[This Iran war post launched before complete because reasons. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browsers then for a final version]
The downtick in much new news about the Iran war with the unduly optimistic hope that the talks set to start in Islamabad have already been delayed due to a disagreements over process.
The negotiations had been described a few days ago as direct. But the pushback of the onset of the talks looks to be due to settling how to handle them on an indirect basis.
It’s not is not hard to see why. The US negotiating team does mot simply show a lack of seriousness but appears intended to insult Iran. JD Vance and the professional-jerkface-masquerading-as-White-House-spokesmonster Karoline Leavitt are heading the negotiations. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are part of the US contingent.1
The Iranians are known to loathe Witkoff and Kushner, likely due both to their severe cases of Dunning-Krueger syndrome as well as having deliberately deceived them in the runup to this war, when they pretended to be negotiating even as the US and Israel were readying their joint attack. On top of that, both are diehard Zionists, when as Joe Kent has warned repeatedly, the only hope for the US to end this conflict is to abandon Israel. The presence of this duo thus says loudly the US has no intent whatsoever of doing that, so this exercise is a charade, presumably for Trump to keep Mr. Market appeased while his team scrambles to find yet another sure-to-fail kinetic option.
Hindustan Times reports that Iran is seeking to exercise even more control over the process by saying they intend to devote only a day to this get-together:
Notice also that Iran seems to be sticking to its guns on no meeting at all if its preconditions are not met. Those were that the attacks on Lebanon stop and its frozen assets are returned. They have been reaffirmed:
Two major Iranian demands already accepted by the US as pre-conditions for negotiations in Pakistan.
Pakistan informed that Iranian assets will be unfrozen and a ceasefire in Lebanon will be maintained, according to a Pakistani official cited in local media.
Diplomacy in…
— Ali K.Chishti Official (@thewirepak) April 11, 2026
Daniel Davis gives a good overview of why the negotiations look like a ruse, which seems consist with Iran’s tacit view:
I have some minor quibbles with his generally sound take. Davis posits that the US will use the two-week fake ceasefire to regroup and launch more intense action after that. Trump’s propensity has been either to push things back further (actual or quasi TACOs) or jump his own drop-dead date, presumably to have the advantage of surprise.
Another factor arguing for action sooner rather than later is the ever-compounding economic damage from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We’ve pointed out repeatedly that the economic crisis has set in across Asia in varying degrees of intensity is now starting in Europe and the US after oil buffers via tanker cargoes in transit were exhausted. As the Financial Times and other outlets have pointed out, physical as opposed to paper Brent crude prices have spiked higher. US prices as the pump are destined to rise at faster rates. It’s going to be hard for Team Trump to keep pretending that the US is not much exposes as jet fuel shortages translate into big increases in air fares and schedule cuts. Not only will internal tourist travel suffer, but even more so arrivals from overseas, That will hit hotels and holiday spots.
And soon to come will be medication shortages, since many rely on petrochemical inputs. India’s inventories of active pharmaceutical ingredients are set to last only through May. What happens when Americans can’t get cancer and heart meds, or even antibiotics?
One reason I favor Davis’ view is that Trump actively sets out to be misinformed. The now-famed New York Times inside view, How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran, shows that no key official save Vance dared disagree with him.
A fresh Hindustan Times video includes segments of Trump reciting his usual nonsense about how Iran has been defeated, and he makes it sound as unfair and ridiculous that such a weak country is still messing up the Strait of Hormuz, but somehow this will sort itself out. His patter is logic salad as opposed to the more common word salad.
What is alarming is not just what Trump say but what his misinformants tell him. A Janta Ka clip, like the Hindustan Times one above, features the execrable Jack Keane. The segment below posted before the Iranians at least short-term bricked the talks by insisting on indirect negotiations:
Two parts are noteworthy. At about 5:20, a BBC expert carries on about how Iranian negotiators like to overplay their hand. He bizarrely says Iranians tend to run out the clock, yet has to concede that the JCOPA negotiations took a lot of time due to the technical complexity. At around 12:05, Keane voices the ridiculous idea that the US can quarantine Iranian ships in the Gulf of Oman….with a map of Iran in full view, demonstrating that Iran could easily sink any military vessels that dared to go there.
To return to the negotiations: the head of Iran’s central bank is part of the Iranian delegation. Regarding the over $100 billion in Iranian frozen assets, I suspect the immediate issue is $7 billion that Qatar seized and has asked to have released. The US supposedly agreed but that clearly has not happened….and I doubt it will happen. This looks like yet another empty US promise.
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING:
Washington has greenlit the release of $6 BILLION in frozen Iranian assets, a major shift in the pressure campaign against Tehran.
Is this a step toward de-escalation… or a high-stakes concession to bring Iran to the table? pic.twitter.com/1wGCkGJ3XM
— WAR MONITORING (@War_Monitoring) April 10, 2026
🚨🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇰🇷 🇶🇦 BREAKING:
Bank executives are scrambling behind the scenes to RELEASE $7 #BILLION of frozen Iranian funds held by South Korea in Qatari banksThe frozen assets are a result of U.S. financial sanctions, and Iran wants them released immediately pic.twitter.com/0uEHzEvEsG
— A K Mandhan (@A_K_Mandhan) April 10, 2026
I suspect this is a, if not the, reason for the Iranian one-day limit. No tickie, no laundry.
And after this post first went live, the US has said it never agreed to unfreeze the assets:
NEWS: The U.S. has NOT agreed to release any Iranian frozen assets, a senior U.S. official told CBS News.
A Reuters report that cited a senior Iranian source was not accurate.
Meetings with Iran have not started yet, so no agreements have been discussed at all.Vice President…
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) April 11, 2026
So the only question now if the Iranians decamp immediately, or faff around a bit (presumably to show some respect to their hosts who did go to a lot of bother).
I have not seen anyone unpack well what had been happening on this front, so here is my guess. Recall that Oman and Qatar have been trying to stay out of this conflict (this is why Qatar was particularly upset when Iran hit its LNG facilities after the US/Israel strike on its South Pars gas field….the very some one, that extends under the Gulf, and Qatar has also developed).
There was then a story that Qatar had cut a transit deal with Iran, but as Chas Freeman confirmed in a new talk with Nima on Dialogue Works, two Qatari tanker went to the Strait and then turned back.
My guess is that Qatar sought to get the Iranian assets that it controlled returned to Iran in lieu of having vessels coming from its ports pay transit fees. That would have strategic value to Qatar in reducing the cost and difficulty of shipments from the country. It would have even more strategic value to Iran via:
1. Setting a precedent for the release of its frozen assets
2. Deepening divisions in the GCC states by further distancing Qatar from those still anchored to the US
3. Giving Iran a nice chuck of change immediately, as opposed to the slower approach of securing reparations by running its toll booth
4. Arguably being a palatable workaround more for reparations (as in does not result in ongoing charges to commerce and slowing of transits, gets Iran out of the toll booth business faster, since Iran has maintained it has resorted to that procedure both to make sure transiting vessels do nat carry weapons and to obtain compensation for war damages.
Now admittedly, the recent tweets from Iranian officials reaffirmed that the “unfreeze” was global. But I suspect they would have settled now for the Qatar $7 billion to set the precedent and try to get other Gulf states to make similar requests. That could have the further advantage of making the US look like it was not the driver of this process.
But again, Trump has to be the sole decider, so even this gambit as a face-saver was vanishingly unlikely to work. And all sorts of Zionist and neocon heads would explode at the prospect of frozen assets being released. After all, if Iran, why not Russia?
And a bizarre New York Times story looks intended to set up yet more Administration excuses as to why it can’t force the Strait of Hormuz open. Recall that most experts doubt that Iran mined the passage; it’s a cheap threat to force carries to use either Iranian or Omani territorial waters. Notice that even the headline makes clear that the story is based entirely on US claims. From Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says:
Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
The development is one reason Iran has not been able to quickly comply with the Trump administration’s admonitions to let more traffic pass through the strait. It is also potentially a complicating factor as Iranian negotiators and a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance meet in Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
Iran used small boats to mine the strait last month, soon after the United States and Israel began their war against the country. The mines, plus the threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks, slowed the number of oil tankers and other vessels passing through the strait to a trickle, driving up energy prices and providing Iran with its best leverage in the war.
Iran left a path through the strait open, allowing ships that pay a toll to pass through.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has issued warnings that ships could collide with sea mines, and semiofficial news organizations have published charts showing safe routes.
Those routes are limited in large part because Iran mined the strait haphazardly, U.S. officials said. It is not clear that Iran recorded where it put every mine. And even when the location was recorded, some mines were placed in a way that allowed them to drift or move, according to the officials.
In light of the above, this could be a pretext for killing the negotiations, that Iran cannot “prove” that the Strait of Hormuz is safe unless it lets US-allied minesweepers (recall America’s are lousy so it would need to lean on allies like Japan) which Iran will not do until the war is over.
Daniel Davis also had a good talk with Alastair Crooke:
A lot of this will be familiar to those who have heard Crooke before. Crooke gave a very good explanation of the political dynamics in Lebanon, that the population is 40% to 50% Shia but the prime minister is Sunni and very opposed to the Shia. Crooke depicted Israel as seeking to foment civil war in Lebanon.
Another part that stood out was Crooke stressing the deep obligation that Iranians feel to support oppressed populations. He depicted that as part of Iran’s revolution and that that tendency had become stronger (one assumes if nothing else as a result of the genocide in Gaza).
This value system matters for the negotiations, charitably assuming they get much of anywhere.
Iran is demanding an end to the attacks on Lebanon, per Crook, largely to stop Israel abuse, as in Iran has a significant moral imperative driving its demand. The US and Israel are instead likely to frame this in regional power terms, that Iran wants to threaten and weaken Israel by supporting Shia who are seen as more or less tantamount to Hezbollah. Since Israel deems all others to be Amalek, they can by definition have no rights.
Done for today. See you tomorrow!
_____
1 The India Today clip above, from about 3 hours ago, further said that JD Vance and Kushner had not even arrived. An Aljazeera update of an hour ago said Vance had just landed.
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The best argument for a ceasefire I’ve heard for a successful end to this came from “RippleBrain” which I have became aware of due to the comment threads here on NC. His argument is as follows, but concludes it’s probably impossible as Israel will not go along:
At this point, a unilateral US de-escalation is still theoretically possible. They’d need to cobble together a face-saving series of fabricated narratives to do it.
– “Iran has agreed not to produce a nuclear weapon.” The Iranians are unlikely to make any public statements contradicting this.
– Lift sanctions on Iran and claim we’re going to make money in exchange. Say Iran has promised to give us a cut of Hormuz tolls. Create some kind complex financial arrangement out of the billions in frozen Iranian funds held by the US and other countries. Say we’ll make a trillion dollars over ten years. Americans won’t look into this in any detail.
– Spin the abandonment of US bases across the Persian Gulf as a win, pretend like you did it on purpose because the Gulf states need to “pay for their own defense,” similar to the messaging around NATO and Europe. Again, Americans won’t look into this.
With these narratives as cover, they could withdraw from the region. The issue with this is that the Israelis won’t cooperate. Resolving this would require Trump going above and beyond Reagan’s direct confrontations with the Israelis in the early eighties. Threaten to abandon them permanently, cut them off from all military aid, and sanction them into oblivion if they don’t play ball. Given Trump’s relationship with the Israelis, this seems impossible.
A deal is fully possible here provided the Israelis and the GCC can be restrained (dubious). Fully lifting sanctions on Iran will do a lot to mitigate any potential damage to the dollar. In the typical Trump style, sell it as a deal in which the US will make a lot of money.
They’ll likely replace the “toll” with an impenetrable and highly complex multilateral financial agreement that will be easier for everyone to sell but essentially amounts to a toll.
Would love everyone’s thoughts. Clearly the US did not send a delegation capable of actually accomplishing meaningful work, like Iran did.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042738448713261546
Inevitably, the adults will have to show up and give Trump “the talk”. Powerful interests will lay it out to him: unfck the economy, or get Kennedy-ied. The Jewish billionaires are only one segment of the ruling class. Once the others decide that Israel is just not mathing, that’s it. Wealth managers assess investments with cold, ruthless detachment: if an asset falls outside certain performance metrics, it gets dumped.
“Inevitably, the adults will have to show up and give Trump “the talk.”
In early August of 1974 Republican Senators Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania and Barry Goldwater of Arizona, and Representative John Rhodes of Arizona visited Richard Nixon and told him to resign or get impeached and convicted for his “high crimes and misdemeanors” of Watergate. The next day Nixon resigned.
It was a different time, one that has receded so far into the past that it cannot be recalled, as in remembered and performed.
“Blow the treetops off Vietnam” Barry Goldwater? How serious was he?
Vidal said the real turning point for the USA was WW2 victory where we became the national power victors above all others. And so haberdasher Harry was followed by great golfer Eisenhower followed by favored son playboy JFK followed by picks his dogs up by the ears Lyndon followed by, yes, Nixon with his five o’clock shadow and social awkwardness. Nixon’s defense was that he fit right in with this crew and maybe he was right.
But the Trumpies have taken us down to a whole new low. Make it stop.
Peter Turchin, complexity scientist, wrote a book called End Times. He uses massive datasets to study how states collapse. The prognosis for America is poor.
End Times by Peter Turchin review – can we predict the collapse of societies?
Personally, I only see the US heading in one inexorable direction. Down. Those wise enough who can afford it are bailing out.
“ A bitter wind blows through the country
A hard rain falls on the sea
If terror comes without a warning
There must be something we don’t see
What fire begets this fire?
Like torches thrown into the straw
If no one asks, then no one answers
That’s how every empire falls.”
Lyrics by R.B. Morris
Great reply. I think you are right.
Jefferson said fresh revolutions would always be needed. But how?
Good point, but he’s got lots of company. I think Michael Hudson has said much the same thing. Another example would be G.E.M de St. Croix’s analysis of the decline of the Roman Empire, in which an impressively aggressive landowner elite clobbered and sucked the life out of the peasant and artisanal classes, all the while as elites developed increasingly complex patron-client/toady systems to share in the spoils.
Or perhaps the turning point occurred at 10 PM on July 20, 1944, when the Democratic Party establishment (the Jim Crow southerners and the big-city machine bosses) leaned on the temporary chairman of the Party’s National Convention to adjourn the session just as it was on the cusp of renominating Henry Wallace for Vice President by acclamation. Instead the next morning the convention nominated a “compromise candidate” who was machine politician from a former slave state with vanishingly small foreign affairs experience, who proved to be putty in the hands of the likes of the Averell Harriman and the Dulles brothers. Wallace had been fully on board with Rooseveltian Internationalism, a central tenet of which was to genuinely deposit colonialism onto the ash heap of history. Instead the institutions created at Bretton-Woods (the World Bank and the IMF), which were intended to suppress its re-emergence, were instead repurposed by Truman et al to resurrect imperialism in a stealthy economic form.
Yeah, I’ve thought about this also. How would things play out if Wallace was renominated as vice president? I’m not totally certain that he would not have been “restrained” and that history would have played out much differently. I think the turning point was when FDR declined to prosecute the industrialists behind the Business Plot. Only the foot soldiers and underlings were prosecuted.
Or perhaps the turning point occurred at 10 PM on July 20, 1944, when the Democratic Party establishment (the Jim Crow southerners and the big-city machine bosses) leaned on the temporary chairman of the Party’s National Convention to adjourn the session just as it was on the cusp of renominating Henry Wallace for Vice President by acclamation.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Same day as Operation Valkyrie, hmmmmm.
Yewah thingy – https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-JJgLO5AgCQ
If you’re going to bring it up, it’s Probably worth mentioning that a lot of people think the Zionists had a hand in the Kennedy assassination, all having to do with him not wanting them to have an atomic weapon… which they do now. LBJ really didn’t do much to stop them either. Who can know? Maybe Charlie Kirk knows something about it now, but I’m willing to bet it’s just as much threats of violence as it is kompromat with DJT.
Agreed.
You can usually tell who the most hated are at a given time by who is headlining the JFK assassination theories of the era. Post the finance driven meltdown of ’08, bankers figured prominently, though before that they scarcely got a mention.
The special relationship is the problem here, the zionist apparatus has the president as its trump card.
The apparatus does not care if the whole world starves
IF there is any opposition to this arrangement, the president might well be advised about the ‘no man, no problem’ solution.
An additional potential face-saver:
U.S. negotiators to ask Iran to release detained Americans – Washington Post (archived)
‘Iran’s release of U.S. citizens would be a “simple and no-loss way to have an off-ramp from the current hostilities” for Iran [and for Trump to proclaim a nighty victory]
, said Kieran Ramsey of Global Reach, a nonprofit focused on securing the release of American hostages and wrongful detainees.’
I wonder how many of the “detained Americans” are CIA types either caught instigating the riots that were supposed to bring on regime change or grabbed in attempted military incursions. Not that there couldn’t be other Americans stuck in Iran thanks to Trump’s treacherous attack, but I can’t imagine that the White House crowd cares at all about the fate of plain old ordinary American civilians.
Any financial agreement that they can cook up, from the simplistic we split the money espoused by Trump to hideously complex financial games, have two basic requirements.
1) Reintegrating Iran in SWIFT since Iran will not accept any country but them and Oman, possibly not even them, to hold the initial deposit. Iran isn’t going to trust anyone with their assets after the last few years. And USA would be beyond stupid to encourage use of alternative systems (even as explained on NC that it won’t affect the reserve currency status of the dollar) so as to be able to state they control what Iran gets and keep the dollar, slightly, more relevant in the Middle East.
2) At least a partial lifting of sanctions since any payment that Iran would get a share of would violate one or more sanctions USA put on Iran.
It would be interesting to know which countries have frozen Iranian assets in their portfolios. Was reading how the South Koreans had a coupla billion of their dollars in Qatar so who else has Iran’s money? The US will never, ever giveback frozen Iranian funds but if all the other counties could do so, it would be a form of sanctions busting. The US would whine but many of those countries need Iranian oil to keep their economies going.
The Shah had placed and paid for a big order of tanks from the British in the mid 70s but was overthrown before they could be delivered. The Brits cancelled delivery but refused to return the payment. The issue was only resolved a couple of years ago, partly IIRC in relation to the release of a British-Iranian woman who had been jailed in Iran for spying – naturally wrongfully acc Britain even though Boris Johnson blurted out she had been spying undercover.
Does Iran want to re-integrate into SWIFT? Would just set them up to be sanctioned again if they participate in a U.S. dominated system. In general, I have trouble seeing Iran doing all this to get out from under U.S. military domination just to submit to U.S. financial domination.
Does Iran need to re-integrate into SWIFT? Are they going to contract with American or European firms to help rebuild? Would think China and Russian firms have the inside track. In which case, they already have non-dollar payment mechanisms in place. And with Hormuz Tolls payable in Yuan, they have the currency to make use of those mechanisms.
Not saying the Iranians are pushing to topple the dollar. But their needs, distrust of the West and existing alternatives don’t seem to be pushing them to re-integrate into the U.S. dollar based global system. Instead, however this plays out, I think we see the continued fracturing of the global economy into different blocs.
Through the machinations of the USA, the Iranian Rial went from 5 to the $, to 1,500,000 to the $.
Now why the Persians would want to be joined at the hip to us, is a difficult query to answer.
There is a TL;DR at the bottom.
Oh Iran doesn’t want to be under the financial thumb of USA but they at least need to do some concessions. The SWIFT concession isn’t big for the reasons you gave, but it is a visible concession that gives Trump an out by claiming he controls what Iran gets in revenue.
The real prize is removal of sanctions which would prevent people from trading with Iran using SWIFT since those same sanctions also prevent/stop trade using the alternatives.
If it gets to that point in negotiations which I doubt for the current round. Then Iran could do things like putting up a risk premium for any transaction using SWIFT (no one is going to pay a 25% premium unless forced if using CIPS removes it) or any number of other tricks that violate the spirit but not the letter of the concession. It helps that the USA negotiating team consists of Whackam, Grabbit, and Runne and thus are not exactly stellar in thinking of or discovering loopholes like this.
So in short the SWIFT reconnection is giving Trump a win that he can parade around as ‘SEE what I DID to the Eyranians.’, while having little to no impact on Iran itself and can possibly be used to leverage more concessions.
The US would NEVER NEVER NEVER honor any arrangement regarding the frozen assets.
Search engines do not cooperate with this line of inquiry, but the US regularly cheats on commitments, see not paying the UN
There are allegations the US stiffed Maduro informants after loudly promising a big bounty: https://www.facebook.com/abrarinsights/posts/a-venezuelan-security-officer-who-allegedly-helped-the-us-capture-president-nico/1532216212242609/
Larry Johnson has also more than once said that Trump stuffed the Venezuelan turncoats
It is his nature. He always stiffs the people working for him.
Isn’t it Larry that often says the only thing more dangerous than being Americas enemy is being Americas “friend” ? It’s one of those former insiders…
Henry Kissinger was the first to formulate it in this way, I think.
You may well be right that the US would never honour any such arrangement. But equally Iran would almost certainly insist on seeing the money first, in the form of gold, Bitcoin, yuan, or something else they can be sure of. And this could form an impasse.
For sure! How many times have we heard Trump lambaste/ridicule Obama for “Giving” the Iranians $4 billion and delivering plane loads of cash to them? He always brings it up. He’d be skinned alive if he did the same.
Your solution fits Trumps needs and predilections, i.e. a “win” plus a press release type of agreement as opposed to a treaty. A problem is that it means no lasting guarantees against further attacks that the Iranians want. The immediate response from Iran would be to start cranking out missiles again in anticipation of another Israeli attack. Furthermore, it cements Iran as a major regional power–a result Israel, the UAE, and the Saudis may not be able to accept.
I think it’s quite possible that Netanyuhu only needs to glance meaningfully at Trump when Trump suggests some need for Israeli discipline, a cessation, etc.–call it the ´Epstein glance´–and that Trump swallows hard and says, “What can I do for you next, (Ha)Bibi?”
I don´t think we have good options, and I´m with Mearsheimer who says that our options dwindle as the days pass. Now, Iran might or might not be willing to lead the world economy down the toilet–and will be pressured by the likes of China (the hand-held missiles may be some kind of agreed payment for constraint here, shoring up Iran militarily as some concessions are offered). But we’ve broken it, and we’re buying it. South Korea is negotiating directly with Iran. American hegemony is powerfully eroded.
another way to spin base withdrawal as victory: we have finally achieved the historic task that all previous presidents were too weak to do and they’re no longer needed because no one’s seen anything like it before and we have brought peace for the first time in 3000 years.
Karoline Leavitt? Seriously? I took a look at what qualifications this 28 year-old has from her Wikipedia entry-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karoline_Leavitt
Yeah, this is really going to be amateur hour when combined with Vance, Witkoff and Kushner. Bluster will only get you so far. Surprised to see Jack Kean there as well. He was doing a TV interview a day or so ago and had the bright idea to intercept and seize all oil tankers on their way to China to ramp up pressure on the Iranians. Can you imagine? He was specifically talking about oil tankers to China. If Trump tried that, China would probably fly a fighter wing into Iran to help give them fighter cover.
From the scholarship in her bio, she doesn’t look the ideal candidate to play hardball with the revolutionary republic.
paul: Anyone from Chicago will tell you that 16-inch softball is a highly valued skill, and the game with the squooshy ball also causes any number of broken fingers each summer.
Compared to the other dolts in the U.S. delegation, she’s a master strategist.
If she played softball in college they use a 12″ ball (circumference). That level of play uses an eye-catching colored ball. The ball is pitched fast in an underarm delivery. The ball feels hard, not soft, if it were to strike you. So batters are required to wear helmets (w/faceguard) and allowed elbow/wrist guards to protect from errant pitches.
I imagine Ms. Leavitt understands all the ways to get on base.
Forgive my athletic ignorance, she now looks just what the world needs at this moment.
The US is keeping Kanye West for the second round of negotiations.
Ye vs people who learned to negotiate in bazaars. Can we have this on pay per view, please?
That was my reaction as well. Her main qualifications for her current post seem to be that she was a young starry-eyed MAGA believer who interned at the White House during Trump’s first term. I’m guessing her looks helped as well (sorry if this sounds sexist, but we’re talking about Trump).
I had a similar reaction the other day when reading that NY Times story about Trump’s road to Iran. In the final Situation Room meeting to decide whether to go to war, Trump’s “Director of National Intelligence,” Tulsi Gabbard, was nowhere to be found, but *Leavitt* had a seat at the table! Sending her on this mission is much worse, however. Given the stature of the Iranian reps who are reported to attend, can you imagine their reaction? Combined with Israeli assets Witkoff and Kushner, to me it signals that the White House is completely unserious about a “deal.” Leavitt was probably included so she could stand at the podium later and lie about why negotiations failed, like Witkoff did the last time.
Caroline Leavitt is pregnant with a baby girl and she is due in May. That might be when she will be dumped and it will be called maternity leave.
Her hubby is 30 years older than she. Although she already has birthed a child, natal development from aging sperm can be consequential.
If Hope and Crosby had made a movie ‘Road to Iran’, those two would have been more credible than the current US group.
Netanyahu and trump, this generation’s hope and crosby, are finishing their latest, The Road to Ruin. It will be playing in all the Muslim cemeteries everywhere.
Trump and Netanyahu are more like Abbot and Costello. I dare you to figure out who is who.
At this point it doesn’t matter who represents the US. This administration cannot be trusted. If there is any talk, you can “trust” that the US will come with unbelievable lies and there will not be any mutual understanding of sorts. Any talk with current US representatives (no matter who) will be a charade.
i basically laugh/cried when I saw that Leavitt was added to the “team” but ever since the obedient NYT put forward the story the Vance was the “only voice in the room criticizing DTs decision to go to war,” I’m feeling like we’re all being groomed to accept a Vance Presidency if the elites decide they need to remove DT over this. I know I shouldn’t count my disasters before they land-fall, but that report and the fact that his fellow negotiators seem designed to make him come off as “reasonable” and “thoughtful” is turning my stomach.
Shoot the Messenger? Whoops…
Her involvement is a deliberate insult. Whose suggestion? Susie Wiles? What a truly ugly group of people.
Rev Kev: Yves Smith delivers the coup de grâce up top: “The US negotiating team does mot simply show a lack of seriousness but appears intended to insult Iran. JD Vance and the professional-jerkface-masquerading-as-White-House-spokesmonster Karoline Leavitt are heading the negotiations.”
That would be J.D. Vance of the shifting names, of the Francisco Franco / Opus Dei oppressors in the Catholic Church, of the Peter Thiel wing of predatory U.S. capitalism, as Peter Thiel devolves into serious skin problems (as inside, so outside, as above, so below) and Antichrist whackery.
Meanwhile, I read that the Iranians have sent a delegation of eighty-six persons.
What is going on here, in my mind, is this: I’m not going to use the word existential. The war that Iran is now conducting is a war of independence, which makes it all the more urgent for Iranians. The Iranian demands are the demands of a subject country seeking its independence. The enormous delegation is a signal that the revolutionists represent a majority. They may not be Nancy Pelosi’s cup of tea, but the U.S. has had endless numbers of chances since 1945 or so to get its relationship with Iran to work.
And I write this as someone seriously skeptical of how Iran is governed and how the populace is treated.
Yet the U.S. delegation indicates that Anglo-America is fundamentally unserious. These are the upper-middle-class twits who the Monty Python gang warned us about years ago.
Insomma: I was reading an essay by Fabio Mini, a retired Italian general (who commanded U.N. troops in Kosovo for a while) and is now an analyst of geopolitics.To paraphrase him, The Americans show up and claim to know everything, and they don’t know anything.
If Iran can get frozen assets actually released back to them (converted to rubles might be a plan) before the charade ends, that’s a win. It’s banked. No reason why it can’t happen on demand.
Predictably, as soon as the illusion of peace sets in, the Epstein files resurfaces with Melania surprise announcement. Maybe has shown her the tapes. The nature of the threat to Trump, to force him to allow Israel a free hand in the Middle East, is clear.
In a story with so many weird and unexpected twist and turns, the Melania press conference was really bizarre. Especially as it seemed unnecessary and laughably false just based on what’s out there right now. Obviously the Kompromat hangs over all this (though I’d stress Trump is just acting out long time right wing goals anyway) but it almost feels like the joke several here made about using the Epstein files to distract from how poorly the war is going.
(And catty aside, do she and Trump share surgeons? They’re starting to have the same face.)
While it seems accepted wisdom at this point, is blackmail really a factor driving Trump? IIRC during his first term, there were assets in place to strike Iran and he backed off at the very last minute. Planes were in the air, no? Thus we had Trump’s first term as the first in modern U.S. history without a war.
I think that’s most of a sidedish to the main course, which is that getting Iran under US control has been a long time US goal. Does it help? Sure. But I feel a lot of people are making it sound like this is just Israel’s folly and without the Epstein files, we would not be here. Not true at all.
Trump supported the war against Yemen, continued the war against Syria, asassinated Sulemani and continued the war in Afghanistan. So not exactly a term without war. He didn’t start anything new but continued all the existing conflicts and started setting the scene for the current conflict with Iran.
Over in links there was a reference to a Brazilian gal who was detained by ICE, has ties to / deep old ties to Melania, former partner was a Italian Epstein Class mover-shaker, who purportedly introduced Donald to Melania.
The cornered, detained Brazilian reached out to both Melania and Bondi, with thinly veiled threat as part of implorations to be released.
Tweets in links were vaporized. Wheels are coming off. There are dots to connect coming from Tucker Carlson who calmly calls out the potential for Israel blackmail on Trump… Tucker left out Epstein’s name.
That Presser denial might prove a prophetic historic watershed. Spy vs Spy, Boris and Natasha. My head spins– whole Zoo of cornered mover-shakers.
https://bekahdayyy.substack.com/p/a-message-from-amanda-the-epstein
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-strange-case-of-melania-trump-and-amanda-ungaro-the-model-deported-by-ice/
Amanda Ungaro threatened to take down everyone else as well as Melania. She still has a twitter account but deleted tweets yesterday and replies today. I imagine she’s very frightened right now.
Idk what drove her to make it but for me the key features of Melania’s statement were:
– She defended only herself. Nothing in her statement about Donald’s behavior or allegations.
– She called for Congress to hear the testimony of victims, which Donald opposes.
– Donald was blindsided and enraged by the fact of the statement.
.Tom: I am inclined to think that Melania Trump watched the Hillary Clinton testimony, in which:
–Hillary defended only herself and said to ask Bill directly.
–She burbled about victims.
–She didn’t mention Ghislaine Maxwell and the Clinton Foundation and fundraising, which are likely to be in the 30 000 missing e-mail messages. Hmmm.
We collectively also note that Ghislaine Maxwell is being portrayed as the former girlfriend. How could she have been involved?
Well:
–If the scandal is truly about money, Israeli spying, blackmail, power, and subverting the U.S. political/business class, which is what it is, then Maxwell is extremely important. What was her father best known for? Spying for Israel.
–Likewise, Melania Trump and Hillary Clinton. They want to make it look as if the scandal is all about men and sex. It isn’t.
I recall that Hillary Clinton’s testimony truly frosted the cookies of Sabby Sabs, who then started putting up the photos in one of her vlog posts. Likewise, Melania. The photographic evidence is there.
I haven’t read it yet but may set aside some time this evening
First Friends: How the First Couple’s Consigliere Went From Modeling Mogul to Special Envoy
by Mark Goodwin and Whitney Webb
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2025/08/investigative-series/first-friendspt2/
Leavitt to Believer goes on the road…
Lumpy Rutherford (JD Vance) leads the talks that will go nowhere, while presumably, Karoline will don a cheerleading outfit complete with pom-poms and old school megaphone-creating a distraction not dissimilar from a gold cross dangling from her size 18 neck, but less subtle.
There have been reports that Trump wants to get rid of Karoline because she’s terrible at her job and, perhaps, part of the ‘purge the ladies’ impulse. So sending her there could be seen as even more of a childish calculated insult.
Seemingly nobody in this admin is a serious person including stubble boy Vance who looks like he’s wearing eye makeup (analyzed here: https://slate.com/life/2024/07/jd-vance-eyeliner-lashes-trump-campaign.html)
How did our shining city on a hill become so frivolous and so deadly? It’s not just the Repubs.
TBF to Vance, as a Millennial, finding out he’s actually a guyliner-wearing emo would instantly be the coolest thing about him.
Unfortunately I don’t think that’s what’s going on or that he would ever be sincerely tapped into the American zeitgeist like that.
Frillbilly Elegy?
I found it revealing that in spite of their huge delegation, that they were saying that a deal had to be reached in one day. It was only yesterday that Trump was saying that a deal had to be made in just one day or the war was back on again so this may have been the Iranians throwing this back into the face of the US negotiation team. It is kinda weird comparing the two teams. The Iranian one resembles the sort of delegation that the US would once send to negotiations and being full of technical experts. The present US delegation is just Trump’s friends and his son-in-law. No wonder the Iranians don’t want to meet them face to face.
All done! Sorry that today is thin, but all sorts of flight and resulting schedule chaos on an upcoming trip (which I can’t not do given that jet fuel shortages may make air travel close to impossible for some time) ate into my time bigly. Please refresh this page and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
I have a trip to Prague coming up in 6 weeks and wonder what jet fuel availability will be like by then…
I am traveling to Brazil for our winter, leaving in mid July and returning at the end of September. I wonder if either of those flights will be canceled due to changes in fuel cost for the airline, jetsmart.
The worst case is if I have to make my way back from Brazil without the benefit of an airline!
I’m not going anywhere. If I never see the inside of an airport ever again that will be just fine.
Please never apologize and honestly, have a day off for yourself.
If we have to find other sources for even one day I think it’ll help us all appreciate your efforts even more. As if that is needed.
+1 on the Yves can take a day off petition :)
+1 for the petition. As valuable as these updates are, Yves herself is more valuable.
How you apologize after working on a Saturday just shows we don’t deserve you.
Lots of love and appreciation from a fellow Adams House alumnus. As much as I depend on this site to keep me informed and somewhat sane, I REALLY don’t want you to get burnt out. Please pace yourself and understand that we all will benefit from your doing so.
Joseph Aoun, president of Lebanon, is Maronite Christian.
It is the Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, who is Sunni.
Oops, will correct. Did it on memory, Crooke was clearly describing the head of the government and I mistakenly put in “president”.
The transcript generators are refusing to see me as not a bot
With the coming shortage of jet fuels, the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June is probably toast. Air fares were already expensive and the scrutiny of US customs getting aggressive was deterring a lot of people. Then there has been the attempted price gouging for both accommodation and tickets. Lots of people simply not booking those hotel rooms now but ticket prices are something else. This American dude said that he went to the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar and paid about $1,000 for seven tickets. But here, they are asking $1,000 for just one ticket to an obscure match. Said that he is not going at all. Now you have sky-high air fuel prices with flights cancelled, extra fees added and tickets rising in prices. So yeah, for Trump the 2026 FIFA World cup is going to be a bust.
Good. I find the idea of people getting worked up about football or any other sport at a time like this delusional or wilfully ostrich like, to say the least.
Until all those bread and circus charades stop nothing will register with the ignorant majority.
There was a time when international sport was celebrated for its capacity to promote goodwill between nations and peoples. Maybe that was before they kicked Russia out of the Olympics.
And Eurovision! Don’t forget they were kicked out of Eurovision! Which might not qualify as a “sport” — despite similarities in uniforms and equipment — but in the very least I think we can agree that it’s like the world’s longest super bowl halftime show
Yet Israel is in Eurovision and contends in the Europe wing of the world cup.
Are Iceland, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Slovenia still boycotting this year’s Eurovision due to Israel’s involvement? Regardless, there is a great deal of resentment among many Eurovision enjoyers who don’t like Israel’s involvement. Ranging from the double standard of aggressors like Russia and Belarus being kicked out, but the genocidal state of Israel won’t, to the very cynical way Israel uses Eurovision as thinly-veiled hasbara, the incredibly trashy behavior of the Israeli delegation and their fans, and the perception that Israel warps the voting process by telling Zionist allies in Europe to vote for them.
Open it up to Iran and rebrand it
The Indo-European Vision contest.
It would be sweet irony if the war FIFA Peace Prize winner Donald Trump helped start tanked this years World Cup.
I imagine there are “persons” with financial interest who are not happy, like Fox Sports and Telemundo, who have the tv rights to the Cup.
FIFA did it to themselves. I understand that some tickets are going for $10,000 which is pure price gouging.
Large number of unsold seats still for the opening match here in Toronto featuring the Canadian team. Tix are very pricey. Although the joke among locals is that if Italy had ended its long national nightmare and returned to the World Cup there wouldn’t have been any unsold tickets. Indeed, tickets would have been flogged on the resale markets for even higher rates as the very large Italian diaspora in Toronto would have gladly payed any price to cheer on their Azzuri.
I just checked the FIFA website for Canada’s opening round game vs Bosnia. While there are tickets listed for that game, the cheapest one is a “Category 2” ticket (second best seats) for $1,645 a ticket. FIFA is knowingly trying to make bank on this tournament. Anything cheaper for that game likely is on the resale market.
The best hope for us plebes to see a game is that FIFA is unable to sell the typically even more expensive “hospitality packages”, starting at a mere $1,400 per ticket for the Netherlands-Tunisia game in Kansas City (which is the game I bought 2 tickets for my kids at $180 each in the nosebleeds). If these hospitality package go unsold, they likely will need to be unloaded as regular tickets later.
I asked the guide at Lambeau Field last summer if they were interested in hosting a Cup game there. He replied that the Green Bay Packers did not do that. Only occasionally have the Badgers played at Lambeau and no one else, and no other sport than US football. My heart swelled with pride because I was sure that the ownership decided that it wanted nothing to do with FIFA, despite the lucre to be made. Go Pack Go.
Wow. Bugs, you had an ignorant guide.
“Bayern Munich and Manchester City exhibition match at Lambeau Field. The last soccer game played at Lambeau Field was on July 23, 2022. In that match, Manchester City defeated Bayern Munich 1-0 in a friendly, which was the first-ever soccer match held at the stadium. The game was attended by 78,128 fans and was delayed due to lightning.”
I have a vague memory of some local High School football teams playing there too. But that was back, maybe a millennium ago.
Still a big difference between hosting a friendly and working with FIFA.
Green Bay East vs. Green Bay West, whenever West was scheduled to be the home team. I don’t think it’s been played there for at least 50 years though.
It helps not having a billionaire owner. GPG.
Ambrit mentioned yesterday that killing the American delegation in a false flag attack might be the plan.
That makes a lot of sense to me, Vance publicly disagreed with Trump about starting this War and disagreeing with the boss and being right is a very serious crime, Trump has dissed Leavitt and he may not be happy with Kushner and Witkoff for telling him Iran would be a push over.
So, why not use them as an excuse to go Nuclear?
They either betrayed Trump’s trust ( Vance) or they are losers…
Nuts?
I give you Donald Trump, who is nuts.
If I were the Iranians, I would suggest to Mr Vance that he carefully consider the possibilities afforded by Article 25 and then have a brief chat with Ms Leavitt about how to make the requisite announcement.
If worse comes to worst, the Iranians can offer Vance et. al. sanctuary. Imagine, Vance in Teheran as “President” of an American Government in Exile.
Yeah. Don’t count out Mossad.
Kushner would play the fake death(s) role of Max / James Woods in Once Upon A Time in America.
Initial reports were that Vance was refusing to go to Islamabad over “security” concerns. Could Vance have demanded that Karoline Leavitt be added to the delegation as Vance’s hostage against a false flag attack?
I can’t envision the Iranians or the USians doing such a thing, but Mossad? Hell yes, and they might see a mother-to-be as a bonus that would only boost the effect.
This might fall under making shit up, but if it or anything like it happens that’s the default perpetrator until there’s overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Wouldn’t that be the more suitable role for Witkoff and Kushner?
Iran can throw the U.S. a bone by handing over the enriched uranium, which they no longer need, since the efficacy of their conventional missiles has been convincingly demonstrated. This may be enough to let Trump proclaim victory. Israel is the big strategic loser from this war because there will be no “greater Israel.” Israel will make peace with its neighbors or it will cease to exist.
Nice idea but it would never work. Even if Iran handed over their enriched uranium to the US instead of Russia to hold for them, Israel would say that it is still not enough and push the US to go even further. Nothing is ever enough for the Israelis.
The insurmountable problem with Israel is that they NEVER say what they mean and NEVER mean what they say.
To take that a step further, the US could then give the uranium to the Israelis, adding injury to insult.
They are constitutively incapable of the former… which leaves only one option.
I did a double take on the photo in ‘Delayed in Pakistan’ India Today video in that I thought initially George Clooney was in the middle, ha ha.
The thought occurs that in, speaking notionally, a negotiation that is not actually a negotiation, it can be useful to have as negotiators people who are able to lie without looking like they know they are lying and are embarrassed by that.
Yes, if you’re looking for people who are both very likely to fail and also to lie about it, you’d be hard pressed to improve on Leavitt
“people who are able to lie without looking like they know they are lying and are embarrassed by that” –
I didn’t know that she’s a lawyer too.
Can’t see Trump starting this up again. It’s a loser for him and there seems no way to turn it into a winner. All the rest (troop buildup, negotiations) seem rather pointless action that, in Trump style, will amount to not much. When you’ve lost Alex Jones and Candace Owens, you’re really in trouble and all the military/negotiating posturing isn’t going to fix this. That said, I wouldn’t put it past Alex and Candace to change their tune, because none of these people have principles nor do they care about anyone other than themselves.
Trump will not start it up again, Israel will. See Lebanon. Or do you see Trump tossing Israel under the bus and going against AIPAC?
Thank you. I will add The Epstein- Class and puppet -string marionette masters.
But Lawrence Wilkerson asserts that Israel is the USA’s tool.
But he also prepped Colin Powell for his WMD speech at the UN justifying the Iraq War.
If Israel is a tool of the USA, maybe we have too many political leaders unfamiliar with tools, as they don’t get their hands dirty, only bloody.
Barak Ravid
@BarakRavid
21m
🚨🇺🇸🚢Several U.S. navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, U.S. official says
🚨🇺🇸🚢The move was not coordinated with Iran. It’s the first time this happens since the beginning of the war
Well if an Israeli journalist said it, you can take that to the bank. The fact that he serves as a political analyst for CNN and a reporter for Axios only confirms his truthfulness. Next in the news – Netanyahu converts to Catholicism.
There’s some things I believe him on, and some things I don’t. I would have been very surprised if this turned out to be false as a lie would fall apart immediately. Ravid specialises in less obvious, harder to disprove lies.
The ships have now “transited in both directions.” Lies come in many shades.
For example, now he’s lying IMO. Or at least knowingly repeating a lie
Barak Ravid
@BarakRavid
3h
A U.S. official tells me the U.S. did not receive such a warning
If I were Iran, I would let the entire fleet into the Gulf and treat it like a kill zone. Whatever gets in there would not be able to leave or re-arm without extreme difficulty as a best case.
You can’t very well have a ‘Remember the Maine’ incident if you don’t put ships in harms way.
U.S. Destroyer Turns Back Following Firm Warning from Iran
also
https://english.news.cn/20260411/dea87b1977214e00b61b16e4123d9f35/c.html
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-military-ship-turns-back-from-hormuz-route-after-irans-30-min-warning-101775915292475.html
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/11/WS69da4dd6a310d6866eb42e43.html
If this was a real thing, I’m reading that as somebody in the Pentagon trying to spike the peace talks by deliberately putting a destroyer in harm’s way and hoping for an Iranian military reaction. Tough luck if you are a swabbie aboard that ship. I bet that that Chinese intel ship parked in the region told the Iranians exactly where that ship was.
It sounds real. All those reports say the destroyer turned back, which presumably means it was on its way before that.
Last chance to block up the toilet lines.
IMO: They are just pushing at a time they know they’ll probably get a warning, not an immediate attack. Testing the Iranians resolve but in a low-risk pretend-bold way.
Iran is calm enough to turn them back, and continue with talks.
Option B is it was an attempt to get sailors blown up and get the war back in but I do not believe that is something Trump wants
WSJ had this, posted before reports of the destroyer turning back:
Two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, according to three U.S. officials, marking the first transit of American warships through the waterway since the war began six weeks ago. No issues were reported, and the move was described as a freedom-of-navigation mission. The tankers were not escorting commercial ships, the officials said.
The move came as American and Iranian negotiating teams met in Pakistan to discuss an end to the war. President Trump has insisted that the Strait of Hormuz be opened as part of a cease-fire.
(The tankers?)
A “freedom-of-navigation mission”? So, a *taunting* mission? WTAF??
Add this to the ever-growing pile of bizarre events in this insane war.
So apparently the Strait was penetrated after all. But according to other sources noted by commenters, it was only one destroyer. Or was it? Who the hell knows at this point. I fully expect to read next that the USS Abe Lincoln sailed into the Gulf with its entire crew lined up on its flight deck doing a jig.
Hard not to see this as intentionally provocative.
I would not want to be traveling with the US diplomatic team.
So apparently the Strait was penetrated after all.
I guess Iran has missiles, drones, subs, speedboats and wotnot in places other than the banks of the Strait itself. It seems pretty clear who has actual control over what goes in and out.
This begs the question: how End-Timesy evangelical is the admiral sending them there?
We know that Hegseth falls into the “extremely” category, but the admiral has some leeway regarding carrying out orders.
Map showing they went all the way through, then (seemingly) got turned back and returned to the Arabian sea.
MidEast Spectator Telegram
NEW: The U.S. warship passed the Strait of Hormuz from the East, entering the Persian Gulf, and then abruptly turned around following an Iranian warning, leaving the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea
It’s unclear if the U.S. warship took the normal route (red) or Iran’s newly designated route (yellow), because its transponder was off until it started the return journey.
(Map credit: MenchOsint)
Man, that was so stupid and reckless that. Can you imagine the tension aboard those destroyers? You would have been able to cut it with a knife. I myself would have been s***ting bricks. It was only the self-discipline of the Iranian military that stopped this war starting up again with an attack on those ships. So was this Trump’s idea or was it Hegseths. Freedom of navigation my a**.
Definitely (w)reckless. Especially as this could have turned into another quasi-hostage crisis by letting the destroyers enter the fish trap and then close it behind them.
Trump playing “just the tip”
Trump: “We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World” lololol
Also still with the praise Allah bs. Particularly offensive in this sentence.
—-
The Fake News Media has lost total credibility, not that they had any to begin with. Because of their massive Trump Derangement Syndrome (Sometimes referred to as TDS!), they love saying that Iran is “winning” when, in fact, everyone knows that they are LOSING, and LOSING BIG! Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft apparatus is nonexistent, Radar is dead, their Missile and Drone Factories have been largely obliterated along with the Missiles and Drones themselves and, most importantly, their longtime “Leaders” are no longer with us, praise be to Allah! The only thing they have going is the threat that a ship may “bunk” into one of their sea mines which, by the way, all 28 of their mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea. We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves. Very interestingly, however, empty Oil carrying ships from many Nations are all heading to the United States of America to LOAD UP with Oil. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Translation:
We’ve just demonstrated who controls entry into the Gulf. And up yours to Muslims worldwide.
We were just doing a little gunboat diplomacy, don’t get your panties in a bunch.
Here’s Sal at What’s Going on With Shipping reporting on this:
US Destroyers Enter Persian Gulf – Strait Still Open? | Plus, Empty Supertankers Heading to the US
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Nu4qbbOj2M
The first thing to be borne in mind, I think, is that in such a situation the negotiation process becomes itself a political issue. You can get points by proposing a negotiation, you can get points by attending, you can deliberately up the ante by saying how optimistic you are beforehand, only to be publicly disappointed at the intransigence of the other side later. It’s a game that has been played many times, sometimes for the benefit of your population and sometimes for the benefit of world opinion, and I suspect the negotiations are only happening because on balance both sides see advantage in them. The content, if there is any, is secondary. The Iranians are anyway playing the long game, and the US wants to reassure the markets. It’s more a question of why not? than anything else. Commentators on Iran have elected to treat this as “progress”, and to see the failure of the talks as a bad sign. But I continue to think that negotiations, in the formal sense, are irrelevant. It’s likely that in the end the US will have to tacitly accept things that it could never accept in a written document. For the Iranians it’s logical to want a document, since the humiliation for the US will be all the greater.
What I don’t understand is the persistent references to Lebanon. The tweet by Chishti above is bizarre, as the whole “ceasefire in Lebanon” issue has been since the start. Israel is not present at the talks, and the US can no more agree something on Israel’s behalf than I could borrow money from a bank on your behalf without your agreement. The Iranians obviously know this, so it’s not clear to me what was actually discussed, let alone agreed, under this heading last time. I can imagine the US saying that they thought it was “desirable” that the “ceasefire” should include Lebanon, and I can even imagine them agreeing to put pressure on Israel. But they can’t promise something they have no power to give. In any event, if Crooke’s analysis is correct, then there is no way the Netanyahu will stop his attacks, so the whole thing is pointless anyway. My guess (no more than that) is that the Iranians understand this quite well, and they intend to squeeze the US in the nutcracker of one hand Israeli intransigence, and on the other continued attrition of US forces and interests, until something snaps.
US absolutely can stop Israel from bombing Lebanon, after all Reagan did just that decades ago with one phone call. They just don’t want to and the point of this demand is to make that obvious.
Maybe. Trump not being Reagan and the Epstein Affair happening after Reagan confound the certainty of your claim.
> They just don’t want to
The “why” behind this seems important. T Carlson has speculated that Israel may be threatening DJT in some way or other.
No. This is the problem with all these “X controls Y” arguments that are so popular. The US cannot physically prevent Israel from bombing Lebanon except by destroying its Air Force and occupying its air bases. What people mean is that the US could put such political pressure on Israel that the latter would have to stop. But even if the US threatened to cut off military aid (and it’s doubtful if the US political system would permit it) it would take far too long for any actual effects to show. Thus in practice, whilst there is a script which says that the US can normally pressure Israel into something if it is prepared to make enough effort, that’s a question of politics, not of physics. If Netanyahu wants to ignore the US, there’s nothing practical in the short term that Washington can do. On the other hand, Netanyahu can blow up the region if he wants to.
In any case, what’s in it for him? If Crooke’s analysis is correct, all this is driven by Netanyahu’s desire to stay out of prison. Why should he agree to go to prison just to stop the Middle East going up in flames?
Another option for the US would be to unplug Israel from their intelligence network. That would put a real crimp in Israel’s military planning. A reason why Iran is winning is because they are plugged into the Chinese and Russian networks so it does make a difference.
I provided en example of what you claim is impossible actually happening in reality.
With such logic you could claim Israeli government itself can not prevent bombing of Lebanon, because there is always possibility that some parts of army will decide to continue lobbing bombs on Beirut.
There is nothing in it for Netanyahu, obviously. But for Iranians there is the fact of bringing these dynamics into the open.
Technically, it seems there is one way of doing it without having to deal with the Congress’ fully expected refusal. It’s purely theoretical of course, as you’ll see.
It’s been said that Trump can nuke Tehran any time if he was so inclined, because he doesn’t need any confirmation by anyone else, only him pushing a button is required. So even if the USA are not in a legal state of war, declared by Congress, with Iran, it seems the US president can nuke Iran at will.
Well, Trump can just phone Netanyahu and tell him he has 3 hours to stop the bombing, or he, Trump, will nuke Jerusalem. I mean, it’s Trump, the guy’s acting totally crazy and is badly copying Nixon’s strategy – so were I Bibi and would I get such a phone call, I wouldn’t entirely dismiss it at once but would have to do a double-check at the very least.
Not that any US president will ever go that far, as far as threats are concerned; not that any US president would stay in office for long if actually making such a threat; and of course no US president would physically survive long if he actually went through.
But indeed, apart from such a Trumpian unhinged level of threat, I fear that Netanyahu won’t really care.
The idea that the US doesn’t have a tight leash on Israel is completely ridiculous. Just because we haven’t yanked that leash in almost a decade doesn’t mean it’s not there.
The Israeli Air Force flies American made planes that require American supplied jet fuel, with American supplied replacement parts, using an endless supply of American made munitions flown in on daily flights from the United States. The pilots are often US citizens, too!
They’re entire ISR is supplied by American satellites and analyzed with American targeting software, all funded by American subsidies and American taxpayers.
The country has only gotten FAR MORE dependent on the United States since 10/7/2023 when they decided it was time for endless bombardment and destruction of everyone in the region who dared not follow their direct orders, and often times many who DID follow their orders.
I actually think it’s plausible that the US could topple Netanyahu with a tweet from Trump. If he said something like:
“Israel needs to change it’s leadership because we can’t deal with ‘Backstabbing-Bibi’ if we’re going to get a peace deal in the region. Israelis need to replace their Prime Minister, NOW! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Now, I’m not 100% convinced he could do it with a tweet, it might take a few weeks. I think Biden tried to hint that maybe Israel should change PM at some point. But, with Trump, things are far more clear and direct. Combine that with a mysterious blackout in ISR, maybe shut down that command center where the US coordinates everything on the ground in Israel. Once all those supply planes stop arriving at David Ben-Gurion airport for a few days. The Israeli Knesset will swiftly make a move.
Exactly this. Saying the US can’t tell Israel what to do is the stupidest argument ever, Israel couldn’t wipe it’s ass without Uncle Sucker and his endless logistical backstop. Aurelian’s argument insanely presents Israel as some kind of autarchy that can simply ignore the people literally sending them all the supplies they need to keep fighting(!!!). Laughable. If anything, as you say, Israel is even more dependent now on the US than ever before.
The genociders themselves think as much, and it makes them seethe: (nov 2023) Biden is the primary obstacle to Israeli victory
“Period” indeed!
Oddly enough, it’s implicitly given that Iran can stop Hezbollah.
One could point out that from the warring parties neither Hezbollah or “Lebanon” are represented in the negotiations, either.
Agreed and apologies as my comment degraded the specifics in context.. I’ll stand by my opinion in the general sphere.
what is this thing “the US” that has a tight leash on this other thing “Israel”?
“The US” is a political fiction which, in reality, refers to a collection of other fictions (organisations) each run by people. How is the leash that the US allegedly has on Israel any more real than the leashes that Zionist megadonors have on the people running the many cogs of the US organisation?
This view that Country A controls country B because B depends on A is anachronistic, if it was ever true.
Again, it’s about the logistical military reality. Unless you are suggesting that Israel can magically carpet bomb Lebanon without bombs, spare parts and fuel, and invade on land without bullets?
The hand that holds the leash matters. AIPAC neutering Congress matters. Who will yank the chain?
Aurelien’s argument was:
Which is, plainly, not correct. “Period”, as the good General Brick said. Israel’s military is completely dependent on American logistics, ergo should Washington decide to turn off the taps, the show is quite literally over no matter what Isreal wants or however much they kvetch about it. Period.
As for AIPAC, they are one (clearly very powerful) lobby group in Congress and America’s elite, but Congress has more things to worry about than just Israel’s right to murder children, but if they really want to shoot the global economy in the head for AIPAC and usher in Global Depression 2.0, well that is certainly something they can do. If Israel runs the US that completely then I suppose we will see soon enough.
You are forgetting a reality of logistics. Yes, Israel is dependent on the U.S. for every bomb and every drop of aviation fuel. With the development of “just in time” warehousing in the 80s and 90s that dependence became more acute. However, they have some stocks on hand, perhaps more than we know. So if President Trump cuts off every particle of support, the Israelis can keep shooting and bombing for a while. Maybe a couple of days, maybe a couple of weeks. Cutting off ISR would be hurtful, but would (does) not stop them.
pray tell, how do you suggest the US withhold military assets to Israel? A sudden change of heart by the leadership? They are in the places they’re in because of what they will and won’t do. If it was possible for Reagan to yank the leash 40 years ago it’s because Zionism was not yet in absolute control. Things are different now.
One phone call is still all it would take. I agree in that normally supporting Israel is an easy choice for American elites, and it wouldn’t be possible to abandon Israel so easily, but the Iranians have made the choice (and costs) for America’s elites very stark indeed: they can either yank the leash that they have over Israel, or burn their own houses down while unleashing Great Depression 2. That’s what Iran’s choke-hold over the Straits means. Saying “no” to their pet middle eastern colony is actually the cheaper option for them even if they don’t like the choices on offer.
No, the world observably doesn’t work like that. Nobody can press a button in Washington and just make things happen. Netanyahu just has to say no. There are theoretical levers which could be applied, but there’s no certainty that they will be, and indeed I rather doubt it. By the time they were theoretically agreed, introduced, had some effect, Lebanon would be a smoking ruin and the world economy would be toast. I thought that Iran had begun to demonstrate to absolutely everyone the limits of US power, but there are still some who don’t get it.
FFS. Who is Yahoo supposed to say no to that outranks the President???
Care to explain these “observations” ? This was literally within my own goddamn lifetime:
REAGAN DEMANDS END TO ATTACKS IN A BLUNT TELEPHONE CALL TO BEGIN
A shocked and outraged President Reagan telephoned Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin Thursday…
I don’t know why you keep insisting on this bogus argument. The Israeli murder machine runs on an endless logistical tether of C-17 Globemasters flying in American supplies day and night, and that is entirely in the purview of the clowns in the executive branch in Washington. Yahoo can pull his leavers and exact his costs, whatever those may be, but he is not the “decider” here, to put it into Bush Jr. words.
The confounder is that Iran is not being attacked by “the US” but by the Empire, a transnational criminal gang that has taken over the governments of the US, the UK, and several other countries, and that acts like a parasite riding on their backs and directing them (like Heinlein’s The Puppet Masters in a way). So “the US” can speak for “Israel” because both of those are just pseudopods of the Empire, even though the Empire has no diplomatic identity that anyone acknowledges. The nation-state is so passé now, after all! The people hoarding the wealth and the power have no real loyalty to their countries and the people of those countries, instead they use those countries as a facade from behind which to inflict atrocities on anyone that gets in their way.
Huh? Israel depends on US ISR. Which may now be only US AWACs
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-radars-airstrikes/
Iran was able to strike very close to Dimona. They could have hit Dimona if they wanted to.
The US is entirely capable of constraining Israel that way ALONE.
Many experts said with respect to the then much better kitted out Ukraine that we similarly could have bought them to heel pronto by ending our ISR support.
To your last question the only thing I can gather is extreme international pressure (including the US) on Israel so that Netanyahoo risks becoming isolated. Without US sponsorship and relations with the rest of the world pendant on he stopping this stupidity, if he does not stop somebody in Israel would probably “stop” him. The world, Israel included, is going to experience a socioeconomic shock of enormous impact because… Netanyahoo want’s to avoid imprisonment.
I have no respect for this man so I write the surname as i like.
I’ve been preferring Netanyahaeiou but I haven’t used it here until now because I had wanted to not distract from my point but I just had two shaken not stirred and the 1.75 is empty so there it is.
Congrats to Spain on reopening their embassy in Tehran.
Holy cow, didn’t notice that. Certainly something commendable.
Remember all those bombs that dropped on Beirut and all those Lebanese villages? Probably all of them came from US stocks. The US could yank Israel’s chain hard by simply stopping all bomb deliveries for the next fortnight, not that they will. They have forgotten how. Nevertheless, you cannot have a negotiation where the Iranians are expected to not strike the allies of the US such as the Gulf State countries while they let the US & Israel to be free to strike Iran’s allies. The real world does not work that way. The Iranians are saying that there will be peace everywhere or peace nowhere. If Iran abandons Hezbollah and Lebanon, then their word means nothing and their allies will cease to be – which just happens to be Iran’s strategic depth. The Trump regime agreed to this plan including Lebanon but are now reneging and talking up bs how there were three 10 point peace plans that they received and that they never agreed to that in spite of confirmation by the Pakistanis.
I don’t know who these “commentators in Iran” are. There is ample evidence of the reverse, of intense anger in Iran against Americans and Israelis (about the deception, the assassinations, the failure to apologize or act embarrassed about the slaughter of the girls and the Minab school). I don’t see evidence of support in Iran for talking with utterly untrustworthy Americans.
This is how it’s being reported, at least in Europe. Sample recent headline from Channel 4 news:
Iran and US hold talks – can they achieve peace?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iov_QW2W58
The European media, at least, is firmly of the view that these are “talks about peace” and that we must hope that they succeed.
The “European media?” Prof. Marandi would say the “Epstein Media”. Not exactly a source of unbiased, accurate information.
No doubt he would. But compared to the hundreds of outlets and thousands of journalists we’re talking about, his opinion is a rounding error. The overwhelming western media view is that these negotiations are a chance for peace that both sides should take and that a negotiated solution is still possible. I don’t believe that, but I’m realistic enough to accept that my opinions put me in a very, very small minority.
Even Chas Freeman in his conversation yesterday with Nima R. Alkhorshid seemed to indulge in a little wishful thinking.
That the US can’t negotiate for ISR is technically true obviously. But the US could for example, suspend all aid to ISR and invite them to deal with Iran one on one.
Iran clearly understands that any agreement with the US is pointless. They need to change facts on the ground.
This line of argument does not seem logical to me. It’s not a question of the U.S. agreeing to a ceasefire on Israel’s behalf, but of the U.S. ordering Israel to stop attacks or face an immediate cut-off of all American military aid.
That might be politically very difficult (though in fact Trump has shown that he is able to pull off actions that would have been thought politically impossible under any previous presidency) but if the Israelis thought the threat was real, they almost certainly would stop the attacks rather than face the end of Israel as a state.
Regarding the bank analogy (the U.S. could no more agree to something on Israel’s behalf than you could take money out of my bank account without my agreement): if you were to hold a gun to my head and ask me nicely to take money out of my bank account and give it to you, I’d comply lickedy-split.
U.S. can also make it clear that if Lebanon is not included then Israel is not included either and Iran is free to continue the missile bombardment of Israel – U.S. forces will not intervene in any way nor intercept a single missile.
U.S. can also cut all the oil shipments to Israel from USA and/or Syria trough Turkiyet. And Trump can even announce 1000% tariff to any country that trades with Israel.
One cannot separate military and political actions – to cite Clausewitz – they are two sides of the same coin. Trump could apply military-political pressure on Israel to achieve his aims (until he changes his mind) to achieve his goals.
Will Trump do so? Apparently, for the moment. See PressTV report that Trump pressed Israel not to be evil for a day or two to get his market-calm negotiations (and short-selling opportunity).
“Israel is not present at the talks, and the US can no more agree something on Israel’s behalf than I could borrow money from a bank on your behalf without your agreement.”
Are the Gulf monarchies being included in the ceasefire?
South Vietnam wasn’t at the Paris Peace Talks either (at least not the parts that mattered.)
I think Lebanon is there because the real price is Israel, even more than the Hormuz. Iran’s “real” terms are: world economy or “from Euphoria to Denial”? Should be an easy choice for a rational regime in DC, but can a US government after 1963 publicly throw Israel under the bus?
The first thing to be borne in mind, I think, is that in such a situation the negotiation process becomes itself a political issue. You can get points by proposing a negotiation, you can get points by attending
The Iranians should send someome to re-enact Ben Affleck’s character from “Good Will Hunting”. Just show up and say ridiculous things and ask them for a couple hundred bucks as a good will gesture. Then, complain that the Americans who gave you money just violated US federal govt sanctions policy.
> What I don’t understand is the persistent references to Lebanon.
Ambassador Freeman yesterday on Dialogue Works said that he thinks the Iranians see the Israel/Lebanon issue as a test of whether the Americans are really serious about ending this war. If they can’t or won’t call off the Israelis then these negotiations are just a means for the U.S. to reload before renewed hostilities.
Starting at about the 4th minute.
https://www.youtube.com/live/fFoKpqMTpq8?si=UYoh1UEFwd1A0Tzn
I suspect that including the precondition that Israel cease attacks on Lebanon when Israel isn’t at the negotiating table is at the crux of Iran’s participation in these talks. Hosts Pakistan and “real party in interest” China are testing the “X controls Y” principle in real time and will be able to demonstrate the results to the rest of the world.
The U.S. government, under both the Biden and Trump administrations, has continually protested its “helplessness” to prevent Israel from committing genocides in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Rubio had the audacity to claim that the U.S. only attacked Iran because Israel was going to unilaterally attack and Iran might retaliate against U.S. assets.
Perhaps now Iran, Pakistan, and China will be able to conclusively prove that American claims of helplessness in controlling Israeli genocidal aggression are in fact evidence of American unwillingness and complicity. Then perhaps it becomes politically feasible to enlist the global community to sanction the United States in an effective manner.
Why does Israel get a pass on the nuclear weapons issue? I’ve heard “Iran can not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons” but I’ve NEVER heard “How many and what type of nukes does Israel have?”.
So my question becomes “Israel has nukes so why shouldn’t Iran have them?”.
Because the world is not fair.
Because Israel has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran did under the Shah.
France and Pakistan have nukes too.
Because Israel has
Because, rules-based world order. Here are the rules.
1. Whatever we say, is the rule (we being neocons in us/israel)
2. The rules apply to you, they do not apply to us.
3. We make up the rules as we go, and you must go along with it.
Note how they do not say LAW-based international order, because law is clearly defined and for something to become international law it must be signed and ratified as treaty. “Rules” is nebulous and it’s whatever Trump or Biden or Hillary says this week.
Iran’s new supreme leader has severe and disfiguring wounds, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-new-supreme-leader-has-severe-disfiguring-wounds-sources-say-2026-04-11/
Pakistan sends fighter jets to Saudi Arabia as part of defence agreement
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/04/11/pakistan-sends-fighter-jets-in-saudi-arabia-as-part-of-defence-agreement/
Hezbollah rocket hits school in northern Israel Arab town, no injuries reported
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjtqqu8nwg
North Korean leader Kim backs China’s push for ‘multipolar world’ in talks with foreign minister
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-china-kim-yi-meeting-606b660fdd504641adbd805d7fcb1407
Iran war: US official denies claims Washington agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-denies-iranian-claim-of-agreeing-to-unfreeze-assets-amid-talks/articleshow/130189593.cms
Thailand’s multi-billion-dollar fishing industry is in ‘big trouble’ after war doubles diesel prices
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-11/middle-east-war-fuel-prices-hit-thailand-fishing-industry-work/106554192
UK pauses its plan to cede Chagos Islands [to Mauritius] after US opposition
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pauses-its-plan-cede-chagos-islands-after-us-opposition-2026-04-11/
‘My companions’: Iranian delegation carries photos of Minab school strike victims on flight to Pakistan
https://www.indiatvnews.com/amp/news/world/my-companions-iranian-delegation-carries-photos-of-minab-school-strike-victims-on-flight-to-pakistan-2026-04-11-1037122
US intelligence indicates China preparing weapons shipment to Iran, CNN reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-intelligence-indicates-china-preparing-weapons-shipment-iran-cnn-reports-2026-04-11/
The photos of the schoolgirls is a powerful moral message. If I were to advise the Iranian delegation, I would suggest that each member wear a lapel pin, about 1- 1 1/2″ square, with a photo of one of those killed; perhaps with “Minab” and the date of the slaughter underneath. Sorry if this seems like sentimentalizing a mass murder, but the world needs to remember who the (very) bad guys are. (And if some Pakistanis object, I would reply “Fuck protocol”).
All the Iranians have to do is split the Hormuz tolls between themselves, the Omanis and the Trump family. Then the Iranians will get everything else they want.
Seriously, I thought they should try to cut him in for like 1% of revenues. Then, record the conversation and leak to the press when he denies it.
Or, if he openly accepts it, congress will prob impeach him.
Either way, winning!!!
Since they’ve already said they’ll take crypto anyway, would be easier to announce the only one they’ll accept is the Trump-affiliated stablecoin. Witkoff is involved in that thing too, no?
Weirdly enough that may be more or less where we are:
NEW: According to initial reports, there is a stalemate on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz
America doesn’t want Iran to collect tolls or control the Strait, but if it does, the U.S. wants part of the revenue.
@Middle_East_Spectator
I seldom use “Trump” and “idea” in the same sentence but that idea has Trump written all over it. At least they haven’t gotten to the point of demanding that that portion of the revenue be deposited into his offshore Board of Peace account.
Yet. That Board of Peace is already short of money.
US Intel indicates China is preparing a weapons shipment to Iran? Another reason why CNN will go into the dustbin of history (good riddance) – Carl Zha reported they have already been landing. Alistair Crooke reported a month ago that China’s weapons shipments have been landing throughout the war. CNN’s only business model with their aging, over-50 viewership is direct government subsidization for their propaganda; however, the US neocons will never support subsidization…
Also, I heard from reuters that Khamenei was gay. Are the spy outlets having problems with their psyops traction? I suppose that reuters next will report that he was on Epstein Island with Melania and got syphilis. I won’t read that article when reuters writes it in a week either.
Urgent: U.S. agrees to release of Iran’s blocked assets, truce in Lebanon: Iranian state-run TV
Iranian source says US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian funds, Washington denies it
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iranian-source-says-us-has-agreed-release-frozen-iranian-assets-qatar-other-2026-04-11/
Remember that when Trump was negotiating with NBC for his “Apprentice” show, he demanded $1M per episode. He ended up getting less than that when NBC pushed back. But he put it into the contract that they had to pretend he got $1M. As in, lie to the public about the true state of affairs.
So that tells you everything about how this guy rolls. He has to be seen as winning, even if it’s a lie. I’ll bet that those assets are unfrozen.
I’m curious. Were any of the sanctions on Iraq lifted after our invasion in 2003? I’m asking because I never read anything about them.
Do not waste my time by asking questions that can easily be answered by an Internet search. It’s rude and effectively an assignment, which is a violation of our written site Policies.
DUBAI, April 11 (Reuters) – A senior Iranian source said on Saturday the U.S. had agreed to release Iranian frozen assets held in Qatar and other foreign banks, but a U.S. official swiftly denied the assertion.
until an actual named US official says it’s happening, it’s all wish-casting or rumor-mongering or an “Iranian official” repeating something he read on Twitter.
financial transactions with Iran are still sanctioned by US executive order—-any Qatari bank that releases funds to Iran will be sanctioned (barred from touching the US financial system) unless given an explicit waiver from the Treasury Dept
No compliance department would just sign-off on such a transfer without an explicit, unequivocal greenlight from Bessent.
It’s really quite remarkable. Both sides are telling their people that the other side is acceding to their demands while rebuking the other side. What we have is a real ceasefire because of pretend agreements.
Trump Throws Vance Under the Bus With Bonkers Iran Taunt
“President Donald Trump has undermined his vice president while he is in the middle of peace talks with a Truth Social rant invoking Allah to brag about killing Iranian leaders.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-throws-vance-under-the-bus-with-bonkers-iran-taunt/
Trump Raked in $28 Million From Middle East Business Deals. Then He Started a War.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/trump-iran-war-oman-golf-hotels/
Treasury Adviser Admits Agency Didn’t Prepare for Economic Fallout of Trump’s Iran War
https://www.commondreams.org/news/treasury-department-iran-war
US Dominance in the Middle East Is ‘Basically Over’
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-maleeha-lodhi-weekend-interview/
The corruption, grift, war crimes, incompetence, Dunning Krueger syndrome, buffoonery, of the entire US regime topped off with the unhinged, mentally-ill emperor would make a great Hollywood movie, but this is so over the top, you can’t make it up. Truth is “better” than fiction, or in this case, more tragic and embarrassing. As Maximus said in the movie Gladiator: “are you not entertained?!”
Like some of the worst Roman emperors, he is likely a child-rapist, and certainly a war criminal, party to genocide, and sundry crimes against humanity. (If we were to judge Roman emperors by today’s standards)
If I could take a guess the Mad Emperor’s behavior is due to his long-standing amorality, mendacity, coupled with more recent symptoms of cognitive decline. To top it off, he never shuts up. Rumors have been going around for years that he’s jacked up on Aderall (amphetamines). In short, he is one “sick f*ck”
Given Ann’s comment (thanks Ann) I read Trump’s latest two messages on Truth Social. I get up a couple of times to pace up and down just to get through these two short texts. It’s so amazingly deeply effed up.
We’re doomed.
Even if they gave him the pillow we still cannot get out of this because US and Israel politics are so screwed up. The best possible outcome now, given where we are, would be to accept the defeat and the new realities, cut Israel off altogether, and put competent people in charge of repairing what can be repaired and PDQ and even then it’s going to be really rough. But there’s no way US politics permits that no matter who is president. So we’re doomed.
Yeah, hard not to be doom and gloom. The US poses as a democracy, yet there is no way to vote against the interests of the oligarchy.
Ann has been “on fiyah” with all the great links, Cheers Ann!
Trumpigula
No surprise that the US again reneged on an offer, not only Lebanon but also unfreezing Iranian assets.
“The check is in the mail. (Five mins later): Actually, we never agreed to send a check”. Lol
Iran should say: “after the unfrozen assets have been transferred to our account, then we’ll talk”
And keep up all the other maximalist demands. They could take an approach similar to that of Russia in the Ukraine conflict, i.e., the longer the US/Israel dithers and tries to stall, the more concessions Iran will expect.
E.g., $2m toll per ship this week, and if no agreement is reached by May 1st, it’ll be $4m per ship. Etc.
Pass all the costs of USian perfidy on to everybody else.
“Davis posits that the US will use the two-week fake ceasefire to regroup and launch more intense action after that.”
He could be saying this may happen because USA administration and negotiators could be working off their own reasoning that Iran has shown the importance of Hormuz, but they still have to work on the perception that they are as important to the global economy as the Strait.
Well, two weeks of a fake ceasefire is two more weeks that practically zero commercial traffic moves through the strait. Then, if the war starts back up, even more delay and uncertainty.
Mr. Market may not like it. It’s priced like this thing is over.
it’s not really a fake ceasefire if Iran really is ceasing its fire despite there not being any possibility of agreement.
Been a fair amount of comments about Hormuz and freedom of navigation in international waters, from European and Gulf countries. Martyanov had a blog post yesterday that I thought helpful.
The UK has been threatening to interfere with Russian tankers traveling through the North Sea. Russia’s response? Send Russian naval vessels to the area. Ships carrying supersonic and hypersonic missiles. Not appeals to international law.
Transit is guaranteed by military power.
UNCLOS not ratified by the US, or Iran. any form of law, municipal or international, is only as good as the ability to punish the “violator”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea
…freedom of navigation, international law blah blah, how very quaint. The hypocrisy and double-standards are so deep I need an SCBA so as not to suffocate.
When we have unhinged freaks perpetrating genocides and some of the worst crimes in modern history, I think we might have to take pause for a minute to reassess the norms and values of collective human behavior
I mostly agree with Aurelien’s take above except that the US could stop Israel very quickly by blocking fuel, spare parts, ammo, weapons, logistics support, ISR support, etc. etc. Israel would be on it’s knees in short order.
But none of that will happen. Whether we believe that Israel is a forward garrisonI state of the empire, or whether Israel calls all the shots, it really doesn’t matter.
I actually think that at some point in the future it – the abandonment by the US of Israel – is almost sure to happen, and probably quite suddenly. Leaving Israel out to dry much like the Crusader kingdoms of old.
Because strategically, the American Empire has always ultimately abandoned, walked away from, or outright betrayed its vassals, proxies and “allies”, often at the drop of a hat. What matters is the internal political situation, once certain tendencies hit critical mass, you see a sometimes drastic policy shift, and who-cares-what-we-told-you-yesterday sort of attitude. This is more or less what Kissenger had meant with his “to be America’s friend is fatal” quote.
I agree that we are extremely unlikely to see this happen while Trump is President. And I have grave doubts as to whether “critical mass” on Israel would be reached even if Trump were, as a result of the Iran war, assuming the current “ceasefire” does not hold or produce a peace settlement, ultimately defenestrated in some fashion. And I have further grave doubts that any mainstream 2028 candidate (e.g. Vance-Newsom) would go so far as well.
But when a bunch of Republican propagandists like Tucker – well-funded propagandists, at that – start railing against Israel daily, and the DNC takes a hold-position tack on Israel support instead of a full-throated endorsement, and the Pentagon was never happy to begin with to have to fire so many missiles not at China, you know that forces are afoot. The only question is when critical mass is reached, and how much suffering has to be endured beforehand.
Good points, and we could add neo-Realist (aggressive Realist) IR scholars like Mearsheimer to the mix. But is the War on China inevitable?
The ship for the war on china has sailed into the weapons graveyard of Ukraine and now Iran. No standoff weapons and no rare earths – no war (unless nuclear and then there are only losers including the US. A silver lining to all the horror.
Yeah, that time is definitely coming. Trump might be the last Israel-first President. I think the next one is going to find themselves moving away from the colony of crazies. They’ve become way too much of a flagrant liability.
If a bunch of people hostile to Israel suddenly come into power and fill key positions with like-minded people and defenestrate big money at home, then it would happen very quickly. But whether such a thing is possible absent a revolution or military coup, I have my doubts.
U.S. warships cross Strait of Hormuz for first time since Iran war began
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/11/us-iran-navy-strait-of-hormuz
I keep seeing this in several places, but is it really true?
Axios … so… we should take it with a fistful of salt.
Many are reporting it turned back. Can’t imagine why Iran would not blow it out of the water if it gets too close. Iran never said the straits were open, just that they would start working through the backlog (if Israel stops being evil for a few days).
I’m reading on Telegram now that Iran issued a warning and the US ships then turned back. Seems the US figured the ships wouldn’t be attacked during the talks, since only US/Israel does that.
Since the Iranians are proving to be quite adept at trolling, I’d suggest that what they need to do is send the US an invoice for 2 million dollars for the toll fee, then hold off talks until it’s paid.
In gold.* Or crypto.
*Local goldbug, remember? :-)
It seems remarkable to me that anyone who has been even casually watching what’s going on in the Middle East would write this sentence.
The idea that Iran would “quickly comply” with Trump’s “admonitions” badly misreads the power dynamics at work. Iran is in no mood to comply with anything that Trump administration wants, especially after seeing its leadership assassinated, it’s civilians and civilian infrastructure devastated, and it’s steel and oil manufacturing industries ruthlessly destroyed. The fact that Trump wants something is an excellent reason to Iranians to refuse to do it just in its own right.
Secondly, since when is Iran interested in letting more traffic pass through the straits of Hormuz? This has emerged as one of Iran’s major levers of power during this US initiated war, and they are certain to use it wisely as the war progresses.
The NYT, always bad, seems to be getting worse and worse.
The NYT says it’s “according to US officials.” In other words, the enemy wants to portray Iran as eager to surrender immediately and unconditionally, but unable to do so due to its incompetence.
The last few videos Richard Medhurst has dropped are very depressing but the conclusions seem valid. Here is the one he produced yesterday:
https://youtu.be/0nt1CgQsgpI?si=Y6jKeXSwZRnnMKno
Hopefully someone with more expertise can say why this possible US plan to corner the LNG and oil markets will fail.
If not, well I guess our best hope is the best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men…
Some interesting points, but still too reliant on the narrative that the “petrodollar” was the main thing driving US finance.
Medhurst has some excellent reporting, but I think he goes too far when speculating this will result in the US re industrializing. I don’t see any ship-building of any global significance going on in the US any time soon. For starters, it would take many years to ramp up manufacturing capacity in general, with all of the heavy industry, steel, etc. that is not produced in the US. Profs. Hudson, Wolff and others have talked about this for a long time.
What he also leaves out is the growing crisis with urea, nitrogen, naphtha, helium, sulfuric acid etc. etc. He focuses on the LNG itself, but where is all of the derivative products going to come from? The US looks like the best it can do is a wild and reckless gamble to re-establish hegemony. Also, he seems to believe that the US Navy can enforce the piracy and extortion racket world-wide. All those ships would be quite vulnerable to asymmetric attack as we have seen recently.
Prices will rise dramatically in the US (regardless of currency fluctuations) and will likely create political chaos in the US itself, as well as expedite the falling quality of life in the US. The emperor already said that there is no money for health care, infrastructure etc. because they need a couple trillion per year for weapons and wars.
So yeah, BigOil, and MICIMATT profit, but if they have shortages of rare earths, helium and other products, where will the weapons come from to extort the other countries? It’s all a big clusterf
Regarding the US Navy, your point is well taken. Yet why does Russia allow this fiction that it is the Ukrainians who are attacking their ships? Why does Russia continue to allow Khiril Dimetiev to have influence? Having seen the damage that Iran has been able to do to the Navy, I’m sure many Russians are asking themselves what are we doing here. If you listen to John Helmer it seems like this may even be a real political problem for Putin, who just 2 years ago had like 80% approval ratings. And Fiorella Isabel, who also lives in Russia like Helmer, has been making very legitimate points lately that the alternative media seems to be wedded to this idea that Russia is fighting the same idealogical battle against the Empire that Iran is.
Instead, it seems like the US still has quite a bit of leverage over Russia and they are looking to make a deal. Medhurst’s theory at least for me provides a potential reason for Russia’s equivocations.
The Empire really is much more evil that most people seem to be able to comprehend. Most of have been raised on constant propaganda that the US is generally a force for good.
Good question that many expert analysts have differing opinions on for years now: Ritter, Diesen,Wilkerson, Crooke, Johnson, Martyanov, Sleboda and then we have folks like Doctorow, and Helmer who are more pessimistic about Russia’s internal political situation and willingness to retaliate against flagrant US/UK-backed attacks.
Is there corruption going on in Russian politics? How much do certain elements of the Russian oligarchy want to cooperate with the US in order to further their own narrow interests?Is Putin too cautious? Russia certainly has the ability to retaliate and even severely punish the US/UK/EU, so why don’t they?
Given the lack of diplomacy between the US and Russia, many of the above analysts say the danger of escalation to nuclear war is high. Does Russia want to risk nuclear confrontation with a reckless, lawless, declining hegemon? How far will the US and vassals go to provoke Russia? How much will Russia take? We can only have informed speculation on that.
I would say this is much more dangerous than many realize. Russia has more sophisticated and effective weaponry, simply put: the US would have only one rung left on the “escalation ladder” to use nuclear weapons.
US and Iranian officials are in direct talks with Pakistan in Islamabad on bringing an end to conflict in the Middle East – BBC
To be clear, the claim is that US and Iranian negotiators are talking face to face.
Earlier, we mentioned how significant the day has been so far.
But now that sources have told us face-to-face trilateral talks are taking place, that’s a historic event that Pakistan has mediated.
These are the highest level face-to-face talks between the US and Iran since the Islamic revolution in 1979.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
is there an over-under on Polymarket about how many s-bombs and f-bombs JD is going to drop today?
I want to say , “I bet there is”, but I demure, and say instead,
“I imagine so…”
As of right now, Iranian media is reporting that:
a) Face-to-face talks have taken place.
b) Talks between “expert working groups” are taking place.
c) The last post on Pars Today says that “written texts” are being exchanged on some questions, i.e. we’re down to legal language.
I am not at all optimistic on the ultimate outcome of the process, not unless the Iranians suddenly decide to surrender their core aims. At the same time, it is rather amusing to watch and read all the prior predictions of the talks not even happening due to US perfidy (and the US is perfidious), and yet, here we are.
But remember, the Russians in Istambul last year also “had talks” and “exchanged texts”. And where are we now, negotiations-wise? Nowhere. So I fully believe the Iranians will observe the forms of the process, if nothing else, to demonstrate that unlike the US, Iran is “serious”. But unless one side or the other capitulates, meh? And then the only question is how quickly the shooting starts again.
Don’t forget that right now Iran hold the high card – Hormuz being closed. They can take their time and look serious knowing that the more time passes, the more dire the economic fallout becomes for the US.
Why rush when you enemies are performing self-harm?
The mere fact of even holding talks signals a walking back of some of the original objectives. Decolonizing the middle East now seems off the table unless USrael keep escalating and they seem to have abandoned the idea of ensuring that they are never attacked again, unless they are willing to negotiate the tolling of the strait of Hormuz away for sweet promises, and perhaps especially then.
Splitting the tolls with Oman is also strange because it upends the reparations argument. What would Oman be getting reparations for?
Will Boris Johnson show up to blow away any agreements?
While the Saudi’s aren’t a neutral party to the conflict, this post contains an interesting point about the procedures that would be involved in releasing assets and more background:
https://houseofsaud.com/iran-6-billion-asset-claim-islamabad-talks/
“Saudis” not possessive….
TAMALE (Trump Always Makes Another Lame Excuse) is on the menu.
Good one! Tacos, Tamales… the Big Enchilada – all these Mexican food references are making me hungry. For anyone who has had genuine, home-made tacos (with hand-made maize/corn tortillas) hand-made tamales, enchiladas etc. you know what I’m talking about. (Pre-made supermarket taco shells, taco kits, and some seasoned ground beef are not real tacos.)
don’t forget TOFU! Trump Only Effs Up!
TOSTADA (Trump Offers Same Tired Awful Daily Arguments)
Yes!, and now tofu tacos. (vegan, gluten free)
Bloomberg reporting Iranian state TV says another round of talks set for tonight…
“This is the final effort to see whether the Islamabad talks mediated by Pakistan can be effective or bring the views of the US and Iranian delegations closer together or not”
That reads like it’s doubtful put posturing is thick on the ground today
Reagarding the alleged crossing of the Strait of Hormuz (NYT), update about 40 minutes ago, or 1:40 PM EST:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/11/world/iran-war-trump-talks-pakistan/9747660c-66fa-563f-8006-4377235dd048?smid=url-share
U.S. Central Command said two U.S. warships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday for the first time since Iran closed the waterway to shipping traffic last month. The two ships, the U.S.S. Frank E. Peterson and U.S.S. Michael Murphy, entered the Persian Gulf in advance of a mission to locate and clear any naval mines that Iran may have laid in the waters, Central Command said in a statement on Saturday. Iran denied the U.S. warships had passed through the strait, calling the claims “unrealistic,” the Iranian state broadcaster reported.
The U.S. statement said that more U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the operation in the coming days.
Al Mayadeen reporting US destroyer tried to cross but turned around after a threat to attack it- https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-destroyer-forced-to-withdraw-from-hormuz-after-iranian-wa
Times of India, too: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/blow-up-in-30-mins-irans-shock-countdown-forces-us-destroyer-to-abort-entry-in-hormuz-report/videoshow/130196696.cms
“Tehran reportedly told mediators that any U.S. vessel entering the strait would be targeted within 30 minutes, linking the move to ongoing peace talks in Islamabad.”
More NYT garbage.
I’ve seen multiple reports that Iran, via the negotiators in Pakistan, told the US they had 30 minutes to remove their vessels from the area or they would be fired on.
The US withdrew the warships.
Sounds more likely than the drivel the NYT now puts in print.
Yup. And there’s more of the same from CBS, Fortune, NY Post and Times of Israel.
Agenda and allegience-free…
Long, but worth a read in the current situation.
One advantage of the RMS (remote minehunting system} is that it can conduct bottom mapping of strategic areas to aid in future operations. If a DDG were tasked to conduct RMS operations in vital areas during peacetime, the ability to conduct change-detect operations during a crisis would enable the task force to transit an area without having to clear mines (understanding that there is still some risk due to undetectable mines).
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2009/june/mine-warfares-best-defense
See Ben Panga’s comment above, starting “Map showing they went all the way through, then (seemingly) got turned back and returned to the Arabian sea.”
It appears one, maybe two, US military vessels did transit the Strait, but then turned round and went back, Iranian warnings presumably being a factor in their decision to do so.
I wonder if they released some underwater drones to surveil the waterway and perform any minesweeping duties if required
I wonder if these are the LCS fitted with the new, never been battle tested, mine sweeping systems?
DDGs with AN/WLD-1 remote minehunting system.
This story really bothers me. They were both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers so you are talking about over 700 men and women here. Why put their lives at risk and potentially restart this war? I think that this was a stunt on Trump’s behalf for several reasons. Maybe that New York Times article about Iranians mines bothered him so now he will claim that his destroyers checked and that there are no mines so tankers don’t have to use the designated Iranian safety lanes. You’re welcome. It was also a Freedom of Navigation stunt as well to show that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to all traffic so the world can thank him here too. All those tankers are now free to go and don’t have to pay any tolls. It was also to spite the Iranians as a petty act of defiance but the Iranians refused to take the bait. It was also to demonstrate that the US Navy can go anywhere it like and nobody can stop them. But I am sure that no countries, shipping agents, insurers, the Gulf State countries or anybody else were fooled. Trump put those several hundred people’s lives at risk just to do a publicity stunt to make himself look good.
The ships are not cannon fodder, these ships are the ships you would want to send on this mission:
USS Michael Murphy DDG-112 (15 years old)
USS Frank E Peterson Jr DDG-121 (6 years old)
both probably built with AN/WLD-1 remote minehunting system (RMS), as noted by ThirtyOne, which is a mine finder and not a mine sweeper
discussion: AN/WLD-1 RMS was before the Littoral Combat Ships, so this was an attempt to make Arleigh Burke class destroyers into SwissArmyKnife do-it-all-boats before the LCS were invented.
USS Frank E Peterson Jr DDG-121 is also Integrated Air and Missile Defense Commander, intended to protect the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier, but certainly needed if the US wants to protect any kind of ships from air/missile/drone attack.
The two ships were attacked by Ansar Allah, so they have taken fire, so the crews know how to respond to incoming fire.
So the possibilities are:
1 as stated by the US, mine mapping operation, but not mine countermeasures (MCM) / minesweeping
2 attempt to map radar/missile/drone sites, since Iran probably wouldn’t attack them during a cease fire, so that is when you run a sortie to see what the enemy turns on and shows their position, and listen to communications (which did work if that was the goal)
3 attempt to trick Iran into firing on a ship, so the US can say “see we told you we can’t trust brown people!”
4 something else, like covering for one or two submarines (or other submersibles) going into the Persian Gulf
4 discussion: since there are virtually no ships transiting into the Gulf, a sonar listening buoy could hear a submarine even when “running silent”. So the destroyers turning around may be irrelevant, if the goal was to make enough noise for a submarine with special forces aboard to sneak into the Gulf and land special forces somewhere (a popular movie plot, for which special forces actually drill and practice).
We know that the Trump guy is all about special forces….
Worse yet, ‘all of the above’. Literally the country no one should ever entertain negotiations with.
‘2 attempt to map radar/missile/drone sites’
I wondered if that was why the ships were allowed to transit the Strait before being given a thirty minute warning. Iran deliberately didn’t activate anything on the banks of the Strait itself. Russia and/or China would have tipped them off about the enemy warships’ locations, so no need for radar.
Iranian sources are saying IRGC send a drone to check “the american vessel” at which point the vessel turned back. Iranians keep referring to only a single US ship.
I don’t know what to make of the ship/ships thing.
Report: US-Iran talks hit stalemate over Strait of Hormuz
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rytxtedhwl
The two naval ships entering the SOH seems to me as an intelligence operation, a sort of initial probe. I’m not sure what they were looking for but it kind of indicates active planning for some sort of future operation.
Strikes me as more of a lack of intelligence operation. Also occurs to me that giving them 30 minutes to turn those things around was showing some serious restraint.
Not sure I agree with this view–warplanes from countries “test” each other’s systems all the time. I think this is simply the beginning of a “testing” phase, possibly to see how Iran communicates, test their radar, reaction times, etc.
I could be way off on this, but this is how I would interpret it. I mean, the US didn’t declare a freedom of navigation or anything. If anything, it seems that the US has now conceded the strait to Iran
Thinking about it, you may be right. Use the ceasefire to force Iran into a situation where they can’t immediately sink carriers on a probing mission of some kind, without losing some face (attacking suddenly, in the middle of negotiations). Another neat trick exclusively for those who are bad faith actors.
My attempt at a high level summary of Newbury’s argument that we are on a baked in path to catastrophic deflation and collapse of the current world order.
• The global economy is built on Eurodollar debt, and the world requires a constant inflow of dollars to service it (historically provided via the US trade deficit).
• US Tariffs reduce the net flow of dollars into the global system, which is in effect a margin call on the non-US pledged collateral supporting the Eurodollar debt.
• The margin call forces foreign nations and firms to liquidate collateral (real assets) either to service debt or flee to safety. The US stock market rally is the result of this massive release of liquidity flowing into the US equity markets. Expressed in thermodynamic terms, the heat driving the US rally is the energy released by the decomposition of the European and Asian industrial base.
• On top of this, the Hormuz supply disruption greatly accelerates the foreign industrial base decomposition by creating a severe biophysical energy shock. For example, European industry is choking on a $74 diesel crack spread (the spread between crude oil and its refined products); Western Australia is rationing fuel to keep its mines alive; and Japan’s base collateral, its access to the energy required to run its industrial machine, is being rapidly destroyed.
• The stock market increases are purely a financial phenomenon. The real physical economy is being systematically starved of capital.
• In terms of physics, the US political economy is akin to an entity with massive inertial mass experiencing rising entropic drag requiring immense, accelerating input of maintenance power.
• The US has created the maintenance power via fiat currency (exchanging IOUs for real resources). But the easy resources are gone and the cost of maintenance is skyrocketing.
• As a result, the US is drawing in every available unit of exergy (in thermodynamics, available energy) in the form of capital, industrial capacity and resources to keep its own entropic engine running.
• As the US sucks liquidity out of Europe and the Global South it destroys the mechanism of exchange that allows those regions to function, leaving a liquidity desert and the collapse of a complex adaptive system into a lower energy state.
The three posts in chronological order:
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-dollar-vacuum-why-multipolarity
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-brittle-fracture-why-the-hormuz
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-infinity-asymptote-what-the-all
“Even if a deal is struck, economists predict Brits’ bills will stay high for at least six months. The Telegraph’s Tony Diver reports that Whitehall officials have already war-gamed scenarios in which mass protests break out across the country in response to high prices for goods or shortages of fuel and other essentials.”
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/just-another-generational-crisis/#:~:text=Even%20if%20a,and%20other%20essentials.
Exclusive: US Team Raises Excessive Demands as Talks Enter Text Exchange Stage
April, 11, 2026 – 21:46
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The US team of negotiators has made excessive demands as the negotiating teams in Islamabad entered the text exchange stage, according to Tasnim’s correspondent in Islamabad.
“While after in-person expert talks between the Iranian and American delegations in Islamabad, the two sides had advanced to the text exchange stage to reach a common framework for negotiations, the American delegation has hindered the progress of the process by its recurring excessive demands,” Tasnim correspondent in Islamabad reported……
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/11/3563440/exclusive-us-team-raises-excessive-demands-as-talks-enter-text-exchange-stage
Trump Warns Against Price Gouging by ‘Fertilizer Monopoly’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-11/trump-warns-against-price-gouging-by-fertilizer-monopoly
For Trump and Hegseth, the Iran war is a game | Judith Levine
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/11/trump-hegseth-iran-war
Damning Intel Leak Blows Up Pentagon Pete’s ‘Depleted and Decimated’ Claim
https://www.thedailybeast.com/damning-intel-leak-blows-up-pentagon-petes-depleted-and-decimated-claim/
Iranian Source: US Raising Excessive Demands During Islamabad Talks
https://farsnews.ir/Qaysar/
US-Iran talks on Strait of Hormuz reach ‘deadlock’ – FT
https://unn.ua/en/news/us-iran-talks-on-strait-of-hormuz-reach-deadlock-ft
US to demand freeing of American detainees in Iran as part of Islamabad negotiations – report
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892625
US military ‘setting conditions’ to clear mines from Strait of Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-forces-are-clearing-strait-hormuz-2026-04-11/
at the conclusion of quite a long day, i’ll just say that the genius that brings you the LEGO videos also brings you the ‘oh shit, we can’t find our mines! – someone tell the NY Times!’ US outmaneuvered on every flank, and they know it, and it’s up to Iran to determine if they should provide an offramp for the US, if US adherence to stern certainties are deemed any degree of authenticity. a high-bar is held: who on earth would trust the US?
no one, still, can control Israel. they must be severely defanged or removed from the region. part of the potential, unlikely highbar and offramp.
Fat chance on the last point. Things will get Biblical, plenty of playahs.
Wonder what all Ploymarket has on this macabre subject.
> [Israel] must be severely defanged or removed from the region
Prof Mearsheimer on Glenn Diesen said he was concerned Israel may now be more likely to use nukes against Iran at some point because they’ve now seen that conventional weapons, even with U.S. involvement, are not sufficient. Further, they’ve shown no hesitation in employing inhumane means to achieve their objectives.
Hard to disagree with his conclusion. Although, natural, I hope he’s wrong.
Andrei Martyanov who seems to be well-plugged into the Russian military-govt complex (him having been a Soviet naval officer), says that Putin told the Israelis point blank, if you nuke Iran, Russia will nuke you.
Of course the crazy Israelis not might care about that, who knows? Maybe they think having a nuclear exchange will bring about the second temple and the coming of YAWEH to save all the chosen people or some such crazy shit. I have no idea. But hopefully both the Russian message to Israel was real and the Israelis aren’t all suicidal death cultists.
Ex-CIA director: ‘25th amendment was written with Donald Trump in mind’
https://www.newsweek.com/john-brennan-25th-amendment-trump-iran-11815906
Fetterman: ‘Insane’ for Democrats to view Israel negatively
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5825646-fetterman-democrats-israel/
Tucker Carlson calls Trump a ‘slave’ who ‘can’t make his own decisions’ in latest escalation of their feud
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tucker-carlson-trump-slave-feud-b2955888.html
Trump and Netanyahu: Two Madmen Playing God; When deranged leaders invoke divine catastrophe as a political instrument, it is not only their enemies who are consumed. Unless they are stopped, we will all be victims of these two psychopaths.
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/netanyahu-trump-psychopaths-war-criminals
Big Pharma Is Turning to China for the Newest Drug Ideas
https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/pfizer-biotech-china-glubio-molecular-glue-dd938650
U.S. Intelligence Shows China Taking a More Active Role in Iran War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/us/politics/china-iran-war-missiles-supplies.html
The Trump-Iran truce feels priced in, and that’s the problem
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-signals-will-make-or-break-the-iran-cease-fire-and-oil-prices-8f415515
A man broke into Shannon Airport in Ireland today, climbed onto the wing of a parked US Air Force C-130 Hercules and damaged the fuselage, taking the aircraft out of service.
https://www.thejournal.ie/us-aircraft-shannon-attacked-7009833-Apr2026/
‘Big Pharma Is Turning to China for the Newest Drug Ideas’
Is that because Trump has gutted medical research and development in the US so Big Pharma can no longer get freebies from the feds?
A man broke into Shannon Airport in Ireland today, climbed onto the wing of a parked US Air Force C-130 Hercules and damaged the fuselage, taking the aircraft out of service.
One source said that the damage done to the aircraft was extensive.
Now the Irish government is left is left in the position of explaining how they are not a part of this war – while they let US military aircraft use their country. They had better kiss that Blarney stone.
Anti-war Protest in Ireland Escalates to Direct Action
“A protester breached the airside perimeter at Shannon Airport in Ireland today, climbed onto the wing of a parked US Air Force C-130 Hercules and damaged the fuselage with what is believed to be an axe, taking the aircraft out of service.” [Video included]
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/181680
The hell? Didn’t Ireland call themselves neutral? What’s a fucking C-130 doing on their soil?
IRIB analysis on Iran’s unprecedented negotiating position:
* Contrary to decades of American practice, Iran has designed the negotiating table itself
* Tehran explicitly blocked figures like Kushner and others with bad track records from the US delegation
* American media, citing John Bolton, note the US accepted Iran’s preconditions and sent different negotiators
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/181679
NEW: High-ranking IRGC delegation landed in Islamabad moments ago
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30868#
No one has been added to the Iranian negotiation team in Pakistan — Fars News
https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/21066#
Via Telegram, Intel Slava quoting Tasnim News – Extending was Pakistan’s request, they did not agree, but Pakistan said, “Let’s also give each other another chance.”
The negotiations are intended to fail.
Trump will use the failure to blame-shift…
Trump has previously used the stratagem to make himself look good
“See ! I Tried !” is the result he expects he can claim from the expected failure…
Vance says it’s Iran’s fault for not surrendering.
Iran War Live Updates: U.S. And Iran Fail to Agree on Peace Deal After 21 Hours of Talks, Vance Says – NYT
Vice President JD Vance said the Iranian delegation had not accepted American terms for ending the war after a marathon, face-to-face session in Pakistan.
…
“They have chosen not to accept our terms,” Mr. Vance said
EXCLUSIVE: House have enough votes to impeach Trump regardless of ceasefire outcome
https://politico.forum/house-have-enough-votes-to-impeach-trump-regardless-of-ceasefire-outcome/
IDF tells Knesset panel new Iranian regime even more extreme
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-tells-knesset-panel-new-iranian-regime-even-more-extreme/
Trump wants to cover a White House office building with ‘magic paint.’ Experts advise against it
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/11/politics/eisenhower-executive-office-building-paint-trump
‘The plan is working’: Trump’s trade chief brushes off economic fears in Rust Belt tour
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/11/jamieson-greer-tariffs-manufacturing-economy-00867999
Trump says US forces are ‘clearing’ Strait of Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-forces-are-clearing-strait-hormuz-2026-04-11/
U.S.-Iran peace summit in Pakistan concludes with no deal, talks to continue on Sunday
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/11/us-iran-talks-set-to-begin-in-islamabad-after-delegations-arrive.html
How Trump’s SAVE America Act could make it harder for married women to vote
https://utahnewsdispatch.com/2026/04/09/repub/how-trumps-save-america-act-could-make-it-harder-for-married-women-to-vote/
Trump says US forces are ‘clearing’ Strait of Hormuz
It doesn’t appear the Strait is actually being cleared yet.
WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) – The U.S. military said on Saturday that it had started “setting conditions” for clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with two U.S. warships passing through the key waterway.
In a post on X, the U.S. Central Command said the USS Frank Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transited the Strait of Hormuz “as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”
The one or two enemy vessels that transited the Strait turned round and went back after being given a thirty minute warning, which CENTCOM omits mention of. If anyone has set conditions, it’s Iran.
The Cradle, via Telegram
Washington Post article openly calls for assassination of Iranian negotiators.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei condemned a Washington Post article by Marc Thiessen calling for the assassination of Iranian negotiators if talks fail, expressing outrage that such rhetoric is being openly advanced in US political and media circles.
He said the language amounts to incitement to violence and state terrorism, and questioned how Washington can accuse Iran of bad faith while such threats are publicly normalized.
Picture the Seinfeld meme: Newman!!!
Bezos!!!
Indians line up for these flatbreads. But now gas is running short. (NBC News)
Regarding the (actual or theoretical) mines, given Iran’s expertise in remote warfare I highly doubt that these would be the dumb WW2 style mines, if indeed any have been placed. I’d expect they all have telemetry of some form to allow operators to connect to them, and maybe even some limited propulsion capability, more like a marine equivalent of the loitering drone.
If the operation to place them was centrally managed then I have no doubt Iran knows where they all are, and can probably get real time updates. If there has been loss of information or communication on the human front, then there could be ‘orphans’ out there.
Iranian response:
“Mines? No, they’re yours” lol
Islamabad talks are a ’round of demands,’ not dialogue: Gharibabadi
Netanyahu vows escalation in Lebanon, sets Hezbollah disarmament as condition for talks
“Netanyahu claimed that Iran is “no longer what it used to be,” alleging it faces increasing internal difficulties and is “struggling to survive.””
I believe that psychologists label this phenomenon as “projection”
He’s probably right. The fact that Iran went to Pakistan for talks after repeatedly claiming they are done talking is a clear signal that they have been degraded.
Reality will soon beg to differ
no dice
Trump doesn’t have the leverage that he thinks he does, it seems. Ongoing closure of the strait ensures the complete, abject failure of Trump’s presidency. A buffoon, bloviating like an idiot, without worry or care.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/11/world/iran-war-trump-talks-pakistan/heres-the-latest?smid=url-share
Some Fars Telegram posts from last hour:
1. Iran-US talks end
🔹Fars correspondent sent to Pakistan: Iran did not accept America’s ambitious conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, peaceful nuclear energy, and several other issues.
🔹A source close to the negotiating team told Fars: “The Americans demanded through negotiations everything they could not obtain through war.”
🔹The Iran-US talks lasted a total of about 21 hours
2. A source close to the negotiating team told Fars correspondent in Pakistan: The American team was looking for an excuse to leave the negotiating table.
🔹It seems that the Americans needed the negotiation for their lost face in the international arena and were unwilling to lower their expectations despite the defeat and stalemate in the war with Iran.
🔹The negotiating team, as representatives of the people, protected the achievements of the Maidan.
🔹Iran has no plans for the next round of talks.
—-
Together with the Vance statements, this gives us about we expected: they are far too far apart for agreement. America flouncing off is a hollow tactic.
The Strait stays closed. Iran stays steadfast. They don’t need to do anything.
Trump will do what? Return to the kinetic, or push for further negotiation? It was after all him who begged for the ceasefire.
I expect we will be back to “a civilisation might soon die” posts pretty soon. He still can’t do shit though, unless he does massively escalate and even that won’t fix his problem. Nothing has changed, despite the naval coitus interruptus in the Strait earlier.
Still no obvious way for him to avoid a crown-of-mash.
Israelis are presumably chomping at the bit to murder more civilians in Lebanon.
Quote below is from Vance’s statement. If this is the sticking point, it seems eminently solvable. Big if, though as I suspect it’s just Vance fixating on the least controversial war aim.
At some point America is gonna have to decide if it wants to deal or not. This “please talk to us” & “here are unrealistic demands” tactic is leading nowhere that benefis them. Quite the opposite!
“But the simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” Vance tells reporters. “That is the core goal of the president of the United States. And that’s what we’ve tried to achieve through these negotiations.”
Vance knows that if he makes a deal that Lindsey Graham is not happy with, then he will be hung out to dry and there goes his hopes of being made President in ’28. Better that the war restarts and the great recession hits than his political career suffers.
Yes, we are too quick to dismiss the personal costs of wars of aggression.
Worse, the american people might be robbed of a president who looks like a pilsbury doughboy dropped face first into a hoover bag.
From all reports it was much more than that:
No ceasefire in Lebanon.
No enriched Uranium.
Cede control of the Strait of Hormuz.
This is not solvable.
They should have thrown in another:
The ayatollah must surrender before the knesset wearing a bikini
They could always row back on this one to appear conciliatory.
Arnaud Bertrand reposted
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
JD Vance: “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the US. So, we go back to the US having not come to an agreement … they have chosen not to accept our terms”
Its like watching game theory fold endlessly on itself ….. “they have chosen” – “not to accept” – ***our[tm] terms*** ….
“They forced us to keep on killing them and bombing their schools & medical facilities. We had no choice in the matter.”
Yet in a month-ish Iran has totally reduced the US/Israel military system architecture/doctrine to the rubbish bin …
Do avail yourself to one of the bunnings fkwit buckets I linked to in links ….
Vance is leaving. Sounds like the war will be resuming.
JD Vance Says US Delegation Leaving Pakistan After Failing to Reach Deal With Iran
I thought the nuclear capability was decimated in the 12-day war, so his statements are nonsensical.
The nuclear facilities were decimated, so 9/10ths remain.
Ouch!
It’s the 0% of Iranian military capability remaining that is causing so much trouble.
Trump and Vance fear they might quickly multiply that by 100 and be back where they were.
The most destructive missile debris ever!!
As they have been decimated every day of the war, they are down to about 1% now.
Using this metric, xeno’s paradox means they will never get to 0, so this is a genuine forever war.
The main reason i believe these talks (which have been said to be continued) will fail is reputational. So far the US is in not position to impose conditions and no one wants to admit it starting with Trump. Trump may be sensible to market woes but his sensitivity to reputational ones might be even higher.
a fun read: Netanyahu’s starting to look like a man who picked a fight and lost | The Times
Quote:
Archived version https://archive.ph/n4Akz
The problem for Netanyahoo is the ceasefire. The problem for Trump is Hormuz traffic. Besides, they probably have little ordnance left to fight Iran. Time does not stop and goes against both. Tic tac tic tac.
Netanyahoo said that Spain “would lament” their diplomatic stance. I just hope this individual gets what he merits.
I stopped at my local tavern where they are showing the UFC 327 in Miami, Florida. Featured on screen was one President Donald Trump enjoying himself while his supporter Joe Rogan commentated on the festivities. I assume that Trump was not retreating to a SCIF to personally oversee the flailing negotiations with Iran.
My fellow patrons discussed a parlay bet one made based on a fighter raising a middle finger in an interview.
The contrast between the bread & circuses and the coming economic pain is depressing.
Trump just “truthed” the following:
The Trump card the president holds if Iran won’t bend: a naval blockade: justthenews.com/government/sec
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116389798405349626
We’ll see how that goes
A naval blockade simply means stealing any oil tankers leaving Iran for countries like China, Pakistan, etc. and maybe diverting it for delivery to the US of A. What could possibly go wrong?
You mean like aircraft carriers and huge and expensive “destroyers” like Arleigh Burke class (as large as WW2 treaty cruisers, which were supposed to be mini battleships) make for lousy commerce protection?
Its a great time to be in the Navy.
BTW, it’s kinda late at night for the guy, ain’t it?
Iran can handle much more economic pain than the global economy at this point. This is nuts and hopeless. The market is huffing hopium, and the white house is huffing copium. Surely they’re both gonna run out soon?
(At least we’re not doing more “a civilisation is going to die” stuff but maybe you can cry wolf like that only once? who knows.)
So the solution to blocked Persian Gulf is to block it even more? Perfect timing for Yemen to join the party in the Red Sea.