iran power facilities hard till after the US market close on Friday, so this could be yet mare kabuki to buy time for get more forces and assets in place for the barmy ground invasion plan.
Even so, more and more reality is seeping into mainstream media reporting. The early part of this Janta Ka update includes a clip from CNN where the presenter states that Iran views Trump’s negotiation outreach as capitulation:
And CNN is reasonably in the loop with Iran:
NEW: There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days but nothing that reached the level of full on negotiations, a senior Iranian source tells me.
Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out…
— Frederik Pleitgen (@fpleitgenCNN) March 24, 2026
Even more striking is a new Telegraph article, which they made the lead item in their daily e-mail, Iran now has a clear path to victory. The fact of this piece and this headline is remarkable because the Torygraph has, as far as I can tell, never exhibited any sympathy for nations or peoples on the wrong side of Israel’s land grabbing and ethnic cleansing, let alone criticized the genocide in Gaza. Moreover, as the leading and most hard core voice of the Conservative Party, it would have in theory have political incentives to criticize Starmer for keeping the UK largely out of the Iran conflict.
On top of that, the article by David Blair is light by Western press standards on Orientialism and what heretofore has been obligatory Iran denigration. He does depict Iran as potentially winning a qualified victory, as in achieved at high cost, but the story ticks off the vectors of Iranian dominance. Key parts:
Yet, incredible though it may sound, Iran’s remaining leaders now have a clear path to what they would see as victory in this war.
That route, paved with Donald Trump’s hubris, carries four vital signposts: survival, control, revenue and capability.
1. Survival
Iran’s regime regards its own survival as victory….
Trump no longer talks of regime change except in the narrow sense of finding a supposedly pliable figure from inside the Islamic Republic willing to deal with America.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, still denounces the Iranian regime as “lunatics” bent on “wiping out Western civilisation”, but even he concedes the possibility of the same “lunatics” staying in power….
2. Control
Hence the regime was able to reach the second signpost on its road to victory: retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery of the global economy.
By halting the passage of almost 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil, Iran has caused the greatest disruption of global energy supplies in history….
And Iran’s likely terms for any deal with America bring us to the third signpost.
3. Revenue
The IRGC has already used its de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz to decide which tankers may pass and which may not.
Iran’s own oil exports have naturally enjoyed safe passage and countries such as China and India are believed to have cut bilateral deals to allow their tankers through the Strait. This has come at a price: Iran’s reported fee is $2m per tanker.Iran’s own oil exports have naturally enjoyed safe passage and countries such as China and India are believed to have cut bilateral deals to allow their tankers through the Strait. This has come at a price: Iran’s reported fee is $2m per tanker.
Fearing still greater mayhem on the energy market, America has even waived its sanctions to allow Iran to sell about 140 million barrels of oil currently at sea. Trump has since suggested that America and Iran might “jointly control” the Strait.
That raises a tantalising prospect for the regime: a new and American-approved – and therefore sanctions-proof – source of revenue from the Strait…
But if Trump is willing to grant Iran some form of control over the Strait as part of settling this conflict, that opens a whole range of possibilities. The regime might hope to gain a new source of funds that it never enjoyed before.
That revenue leads to a final signpost.
Let us interject: even though Blair can discern the contours of US/Israel defeat, he still cannot wrap his mind around the emerging reality. Iran does not have to give a rat’s ass about US sanctions if it can maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. It is showing it can take payment in yuan and the US can pound sand.
Bizarrely, there has been virtually no media acknowledgement of how China is giving Iran critical support to Iran by defying the US and allowing Iran to use its payment systems. China has a legal defense: both Russia and China objected when the so-called E-3 (France, the UK, and Germany) tried to activate the snapback provisions in the JCPOA to extend economic sanctions on Iran. Both superpowers took the position in the UN that the snapback activation was improper and along with that, further sanctions on Iran.
Back to the Telegraph:
4. Capability
If the Iranian regime were to come out of this war not only in power but free to profit from the Strait in a way it never did before, it could use that money to restore the missile and nuclear capabilities that America and Israel have successfully destroyed.
Last Thursday (March 19), Netanyahu described how the two allies were “wiping out [Iran’s] industrial base in a way that we didn’t do before” and pulverising not only the Islamic Republic’s missiles but the “factories that produce the components to make these missiles”.
Benjamin Netanyahu has conceded the possibility of the Iranian regime staying in power Credit: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Yet if the regime survives, it could in principle rebuild all of the above, perhaps aided by a new flow of cash from the Strait.It would take years for Iran’s leaders to reconstruct their missiles and nuclear plants…
Again, this slant ignores that the harm that Iran has suffered is overwhelmingly to civilian infrastructure and not to its military capability. Even recent son-of-Vietnam report from the Department of Defense2, full of figures of purported US results, show that. Earlier this week, it claimed it had hit over 80,000 civilian sites, versus over 8,000 military targets, as in an order of magnitude less. And that charitably assumes the military hits were real. Scott Ritter and Chas Freeman have both described long-form massive over-counting of military “kills” in the Iraq conflicts.
So where does that leave things?
Yesterday, Aurelien argued that Trump is trying to avoid what is called in finance a recognition event, as in having to mark down an overvalued to market:
The option of declaring victory and leaving is not open, because it’s the Iranians who will decide when and if the war stops. That leaves only two options: a humiliating climbdown, or something, anything, that will keep the conflict going, buy time, divert attention from Iranian missile attacks and just conceivably string things out until the regime collapses, as the Mossad still thinks it will, apparently. Since the first is impossible, the second selects itself. Bear in mind that it could be stretched over several weeks, as forces arrive and assemble, a few daring small-scale raids are carried out and more threats and promises are made. It’s the choice between certain failure and probable failure. Anything that keeps the ball in the air will do.
The wee problem is that Trump does not have the luxury of time. The longer he faffs around, the more severe and impacted the damage to the real economy of the loss of Gulf oil becomes. We’ve cited before how various real-economy checks, like data on US plantings and a food price index, is released on March 31 and April 1. More come between then and mid-May. So Trump cannot keep playing his “master of chaos” game all that much longer. Real world chaos will overpower him.
We’ll turn to the economic updates further below.
Independent military experts do not see any possible Administration plan with the forces it can deploy of having any hope of loosening Iran’s choke-hold over the Strait. Iran is likely well aware of the possibility of the most extreme thing the belligerents could attempt, of US forces moving shortly after an Israel tactical nuclear strike, and have responses prepared.
If we consider conventional options instead, the overwhelming consensus is that the best the US could achieve would be something akin to the Russians having captured Snake Island, a spot with limited strategic value where sustaining forces was impossible and they had to pull out.
And the overwhelming expert consensus is that the most likely outcome is a debacle. This would be largely to entirely a Special Forces operation, heavily reliant on helicopters to get forces in place. Those birds are very easy to take down.
And what happens if Iran captures servicemembers? In a fresh Judge Napolitano talk, former Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski mentioned in passing that soldiers are conscious of their post-Nuremburg legal exposure, that following orders does not justify the commission of war crimes. What if Iran tries US hostages? Recall that Russia has promised war crimes prosecutions after the Ukraine war is over. Would it support or participate in such an action if Iran had clear-cut evidence?
Mind you, there is in theory considerable upside to a massive US military misadventure, since it would be likely to play out pretty quickly. Mr. Market would freak out since the myth that the US forces could overpower those ragheads3 would be destroyed. Admittedly, the US and Israel could still engage in terrorism or Israel could deploy its nukes. But a ground operation would accelerate the pace of events.
And Iran is taking steps to increase transit through the Gulf with its developing system of letting approved carriers pass. From Lloyd’s List on the 23rd:
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly being diverted into Iranian territorial waters in what has been dubbed the “Tehran Toll Booth”, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is understood to be verifying vessel details and, in some cases, extolling a passage fee.
More than 20 vessels of over 10,000 dwt have thus far made the detour, which goes between Iran’s Qeshm and Larak Islands…
At least two vessels transiting through the strait are understood to have paid in exchange for safe passage, with one fee reported to have been around $2m.
While the Strait of Hormuz remains dramatically reduced as a result of the conflict, which has seen more than 20 maritime incidents involving commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure since February 28, the pace of vessel transits across the strait picked up over the weekend.
Analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence data reveals that at least 16 vessels have transited the strait since Friday. Thirteen vessels headed east out of the Middle East Gulf, while three entered westbound.
Another tanker owned by Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company has transited the Strait of Hormuz, becoming only the second to make an eastbound transit since the war in the region began nearly a month ago.
Liberia-flagged, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company-owned, long range two Abu Dhabi-III (IMO: 9489027) made the transit through the crucial chokepoint on March 19 and is now at anchorage off Vadinar, India, where it arrived on March 23.
Keep in mind that other reports indicate that it is nations and not carrier-owners that have been negotiating with Iran to secure passage. One imagines that any Iranian tolls will reflect Iran’s view of how culpable they are in having done damage.
But this development points to a whimper, not a bang, outcome for the Strait of Hormuz: that more and more states will knuckle under to accepting Iran’s terms for going in and out of the Gulf.
However, without belaboring the issue, insurers have to get on board with the new system, and the tone of Lloyd’s stories suggests they are mighty leery:
Iran doesn't even need to sink ships to win. Just the threat of attacks has caused insurance premiums to skyrocket and shipping companies to abandon the Strait of Hormuz. They are bleeding the global economy dry without firing a shot. pic.twitter.com/Dv2OHAKvuy
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 21, 2026
And there is always the possibility of a false flag to set back profitable-to-Iran normalization.
Further kinetic war updates. Aljazeera describes both new Iran and Hezbollah strikes into Israel and US/Israel attacks into Iran:
And on the economic front. The EU is retreating from its loud proclamation that it would stick with its plans to wean itself entirely from Russian energy. From RT in EU shelves Russian oil ban as Iran war rattles energy markets:
The EU has put plans on hold for a complete ban on Russian oil imports, news outlets have reported. The move comes amid renewed turbulence in energy markets driven by the war in the Middle East.
The draft law, part of the REPowerEU roadmap to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, had been tentatively scheduled for April 15 but has now been removed from the European Commission’s published work calendar, Euronews and Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Amusingly:
Tehran is now running an anti-jawboning oil campaign against the White House. https://t.co/0T6EHdhFvW
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 24, 2026
But on more sober notes:
Reader Ann flagged a BBC article, Oil at $150 will trigger global recession, says boss of financial giant BlackRock. The idea that oil prices reaching $150 being catastrophic is falls into “department of the obvious”. But having BlackRock say that may break some rose-colored glasses in investor-land.
And condition in many parts of Asia are getting dire. Kevin W cited a second BBC story, Everyday life in Asia is being upended by Iran war fuel crisis. Some highlights:
Arguably, nowhere has felt it more than Asia: nearly 90% of the oil and gas passing through the strait is bound for Asian countries…
Governments have ordered employees to work from home, cut the working week, declared national holidays and closed universities early in order to conserve their supplies.
Even China – which is thought to have reserves equivalent to three months of imports – is making adjustments, limiting a fuel price hike as citizens are faced with a 20% jump in price..
On Tuesday, the Philippines declared a national emergency in light of the conflict and “the resulting imminent danger posed upon the availability and stability of the country’s energy supply”….
Carlos Bragal Jr has seen his daily wage drop from 1,000 to 1,200 pesos ($16.60 to $19.92) for a 12-hour shift to just 200 to 500 pesos…
Carlos said..”If this continues, it will definitely kill us and our family.”..
It is not just the jeepney drivers fearing the future, however. Fishermen and farmers are also struggling with high fuel costs. Several vegetable farmers in Bulacan have already been forced to stop planting….
Sri Lanka has just emerged from a financial crisis which, in 2022, saw it run out of foreign reserves and unable to import essential items and buy enough fuel.
Now it is back on a more even keel. But aware of the risks, it has brought in a series of belt-tightening measures – including declaring Wednesdays a public holiday and bringing in fuel rationing.
But long queues at the pump to get your allowance are having their own knock-on effects.
“I didn’t go to work today,” says Nimal, a lawnmower operator from Colombo.
“We are fulfilling our daily needs with great difficulty. Because of [the queues]… I don’t even have time to attend to work….
In Myanmar – engulfed by civil war since May 2021 – the military-backed authorities have brought in an alternate day policy for private vehicles as it tries to conserve fuel….
In the western state of Gujurat, a shortage of gas rather than oil has seen the region’s ceramics industry shut down for the best part of a month.
With no end in sight to the Iran conflict, the 400,000 people employed in the trade have been left in limbo…
India has been hit hard by the strait’s closure. Roughly 60% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is imported, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
And it is not just factories struggling.
In Mumbai – a city of more than 22 million people – as many as a fifth of all hotels and restaurants fully or partially shut in the first weeks of March. Items which take longer to cook are absent from menus. Long queues have formed across the nation as people try to get their hands on gas cylinders, even as the government tries to calm fears of a shortage.
The only issue mentioned with respect to Thailand is TV presenters appearing in shirt rather than jackets to model keeping air conditioner settings at a higher level.
Due to the war taking up too much bandwidth, I am neglecting what looks like a slow-motion crisis in private credit. A good update:
And a final observation:
One advantage the Iranians have is that their entire elite seems to consist of 130 IQ polymath combat veterans with PhDs who stormed across minefields with fixed bayonets surrounded by poison gas back in the day and then spent 30 years studying philosophy, game theory,… https://t.co/GJFv6Xvuuj
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) March 24, 2026
See you tomorrow!
_____
1 We pay a lot of attention to Bloomberg reporting because any serious investor has a Bloomberg terminal, with the result that its updates and framing has a lot of sway with the group best able to check Trump, as his TACO after the Liberation Day market swoon attests.
2 I am choosing not to dignify the rebranding.
3 The West overwhelmingly does not understand that Iranians are not tribal Arabs but come from an ancient civilization that has a storied history of defeating great powers.
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Fourteen of the 15 points in that 15 point peace plan have been revealed by the Israelis and it amounts to a surrender document. Like with the Ukrainian war, it was a result of the US negotiating with itself-
‘1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.
2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.
5. The Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency, and oversight inside Iran.
7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”
8. Iran must cease the funding, direction, and arming of its regional proxies.
9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.
10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.
11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.
In return, Iran would benefit as follows:
12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
14. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.’
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/03/24/us-sends-iran-15-point-proposal-to-end-war-but-no-sign-tehran-is-interested-in-talks/
I would imagine that the 15th point would be that Iran has to pay back the US for the cost of all the bombs dropped on it or some such. Rumour control has it that Iran has replied with a three point plan-
1. Trump can take his 15-point peace plan.
2. He can then fold it into an origami shape with lots of sharp, pointy corners.
3. Trump can then shove that plan into a place where the sun don’t shine.
I am hoisting this back into the post proper. Thanks
these are, in practice, no different than what was offered in Switzerland.
what about frozen assets, Hezbollah, US bases? Iran would be insane to stop the war without addressing those points.
Don’t fight a land war in Asia; Don’t trust a person with elective plastic surgery (Kushner) lol
I read earlier, but forget where, that it’s a cut and paste of what was requested and rejected before the 12 day war.
We seem to be on the verge of ‘Brinkrupcy’.
Jesus fracking christ. – “‘‘tis but a scratch”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
Oh I don’t know. Somebody with a sense of humor might have rewritten 1 – 6 and 10 &11 only about Israel. One point would be a return to Israel’s 1948 borders and acknowledgement nothing outside that belongs to Israel, write the rest for both Israel and America. Add a demand not only for reparations for their bombing Iran, a full recognition that Hormuz is under Iranian control and that the US will remove all military actions and outposts in the Middle East. And then tell them what they get is an Israel that isn’t barer and less inhabitable than Gaza and Gulf States that can still fund American vanity projects. All on something permanent that would hurt more using your stated disposal method.
Not that I don’t think that isn’t the beginnings of Iranian demands, just that I honestly believe the Iranians need to spell things out for the US brain trust over and over for them to get it…especially as they become more desperate to leave.
Seen one failed 14 Points Plan, seen ’em all.
Trump’s been hitting the Nobel Peace Pipe again. Normally I’d want some of what he’s smoking, but it seems a little strong for my taste.
“Mr. Wilson, is that you?” asks Donald the Menace.
The Japanese proposals of Dec 7, 1941?
None of this accepts the messianic eschatology of Israel’s Eretz Israel Hashlema plan. The Trump regime isn’t capable of enforcing any plan and even if it could, Israel would just ignore it.
Netanyahu isn’t occupying the West Bank, Southern Lebanon, Southern Syria and Gaza for nothing – Iran is just the culmination of that.
And if you happen to be Jordanian, have a look at the Greater Israel map… any trace of a Jordan there? No?
I don’t think Iran is going to voluntarily go down the same road as Libya, especially after seeing how well capitulating to U.S. demands worked out for Gaddafi.
I have wondered about the following point-
’13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.’
My own guess is that this is a way to force the Russian specialists out of that plant which Russia helped build. Then after a time, they would demand that Iran use US fuel rods in that plant rather than ones from Russia and eventually the US would have defacto control of that plant.
It’s ludicrous to pretend that American assistance in civilian nuclear power is actually a concession on the US’ part. The Iranians already have an agreement with the Russians to build additional reactors.
I imagine if Iran’s Leadership was crazy enough to sign such a deal with Donald Trump, in very short order there really would be regime change in Iran.
NC keeps focused on cutting through the bs, that’s why we love this place.
It’s even more important when dealing with players that serve up piles of bs as a strategy to distract and confuse.
the depth and breadth of the discussion and analysis here is unparalleled – it is honestly almost thrilling with Yves tapping the commentariat to enrich her posts the way we are all now reaping the rewards of the community she has built up over decades.
surely there is nothing like it anywhere on the internet – many thanks to all of you.
I’m surprised that the USA did not include a 16th point of Iran removing the Azadi Tower in Tehran and replacing it with a 150ft statue of Trump.
And don’t forget allowing Trump to pick the Supreme Leader.
About, “Mr. Market is all too willing to buy any excuse to keep asset prices up.” We are living in the roaring twenties. It’s one thing if the Fed thinks the party should calm down but it seems hard for investors to accept that suddenly Iran is capable of ending the party.
The NASDAQ was at ~9,000 on 1/1/2020 and it peaked at ~23,400 by 2/10/2026. The Dow was ~19,000 in 1/1/2020 and reached ~50,100 2/10/2026.
Oil is a big deal but are investors losing sleep over fertilizer, urea, and hundreds of ships trapped in the Gulf? Perhaps they will soon.
The US has had, by my quick count, just six negative quarters of GDP in the 15 years since 2010. Six; and only two were consecutive. And every economic sneeze or cough in the last 50 years has been rescued by an increasingly aggressive policy response/bailout. At this point, “buy the dip” is fully and completely reflexive with no accompanying critical thought. Fundamentals don’t matter, lower markets are ALWAYS opportunities and have no information content about the future. In the meantime, private debt has exploded (trillions) with weakened covenants and laughable mark to market discipline. Notes about illiquidity (gates limiting investor withdrawals) and oopsie “idiosyncratic” credit events in this arena are now weekly if not daily events. And don’t forget that the future of the free world is dependent on (debt investment in) Artificial Intelligence that is exploding demand for ……energy?
When this breaks, it will be a doozy.
I’ll see your Dow 50k and raise you 1.2M … as in deaths from the Sars2-Covid pandemic.
Not to mention another one million likely dead in the Russo-Ukraine war, and Gaza.
Roaring twenties indeed … if your business is funeral parlors.
What did Trump mean by the “really big present” Iran gave the US? He said it was “oil and gas related”. Was he talking about Iran letting non-USreal allied ships through the Strait? Did he just make it up, if so does he know that he did? Since this is the stupidest timeline is some low level Iranian functionary pulling a scam on him and he thinks he’s actually talking to a high level Iranian official maybe using someone ridiculous like Laura Loomer as the go between?
What he said was this-
‘”They gave us a present, and the present arrived today. It was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money,” he told reporters.
“I’m not going to tell you what the present is, but it was a very significant prize.”
He added that the mystery gift was related to the Strait of Hormuz — the critical choke point at the centre of the conflict through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes.
“What it showed me is we’re dealing with the right people,” he said.’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-25/iran-war-trump-to-send-thousands-more-troops-to-middle-east/106493972
I’d like to believe that they gave him a gold-coated pager.
Maybe a Trojan horse full of gas?
I’m thinking it was a Major Award…
A Christmas Story It’s a Major Award HD Scenes from the 80s 1983
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OItP8-_mjXw
Jelly of the Month Club?
“Say hello to my little friend!”
Tony Montana
He’s got a gold pager. Maybe a model Shahed, in cheap plastic to reflect the depth of their respect.
Iran agreed to keep selling it’s oil without sanction to help with keeping the oil price down (AKA Bessent Jiu Jitsu)?
Joking I think.
As we used to say in Pittsburgh about guys like Trump, “The porch light is on but there’s nobody home.”
It seems to me that there is a pattern of DJT projecting his preferences onto the Iranians (asserting, for example, that Iran wants to end the conflict quickly). Perhaps this “gift” assertion is similar, characterizing something Iran did in its own interest (allowing tolled shipments through the Strait — which earns it some international good will, generates revenue and, perhaps importantly, establishes a precedent for future management of passage through the Strait) as being actually in US interest.
Professor Marandi said it was a fake Gucci bag. See starting at 12:20:
Giving you this rather than the tweet because the next bit is more Iranian trolling.
I hope there was a gold embossed piece of paper at the bottom of the bag with “thank you for your attention to this matter” printed on it in a large, gaudy font.
L-O-S-E-R has made it to Youtube.
Ayatrollyah!
The gift is wiping out the competition in the LNG sea trade market. More LPG export infrastructure will be coming online over the next few years and Trump expects the world to turn to the US to make up for the damage to Qatar’s export loss.
Oh, that is a good one!
They gave him a large tub of lube and an Iranian eggplant and told him to “allez vous faire foutre”.
I watched the clip and he basically said it was something transiting the strait. Right after he said he couldn’t tell anyone what the present was.
He’s falling apart.
The last remaining Americans being smuggled out of Iraq?
I understand that there are about a hundred thousand or more Americans stuck in the Gulf region trying to get home. Not only tourists and business people but oilfield workers and the like. And the US State Department has basically abandoned them and said that they are on their own. The majority of them should be back in America before November so you wonder if they will have an effect on the Midterms. It sounds like a small number but when you add in their partners, friends, family, neighbours, workmates and all the rest of it you are talking about a large enough number to have an effect in marginal seats.
Extracting them would actually be a good task for the MEUs en route
True, but this administration is incapable of helping anyone who isn’t rich or connected. Even if they suddenly found it in them to do something at this point, they’d find a way to extract payment.
A Nobel Peace Prize.
I just watched this video by Pravin Sawhney of Force Magazine.
Last Chance for Peace in West Asia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HGXdlZ0IwY
He says there may be talks with Pakistan as mediator.
If such talks happen, the venue will be Islamabad.
The Russians and Chinese say that talks are a good thing.
FM Araghchi told Chinese FM Wang Yi that Iran is not looking for a ceasefire.
Iran wants a comprehensive and permanent solution.
They will come to the table as victors of this war.
Alexander Mercouris had a long-form debunking of all this sort of talk at the top of his talk yesterday:
President Trump has a habit of putting forward Peace Plans, the name given to his list of Non- negotiable conditions: A 20 Point Peace Plan – all non-negotiable – to Hamas, now
a 15 Point Peace Plan to Iran…
It’s a ruse he uses. He knows his Peace Plan will be rejected which then allows him to claim “See, I Tried !!” And He most likely will be claiming it this weekend…
It’s worrying that any Western media would promote the idea that Iran has won… Because such will stir up support for Trump of the many who are currently borderline in
their support for Trump’s War…
“There’s a stillness in the wing before the hurricane begins”.
Trump’s brain can only handle heads of agreement. Any details are just for lackeys.
A bit of respect and due deference please. That’s the winner of the FIFA Peace Prize you’re taking about.
1. I don’t think he’s that clever.
2. I don’t think he’d intentionally put himself in a place to look like he failed at getting his way.
3. It seems to me he usually just stops talking about whatever it was and moves on to the next thing rather than saying “I tried.”
I expect the Iran negotiations to mirror the Ukraine negotiations. Trump was constantly negotiating, but rarely with Russia. Talks were with NATO, the EU, France, Germany and the UK, probably about coordination of PR, ISR, arms shipments, sanctions, and the spoils. A deal with Russia (capitulation) was never really in the cards.
Trump couldn’t afford to be “the President who lost Ukraine.” And he can’t afford to lose Iran, particularly when he is encircled by Zionist supremacists. So he has to engage in “negotiations,” kicking the can down the road, hoping for a miracle, dreading Mr. Market.
Maybe Mr. Market can take down the Ukraine misadventure as well…
Trump can afford to ‘lose’ both Ukraine and Iran. He can simply quit, leaving some mug like Vance to pardon him and sort out the mess. His wealth may be exaggerated, but he’s got more than enough to spend the rest of his days in luxury. It’s vanity and megalomania that are stopping him, not affordability.
Yeah it’s funny to see all the spilled ink about how it’s impossible to deescalate.
It’s pretty simple, stop hostilities. But western chauvinism is powerful. The us military cannot admit that their tactics dont work.
Trump has lost it, I am sure there are serious people trying to figure out how to replace him without damage to their investments.
Good luck with that.
We need a new category of Stupid, Something that captures the essence of Trump.
Won’t admit. More vanity and megalomania.
The people in the US military who opposed the misadventures demanded by Trump have either quit, been told to quit or fired.
It doesn’t help that Trump lives in a zero sum world. Stopping hostilities now means Iran benefits and Trump doesn’t. Trump never accepts him not benefitting, ever.
Layer a malign narcissistic personality over that and it is quite likely Trump is currently suffering from narcissistic collapse, basically reality trying to assert itself over his view of the world and Trump (violently) fighting to restore his worldview to the detriment of what ever bit of reality intruding on it.
So retreat, stopping hostilities, or otherwise conceding is not in the cards, escalation is. It is also why I consider US to be more likely then Israel to use nukes. For Israel using nukes is effectively murder-suicide, for Trump nukes are the ultimate expression of why he is stronger and why Iran should have accepted that.
Or he could just simply quit.
Is there any external actor that could move Iran? I see them isolated by sanctions thus indifferent to a global economic recession/depression. Don’t would make sense they take it all the way there unless their is a counteracting force. It seems this is in Russias advantage so they are quietly cheering it on and helping. Maybe China or India? Given they are getting oil they might be fine, but Curious on everyone’s thoughts.
No. We recounted in an earlier post (hoisting reader comments and then there was even more evidence in comments on that post) how Russia has treated Iran badly in the past and Iran is leery of them and the general proposition of being vassalized. They highly value their autonomy.
and Russia is perhaps the only country in the world that actually benefits from this war
RUSSIA HOLDS OFF UKRAINE INVASION
IRAN HOLDS OFF THE ISRAELIS
CHINA HOLDS OFF THE PACIFIC
AND THEH ALL HOLD OFF AMERICAN WARMONGERS TOGETHER
Don’t forget perhaps the most important metric from Trump’s standpoint: 36 percent approval.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5798923-trump-approval-rating-drop/
Impeachment ahoy?
But Democrats can’t even rouse themselves to get a war powers bill to the floor of the house:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/meeks-jeffries-back-off-war-powers
They seem to be happy as walking corpses now, I guess that puts me on the pessimistic side they will be able impeach from beyond the grave later.
I consider the status of Ben Gurion airport to be a good indicator of the progress of the war. It is now effectively closed, which means that Israel cannot protect its high-value installations against missile attack. Assuming that Iran can preserve its missile attack capability, it is going to win this war.
I’ve found David Blair in the Torygraph to be consistently pretty good. The paper itself is a mix of nutso delusional bits with occasional good solid realist articles. Opinion articles are to be avoided lol.
Axel Springer’s toy now, so we’ll see how it changes.
The Telegraph also published and then deleted an article on Lebanon headlined “Christians and Hezbollah unite against ‘Epstein Empire'”.
https://nitter.poast.org/richimedhurst/status/2036407569657319880#m
Link to archived version of article (as republished on Yahoo!):
https://web.archive.org/web/20260324052053/https://uk.news.yahoo.com/christians-hezbollah-unite-against-epstein-100000557.html
I would like to see Iran add to its demands to end the war that Netanyahu and his cabinet must surrender themselves to the ICC regarding the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The warrants are there, after all. I wonder who could object, the Collective West being so concerned about law, democracy, and such. In any case, that might shake things up and add a whole new and possibly useful dimension to the conflict. Why not go for broke?
Thanks, Yves, for this daily anchor of sanity in these extremely turbulent times.
Another data point that aligns with the Telegraph article you posted is this interview snippet by the Economist with the ex head of MI6 Alex Younger. He says clearly that Iran has the “whip hand” over the US in this current military conflict. Sadly the rest of the interview contains a lot of delusional speak about how degraded Iran’s weapons are and how unpopular the govt is, but I thought this section was interesting.
https://youtu.be/3mSLRhh0pFU?si=nDa-uolyEEYL7Hmr
Done late but done. Please refresh your browsers and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment
After COVID, I think the market learned the wrong lesson, which was that all crises could be managed by monetary policy from the Fed (either via interest rates or FOMO), and that even a once in a generation pandemic was only capable of causing a mild recession and a substantial, albeit relatively benign bout of inflation. Perhaps, from a certain angle the market is correct. Trump will never find a stock market correction, let alone a crash, politically acceptable and when presented with a choice between that and severe inflation…inflation will be chosen every single time. He’s been yelling about cutting interests rates for a while already. May as well invest in equities on the assumption that the dollar will be devalued eventually to support asset prices.
My basic expectation for the next crisis is something a lot closer to the early 1980s than 2008. If it it very unlikely that the Trump admin would make a different choice, especially since devaluing the dollar to make exports more competitive was part of his plan even before the war. .
Peace Proposal as Blame-shifting?
It seems to me that the only real value of the non-starter peace proposal is that it vitiates USA’s call for a ceasefire, which has been echoed by Gulf States, Europe, and others.
Iran will now be portrayed by the Western-friendly media as the party that has chosen war over peace. That is powerful messaging to a public that is overwhelmingly against this war. Especially when, IMO, the Epstein Regime has no intention of stopping short of total victory.
This is slight-of-hand is how regimes convince people to endure the hardships of war.
=
If I’m right then Trump has gotten the “off-ramp” he most wanted: an exit to the blame for starting the war. Removing Trump via Impeachment or Article 25 may now be impossible.
That the Epstein Regime chose this war will be relegated to a footnote (if that) as jingoism takes center-stage.
I don’t think this provides much public absolution for starting the war — I think what it protects him from, somewhat, is blame for the war’s continuation.
One could add that a posture that “Iran is responsible for the beginning of the conflict because it refused to capitulate to the conditions for not initiating it and is responsible for the continuation of the conflict because it refuses to capitulate to its adversaries’ conditions for temporarily pausing until they are ready to resume hostilities” may not be convincing to everyone.
I doubt that they would reference the beginning of the conflict. It would be considered irrelevant to why the fight continues.
It’s not that complicated. Iran will be portrayed as the bad actor that doesn’t want peace.
Propaganda narratives are generally based on simple truths like: ‘peacemaker’ Trump wanted to stop the fighting but terrorist Iran doesn’t want peace.
The logic is twisted and masks the reality. But that’s exactly what propaganda does.
Trump-friendly media is NOT likely to delve into details like the peace proposal was a non-starter or that Trump started the war in the middle of peace negotiations.
i had a wander through trumpian media…faux ewts, etc…yesterday…and welp, we won!…yay!…and trump has 100% approval rating…and if you think otherwise, yer a delusional commie fag, or something.
it was quite an eye-opening diversion.
Yes, that’s technically true. Those paying attention will still know what happened.
But I think the vast majority can be swayed to support the war and forget or overlook how it got started if they are convinced that Iran is the bad actor, forcing USA-Israel to continue a war that they so ardently/sarc want to end.
I don’t think TPTB will care who took one negotiation stance or the other once the economy goes down the toilet. It’s who started it that will be foremost in their mind$. Maybe Trump’s SS will Indira Gandhi him, or he will develop some Ariel Sharon level “medical crisis”, then Vance can try to back out of this mess before things get to a full-on military coup of some kind. Iran is definitely still in danger on the military and subversion front, but they also have to make sure they don’t get stabbed in the back by their fellow BRICS members.
The main thing now is that neither Iran nor Israel have gone all the way up the escalation ladder yet: Iran hasn’t made Israel totally unlivable by wiping out desalination and electrical systems entirely, and Israel hasn’t used nukes. Yet. So there is still time for saner heads to figure out how to wind this down with some (probably transparently bogus) face-saving on both sides. But the longer this goes on, the harder it will be for the US, especially if the marines get bogged down in Lebanon or the airborne guys get dropped into Iraq and take heavy casualties.
An example of blame-shifting in action
From Aljazeera Liveblog (about 20 min ago):
It’s revealing that Wadephul says seeking negotiations.
Iran does not give a rat’s ass about the opinion of other countries. The UN passed a resolution by a very large majority that criticized Iran and not the US or Israel which attacked Iran.
This is an existential fight. Iran will do what it takes to prevail, even if that destroys the world economy. No one else has a vote.
I agree with you.
This nonstarter peace proposal works as a propaganda narrative that influences Americans and citizens of the West.
In fact, the proposal is anti-peace to the extent that it’s insulting to the Iranians.
That really was something, wasn’t it? I had hoped that the same kind of people who were willing to suggest that maybe, kinda, possibly, what was happening in Gaza was genocide would also be able to recognize who was at fault for this conflict. I guess the existential threat to the world’s economy is too much for all of those other countries to stomach siding with Iran against the US and Israel.
I fear that what may occur if the US and Israel “win” will be worse than if we lose. If we win, the draconian rules that will need to be enforced to support our military and economy will be awful to live under. If we lose, all hell will be released but there will be pockets of sanity and some hope for change.
When has Israel given a rats ass about any UN resolution that did or didn’t pass due to US veto? Why would Iran?
Thanks Yves.
I was going to write something similar but you did it better. Even less does Iran care what anyone in the USA thinks.
Besides I suspect that most countries are thinking “It serves the bullies right”. I don’t think Washington has a of respect and goodwill right now.
I only agree with the “rat’s ass” business with regard to those states which are not friendly or sympathetic with the Iran. In a Leninist sense, Iran is in the vanguard at this point against the imperial hegemon. The past is littered with those states and individuals who fought and lost but advanced the cause. Reading the blogs these days originating in the “West” I am struck with how little sympathy they have for the “average” Iranian and skip over them to wax eloquent on strategies and tactics of both US/Israel against the limited stricking power of Iran. They appalled, but not by the actions of the US and Israel. Listening to Trump, and his coterie of Western leaders underneath their rhetoric is the claim that Iran should must seek a ceasefire or at the very least negotiate on less than favorable terms to stop their (West’s) punishment on the “regime”. Describing the US/Israel as barbarians, is scarcely an accurate description.
I do not begin to understand your comment. You do not appear to grasp what is going on.
Iran is in a unique position in historical terms. It has a stranglehold on multiple inputs that are absolutely essential to the global economy…when a global economy as integrated and fragile as ours is a totally new development.
It controls the Strait of Hormuz. It has cut the world’d oil supply by 20% when the 70s oil shock came out of a mere 6% reduction. And we are not factoring in the additional impact of the loss of LNG output and the related and large hit to helium production.
And James Currie of Carlyle says the impact is greater than in the 70s not by virtue of the greater loss of supply but to petroleum products being essential in many many many supply chains. “For the want of a nail the shoe was lost” on an unimaginable scale.
And Iran has just said if the US fucks with them further, they + the Houthis will close the Bab-el-Mandib strait too.
Iran may not go all the way to reduce Israel to a “Gaza type” of existence, but I am sure the US/Israel have not taken this option off the table with regard to Iran. In other words, I believe the Iranians will reduce both states, gulf states, etc. to mass starvation, only if the US/Israel reduce Iran to this state. The US/Israel can “fuck with them further” and reduce the world to the Dark Ages or Mad Max. If the Americans thought this was the case, that is, the US acting like manner, I would anticipate or expect at the very least demonstrations. Not be found. I understand the world citizen having hatred now for all things US and Israeli. Just saying. Iran has no choice, the US/Israel have options aplenty. The concept of labour aristocracy or coupon clipper of the Edwardian Age does not even come close to describing the average US citizen.
The US may just walk away and pretend that it didn’t even want the Middle East really, but Israel is already in over its skis in Lebanon and Palestine hasn’t exactly been pacified, either. Not sure how much fight is left in Gaza, but the West Bank will soon have its moment. Iraqi resistance is getting started, the Syrians are not yet finished, and Yemen is only warming up. The zionist project is coming to an end. They may yet blow up Al Aqsa, but they won’t get to rebuild their temple.
> I would anticipate or expect at the very least demonstrations. Not be found.
List of protests and demonstrations in the United States by size
> This list includes U.S. protests with at least 101,000 participants
Most protests and civil disturbances in the US are centered on within-group issues. In 2025 the No-Kings protests have been significant, centered on DOGE cuts and immigration/ICE.
Lower-key protests in 2023-24 did occur re Gaza/Israel, 2:1 either side. Where it was noted were in switched Democratic votes which contributed to Trump’s re-election. In particular the charge of Anti-Semitism carries both moral weight and political, as potential counter-elites like Thomas Massie have been targeted very hard in coming elections.
As individuals, people are struggling more as the low and mid middle classes are washed out economically. Suicide continues to be a high-level cause of mortality. People got their own problems and can’t afford to be targets. At Indiana University, there are employees who are keeping their mouths shut while doing anonymous protests like graffiti, a bit in the James C Scott framework.
I think No Kings this Saturday will be big. Bigger than the one last October, which was 7 million nationwide. There’s 7 events in my area.
One of the most ‘King’ things Trump has done has been this insane war.
Find an event near you. On this site:
https://www.mobilize.us/nokings/ us the “Filter” to find an event near you (scroll down a little and you’ll have a way to search by place.)
Check out the whole No Kings thing on their site: https://www.nokings.org
Americans do not do protests on large or concerted scales. We have a deeply mercenary culture and protesting is an admission of loserdom.
The US has never had a general strike. That tells you what you need to know.
Moreover, the fact that we do not have a single city that is both the economic and political center, unlike Paris for France, is a further obstacle to effective protest, as is the cost of getting people to any city big enough to be a power center.
Moreover, many are aware that we live in a mass surveillance society. Being arrested, even if charges are dismissed, is a huge black mark for employability.
Neoliberalism has also weakened social bonds. Most are too tired and too busy to have meaningful involvement in in person groups ex church and churches do not foment protests (save the Torah Jews v Israel…which not being a church does not contradict the point).
I have long predicted that as things got worse in the US, there would not be meaningful protest but instead a big rise in violence like mass shootings, as in individual action.
Americans do not do protests on large or concerted scales. We have a deeply mercenary culture and protesting is an admission of loserdom.
Yves, that is very wise.
You need to add also the violent suppression of any alternative, communal ideologies.
How can Trump pin the blame for not wanting to negotiate on Iran?
I mean, Trump killed all the negotiators, and he wants new negotiators to show up and get killed?
This is beyond ridiculous.
It’s not logical.
It doesn’t have to be.
Trump proposed peace … Iran rejected it.
That’s how propaganda works.
That message, when broadcast repeatedly to the public, is very likely to generate outrage toward Iran. And turn many who were against the war into supporters of the war. Especially among Conservatives who are angered that Trump lied about keep USA out of “forever wars” but who nevertheless feel strongly patriotic.
Why else does Trump put forth a proposal that doesn’t actually advance peace? In fact, it may actual detract from peace because its insulting to the Iranians.
Some say he’s just crazy … losing his mind … clutching at straws … etc. Some say he’s impulsive .. “transactional” .. looking for an “off-ramp”, etc.
Yet it seems that he’s actually preparing for more war: 1) moving troops; 2) got the Saudi’s pleading with him to continue the war; 3) Israelis still seem gung-ho. That takes planning. And resolve.
What does Trump NEED to continue the war: greater public support in USA and US allies. How does he get that? By reclaiming the “peacemaker” mantle. Iran has to be made to be the one that is prolonging the war.
You assume that people believe this Administration. At this point, only base does.
Even my Thai helper volunteered that Trump contradicts himself so often that you can’t make sense of what he says. He repeated that idea today specifically with respect to the peace patter. Remember that Thai media is pretty pro-US.
MSM does believe. Check CNN soon to be either folded into the “real right wing” or closed up as a money losing proposition. And CNN at this.moment, as we speak, gives Trump the benefit of the doubt.
Oh, come on. You know better.
MSM is not “people”. The media I have seen on YouTube (and that includes BBC, CNBC, France 24, Sky) has plenty of acknowledgement that Trump is highly erratic and not trustworthy. They might not be bold enough to put that in their headlines, as Bloomberg is doing now, but they are not stupid. They may be craven and corrupt.
Will disagree. Agree with craven and corrupt (not just MSM but has infected the greater US population) and to make matters worse, the exceptionalism and isolationatism view of the world has been shown to me personally and professionally. This is usually exhibited by a paternalistim that almost all Americans display in their relations with Canadians. Hard for Canadians tell the truth when Americans own so much of Canada. But seething beneath the Canadian bonhomie is: Yankee go home and stay home.
This sounds like sample bias, and the result perhaps of the class of people you are dealing with. US polls show Trump’s policies are unpopular. And his supporters skew to the wealthy, with high support among the top 1%:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/03/25/americans-broadly-disapprove-of-u-s-military-action-in-iran/
https://archive.is/jtUYN#selection-4683.0-4683.178
I have dealt with Americans in all classes for the last 50 years – initially I held menial jobs, but held positions in the federal government and Canadian universities. On the whole Americans I met are pleasant but for the most part would, if serious people, only raise an eyebrow when engaged on the incursions and excursions of the American state when discussing whichever country the then current president was either bombing or destabilizing. My view is consistent with an imperial worldwview having trickled down from the highest to the lowest level of the masses. Perhaps not celebrating death and destruction, but Americans, on the whole, were/are prepared to live off the imperial spoils. Only actual damage, like 9/11, was there some hope for change, but I am bewildered that the world reacted sympathetically to the blowback after witnesses barbirians on the loose since 1945.
This is grounds shifting and bad faith argumentation. The issue is whether most Americans believe Trump. I presented data. You double down on off-point anecdata.
Your discussion today is yet more negative value added.
I hate to pull rank but I guarantee I have made more study of propaganda and cognitive bias than you have, so for you to cop to having expertise is offensive and misleading. I don’t preen the way you do and I (along with a ton of readers here) have far better grounds for doing so.
I warned you yesterday twice to cut it out and you are at it again.
I don’t have time to waste on you. If you do this again, you will lose our comments privileges.
Enjoy your posts/opinion on the narrative management side of the war.
Please continue to post your opinions.
It isn’t if your audience is not the average American citizen. If your audience is full of a bunch of people who equivocate about 6 impossible things before breakfast each day to support their investments, it makes total sense. It also makes sense if you consider how biased our media is and how ill informed the average American could be about all of these issues.
Your typical working stiff doesn’t know where Iran is, how large Iran is, doesn’t understand the critical significance of the Strait of Hormuz, has been lied to or has not been exposed to all the bombing campaigns in the MENA through the last 20 years ex Iraq, has little savings to direct investments, and was never taught the history of US involvement in Iran. This is an easy population to manipulate. They are fundamentally ignorant of critical details that would allow them to even question what we’re doing and how we’re doing it.
The aligned mouthpieces of our neoliberal and zionist friendly administrations revealed a lot during an interview with Dave Smith last year, when people like Vash declared that they did not care about the average American’s opinion on any war. What we’re currently seeing is another manifestation of that. This is all a poor effort to show the US and our allies are doing something to stop this conflict besides murdering more people. Given their audience and how sidelines citizens have become, it is all that they believe they need to do.
Agreed. I’m hard pressed to imagine any analogous situations in the storied Life of Trump, where one side repeatedly killed leaders and negotiators of the opposing side and were still able to bargain. It may be that model of Arabs qua collection of tribes vs. Persians as a unified nation is useful here, with Trump thinking that wiping out one elite “Arab” grouping will just lead to its replacement by another that’s intimidated by the fate of their predecessors.
Today’s Headlines: Iran rejects Trump’s Peace Plan
Readers at NC understand how the headlines don’t accurately portray where we are today. Does the average Joe understand? And, if not already critical of Trump, do they care enough to understand Trump’s culpability?
The next iteration: War support up 25%!
Now, War support is very low. Maybe 20%. An uptick to 35% isn’t a lot. BUT propagandists will spin any increase.
Like it or not, Trump – and those around him – know how to manipulate.
= =
NBC News Live updates: Iran rejects Trump plan to end war and issues its own demands, state TV reports
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CNBC: Iran rejects U.S. ceasefire offer, demands sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz
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NYPost: Iran completely rejects Trump’s 15-point cease-fire plan — and makes wild demands instead
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Sky News: Iran rejects peace proposal, says President Donald Trump will not decide when conflict ends after senior official warned US ‘do not test our resolve’
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Independent: Iran-US war latest: Trump’s deployment of ground troops confirmed after peace plan dismissed by Tehran
IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THE US PUBLIC THINKS.
It won’t affect Iran
It will not affect voter perceptions of Trump.
Even if it did, what voters think does not affect what Administrations do.
Please stop dwelling on irrelevant propaganda.
“IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THE US PUBLIC THINKS” should be our national motto.
This is silly. I attack and bomb you until i wish and then blame you for not accepting a ceasefire when it fits me. Good enough for unwashed conservatives whose memory is extremely selective, but silly anyway.
‘Russians With Attitude
@RWApodcast
One advantage the Iranians have is that their entire elite seems to consist of 130 IQ polymath combat veterans with PhDs who stormed across minefields with fixed bayonets surrounded by poison gas back in the day and then spent 30 years studying philosophy, game theory, engineering and military science. Average decision-maker quality appears to be dramatically higher than elsewhere, especially qualified for shit-hits-the-fan situations’
The comments are worth reading. There is a lot of people raging at this tweet who have been triggered big time-
https://xcancel.com/RWApodcast/status/2036460363181428834
Guess the Iranians never thought to recruit their leadership class from lawyers like we in the west have done.
… shit hits the fan vs shit- for- brains. What could possibly go right?
I’m thinking the news that slips through this weekend will not be good.
While I have a chance (as the schmaltzy musical lyric goes, never let life’s Golden Chances pass you by…”
Sure appreciate N C and its community commentariat!
Au contraire and tout autrement, in Iran the lawyers (a.k.a Mullahs and Ayatollahs) have to also study history, tradition, logic and philosophy. I assume they prefer their lawyers to be wise and reasoning rather than smart and clever.
Aurelien wrote a wonderful essay last week (well, they’re all wonderful but for some reason this one in particular hit home with me) called “The Morally Challenged in Charge“.
Most (if not all) of the West’s leadership challenges I think were summed up by the following:
The result is perhaps the most amoral or immoral ruling class in the history of the West, for whom anything not explicitly illegal is fair game, and anything explicitly illegal is just a challenge to find your way around.
Until we get beyond this attitude, we are doomed.
When you have a centuries’ old luciferian pedo cult, whose chief pursuits are power and eternal youth, created by the powerful banking interests of the day and which includes royalty of many kingdoms, promoting to power only members of its ranks or recruiting people in positions of power, as centuries pass, they end up capturing pretty much every institution. The immorality of the ruling class, therefore, becomes an inevitability. This is the real Enlightenement and what they really mean by Western Values.
this quote was part of a substack linked yesterday – worth repeating –
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.”
John Adams
https://www.socratic-method.com/quote-meanings-and-interpretations/john-adams-remember-democracy-never-lasts-long-it-soon-wastes-exhausts-and-murders-itself-there-never-was-a-democracy-yet-that-did-not-commit-suicide
It’s incredibly impressive how well the Iranians understood this conflict in advance. The poise and trolling just add to it.
That the orientalist Americans assumed that they were the smart sophisticated party is unsurprising. Watching the realisation dawn is not unpleasant :)
The US ran multiple war games about this conflict. Iran won.
Members of the US leadership class are aware that this is an impossible situation and will lead to the collapse of the American Empire…global integration….on time demand etc… The dislocation will be traumatic for the most exposed countries and regions.
We are now left searching for why. Who benefits.
US controlled oil and gas will move to dominate more markets especially LNG since NG is now given away in Texas….yet we can’t get that to New England because of the Jones Act.
Zionists but more to the point Christian Zionists are pushing for the apocalypse. They are a major part of Trump’s coalition so this escalation up to including destroying oil production in the Iran and the Gulf is part of God’s plan…it does not help that all 3 religions have significant elites who agree that this is the end times.
The trolling is especially delightful! They seem to have more than a few polymaths who excel at it.
They seem to have understood very well that the correct way to attack Donald J. Harkonnen is with ridicule. It really makes his head asplode…
Incidentally, a poster on a board I was running during Trump One had it all sussed out. He pointed out that if it was not for Trump’s $$$ he would just be the guy on the NY subway yelling nonsense at everyone and waving his dick around.
I don’t think that’s a mode of attack limited just* to Hair Furore, but I *do* suspect that he’s a lot more susceptible to it than many, you’re right.
*I mean, c’mon, can you imagine Pentagon Pete taking any sort of joke that he was the center of? :-)
Probably covered yesterday but I think it’s worth noting some of the changes in the region. Iraq declared war on the US and US/NATO forces have left Iraq. Also, Iran is now raining steady missile fire on the ISR forces in Southern Lebanon. And there are reports that the Syrian army is reforming. Jolani’s hold look tenuous.
No, this is important so thanks for mentioning it. I was remiss in not including that (I believe it is in the Janta Ka clip with CNN but I should have called it out). That means among other things that one of the bandied -bout idea for the US to attack Iran, through Iraq, looks even less viable (and that before was at best in the “less obviously terrible” category).
The “America must withdraw from the Middle East” part is going quite well.
What bases are still functional? Saudi (kinda!), Jordan, and whatever is in Israel?
It deffo makes the Kharg Island adventure MUCH more risky…
There have also been intertubes reports (unverified, and maybe just wishful thinking) of attempted coups in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain. If US-unfriendly regimes took over in one or more of those countries it would be a huge shock to the West.
The significance of the U.S. departure from Iraq won’t be underestimated by future historians
Camp Victory wasn’t just an ordinary miliary base it was a symbol of U.S occupation of Iraq.
General Qasem Soleimani is looking down and seeing that his mission to prevent Iraq being turned into a staging ground for an attack on the Iran is now completed.
It would be a matter of supreme irony if Camp Victory ended up being renamed Camp Soleimani.
They might do better if they hire some Iranian polymath trolls* to help with the renaming. Turn the thing into a museum, maybe…
*which should never be construed as me slamming or disparaging them – those folks are AMAZING!
I am having trouble finding sourcing on this. The main one seems to be a Times of India Youtube piece, which does make the claim in the title, but doesn’t support it in the summary, instead saying that they summoned US diplomats for a dressing-down (they are also bringing forward the end of an anti-terror partnership, with the stated intention of getting ‘foreign military units’ out of the country).
Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal, calls talks illogical
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/iran-rejects-us-ceasefire-proposal-calls-talks-illogical-4579858
Iran won’t accept U.S. effort at ceasefire in war, state media reports
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-us-trump.html
Lebanese army ‘lied to the IDF,’ didn’t disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Israeli officers say
“The Lebanese army lied to the IDF. They deceived Israel. They claimed they had enforced the decision to demilitarize southern Lebanon,” one Israeli officer said.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-891126
Wrt Lebanon, that’s some chutzpah. The Lebanese didn’t sell out their country. This is unacceptable!
I honestly think Hizb’ullah has everyone in Lebanon but Gulf-owned Sunni “leaders” behind them.
The Lebanese lied…LMAO. Maybe they learned something from their neighbors to the south!!!
One’s jaw strikes the floor upon hearing that that Kushner and Witless, Trump’s dynamic duo, are being mentioned once more as his negotiators in (im)possible talks. In the light of their incompetence and dishonesty, can a more bone-headed, gobsmackingly impertinent proposition be imagined?
“Under no circumstances will we ever again agree to have dealings with these two shmendricks”.
Mincing no words, that should be Iran’s response.
If I recall well enough, the USA’s middle east negotiators are usually Jewish such as Richard Holbrooke, Dennis Ross and now Kushner/Witkoff.
The Arab/Persian parties on the other side must get the same sinking feeling that a black court defendant got viewing an all white jury when they entered the courtroom.
And Biden sent Hochstein to Lebanon.
It’s a clear insult in my opinion.
Canada tells Israel that Lebanon’s sovereignty ‘must not be violated’
Canada and France have told Israel to halts plans to occupy southern Lebanon as invasion preparations under way.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/canada-tells-israel-that-lebanons-sovereignty-must-not-be-violated
Philippines receives first Russian oil shipment in five years
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/03/25/2516707/philippines-receives-first-russian-oil-shipment-five-years
IDF approves framework for calling up 400,000 reservists: ‘Response to challenges’
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/aepizedga
‘The Daily News
@DailyNewsJustIn
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇶 The Iraqi Armed Forces and the Iraqi Council of National Security have given the Popular Mobilization Forces full authority to respond to and retaliate against any U.S. and Israeli attacks, effectively giving them the green light to enter the war formally.’
Somebody just kicked the donkey. You can bet that the Iraqi armed forces will supply the Popular Mobilization Forces with all the equipment and ammo that they need. The Iraqis have demanded that the US and the NATO contingents leave their country but the US refuses so it looks like the only option is the military one. When this war is over I would not be surprised to read that Iran and Iraq will go into a security agreement with each other.
The Popular Mobilization Forces are a former militia that is now part of the Iraqi military proper, so not just a ragtag group.
America is very rapidly exiting Iraq.
A good overview of this development. I like this channel regardless of the bias.
https://youtu.be/9Vfn2EM5xv8?si=QcwVqc7zjyf-zuZ3
Iraqi PMF with Quds defeated ISIS,, where Iraqi and U.S. regular forces were useless.
Italians and Spanish sensed this and exited a few days ago.There were a few troops from these countries.
I’m baffled as to why this region is so focused on it’s sectarian squabbling rather than addressing the real 800 lb. gorilla in the room. They sit on the resource wealth the entire world is fatally addicted to yet let themselves be controlled and exploited by outsiders. How do they sit on their hands and allow what’s happened and happening still in Gaza and Lebanon?
It’s interesting how the current situation seems to be a fast forward version of Biden’s Ukraine gambit. Both presidents thought they were “running the world,” that regime change–the goal–would be easy, that Western media dominance would control the narrative and tar their opponents with imaginary atrocities (Bucha). One might think the same deep state has been running both operations but a deep state that has goals as shallow and nebulous as its tactics. The main point seems to be “running the world.”
Soon to be: World 2, USA 0?
We Americans apologize for our quite mad leadership. Looks like we will be suffering some punishment in this instance.
Citizens of the 5 eyes countries and EU have absolutely no say in what their countries do. Some democracies, eh?
The primary problem that exists with this war is that Trump’s treachery in prior negotiations, instigated by Netanyahu, has foreclosed on any possibility of a diplomatic resolution. This leaves a military resolution as the only possible outcome. When markets finally realise that they’ve been lied to and that the US is getting expelled from the Middle East, the overcorrection will be more violent than if it were already pricing such an outcome in.
When your opening gambit is killing your opponent’s Supreme Leader then what negotiation can there be? It’s existential.
Trump is simply out of touch with reality. A report today says the military gives him a daily video showing a few minutes of strike cameras and exploding targets. People are not telling him the reality and he doesn’t want to know. Anyone who says their only decision factor is their version of a “conscience” and the seat of their capacious pants is leaving out the factor everyone else has to deal with: reality.
The situation is absolutely screaming out for more Hitler/Untergang parodies. Here is a pretty good one.
Although the comments on Reddit point out that he is too coherent to really be Trump.
In all probability, this war ends in one of two ways: the destruction of Israel as a state, or the destruction of Iran as a state. The former is more probable than the latter due to the 10:1 population advantage of Iran, and 100:1 land size advantage of Iran, meaning any damage, even disproportionate damage by Israel, will be significantly diluted. It depends on Iran’s stock of drones and ballistic missiles, and their ability to continue production, but it appears their capability has been severely underestimated by the West (and nothing will stop China/Russia/North Korea from providing resupply), and so Iran is probably telling the truth that it can keep things going at the current pace for a year.
The war could be over in 1 hour if Israel wants to launch nukes this morning (which would likely result in MAD by conventional means by Iran, immediately, or if not, in the scenario outlined by Postol in video in the fullness of time). Even if the US wanted to use thermonuclear bombs to make Iran uninhabitable, Israel and the Gulf States would end up uninhabitable as well from the fallout, not to mention nuclear winter for the globe. Tactical nukes won’t do the job, Iran would keep fighting, and it would likely bring the Russians and the Chinese in more directly on behalf of Iran.
Israel probably has no good military options having launched Operation Bibirossa, but has not realized it has no military options. So Israel will continue to fight until it realizes it has no military options, and then is faced with either submission or some kind of (probably nuclear) suicide. I imagine that at some point (like in 1942), the generals will attempt to adjust the civilian leadership but, like 1942/3, it is unclear if they will be successful. The USA can always walk away, but won’t walk because of the political consequences, at least until the destruction of Israel is a fait accompli. So this will probably go on for months until the handwriting is on the wall, despite all the happy talk about peace. It is hard to see the Gulf States not getting wrecked as parties walk the escalation ladder.
There probably is a diplomatic solution, but it can never happen until Bibi and his coalition of zealots goes, and all evidence is that the people of Israel are happy to have Bibi and company run the ship of state as hard as they can into the rocks. If the Israeli’s figure out that Bibi is the pied piper and come to their senses, an off-ramp can probably be found, but that is a big if.
My 2 cents on happy talk of peace.
I believe you are correct.
However, I am even less hopeful that there can ever be a diplomatic solution, because the problem is not just Netanyahu, but the entire, increasingly apocalytpic, political culture of the Israeli state. By far the majority of Israelis are ethno-supremacists committed to genocide and territorial expansion.
Rus has already said that it would respond if Isr used nukes.
Might be difficult for Russia to respond in a manner that doesn’t bring about a US response, though. Other than, say, “harsh language.”
I would suspect that most “kinetic” responses would be off the table.
I believe the winds would carry the fallout to the east, not west toward Israel.
PS Making that point is not advocating for any course of action.
Here is some analysis, not of nuclear strikes but strikes on nuclear facilities, and fallout from a think tank:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/fallout-factor-targeting-irans-nuclear-program
Here is MSM on Israel’s contamination concerns from Fordow strike:
https://www.newsweek.com/israel-plans-contain-nuclear-fallout-strike-iran-fordow-2086631
I’ve seen analysis that strikes on Northern Iran would go East, but Southern Iran would stay in the Gulf/Israel so suicidal.
General primer:
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/
Not sure about the “Russia to nuke Israel in retaliation” claim. Col. MacGregor was claiming this, but I haven’t seen anything official from the Kremlin.
This is a decent wind forecast map. Definitely some East to West action, especially along the South/Persian Gulf:
https://meteologix.com/ir/model-charts/german/windspeed-barbs.html
Trump simply didn’t understand what he was getting into. He thought he’d only need to bomb Iran a little, like last time, and that would lead to a change of government. And even if that didn’t happen, as soon as the US stopped bombing, Iran would wipe its slate clean and end the war. Basically, everything would be like last time.
Instead Iran, suddenly, bit the bullet and dug in its heels and wasn’t playing ball. The US military simply wasn’t prepared for such a turn of events. Trump went after Iran with deliberately insufficient resources for a major war, making the same mistakes Russia made in 2022.
The US could well have broken Iran but to do so, they should have prepared similarly to how they prepared for Desert Storm. Never mind the ground forces, but the Air Force should have concentrated at least three times as many aircraft, and preferably even more.
US intelligence should have hung around Iran’s borders for weeks, identifying targets, studying them, just like they did in Iraq. Before the attack on Iraq, the U.S. trained their Air Force on ranges, practicing the destruction of Iraqi air defence zones, and now? I think we know the answer to that,
Trump decided it’ll be a cakewalk, with strikes on a few points. They did, and with virtually no losses. So, what next?
That’s the problem with the US: strikes of the kind they’re inflicting on Iran won’t knock them out of the war, and deploying full force is difficult because no one is ready, because the bases they’re deploying are under Iranian attack, and because Trump would then have to admit he’s completely screwed up and would have to fight at full force.
Ouch.
Trump simply didn’t understand what he was getting into… Instead Iran … dug in its heels …
Nah, he knew the risks. Iran was saying for weeks or months before the start of the war that they would respond to any attack or bombing with great force. Their was no sudden change in their position. The made it clear they were not going to lay down and take a pounding like they did in June 2025.
That’s probably why (it has been reported) the WH restricted input from the US intelligence community (US IC). Conclusion: the Epstein Regime was hellbent on war with Iran.
I queried Google, “United States airpower 1990 vs. today,” and here is the AI summary I got:
Quote——
In 1990, the US Air Force was a large, Cold War-focused force, transitioning to post-Soviet downsizing with high-volume production planes. Today, the force is roughly half the size, heavily reliant on aging airframes, yet technologically superior with 5th-generation stealth, precision-guided munitions, and unmanned systems, albeit facing a, “Crisis in the Fighter Force”.
1990: Post-Cold War Peak
Size: Over 500,000 active personnel, operating 20+ fighter wing equivalents.
Fleet: Primarily 4th-gen aircraft (F-15, F-16, F-117). The B-2 bomber was just entering production.
Capability: Focused on conventional, mass warfare. Airframes were relatively young, averaging 8 years old, according to the “Slow Death of American Air Power”.
Today: Small, Stealthy, & Aging
Size: Smaller force, with fighter inventory less than half of 1989 levels, notes the “Rebuilding America’s Air Power” article.
Fleet: The average age of aircraft is 24+ years, and many, “bomber forces” still use the same airframes (B-52H, B-1B) from 1990, notes the “Slow Death of American Air Power” article.
Capability: Dominated by 5th-gen fighters (F-35, F-22) and drone (MQ-9) integration, but struggle with, “high-end, peer combat” according to the “Crisis in the Fighter Force” article.
Future: Development of new stealth platforms like the B-21 Raider, as discussed in the “Facebook post”.
Key Differences
Combat Focus: Shifted from mass and attrition to stealth, precision, and networked, long-range kills.
Sustainability: The 1990s force was cheaper to operate; today’s force faces high maintenance costs due to age.
Budget: Following 9/11, the Army and Navy often saw higher investment than the Air Force for over two decades, notes the “Crisis in the Fighter Force” article.
—— end quote
I omitted the citations, but you can do your own query. As you can see, time and the Congressional budgeting process has not been kind to our air power. It really would be telling if we could audit all the trillions that is spent on military technology and how much of that goes to lobbying, marketing, and overpriced “consultants.”
While we agree that the US has neither the resources or the strategic aptitude and planning that accompanied Desert Storm, we will have to disagree that it would have been sufficient with Iran.
You may have forgotten that Bush 2 wanted to go after Iraq because Dad didn’t end it then. And that he was told by all those far better strategic planners from Desert Storm that invading Iraq would have been a mistake then and was a mistake in 2003 no matter what Dick and Don said. Took almost two decades to limp out of that mess. And even that group was better equipped and had better strategists compared to now.
Even if they had planned it for years, it still would have been a disaster. Not only had war changed without America updating, We have spent years not really dealing with the realities of war. And promoting the biggest kiss asses and buying the weaponry that makes the right people money rather than works. Meanwhile Iran learned from every encounter. Its people are smarter, more strategic and more passionate about the state of their country than all but about 5% of Americans who will have anything to do with this. They have spent years preparing and doing so in a smart and directed manner. This was never going to go well.
“…but the Air Force should have concentrated at least three times as many aircraft (as in Iraq 2003), and preferably even more…”
Not an expert, and I don’t play one on TV. But it seems to me air defense lethality in 2026 is very different from 2003. 2026 AD may not be able to shoot down missiles, but it sure can shoot down airplanes, which is why nobody — not Russia or Ukraine in Ukraine, no the US/Israel in Iraq — is flying over defended territory and dropping bombs. When airplanes get involved, they use stand-off munitions, air-launched missiles or at best JDAMs.
But, as I said, “Not an expert….”
White House Scrambles to Downplay Shockingly Well-Timed Bets
https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-scrambles-to-downplay-suspicious-bets-right-before-big-donald-trump-moves/
‘We negotiate with bombs’: US secretary of war Pete Hegseth’s warning to Iran as Trump talks peace
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/we-negotiate-with-bombs-us-secretary-of-war-pete-hegseths-warning-to-iran-as-trump-talks-peace/amp_articleshow/129790770.cms
I wonder about that Pete Hegseth when he says stuff like that. He is trying to make out that he is a big macho man but frankly he strikes me more of a wuss. Maybe he is just a psychopath but he is definitely broken. And he really knows how to suck up to Trump when he makes one of his speeches. The British withstood the bombs of the Blitz as did the Germans later on in the war so negotiating with bombs is not going to work. And the evidence shows that bombing them only increases the Iranians resolve. Being a nation that has a history stretching back up to five thousands years and is at the pivot point of the world economy, they are not going away and they will come roaring back. I am reminded here of Admiral Yamamato’s quote after the attack on Pearl Harbour-
‘I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve’
“Metrosexual” is how Yves describes Pretty Boy Pete…
ive settled on ‘ that dry-drunk frat boy with the creepy crusader fetish’.
i think it fits like a condom(small), and will stick with it.
do check out the boychilds mandatory prayer sessions in the fivesided money pit…they’re a doozy.
“He is trying to make out that he is a big macho man but frankly he strikes me more of a wuss.”
I was wondering about that “we are negotiating with bombs”, and so looked at the extract of the press conference where he uttered these words. It is something I usually do not do. The only other such event involving Hegseth that I looked at was (moments of) his address to the generals about doing push-ups and trimming hair.
I was surprised by his all body language during the “negotiate with bombs” speech. The flow of speech — slightly too fast, piling up explanations and justifications in rapid succession; the hasty movements and changes of posture; the head turning back to Trump, as if seeking approval or confirmation.
His lack of poise contrasted with his composure in front of the generals. I got the impression that he got truly bad news from the military, is overwhelmed by the situation, and is losing self-assurance. His role as Secretary of War must be way above his head, and he does not have the confidence to deal with the mayhem that Israel and the USA unleashed.
He would be over his head as a battalion commander
Squad?
Boy Scout troop?
I’m just impressed he manages to appear halfway sober in public these days.
‘We negotiate with bombs’ is such a spectacularly tin-eared line in this context and at this moment, as well. Iran’s reason for not entering negotiations is BECAUSE they were used on two occasions to line up decapitation strikes. How would Iran not take this as a threat to do the same thing a third time? Could there be any worse statement to make if the White House is trying to convince the US public that negotiations are really truly happening?
A former Deputy Defense Secretary, under Richard Nixon, stated 11 simple rules for successfully dealing with people.
This was Dave Packard, of Hewlett-Packard, in 1958.
The first rule is “Think first of the other fellow ”
https://fs.blog/dave-packards-11-simple-rules/
Trump and his minions seem incapable of learning anything of import.
It is not the first time US has been negotiating with bombs. Didn’t Nixon do the same in Vietnam? Or In the Korean war? Talking with Putin on the phone to track him down and drone him?
I am really looking for the change of guard in Kremlin.
Pars Today has just “retweeted” someone’s – allegedly, a professor of molecular biology at the U of Missouri – tweet (screenshot at https://t.me/parstodayrussian/199080#), which reads, in English:
This does not seem to me like an easy to resolve knock-on effect. Even if the magical thinking traders have it right – Murban crude (Gulf blend) futures are back at $100 this morning, from being in $140s late last week, even though nothing has actually changed on the ground…
Not to denigrate cancer patients and others who need an MRI; they have my full sympathies and I hope they get better. But a helium shortage for MRI machines will not even be a blip on the radar of problems that are coming. Percentage of the population that need an MRI scan right now is pretty low. Percentage of the population that need food is 100%. When there are food riots and gas riots and political riots and blood is running in the streets, advanced medical imaging will be a low priority concern.
We are *just* starting to get a glimpse of this in Asia. The brown stuff is starting to make contact with the fan.
“The fewmets have hit the windmill”
But how to implement change without some food induced revolutions, eh?! Without the desperate French and Russian women waiting in lines in the winter for bread we wouldn’t have had the French and the Bolshevik revolutions…
My entire family needs to loose some good amount of pounds.
i broke into the 100# pinto bean storage this morning and planted a bunch of those hither and yon, in blank spots between where ive already planted a bunch of stuff.
im goin long on garden, for the first time since Tam got sick, almost 8 years ago(!).
after whats already planted is up, and when the baby plants in flats in little greenhouse go forth, i’ll likely plant some of the black and maricabo beans, too.(heat tolerant)
i maintain a rather large dried bean and rice reserve.
I am looking for that too, and I am going to put beans where I used to grow potatoes, because I find it more productive/cost efficient.
Offering “sanctions relief” is the equivalent of offering nothing.
A while back, in a podcast by Sayed Marandi, he noted that sanctions relief under the JCPOA was illusory. Obama took the benefits of the JCPOA but privately pressured nations not to trade with Iran – thus gutting any potential Iranian benefit.
Is Iran supposed to believe that Trump would be any more honorable?
Geopolitical consequences may be nice, but for me the practical reasons are the main drivers for Iran wanting Hormuz transit fees paid in Yuan. Avoid potential sanctions etc by bypassing the dollar system and also where are they going to use that money? America and Europe? Pffft. If China anyway, then might as well collect Yuan.
America is going great
Fuel vs food: These Americans are cutting back to afford higher gas prices (CNN)
I’m sure that the first thing Ellison will do when he takes over CNN is to stop all such annoying reporting.
As you say, America is going great, and anything that undermines that message will no longer be tolerated by Fox News 2.0.
Everything you need to know about how screwed we are pre-collapse.
As I continue to read delusional ‘news’ about the war, Trump’s blatantly false claims, and see markets soaking it up, I return to the comment I made last night:
“I’ve been wondering if full Orwellian media control is the strategy–invent a narrative in which Trump wins while in fact capitulating, persuade R voters it’s true, have Trump watch it play on Fox, persuade other media not to report the counterfactual…the actual factual…
But I don’t think it works because reality increasingly bites.”
We live in a time of such manipulated “information” streams that perhaps Team Trump (whoever that is) might think it plausible.
I think it’s real that Team Trump wants a way out (if he can look good), but Team Zionist doesn’t want an end, but instead escalation, and who knows on any given day who is calling the shots in D.C.
Perhaps the global pain from this war will result in the world turning on Trump and Israel, decisively. But as rational as it seems that would be, not seeing much reporting of such (but the delusional content of so much reporting is high, so the lack of coverage doesn’t make clear that there is no growing, tectonic shifts in that regard.
I read in the comments various storylines justifying this war as a purposeful extension of pre-existing plans of global domination and destruction (not justifying in the sense of cheering on, just, in an explanatory mode, seeking to understand the decision to join Israel in attacking Iran. Maybe, but I doubt it. Occam’s razor & all that.
I think the decision was a dumb mistake based on fundamentally misunderstanding what would happen, and the war became a tar baby Trump doesn’t know how to end, though he does know how to maximize his and his friends’ profit extraction through market manipulation while the situation continues.
Re the juggling analogy the other day, at some point the objects will fall; then we will see the scale of the destruction this war will ultimately wreak. Either dropping the objects will reflected deflated impotence and signal a whimpering end, or they will be dropped because escalation became so catastrophic the objects vaporized.
Meanwhile my anxiety has become near paralyzing, and I appreciate being able to come here for actual information about the situation, since it’s such a rare commodity these days.
When Salazar came out of his coma in Portugal, his retainers allowed him to believe until his death that he was still in power, though he had been replaced at the helm for awhile.
I’ve wondered the same thing. Maybe Trump declares victory and shuts the whole thing down. Of course Iran would keep attacking and Israel would keep attacking, but he can declare all of that to be fake news. Stubbornly high and increasing oil prices could be the work of the traitorous Antifa Democrats, and so on.
I don’t think it would work, but I do think it’s possible he might try it. Israel seems like the main fly in the ointment – if Netanyahu escalates once more, I don’t see how he avoids being drawn in.
Listening to Karen Kwiatkowski on Judge Nap earlier talking about Hegseth idolising special forces types and not understanding the normal soldier.
It has me more seriously pondering if they are dumb enough to try a flashy raid for the uranium (supposedly) buried at Isfahan. It makes no sense, but I’m not sure that’s a reason they wouldn’t do it. It would appeal to both Hegseth’s Delta Force humping, and Donald’s simplistic brain.
The flights listed yesterday were mostly from home bases of Special Forces, Rangers, Airborne, Air Assault, and Seal units. That’s the elites, plus the Marines on the ships.
What is concerning is that most serious military people do not expect any ground commitment, raid or whatever, to be successful, and may even be a debacle. Based on the flights and very poor OpSec that’s basically saying which units are being committed, that’s the top tier of US ground forces going into a situation where success is unlikely at best. Should (when?) those units get rendered combat ineffective, what’s left is the B-team and other units (armor) that can’t be deployed easily or effectively. Then what happens?
Most Americans say US military action against Iran has gone too far, a new AP-NORC poll finds
https://apnews.com/article/poll-iran-trump-war-oil-gas-prices-2abd1ea4a81f3339cebadd5480fb863b
Israel using white phosphorus to scorch earth in south Lebanon, researcher says
Human Rights Watch and others say they have documented use of weapon in civilian areas, which some argue is illegal
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/25/israel-white-phosphorus-south-lebanon-researchers
WP is not a banned munition. The targeting is the war crime, and would be a war crime no matter what munition was used.
Trump confirms Saudi crown prince is pushing him to continue Iran war
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/world/trump-confirms-saudi-crown-prince-is-pushing-him-to-continue-iran-war-3216835
Heh, but did he commit to paying for the request? I hear Trump is collecting checks.
What did the Magic Orb say?
Trump is throwing everyone but himself under the bus, isn’t he?
Sweating bones that princling, eh?! With Iran victorious across the Gulf, the Saudi monarchy is in double jeopardy. It is the ideological appeal for the masses. The animosity has nothing to do with Shi’a vs Sunni, but with some modicum of popular run polity vs a baddly corrupted autocracy.
https://indi.ca/the-arab-apostates-are-history/
Are Israeli COVID infections ticking up because of being packed air raid shelters?
That’s a good point that. Something that most people would never think about. A whole bunch of people crammed into an underground shelter with someone coughing in the background? Not a good picture.
Iran rejects U.S. ceasefire offer, demands sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-us-trump.html
Iran ready to seize Bahrain and UAE coastlines if US ‘makes a mistake’, Iranian expert warns
National security analyst Morteza Simiari warned Iran is ready to ‘fundamentally alter the regional landscape’
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-ready-seize-bahrain-and-uae-coastlines-if-us-makes-mistake-iranian-expert-warns#:~:text=Youtube-,Iran%20ready%20to%20seize%20Bahrain%20and%20UAE%20coastlines%20if%20US,New%20MEE%20newsletter:%20Jerusalem%20Dispatch
This observation might be laughable, but: if the Mongols defeated them, then the west can not.
Okay. Maybe it’s too much. Sorry.
The last occupation of Iran, in a time when Iran was at its weakest maybe, was during WWII, when the Soviets from the north and GB from the south occupied Iran.
It seems to me that neither Germany nor Japan could have been defeated without the very major contribution of Russia and China. Oh, oh, remind me, who is helping Iran now?
As for Israel, in the big scheme of things it is just a speck on the windshield.
Your dose of hopium today from genocide booster Stephens at the NY Times oped
The War Is Going Better Than You Think (NY Times)
Goes over a very long list of other bungles, claims none of these have happened yet in Iran.
And that’s literally the whole argument he makes.
LOL.
He tried to open up with his sophistry gun and the clip is empty. Oops.
Baghdad Bob vibes?
I really like this formulation, although it’s probably more accurate to say the US is keeping up an appearance of negotiating while it readies itself to do something else, either prop up the stock market or launch some kind of doomed boots on the ground effort.
Both sides in this war have put forward proposals for how to end it. The fact that the US has utterly ignored Iranian proposals has somehow created the widespread idea that Iran is not willing to negotiate.
At any rate, this is not going to be a war that is stopped by negotiations, very much like the Ukrainian war. The outcome will be decided militarily, which has somehow become the United States’ weakest suit.
We have clearly reached the gaslighting phase of the Trump/Netanyahu PR campaign. The target audience is not the Iranians, but the American and international public. It reminds me of something an abusive husband would say the morning after the latest beating: “I’ve been so good to her, and look what she made me do!”
Yes. That’s the way I see it too.
Trump’s peace proposal is gaslighting for the American and international public.
This nonstarter was proposed so it could be rejected. I think the goal is to portray the Iranians as not interested in peace. That gives Trump-Netanyahu “space” to continue a holy war that is unpopular among the Western public.
I think many people underestimate how fragile civil society in the USA has become, it is, IMO on the edge of collapse.
If this War stopped today the disruption of supply chains are already serious enough to cause a serious recession ( Or worse) at home.
People who can not afford to feed themselves or their children get upset, we will very likely be seeing food riots well before the end of the year and American Troops stationed in American Cities to quell the unrest.
Trump is capable of declaring that the governments of blue states have been infiltrated by ANTIFA! to the extent that Martial Law is necessary to “Preserve our Freedoms”.
It’s gonna be lit.
I am shocked at how jaded some socialists are. Socialism will have to fight like mad to organize properly, but the conditions for a revival of a strong left are brewing.
Thankfully, facism is showing self destructive tendencies, but of course will remain extremely dangerous until they are disarmed.
This crisis and probable depression won’t cause a revolution but could radicalize +1,000,000 Americans into hot blooded socialists.
I hope most lefties can see this. Its a really good time to reach out and recruit.
A strong left? In the United States? The so called left abandoned their principles, had they any, by abandoning masking and airborne mitigations during the ongoing Pandemic, when it become inconvenient to do so. A Pandemic that most directly threatens the working class, particularly low income workers and minorities, that cannot work remotely or afford to pay for their own PPE constantly.
So much for solidarity. When shit got real, no one on the ostensible left could be bothered.
“ostensible” – correct.
That was not the left.
The left:
The left, left.
The Left:
Cutrone asks: What if the US wins?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxLoqf0zBIk
Some form of socialism is inevitable if there is going to be a future for the human race. Not saying this is going to be easy. Late stage capitalism, ain’t so fun to witness. A lot of hurt worldwide.
Thanks again for these posts.
Here, I’m going to take a wide swing away from this particular and daunting Iran war (WWIII ?) to ask, how in the hell did our vaunted Western leaders lose all common sense, forget their duty to their own countries and countrymen and women, and continue to stumble headlong into one disaster after another?
My answer: they are all captive of the neoliberal economic doctrine. What ever the Market wants is good, and what the Market wants is higher prices. This includes higher payouts from lobbyists to individual politicians. “Market forces, baby!”
No need to think, only obey Market forces.
So the West has been dismantling itself for 30 years. And now this debacle in he Middle East, where all the Western leaders are Waiting for Godot, or The Market force to save them. Thus sanctions, etc. / imo
2 Paras from Neoliberalism: The Movement That Dare Not Speak Its Name. – by Philip Mirowski
“In a nutshell, classical liberalism imagined a night watchman state that would set the boundaries for the natural growth of the market, like a shepherd tending his flock. Markets were born, not made. The principles of good governance and liberty would be dictated by natural rights of individual humans, or perhaps by the prudent accretion of tradition. People needed to be nurtured first to find themselves, in order to act as legitimate citizens in liberal society. Society would be protected from the disruptive character of the market by something like John Stuart Mill’s “harm principle”: colloquially, the freedom of my fist stops at the freedom of your face. The neoliberals were having none of that, and explicitly said so.
“Far from trying to preserve society against the unintended consequences of the operations of markets, as democratic liberalism sought to do, neoliberal doctrine instead set out actively to dismantle those aspects of society which might resist the purportedly inexorable logic of “catallactics,” and to reshape it in the market’s image. For neoliberals, freedom and the market would be treated as identical. Their rallying cry was to remove the foundation of liberty from natural rights or tradition, and reposition it upon an entirely novel theory concerning what a market was, or should be. They could not acknowledge individual natural rights, because they sought to tutor the masses to become the agent the market would be most likely to deem successful. The market no longer gave you what you wanted; you had to capitulate to what the market wanted. …”
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/02/neoliberalism-movement-dare-not-speak-name/
What difference does it make addressing this aspect of what’s happened to Western leaders now, in the midst of an approaching disaster for the world?
It matters, I think, to discredit once and for all the economic theory that, imo, has brought us to this point. In a nutshell, neoliberals know the price of everything and the value of nothing. (Like the value of maintaining an in-country manufacturing base, for example.)
The WEF meeting next year in Davos should be interesting. Globalism as lead by the West is being destroyed.
It’s like Yves says, flora, only Mr. Market will make the rubes running things right now reconsider their actions. So you’re right on in your analysis. It’s all a neoliberal con. Rule 1: Markets Rule 2: Go die.
However, the religious fanatics and the Zionist faction are willing to consider other rules that are either supernatural or purely Nietzschian in nature, to justify their actions.
Yes indeed flora.
Neo liberalism started the brain rot.
Before that the Empire was certainly evil but looking back, it was certainly effective.
Not anymore.
Well, on reflection the wars in Vietnam and Korea predated neoliberalism and they weren’t what you could call victories.
Something else was also happening, obviously.
I think that it is much worse than that. Below is a quote from Aurelien’s essay of January 6, 2026, ‘The Politics of Destruction’ which discusses liberalism as it became to be conceptualized in the late 17th to early 18th centuries. Followed by a comment that I made in response to this essay.
‘The trouble is that, as I said at the beginning, human beings do not come in boxes with instructions for working together, and they do not spontaneously self-organise.’
Yet our ‘enlightenment’ forebearers who theorized man in a state of nature and subsequent social contracts as defining social order would have us believe this to be true. Yes indeed, we are very much in an embalming strength pickle.
That is liberalism of all varieties proceeds from some mythical idea of man in a state of nature (which there is no historical or archeological evidence ever existed) and that homo sapiens as individuals somehow came together to form a ‘social compact’ or ‘social contract’ if you prefer. Hobbesian political thought first and then later Lockean thought both share the same etiology.
The United States is in a particularly bad way as it is the one country that institutionally at its inception presupposed liberal ideology to be true. Consider the flowery language, ‘we hold these truths to be self evident… life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness’ which is directly taken from John Locke who wrote of ‘life, liberty and the pursuit of property’. Not only are they not self evident, but they are patently false as Aurelien argues in his January 6 essay.
Tom Stone above writes, ‘I think many people underestimate how fragile civil society in the USA has become, it is, IMO on the edge of collapse.’ I expect he is correct. There’s absolutely no glue that holds USian society together except some concept of individual freedom which in itself is antisocial. It’s not like individual USians even agree as to what this concept is. And indeed, USian political debate at root comes down to this.
That’s not to say that other western counties aren’t liberal. They are. That is our common inheritance as well as our common predicament. (Flora as you say, neoliberalism.) In countries other than the US, liberal ideology is tempered by customs and morals that went before (but admittedly, less and less). Are Canada and the US different? I think so. Canadians that could articulate it would call this the ‘Tory Touch’. In the case of the US, the customs and morals of this strand of thinking was chased off. USians talk about their ‘revolution’. In truth, it wasn’t revolutionary. I think it can be more accurately described as a civil war between competing factions, the Tories and the Whigs. And many of the Whigs in England at the time in fact were sympathetic to the rebellion in North America. So I think it is fair to say the fullest North American experience is that which is found in Canada. In the larger scheme of things, the US is more of an aberration. Personally, I think the US’ vocation is eventually to disappear. I’m not sure what that would mean for Canada. At any rate, the US will continue to implode as the former Soviet Union did. Like the Soviet Union, the US is a progenesis of a materialist ideology rather than a people with a received Tradition. The US decomposition is just taking longer for a variety reasons that I don’t want to enumerate now.
I will say in conclusion that on balance Canadian society is more cohesive than USian society despite its own problems. US society is truly a melting pot with all the tensions therein. Canadian society is more of a mosaic, much as I imagine Iranian society is. After all, Iran is multi-ethnic and per Seyed Marandi multi-confessional. Both Jews and Christians are very much part of Iranian society as well as having representation in the Iranian parliament.
As I said in my response to Aurelien’s essay, yes indeed we in the west are very much in an embalming strength pickle. Unfortunately for USians, the embalming pickle just happens to be of magnitudes greater strength.
Yves, I want to say thank you as well for all of your hard work. I read NC every day.
Reader Ann also. The links that you provide add a great deal to the commentariat’s discussion.
I
Dt1964, all of that is well put. Especially thanks to Yves and Ann who is super productive on the links.
The point about liberal creation myths is, obviously, that they were invented after a stable society was already in place. When law, property, modern states and the cash economy were in being liberal individualism became possible. Was even a convenient fiction in the new capitalist world that had been created out of the wreckage of the commons and feudalism.
That’s what Marx described.
But, that does not address how home sapiens got to that level after the basic Neanderthal level.
Our intrinsic advantage as a species MUST have been some form of egalitarian cooperation or we would never have escaped from the Hobbesian state of nature that is supposed to be the real reality.
We are a cooperative, socialistic species by design. Neo Liberalism is, thus, an anti human aberration.
So, any neo liberals you see out there need wooden stakes through their hearts (if you can hit such a small target).
I think that it is worse than that. Below is a quote from Aurelien’s essay of January 6, 2026, ‘The Politics of Destruction’ which discusses liberalism as it became to be conceptualized in the late 17th to early 18th centuries. Followed by a comment that I made in response to this essay.
‘The trouble is that, as I said at the beginning, human beings do not come in boxes with instructions for working together, and they do not spontaneously self-organise.’
Yet our ‘enlightenment’ forebearers who theorized man in a state of nature and subsequent social contracts as defining social order would have us believe this to be true. Yes indeed, we are very much in an embalming strength pickle.
That is liberalism of all varieties proceeds from some mythical idea of man in a state of nature (which there is no historical or archeological evidence ever existed) and that homo sapiens as individuals somehow came together to form a ‘social compact’ or ‘social contract’ if you prefer. Hobbesian political thought first and then later Lockean thought both share the same etiology.
The United States is in a particularly bad way as it is the one country that institutionally at its inception presupposed liberal ideology to be true. Consider the flowery language, ‘we hold these truths to be self evident… life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness’ which is directly taken from John Locke who wrote of ‘life, liberty and the pursuit of property’. Not only are they not self evident, but they are patently false as Aurelien argues in his January 6 essay.
Tom Stone above writes, ‘I think many people underestimate how fragile civil society in the USA has become, it is, IMO on the edge of collapse.’ I expect he is correct. There’s absolutely no glue that holds USian society together except some concept of individual freedom which in itself is antisocial. It’s not like individual USians even agree as to what this concept is. And indeed, USian political debate at root comes down to this.
That’s not to say that other western counties aren’t liberal. They are. That is our common inheritance as well as our common predicament. (Flora as you say, neoliberalism.) In countries other than the US, liberal ideology is tempered by customs and morals that went before (but admittedly, less and less). Are Canada and the US different? I think so. Canadians that could articulate it would call this the ‘Tory Touch’. In the case of the US, the customs and morals of this strand of thinking was chased off. USians talk about their ‘revolution’. In truth, it wasn’t revolutionary. I think it can be more accurately described as a civil war between competing factions, the Tories and the Whigs. And many of the Whigs in England at the time in fact were sympathetic to the rebellion in North America. So I think it is fair to say the fullest North American experience is that which is found in Canada. In the larger scheme of things, the US is more of an aberration. Personally, I think the US’ vocation is eventually to disappear. I’m not sure what that would mean for Canada. At any rate, the US will continue to implode as the former Soviet Union did. Like the Soviet Union, the US is a progenesis of a materialist ideology rather than a people with a received Tradition. The US decomposition is just taking longer for a variety reasons that I don’t want to enumerate now.
I will say in conclusion that on balance Canadian society is more cohesive than USian society despite its own problems. US society is truly a melting pot with all the tensions therein. Canadian society is more of a mosaic, much as I imagine Iranian society is. After all, Iran is multi-ethnic and per Seyed Marandi multi-confessional. Both Jews and Christians are very much part of Iranian society as well as having representation in the Iranian parliament.
As I said in my response to Aurelien’s essay, yes indeed we in the west are very much in an embalming strength pickle. Unfortunately for USians, the embalming pickle just happens to be of magnitudes greater strength.
Yves, I want to say thank you as well for all of your hard work. I read NC every day.
Reader Ann also. The links that you provide add a great deal to the commentariat’s discussion.
I was just flipping through Youtube channels and watched part of today’s Glenn Diesen interview with Jeffrey Sachs. Sachs was saying Trump has neurological problems and that he is exhibiting dementia and speech dysfunction.
I can’t actually stomach listening to Trump anymore so I haven’t listened to him for a long time. So I hadn’t noticed. But can anyone who is familiar with Trumptalk chime in on this?
With Biden, there were clear and obvious signs of speech degradation that was undeniable to anyone (except the US news media which always lies and covers up stuff). I remember there were compilation videos that showed a younger Biden talking and the dementia Biden talking…. the difference was like night and day.
Is there such a video exploring Trump’s speech decline? I would like to hear it for myself.
I am no expert but as has been said here before it may not be dementia as such but we are seeing very noticeable cogitative decline. He is showing definite speech dysfunctions. Just spent even 5 minutes listening to him at a 2025 campaign speech painful as it may be and then google just about any interview from 20 years ago. The differences are shocking.
Well, I’m not a medico, but I do want to put in my 2 cents here.
First: I’m less interested in how T says what he says than in what he says.
Second: He’s an older person, nearly 80, and older people can have hearing difficulties such that they do not clearly hear the sounds they are making. Older people can have tinnitus, or increasing deafness, etc. Also, older people can have mouth and tongue muscles decreasing strength if not used daily on a wide basis. (Probably not the case with T.)
So, these things considered, I don’t regard T’s physical verbal ability as dispositive. It is what he is saying that’s more important, imo.
Back in January “IM Doc” checked in with a comment in which he suggested that Trump might be a victim of what is known as white matter disease.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/01/links-1-19-2026.html#comment-4360101
Thank you! I watched that in its entirety found in another feed. It is an incisive exposition of where we are at.
The link is here:
Jeffrey Sachs: Iran is the Graveyard of American Hegemony
Others may already be noting this, but Iran authorizing some shipping through is a master stroke–it shows Iran to be in charge, not the US. Commerce that benefits it economically, excludes we and our allies. And if the Strait is clogged with commerce, including around Kharg, that would have to limit military activity, no?
Just a short time ago, the US Navy was de jure guarantor of ALL global ship traffic. Now. we can´t guarantee our own ships traffic through the strait. By attacking Iran, Trump demonstrated this continuing liability to the world. It’s in no way clear that we can ever recover such status.
If you believed that trope – which is yet another example of US BS-ing its way around: the strongest military force on the universe…. US Navy’s actual role was to interdict the free passage of “enemy” vessels. This is why we had for some years now all the histeria in the high Arctic, because the US Navy cannot do squat to block the NE Passage.
And apparently cannot do squat in the Persian Gulf and the Staits of Hormuz or Bab el Mandeb.
Adding to my above comment: I think the Robert’s SC decision known as Citizens United was favorable to the neoliberals. Summation of the decision’s effect, per Wiki:
The Roberts Court’s decision in Citizens United v. FEC (2010) ruled that restrictions on independent political spending by corporations and unions violate the First Amendment’s free speech protections. This landmark ruling significantly increased the influence of money in politics by allowing unlimited spending in elections, leading to the rise of super PACs and other outside spending groups.
Absolutely. They have trained us all to see the political realm through red/blue liberal/conservative phony tribal black/white (read: racialized and Manichean) spectacles, so well that we really struggle to see events unfold before us. To my mind, this has become the clearest distinction between liberal Dems and progressives–progressives have at least some inkling of these matters. . .
I remember returning from a stint in Spain 15 years ago and remarking that almost any educated person on the street there could tell you what neoliberalism is/was, and any lefty possessing a critique of the conjuncture (loss of social welfare protections, erosion of the commons/social sphere, etc.). Here we are in 2025 with neoliberalism’s contradictions killing us, pretty literally, and most Americans are still not generally able to describe the beast that bit them. They sure don´t teach it in most universities, let alone our history; and if the DeSantises of this world have their way, they never will.
Most liberals do not want to give up their increasingly marginal advantages anyway, they just don´t want their noses rubbed in the ugly. Get them on the subject of what they might have to give up to effect real change, suddenly they’re spouting the same stuff about how hard they worked, how lazy [fill in the blanks, for liberals it is poor whites] are. . . the complete repudiation of class as analytic category just as we move to levels of wealth inequality that out-rival Louis Seize France.
Matthew, see my response to Flora above. USians are not able to understand neoliberalism or any other flavour of liberalism because liberalism is institutionally and culturally what the US has always been. How can one understand anything other than liberalsim when one is in fact viewing the world through the liberal prism, yet not know it. USians presume their particular prism to be universally true. Which of course, it is not.
By a long series of bad decisions by both Congress and the Supreme Court the US has lost the ability to restrain their executive government in large measure. Eventually if they can’t reverse this they are finished as an organised modern state. Because the Empire is now essentially financial in nature it will endure in some form as long as people take US paper in some form or other.
US resources are becoming strained and the abundance movement means other people’s resources will have to be stolen by financial or military means. The Permian in Texas is already starting to gas out, although the Permian in New Mexico is still going strong for now, so going forwards the petroleum deficit will make a re-appearance as well.
The US is going to need full control over Canadian resources to be able to act outside its hemisphere if it is effectively ousted from the Middle East and Europe. It is all real politik now and because both Russia and China are neo-liberal in economic terms as well there is no relief in sight for working people anywhere.
The more I think about this, the US and Israel can’t keep up operational tempo forever; it is vastly costlier than for Iran. The longer this continues, the greater the advantage to Iran. I don’t see a quick resolution. This isn’t existential for America. It is for Iran. As we’re in the middle of week 4 I just point out the obvious.
Brian Berletic has been stressing the maintenance issue. Keeping airplanes in the air is very maintenance intensive. Col. Wilkerson is suggesting 22 hours of maintenance for one hour of flight for an F-35.
I remember being told that back in the 1980’s that it took 24 hours of maintenance for every F-16 flight out of a Saudi base on the coast of the Gulf and this was in pressured hangers with protection from the ubiquitous sand dust that could pass for talcum powder.
I don’t know what the conditions are like on Prince Sultan Air Base or other West Asia air fields but I doubt there are enough pressured hangers to accommodate the number of planes that the USA is reported to have in the region.
Maintenance crews are probably approaching exhaustion.
And remember the maintenance crews are staffed from the manufacture, not Air Force personnel. Charging $400 to $600 an hour from what I saw on a reliable YT channel.
It’s unsettling that the market would react favourably to Trump’s erratic announcements, every single time. It’s clearly manipulation.
But it clearly has an upper limit. The 1929 market crash was postponed a couple of times by a combo of propping and confidence building mumbo jumbo. But in the end they failed.
Good sobering discussion on Danny Davis’ show this morning with Professor Pape. Highly recommend watching.
Touches on
* the sophisticated moves of Iran, both military and political
* the need for the US to take Iran seriously. This isn’t the KC Chiefs playing a high school team, we’re not the super bowl winning chiefs and our opponent is another NFL team
* the historic pattern of escalation that occurs as political concerns lead to repeated doubling down after small troop deployments and deaths (a type of sunk cost fallacy in play) as seen in Vietnam
Pape argues that this period, before boots hit the ground, is the last best chance to avert a disaster, politically in the US, and globally.
Oh, this is KC Chiefs playing a high school team–it’s just that we are the high school team and the Chiefs are playing in disguise.
The group allegedly behind burning ambulances in London apparently can’t spell Arabic, and refers to Palestine as The Land of Israel.
‘No Islamic group, ever, referred to “The Land of Israel” and the phrase in Arabic is not even what complicit Gulf Arab elites use – they use just “Israel” or “The State of Israel”. “The Land of Israel” is unnatural in Arabic and evidently written by a Zionist and translated into Arabic…. To add further to this, the group’s published logo appears to be AI-generated and the Arabic lettering on it is wrong. “Islamic” is rendered incorrectly and some of it doesn’t mean anything coherent at all – it is gibberish, presumably constructed by AI asked to produce a shield with Arabic lettering.’
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2026/03/the-london-ambulances-attack-of-course-it-was-a-false-flag/
Iran’s missiles pierce Israel’s defenses, raising doubts about interceptors
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/25/iran-missiles-israel-air-defense/
Trump Accused of ‘Giving His Mates Inside Information’ to Make Big Bets on Market in Fiery Speech from British Lawmaker
A British lawmaker on Wednesday accused President Donald Trump of insider trading in light of unusual market activity before his announcement that Iran was engaged in peace talks.
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump-accused-of-giving-his-mates-inside-information-to-make-big-bets-on-market-in-fiery-speech-from-british-lawmaker/
Netanyahu seeks to avoid snap vote as Iran war gives no boost in polls
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-seeks-avoid-snap-vote-iran-war-gives-no-boost-polls-2026-03-25/
Israel’s death penalty bill for Palestinian prisoners moves to final vote
Legislation initiated by far-right Otzma Yehudit party drew mounting criticism from opponents and rights groups as it moved through the Knesset
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/25/israels-death-penalty-bill-for-palestinian-prisoners-moves-to-final-vote
U.S. ramps up fuel exports to Cuba’s private sector: Reuters
HAVANA/HOUSTON — U.S. suppliers have shipped approximately 30,000 barrels of fuel to Cuba’s private sector this year to date, according to documents and shipping data viewed by Reuters, suggesting a Trump administration plan to give private business a leg up over state-run enterprise is well underway.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/us-ramps-up-fuel-exports-to-cubas-private-sector-reuters/
UK and Turkey sign multi-billion-pound air defence deal
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/uk-turkey-sign-multi-billion-pound-air-defence-deal-2026-03-25/
Exclusive: At least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations show
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/least-40-russias-oil-export-capacity-halted-reuters-calculations-show-2026-03-25/
That last headline is an eye opener. Do you suppose this is going to push the Russians into “doing something”? Another question, above my pay grade, who’s taking the delivery side side hit, because if it’s China, they may consider doing something as well. When does the option of waiting for the US to self-implode become too costly?
I am sure Alexander Mercouris will be all over this like a cheap suit.. This is an area where he has expertise.
Even if Russia has closed some operations, it is based on attacks on Wed. ONE FUCKING DAY LATER. Russia may simply have shut them out of an abundance of caution for inspection. There is no basis for making assertions like the ones in the headlines.
Thanks, I should have added “big if true”. It’s quite a claim.
I didn’t meant to sound like I was chewing you out. I am annoyed at Reuters spinning the story way too hard.
One paradoxical thing is that, if events like these pile up, it would give Russians excuse to deny the Europeans oil and gas, even indirectly. Now that Middle Eastern sources are imperiled, Europeans are supposedly rethinking cutting off the indirect flow from Russia…but who says Russia wants to play that game? And, if the Ukies say that they have had great success atttacking Russia energy infrastructure, Russians can cut off Euros from oil and gas without saying “we just don’t like you.”
Daniel Davis talks again with Robert Pape, a specialist on escalatory spirals who’s modeled an Iran conflict for years, if not decades. I don’t think it much of an exaggeration to describe his hair as aflame.
He answers a question that’s been rattling around: what will be the public reaction to American casualties in a ground attack? (Jump to about 29:50.) He says the 40% support for the war will “temporarily harden” and drive further commitment.
Which may be the point of Kellogg’s nonsensical Kharg Island promptings. The objective wouldn’t be military but political.
On that topic Pape has a number of disquieting things to say, particularly about the midterms. SMH, in caps.
re: Kellogg’s comment.
Paging Clausewitz:
“24. WAR IS A MERE CONTINUATION OF POLICY BY OTHER MEANS.
We see, therefore, that War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means. …. ”
From What Is War?
Caps emphasis in the original.
Here’s another Daniel Davis clip talking with Larry Johnson:
US Troop Deployment to IRAN Unfolding /Larry Johnson & Lt Col Daniel Davis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v39tak3uGOU
They don’t go over the political aspects, but Larry’s analysis of how it’s going to go once the boots hit the ground aligns extremely well.
Which means if boots hit the ground, the energy environment that is afflicting the world and causing “temporary measures” to handle may very well become by all practical measures, permanent.
Well, the world needs to be weaned off fossil fuels, but I never envisioned Trump as the “Green Energy” warrior he turned out to be. /sarc
Ukraine just took 40% (2 million barrels per day) of Russias Oil export volume out with drone strikes. Naturally oil futures are down
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/least-40-russias-oil-export-capacity-halted-reuters-calculations-show-2026-03-25/
We probably want to see second opinion on this. There was supposedly a big (450 drones) offensive by the Ukrainians the other day, but not a lot of words on what they did and Reuters has been parroting Ukrainian claims (almost invariably vastly exaggerated) for a long time.
Reading the local news in the Leningrad region, it seems that one of the two dozen oil tanks in Primorsk terminal caught fire on Monday, warranting evacuation of workers. By Tuesday the fire had been contained and apparently the port captain at no point stopped the traffic to and from the terminal.
Take that as you will.
The counting technique is peculiar. They slip unobtrusively from “this component is disrupted” to “this component has been reduced to zero”, which is demonstrably not the same thing. But to get to anything like 40% it would have to be.
I’ll never forget the time when Reuters falsely reported that Assad’s plane had crashed in Syria. We all know that he made it safely to Russia now. I really wish I had made a screenshot.
Nah, they didn’t. Ukrainians always claim they destroyed HUGE GINORMOUS BIGLY amounts of Russian oil/gas/ammunition/missiles with their feeble drone strikes, and the “western” news media always faithfully report Ukrainian claims as complete truths. Therefore Russians are totally out of ammo/missiles/oil/gas and they will be defeated VERY SOON and we just have to send more money to Ukraine. Typical war propaganda. It worked in 2022 and 2023 but nobody really pays attention to that anymore.
Reuters is UK-based, so they lie even more than the US media (hard to believe I know, than anyone can lie more than the American media)
Every time Ukraine claims to have destroyed X amount of Russian oil/gas, and you look at the actual volume of production coming out of Russia in the following several months, it always *increased*, not decreased. Alexander Mercouris religiously follows up on this stuff, and he says that all such Ukrainian claims have always been utter garbage.
Of course they can always check with the Russians to see if the Ukrainian claims are true, but nobody in the west ever does that. Never. Weird, right? Kind of like how Trump is making shit up right now about Iran, and the news media report on it as if it’s gospel, while never bothering to check with the Iranian government to verify Trump’s claims.
It does appear that Trump is intent on destroying global oil and gas supplies. I mean, who cares if another million barrels/day is lost on top of what has already been lost from the Gulf?
Or could this be Netanyahu’s payback via his clone Zelensky for Russia’s support of Iran?
Indi:
“Despite this war [US] against the world killing at least 5 million people from violence alone, plus tens of millions through sanctions (White word for sieges), nobody called it a World War because that can only come from a specific region in France or something, ie it has to bother White people.”
https://indi.ca/the-greatest-depression-is-coming-and-i-feel-fine/
Yesterday in the Iran War updates post comments I linked a couple of stories discussing the major impacts on the industries with chemical inputs. Today, there’s this tidbit from Al Jazeera (https://aje.news/ve6pos?update=4433698) and also a near(?) exact copy posted on France 24 as well:
International Chamber of Commerce warns of ‘worst industrial crisis in living memory’
John Denton, head of the International Chamber of Commerce, has warned the US-Israeli war on Iran could cause the “worst industrial crisis in living memory”.
“The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s,” said Denton.
“From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory – not only because of surging energy prices, but because industrial production itself is being disrupted and dislocated by shortages of gas and other essential inputs,” he added.
Denton was speaking on the eve of the meeting of World Trade Organization ministers in Yaounde, Cameroon.
Exclusive: US envoy suggests ‘big deal’ could normalize relations with Belarus
https://kyivindependent.com/us-envoy-suggests-big-deal-could-reopen-relations-with-belarus/
Iran warns its ready to open new front in Yemen, close Bab al-Mandab Strait with Houthis – report
“The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the strategic straits in the world, and Iran has the will to produce a completely credible threat against it,” an Iranian official told Tasnim.
Big. Can they do it?
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891193
The Tasmin link checks out. It’s not the Jerusalem Post making stuff up, and Iran isn’t particularly given to empty threats.
“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands or to inflict costs on Iran with naval movements in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, we will open other fronts for them as a surprise so that their action will not only be of no benefit to them but will also double their costs.”
This military source added, “The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the world’s strategic straits, and Iran has both the will and the ability to create a completely credible threat against it. Therefore, if the Americans want to think of a solution for the Strait of Hormuz with stupid measures, they should be careful not to add another strait to their problems and predicaments.”
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/25/3549108/opening-bab-al-mandeb-front-possible-in-case-of-enemy-provocation-in-southern-iran-source
https://archive.ph/FkcB3 without paywall
I said the archive link was without paywall. It is, but I should have said it’s in case the Tasnim link is slow or down.
Iranians should create their own 15 point peace plan and float it out there just to watch heads explode.
I’ve been wondering about the Houthis. With Iraq getting in gear to boot us out of their country and Houthis stirring, the gang’s all here.
Interesting bibi not calling snap election even though I recall a poll a couple weeks ago said about 73% of pop support the war. Maybe a new poll would be different? And afaik israel desal and elect plants not yet targeted.
Iran has released a diss track mocking Trumpenstein:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QYX2fcZdw0A
L.O.S.E.R. LOL
Lunch with MSMers here in Australia today. I ask specifically about their sense of things and I get a reasonably realistic view of events, perhaps not too much detail, not much awareness of consequences beyond the economic side of things, but overall pretty good. Nothing to do with the delusional fantasies about the Ukraine war. And it did not sound like a last minute turn acknowledging reality. My friends mentioned the ABC reporting (Australian public broadcaster) as their source, so there must have been a degree of realism in their reports from the beginning, or at least from very early on. (I have seen the occasional Murdoch press clip full of sound and fury, but that is fully expected).
So this time around, at least part of the MSM must be reporting reasonably well (given their standards).
The question is what is different with this war. And I would say that a significant factor is that this is Trump’s war, so all the people on the anti-Trump team are gleefully welcoming any bad news about the progress of the war. When real facts suit your political line, you don’t need any propaganda. And parts of the MSM can pander to that audience and earn themselves good journalism badges by simply adopting an anti-Trump line disguised as, for once, factual reporting.
On a different note, an anecdote heard this morning at the chemist here in Hobart. You know, Hobart, Tasmania, the end of the world, the super safe spot because it will be the last place on earth to be reached by any ailments afflicting the world. The flipside of that cost feeling, of course, is that, in a world of scarce oil, we may be the last ones being supplied, so all of a sudden a sudden sense of anxiety about oil availability may have developed that would explain what reportedly happened this morning in Taroona, a suburb spreading along the river bank, the estuary, really, that tankers that supply the city with petrol have to sail along to deliver their cargo. The word is that the Taroona Primary school kids lined up along the shore, handkerchiefs in hand, to welcome the ship. Isn’t that a fantastic anecdote? All that cuteness (they were primary school, but in my mind I imagine them as kindies) welcoming fossil fuel supplies? Isn’t that an expression of the full commitment of our future generations to maintaining our Australian way of life, values and all that? You would say an image coming out of an earlier, better, more reassuring era…
(I looked for confirmation of the anecdote in the local media, but couldn’t find any. However, I did find an article in the only local rag, The Mercury, about the arrival of the tanker. One of those docks every few days in Hobart, but for some reason, today’s deserved a full reassuring article in the paper. A whiff of anxiety in the air?)
Would they do the same for Chinese ships loaded with solar panels and efficient and cheaper EV cars and bikes of all sorts?
I don’t see any ominous immediate threats that a load of e-things would dispel… Not the same emotional charge.
Anyway, the kids were probably told: hey! if we run out of petrol you will have to walk to school! and they all ran to the shore to greet their saviours. Ha.
Mass text in Iran promotes Trump assassination campaign, $25m pledged
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603256203
Hezbollah chief rejects talks with Israel under fire, vows fighters will continue ‘without limits’
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-chief-rejects-talks-with-israel-under-fire-vows-fighters-will-continue-2026-03-25/
Now the Bellylaugh’s wondering about the future of the petrodollar:
“Trump’s war in the region is challenging the assumptions that underpin the dollar’s dominance. The world began trading oil in dollars because Gulf countries were assured the US would protect them. However, the US-Israeli strikes on Iran have provoked attacks on Middle Eastern nations not involved, from Saudi Arabia to Qatar.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/25/trumps-war-in-iran-threatens-to-topple-the-dollar/
https://archive.ph/NgGUM
Iranian news reports via IRGC release that the IRGC Navy shot down a navy fighter near Chabahar, includes alleged social media video. (strikes prepping for Gallipolli 2?)
Let’s see if the US Navy confirms or denies.
https://x.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/2036857958752280835 (Twitter should auto-translate Farsi)
Denied around thirty minutes ago.
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2036869094595568037
I’d like to know what that jet was doing flying that low and slow over Chabahar city.
https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/2036880714772160757#m
Sounds like a manpad took a bite out it’s rear.
Also up at Al Mayadeen, with other videos from different angles claiming to be of the same incident – https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iranian-forces-hit-us-f-18–challenging-us-claims-of-air-sup
Bloomberg can barely contain their skepticism of the diplomacy off-ramp
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/trump-faces-fresh-iran-demands-as-he-looks-to-jump-start-talks?srnd=homepage-americas
Headline: US Insists Talks Ongoing Even as Iran Rejects Trump Outreach
“Trump on Monday set a five-day deadline for Iran to negotiate a deal to end the war. Halfway through that period, there are lingering questions over the status of negotiations and the likelihood for a deal.”
and
“Brent oil fell to trade around $101 a barrel as traders tentatively priced in the prospect of a US diplomatic push to end the war with Iran. Though conviction in de-escalation remains low, investors saw the pullback as a rare off-ramp after crowding into long positions since the start of the month.“
Transcript of the Marandi/Diesen video that was talked about here.
https://resistancenews.org/2026/03/25/mohammed-marandi-the-war-against-iran-could-destroy-the-global-economy/
Trump may announce Iran ceasefire by weekend, Israeli officials say
Officials believe US president could declare monthlong truce within days, prompting IDF to accelerate operations as Israel seeks to press ahead with its campaign until April 9; seizure of Iran’s strategic Kharg Island on the table if diplomacy fails
setting up stock market wins again?
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skz97511jbl
For some definition of “ceasefire”. Absolutely surreal.
Is it a ceasefire if only the US stops? I don’t see Iran or Israel stopping.
But if the U.S. does stop, does it impact who Iran bombs?
If we stop and Iran continues to bomb Israel, do we start again?
If we and Israel stop and Iran bombs Israel, do we both start again?
I mean, this wouldn’t be a negotiated cease fire, it’d be a unilaterally declared one, right?
Quranic-Mathematics is my new absolute most favorite thing. I didn’t know it even existed before today.
White House press briefing from Karoline Leavitt (note: set to play at the relevant part).
Leavitt says (about 3-hours ago) that:
During questioning, she also said that talks were ongoing but she wouldn’t provide details of the “sensitive diplomatic discussions” – very much in contrast to Iran’s making their position very public!
The import of these remarks, coming after the non-started peace proposal, appears to be a pretext for escalation.
An escalation that might include troop deployments and US casualties.
Oh, I would give great odds against anyone who doesn’t believe that Trump is about to insert ground forces in some dumb-as-shit ground operation that will backfire and result in everyone getting killed, probably quickly, but at least slowly. Further, it will lead to strategic counter-action which will make the US/Israel position even weaker than it already is. Have no doubt. I’ve got full faith in the man. Jimmy Carter will look like a stratego in comparison when this joker is through.
the US has achieved almost all its objectives with thousands of strikes across Iran;
A true miracle, Nike is almost pregnant, just from Trump hammering away at his own orifice.
When not greenlighting blitzkrieg Don is his own Lord Haw-Haw
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Haw-Haw
William Joyce was eventually hung but on the grounds of treason to His Majesty more than his propaganda job. Trump is probably safe on that one unless the Iranians make it as far as Mar a Lago.
Judgment on the blitzkrieg will be up to the voters.
Iran missile hits Lebanon after Tehran envoy expelled from Beirut
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603254211
Trump to hit Iran harder if Tehran does not accept defeat, White House says
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-hit-iran-harder-if-tehran-does-not-accept-defeat-white-house-says-2026-03-25/
UAE ambassador to US warns against ending Iran war too soon
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, UAE ambassador to the US, Yousef Al Otaiba, wrote that the current war requires a decisive outcome that addresses the full scope of the Islamic Republic’s threat.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-891215
Tankers reportedly carry around 1-2m barrels of oil – a bit less for smaller ones, more for larger. Given movements in the oil price, the inventory of any ships in transit has probably appreciated by eight figures since the start of the crisis. Paying $2 million to free it into the market right now would seem like a complete no-brainer. Even if they are delivering on a fixed-price contract agreed before the war began, unlocking the tanker asset for more deliveries could offer similar value.
I read a piece sometime back, perhaps in NC, which ran with the idea that “you do not want to f*ck with mountain people!” The idea being that people whose societies have long inhabited mountainous terrain tend to form groups which are constantly fighting each other, and after a while get very good at it, and even enjoy it.
In the US, it’s the Hatfields and the McCoys in the Appalachian mountains who have historically distrusted and hated the people in the next hollow, but the author of the piece I’m remembering had a mind-bending number of examples, including the Afghans, the Iranians, the Gurkhas, the Incas, the Ethiopians, the Kurds, the Chechens, etc.
The writer noted that, once these mountain people expel would-be outside invaders, they cheerfully go back to fighting with each other until the next fools come along.
Evidently this is what we are seeing in action with the US trying to mess with Iran.
I talked to a woman who had been a social worker in the North Carolina mountains. I asked about the winters there and she said that was when the Cherokees settled scores.
I came across a good review of AI’s (Maven specifically) role in the war planning disaster in, of all places, the public House Of Saud public PR site. It’s rather in-depth and places the blame squarely on the users of the system rather than “ZOMG How Could AI Do This To US!!”
It has two clear tables that show how far off the predictions of timelines and events are from reality (e.g. SOH will be closed for 44x-730x longer than AI predicted) and the assumptions the NSC and others used to get the AI output.
From the wrap up:
https://houseofsaud.com/iran-war-ai-psychosis-sycophancy-rlhf/
Excellent piece. Thanks.
Wow. It makes more sense now.
Miscellanea: The War in Iran from military historian Bret Devereaux
https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/
“This post is a set of my observations on the current war in Iran and my thoughts on the broader strategic implications. I am not, of course, an expert on the region nor do I have access to any special information, so I am going to treat that all with a high degree of uncertainty. But I am a scholar of military history with a fair bit of training and experience in thinking about strategic problems, ancient and modern; it is this ‘guy that analyzes strategy’ focus that I want to bring to this.”
Long view, even handed, mostly informed by readily available source material. Good lens.
This is well done. I’m not sure there’s new information for our commentariat, but this phrasing
> Trump scrapped them in 2017 in exchange for exactly nothing
sticks to the wall. There was a 2×2 analysis I can’t find, but went something like this:
: win/win = productive
: thief: I win, you lose
: sucker: you win, I lose
: dolt = lose/lose
Devereaux > it is not at all clear to me that the current administration understood how deeply their interests and Israel’s diverged here.
Between Trump not caring, and Bibi’s back getting pushed into the wall, my odds of no nuke popping are approaching 2:1. I do not like those odds at all, tho my history suggests oversensitivity (a propensity for false positives) in these matters.
U.S. brought back $100 million of gold from Venezuela, Interior Secretary Burgum says
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/venezuela-gold-burgum-trump-rodriguez-maduro.html
brought back = looted
Interesting tweet. Excerpt
https://x.com/johnkonrad/status/2036777848266961293?s=46
I’ve heard it speculated that U.S. ground forces will not be deployed against Iran but possibly against the civilian populations of the gulf states should they become kinetically ill disposed toward their ruling elites.
White House’s Leavitt testily denies existence of 15-point Iran ceasefire plan that Trump touted just days ago
Trump claimed his administration had a 15-point ceasefire plan during remarks to reporters in Florida on Monday
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-ceasefire-plan-denial-b2945693.html
DOJ Accidentally Gave Congress ‘Damning Evidence’ Against Trump, Jamie Raskin Says
“These new disclosures suggest that Donald Trump stole documents so sensitive that only six people in the entire U.S. government had access to them, that the documents President Trump stole pertained to his business interests, and that Susie Wiles, then the CEO of Donald Trump’s super PAC, witnessed President Trump showing off a classified map to passengers on his private plane,” Raskin said in the letter [to Pam Bondi]”
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-classified-documents-business_n_69c33a16e4b081f8eb138606
Trump mishandled classified documents? But really secret ones this time? Hmmm… well, now we know what the Dems will try to impeach for after the midterms.
In a Biblical Contest that the likes of Hegseth has formulated; I would imagine Iran would ask for nothing less than the heads of the decietful negotiators, their wives and children and of Trump’s children and their wives and children, delivered all in glass jars, as a statement of intent to negotiate in good faith. Otherwise, the thing of least value on the planet would be a promise by Trump.
The Marine battle cry is now: Oorah Epstein. Oorah Bibi. What is average IQ of the US voter when they would prefer spending (via the gas pump) $2 billion a day fighting against Iran for Israel instead of demanding an improvement to air safety and transportation infrastructue in this country. In double digits? How low?
US Military Reportedly Feeds Trump a Daily Propaganda Reel of ‘Stuff Blowing Up’ in Iran
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-iran-war-montage
Pentagon reaches deals with defense firms to expand munitions production
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pentagon-says-it-will-ramp-up-war-supplies-with-defense-companies-2026-03-25/
At Pentagon Christian service, Hegseth prays for violence ‘against those who deserve no mercy’
https://apnews.com/article/pete-hegseth-pentagon-christian-worship-service-30db48b6ceb8af5e6172fb3ba2eafaa0
U.S. Postal Service seeks 8% fuel surcharge for package deliveries as Iran war raises oil prices
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/us-postal-fuel-surcharge-package-deliveries-iran-oil.html
EPA approves sale of higher ethanol fuel to try to lower gas prices
The Environmental Protection Agency has announced it would allow gas stations to continue selling slightly cheaper E15 this summer in a move that may be good for drivers and corn growers but will likely contribute to air pollution
https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/epa-approves-sale-higher-ethanol-fuel-lower-gas-131409757
And corn requires fertilizer, no doubt; What a joke. Certainly not going to press people to conserve fuel instead.
American Jews Won’t Be Silenced. We Have Every Right to Oppose the Iran War
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-03-25/ty-article-opinion/.premium/american-jews-wont-be-silenced-we-have-every-right-to-oppose-the-iran-war/0000019d-2199-d7c1-a59f-efdb2cae0000
The Iran War Has Already Hurt Oil Production More Than the ’70s Energy Crisis Did
https://reason.com/2026/03/25/the-iran-war-has-already-hurt-oil-production-more-than-the-70s-energy-crisis-did/
USA/Iran: Trump’s Warning That USA Will Attack Iran’s Power Plants Is a Threat to Commit War Crimes
https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/usa-iran-trumps-warning-that-usa-will-attack-irans-power-plants-is-a-threat-to-commit-war-crimes/
Trump’s trillion-dollar TACO that wasn’t: Iran confronts the master of the deal with a partner he can’t bully
It also takes two to TACO, as other analysts have written. The tariff TACOs worked because Trump’s counterparties, China, the EU or Canada, were rational economic actors who needed stability and were fine to take a face-saving deal to get it.
Iran is not so predictable. Its supreme leader is dead, its military infrastructure is decimated and four weeks in it’s still not behaving like a counterparty looking for an off-ramp. If anything, it’s behaving like one that thinks it’s winning.
https://fortune.com/2026/03/24/trump-iran-war-taco-markets-oil-strait-of-hormuz-brent-crude/
Trump Tirades on Iran Take Ugly, Sadistic Turn as Crushing Polls Hit
As Trump’s rants about Iran grow more vicious, a data analyst explains why the polling on his handling of this conflict is so unusually awful—and is giving him no rally-around-the-flag effect of any kind.
https://newrepublic.com/article/208152/trump-tirades-iran-take-ugly-sadistic-turn-crushing-polls-hit
Trump Cannot See That the Opposition Is Real
Neither Trump nor his aides, according to recent reporting, planned for Iran to target shipping and close the Strait of Hormuz. They also do not seem to have planned for serious and sustained retaliation against America’s gulf state allies. They did not plan for an energy crisis and the potential disruption to the global economy, and they did not plan for America’s European allies to, by and large, reject their call for support.
To read about the administration’s decision-making process is to learn that it did not really plan for or expect much in the way of anything that now defines the war. This raises two obvious questions: What did they plan for? And what exactly did they expect to happen?
It appears that both the president and the White House expected token resistance, followed by the collapse of the Iranian regime, the installation of a pro-American government — or at least one we could tolerate — and a return to the status quo ante: a replay, in essence, of the president’s first intervention of the year, in Venezuela.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/opinion/trump-iran-opposition-solipsism.html?unlocked_article_code=1.V1A.to-f.gXoZDf6nzhRi
Experts? Trump don’t need no stinking experts. He goes with his “gut”.
It’s satisfying seeing Trump and company breaking their teeth on the Iranian pistachio nut. Now his “gut” is full of his broken teeth and other people’s blood.
Iran building up defenses of Kharg Island to protect against potential US ground attack, sources say
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/25/politics/iran-kharg-island-us-military-ground-troops
Iran threatens key Red Sea strait if US launches ground operation
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5800545-iran-threatens-red-sea-strait/
Israeli former PM calls on ICC to halt West Bank ‘Jewish terrorists’ after prosecutions stop
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/25/no-israel-prosecutions-for-killing-palestinian-civilians-in-occupied-west-bank-since-start-of-decade
“A massive missile strike near Israel’s Dimona facility has rocked the Negev Desert, raising alarm across the region. Dimona, home to the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, is widely believed to be at the core of Israel’s nuclear program, making this attack particularly significant.”
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/iran-pounds-negev-in-southern-israel-explosion-near-nuclear-town-of-dimona-caught-on-cam/videoshow/129805841.cms
Iran also hits Israel’s largest power plant at Hadera.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/on-cam-iran-hits-israel-s-largest-power-plant-explosions-smoke-rock-hadera-watch/vi-AA1ZnoJe
This came after Iran dismissed US conditions and then attacked Iranian energy facilities, including strikes near Bushehr. “Kuwait issues radiation warning for citizens as fears mount over Iran’s Bushehr plant”
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/kuwait-issues-radiation-warning-for-citizens-as-fears-mount-over-irans-bushehr-plant-3216867?s=2
Ground invasion timetable?
Larry Johnson said on Sonar21 today that he thinks Trump’s “5-Day ceasefire” was just a ploy to calm the oil/stock markets while the US ground invasion force steams toward the Gulf. He thinks the attack will begin sometime this weekend, and the most likely targets are Kharg island (for the oil) and also one of the islands right on the Strait.
Can anyone add to this? The timing is vital. If Larry is right, we need to position ourselves before end of trading on Friday.
Not on substance, but on process.
The last time that I recall LJ predicting an invasion in an upcoming weekend was the last week in February, with Judge Napolitano. Events vindicated his view.
Iran ‘present’ touted by Trump was passage of several fuel tankers through Hormuz (Times of Israel)
I joked about this above, but wow lol.
Trump’s advisors telling him this is about him, when really I think it’s just the Iranians getting on with their toll-booth program.
I do not believe the TOI version below:
The US official told The Times of Israel on Wednesday that when the Trump administration began passing along messages to Iran through mediators over the weekend in order to test whether a diplomatic off-ramp to the war was possible, it asked Tehran to make a gesture of goodwill.
In response, Iran agreed to allow a number of fuel tankers that weren’t tied to the US or Israel through the Strait of Hormuz in order to help calm global markets, the Arab official said.
Edit: there’s a very tiny part of me that wonders if I’m wrong, and that negotiations are happening. Very very tiny.
Oh, I don’t doubt Iran let the tankers pass through–there have been enough reports about them. I also think their passage has nothing to do with Trump or US (ie they or their governments made their own deals with Iran). To twist around a Korean proverb, Trump is trying to claim credit for a falling pear (the original proverb has the crow getting blame for the falling pear, with which it had nothing.)
Alternatively, the US demanded proof that whoever they are negotiating with has the power to back up their commitments with action, whoever it is decided to take something that was planned already and claim it was being done just for Trump’s benefit, and Trump fell for it (because convincing Trump that everything is about him is the easiest sell in the world).
Michael Wolff has argued that DJT’s advisers try to keep him happy. Spinning the news flow to imply that he is getting his way might be one way to do this.
Marandi with Nima yesterday
I am only through 1st half.
Marandi as pointed out above, very very very straight forward.
No negotiatons until Iran feels sure that there will be no more attacks on its territory in the future ever again.
Seyed M. Marandi: Israel Hits Iran Energy Sites, Iran’s Next Move: Israel’s Energy & Water Systems
57 min.
https://rumble.com/v77l0fc-seyed-m.-marandi-israel-hits-iran-energy-sites-irans-next-move-israels-ener.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v
The problem is not unlike Ukraine. Ceasefire would mean breathing time.
Everything follows from that.
For this Iranian strategy to work, things need to become really bad just like Jacques Baud said 2 weeks ago.
As Baud then articulated, it must more than hurt US/ISR.
Marandi praised the successor of Larijani. An economist from Tehran Univ. who then went into military branch and fought in the Iran-Iraq war and is regarded and respected as war hero.
Marandi mentions he himself was subject to poison gas attack twice.
And again says now much earlier in the show without Nima addressing – that X is not willing to remove the TWEET with offering $1M on Marandi´s head if he were abducted. An X account that is verified as real.
So obviously TWITTER staff are part of the war against Iran.
He also reminds that although he knows many Western journalists who also follow him on TWITTER none have reached out once. No questions. Nothing.
He speaks about protests of millions. Which are attacked by missiles. He says people did not run.
While the young were deceived by Western PR they now too seem to recognize the true nature of that West.
He again reminded that Iranian leaders are way more educated than Western leaders, with Iranians being academic scholars. Khamenei Sr. was fluent in 4 languages, specialist on Western philosophy, his son is fluent in 3 and also philosophy and literature (like Marandi himself who is Prof. of English literature I think.)
Marandi starts the show with apology to Nima for calling him “Nima” although Nima is in fact a university professor as well.
So, professors everywhere 😉
He is an effective spokesman.
Whereas who would bother to put out a bounty on Karoline?
The latest from Trump is that his secret negotiator has to stay hidden so he won’t be killed. Which certainly suggests this person must have the power to surrender the country.
But maybe DJT can keep his latest fib going long enough to score some more insider trading. The whole thing is absurd or it would be if it wasn’t so morally monstrous. Many of the Nazis were comic figures (St. Clair suggests that Goering was a secret cross dresser) but they did conquer a large chunk of Europe and held it for awhile.
Three Stooges Hitler can’t even put out a good story. No wonder I don’t watch reality shows.
Interesting if true:
American F/A 18 used Vulcan 20mm gun on ground targets, flying very low confident in complete absence of air defense. MANPAD warhead was small to punish arrogance
https://t.me/zoka200/49082#
KingKong9888 aka Eric Yeung – a true commodities insider in China. And he actually puts his money where his mouth is (as opposed to many who just talk).
https://kingkong9888.substack.com/p/the-chinese-rmb-yuan-for-oil-loop
Iran’s Attacks Force U.S. Troops to Work Remotely (NYT, archived)
Roundup (although not complete) of the US bases rendered unusable. No new revelations as far as I can see.
Still underselling it, but beginning to admit that they are losing :)
Reality bites in the Telegraph
Asia’s poorest reeling as energy crisis bites
British factories brace for an energy crisis worse than the 1970s