As the ceasefire POTUS Trump unilaterally declared earlier this week continues, much of the discussion of the Iran War centered on whether the US or Iran is better positioned to outlast their opponent.
Bluster From the Oval Office
Trump opened the day Wednesday talking trash on Truth Social about ordering the US Navy to “shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be…that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. …Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now.”
As I covered yesterday, even CBS News is reporting that “roughly 60% of (Iran’s) naval arm” is still extant.
I should also mention that the US decommissioned most of its minesweepers in the region last year and the task is now delegated to the Littoral Combat Ship (aka “The Little Crappy Ship”) which is largely unsuitable for the task.
Oh, and yea, the US Navy has zero presence in the Strait of Hormuz and hasn’t since a pair of destroyers ventured there on the 11th and quickly skedaddled under threat of Iranian fire.
At a press event, Trump admitted the Iranians were prepared to open the Strait, until he imposed his counter-blockade:
BREAKING: TRUMP ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ:
"They came to us and they said, 'We will agree to open the strait.' And all my people were happy, except me. I said, 'Wait a minute, if we open the strait, that means they're gonna make $500 million a day.' I don't want them to make $500… pic.twitter.com/BU2ZQk5sLh
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) April 23, 2026
CNBC reports on activity in the Strait on Thursday:
U.S. forces on Thursday intercepted a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean that was carrying oil from Iran, the Pentagon said in a social media post. The U.S. recently blocked the Iranian tankers M/V Hero II, M/V Hedy and M/V Dorena, U.S. Central Command said Wednesday.
Iran, meanwhile, claimed Wednesday to have seized two cargo ships that attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz “without authorization,” according to the state news agency Tasnim.
Trump also posted about extending the “ceasefire” between Lebanon and Israel for three weeks. As noted previously in this space, Lebanon and Israel have never really been firing on each other (although Israel savagely bombed Beirut earlier this month) It is Hezbollah alone that is resisting Israel’s invasion.
Trump’s post gives away the game saying “The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah.”
I’ll have more on Lebanon below, but let’s get to the main point of this post.
Time Is On Whose Side and Who’s Divided?
But, Trump’s most significant post of the day had to do with the question of whose side time is on in the battle of dueling blockades:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 24, 2026
Supporting Trump’s claim that time is NOT on Iran’s side is this thread about oil storage on Kharg Islan (HT Simplicius):
My earlier analysis estimated ~13 days before Kharg Island onshore storage hits capacity. @Tankertrackers confirms Iran has pulled NASHA (9079107), a 30yo VLCC, out of retirement to handle overflow.
~13-day figure was based on ~13M barrels spare capacity at Kharg ÷ ~1.0–1.1M… https://t.co/7VgpHxJ3CL
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 24, 2026
Trump also claimed that Iranian leadership is divided in a phone interview with MSNow:
“They’re all messed up. They have no idea who their leader is. You know, we took out, really, three levels of leaders. And everybody that was even close behind him,” he said, referring to the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “So they have a hard time figuring out who the hell can speak for the country. They just don’t know.”
Trump is building on a western MSM narrative that the Economist and the Wall St. Journal kicked off last week.
CNN pushed back on that narrative with some expert quotes (archived):
“I think that’s a serious misreading of the Iranian leadership,” Mehrat Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University Qatar, told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “The leadership has been quite cohesive, and we’ve seen this in the conduct of the war and the negotiation.”
…
“Different factions of Iranian leadership are more aligned now than before the war,” Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told CNN. “Because this is a much smaller circle … this circle is more united about the strategy they use in the war” compared to previous restrictions under Ali Khamenei.
Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor of west Asian studies at the University of Tehran, denies there are any fractures in Iran’s leadership.
“The Iranian political system is very institutionalised. Name another system whose top echelon is assassinated and is capable of continuing and also waging a retaliatory war effort against two big foes. I do not see any historical parallel to this,” Ahmadian said.
He added: “For every institution in Iran there is a parallel institution and that makes it easier to withstand shocks.”
And Newsweek describes a unified messaging effort from Iranian leadership:
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote that the claims of divisions were false, declaring that the country’s leadership and population were aligned in purpose.
“In Iran there are no ‘hardliners’ or ‘moderates,’” Pezeshkian posted. “We are all Iranians and revolutionaries. With ironclad unity of nation and state and obedience to the Supreme Leader, we will make the aggressor regret.”
His message echoed nearly identical language used earlier by Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who described the country as bound together by “iron unity” and “complete obedience” to the supreme leader.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added to the pushback, writing: “The failure of Israel’s terrorist killings is reflected in how Iran’s state institutions continue to act with unity, purpose, and discipline. The battlefield and diplomacy are fully coordinated fronts in the same war. Iranians are all united, more than ever before.”
Taken together, the statements marked a rare, synchronized messaging effort from Iran’s top civilian and diplomatic leadership, appearing to directly counter Trump’s claim that Tehran was internally fractured.
As for whose side time is on, here’s Dr. Michael Hudson:
Prof. Michael Hudson: The #1 US export for 5 months straight is gold. Not AI, not aircraft. Gold to Switzerland, Hong Kong, China. In 1971 Nixon shut the gold window to stop it. Now America can't — it IS the one selling. The empire is liquidating itself. America's broke. pic.twitter.com/koaOtZYvXP
— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) April 23, 2026
The Economist warns that “Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster” (archived):
Fifty days into the Iran war the world has lost 550m barrels of Gulf crude—nearly 2% of last year’s global output. Every month Hormuz stays closed, the world misses out on 7m tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), worth 2% of its annual supply. Yet in Western countries, which host the largest futures markets, pain remains limited. Petrol is a bit pricier, but most households can still afford to drive. Trucks keep trucking. Planes continue to fly. Fuel stocks remain close to pre-war levels.
This comforting picture is deeply misleading. By April 20th the last few oil tankers to cross Hormuz before the war began reached their destinations, in Malaysia and California. There is no buffer left to protect the world from the supply shock, at a time of the year when demand from holiday drivers starts to pick up.
To gauge how close the world is to energy catastrophe, The Economist has gathered a dashboard of indicators. It suggests that grave damage has already been done. Worse, without a reopening costs could soar, triggering events that cause the fuel system to seize up. A reopening of the strait now would—just—avoid a complete disaster. But some additional pain is already inevitable.
Three factors are pushing the world towards the cliff edge. Oil cargoes available to buy are drying up. Refineries are slashing output of fuel. And demand remains artificially high, especially in Europe. Something big must give somewhere large for energy markets to balance.
This confirms the argument Gideon Rachman made ten days ago for FT.com:
The Iranians believe that time is on their side in this confrontation and they are probably right. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the more the economic and political pressure on the US and its allies will mount. As a result, Iran’s negotiating hand is likely to be stronger — if and when peace talks resume.
The loss of some 20 per cent of the world’s energy supplies has already been called the “greatest global energy security threat in history” by Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency. He has warned that today’s crisis could dwarf the combined effects of the oil shocks of the 1970s — which caused several years of inflation, recessions and fuel rationing.
The economic impacts of the current war were cushioned for a while because a lot of oil and gas from the Gulf was already at sea when the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. But the effects of the strait’s closure — and of Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure — are now really kicking in.
A rise in the price of petrol at the pump is just the beginning. A shortage of jet fuel will hit air travel, which will damage tourism just ahead of the crucial summer season in Europe. A lack of helium — much of which is produced in Qatar — could stop the production of semiconductors. Food production will be damaged by fertiliser shortages which will lead to further inflation. The Asian Development Bank has recently forecast that the energy crisis could reduce growth by more than 1 percentage point this year in developing Asia.
Trump clearly hopes that the economic pressure exerted on Iran through the blockade will force the Islamic republic to back down quickly. But the Iranian regime is resourceful, ruthless and fighting for its life. Iran also has a cushion of income generated by its recent oil sales at inflated prices and can generate some revenue through gas exports by pipeline.
Oh and aluminum supplies are wrecked, per Reuters:
“The scale of the supply shock we’re seeing in the aluminium market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era,” Nick Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria, said on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.
“We are already in a ‘black swan’ event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale,” he told Reuters.
Concerns about supplies due to disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran fuelled a rally on the London Metal Exchange, pushing aluminium prices to a four-year high at $3,672 a ton on April 16.
Ian Welsh also argues that time is on Iran’s side:
Let’s keep this simple: every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed, more damage is done to the world economy. The US is not immune to this as it needs ammonia and helium: helium is used to make chips (which the US mostly does not make but does consume) and ammonia is vital for fertilizer…
Iran doesn’t actually need much from the rest of the world: they have enough oil, obviously, and they can feed themselves. Plus there are land routes open which are not interdicted. Iran, in less than a week, repaired all of the train bridges and track which had been destroyed by US and Israeli bombing.
So there’s no need to Iran to soak up more hits. Their big weapon is keeping the Strait closed and it is.
The US has resupplied massively, but Iran has used the time to clear the debris around their underground mountain bases, and is read for the next round. Launchers turn out not to be much of an issue: they’re just trucks with hydraulic lifts, after all. If the war does continue, Iran is ready, and they’ve made threats to hit the underwater internet cables around the Gulf, which would knock out internet to essentially the entire Gulf.
Overall I see no reason to change my original analysis, which is that Iran will win this war.
On the plus side, Trump did disavow the use of nuclear weapons:
“Why would I use a nuclear weapon when we’ve totally, in a very conventional way decimated them without it,” he said. “No, I wouldn’t use it. A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody.”
Enough about what Trump (and others are saying), let’s check in on what the US military is doing.
US Military Making Moves, Iranians Doing Deterrance Display
Jeff Bezos’ Washington Post reports on the arrival of new American aircraft carrier group (archived):
The arrival of the USS George H.W. Bush strike group, carrying thousands of additional American personnel and dozens of advanced fighter jets, was announced by U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East. Its path to the region has been closely watched as a potential signal point while Trump seeks progress in the halting peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
The Bush has been traveling off Africa’s eastern coast. It was in the Indian Ocean on Thursday, Central Command said. Another 4,000-plus U.S. troops with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive in the Middle East in coming weeks.
…
The Bush is joining the carriers USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln — adding to the scores of aircraft and warships both are carrying and complementing their air-defense and long-range strike capabilities.
This thread gives some idea of the disposition of US naval forces:
Aircraft carrier USS George H.W Bush (CVN-77) has arrived in the U.S. CENTCOM AOR
This brings the total number of U.S. aircraft carriers deployed in the region to three:
• USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea
• USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea
• USS George H.W. Bush in… https://t.co/y72c6GCKK3 pic.twitter.com/UHhnlrGLp6
— Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) April 23, 2026
This thread on Iran’s mine-laying capabilities is worth a look:
1/ Recent satellite images showing dozens of Iranian fast boats in formation in the Strait of Hormuz illustrate Iran's ability to lay naval mines in the strait. An Iranian export catalogue highlights its many indigenously produced mine types. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/rZffzWu4bd
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) April 23, 2026
Patricia Marins at Global 21 has a ‘big if true’ piece about Iran’s new air defense capabilities, although her sourcing is unclear and anything could be an op:
It’s got a lot of detail about specific improvements Iran has made to its air defense systems, anti-aircraft missiles the 358 and 359, and SHORAD (SHOrt-Range Air Defense Systems) Qaem-118 system, and several others.
She also discusses Russian media reports that they assisted Iran with repairs and replacements for certain systems in return for access to Iranian data about various US missile system.
It concludes:
Iran had serious difficulties keeping its medium- and long-range radars active during the first phase of the war, basically resorting to guerrilla-style operations with its units. Even so, it chose gradual deployment while keeping hundreds of SHORAD systems in protected installations.
…
I believe Iran possesses between 500-700 short-range air defense systems, which, in my view, performed poorly during the 40 days of war due to geographic factors and especially the cement particles, dust, smoke, and dense fog caused by the bombings. This drastically affects infrared and electro-optical sensors. The same conditions also affected coalition drone sensors and LEO satellites that were trying to locate Iranian launchers.This means that the more violent the bombardment, the lower the chances for Iranian air defenses, many of which I imagine are being deployed to positions near the coast.
Iranian air defenses were deployed gradually and shot down 24 American RQ-9 drones and an even larger number of Israeli drones; nevertheless, they had a weak performance against enemy aviation, shooting down only one fighter jet over their territory.
Let’s wait and see whether Iranian air defenses become more efficient.
But no one has questioned the effectiveness of Iran’s offensive missile capabilities and they’ve pushed out a new target list and a warning for Europe:
⚠️ Iran will wreck havoc on Energy infrastructures of the region if its infrastructure is targeted by Israeli regime
Iran's target bank for the next stage of the war…
Qatar »
RasGas: LNG production
Ras Liffan: LNG productionUAE (Eastern Israel) »
Das Island: Oil and LNG… pic.twitter.com/DRf6w7fbkS— 𝐄𝐡𝐬𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐚𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐣𝐚𝐝 (@Safarnejad_IR) April 24, 2026
The hidden part of the post concludes:
This is a message to Europeans. Either your governments stops supporting the genocidal regimes in Israel and US or you will soon go back to use horse and carriage.
Iran will NO LONGER accept to be treated as a pariah state while trying its best to convince the world that it’s a nice/normal actor. The era of wasting time on persuasion of those who cannot be persuaded is Long Gone.
CNN quotes anonymous “US military officials” (archived) about their big plans to target the Strait of Hormuz:
The options, among several sets of target types under consideration, include strikes with a particular focus on “dynamic targeting” of Iran’s capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz, southern Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, the sources said, describing potential attacks against small fast attack boats, minelaying vessels and other asymmetric assets that have helped Tehran effectively shut down those key waterways and use them as leverage over the US.
While the military has targeted Iran’s Navy, much of the first month of bombing was focused on targets away from the strait that would allow the US military to strike further inside Iran itself. The new plans call for a much more concentrated bombing campaign around strategic waterways.
CNN has previously reported that a large percentage of the country’s coastal defense missiles remain intact. Iran also has numerous small boats that could be used as platforms to launch attacks on ships, complicating US efforts to open the strait.
The piece also reviews long-standing US threats to target critical civilian infrastructure in Iran and adds a threat to return to the assassination campaign that started the war in February:
Another option developed by military planners is to target individual Iranian military leaders and other “obstructionists” within the regime who US officials have recently suggested are actively undermining negotiations, one of the sources noted. That includes Ahmad Vahidi, who serves as Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the source said.
This fit with threats coming from Israel, via Turkiye Today:
sraeli Defence Minister Israel Katz declared Thursday that the military is fully prepared to resume war against Iran and is waiting only for Washington’s authorisation, issuing the starkest threat Jerusalem has made since a fragile ceasefire took effect earlier this month.
“Israel is prepared to renew the war against Iran. The Israeli military is ready in defense and offense, and the targets are marked,” Katz said in a video statement released after a security assessment with senior military commanders.
He said Israel was waiting for a green light from the United States “first and foremost to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty” and to “return Iran to the Dark Ages and the Stone Age” by destroying central energy, electricity, and economic infrastructure. “The attack this time will be different and deadly,” he added, promising blows “in the most painful places.”
Regarding attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, Bloomberg analyzes satellite data (archived):
…a study by Conflict Ecology researchers at Oregon State University, which draws on radar imagery, estimates conservatively that at least 7,645 buildings were damaged or destroyed across the country — including 60 education and 12 health facilities — between the beginning of hostilities on Feb. 28 and the start of the truce on April 8.
…
Bloomberg News analyzed land use within damage clusters in Tehran, and found that 2,816 buildings were hit, around 32% of which were linked to the military, 25% to industry, 21% to civilians, while 19% were commercial and 2% governmental.
…
Last week, the Iranian government put total direct and indirect damage from the airstrikes at around $270 billion — not far off the International Monetary Fund’s estimate for the entirety of Iran’s 2026 gross domestic product of $300 billion. The IMF projects that inflation is likely to top 70%, setting a record for a country accustomed to eye-watering price rises.
They’ve got tons of maps and graphics in the piece, here’s one:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 24, 2026
Now let’s look at the Levant.
More Grim News from Lebanon & the West Bank
Haaretz reports on looting by Israeli forces in Lebanon (AI translated from Hebrew):
Fighters testify to looting of civilian property in South Lebanon with the knowledge of commanders.
The phenomenon has expanded, among other things, because some of the military police posts that were placed at exit points from southern Lebanon to prevent looting were removed, and because no posts were placed at other exit points in the first place. The soldiers say that even the commanders who condemn the phenomenon are not taking disciplinary measures to eradicate it: “When there is no punishment, the message is clear.”
What they’re not stealing, they’re blowing up:
Reporting from the last functioning hospital in the deep south of Lebanon.
Despite the ceasefire, we could still hear loud explosions: they came from Israeli troops demolishing nearby villages within the so-called Yellow Line.
Reporting for @TheNationalNews pic.twitter.com/5NX3j6irA5— Nada Maucourant Atallah (@MaucourantNada) April 23, 2026
Hezbollah for their part is focused on Israeli military targets and is employing drone tech pioneered by Russian forces in the Ukraine:
Haaretz: Hezbollah's new drones are immune to jamming, and the new security zone won't stop them
Hezbollah makes extensive use of fiber-optic drones, which it assembles from parts available for purchase or printing at a cost of hundreds of dollars per unit. The army is forced to… pic.twitter.com/I8HmyDxotm
— barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) April 23, 2026
The Israelis are enjoying US support for their latest predations in the West Bank, per the Jerusalem Post:
Israel’s advancement of settlement expansion in the West Bank is being undertaken with full US backing, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday, while speaking about his push for sovereignty over the entire area as the country marks its 78th Independence Day.
…
Smotrich said that all the actions taken in the West Bank had been coordinated with the president, along with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee.Smotrich noted that while Trump had not yet supported the application of Israeli sovereignty over all parts of the West Bank, he hoped that “we will also succeed in that.”
“Even in the previous [US] administration, we did things, but certainly in the current one, we receive great support, full backing,” Smotrich said.
The Trump regime may be all-in on Israeli war crimes, but they do still care about fig leaves.
State Dept. Does Some CYA
The U.S. State Department published its legal defense of the war against Iran on Tuesday.
Rutgers Law professor Adil Haque commented on X, “it’s notable that collective self-defense of Israel comes first, individual self-defense of the United States comes second.”
He elaborated:
The statement concedes that the U.S. and Israel were *not* responding to an actual or imminent armed attack by Iran on Feb. 28.
Instead, they were already in an armed conflict with Iran, and were therefore free to attack Iran, any time, at will.
…the UN Charter prohibits the use of force except in response to an ongoing or imminent armed attack, including after a prior attack has clearly ended.
The point is to *prevent* a resumption of hostilities.
…
As the U.S. concedes, there was no ongoing or imminent armed attack by Iran.So the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran is illegal. Simple as that.
But there may be a glimmer of hope.
Bibi on the Ropes?
Vox.com has a piece on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s re-election chances this year (archived):
…opposition parties are bullish on taking down Netanyahu — and defending democracy is central to their campaign.
…inside Israel, Netanyahu’s opponents are most animated by domestic issues: specifically, a fear that his ultimate aim is to demolish Israel’s remaining democratic institutions and stay in power indefinitely.
This is a reasonable concern. Netanyahu’s government has put cronies in charge of Israel’s security services, demonized the Arab minority, persecuted left-wing activists, and pushed legislation that would put the judiciary under his control. He is currently on trial for corruption — with the most serious charges stemming from a scheme to trade regulatory favors for favorable news coverage from a major Israeli outlet. President Donald Trump is actively pushing Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who holds a more ceremonial position, to grant him a pardon.
…
Polls consistently show that Netanyahu, who has been prime minister for all but one year since 2009, would lose his governing majority if elections were held now — and they’re required to take place no later than October. If these trends hold, then there is a real chance that he will be the next leader in the Trump-aligned far-right international to fall.
Here’s hoping, although no Israeli politician is likely to be much less genocidal or expansionist. The zionist project has its own awful logic after all.
Now let’s look at some other players who are trying to influence the course of the war.
Diplomatic Moves
The AP has a piece on China’s diplomatic role:
After the war began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with counterparts including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. As of mid-April, he had 30 phone calls with various parties about the war, according to a tally of his calls from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Wang also hosted his counterpart from close ally Pakistan, which has been acting as the main mediator in the latest talks, to present a five-point proposal calling for an end to hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Chinese President Xi Jinping in recent days has been uncharacteristically outspoken, warning last week against “the world’s retrogression to the law of the jungle.” This week, he called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group consultancy, said China’s role in the Iran situation is irreplaceable. As Tehran’s biggest oil buyer, its advice carries weight. China is also one of the few countries that has showed sympathy for Iran’s situation at the United Nations, he said.
Further, Iran’s ballistic missile program was built with Chinese technology, and China sells dual-use industrial components that can be used for missile production, according to the U.S. government.
Although China isn’t as immediately influential as Pakistan or key Arab Gulf states in active mediation, it occupies a unique position as the key economic partner for many of those countries.
Egypt tries to help Lebanon, per The National:
Sources in Cairo, as well as analysts, say despite its surprise at Lebanon’s decision to move ahead with direct talks with Israel, Egypt has been quietly advising on red lines that should not be crossed.
Cairo’s approach is to support the Lebanese state against both Israeli pressure and internal factions, while also positioning itself to counter, or pre-empt, any Israeli effort to impose a regional reality aligned with its extremist policies.
“Egypt’s deep interest in Lebanon is not a matter of diplomatic niceties,” said Nael Shama, a political scholar with an interest in Middle East politics.
“It is not just playing a superficial role,” he told The National. “There’s an involvement across state institutions, which signals it has serious and broad interests.” Cairo, he explained, had stepped up to support and engage with Lebanon before, but “not at this level”.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty travelled to Beirut on March 26, his fifth trip to the Lebanese capital in two years. He oversaw the delivery of 1,000 tonnes of aid and reaffirmed Cairo’s support for Lebanon amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Japan cuts deal with Mexico, via Nikkei Asia:
Japan will import 1 million barrels of crude oil from Mexico as soon as July under an agreement between the two countries’ leaders, it was learned Wednesday, as Tokyo takes a small step toward diversifying its energy supply away from the conflict-torn Middle East.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum by phone on Tuesday, requesting an increase in crude oil exports.
This is believed to be the first agreement between Japan and a foreign government to secure an alternative source of oil.
What’s On the YouTube?
Let’s wrap this up with a couple of YouTube segments that are worth a look.
Nima hosted Matthew Ho on Dialogue Works:
Ho argues that both sides may have reached a modus vivendi:
Matthew Ho: What we’re looking at is is a modus vivendi that has been agreed to tacitly. It’s just an unspoken agreement here that Donald Trump gets to declare victory in whatever form, the United States gets a way to withdraw from this war by saving face.
The Israelis get southern Lebanon.
The Iranians get sanction relief in the form of the control of the Straits of Hormuz. JP Morgan did an estimation a week or two ago. It found that that control of the Straits of Hormuz and Iran does the $1 per barrel of oil toll as they said they were going to do, that’s going to bring the Iranians $70 to $90 billion a year. That’s 25 or 30% of their GDP.
I think what you’ll see is a modus vivendi that everyone goes forward with as things are there’s occasional spouts of violence. They all get to declare victory which is what they’re all looking for. Then we go on with this until the next crisis for the Americans.
Ho also makes a strong argument that the American political system won’t be able to formally recognize this arrangement and that the US Democratic Party won’t be able to unify on an anti-Israeli position for five or ten more years.
Ugg.
Alastair Crooke guested on Daniel Davis’ Deep Dive and argued that Iranian has too strong a hand for things to stop now.
Alastair Crooke: The blockadefor Iranian tankers and Iranian vessels is not a total blockade at all.
I’ve seen all these reports about, ‘Iran is being deprived of oil (revenue), its economy is collapsing as a consequence.’
This is just sheer nonsense. It’s getting its oil out. It has various means for getting its oil out. I mean, it’s not just the Hormuz, don’t forget they have overland ability to export their oil and they have a loading site off out of Hormuz just doesn’t have a big throughput, but it has I think 350,000 barrels a day or something.
So, those vessels that you just said (have cleared the US blockade) have brought in probably close to a billion dollars.
In these period of the war, Iran has been earning double the revenue that it was earning even in the best months of the years previously. It is very well endowed with money.
Furthermore, before the war started, it put some 200 million barrels of oil at sea on vessels and it’s sold about half of those, I believe.
So they’ve got about a 100 million barrels still which they can sell to customers and take revenue and the revenues are not passing through the Gulf either through UAE financial structures which of course would be leaked immediately to the Americans. They they pass directly at the point of sale and through various means of which I am not familiar but I know are happening at the point of sale and so the the money is passing in Yuan (to Iran).
That’s enough for today.
Stay safe, y’all.
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Half in jest, I think that I have come up with an off ramp for Trump to get out of this war befor he loses everything. Here is my 11 point plan-
1. Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen
2. Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit
3. Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety
4. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
5. Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
6. Full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran
7. Full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran
8. Release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the United States
9. Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons
10. Immediate ceasefire takes effect on all fronts immediately upon approval of the above conditions
11. Iran declares Trump to be the winner of this war and nominates him for a Nobel peace prize.
It could work.
By my maths, we’re 56 days not 50 into the war.
That’s eight weeks, and there is no end in sight to the closure of the strait.
I think one of the greatest frauds in our time is unfolding in the paper oil futures market. You cannot buy real barrels for under $100 yet the CFTC hasn’t investigated who is manipulating the futures to create fake price quotes. Paper = worthless.
Take it from someone who has bemusedly watched the Silver markets for a few years; there are lots of ways to “influence” the markets.
As long as traders can make a profit on paper on the futures bourses, the “influencing” will continue. Unfortunately for most of us, we live in the “real” world. Actual physical possession of commodities takes the exchange of funds based on “real market” prices, not just paper prices.
Stay safe. Stay liquid.
Handy chart:
The Dated Brent spot price increased to a premium of more than $25 per barrel (b) compared with the front-month Brent futures contract in early April. Brent crude oil price benchmarks are widely used by commodities traders, financial market participants, economists, and others to assess changes in global petroleum prices more broadly…
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67544
I’ve been recently watching the EIA website about as often as OilPrice…
Maybe naive question, but what do you buy if you buy oil market futures? Do you get the right to any specific barrel of oil?
Just wondering aloud, trying to make sense of what happens when 100 USD paper oil meets 200 USD physical oil.
You may find this helpful– from last month but definitely germane:
Futures vs. physical: How the oil market broke in two
Thanks, good article!
I have contacts in the semiconductor industry in the US. I asked them if anyone is internally concerned about a shortage of helium affecting production.
They said that it wasn’t an issue at all. There is helium that is used in dollar store gallons that’s going to get cut out way before production of semi conductors is limited.
I couldn’t find it, but I’d love some data on how much global helium is used in the production of semiconductors. Even if 35% is lost it’s gonna be one of the last cases that doesn’t get helium.
That sounds like a cope from upper management — “everything is fine”.
A quick Google search reveals that less than 10% of global helium production goes to balloons. And anyway in our free market we’ll still get party balloons, they’ll just get more expensive.
By the same logic, the market would make sure that we have enough helium for semiconductor production as well (just more expensive)
If something does have to get cut in an actual shortage situation, it’s going to be party balloons and other low value use cases way before production lines on semiconductor fabs are shut down.
I know there might be different grades of helium and other nuances, but I’m just relaying what I’ve been told by people who work in the industry and have looked into it.
I’m not trying to make an argument one way or the other. Just arrive at what we think is true. The article above, states that:
A lack of helium — much of which is produced in Qatar — could stop the production of semiconductors.
I’d like to see numbers in the consumption of helium for these processes and the how much supply the remaining 65% represents before we make handwaving statements.
The Global Helium Crisis: What It Means for Semiconductor Manufacturing and Electronic Component Supply Chains
https://j2sourcing.com/blog/helium-crisis-semiconductor-manufacturing-electronic-components-2026/
Chip sector has enough helium, for now
https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/chip-sector-has-enough-helium-for-now/
Thanks. I read the first article. It states the point I’m making which is the production of semiconductors is not going to stop, and the cost of helium is relatively insignificant in that process.
If more damage is done in the course of the war and there’s actual shortages, then that’s another issue, but as of right now the closure of the strait it’s not going to bring the semiconductor industry to its knees. Again, just trying to see the world accurately and I don’t have an angle I’m pursing. If it’s the case semiconductors are in big trouble I’m completely open to that as well.
Hard for me to disentangle hyperscaler pressures from supply chain pressures. I don’t understand the timescales very well.
Nonetheless low margin semiconductor manufacturing is getting hit all over the place. Mostly not in news, just long-running “out of stock” on low-power CPUs like Intel N150, embedded/ industrial stuff like Vortex86, and NAND memory (which actually made the news):
https://petapixel.com/2026/03/27/sony-shuts-down-nearly-its-entire-memory-card-business-due-to-ssd-shortage/
Email correspondence with small businesses serving small markets and not having the relationships with upstream suppliers that Apple-sized companies do reveal a situation that reminds me of the pandemic battering many of the same types of businesses took.
Some products failed, some businesses failed, some needed to delay manufacturing batches for 36 months, after which the product, already built on older/ lower spec hardware compared to the original release date, was even less competitive. Some adapted.
The behemoths meanwhile felt none of the headwinds the little guys felt.
They rented the full capacity of a fab while the side jobs and low volume components disappered, prompting feverish redesign of low-margin and low production-number jobs to substitute components that were still available til they also weren’t. Waiting on responses from Mouser and Digi-key, going upstream to shake hands in Singapore or browse components in Shenzhen. Losing backers.
The biblical horseman of famine allowed the rich wine and oil while the rest starved. High end chip manufacturing will be the last to feel the helium shortage.
I imagine there is a difference between party balloon helium and ultra-pure gases that might be needed when working with high quality silicon and dripping tin lasers. We will not be told until after the fact.
I’m always picking up metallic balloons that have drifted into the backcountry, with my latest find being a ‘bouquet’ of a dozen reds that rose thanks to helium.
It was a bit jarring seeing them flat on the ground from a distance…
per ChatGPT:
Party-balloon helium sometimes [eg Australia] has oxygen added to the mix, to reduce the risk that the the balloon gas will be used in suicide attempts, or that inhalation of the gas to produce the Donald Duck-like “helium voice” will cause loss of consciousness. In other jurisdictions, ~20% air is added simply to reduce the cost of filling the balloons.
Big users besides semiconductors are MRI machines, diving mixtures, welding and rockets. Party balloons are relatively minor.
Correct. MRI alone uses about a quarter of world supply. There are other medical uses, like breathing treatments, as well. And I’ve got to think MRI and other medical uses are going to get priority over chip lithoraphy (certainly should, anyway),
So I’m not sure that just grounding the Goodyear blimp and having balloonless parties is going to cover the needs of the chip industry
I read in a Korean paper that the chip makers there (Samsung and SKHynix) have supplies into June.
Of course they would probably pay a premium for helium from other sources if we get into May and Qatar /uae is not yet shipping. Assuming the gas fields don’t get hit again and shut in for a few years.
Reminds me of several memes.
1. “I’m fine” – the dog in the burning building.
2. “Relax, it’s already priced in”. See, for example, the dinosaur meme in this blogspot post from April 20th (scroll down for the image, though lots of text also applies to current conditions).
https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2026/04/stocks-and-precious-metals-charts_20.html
A colleague runs a major gas chromatography lab at a california university and reported limitations on helium purchases to me. For reference his lab has run the air samples for every NASA airborne campaign since the 70s.
Thanks for sharing. This use case, along with MRIs are way up the ladder compared to ballon’s. However, in our current capitalist environment a university research lab is going to get cut before we stop making semiconductors.
The could in the article is doing a lot of lifting:
A lack of helium — much of which is produced in Qatar — could stop the production of semiconductors.
Also, you cannot use balloon helium for a gas chromatograph – the noise would be horrid. I am sure the same is true for fabs. OTH, if they admitted there was a problem, Mr. Market might hit their stocks hard, and all that implies (for the AI circular funding scheme bubble).
Note, its not just price, its also a limit on the volume you can purchase – the industrial gas market is down to just a few players (Airgas who bought most), who act like a cartel/monopoly. I can no longer buy cylinders from Airgas – they only rent!
Canada supplies 20% of US’s helium.
The US state of Kansas also produces helium in industrial qualities.
Rumblings of stress on MRI in medical settings and research chromatography in Kentucky, but still just rumblings.
It’s already a concern in radiocarbon dating. The mass spectrometers use it as the carrier. I have already been talking with my regular 14C lab. They have a small reserve, but we are all getting worried.
Helium shortage!
Not a problem for hyperscalers’ data centers which are mostly hype with a tiny fraction of the centers, used to sell AI hype, actually detailed spec projects.
Iran will be the red herring that busts the AI bubble.
Squeaky and seemingly higher pitched worries in regards to helium…
In rough numbers, 1/3 of He goes to semiconductors, 1/3 to medical and other imaging, and 1/3 to everything else (space, party balloons, welding)
So basically, there are 3 categories: semiconductors, MRI machines, and everything else. With Qatar down, you get to pick two.
Also I think for helox used in deep underwater diving, pipeline repair etc.
Re: Trump and Netanyahu — pasted without comment:
Brilliant. I’d be grateful if someone could provide a link to print the poster.
I doubt that the poster is available anywhere. Your best bet is probably to pause the video there and take a screenshot or screen snip with the video window as large as possible in order to get the best resolution.
Ouch, the truth hurts.
Excellent. You wonder if they’ll keep that link away from Trump along with the nuclear football.
Adding… “Wall Kissers” skanky nightclub lol
It also seems Iran is evading the blockade by staying in friendly countries territorial waters (ie hugging the coast). The US isn’t taking about it as far as I can tell, but it makes sense.
https://xcancel.com/biancoresearch/status/2047038588462788804
Does anyone know if that is enough oil to those two countries to keep the production from being shut in in Iran
Re Markets
Someone pointed out the other day in comments that the passive daily investment in the market from auto-401k investments was by itself enough to move markets higher. I don’t really know that’s true, but for a market outsider like me, sounds plausible that the auto-investing volume is enough to distort markets. If that’s true, or even if it’s just a significant contributor to the markets going up, then that driver of market inflation will end when the recession really hits.
Headlines these days report lots of job losses that would end the auto-401k investing for the laid off employees, at least those that are not re-hired, but surely there’s far more layoffs to come. Now, severance packages can keep the money flowing awhile, but the layoffs surely will cut into that volume. The other driver will be workers investing less in their 401ks because they need more cash because inflation.
Which is just to say that while the market may have a tangible support through auto-investing, even that will buckle from what’s coming.
Does anyone who understand the market better than me have more insight?
thanks
A lot of people will withdraw from their 401ks and pay the 10% tax if they lose their jobs, plus more and more boomers retire every year.
The only other factor I can think of is that Jay Powell is stepping down at some point this year, and there goes the last adult in the room who might try to fight inflation with a rate hike or two.
Instead, we’re going to get a hidebound stooge who will do Taco’s bidding. In this case, Warsh, who will probably try to cut rates into an inflationary environment. This will be a huge disaster, but the disaster won’t hit until 2027. Until then, party on.
When you say markets you are probably referring to the “stock market”. That is equities. Equities is not the economy. Pretty much the only time equities contribute to the real economy is when an IPO directly finances a company. After that the stock is publicly traded but any increase in a stock’s value does not directly contribute to the underlying company’s bank account. For working capital companies borrow. For large companies that means issuing bonds It is this borrowed money not the stock market that provides the everyday lubrication for the real economy. Also any 401K is going to offer treasury bond funds. 401’s are composed of funds and are directed by the holder. They are not passive but the available funds tend to be conservative, safe.
Don’t worry about the stock market. Worry about inflation and interest rates. Therein lies the threat of recession, which is about the real economy and actual layoffs.
I struggle with the argument that it’s the algos keeping markets up right now. My limited understanding of “the algos” is that they are more “trading” algos, i.e. buying and selling with a day. Maybe high frequency trading, but maybe even some lower frequency (but still intra-day). To me, that would have no effect on long term market levels, because they average out.
Essentially, for the markets to keep going up, more people need to be buying than selling. Inflows from 401k auto-purchases has to exceed outflows. So why do people keep buying the market? Because an entire generation of workers have been trained that there is no other option if they want to retire someday. (I had a bear-ish friend make this argument to me for why the market was overvalued. The problem is, that was 10+ years ago now!)
I agree on the skepticism for algorithms setting the value for the market. My understanding is that many are in the general category of mean reversion; many different flavors that buy on declines and then sell on spikes. This is tactics, not strategy. The problem is that this creates the illusion of persistent bid under the market, truncating the average depth of the left tail and skewing what investor’s think is the average payoff pattern is for stocks, then they take too much risk. If this is so, the algos aren’t the cause of mis-valuation but they still distort the market in a risky way.
I would like to change one word here: “Essentially, for the markets to keep going up, more people need to be buying than selling” and that is to change people to money. If the price keeps going up, there should be a net inflow of money.
One way is to force or convince ordinary people to put their money in the stock market, another is for the government to hand more money to the people who has no other use for it than buy something that promises a nice return. I would guess the latter has by now quite a sizeable pile of claims on assets.
A few thoughts, there is buying or selling pressure. New money coming into the market might increase pressure but for every buy there is a sell. In order for you to put cash into the market someone else has to cash out. It does not require new money for a stock to go up. It requires a potential sellers who will not accept a lower price. There is also a point of equilibrium on 401k’s with retirees mandated yearly withdrawals. We have not reached that point yet but it is a factor. Other factors flowing money into or out of the market are interest rates. As interest rates rise bonds become more attractive. I certainly loaded up when rates hit 5%. Also dollar declines in FX markets make US stocks more attractive.
More on Japan:
Japan to start releasing extra 20 days’ worth of oil reserves from May 1
This is bothering me. Korea’s doing something similar– basically giving consumers no reason to curb demand.
If I was in charge, I would already have formed a committee to plan for the worst. I would be insisting on serious cutbacks in consumption with triggered phases. The more everything continues as normal, the more painful it will be when things get bad. And this way, essential services can be maintained longer.
Am I wrong to think this way? Like, Korea is promoting May as “Visit Korea Month!” and maintaining very strict caps on petrol prices at the pump. I know President Lee is desperately working to get secure access to re sources from various countries but the general population is given only signals to continue consuming as normal.
There was some talk about the EU mandating four-day work weeks or one day of mandatory remote work for those jobs where it is feasible. But I haven’t seen any follow up, and whether the EU can actually enforce that is questionable.
Tourism should be the first thing to go, but the bezzle dies hard.
That’s gotta be true especially for a place like Jeju, South Korea: tourism is the economy there, for all practical purposes (they used to be known for tangerines and fish, which I guess still exist, but can’t be worth much compared to tourism.) They can’t downplay that!
That would be the sane thing to do. But, people also remember what happened to Jimmy Carter during the late 70s energy crisis when he made the sane suggestion that people put on a sweater.
Jeju guy, have you heard anything regarding Korea’s attempts to buy more oil from Russia?
The previous regime in Korea burned their relationship with Russia after kowtowing to the Junited States and sending 500,000 artillery shells to Ukraine. But maybe the current administration is more skilled in diplomacy and aren’t spineless cowards like the last bunch. Just curious.
(btw I would LOVE to visit Jeju island some day! I was born and raised in 아현동, 서울 but we weren’t a rich family and never got a chance to visit)
Koreans now seem to be flocking to Taiwan – most of the same benefits of Cheju-do (my age is showing in the spelling, obviously) and little of the cost. There were places in Taipei where I saw almost as much hangul as English.
I’m surprised that going abroad would cost less than staying domestic!
It bothers me too.
In Australia the first thing the government did was halve the fuel tax to make it look like they were keeping prices down.
Exactly the reverse of what they should have been doing which was preparing for rationing.
They either believed the US would win the war in 3 weeks like Trump said or they were just sleepwalking.
In either case it did not inspire much confidence in our wise and competent leaders.
Gotta agree. The government wants to keep the appearance that everything is fine and normal and nothing will have to change. But sooner or later there will be a panic and it will be all restrictions and special orders because they did not act sooner.
By some back of the napkin math: it seems like the Strait needs to be closed for 7-8 months to have a “meltdown” level impact.
Here’s my rundown:
8 billion in “inventory” worldwide. This includes everything, oil in a pipeline, oil on a vlcc, etc …
It’s hard to know how much of its actual inventory, but the oil analyst Rory Johnson put it at 2 billion on the high side.
There there is ~1.2 billion in strategic petroleum reserves. Of which 400 million has already been slated for release and has started.
With 13 million of shut in production you lose roughly 400,000,000 barrels a month. At that burn rate with the 3 billion we need to burn through that puts us at a 7 to 8 month timeline.
Of course, this doesn’t count for all of the intricacies of actually making it happen via logistics and all the other real world nuances. But from a high level, I would like everyone’s feedback on where The numbers might be wrong or the timeline is too short or too long.
Strategic reserve values are the theoretical maximum. Because they are depleted oil fields or other geological structures, the last 20-30% ish cannot be withdrawn. So more like 900-400 mb = 500 mb reserves or 25 days if the Red Sea remains open, 15 days if it closes.
Also, it is not a global problem. It is a Western-aligned (including Modi’s India) problem. Russia and its allies have no issue, and China is still getting its oil (under long-term contracts) and thus has no need to tap its reserves yet (I am guessing Rory includes their ~1 billion in his estimate).
I see three issues:
One is that there isn’t one giant pool of crude, there are lots of much smaller pools of different grades of crude as well as distillates, and they are not evenly distributed where they are needed. Each of those substances have their own supply chains and visible supplies and thus their own scarcity dynamics.
Second, scarcities are anticipated by big players and this is a feedback loop that brings scarcity dynamics forward in time. Hoarding and anticipatory buying or taking supply off the market all are part of this process. At some point, this goes non-linear.
I think some of the crude you are referencing is already accounted for as purchased or designated for specific use. To your point on this, no one really knows and this uncertainty also accelerates scarcity dynamics.
For sure. I agree with all of those points. The 7-8 months is trying to quantify an upper bound, and it probably comes sooner due to these points and others. How much sooner? No ones knows, but maybe it all falls part after 5-6 months? and we are roughly 2 months in
Logistically, the ships that are still stranded in the Gulf reduce the extent to which still accessible oil can be delivered. Regardless and as others have pointed out, distribution is non-linear; the shocks will be, to again quote Gibson, “unevenly distributed”. This will destabilize the most fragile and dependent economies first. By the time the knock-on-effects of that chaos affects you in any way, the connection may no longer appear obvious.
You are likely correct that the chip industry has more buying power as relates to helium than the laboratory industry, but the same is true for nations.
All that to say, whether ‘panic’ is an overreaction or not is at present very dependant on where in the world you happen to be reading this. It may be true that the US and others see only steady single-digit inflation over several years, but for other parts of the world there will be substantial shocks.
This is way too simplistic. Yves has posted multiple articles on how interconnected various industries are to oil production.
Currently most analysists with a good track record say we have about 2-4 weeks before things start to get real in the US. Around 3 months for a global depression.
This is meant to be an upper bound. I’ve read the articles Yves has posted. I have no doubt pain is coming, but it doesn’t look to be here in 2-4 weeks. Check here for the the US inventories of Crude, Gas, etc…
https://xcancel.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2046971274644131878
I don’t think the panic or pain is going to settle in until there are significant draws on the US inventories. Are there some numbers you’re looking at that gets us where we are 2-4 weeks away from pain?
I’d redo your checks. The US reserves are shockingly low and not helped by Trump stating we will have tankers lining up to get US oil. Also, it’s not just the oil itself, but things that rely on oil.
I would keep in mind the rate at which the US reserves can be tapped is rather low, and would do little to offset what the US imports globally. Spot price are at around $150 a barrel and rising. There is no way that does not impact gas prices and overall inflation. Food prices alone are already up in March by around 2.7%.
So I’d argue that the US is already in pain, and it will only get worse.
Also, with regards to helium unless you have contacts in Taiwan your statements about semiconductors don’t have much weight as that is the prime manufacturing location.
add the nuance that not all oil is the same. the permian barrel scraping exercise is still light sweet(permian peaked for conventional, stick a straw in the ground, crude in like 1971.), but a great many refineries moved away from that in the last 30 years…at least in and around houston.
you cant just rejigger such a complex mess of pipes and cracking towers overnight.
the refinery there in pasagetdowndena, tx i passed biannually to and from dad’s house in clear lake took 10 years to reconfigure for heavy sour…biggest cracking tower in the world at the time.
we’d pull over and watch the enormous cranes on occasion.
then venezuela was the enemy of a sudden,lol(chavez)
ie:its complicated.
also and adjacent, the permian basin’s fracking wells behave more like gas wells than the old timey oil wells. the collapse of a given field no longer follows the hubbert curve, it is instead a steep drop. usa is not the ‘new saudi arabia’.
Commercial inventories are not all available for usage.
For example, US commercial crude storage has a headline number of 460 million bbls. Roughly 135 to 155 million bbls of that is in linefill, volumes needed to keep pipelines flowing. Then you have operational minimums, volumes required to keep storage working. When you take that into account, the range from bottom to max capacity is 370-380 million to 540-570 million bbls – the margin is 160-200.
This is a major reason why small changes in cumulative production versus expectations drive large price swings.
same sort of thing for the refineries. i expect the gulf coast refiners to begin operating at half capacity or less in short order. thats easier than a shutdown…and they’ll put off a shutdown for as long as they can by reducing throughput. but theres an unknown to me minimum operating capacity involved, here.
ive done partial shutdown work at those places, long ago….i was the gopher/driver guy at my grandad’s smallish sheetmetal/pipefitter shop in late 80’s….all of those jobs were rather harrowing,lol…just knowing that the whole frelling place was a giant bomb(i had zero trouble refraining from smoking on-site,lol). they’d shut down a portion of the plant for 24 hours, and we and others would swoop in and work a day and night to get whatever our portion of the retrofit/maintenance work done.
those are exceedingly complex places.
one doesnt just turn a key.
One day I was on the defensive
When I needed a hand
And it couldn’t be found
I was so far down
That I couldn’t get up
You know and
One day I was one of life’s losers
Even my friends were my ac-cus-ers
And in my head
Lost before I’d begun
I had a dream
But it turned to dust
What I thought was Zionist love
That must have been lust
I was living in style
When the walls fell in
When I played my hand
I looked like a joker
Turn around
Fate must have woke her
‘Cause lady luck she was
Waiting outside the door
I’m winning
I’m winning
I’m winning
And I don’t intend on losing again
Too bad the war belonged to me
It was the wrong time
And not meant to be
It took a long time
And I knew for now
I can see the day
That I breath for
Zionist friends agree there’s a need
To play the game
And to win again
I’m winning
I’m winning
I’m winning
And I don’t intend on losing again
Winning, performed by Santana
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48zCeNXRapM&list=RD48zCeNXRapM
Elsewhere on the Welsh blog there’s this backgrounder on Iran by Sean Kelley.
https://www.ianwelsh.net/iran-for-dummies/
It’s overly snarky but he makes the point that the Iranians are smart and educated people with religion functioning more as a kind of social glue rather than the doctrinaire cult nature of the Trumpie/fundie faction or, more recently, Jewish fundamentalists in Israel. In other words one might simplify by saying this war is the smart people versus the dumb people and that latter should include the Israelis who, for all their cleverness, don’t have a very realistic notion of how a tiny colony is going to rule the region. In their case social intelligence looks to be the Achilles heel.
But then all wars could be seen as a failure of social intelligence in an era when weapons can destroy the very planet.
The Big Smoke 40 miles away from me has so much dogma going on with a few evang MAGA megachurches and the Catholics perhaps feeling the heat, built the largest parish church in these not so united states, in a city of just 146k human beans!
One of the evang megachurches had Charlie Kirk there the week before perhaps the Zionists took him out in the Beehive state.
Visalia was also recently ranked the least educated city in the country, and dare I correlate the two?
Why not!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/how-visalia-ranks-among-most-least-educated-cities-in-us/ar-AA1Jcirl?apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1
I saw an article that said the Trump supporters are a Jim Jones style personality cult and the MAGA are not going to desert him even up to and including drinking the Koolaid.
I have my doubts, but there are undoubtedly a small core for whom this is true–not 40 percent of voters but maybe 30 percent. Meanwhile the one percent love them some Trump but may prove fickle once the market crashes.
It could be a true test of their faith, for those of the prosperity gospel.
If you watch Fox News or OANN and visit right-wing websites, everything Trump is doing is brilliant, and he sure is teaching those Iranians a lesson and totally owning the libs at home. So it’s really hard to get the people stuck in that information silo to face reality, maybe impossible.
Yes but even top rate Fox News only gets a couple of million viewers for popular programs and they tend to be the older crowd. I doubt that Fox has much influence on polling in general.
There are undoubtedly “to the bitter end” Trump supporters as I suggested above. But on the other hand the economic Titanic hasn’t yet quite hit the iceberg.
I’m not a Fox News viewer but sometimes I’ll feel the urge to check what’s going on in that world. Fox News does a daily highlight/recap video of its prime time shows for its YouTube channel, all of which are collected in this playlist:
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlTLHnxSVuIxwOhAhMQY-kHPnms1bpYl7&si=0SBf3AmLx8bgsZPG
Would not recommend watching too much of it but if this stuff is representative of their news diet, then it sure explains how the MAGA diehards maintain their faith. “Propaganda” seems somehow an inadequate label.
To me, the main benefit in sampling sources like Fox or MS Now is to notice the difference in stories they cover. Haven’t done it recently but have been surprised in the past by the lack of overlap.
I saw that pointed out years ago by someone who migrated from the Soviet block. A big part of propaganda lies in the editorial choices about which stories to cover.
that seven year virtual field study of the american right i did when i was laid up waiting for a hip replacement…well, i kept coming across a 15% number for the true believers…everyone else was on board contingently, for a variety of reasons, but were ready to abandon ship at all times if something appeared that might make their pet cause some gravy.
this 15% or so was relatively stable across decades….but my study ended in 2013. that percentage still holds locally, and skews geezer.
Regarding the psyops that Iran will run out of oil storage – it assumes that Iran, which knew it (!!) would close the straits in the military conflict of the US long term, and which has successfully implemented its military plan to date, was unable to forecast and plan with say, underground storage (as the US, Japan, China, etc. all have), strains credibility to the breaking point. But anything to massage up Mr. Market.
Lots of reports that Iran run out of this or that or the other thing, but the pudding keeps showing the proof that it isn’t. The problem is that the administration acts as if it believes its own ever-changing narrative.
Yeah, they are “high on their own supply” of propaganda: Most of the US mass media, politicians, Mr. Market, and the US regime appear to believe the fairy-tales. S&P up at near-record levels, everything is fantastic!
Reminds me of the media cheer-leaders urging suckers to get into the market before the crash of 08.
All this talk of the risk to Iranian oil fields but nary a peep about the Gulf states…
And western media almost never mention the brutal head-chopping Saudi dictatorship. The Iranians have a “regime” whereas the GCC family dictatorships are called “Gulf states”, Just invert the pack of lies (what is now euphemistically called a “narrative”) and we have something much closer to the facts.
similar to my refinery reminiscing above, the fields themselves cant just be shut down and restarted…damage is done in the process…geological damage, as in collapsing strata, etc…and saudi arabia has long been rather coy about the state of their oil fields.
there was a guy we fished with when i was a kid…he was one of a handfull of people in the world back then who could operate a lateral drilling rig. looking at him, youd think he was a redneck fanatic fisherman guy…but he was a multimillionaire,lol.
i remember him talking to dad as we were wade fishing for speckled trout in west matagorda bay…circa 1984?
he said that what he was doing in kuwait…what he called “bottlebrushing”…was something one didnt do to an oil field unless it was all but spent. this is early fracking type techniques.
my point in these anecdotes is that real, catastrophic damage can be done by SA, et alia, being forced to shut down production at the wellhead. that shit might never come on-line, again.
Thanks, Nat, for this update. In a conversation with Danny Haiphong, Victor Gao (very well connected) reminds us that if the US tries a ground invasion, Chechen forces have promised (which means Russian agreement) to fight Americans in Iran. Gao also notes that if the US or Israel uses a nuclear weapon, someone will return the favor, which likely leads to a few dozen being used and a nuclear winter that would end harvests for a few years and most of the populations of neoliberal countries that have not laid in food stores. Unsure if tactical nuclear weapons have the same nuclear winter risk – probably, as it is the lofting of fine aerosols into the stratosphere that causes the effect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rWKtvXyuaI
A few dozen nuclear weapons, I would argue, are very unlikely to “end harvests”. Especially if a majority of them (or all of them) are in the sub-megaton range, and at least some are used in ground-burst mode to try and take out some of the missile cities. Essentially, you need to not just generate the particles, you need to push them high enough into the atmosphere to get the (un)desired effect. And in bulk.
I actually watched a very informative presentation from a research team in a Russian research institute that tries to model out nuclear winter effects about a year and a half ago or so. Yes, there is a threshold in terms of the number of weapons used and their magnitude where things get really, really bad. [As in, 70%-90% of all plant life in the northern hemisphere dies.] Basically, you need a lot of big atmospheric (the higher, the better) explosions of 1MT plus, but we’re talking triple-to-quadruple digits. So US vs. China or Russia is bad. India vs. Pakistan is unpleasant, but probably not critical, at least for the world as a whole.
Obviously, these are theoretical calculations that cannot be verified experimentally without…verifying them experimentally. But I would be wary of excessive fearmongering here.
‘Basically, you need a lot of big atmospheric (the higher, the better) explosions of 1MT plus, but we’re talking triple-to-quadruple digits.’
What do you mean – 100 or more 1MT bombs (triple digits) or correspondingly smaller numbers of more powerful bombs, to 1000 or more 1MTs (quadruple)? That’s a long way from what I’ve read, but maybe this Russian research is more up to date.
I’ve also read it matters where explosions happen. Cities contain a lot of combustible material, making a lot of smoke.
Do you have a link relating to that Russian research?
I think it’s been established that an India Pakistan nuclear war could induce a nuclear winter. It isn’t the bombs themselves that generate the particles: it’s the burning cities. And India and Pakistan have a lot of cities.
Basically, you need a lot of big atmospheric (the higher, the better) explosions of 1MT plus
I would have thought groundbursts, to toss more crap into the air. Or were they considering the effect of essentially setting a wider urban area on fire and THAT being the crap pumped into the air?
thats my understanding, as well…groundbursts=more crap in the high atmosphere.
better to cease fuckin around, so we dont hafta find out.
good news, i suppose, is that global warming would be mitigated for a decade or more.(but not stop)
‘Chechen forces have promised (which means Russian agreement) to fight Americans in Iran.’
Has Russia agreed to this yet?
This is a theroretical and PR exercise, because there will be no ground invasion of Iran by JUSA and there will never be one. Because JUSA is incapable of it. JUSA knows it, Russia knows it, everybody knows it. JUSA simply does not have the capability to assemble 500,000 combat troops (absolute minimum number that would be required to have any hope of success) in the region.
But back to your question, yes Russia has approved it. Chechnya is a region within the Russian Federation and if Putin didn’t want the Chechens saying this, they wouldn’t have said it or they would’ve been slapped down by Kremlin after saying it. Obviously this didn’t happen.
And btw Chechens are Russian, as in they are citizens of the nation called Russian Federation (they are Rossiyanin, RF citizens…. as opposed to Russky which would mean ethnic Slavic Russians, which they are not. English doesn’t have much nuance when it comes to words describing ethnicities)
“yes Russia has approved it. … if Putin didn’t want the Chechens saying this, they wouldn’t have said it or they would’ve been slapped down by Kremlin after saying it. Obviously this didn’t happen.”
Putin / the Kremlin might be fine with Kadyrov saying it, while withholding, at least for now, actual approval for Chechen troops going to Iran.
Ho seems to believe Hezbollah will let Israel take over Southern Lebanon. Doubtful.
Alastair Crooke disagrees as well.
My thought exactly. The real implication in his words is that Iran would abandon a long-term ally.
I cannot see Iran doing so for both moral and practical reasons. I was rather shocked that he suggested it.
‘Trump’s post gives away the game saying “The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah.” ‘
There was a lot of talk like this on the news tonight and they were talking about getting rid of the “terrorists” in Lebanon. No, not the IDF. Hezbollah. Thing is, for years now the US has made sure that the Lebanese army was little more than an internal security force so does not have the means to disarm Hezbollah. And this is assuming that the Lebanese army does not look the other way as far as Hezbollah are concerned. It appears that Trump wants to use the lands that the IDF has occupied in Lebanon as some sort of bargaining chip with Iran in the same way that he tried to use the Donbass with Russia. Thing is, like in the war in the Ukraine, fibre-optic drones have changed the name of the game and if Hezbollah gets sufficient of them, can make life hell for those IDF soldiers in Lebanon.
I heard Laith Marouf interviewed recently (Chris Hedges) where he says that Hezbollah have become some of the top experts in drone operations. No doubt they have learned from the Russia/Ukraine war but he says they have drawn from their own experience as well to perfect the techniques. That would be consistent with their asymmetric successes against the Zionist occupiers.
Top Republican Admits MAGA Reps Want Ghislaine Maxwell Pardoned
https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-republican-confirms-lawmakers-considering-maxwell-pardon/
America Is Losing the Iran War
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/america-is-losing-the-iran-war
Even Worse Than Trump: Disapproval for Republican-Led Congress Reaches 86%
https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/even-worse-than-trump-disapproval-for-republican-led-congress-reaches-86
Community Votes to Deny Water to Nuclear Weapons Data Center
https://www.404media.co/community-votes-to-deny-water-to-nuclear-weapons-data-center/
Rep. Green Warns Trump Is “Devolving into a Dictator” in Call for Impeachment
https://www.c-span.org/clip/us-house-of-representatives/rep-green-warns-trump-is-devolving-into-a-dictator-in-call-for-impeachment/5199447
Microsoft offers buyout for up to 7% of U.S. employees
https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/23/microsoft-offers-buyout-for-up-to-7-of-u-s-employees/
Trump’s war has backfired spectacularly: Iran is now more influential than ever
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/23/donald-trump-iran-war-tehran-strait-hormuz
DOJ arrests soldier who made $400,000 betting on Maduro’s removal: Sources
https://abcnews.com/US/doj-arrests-soldier-made-400000-betting-maduros-removal/story
Iran deploys more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, sources say
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/iran-strait-hormuz-mines-trump
Israeli soldiers looting homes in Lebanon on large scale, report says
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-soldiers-looting-homes-lebanon-large-scale-report-says
Outrage Grows Over GOP Plan to Take Food Aid From Millions of Women and Children
https://www.commondreams.org/news/republicans-cut-food-aid
White House accuses China of industrial-scale theft of AI technology
https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-accuses-china-industrial-scale-theft-ai-technology-ft-reports-2026-04-23/
Democrats want to ban ICE from turning warehouses into detention centers
https://www.theverge.com/policy/917643/ban-warehouse-detention-act-ice-dhs
France takes climate off the agenda at G7 environment talks to avoid US clash
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260423-g7-climate-change-omits-paris-meeting-us-france
Poll Finds Just 4 Percent of Democrats Support Increasing Military Aid to Israel
https://truthout.org/articles/poll-finds-just-4-percent-of-democrats-support-increasing-military-aid-to-israel/
Was Donald Trump ‘blocked’ from using the nuclear codes against Iran?
https://www.france24.com/en/was-donald-trump-blocked-from-using-the-nuclear-codes-against-iran-1
Rand Paul Slams Republicans For Voting Against Bill To Rein In Trump Amid Iran War
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rand-paul-slams-republicans-for-voting-against-bill-to-rein-in-trump-amid-iran-war_n_69e9f1dbe4b0cc34aae48c92
Trump Has Already Spent at Least $4.7 Billion Attacking Latin America
https://theintercept.com/2026/04/23/costs-war-latin-america-boat-strikes-venezuela/
Tough on Crime? Trump Justice Department Purges Law Enforcement Jobs
https://newrepublic.com/post/209451/justice-department-law-enforcement-layoffs
Alex Jones predicts Donald Trump’s future: ‘They will have a trial’
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2026/04/alex-jones-predicts-donald-trumps-future-they-will-have-a-trial.html
Tulsi Gabbard’s Dangerous War: Trump’s hatchet woman is weaponizing classified intelligence like never before.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-donald-trump-obama-brennan-deep-state/
Americans Losing Confidence in Trump’s Handling of Russia-Ukraine War | Pew Research Center
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/04/23/americans-have-become-less-confident-in-trumps-decision-making-on-ukraine/
“DOJ arrests soldier who made $400,000 betting on Maduro’s removal” Wow, that’s cold. I mean what’s good for the goose and all that. His paymasters are raking it in. $400k is couch cushion money compared to what the people in charge are raking in.
Support for Israel in the USA is melting away faster than the snow cover did in our recent heat spell, I give it 3 years maximum, because guess who Americans blame the Ramadan War on?
As far as what Trump will do next, bet on stupid.
Aggressive and stupid.
Trump and Netanyahu are not rational actors………………
You can bet your bottom dollar that the Israelis will blame the US for not winning this war and leaving them in the lurch.It will be another version of the we-were-stabbed-in-the-back theory and how America does not do enough for Israel. Well, apart from the aqueducts that is…
That, in the long run, might set the stage for Iran-Israel rapproachment (although the proce for that will be Iran giving up Lebanon).
I have this hunch that Israel antagonizing Iran is something unnatural, unless they had a ridiculously exaggerated sense of their place. Even old hardliners like Sharon were skeptical of the idea back then–their view, iirc, was that too much ” expansion” made Israel too vulnersble and dependent. The rise of people like Netanyahu, in other words, was engineered by warmongers in Washington in the long run who wanted revenge on Tehran rather than an organic process rooted just in Israel. That, however, could only be sustained by commensurate support from and coordination with US–something that made the old nationalists uneasy.
This will have to be, assuming it takes place at all, a long process: Israel already latched itself into far too many entanglements away from its own neighborhood that I don’t see them easily escaping them–assuming it ever decides it wants to. Paradoxically, many of these entanglements involve advancement of Washington warmongers’ agenda so the inducements would remain considerable, or at least, the attempts to keep them up would be–in other words, thd balance of power in DC has to change in the long run. I suppose it’s not all that new: ancient Israelites garrisoned Egypt and invaded Greece as part of Achemenid Persia’s armies, no?
Of course, such a deal would still mean that Palestind and Lebanon are still in bad places.
unless they had a ridiculously exaggerated sense of their place
is this statement intended to reference God’s Own Chosen People?
It was Israeli hardliners who assassinated Rabin because he wanted peace with the Palestinians and Arab nations. They didn’t need warmongers in Washington. The expansionist policies were hatched in Israel
There’s distinction between expanding into, say, Lebanon vs picking a fight with Iran. There is no “expansion” into Iran–they aren’t even that close. While Sharon and Netanyahu might have agreed wrt their immediate neighborhood in principle (but even then, Sharon did pull out of Gaza on thd principle that it was getting too costly gor Israel), I don’t thimk they shared thd same view of an oversized role for Israel poking its nose everywhere in the broadly defined Middle East.
Or, in other words, the old warmongers recognized the limits of both Israel and the possible downsides of getting too hung up with Israel. The new warmongers, otoh, besides having oversized sense of Israel’s place, were also confident in their ability to extract support from the Goyyim–many of whom, to be fair, were also eager to subsidize Israel so that the latter can go after US’s enemies in thd region and beyond.
i reckon the wagging is coming from both the dog and the tail, but israel wouldnt be so gung ho if they hadnt been the aircraft carrier for almost 80 years already.
this is all a part of a half-baked strategy from the late cold war that has just taken longer to do than its planners anticipated…meanwhile, the world has changed,lol.
the neocons, and their precursors, wanted to prevent the rising of a peer power after cold war. way to do this was control energy, ie: oil and gas.
but remember all the yelling about chinese overproduction of things like ev’s and solar panels? and how it would collapse their economy?
well, the ROW is looking around…seeing how shaky their dependence on oil and gas makes them…and china is sitting there on gobs and gobs of an alternative source of energy.
usa is playing last century’s game, and therefore losing.
my fave Sun Tsu quote/aphorism:” all tactics and no strategy is the noise before defeat”.
usa just doesnt realise that we’ve already collapsed, and in our hubris, mistakes nemesis sitting in our lap for some sweet young thing.
I would think so, but I’ll believe that when we get bipartisan legislation in Congress to cut Israel off from US financial, military, economic, and political support. Even if that happened, the emperor would probably veto. The likelihood of Congress overriding a veto is very low.
They’re idiots if they blame Israel. The USA went into this war instead of saying “NO!” to Israel a long time ago. The USA could stop Israel; Israel could not stop the USA. But some US citizens prefer to find an external scapegoat rather than confront the reality of their own country.
I saw that Bibi has admitted he has prostate cancer two months after original diagnosis. It’s still pretty hush-hush: no Gleason number and no indication yes or no on spread. The “no sign of it” phraseology means nothing if he’s been put on ADT treatment, since the patient’s PSA typically becomes “undetectable” while on the treatment. Biden was much more open about his diagnosis, but then he was irrelevant by that time.
This is a war on both Iran, and Reality. Baghdad Bob wouldn’t get a look in to today’s White House, or the media for that matter. The gaslighting and insanity will continue indefinitely. We’ll be facing months or years of politicians and PMCs shamelessly rolling out howler after howler as people’s lives are destroyed until even the stodgiest of middle classers simply gives up and walks away. Where to is the next question. Already you can expect insiders to be angling for the next political scam.
‘COMBATE |🇵🇷
@upholdreality
Prof. Michael Hudson: The #1 US export for 5 months straight is gold. Not AI, not aircraft. Gold to Switzerland, Hong Kong, China. In 1971 Nixon shut the gold window to stop it. Now America can’t — it IS the one selling. The empire is liquidating itself. America’s broke.’
What is also strange is that Australia’s biggest export to the US is gold – about $11 billion worth. So does our gold go straight to the US and out the back door to London and Switzerland then?
Aussie took our promise sorry notes and we kited karats?
Is the US exporting actual physical gold, or transferring bits of digital paper representing ownership of gold?
real, physical gold
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2026/01/30/not-good-news-gold-was-top-us-export-an-unprecedented-second-month/
I wonder when they will run out. I think it was a few weeks ago where France did some weird arrangement where they sold their American gold and used the cash to buy “up to standard” (do gold bars change over time?) gold bars from London that they then brought home which I thought was a bizarre arrangement since the US allegedly has the world’s largest gold reserves.
I think they did it that way as the US is loath to give any gold back to countries that store it in the US. Germany is still trying to get their gold back after about a decade of trying. But any gold bars leaving the US should be checked that they are not gold-plated tungsten bars. It has happened before.
Really like the YouTube videos getting their own little segment at the end, makes it easier to watch after I’m done reading. Keep up the good work!
Thanks!
From Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster
Reminds me of the scene in the first third of Star Trek, The Voyage Home, where the USS Yorktown has lost all power due to the alien probe, and is trying to deploy a makeshift solar sail.
Without sufficient fuel for international trade, this is gonna let lit really fast. As I recall America is a big importer of fruits and vegetables these days. And our pharmaceuticals come very much from overseas. The list, of course, is quite endless.
Today, S&P tagged ATHs again I think.
Maybe we can eat 1s and 0s?
> Maybe we can eat 1s and 0s?
Actually, yes! Time for Kellogg’s to try again with 1’s and 0’s — perhaps more Lucky-Charms- or Froot-Loops-like — instead of Cheerios-like O’s and K’s.
https://www.mrbreakfast.com/cereal_detail.asp?id=263
I’ve gotten off my permanently sore rear, and we’re planning on starting with some red radishes that are planted between the Chinese and English peas. The spinach should come along next, then the lettuce. The tomato plants are about six inches tall a month before they’ll be transplanted. The strawberries are blooming, and there’s a small tree full of almonds that survived cold weather somehow.
It really puts a smile on my face to be back gardening.
I’ve just put the potato bed in, and the first asparagus is up (early this year). The plum trees are in bloom with a full battalion of pollinators putting in work. I spent the morning pulling blow-downs to the firewood lot where they were put to the saw. I may have been smiling.
i replanted the cukes, zukes and beans for the third time today.
first, it was a late hard freeze in late march(after it had been in the 90’s for almost 3 weeks). then a few days ago, the 3 days of heavy rain began with 3″ of pea-sized hail dumped on me in about 15 minutes…shredding everything.
i expect it to be too hot going forward for lettuce and spinach, now…but arugala does well in heat, as do collards and mustards, sothose are next.
various vine squashes…pumpkins, trombocino, spaghetti, etc…survived the hail.
toms and tomatillos i had already set out might recover, due to my arrangement of trees and trellises and pergolas for just this purpose.
idk how the hail did the fruitset, though…havent scrutinised the trees, yet…altho the pear trees look pretty ragged.
pretty bummed about that hail, since i watched it fall from the back porch.
15 minutes undid a month of work.
Here the sun permits only a small box of cilantro, thyme, and basil. None died so far. I killed the thyme two years running. It’s looking healthy this go around. Wish I could garden here. Somewhere someday maybe.
Tomatoes, container style. Marigolds for beauty and perhaps pest control. Thats it. As the “compound” is a box with a patio. Soil is life, like water is life.💦 Lucky you, me, all. 💐
likely too rich a soil. thyme, and really the rest of the mediterranean herbs, like dry and rocky and low humus soils.
even ordinary commercially available potting soil is too rich.
they get wet feet, as it were.
add copious sand and or limestone rocks/gravel.
and dont water too much. it aint a tomato.
Seems simple – even if the west finds a black swan to win with, the collective leadership has proven incapable of removing a completely incompetent top leadership team.
It took the USSR 50 years after Stalin proved the incompetence of the Eastern block to replace it’s incompetents from power, but at the end that’s what killed them
The Iranian foreign minister said that his trip to Pakistan is the first of three stops on a trip abroad.
Professor Marandi confirms that the FM will not be meeting with the US in Pakistan. Iran’s conditions for a meeting have been made clear.
If Trump wasn’t planning to destroy an entire civilization overnight using nukes then what was he planning to use instead? Conventional weapons wouldn’t accomplish this.
Also interesting that the word ‘conventional’ was used, was ready to hand in his mental vocabulary, as if this had been part of a recent conversation he’d had elsewhere about the topic.
I don’t think one can make confident inferences about DJT’s intentions based on his words.
(To quote a hilarious affirmation (made with a straight face) by the Secretary of War: “the President doesn’t bluff”. If you have to say it …)
In a recent episode of “The Duran”, Robert Barnes used the phrase “confession through projection” to describe some of DJT’s language. The recent “time is on my side” statement may fall into this category — delay serves Iran’s interests more (or harms Iran’s interests less) than it serves/harms US’ interests. Prior statements such as “the Iranians are desperate to make a deal” seem likely to be of this character, too.
Iran does have the capability to make the territory of US allies in the region unliveable through conventional means (by collapsing electrical power generation/distribution and water desalination infrastructure).
It seems to me plausible that DJT’s language about destroying Iranian infrastructure to the point of collapsing the country could be DJT projecting onto himself a conventional capability that Iran does possess but US does not (Iran’s infrastructure being too extensive and US standoff munitions inventories too depleted).
This doesn’t mean that DJT’s language in that notorious instance definitely was projection — we don’t know — but the possibility that it may have been suggests to me that one can’t confidently infer anything from those words, other than that DJT was not pleased with the situation he found himself in.
Unfortunately, I think it may be a fool’s errand to attempt to infer any coherent plan or intention from DJT’s words. Taking hints from Michael Wolff’s interpretation, these utterances may simply be the overflow of how he is feeling at the moment he speaks.
like a pythia or sybill on acid and pcp at the same time.
we’re out here attempting to interpret the insane ramblings of a crazy man.
dude should be nowhere near any kind of power.
a nuthouse somewhere is lonesome for its hero.
WSJ being clear. Sorry I don’t know how to archive
Thanks. Working link:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/persian-gulf-oil-damage-will-ripple-long-past-the-end-of-the-war-845acf09?st=ks9obH&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Trump, 79, Falls Asleep After Bragging That He’s Solved Health Care – The president went to sleep during a White House event on health care affordability.
https://newrepublic.com/post/209453/trump-falls-asleep-white-house-health-care-event
Nato says US cannot suspend Spain from alliance, after reported Pentagon email
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz78x703lrvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
No 10 says Falklands sovereignty rests with UK after report of US ‘review’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde51y0zgjyo
Justice Department drops investigation into Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/justice-dept-drops-probe-federal-reserve-powell-rcna341876
Mish over at Mish Talk has a good writeup on the latest fold-o-rama from Trump:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/justice-department-ends-probe-of-fed-chair-jerome-powell-or-does-it/
Although Taco’s attack poodle (Pirro) got curbed, they left open the possibility of the IG doing an investigation, and what if Taco simply waits for Tillis to unblock the Warsh nomination? Then he could sic Pirro the Attack Poodle on poor Jerome again.
That’s the sort of treachery we’ve come to expect.
One thing that has been established about Trump is his urge to punish his enemies in vengeance, both present and former. In fact, at the the start of his Presidency it was established that they wanted to spend at least the first six months of it punishing Trump’s enemies. Jerome had better watch his back then.
If I were Tillis, I’d keep that nomination on ice. And if I were Jerome Powell, I’d hold off on doing a victory dance while setting a MAGA cap on fire at his final presser next week. Stick to the lawyer routine.
Just like the way they use negotiations as a pretext to murder Iranian/Hezbollah leaders, I can see Trump waiting for Warsh to get confirmed, then calling up the Attack Poodle ™ and unclipping her from the leash she’s on. Investigations can always be resumed …
Just the other day I was wondering why all the stories about Trump falling asleep in the middle of meetings disappeared. I can’t believe he’s stopped doing it.
But what does his sleeping during a meeting about affordable health care show? It could be a sign of his cognitive decline and wotnot, or it could just be that he doesn’t care about affordable health care, so long as he and his kind can afford it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-make-offer-aimed-satisfying-us-demands-trump-tells-reuters-2026-04-24/
I can only see the headline, but if DJT did say this to Reuters, it may be an example of what Robert Barnes has called “confession through projection”. It seems to me very unlikely that Iran will accede to US demands re: its nuclear program, its missile deterrent, its support for regional allies, its control of the Strait, etc., etc. and Iran does not seem to be in a hurry to end the conflict (while US probably is, DJT’s “time is on my side” remarks notwithstanding).
If DJT did say this, perhaps it is “confession through projection” — actually US is looking for ways to end the conflict by satisfying Iranian demands.
Perhaps this is an element of the Market response — when DJT says that Iran will cave, perhaps market actors infer that it means that DJT will cave, with beneficial consequences for US.
Hegseth Just Delivered a Slap in the Face to a Loyal Ally. The Implications Are Huge.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2026/04/iran-war-trump-hegseth-estonia-weapons-delay.html
Greece to be overtaken by Italy as euro zone’s most indebted country in 2026, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/greece-be-overtaken-by-italy-euro-zones-most-indebted-country-2026-sources-say-2026-04-23/
NATO eyes Swedish-Canadian jet for AWACS role in shift away from Boeing
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/04/24/nato-eyes-swedish-canadian-jet-for-awacs-role-in-shift-away-from-boeing/
Pope: World is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/16/pope-world-being-ravaged-by-handful-of-tyrants/
7 Indian Naval Ships Deployed Near Persian Gulf To Escort Indian Vessels From The Region
https://www.marineinsight.com/7-indian-naval-ships-deployed-near-persian-gulf-to-escort-indian-vessels-from-the-region/
US imposes sanctions on a China-based oil refinery and 40 shippers over Iranian oil
https://apnews.com/article/treasury-bessent-sanctions-china-iran-oil-12a02b5ba394cbcab355d645bfe9cdf7
Hegseth Just Delivered a Slap in the Face to a Loyal Ally. The Implications Are Huge.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called Estonia’s defense minister on Monday with some bad news: Because of its own needs in the war with Iran, the Pentagon would have to delay delivery of six units of a high-tech weapons system that Estonia had contracted to buy from the United States government.
…
First, the Pentagon’s civilian leader is telling a NATO ally—a tiny front-line nation whose military budget totals 5.4 percent of its GDP—that its defense needs to take a back seat to a war instigated by President Donald Trump, whose purpose has never been explained (in part because it has no real purpose).
Second, other allies, many of whom have been buying American-made weapons for decades, can infer from this slap in the face that they should start looking elsewhere, because the U.S. government cannot be relied on to keep its word—even when codified in a legal contract.
Poland Opens Investigation into Global Sumud Flotilla Attack; HRF Submits Critical Chain-of-Command Analysis
Iran negotiating team head Ghalibaf quits
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604245758
Canada approves Enbridge’s $4 billion natgas pipeline expansion
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-approves-4-billion-natural-gas-pipeline-expansion-2026-04-24/
Switzerland begins gradual reopening of embassy in Iran
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/switzerland-begins-gradual-reopening-of-embassy-in-iran/91311042
Businesses dole out up to $4 million to cross Panama Canal during Strait of Hormuz chokehold
https://apnews.com/article/panama-canal-trade-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war-middle-east-shipment-d6a2aa2a21f29bfdf313182e753e1c41
Democrats’ plan to impeach Trump on ‘day one’ after midterms
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2026/04/24/democrats-trump-impeach-midterms-supreme-court-iran/
A ‘silent war against scientists’? After US, scientists are mysteriously dying in China
https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/us-scientists-deaths-disappearances-china-whats-going-on-14003872.html
‘The damage is done’: global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry for ever, IEA chief says
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/24/global-oil-crisis-changed-fossil-fuel-industry-for-ever-iea-chief-fatih-birol
The two stooges go to Pakistan … what could possibly go wrong?
If the Iranians don’t bother turning up, then those two clowns could always check out the real estate opportunities. But not for the site of a Trump hotel. That would have target written all over it.
Palantir inks $300 million deal with USDA to safeguard food supply
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/palantir-inks-300-million-deal-with-usda-to-safeguard-food-supply.html
Trump resurrects calls to arrest Barack Obama, accuses him and others of ‘treason’ in late-night posts
https://thegrio.com/2026/04/24/trump-calls-to-arrest-barack-obama-accuses-him-of-treason/
Trump Sued Over Alarming Memo Allowing Officials to Delete Records
https://newrepublic.com/post/209510/trump-sued-white-house-memo-delete-records
Hmmm. A GBU-39 bunker-buster type was defused in central Iran where it had struck a residential home-
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/24/3574029/american-bunker-buster-bomb-defused-in-central-iran
A chance at some reverse engineering? Maybe selling it off to China or Russia afterwards?
Why Mfg rubbish gear mate ….
It takes a big plane with huge logistical dramas, Mfg based on congressional zone disbursements all over the nation, and the whole chain that supports it is vulnerable to drones/missile attacks.
Supply chain disruptions.
https://realclearwire.com/articles/2026/04/22/americas_ai_advantage_runs_into_trouble_in_the_strait_of_hormuz_1178127.html