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Iran War: US Pokes Iran in the Eye with Immediate Bad Faith Dealing Over Ceasefire; Strait of Hormuz Again Closed; US Insists Talks in Pakistan On but Iran Demands Halt in Lebanon Attacks

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[This Iran war post launched before complete because reasons. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browsers then for a final version]

So the much-ballyhooed US/Israel ceasefire with Iran collapsed in less than 24 hours because it was yet another deception by the belligerents. The key immediate effect is that Iran has actually said is has closed the Strait of Hormuz, as opposed to before saying the Strait was open with conditions, and then correctly pointing to ship operator fears and war risk insurance availability and cost as the main impediment.1

For the Trump side, this will be a Pyrrhic victory. His ruse succeeded in getting oil prices down yet again due to the prospect of a resumption of something like old normal levels of Strait of Hormuz traffic in the not-too-distant future.

But Trump is missing the real stakes: what will be dispositive, and in not all that long, is actual physical supplies and not market action. This week is about the time when the last round of tankers and cargo ships that had left the Gulf before the war reach the US and Europe, meaning that the supply shortfall will start to actualize.

And as readers well know, Trump fixation of oil and gas prices obscures the impact of how the steep fall in other commodities that come out of the Persian Gulf will lead to more price hikes and shortages.

But even that belief was the result of Trump abjectly misrepresenting what Iran had agreed to, as we discussed longer-form yesterday.

The Trump Administration, true to form, doubled down on lying, with JD Vance and others maintaining that having Israel cease operations in Lebanon was never part of the deal. The Janta Ka clip below not only recounts how Israel launched its most savage air strikes against Lebanon ever, of 100 missiles in 10 minutes, killing over 182 as of recent reports, but also has none other than the White House’s pet Middle East stenographer, Barak Ravid, effectively calling out the falsehood.

This section from Ravid in a CNN video starts at about 8:20:

Well, I think it’s not only the Iranians. problem is that the Pakistani prime minister when he announced the ceasefire he made it clear that Lebanon was part of the deal, which raises the question of what happened there in the negotiations if the main mediator says that Lebanon is part of the deal. I know that the Egyptian mediators and the Turkish mediators see it the same way, that Lebanon is part of this deal.

Yesterday uh shortly before Trump announced a ceasefire he called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who sort of lost control of the process and was very nervous about this ceasefire and during that call when Trump told him listen I’m going to agree to a ceasefire with Iran, Netanyahu told him but what about Lebanon we want to continue fighting. And Trump told Netanyahu, no problem you can continue fighting Lebanon is not part of this deal. So this was something that was agreed upon before the announcement of the ceasefire, it was agreed upon between Israel and the US. I heard it from both Israeli officials and US officials. And US officials told me today …

And US officials told me today that they’re not concerned about this those Iranian threats to withdraw from the negotiations or to uh close again the straight of Hormuz because of the situation in Lebanon. They think it will be solved and and it’s not going to be a reason for the agreement to collapse.

Other sources confirm the Iranian view:

And now, the 5×7 glossies:

Given that, I don’t understand how Larry Johnson gives Trump the benefit of the doubt via a headline like, Trump Got Played by Israel… And the Game Continues. It is not as if Bibi went out on his own and presented Trump with a fait accompli. Trump was totally on board.

Note also that both the French foreign secretary to the EU and the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas have both said Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has condemned all ceasefire violations. Consistent with these statements, the current lead story at the Financial Times:

White House spokescreature Karoline Leavitt made clear that Trump in fact has no interest in considering Iranian requirements:

Moreover, per AlJazeera’s live feed as of 7:00 AM EDT, Netanyahu just disputed a claim by JD Vance, that Israel would dial down its attacks on Lebanon to facilitate negotiations. Duh. Israel wants no negotiations:

Netanyahu says Israel will strike Hezbollah ‘wherever necessary’
The Israeli prime minister says Israel would keep hitting Hezbollah “wherever necessary”, a day after deadly Israeli strikes pummelled Lebanon.

“We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with force, precision, and determination,” Netanyahu said on his personal X account.

“Our message is clear: anyone who acts against Israeli civilians – we will strike them. We will continue to hit Hezbollah wherever necessary, until we fully restore security to the residents of the north” of Israel, he added.

So it should also come as no surprise, as the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament noted above, that the US smartly repudiated another position that Iran views as essential, namely the right to enrichment. As reported by The Hill: Trump: There will be no enrichment of uranium in Iran. Trump has later said Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, but it appears he sees any enrichment as tantamount to weapons development.

Similarly, there is ample evidence of continuing attacks on Iran…

And per Reuters (hat tip Ann) Iranian Oil Refining Company confirms attack on Lavan refinery.

….which led to Iran to launch new strikes against Gulf states:

And Trump is again making threats:

Yet bizarrely, even though Foreign Minister Araghchi signaled that these violations might scupper the talks set for Saturday:

But the Aljazeera live feed, in a 5:00 AM EDT entry, said that Iran has “confirmed its arrival” for the talks in Islamabad set to start on Saturday.

I do not understand the Iranian forbearance given the joke of a negotiating team the US is sending. Per Bloomberg:

US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Vice President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, which would include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Is an Iranian sense of amour propre at work, that having said they would meet, they will honor that commitment? That perhaps they even see an opportunity to make it even more clear to the global community that the US is the bad actor here? Or is this to continue to placate China?

Despite what look like concessions on process (continuing to talk with a recidivist cheat), Iran is not backing down on substance:

As of 7:00 AM EDT, the landing page at Bloomberg:

And an entry three hours earlier in its live feed:

Despite rhetorical exchanges between the warring sides, there were signs the ceasefire agreement was largely holding, with a notable decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

There were no reports of strikes from Arab Gulf nations for much of Wednesday, with the last major attack taking place on a key oil pipeline carrying crude to Saudi Arabia’s western coast.

On the “What is the status of the Strait of Hormuz” front, Sal Mercagliano’s latest:

Even Mercogliano’s misperceptions are revealing, in that they may be widely shared, including critically, within the Administration. He repeats the idea that the Iranian navy has been destroyed, which is at best exaggerated (the US did blow up some ships, but some were not even operating) and totally misses that this “navy” was never the main vector for closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has fast surface boats, per Professor Seyed Marandi, still stored safely underground, surface drones, underwater drones, and projectiles it can launch from a vast array of caves along its coast. US combat vet Stanislav Krapivnik has pointed out that a pickup truck with kids could operate drones well behind the cliffs and take out ships.

These bulk carriers are the ones Mercogliano mentions as just making transits….all from Iranian ports:

Mercogliano also cleared his throat to point out that the US does import oil and petroleum products from the Gulf and will not be as unaffected as Trump professes.

The IRCG has upped the ante by saying it mined the Strait of Hormuz, apparently so as to force carriers to go through Iran’s territorial waters and be inspected and pay tolls if deemed necessary. Mind you, Iran does not actual have to have deployed mines. The threat is enough to deter carriers from taking a chance. From AlJazeera’s live feed:

IRGC issues map to help ships avoid mines in Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has released a map portraying alternate shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz for ships to avoid naval mines, according to local media reports.

The circle on the map below is labelled an “area of danger”. The IRGC Navy says ships must coordinate with them to avoid naval mines.

Tankers that used to pass close to Oman, which is in the south of the Strait, are now being told to take a more northerly route, closer to the Iranian coast.


Alternative routes through the Strait of Hormuz announced by Iran’s IRGC [Screengrab/Al Jazeera]

Mercogliano was exercised about the latest iteration of the Iranian toll plan, arguing that it is against international law. Ahem, if international law mattered, the US and Israel would not have launched a war against Iran and be openly engaging in war crimes, nor would Israel be able to keep engaging in genocide, ethnic cleansing, and assassinations of diplomats. The US decided to pursue the raw exercise of power and is now finding out that two can play that game.

The Financial Times, in an exclusive story, presented what the Iran plans are. Note I would not place a huge amount of weight on details since the Iranians appear to be working through how to manage this process. However, even if they do prevail and regularize their process, the article indicates that will take a lot of manpower to check ships when needed (often?) which then raises doubts about how many could transit per day in a best-case scenario. Key points from Iran demands crypto fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire:

Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire.

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the FT on Wednesday that Iran wanted to collect tolling fees from any tanker passing and to assess each ship…..

“Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” he added…

Before the [post-ceasefire] halt Hosseini said that any tanker passing must email authorities about its cargo, after which Iran will inform them of the toll to be paid in digital currencies.

He said that the tariff is $1 per barrel of oil, adding that empty tankers can pass freely.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” Hosseini added.

Tankers in the Gulf on Wednesday received a radio broadcast that warned they would be targeted with military strikes unless they first gained approval from Iranian authorities….

Western ship owners said on Wednesday they were taking a cautious approach while waiting for details on how and whether the strait might reopen, with no vessels currently braving the transit apart from two linked to Iran.

Maersk, the world’s second biggest shipping line, said it is “working with urgency” to clarify the terms…

Ali Shihabi, a commentator close to the Saudi royal court, said the kingdom would demand “unimpeded” access to global markets…

Around 175mn barrels of crude and refined products are currently loaded on to 187 tankers in the Gulf, according to Kpler data — which could now start to move, depending on what happens in the strait…

Several traders said they thought the situation in the coming days would resemble the system that has developed over the past fortnight, in which a handful of ships that have been approved by Iran are allowed to pass on a specific route.

During the conflict this was largely limited to vessels that had generally done business with Iran and that were not connected to the US, Israel or Gulf states that had provided staging for attacks.

Martin Kelly, head of advisory at maritime intelligence group EOS Risk, said that there was “no way” that the backlog of ships waiting to get out could be cleared in two weeks.

Around 10 to 15 ships might be able to transit the strait per day as the process was “quite time-consuming”, he said, down from 135 ships before the war.

And the economic damage grows, some Asian currencies are coming under serious pressure (note this segment posted before the ceasefire fell apart):2

And per Nikkei in Southeast Asian street food sellers hit by soaring packaging costs:

For Tresnayati, an Indonesian traditional cake maker from Sidoarjo, East Java, the effects of the war in Iran are very real. The plastic wrapping sheets she uses for her products have more than doubled in price from 9,000 rupiah ($0.53) to 19,000 rupiah for a pack of 50….

Tresnayati is one of the millions of small food vendors in Southeast Asia facing this challenge. Spikes in the price of ingredients, fuel, and, not least, packaging are eating into their thin margins. Few feel able to raise prices. And the recently announced ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely to provide imminent relief, according to analysts…

Asia usually sources 60% to 70% of its naphtha from the Gulf, Lee Toong Shien, deputy head of Asian petrochemicals pricing at Argus Media, told Nikkei.

The disruption to that flow is rippling through the supply chain, starting with the factories, known as crackers, that turn naphtha into plastic feedstocks like ethylene and propylene. Two in Singapore and one each in South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan have already declared force majeure.

“All naphtha crackers in Asia are reducing operating rates because of this, with some declaring force majeure. Others have issued a letter warning of potential force majeure soon if this war is prolonged,” said Lee.

Some suppliers are proving more resilient. China is “grabbing market share” in the region said Lee, as their crackers are often able to use a wider range of feedstocks, such as propane, ethane, and in some cases coal or methanol.

A handful of big companies like Malaysia’s Petronas, Thailand’s PTTGC, and India’s Reliance ex-China are also relatively shielded for now, added Lee. They have their own gas fields and can also crack ethane, which mainly comes from the U.S., to make plastic feedstocks.

Not surprisingly, from NO1:

And from Chuck L, a more-topical-than-it-might-seem further indicator of Trump Administration insanity:

Done for now! See you tomorrow!
___

1 Iran’s announcement of an actual closure is an escalation that commentators and officials seem to have missed.

2 The Thai baht fell from elevated levels and is still comfortably within recent ranges.

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313 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    People have nicknamed Trump TACO as Trump Always Chickens out. I think that another sobriquet might be added as in TAR – Trump Always Reneges. The terms about Lebanon being included in that 10 point peace plan were explicit and underlined by the Pakistanis. And yet Trump and Netanyahu are lying their faces off as this being untrue – just before Bibi launched a massacre in Beirut again. And as far as J D Vance being involved in future negotiations, it is extremely doubtful now as not only did he say that Lebanon was not included, but that this was a misunderstanding on Iran’s part. If nothing else, this will convince the Iranians that negotiations with the Americans is pointless as any agreements will be broken before the ink is even dry on them. And so the war will go on.

    1. Christopher Mann

      I’m starting to think that there is a major cultural defect where lying has been normalized in the West. the historian Herodotus, praised the Persians for valuing truthfulness above all other virtues, regarding lying as the most disgraceful action. The Western leadership are simply degenerate, debased and lacking morality. DJT is the embodiment of what we are. Vulgar, lying, deceitful, greedy, spiteful children. We need a good slapping.

      1. Randall Flagg

        >I’m starting to think that there is a major cultural defect where lying has been normalized in the West

        Exhibit A: Our Politicians and political system, nobody ever held accountable.
        Exhibit B: most advertising in the Us today.

        1. Orphan

          I agree, but would add that IMHO it’s not a new or even recent development. The absurdity of Western Colonialism is much more apparent in the modern world.

          The lies have to get bigger to keep the system “working”.

          1. stickNmud

            IMHO, “obscenity” is a better fit than “absurdity” to describe the past five-plus centuries of Western Colonialism. The Portuguese were the first to colonize islands off the coast of Africa beginning in 1420, and their actions on Madeira may have created the model for rapacious boom and bust capitalism.

            https://daily.jstor.org/madeira-the-island-that-helped-invent-capitalism/

            The Spanish conquistadors, who like the Portuguese were Catholic, proclaimed their conquests in the New World for ‘God and gold’. But like the Portuguese, they did share their religion, and often intermarried with indigenous peoples that they conquered.

            The Protestants, who came later, such as the English Pilgrims in the Plymouth Colony, and the Dutch in Island Southeast Asia and South Africa (the Boers)– not so much.

        2. Giovanni Barca

          Most? Advertising is lying or at best distraction. Funny frogs and lizards and a ferret to sell horrible beer. An emu skydiving to sell insurance. And propagandistic sideswipes promoting online subscription everything over the posession of tangible things (especially music media, cd’s and vinyl)–in ads that have nothing to do with music or its media. (Another insurance ad.) Creation of norms by acting as if the novelty is and ever has been the norm (“listen on the cloud like normal people”). The trade paper’s name might be a synonym for the Rule of Ahriman (the ancient Persian devil, the Lie)–Advertising Age. We are all smothered in Bernays sauce.

      2. Louis Fyne

        >>’m starting to think that there is a major cultural defect where lying has been normalized in the West

        “Ask for forgiveness, not permission” has infested every corner of elite activity—both parties, corporations breaking self-evident regulations (see Uber/jitney laws, Tesla/state dealer laws)

        Pretty sure that today’s America tops terminal-state Roman Republic—thanks to a combo of decade+ of easy money, self-enrichment via equity dilution of passive investors, media/voters who only care about culture war litmus tests, etc

      3. .Tom

        I agree for the most part. There is the weird exception that exposes the veneer of decency the political class maintains to conceal what you describe. Sometimes Trump tells the truth, really big important truths that nobody else would dare to say. For example, who else would say that the House of Saud gets to murder and dismember Jamal Khashoggi in their Istanbul consulate without consequences because they buy so much American-made weaponry?

      4. Steve H.

        They are not children. They are monsters. See the Henry Abbott interview on Epstein network posted in Links comments.

        1. ISL

          On one episode of the original Star Trek, the Enterprise encountered a child with god-like powers who acted amorally as it “plays” with the crew, until its parents came around and put things back to right. But you are right: these are adults who know what is evil and choose it – I often think that the Israeli’s started with the WW2 holocaust as in need of “improvement” – the Germans pretended they were not genociders.

      5. lyman alpha blob

        Also according to Herodotus, the Persians also had a tradition of getting drunk, making as decision, then sobering up before acting to see if the decision still seemed like a good idea. And vice versa. Only if they agreed drunk and sober would they act. Too bad Trump’s a teetotaler.

        1. erstwhile

          Trump gets drunk on trump. As a consequence, he is never sober as most people would think of sobriety; he is always full of himself, and he is a serious toxin.

      6. hunkerdown

        Hero cults are also lying cults, according to Graeber. Lying contests are the basis of Western civilization, going all the way back to the Athenian drama contests that were the center of civic life. If we normalize kinetic action against liars, from the grand to the petty, the problem can be stopped, but property owners (and their capitals) are hardly motivated to find Truth, only in perpetually performatively seeking…

        1. ArvidMartensen

          I was unfortunately associated with a family for a few years that believe that treachery, successfully carried out, is an indicator of intelligence and savvy, and to be admired. Charm was one of their weapons.

          The only family member who prospered in the real world was able to dial this down quite a bit, kept the charm but ditched the treachery.
          But the rest, as adults, (big family) never learnt that treachery against friends and partners isn’t a good idea. So they live alone and mostly shunned.

          Unfortunately charm + treachery seems to be rewarded in crime and politics. So we end up with Trump and his hangers on. Family culture leaves a lasting mark, especially on inherently stupid people.

          When they congregate together, they survive for a while but then the group disintegrates from the treachery.

      7. Martina

        They are not liars. They are bullshitters.They don’t care about the truth. They don’t care if they are caught lying.

        See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bullshit :

        Frankfurt was a professional philosopher, trained in analytical philosophy. When asked why he decided to focus on bullshit, he explained:

        Respect for the truth and a concern for the truth are among the foundations for civilization. I was for a long time disturbed by the lack of respect for the truth that I observed … bullshit is one of the deformities of these values.

        On Bullshit addresses his concern and makes a distinction between “bullshitters” and liars. He concludes that bullshitters are more insidious: they are more of a threat against the truth than are liars.

      8. Screwball

        I was just told yesterday only the red team are liars. I guess George Constanza was right – it’s not a lie if you believe it.

        This is where we are. Both sides of this ugly coin has way to many people who still listen and believe these walking talking BS machines.

      9. Quintian and Lucius

        It’s not just lying. There is no moral (or intellectual, really; when these cretins have any intellect or learning it’s mostly an accident) virtue which is remotely cultivated in our ostensible betters here in the Imperial States, and the idea that such virtues ought be cultivated is laughable to them. Plato was defeated by Ayn familyblogging Rand.

        1. Lyman alpha blob

          I’d argue that Plato and Rand have a lot in common. John Galt as philosopher king. Plato did love a strongman, as long as they were properly groomed.

      10. YPG

        It’s worse than lying. It’s Bullsh•••ing, as per Harry Frankfurt’s definition. They don’t even care about what’s true. I do think that the US has largely become a nation of BS-ers.

      11. John k

        Yes. I recall some eu pol saying ‘when the truth won’t do, you have to lie’.
        I guess that’s just assumed now by most western pols. The 2 and 2nd Minsk accords were never intended to be honored, just buy time to build up Ukraine forced/defenses. And just like pledges re nato expansions, ‘not one kilometer further east’.

      12. Alphonse

        Lying has been normalized. I am still shocked by this. Intuitively I feel that this is a fundamental injury. It undermines social capital and the psychological stability of liars.

        I may sound old-fashioned. I hope so. My impression is that the transition occurred with the generation prior to mine, the boomers. I don’t see dishonesty routinely elevated to heroism in black and white films the way it is in later movies. I would not be surprised if an analysis of modern film would find that there is a positive correlation between lying and portrayed heroism.

        The worst lies are those we tell ourselves. How to negotiate with a man like Mr Trump who cannot face himself honestly? A man who lives by lies would rather let the world burn than see the truth. We think we suffer from an epidemic of narcissism. What is a narcissist but a man who lies to himself?

        No wonder people are so reliant on external validation. They obsess on the identity they lack. Identity is not a label: it is coherence, a feeling that that need not be and cannot be put into words. It is the knowledge that you stand for something and the confidence that you have the strength to face conflict, to overcome it and to survive failure. A liar who has not developed this virtue is prone to resort to violence when his lies don’t work.

        This goes directly to the crisis of masculinity (though I believe it applies to women too). An honest man, a man’s word is his bond: these are not oppression. They are the foundation of self-contained dignity that has no need to control others. They are the path to liberation.

        So too at scales large and small. Our “be kind” civilization demands lies, calls them “nice.” It punishes truth tellers. An empire of lies is an empire of violence. Trump is in a sense a gift, a glimpse in the mirror. What he says is dishonest, but who he is is honest: an unconcealed avatar of the society at large. I often think his enemies hate him so much because subconsciously they realize how much they are alike.

        1. Lyman alpha blob

          He’s the funhouse mirror version of the elites who despise him and they do not like what they see.

      1. AG

        thanks

        Palantir has gained foothold in Germany too by now
        it would be so easy for MSM to point at Palantir´s true agenda
        I don´t get this incompetence by media people…but maybe it´s simply a new brainwashed generation

        after the smearing campaign against Hersh in 2023 by his own it had become clear that something fundamental had undeniably changed

    4. pjay

      The role of Vance is both interesting and puzzling. He has been widely portrayed as the one reasonable voice in the Trump administration by the mainstream press, especially in that influential NY Times “behind the scenes” article a few days ago. He was also reportedly the one administration official trusted enough by Iran to engage in negotiations (maybe they read the Times story). Yet his public statements continue to back administration lies. I saw a clip of him telling a ridiculous tall tale about three versions of Iran’s 10-point proposal. The first was the one supposedly “thrown in the trash.” The second was, according to Vance, the “reasonable” version that the administration reacted to positively – which no one else to my knowledge has seen! The third version of the 10-point plan was another “maximalist” list that some rando or Iranian propagandist supposedly posted on the internet. This last is apparently the one everyone has been reading and circulating, which includes Lebanon! I guess the Pakistani PM read it too!

      That was Vance’s ridiculous story. As Larry Johnson said in the clip I saw, he just stood there in front of reporters and made up these boldface lies, apparently following the Donald Trump Rules regarding public statements to the press.

      1. tet vet

        JD Vance is trained as a lawyer. Lawyers don’t lie, they advocate for their client. Trump is JD’s client.
        Understand that we are the most over-lawyer/litigated civilization in history by orders of magnitude and you understand why we have lost the ability to understand the definition of “to lie”.

          1. Giovanni Barca

            And then the unemployed lawyers can all be given hammers to destroy the data centers and thereby AI

    6. motorslug

      “The compulsion to lie when literally everyone knows you are lying is the defining political pathology of our time…”
      — Jeffrey St Clair, 02/2024

    7. XXYY

      If nothing else, this will convince the Iranians that negotiations with the Americans is pointless as any agreements will be broken before the ink is even dry on them.

      This has been obviously true for decades or centuries, yet no one dealing with the US seems to want to see it or accept it. I find it very strange. Can a country that’s completely and consistently dishonest continue to participate in politics and commerce with other countries? I would have guessed the answer is “no,” but it seems to be “yes” for the most part.

      Can someone who consistently defaults on their loans, or continually cheats at cards, continue to get loans or play cards with others?

      I don’t like to think it, but perhaps honesty is a quality that actually doesn’t matter at all at the end of the day. Seems like a fruitful area of psychological research, if it isn’t already.

  3. HH

    War reveals the truth. We will soon have an answer to the tail/dog question regarding the relationship of Israel to the U.S. We will also see if crashing the world economy works to the benefit of Israel.

    1. The Rev Kev

      If the world economy crashed, I do not think that the Israelis would be worried. They know that the US will always protect them and give them whatever they need – and they would be right.

      1. flora

        “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
        – Herbert Stein, American economist.

        True then, true now. / ;)

      2. Kouros

        But the Americans import lots of their own things, including things needed for weaponry…

  5. Alan Sutton

    Yves, Rev Kev and everyone else…

    This is all obvious craziness. Only yesterday Trump announces the acceptance or “consideration” of Iran’s 10 point plan which was, basically, a surrender document for him to sign.

    The markets loves it. Oil goes below $105 a barrel. Stock market rallies.

    The SAME DAY Israel bomb the shit out of Lebanon. Civilian targets, mind you.

    Ceasefire over. War back on again.

    All crazy.

    Iran needs to destroy Israeli power plants, desal plants. Everything.

    If there is no more “land based aircraft carrier” in the region there will be no more anything to worry about.

    This is getting boring and repetitive. Israel needs to be told goodbye as well as any US force projections ability.

    I suppose the Iranians are a bit worried about Zionist nukes but they must know where they are? Or do they?

    If they do, get rid of them.

    Time to stop messing about.

    1. John Wright

      Joe Biden described that Israel is America’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier”.

      Joe’s implication was that this is a feature, not a bug.

      Perhaps a better description is that Israel is America’s “run aground aircraft carrier, that is now a fixed target”.

    2. flora

      an aside: sometimes I wonder if Charlie Kirk was killed because he was against a war with Iran, or as a warning to any US pols who might be against a war with Iran.

  6. .Tom

    > The Trump Administration, true to form, doubled down on lying, with JD Vance and others maintaining that having Israel cease operations in Lebanon was never part of the deal. The Janta Ka clip below not only recounts how Israel launched its most savage air strikes against Lebanon ever, of 100 missiles in 10 minutes, killing over 182 as of recent reports…

    We could hear that bombing in real time during Laith Marouf’s live stream with Nima yesterday. Yikes. Otherwise I thought it was interesting for the regional political details although by now I guess it’s a bit behind the news overall.

  7. ventzu

    Do you give any credence to the view that there has been a Venezuela-style coup in Iran, with “moderates” taking charge, as the “hard-liners” have been eradicated by missile strikes. This could explain why the Supreme Leader has not been seen – that he is in fact incapacitated, but the “moderates” are using “his” written words as a means of exercising control over the IRGC?

    I hope this is not the case, but Iran’s lack of kinetic response whilst Lebanon is being pounded is not a good look.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      No, this is nuts. The Strait would not have been closed again if so and Iran would not be acting as if it has mined it (it may not have but the threat is potent). That is an escalation on the issue that matters most to the US. Iran before never said the Strait was closed. It said ship owner caution and insurance were the big reasons, It now has said it will attack unapproved ships that try to go through the Strait.

      The IRCG is in charge, FFS.. How can “moderates” stand up to the military?

      You may not have seen the latest version of the post but China pushed Iran to talk after Trump effectively threatened nuclear war (that is Daniel Davis’ reading although Douglas Macgregor begged to differ).

      1. Will

        For what it’s worth, Prof Marandi on Glenn Diesen yesterday cast doubt on the China pressure story when asked by Diesen. Starting at 35:40

        https://youtu.be/4JLpmWX_Eu8?si=lE0_nMFK6zmcwWaE

        Note, he doesn’t say he’s heard from sources it’s false, just that he personally doubts it’s true. Instead, he thinks Iran was willing to accept ceasefire and negotiations because Trump agreed to Iran’s 10 points and abandoned his own 15 point plan. I think everyone agreed that Trump accepting Iran’s position was effectively announcing his surrender. Prof Marandi continued by saying Iran accepted all this under no illusions and is prepared to continue the war if Trump reneges.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          The timeline does not work

          Iran had said it was not negotiating with the US directly or indirectly. They had even stopped taking any communications at all.

          That had changed in order for them to entertain a ceasefire and say what they needed for that to happen.

          That had to have been due to an outside intervention. Iran had shut down lines of communication.

    2. Ignacio

      If you want to provide and/or ask opinions about some supposed “view” provide at least a source. If not, this looks pretty much like making shit up. Unwelcome with all the rest of shit already being vented around.

        1. hemeantwell

          Applause! Thanks for all of your work, Yves, including operating the bilge pumps.

          1. TimH

            Endorsed. The adults-only requirements for comments has stopped me multiple times from making a comment that doesn’t add value.

      2. pjay

        I agree that this view is nuts. But in fairness, it is floating around the internet. I’m not sure whether the source or sources are Western propagandists, sincere but delusional “liberals,” or actual supporters of Iran who are frustrated that the Iranians would agree to “negotiations” at all and so posit a coup by moderates.

        That said, if the poster’s original question of credence was actually sincere: yes, it’s nuts.

        1. motorslug

          You really can’t coup in a country where tens of thousands rally daily and form human chains around important buildings in support of those currently in charge.

        1. Ignacio

          Then it looks is this Miller the one making shit up. Per both links provided. I wouldn’t trust any Western professor or ex-professor acting as if a partisan of some presumed Iranian political current as defined by him. He might be inventing political divisions which do not reflect realities on the ground. And if you ask me, the British are amongst those with less credibility these days.

          1. pjay

            Miller was actually one of the posts reflecting this view that I had seen. I believe he has a long-standing reputation as a strong critic of Israel and Zionism, so I would probably put him in my third category: an Iran supporter who is frustrated that the Iranians would “negotiate” at all with enemies who are completely untrustworthy.

            This is an emotionally understandable but completely unrealistic position given the situation. I’m sure the Iranians are aware of the “agreement incapability” of the US and Israel and will proceed accordingly. Even a slim chance for a real agreement is preferable to mutual destruction. Miller’s condemnation of Araghchi is pretty extreme, though I’ve seen it elsewhere. It reminds me of commentators like Paul Craig Roberts who have been calling on Russia to obliterate Ukraine for four years now and accuse Putin of selling out because he hasn’t done so. Such ideas may be emotionally cathartic for bloggers and tweeters, but these leaders have to function in the real world.

          2. Yalt

            This might be relevant, posted this morning by a presumably better-informed source who falls in pjay’s third category:

            Middle East Spectator — MES
            — As expected, President Pezeshkian and the reformist lobby are pushing very hard for the meeting in Pakistan to take place, and to give Israel more time to be ‘pressured diplomatically’ to respect the ceasefire in Lebanon.

            It seems they still haven’t learned.

            (Of course, Pezeshkian is only the face, not the actual root of the problem. He doesn’t have the IQ or influence.)

            So a faction, perceived to be a “problem,” which has some influence but is certainly not in control. That seems a much better fit to the facts and it’s very very far from a Venezuela situation.

    3. Safety First

      I suspect it is much more likely that the Chinese are desperate to have some kind of a diplomatic outcome and a frozen conflict, and as the buyers of ~90% of Iran’s oil exports, they have a say in the process.

      From Iran’s standpoint the play would be to show that the US is not agreement-capable, thus getting the Chinese to back off. Which is one interpretation of what the Iranians are currently doing – government leaders, Pezeshkian himself being the latest, establishing a clear red line, with the foreknowledge that the US will violate it and the conflict will be back on. The only question to me is – do they go so far as to actually meet with Twiddle Dumb and Twiddle Dumber in Islamabad, or will things break down beforehand. I am guessing the former, but who knows, we still have at least 24 hours to go…

      Incidentally, insofar as China’s inconsistent diplomacy, Neutrality Studies had a Chinese professor on a week or two ago who basically claimed that its foreign policy is split between two disparate factions – the “political”, which understands the need to support Iran, and the “economic”, which worries more about China’s investments into the Gulf states and Israel, as well as refiner profits and such. [China literally told its private refiners to operate at a loss by capping internal product prices only a day or two ago.]

      1. hemeantwell

        Presumably Israel’s attack on China’s rail line to Iran will lead to some convergence between the “political” and the “economic” perspectives, assuming one exists at all when it comes to China’s understanding of Iran’s strategic importance.

        1. The Rev Kev

          Israel might be worried about military equipment arriving from China by rail. This disruption will be a disaster as we all know that the Chinese know nothing about logistics and delivery systems.

          1. thoughtfulperson

            I’ve not found any other post on the Israeli attack on the Chinese rail line in Iran (it appears from the graphic). Of course MSM has been notoriously slow to report damages, but I’d imagine we’d hear something from Iran by now?

          2. t

            we all know that the Chinese know nothing about logistics and delivery systems.

            If the woman across from me in the OBGYN waiting room has early labor from the shock of me suddenly, out of nowhere, laughing loudly, it’s on you, Rev.

            1. Oregon Lawhobbit

              “OBGYN” and “delivery systems.”

              I see what you did there….. ;-)

              I think that experience in UKR/RUS has shown that “taking out” railways is not all that long-lastingly effective. Maybe if you catch it with a train on it it could be worth something – and I can imagine loitering drones would be of some value for that – but otherwise….

      2. JohnH

        Kharg Island was attacked a couple days ago. I haven’t seen any assessments of damage to export operations. However, it may have helped prompt the closure of the Strait. Trumps seems to be sending a warning to China not to count on Iranian oil export capability. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/kharg-island-under-attack-irans-crown-jewel-targeted-in-fresh-us-strikes/ar-AA20kbNB

        Iran has export capabilities outside the Gulf, but I don’t know what the current loading rates are.

      3. ISL

        My view is that China takes the long view, and since oil from the middle east is only 1-2% of their energy balance*, and the US plans a war with China over Taiwan in the near future, China is doing what is in their long term interest – the attrition of US military power, the development of solutions for US advanced munitions and airframes, and ensuring the US is being kicked out of West Asia – NOT the next quarter profits or this year’s growth rate (No rare earths to the US).

        To argue that China will not accept short-term pain for long-term gain is to ignore China’s history. Also, recall the original point of GDP was to assess a nation’s ability to conduct war relative to other nations – it’s the relative that is my point. If your enemy hurts more, you are winning.

        —

        *”In reality, however, China is 85 percent energy self-sufficient. While China imports more than 10 percent of its global oil total from Iran, its energy supply has long been diversified internationally and electrified domestically to avoid critical dependence on any single source. Beijing has built a cushion against a short-term supply shock from a war in the Middle East.”

        – and this is from the fairly neo-con
        https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/how-does-the-iran-war-affect-chinas-energy-security/

        3. Yves Smith Post author

          If China thought that, it was not thinking clearly.

          1. Southeast Asia is China’s biggest export market. It is rapidly going tits up.

          2. Europe is about to go into the crapper now that pre-war tanker shipments have just ended. Europe is now a bigger export destination for China than the US.

          3. As analyst Jeff Currie stressed in his important paper, A Crude Awakening, looking at the amount of oil or energy per unit of GDP is the wrong way to think about the problem. Even though oil import value relative to GDP has generally fallen, many uses of oil (plastics, lubricants) are essential. Shortages or cost increases have a disproportionate impact.

      4. the stuttering negotiator

        This leads me to believe that, while kinetic warfare tends to lag behind economic considerations, we must not lose sight of the military and intelligence support China may have provided to Tehran, and the role this may play in the alleged diplomatic pressure.

        Alexander Mercuris, for example, has pointed out that the precision of the attacks on U.S. bases in the Gulf would likely not have been possible without the help of satellite imagery provided by China and/or Russia. Which leads me to ask precisely this: How decisive has this type of assistance been for Iran’s military objectives?

    4. Socal Rhino

      He has been seen. This “we don’t know who in charge in Iran” is propaganda.

      The reverse is a better question: who is in charge in the US? Trump? Bibi?

      1. The Rev Kev

        Lindsey Graham has been called the Foreign Policy President of the United States – and with good reason.

        1. Carolinian

          Who says Carolinians have no clout!

          Still I prefer to blame everything on NYC, home of
          Don Trump.

          1. Rod

            Now you know it’s long held and spoken often about the asylum that is politics and politicians in the great south state.
            Ms Lyndsey carrying on the tradition…keep the cane out of his reach.
            In my piedmont opinion…

          2. Pat

            As a NYer, I resent that. I do accept that Trump should have been prosecuted for various crimes as a developer and builder and his corporate shenanigans decades ago, by city, state or the feds. But then I know for a fact that anything like that was kept off the table for all the big names, and even some of the not so big. (Really look at what took out Eliot Spitzer, and remember when he left the AG’s office in NY, all of the financial shenanigans they were investigating and even beginning to prosecute were brought to an end by his successor little Andy Cuomo.)
            The truth is that it doesn’t matter where they are from, 99.9% of our political class are bought and paid for, and even part of the 0.1% that aren’t directly on the payroll are wealthy enough they are just protecting themselves and their friends.

      3. Polar Socialist

        I think it was Bruno Maçães who amused that Iran seems to be governed by a multitude of elected and unelected committees and it’s really hard to say who is actually in command while USA is governed by the moods of a one man – guess which one is depicted as an autocracy and which one as a democracy…?

    5. Will

      Real hard to take this seriously when Trump admitted very early on that the bombing had killed the moderates who they thought might be open to working with the U.S.

  8. johnnyme

    Fuel crisis pushes Madagascar into energy emergency

    Madagascar has declared a two-week nationwide state of energy emergency as severe fuel shortages threaten electricity generation and essential public services, the presidency announced on Wednesday.

    Madagascar’s government said the emergency declaration grants it authority to stabilise the power sector, manage consumption and safeguard critical services.

    It did not specify the measures to be implemented but indicated that the priority is to prevent further disruption to electricity and water supply systems.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Makes sense that poorer, island nations would take the first hit.

      Philippines, you got next?

    2. Polar Socialist

      It behooves to mention that there was a coup in Madagaskar last year, and the new regime is somewhat francophobic and russophilic. They are making noises about closer ties with Russia and BRICS, and Russia has already shipped humanitarian and military aid to the island.

  10. Tom Stone

    If there was any question about Trump’s cognitive decline this should answer it.
    He has lost it entirely, this is stupidity to the point of insanity and I don’t see how anyone can continue denying that.
    On second thought, I have participated in half a dozen interventions with alcoholics and only one worked, eventually.
    There is no limit to Human Stupidity and delusion, if Trump is removed promptly there’s a chance this won’t go Nuclear, otherwise it seems inevitable.
    Perhaps someone in Trump’s circle will spray him with Holy Water…

  11. Mikaelvuo

    Chinese, Russian, and Pakistani diplomats should find a perspective on ending the war, that also advances the long-term interests of Iran, the United States and Israel. They should emphasize that military technology has changed: as missiles and drones continue to develop and their range increases, neither Israel nor the United States can any longer create lasting security in the Middle East through tradiotional warfare alone.

    Instead, if peace is achieved in the region, it would give Israel the opportunity to return to the path of development. (Since it still possesses nuclear weapons, no one would dare attack it anyway.) In other words, peace combined with nuclear deterrence represents Israel’s true and longer-term interest.

    A swift peace is also vital for the United States, so that global energy markets can begin functioning normally again.

    Moreover, if there is peace in the region, Trump can withdraw his expensive military forces from the area.

    This would also be the best long-term option for the United States, because due to Iran’s missiles, the U.S. can no longer protect the GCC countries from its bases in the region. Therefore, the Trump administration could argue that rapidly restoring peace is the best way to also guarantee the security of the GCC states.

    To persuade Netanyahu — who fears legal proceedings — to accept this, the United States could grant asylum to Netanyahu’s entire family.

    This would also make it easier for the Israeli government to agree to peace.

    1. TimH

      that also advances the long-term interests of Iran, the United States and Israel

      Israel won’t agree to the long-term interests of Iran, namely Iran’s security as an independent country free from re-occurrence of the last month, sanctions etc.

      1. Objective Ace

        >Israel won’t agree to the long-term interests of Iran, namely Iran’s security as an independent country free from re-occurrence of the last month, sanctions etc.

        If/when the choice comes down to that or unconditional surrender/annihilation I forsee them changing their preferences

        1. Joe Renter

          I read the other day (here?) we can have peace or we can have Zionism, but we can’t have both.

          1. A Little Bird

            I don’t see how this doesn’t end with the destruction of Israel. They seem utterly committed to it.

    3. motorslug

      Israel has no right to any future, it is a failed experiment which never should have happened to begin with.

  12. Wukchumni

    A thought occurred that both Venezuela and Iran* in spite of vast mineral wealth, both became basket-case long term hyperinflation players, each going from around 5 Bolivars and Rials to the $, to a few million or more to the buck presently over a 40-50 year span.

    Was it a concerted effort by the US to wreck their economies, and then plunder?

    * Indians are big players in the AuBug leagues, but Iranians might be even more enthusiastic individually in their holdings

    1. The Rev Kev

      I should curse you, you know. The other day you made a comment how likely the last twenty years of your life will not resemble the first sixty and now I can’t get that thought out of my head. It rings so true, even though I do not want it to be so. What was that Depression-era memoir that you have recommended from time to time again?

      1. Wukchumni

        The Great Depression-A Diary the diary of Benjamin Roth

        Benjamin Roth is a lawyer in Youngstown Ohio and he starts his diary in 1931, and thanks to his critical thinking abilities portrays what he sees unfolding on a daily basis in Youngstown and the world. It isn’t the Great Depression most of us think we know, its much worse because there is no money on the street, as all of the banks are closing up with depositors money unavailable to them rather all of the sudden.

        One day in his diary he buys a bushel of apples for a Quarter, that’s 1/5th of a Cent per apple.

        One aspect I found intriguing was the idea that ads were placed in Youngstown newspapers circa 1932-33 offering a percentage of your money in the bank, from around 35 to 65%, all depending on what said bank had in real estate that they could buy with your discounted money.

        Talk about breaking the buck!

          1. Jeremy Grimm

            Thank you for calling attention to Wukchumni’s comments about this book. I will also try to get a copy. I will try to get my daughter to read it too. She does not want to understand what the future may hold, virtually promises for the next soon coming years.

        2. converger

          Another data point: my father grew up in a rural valley in the northern Rockies where US dollars essentially disappeared during the Depression.

          The county issued scrip. If you had a regular job, you were paid in scrip. When you went to the store, you paid in scrip. The local bank exchange rate was roughly 70 cents of scrip face value on the dollar, but nobody exchanged for dollars unless there was something they needed to import from outside the valley.

          Outside of stores and regular jobs, goods and services were paid for by a combination of scrip, barter, and labor shares. For my family, wheat came from dryland wheat acreage owned by the extended family, allocated by family labor shares. My grandfather’s part-time county school teaching salary was paid in scrip. His carpentry work was paid in scrip and barter, as was my grandmother’s seamstress work. Butter, milk, and eggs from chickens and a couple of cows got bartered for food that the family wasn’t raising themselves. Most of that went to barter: breakfast for the family was typically dry-fried flour and water. I can report from personal experience that it tastes like library paste.

          There was no (hydro-generated) electricity outside of town. A lot of agriculture reverted to horses. Local farmers ran the irrigation co-op. The county operated a community cannery, which was still operating when I was a kid. Everybody, children and adults, volunteered time and labor at the Mormon church-owned farm and food bank, which was also still the case when I was a kid.

          Nobody got rich. My father and aunts and uncles remembered the hunger seasons. But nobody starved.

        3. JohnW

          Just ordered a copy for myself. Many yrs since I last read any depression literature.
          From the same period but on a different tangent, read Jung’s Wotan essay, published in ‘36. It has always seemed to me that when deutscheland was defeated at the end of ww2, Wotan just moved across the Atlantic in a seamless transition to the Cold War, the nuclear arms race, and American empire.

        1. The Rev Kev

          Wukchumni would probably remember better but it was a personal observation from a coupla days ago.

            2. BlueMoose

              Thanks for that blast from the past. Of course next to that was Steely Dan’s Reelin’ in the years which I had to listen to. I suspect I will be visiting a lot of old great songs tonight.

              “The things that pass for knowledge I can’t understand.”

  13. Socal Rhino

    Iran is the 10th largest steel producer. They are not like the gulf monarchies, they have a large industrial economy. They are more like Russia’s economy.

  14. Cardiac

    On the matter of real-world shortages, Prince George’s County Maryland (right outside D.C.) just announced:

    On Wednesday, WSSC Water lowered fluoride levels added to the drinking water supplied to customers at its Potomac and Patuxent Water Filtration Plants due to nationwide supply shortages linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Drinking water remains safe, and normal fluoridation will resume once supplies stabilize.

    Hydrofluorosilicic acid is the compound used in community water fluoridation. This market has experienced significant disruption in recent months due to reduced domestic production and reduced output from other producers. One major supplier, located in Israel, has experienced significant operational impacts. WSSC Water will continue to receive shipments of the compound, but at a reduced volume.

    I’m likely as clueless as Mr. Market when it comes to how many goods and services are actually impacted, but I suspect we’re both about to find out.

    1. Revenant

      Once they stop fluoridating the water, the American people will be able to Think Freely.

      Maybe?

  15. Afro

    It’s startling that out of all of the concessions to Iran in the original deal, the ceasefire in Lebanon is the item that turned out to be too much. If I try and be objective, it kind of seems like that should be the most minor concession.

    1. hk

      Lebanon is exclusively Israeli problem, so to speak: any and all concession there has to be made by Israel. US does not concede on Lebanon, but only makes sure that Israel does. So this means that US cannot make Israel to concede, even when we can make all manner of other concessions.

      We are basically admitting that we are not a real sovereign country.

    2. Richard

      I’ve wanted to say this all morning. I’m putting this here, because it kind of follows…

      I think Trump’s acceptance of Iran’s 10 Point Plan was a ruse. He wanted an out. He needed Iran to agree to it. So he said, OK, the 10 Point Plan will be the basis for discussion. And Iran did agree, because what else could they do? He “accepted” their plan. But he never meant it. I thought he’d have his negotiators deep six it piecemeal when the negotiators first met, demanding his 15 Point Plan. Instead, Israel dumped it for him, by refusing to recognize Lebanon’s inclusion.

      The payoff for Trump was 1) a way out of his armageddon deadline. (It seems a nuclear attack to eliminate a civilization is still too shocking to be said in public.) He also got, 2) a soothed market for a couple days, 3) no immediate worry about a demand for boots on the ground, and 4) Iran a bit on the back foot.

      Iran has responded appropriately and (important) quickly, by refusing to re-open the Strait and launching missiles. Thus, we are back to war, albiet at reduced intensity (ex Lebanon) — for now.

      The big question is: Will China stick? Everyone says China pushed for a deal out of their own immediate economic interest. But, supposedly, the Chinese know they are the ultimate target and play the long game. We’ll see.

      Just to add, nakedcapitalism provides the best daily Iran recap/analysis anywhere — bar none. Thanks Yves and team.

  16. EnigmaWrappedInBacon

    Interesting polling from Pew. It’s remarkable the extent to which the views of the electorate about Israel aren’t reflected in U.S policy. It would be surprising if this impacted the mid-terms and incumbents paid a price at the polls for their continued support of Netanyahu. Here’s hoping that $5 dollar a gallon gas will be enough to piss off voters.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/07/negative-views-of-israel-netanyahu-continue-to-rise-among-americans-especially-young-people/

    1. boshko

      ” It’s remarkable the extent to which the views of the electorate about [INSERT ANY RATIONAL POLICY THAT BENEFITS THE MASSES] aren’t reflected in U.S policy.”

      standard operating procedure. move along.

    2. motorslug

      This Cambridge (Gilens and Page) study is 12 years old now and getting worse:
      https://archive.org/details/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc

      Sometimes known as “the oligarchy study”.

      “The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence.”

      1. ChrisPacific

        Given the potential economic impact, it’s hard to believe businesses want this any more than voters do.

        Some things are hard to stop once they are in motion. We saw the same thing with Brexit, which was opposed by most of the elite class.

  17. flora

    There is something extraordinary unfolding here, imo.
    For hundred of years sea power has ruled the world. Now, land based power, with the detente between RU and CH and CH’s belt-and-road development, land based trade, appears to be challenging the old sea power paradigm. The Eurasian* landmass encompasses 2/3’s of the world’s population.

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasia

    Tiny Isr with is 9 million people is destroying globalism as we have known it, imo.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      No, Larry Wilkerson discussed this. When sea powers abused their position (via say forts on choke points), cities and countries eventually moved to land routes. He had examples but I cannot recall them.

      1. PlutoniumKun

        Napoleon built the very beautiful Brest to Nantes and the Ille-et Rance Canals solely to avoid British seapower interfering with his most important Atlantic ports and to stop them choking off the passage between Brittany and Englands south coast.

        1. Polar Socialist

          Indeed, I’d say the current events are demolishing the narrative of sea power dominating the world.

          Mahan’s was for empires without an adjoining landmass to expand to. The “Great Game” was all about UK being scared senseless of losing her empire should Russia flex a muscle.

    2. Who Cares

      Old news. This has been put on paper by Mackinder in 1904 as the Heartland theory. Basically Russia could not be allowed to have positive relations with Continental Europe if Great Britain was to keep their empire.
      When USA took over from Great Britain they also took the core of that theory. To the point that Kissinger in 2016 lamented that they were so focussed on driving wedges between Russia and the rest of Europe that they missed that USA was connecting Russia and China due to that (quite a feat seeing the hostility between the two during the cold war and the, sometimes desperate, attempts of Russia to join the west).

    4. Kouros

      Nah, it is the technology first and foremost (which can help in dishing out concentrated violence/destruction). It will still be relevant that sea commerce is cheaper (not LNG though). But nowadays sea powers can and do act more like pirates…

    5. eg

      What catches my eye is the technological changes which allow for interdiction of narrow maritime passages without naval power — as first demonstrated by Ansarallah, aka the Houthis.

      The only precedent I can think of was when someone put a gigantic chain across the Bosporus.

  18. Samuel Conner

    Just wondering out loud: as physical shortages bite in the West, is there enough competency among those in power to manage the decline in output by prioritizing essential goods? I’m not confident that price signals in markets can by themselves solve the problem (they certainly will be effective as a rationing mechanism for limiting consumption, but “ability to pay” is not a highly effective mechanism for promoting public weal, as is evident for example from consideration of for-profit provision of health care).

    1. Wukchumni

      In the run up to Covid maybe a week or 2 before everything shut down in March of 2020 I noticed on 2 occasions Chinese people buying what I would call a veritable shitlode of N-95 masks at the Home Depot in Visalia and a smaller amount at our mercantile here, effectively wiping them out.

      Plunder on an industrial scale has to be going on internationally, as countries scurry about for precious petroleum parts

      1. In Cold Chud

        Shortly before this, in January 2020, I was working a temp job in the mail room of a small but well-known liberal arts college, about a third of the students at which were international, at least a plurality of whom were from China. I ended up handling quite a few large boxes of masks ordered by students from Home Depot and then immediately reposted via international carriers to China. It was somewhat surreal, given the “that’s over there and we’re over here” mood that prevailed at the time, even in the most unrepentant sh–lib part of the country.

        1. The Rev Kev

          At the beginning of the Covid outbreak, a whole airliner left Oz for China and in each seat was a box of medical gear such as masks strapped down. People thought that the Chinese were acting weird but later people were bitching that we allowed all that medical gear out of the country when at the time they could not care less.

    2. Timmy

      This is actually the critical next step after the marginal supplies have been delivered and there really isn’t an effective policy response. That stage is loosely described as “hoarding” and was flagged by Carlyle’s commodity strategist Jeff Curie two or three weeks ago on Bloomberg. The dynamic is essentially competitive purchases among wholesale consumers. It shows up as building additional stockpiles or inventory on a precautionary basis and thus generates a feedback loop that causes further action by rivals to do the same. It might also show up as rationing use of the material to take advantage of higher prices in the future.

      I think this is why Trump panicked over the weekend and set the ultimatum for Tuesday. The potential non-linear increase in prices is now in the event horizon as we get toward the end of April. He won’t be able to talk that down.

      1. Samuel Conner

        Thank you.

        > I think this is why Trump panicked over the weekend

        Something that puzzles me is that destruction of Iranian infrastructure only hardens future supply constraints (since the Iranians can be relied on to keep their promises of retaliatory destruction of Gulf State infrastructure).

        The thing that DJT is threatening as the lever to open the Strait and alleviate supply problems will only make the supply problems worse and longer lasting.

        I do hope that he finds a way to stop worrying about Iran and turn his attention to other things. The renewed mention of Greenland this week might be a hopeful sign in that direction.

    3. motorslug

      I harp on this all the time (ala Dean Baker) but when will anyone start massive hemp growing to replace fossil fuels?
      90% of this BS would go away – and save the planet.

  19. The Rev Kev

    ‘Christopher Hale
    @ChristopherHale
    UPDATE: Letters from Leo can now independently confirm that the meeting took place — and that the Vatican was so alarmed by the Pentagon’s tactics that Pope Leo XIV shelved plans to visit the United States later this year. Many in the Vatican saw the Pentagon’s reference to an Avignon papacy as a threat to use military force against the Holy See.’

    Picking a fight where there was no need to be. Sounds like Hegseth’s work here. With the Pentagon’s reference to an Avignon papacy, could it be that as an American Pope, that reasons would be found to keep him in the US if he visited? Maybe some accusations from his past or charges of financial irregularity by the Papacy? No wonder the Pope decided to not visit the US. As an American he would be particularly vulnerable to legal shenanigans by the DoJ.

    1. Gretzen

      The Xpost on this featured yesterday had endless comments deriding and mocking the Pope, denying his legitimacy, calling him everything from a dirty commie, over an agent of Iran and radical Islam to a satanist, telling him to shut the eff up about politics and cheering on Trump.

      Only way, way down there were a handful dissenters, mostly without any “upvotes” (or whatever they call it on X).

    2. Wukchumni

      I’m thinking there was an error and the Pentagon meant nearby Avenal, Ca. where Avenal State Prison is.

    3. hk

      I had this hunch that the cardinals thought having an American pope might help the Church get on the good side of Trump. Boy, did they guess wrong. (JB Bernadotte redux?)

    5. ilsm

      Pope Leo is Augustinian. I attend Mass with a semi retired Augustinian priest. He always preaches Augustinian Christian philosophies.

      Leo’s Palm Sunday homily almost said US does not do Just War.

      Quotes Old Testament “blood on hands”.

      I hear prayer for world peace more.

      1. ilsm

        On Easter Pope Leo preached about “insensitivity to violence”, Jesus’ victory of life over death, self sacrifice and leaving the world/killing behind.

        Philosophy over condemning US. Although condemnation implied.

      1. Daniil Adamov

        Since the Avignon Papacy has already been mentioned… Same way as many professed Catholics in the Middle Ages?

  20. Chet G

    Clarity and logic are among the reasons I find Yves’s posts so compelling:

    Mercogliano was exercised about the latest iteration of the Iranian toll plan, arguing that it is against international law. Ahem, if international law mattered, the US and Israel would not have launched a war against Iran and be openly engaging in war crimes. . . .

  21. Expat2uruguay

    Interesting that in the first tweet there is a map showing the flow of GCC oil around the world which indicates that South America gets precisely zero. 2022 data in fact show that the continent received around 21 billion dollars worth.

    This is the blessing and curse of living in Uruguay, we live in a most forgotten country in what I would argue is the most forgotten continent when it comes to global analysis. It’s quite amazing actually.

    However I would like to inform everyone that we do in fact exist. (Did you know that the southern hemisphere has greatly reduced effects of both nuclear winter and climate change in general? And the effects of nuclear fallout from a war in the northern hemisphere are very very small? Of course such things are never mentioned, shhhhhhh!)

    Anyway Uruguay manages to source between 90 and 98% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. But Uruguay still uses gas for heat in the winter and in the transportation sector. But electrical vehicle use is growing as are investments in producing that needed extra electricity from renewable sources. https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-roils-oil-trade-casting-doubt-on-us-fossil-fuel-push/a-76294122

    But in the meantime, 2023 data show the top 7 oil exporting countries and their percentages of the total oil imports into Uruguay:

    25% Nigeria
    25% the US
    10%, Brazil
    8% India
    8% the Netherlands
    less than 7% Saudi Arabia

    https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/URY/Year/2023/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country/Product/27-27_Fuels/Show/Partner%20Name;MPRT-TRD-VL;MPRT-PRDCT-SHR;AHS-WGHTD-AVRG;MFN-WGHTD-AVRG;/Sort/MPRT-TRD-VL/Chart/top10

    1. The Rev Kev

      ‘we live in a most forgotten country’

      Be careful about that. You don’t want Trump taking a keen interest in Uruguay you know. :)

    2. JohnH

      I’ve long kept Uruguay in my mind as one of the few sane places to escape to in case of a catastrophe. Unfortunately I’m getting past the age where I could escape anything at all.

        1. JohnH

          “How long do they last?” Therein lies the rub.

          Hopefully not longer than your retirement savings…

    3. motorslug

      How easy/expensive is it to emigrate from USSA?
      Nice beaches and weather, or is it hot and humid with no waves?

  22. spork

    The Trump admin’s behavior, especially during this debacle, reminds me of Bill Black’s description of a ‘control fraud’ in his book about the savings and loan crisis, “The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One”.

    The bank managers he portrayed often stole huge sums of money from their own banks, ultimately causing them to fail and several ended up in prison. They were able to get away with it (for a time) by surrounding themselves with unquestioning and mediocre staff. To me the crazy part was that control frauds typically had no long term master plan to get away with their schemes, they were just faking their way from one fraud to another. When confronted, they would always double down with another lie, trying to maintain their position even as their lies became increasingly transparent and desperate. They were not criminal geniuses, but were simply stringing everyone along with their sociopathic traits, trying to protect their status, wealth, and power for as long as possible and hoping and believing it would all continue to work out for them in the end. You could even argue their inability to plan adequately for the future meant they lacked self preservation.

    1. hemeantwell

      Nice catch, good to bring Black’s analysis into the mix here. It’s impossible to overestimate the extent to which a financialized mentality has distorted elite strategic capacity. This all brings to mind Lukacs’ argument in History and Class Consciousness about the limits of bourgeois thought as determined by fetishizing the production of exchange value instead the production of use values. Steve Keen’s recent points about neoclassical economics being blind to commodity production chains is in the same ballpark. We don’t live in a world of infinite fungibility of commodities.

  23. vidimi

    Does anyone know if Iran is hitting anything right now, or are they observing a unilateral ceasefire while Israel pounds Lebanon? Perhaps their missile-launching capabilities have been degraded more than we think.

    1. Safety First

      Hezbollah has been launching rockets at Israel since last night. Iran appears to be holding fire until tomorrow’s talks in Islamabad. So is CENTCOM, by the way, so there is a logic here (proxy on proxy).

      Although I am not sure they might have that long. Israel has apparently just broadcast its intention to hit southern Beirut, hard. Someone really, really wants the Iranians to be the first to break the ceasefire.

      1. vidimi

        what ceasefire and who would they be trying to placate that doesn’t understand that Israel is breaking said ceasefire?

        1. TimH

          MSM is pretending that the ceasefire is holding, so if Iran does something it will be them breaking the ceasefire.

          Example from 1 hour ago:

          This two-week cease-fire timeline is likely to be as reliable as those contractors. Will it hold? Nobody knows for sure.

    2. ThirtyOne

      A few quick looks at Flightradar24 over the past couple days shows almost no air tankers flying in the region. Lots of C130s moving about, though.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Look at the bright side. They might use AI to register Americans for the draft. But when it came time to call up all these people, would discover too late that the AI hallucinated whole cohorts of young draftees.

  26. Ann

    White-collar workers are quietly rebelling against AI as 80% outright refuse adoption mandates

    https://fortune.com/2026/04/09/ai-backlash-quiet-quitting-fobo-obsolete-white-collar-rebellion/

    ‘Poorly run, piece of ice’: Trump targets Greenland again as Iran war deepens NATO rift

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/trump-greenland-nato-rift-iran-war-deepens.html

    More Europeans see US as threat than China

    https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-eu-countries-us-bigger-threat-than-china

    Pentagon told Pope’s top diplomat to ‘take its side’ on US military ambitions: report

    https://www.9news.com.au/world/cardinal-christophe-pierre-pope-leo-pentagon-jd-vance-usa-politics-news/216a1531-509b-4f62-b6ae-b652c24b0784

    Trump says U.S. ready for ‘next conquest,’ warns military to remain near Iran until ‘real agreement’ is honored

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/09/trump-military-troops-iran-conflict-middle-east-hormuz.html

    Iran’s president says Israeli strikes on Lebanon render negotiations meaningless

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-president-says-israeli-strikes-lebanon-render-negotiations-meaningless-2026-04-09/

  27. Ann

    ‘Climate change is kicking our butts.’ March smashes heat records for continental US

    https://apnews.com/article/march-temperature-record-weather-el-nino-369298794ffd94665ed78a6b4f3b0267

    Spain to reopen embassy in Tehran

    https://news.az/news/spain-to-reopen-embassy-in-tehran

    Britain condemns Israeli strikes on Lebanon in split from Trump

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/04/09/britain-condemns-israeli-strikes-on-lebanon-in-split/

    France rejects transit fee for passing through strait

    https://www.bernama.com/en/world/news.php

    North Korea Unveils “Blackout Bombs” Designed to Shut Down Entire Power Grids

    https://united24media.com/latest-news/north-korea-unveils-blackout-bombs-designed-to-shut-down-entire-power-grids-17764

    Trump warns strikes will resume if Iran doesn’t agree to his peace terms

    https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5779000/iran-war-updates

    1. hereweare

      North Korea Unveils “Blackout Bombs” Designed to Shut Down Entire Power Grids
      It looks to me like these graphite bombs / carbon fibre bombs would work even if intercepted, so long as they get reasonably near their target first.
      “Graphite bombs usually consist of a metal canister that is filled with spools of graphite filament and an explosive device.[1] Graphite is a sufficiently good conductor and the current flowing in the fiber immediately vaporizes it, creating a thin channel of gas, ionized by the high temperature, around the space previously occupied by the fiber. The ionized gas, also a conductor, allows more current to flow, raising the temperature further and creating a bigger channel of ionized gas until the high voltage line is effectively short circuited. At this point either the protection of the line cuts the power, or the line fails due to overcurrent. In both cases the power distribution is cut.[2]”
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb

      Any thoughts from more technically minded readers?

  28. Tom Stone

    Donal Trump is a bloodthirsty, utterly corrupt grandiose narcissist with white matter disease.
    A Mad King, putrid body odor included.
    The next few Months won’t be boring.

    1. motorslug

      “The fat one on the throne is the Queen.
      She’s not very well today,
      so I should kneel upwind of her.
      And the thin one is Lady Churchill.
      She’s the brains of the outfit.”

      — Yellowbeard, 1983

  29. Safety First

    Tidbit. This morning, state-adjacent Russian television/radio/Internet channels are extremely ticked off at Israel’s strikes on Lebanon. At least one of the hosts on Solov’ev’s channel has literally called Israeli actions and policy “Nazism”, and compared Bibi to various Third Reich personages.

    Whether one agrees with that characterization or not, this particular Russian government and state-adjacent media are typically very, very careful about openly criticizing Israel. To the point of the flagship nightly news program on Channel 1 always balancing their reports from Lebanon, typically centered on Israeli bomb and missile strikes, with equal-length reports from Israel, emphasizing the hardship of ordinary Israelis having to spend time in bomb shelters. [The fact that ~1 million Israeli Jews are former or current Russian citizens surely must play a role here.] We’ll see how tonight’s programs treat this issue, but thus far it seems that someone in the Kremlin is fairly irked.

    Which in turn implies that the Russians had had their own vested interest in the US-Iran ceasefire and negotiations. Possibly because they do not want either Iran or Israel to be destroyed at the end of it, but that’s just a guess.

    1. KD

      One gets the feeling that there may be an intervention from the neighbors regarding the dotty old lady who can’t remember the 10-points she agreed to yesterday and her rabid terrier dog which she insists on letting loose to bite the neighborhood children. “But he’s a nice dog, and you know when I adopted him, he had been badly abused.”

    2. BillC

      Thanks for your summary of Russian press, SF. I usually see this info only from Gilbert Doctorow, who sometimes seems a bit overly hetero- heterodox. A sanity check is always helpful.

  30. Ann

    Iran war doubles Russia’s main oil revenue to $9 billion in April

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-war-doubles-russias-main-oil-revenue-9-bln-april-reuters-calculations-show-2026-04-09/

    Al-Aqsa Mosque reopen

    https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/4/9/thousands-of-palestinians-pray-at-al-aqsa-mosque-after-israels-40-day-ban

    Australian spy plane operators in Middle East not sharing intel with US for offensive operations, defence boss says

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/09/australian-spy-plane-operators-in-middle-east-not-sharing-intel-with-us-for-offensive-operations-defence-boss-says

    Trump’s Iran war widens rift with European nationalists once viewed as MAGA allies

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-vance-orban-hungary-maga-iran-war-6923d864c09069351ca5f12c3be4a601

    Taiwan opposition leader talks peace with China as her party skips defence talks in Taipei

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/birds-not-missiles-should-fly-skies-taiwan-opposition-leader-says-china-2026-04-09/

    EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas: Iran’s control of Strait of Hormuz is ‘everybody’s problem’ and could lead to a ‘dangerous slippery slope’

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2026/04/09/irans-control-of-hormuz-strait-could-lead-to-a-slippery-slope-says-kallas/

    1. TimH

      Australian spy plane operators in Middle East not sharing intel with US for offensive operations, defence boss says

      Italy claimed not be assisting US too, and this was found to be a lie a day or two ago as discussed here.

        1. The Rev Kev

          Probably to placate Trump so that we don’t get heavily sanctioned – a forlorn hope.

  31. ISL

    Thank you for summarizing the points Sal mentions – I have a sensitive stomach, and difficult listening to him since the war started – he was a go to blog before the war for me and I am awaiting reality to catch up with his perspective (or the other way round). Thus, I appreciate the summary.

    Still, his video is posted twice (double vision?)…

    1. Pearl Rangefinder

      I don’t know if there’s a good word that describes the phenomenon, but I’ve seen it often lately where obviously intelligent people seem to find even the idea itself offensive that “a puny third-rate power Iran could even dare challenge the might of the US Navy!”. It’s like it breaks their view of the world somehow, you can see the logic twisting happening in almost real time. Twitter is full of people with claims along the lines of “the Straits aren’t REALLY closed, the shipping companies are just cowards!”, and persist with this line of thinking even when it’s pointed out to them that if even the US navy is avoiding the Straits like a plague, what chance does some fat cargo ship have?

      Asymmetric warfare and just technological change in warfare really breaks peoples brains.

      1. chris

        These are the same people who think you can just “shoot them in the leg” and then you won’t have accidental deaths from Police engagement.

        Probably the biggest thing I’ve gained from exposure to NC is how our current market for symbolic capitalism dominates so much. We choose not to prepare for disasters, we choose to ignore crises, we choose to double down on failed concepts, because we can’t realize any benefits from early adoption of different strategies that would challenge the status quo. It won’t occur to this crowd that our concept of a navy is currently meaningless. It won’t hit these people that we’re screwed because of how deindustrialized we’ve become until we have mass deprivation in the US and they can’t grill burgers this summer.

        This is the same kind of quantum reality we’ve been experiencing in the run up to every election. There are two realities in the US and they don’t collapse into one shared set of facts unless something drastic occurs. Like Trump getting elected.

      2. TimH

        In the 35 years from 1885 to 1919 armies received machines guns (Maxim), fighter/bomber/observation aircraft, mechanised logistics (trucks), armour (tanks). Major changes in tactics happened.

        Between 1944 to 2020 most war hardware simply improved, plus expensive unmanned aircraft with limited munitions (Reaper) became available. So “unmanned” is really the only category addition.

        Now you have very effective, very cheap, very quick to manufacture drones which wipe out much more expensive targets, whether air, sea, or land based.

        If you have been brought up that American is best, and wunderwaffen has to be expensive/complicated/clever… maight be shock.

        1. JonnyJames

          I would imagine that Romans were surprised and struck with disbelief when the “barbarians” overran the western empire. Nothing stays the same forever…
          The many decades of psychological conditioning by the mass media, Hollywood, compromised “academics”, “think tanks” etc. will take a bit of time to mitigate. Or can we believe our lying eyes?

        2. Revenant

          1944-2020:
          – missiles
          – satellites
          – radar
          – nuclear weapons
          – nuclear submarines

          But broadly I agree with you. Nuclear weapons and missiles and submarines mainly affected strategic posture, plans were still made for ground war and artillery. Satellites and radar affected stand-off warfare and surveillance / nuclear MAD.

        3. hk

          One of the revolutionary weapons between 1885 and 1919 was the French 75mm field gun, developed in 1898 and considered the first modern artillery piece, thanks to incorporation of the first successful recoil absorption mechanism. With minimal changes, the thing remained in service until after World War 2 (the short 75mm gun of the original Sherman was just an updated version of this gun) and would have stayed in service longer except for a 75mm field gun being too impotent for modern battlefield…but that was the problem during World War I, too).

      3. NotTimothyGeithner

        Colonialism/Orientalism is a helluva drug. “Greatest MILITARY ON ERFF” That garbage is shouted by both parties with no context.

        If the carriers aren’t panaceas, what was the point?

        I’m fairly certain most people see planes as nothing more than magic, so discussing items such as combat range when the TV MAN sed something different is the equivalent of meeting Galileo.

      4. .Tom

        In the Janta Ka Reporter video that Yves featured there’s a wonderfully humorous moment when former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander of NATO General Sir Richard Shirreff said, “You now see the global superpower humbled by a … you know by a tinpot theocratic dictatorship.” In that pause you can clearly see him decide if he’s going to go for it and use the classic that even back in the days of Yes Minister would be used to mark out the bloviating drunk old peer. And yes he does, he decides to do it. What a moment! Starts at about 10:30.

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      Fixed. There is a bug in the version of the Mac OS I use where copying does not put a new item on the clipboard, producing duplicate copies. Super annoying.

  32. JohnH

    I wonder if anyone is talking odds on Trump’s probability of being impeached for crashing the global economy vs. being impeached for cutting off military support of Israel. Given the Zionist capture of Congress, I’d bet that short-term he’d more likely be impeached for defying Netanyahu…

  33. Ann

    Gas discovery off Egypt’s coast comes at a critical moment for Iran war

    https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/04/07/gas-discovery-off-egypts-coast-comes-at-a-critical-moment-for-iran-war

    Iranian delegation to reach Islamabad Thursday, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iranian-delegation-reach-islamabad-thursday-irans-ambassador-pakistan-says-2026-04-09/

    NATO chief says some European allies were tested and failed in Iran war

    https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-chief-says-some-european-allies-were-tested-failed-iran-war-2026-04-08/

    US senator urges Taiwan parliament to pass stalled defence spending plan

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-senator-urges-taiwan-parliament-pass-stalled-defence-spending-plan-2026-04-09/

    Marjorie Taylor Greene Calls For GOP To Be ‘Burned To Ground’

    https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-for-gop-to-be-burned-to-ground-11804513

    Report exposes a Trump scheme to override midterm vote with bogus crisis

    https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow/watch/report-exposes-a-trump-scheme-to-override-midterm-vote-with-bogus-crisis-2495371331582

    Dear Trump supporters: How much more are you willing to ignore?: What more are you willing to “compartmentalize” while you tell yourself this is all an acceptable bargain to get judges and tax cuts? Does he need to nuke a nation to lose your trust and respect?

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2026/04/09/trump-supporters-iran-bombing-truth-social-lies-racist-sexist-maga-s-e-cupp

    1. Jabura Basadai

      wow – thank you for your diligence Ann –
      as always thank you Yves for your focus and intelligence, appreciated beyond words capable of showing how much your work means –
      MTG is going for the throat – good for her! – may not agree with some of her views but certainly think she is on the correct path in this regard – if she gains traction she may be “Kirked” –

      1. Ann

        You are very welcome, Jabura Basadai. Thank you for helping me learn to “prune” the links.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Heroines come from unlikely places. I know that she is big into cross-fit, and there are videos of her clean-and-jerking beaucoup plates of iron, so I would definitely not mess with her.

          Hell hath no fury …

    3. AG

      re: Trump supporters

      Maybe I am mistaken but is it possible that most US voters – following US tradition – give very little thought to what is going on outside the US? I mean how many are actually following news beyond some headlines which make it into suburbia, flyover states, the various “belts”, or rural America in general. And if you have 3 jobs to survive you certainly have more important things.

      Hell, even in Germany the level of awareness is laughable among the “common” people.
      The have jobs which they detest or endure, they hope to reach the WE, have some fun or at least relax.

      I don´t know Trump´s current polling numbers but I would at least question that voters at large react overly strong to the war unles it causes high gasoline prices etc.

      And when midterms loom the PR machinery is set in motion.

      1. JonnyJames

        I think you are correct. Most people have little or no awareness of intl. affairs, and are grossly misinformed by the mass media, and the govt. propaganda. If petrol/gas prices are high, they have no meaningful political alternative other than vote the incumbent out. The US has legalized/formalized political bribery so we cannot expect any functioning democracy. There is little difference between the two “parties” because they are being bribed by the same oligarchy.

        But of course we use NewSpeak euephemisms to describe the world’s #1 Democracy Inc.

        “donors” “philanthropists”, “tech moguls”, “campaign contributions” “free and fair elections” “lesser evil”

        But I say, there is no lesser genocide and evil is evil.

        I tend to think that George Carlin was correct.

      2. Wukchumni

        90% of my countrymen couldn’t place Iran on a map of the world with only delineated borders and nothing else.

      3. motorslug

        ‘Muricans have always been mostly ignorant of ROW affairs but way worse today than ever.
        Methinks that was the plan all along – CIA funding google, facebook, twitter, etc. to keep the masses distracted, bemused, non-critical thinking slaves to the oligarchs.

    4. Who Cares

      Thank you for the links.
      But that first one is seriously delusional if they think a discovery now will help with the GW3. It takes a decade to two decades to get an offshore field to production.

    5. John k

      I feel well informed by this daily war report, but I also value, along with others, your updates after Yves goes to press. Thank you.
      I second mtg;s call to burn the gop to the ground – really nothing there worth saving – but in all fairness the dems should get equal time in the bonfire.

    7. JohnH

      Old nursery rhyme–

      G-O-P is burning, G-O-P is burning.
      Fetch the tankers, fetch the tankers.
      Fire, fire! Fire, fire!
      Pour on petro, pour on petro.

  34. Timmy

    Netanyahu’s corruption trial to resume on Sunday according to the Middle East Eye.

    ““With the lifting of the state of emergency and the return of the judicial system to work, hearings will resume as usual,” a spokesperson for the court said.”

    I trust this won’t have any influence on the conduct of Israel with respect to Iran and Hezbollah….

  35. The Rev Kev

    ‘ChrisO_wiki
    @ChrisO_wiki
    19/ This is highlighted in the map below by JP Morgan, which shows when the last Gulf tankers are due to arrive at various destinations. Europe is next to receive its final shipments, with the last jet fuel tanker due to arrive on 9 April.’

    Thought that I would check to see what the speed of these ships are and found that they travel at about 10 to 13 knots, about 12-15 miles per hour or about 20-24 kilometers per hour. That is slow-

    https://www.jackcooper.com/the-speed-of-cargo-ships-secrets-you-should-know/

    1. JohnH

      It amazes me that having to wear a head scarf ever got to be such a BIG issue. In many Islamic nations, it’s just being culturally appropriate. I mean, what’s wrong with big expected to dress conservatively? It’s not exactly cruel and unusual punishment.

      In the West women are free to dress provocatively. Some women then complain about men leering at them!

      Meanwhile, Ohio Republicans are trying to criminalize cross dressing!

      1. hereweare

        Wearing masks got to be a huge issue at the height of COVID. I’d have thought it a minor inconvenience, well worth doing while scientists tried to figure out how effective they actually are. But no! Meanwhile men being expected to wear ties gets little attention. One’s a gross imposition, the other a cultural convention.

        1. motorslug

          Yeah, and those morons lambasting mask mandates (or making it illegal to enact one) are the same loonies demanding icestapo be allowed to wear them.

  37. chuck roast

    It’s a scream to see Iran demand Hormuz tolls in the form of crypto currency. This libertarian effort to privatize money has come back to bite the Epstein Class big time. It was all fun and games when it was simply a mechanism for fraud, blackmail, extortion, speculation and digital theft. There was a lesson to be learned when Maersk paid a huge crypto toll to hackers in 2017, but our genius overseers were bunking school that day.

    There is a case to be made for using crypto to avoid the indiscriminate sanctions that are increasingly becoming a part of peoples lives…ask Jacques Baud. I hate to say it, but maybe crypto currency will go from being a preventable cancer to becoming a necessary requirement for resistance.

    1. Ben Panga

      >There is a case to be made for using crypto to avoid the indiscriminate sanctions that are increasingly becoming a part of peoples lives

      I know a load of normal, non criminal Russians here (Vietnam) who get paid in crypto and transact in crypto for precisely this reason.

      1. ChrisPacific

        This was always the use case for the crypto-anarchist types who distrust government of any kind on principle. There are times when it aligns with the real world.

        Differentiating that from criminal activity depends mainly on your moral estimation of the parties concerned.

    2. Tom

      I sorta thought the opposite. From the numerous articles on this site it would seem that any crypto currency is subject to manipulation and abuse. If Iran picks say, Bitcoin, then my guess is that the US would declare Bitcoin a “currency of terror” and shut it down. We may not have much of a military, but cryptocurrency/financial shenanigans are well within our capabilities. Iran would either have to issue its own cryptocurrency or partner with China(?) to issue a currency with enough centralization and defense against hacking attacks. I’d at least expect to see a lot more regulation around crypto.

      We can’t let our grift enrich our enemies so crypto won’t be allowed to act like real money any more.

  38. Ann

    Joe Rogan connects Epstein files to Trump’s Iran war

    https://www.newsweek.com/joe-rogan-connects-epstein-files-trump-iran-war-11805309

    Trump the ‘America First’ president will be using foreign steel to build his White House ballroom

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gavin-newsom-trump-ballroom-steel-b2954477.html

    Trump sent the economy into free fall, new report shows

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208841/donald-trump-america-gdp-shrink

    ‘We lose the midterms’: Republicans worry Iran might have already cost them Congress

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/08/republicans-fear-iran-will-cost-them-the-midterms-ceasefire-or-not-00864697

    As RFK Jr allies hailed Mississippi’s rollback of strict school vaccine rules, whooping cough surged and a baby died

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/apr/09/rfk-jr-mississippi-rollback-school-vaccine-rules

      2. PapaPoe

        Joe is very close to Tech Bros. I do not think he has given it much thought.

        However, Theo Von was on his show recently and constantly brought this up. Joe was concerned about Theo’s mental health due to this train of throught…maybe Joe looked into it or talked to someone else who reinforced that the Epstein class rules the American Empire.

  39. Ben Panga

    The Potato King, frustrated with Iran’s steadfastness, turns his ultimatum cannon on NATO.

    Trump issues ‘ultimatum’ to European allies on securing Strait of Hormuz: Report (Andalou Agency)

    US president told NATO chief that European allies must commit warships or other military capabilities to the strait within days, according to Der Spiegel

    US President Donald Trump has given European allies a matter of days to commit warships or other military assets to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, Der Spiegel reported on Thursday.

    The demand came during a closed-door meeting at the White House between Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Rutte subsequently told European capitals that Washington is seeking “concrete commitments” in the coming days, the magazine reported, citing European diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity.

    The diplomats characterized the request as an “ultimatum,” saying the Trump administration made clear that vague “political pledges” from allies are no longer sufficient. It remained unclear whether the US is pushing for a formal NATO mission, or simply coordinated national deployments.

    Major European allies, including Germany, have so far been reluctant to send naval forces to ensure free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, saying the US and Israel did not consult them before launching the war against Iran.

    German Chancellor Friedrich Merz earlier criticized the US and Israel for lacking a clear strategy to end the conflict. He said Germany could help secure navigation in the strait only after a ceasefire, and only with an international mandate and approval from the German parliament.

    In a Truth Social post after his meeting with NATO’s Rutte on Wednesday, Trump continued his criticism of European allies and their role during the conflict. “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them, and they won’t be there if we need them again,” he wrote.

    Earlier, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump believes NATO was “tested, and they failed” during the Iran war. “It’s quite sad that NATO turned its back on the American people over the course of the last six weeks when it’s the American people who have been funding their defense,” she said.

    ——-

    In fairness NATO are much more bullyable. Although I don’t think this will produce any warships for the King. (And even if it did, it still wouldn’t get the Strait open).

    NATO is a mess, but idk how it gets unwound.

    —–

    Rutte: ‘Nato is changing, growing stronger’ (Telegraph)

    Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary-general, said that the Western military alliance is “changing” and “growing stronger”.

    Donald Trump has shown increasing anger toward the US’s traditional allies for not joining its war against Iran, accusing Nato of being a “paper tiger” and threatening to leave the alliance.

    During his visit to Washington, Mr Rutte, who enjoys a good relationship with Mr Trump, will be intent on persuading the US president to back down from such threats.

    He spoke of how Nato members are involved in bolstering security across multiple regions, particularly in protecting Europe from Russian aggression.

    Nato’s involvement in leading a coalition to come up with a military plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “is evidence of a mindset shift,” he said.

    “Nato is changing…and growing stronger,” he said. “A stronger Europe and Nato will not take US leadership for granted.”

    —-

    “involvement in leading a coalition to come up with a military plan” lmao

    1. JonnyJames

      Dude contradicts himself every five minutes. NATO paper tiger, NATO stronger, NATO withdrawal, now he wants them to voluntarily have their ships sunk. Even the most sycophantic vassals among them won’t do that. So he throws a tantrum.

      Cloud cuckoo land. Time to take the nuclear football away from the silly nutter, put him in a Strait Jacket (pun intended) and lock him in a padded room.

      1. judy2shoes

        In this particular case, I see no need to pad the room. Let the (potato) chips fall where they may.

    3. turtle

      I’m probably missing something, but if they get really pressured on this, couldn’t any NATO countries who wanted to ingratiate themselves with Trump just send some ships to join the US navy in waiting outside the Persian Gulf? Like, “you lead the way and we’ll follow”, calling the bluff?

      But more realistically, aside from the Europeans being pissed about Trump starting this stupid war without even a token consultation with them, I’m guessing that they may see him as being completely weak by now. Even if he were to pull the US from NATO, wouldn’t they correctly estimate that the worst case scenario would be that the next democrat president probably coming in a little over two years put the US right back in it? And best case for them – Trump gets impeached/removed or dies, and JDV does the same?

      1. Polar Socialist

        Not to make too much of a small thing, but yesterday for the first time the MSM in my corner of EU-NATO had a big article how the F-35 is a POS, and our parliament was completely fooled to order it.

        In January only “Putinists” would have dared to suspect the righteousness of such a bargain.

  40. Yves Smith Post author

    Wellie have not seen confirmed but…

    1. JonnyJames

      That would be grand: it’s the least the Pontifex Maximus can do. I’m no religious expert, but I don’t think that being a party to genocide and war crimes follows the teachings of the RCC or Jesus for that matter.

    2. DGE

      Ironically, and if this is true, the ones who started this were Trump’s side. By giving themselves the trouble of accosting the papal nuncio and invoking the Avignon Papacy as a threat, they transmitted to the church: “your opinion and actions matter to our calculations”. Had they done nothing and just ignored the pope as they always do, they’d have messaged, “we don’t care about your so-called spiritual authority, the material world is all that matters and in the material world, we have material power”, making any threats of excommunication pointless.

      The papal nuncio must actually have thought, “Whoa, are we still important enough for me to be summoned to the Pentagon because of an homily? Let’s see how far we can push this.”

      Frankly, I bet on the RCC versus the US any time. Oldest continuous institution in the world, even older than the Japanese monarchy if you discount the legendary kings. They’ve gone through Roman persecutions, heresies, the pornocracy, schisms, the debauchery of political popes, the Reformation, loss of secular power, you name it. And they’re still there, even if the rise of secularism may finally spell their end in a few generations. Waiting out on a 250-year psychotic republic should be child’s play for them, Saint Peter was drawing tourists 150 years before the 13 colonies started the tantrum we’re still having to put up with.

      Actually, I’m surprised there are still people in the administration cultured enough to know what the Avignon Papacy was. Or maybe they didn’t, because if memory serves, the Avignon popes were the legitimate ones: the antipopes were the ones in Rome. So what are they implying, support us or we’ll move the papacy to Saint Matthew in Washington? And how do they plan on doing that? Had they really known what they’re talking about, the Great Western Schism of 1054 would’ve been the correct analogy.

      1. hemeantwell

        Just want to register my astonishment at the hamhandedness of the Trumpistas at managing religious questions. There’s a least a whiff of the Nazi confidence in the self-evident primacy of national interest as they throttled the major religions after 1933.

      2. Socal Rhino

        Pope aside, there has been a growing rift between Trump and Roman Catholic republicans. Practicing RC have tended to skew Republican for reasons of abortion and other cultural values. An earlier flashpoint was the removal of an anti-zionist RC representative from Trump’s religious liberty commission. Other RC Trump loyalists attacked her, and a bishop publicly came to her defense stating that her view on zionism was consistent with RC doctrine. And Hegseth attended an Easter service that was for Protestant service members only.

        This is awkward for Vance who professes to be RC and could very well hurt republicans in the mid-terms and next general election.

        I think Eldridge Colby is erudite enough to be familiar with the Avignon pope. The threat has been attributed to him.

        1. swangeese

          Trump’s vulgar Easter message and the threats to bomb Iran’s civilian infrastructure to the stone age are what got to my right-wing Catholic friends. These are people that primarily get their news from places like Fox News, are older, and don’t know much of anything about Iran in general. But they do know that killing innocents indiscriminately is a line too far.

          These ladies do love Pope Leo and I’m glad that he is forcefully speaking out.

          Something to consider is that alot of right-wing dark money is being spent to sway Catholics to the hard right. For example, the super popular Catholic network ,EWTN, is owned by the right-wing Napa Institute. Especially if they’re older, it can be an uphill battle because they just believe that a religious outlet that is generally trusted wouldn’t mislead them.

          Right-wing organizations are very good at disguising their agendas with Jesus junk and identity politics. And a lot of people just don’t have the time and/or ability to separate the wheat from the chaff.

      3. Revenant

        “Oldest continuous institution in the world”: the Orthodox Church may have something to say about that. Oldest continuing heresy, maybe! ;-)

        (Also: Hindu temples, Zoroastrianism, maybe some institutions in China…?)

        1. DGE

          Not to dwell on this too much because I wasn’t being entirely serious, but maybe I should have said “organisation” instead:

          – The Orthodox Church may consider themselves the true keepers of the “old belief” and its rites, but I’m talking about institutions are more or less the same as organisations (my mistake), an operational continuum of a purpose-driven association of people within a normative framework. In that sense, to the extent that the Diocese of Rome is older than any Orthodox diocese, I find the Orthodox claim tenuous. Of course, there’s always the Diocese of Jerusalem to discuss about, but since Peter headed both… shrugs

          – I’m not counting religions as institutions (though I perceive now that I should). I doubt any Zoroastrian organisation has an unbroken history. The Mundeshwari Devi Temple is from 108 CE, the Shaolin Temple from the sixth century.

          Naturally, I’m talking about the RCC as the organisation headed by the pope. My point is that they know one or two things about enduring and reinventing themselves.

          1. Polar Socialist

            I think the Diocese of Rome was an Orthodox diocese until times of Pepin the Short and his son, when the Franks took over the Papacy and changed the Byzantine Rite to Frankish against the will of the Roman clergy.

            That said, I do agree that RCC is quite flexible and innovative when it comes to the survival of the organisation.

            1. DGE

              Sure, but that was before the Schism of 1054, so one could say that the rite changed, but the Diocese the Rome kept its continuity, while the rest of the Orthodox Church lost its oldest diocese when it split. I think of it of an old yew tree that over time splits into two. The side where the oldest root lies is called the older tree.

              And like all things religious, here we are discussing how many angels can dance on a pin. Not that I’m complaining, it’s a fun discussion in another depressing day and another step closer to chaos.

          2. Revenant

            It’s an interesting question. If you will indulge me further. I think Orthodoxy still has a claim to the oldest institution.

            The See of Antioch was founded by Peter in 34 AD. Peter was martyred in Rome in 67 AD and Linus was enthroned as first Bishop of Rome (I.e. the first apostolic succession). Ignatius was enthroned as first Bishop of Antioch in 69 AD.

            So the Patriarchate of Antioch has a good claim to predate the See of Rome, even if they were both founded by Peter. And it’s a matter ofvdigma whether Orthodoxy split from Rome or vice versa (I favour the latter view).

            But it wouldn’t change your point, that the Roman Church is an ancient institution, possibly the most ancient.

            1. hk

              Ah, but there are Catholic Patriarchs of Antioch–in fact there are 3 of them (representing 3 separate groups–the Syriacs, the Maronites, and the Melkites–among Eastern (ie not “Roman”) Catholic Churches.) None of them have their mother churches in Antakya, if course: the Syriacs’ and Melkites’ mother churches are in Damascus and the Maronites’ is in Beirut (none if them is in a good locale these days, sadly.)

              ;P

      4. Paradox of Unrealized Power

        “The papal nuncio must actually have thought, “Whoa, are we still important enough for me to be summoned to the Pentagon because of an homily? Let’s see how far we can push this.””

        This must have been pointed out elsewhere, but I don’t think the Pentagon can “summon” a foreign state. This must have gone through the State Department?

    7. swangeese

      I’m Catholic and this is not going to happen.

      Now technically excommunication can happen if you separate yourself from the Church by not following its teachings, but Reconciliation (Confession) remedies that.

      Biden, Pelosi, and many other public Catholics have done the same and worse without the Pope excommunicating them. Really it’s not something that Popes or clergy do anymore.

      Even as they sour on Trump, Vance is still pretty popular amongst the right-wing Catholics I know. And I think that Leo is savvy enough not to burn any bridges unnecessarily.

  41. XXYY

    The 10 points enunciated by Pakistan (and listed by Larry Johnson here) read like an Iranian grievance list and not a ‘basis for negotiations’ or anything like that.

    It’s a good list for the world at large, and I would like to see all the points happen, but I don’t think the US and Israel are at the point of succumbing to what is essentially unconditional surrender on their part. If Iran actually wants to end the war diplomatically by ‘negotiations’, this kind of thing is not going to do it. If they are just trying to buy time and have internally concluded that they can only defeat their enemies militarily, then I think they need a lower profile approach without ceasefires and splashy press releases, like they have been doing up to now and like the Russians have been doing vis-a-vie Ukraine.

    Pakistan is not doing anyone a service, and is inadvertently helping Trump a great deal, by putting forward obvious non-starters.

    1. Safety First

      Meanwhile the 15 points put forward earlier by the Trump administration, essentially calling on Iran to surrender and to dismantle its missile and nuclear programs, were what, exactly?

      Nations, throughout history, are generally not in the habit of negotiating away their core demands unless they believe themselves to be losing. And even when they do believe themselves to be losing, they nevertheless typically start “high” and try negotiate from there. Iran’s core demands have not changed from the first week of the conflict – they just went from 5 to 10 with added details. The US ability to effect regime change or open the Strait also has not changed since the first week of the conflict.

      Expecting or wishing the Iranians to come begging hat in hand and giving away some of their core asks before negotiations even begin is foolish at best. Of course, the same applies to the US, though the US isn’t usually negotiating with external adversaries, but rather with and against itself. [Which is why even exiting a clearly lost war like Vietnam or Afghanistan takes many years.]

    2. Socal Rhino

      These are the points that Iran has been stating from the start. They are essentially conditions for US/ISR surrender. Iran quite rationally believes that ISR and the US will keep coming back to attack them if not dealt with now, it is existential for them.

    3. John k

      This is the kind of list you pot out when you think you are winning or have won. The us/israel nearly out of defensive and stand-off weapons imo means they’re right. It’s already been demonstrated that it’s dangerous to fly over Iran, so looks like either us leaves or unthinkable.
      Imo the us remains stuck in ww2 era weapons while missiles/drones are effective/cheap/don’t risk pilots or super pricey irreplaceable planes. And the new stuff is shown to be very effective vs ww3 stuff. Who wants f35’s now?

    4. Ed S.

      I’ve read a number of versions of the Iranian 10 points; by my reading they boil down to a handful of fundamental requirements:

      1) Leave us alone / stop bombing us (Points 1 and 10 in the Johnson list)
      2) Treat us like a “normal” nation which has the same rights as other nations (Points 3 through 7)
      3) Give us our stuff back and pay for the damage you’ve done (Points 8 and 9)
      4) We’re going to make it painful if you don’t do the above (Point 2).

      These don’t seem unreasonable.

      What am I missing?

    5. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      “It’s a good list for the world at large, and I would like to see all the points happen, but I don’t think the US and Israel are at the point of succumbing to what is essentially unconditional surrender on their part.”

      The US/Israel may or may not be at the point of succumbing, but once again:

      1. They have very little of their radar system left to track Iranian missiles (maybe TERRA is still in place?? I haven’t seen anything about them being struck, but that’s about it). Their planes are so scared of being targeted that they are flying so far back from the front as to be only barely effective.
      2. They have almost no interceptors left
      3. They have almost no stand-off munitions left
      4. They cannot easily fly above Iranian skies to drop glide bombs
      5. They cannot rebuild their arsenals anytime soon (“soon” = literally many years)
      6. They cannot afford to rebuild their arsenals and modernize for a clearly new type of war
      7. They cannot afford to have Iran continue block the straits
      8. Israel can’t even afford to deal with the financial and economic costs of this war for a few more months
      9. The US population wants no part of this war and is increasingly hostile at Israel for pushing it

      So I guess they can wreak a bit more havoc, but the writing is on the wall. If they need to see more writing, that’s fine–I don’t think Iran particularly cares much either way at this point. Either way, most of their problems are not the types of problems that can be ignored or wished away–they are hard constraints.

      JMO, of course, and I am very often wrong (actually, I am much more frequently wrong than I am right)

  42. Wukchumni

    (USA looks again at it’s hand consisting of 9 high and a busted strait flush…)

    Pushes remaining chips into the center of the table and utters confidently~

    ‘All In!’

  43. htyul

    There’s a new post from Big Serge yesterday: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-insurgent-empire

    It’s an attempt to model and identify the theoretical implications the US’s campain as pure standoff.

    I am ignorant in military matters, but it feels late to the party – the trashcanistan modus operandi seems well established and recognised for some time already.

    To me, elements mostly missing are the following 1) pure standoff means exclusive focus on attrition of the capacity and means to generate military power; 2) consequently, the presentation of US campaign as succesfull is at best premature since unavoidable repercutions are yet to materialise for continental US; 3) many indicators suggest US calculus appears divorced from industrial capacity and attritional constraints (e.g. X years of production of Y munitions spent in Z weeks), while Iran’s approach appears to factor these in and affect the US’ power generation ability and projection capacity; 4) military munition and equipment stocks can be seen as buffers allowing to bridge over some temporary degradations of power generation and projection.

    Actually, this picture is more interesting if we use it to look at the Israel – Iran conflict.

    1. upstater

      Big Serge (posted at today’s links) declared the US the apparent winner. He’s over his skis. I think it is not so clear… particularly comparing the collapse of central authority in Libya and Syria to Iran today. There is at least a plurality of Iran’s population remains loyal to a religious and politcal ideology. Those places were not “civilizational states. Further, there is no land component like Libya and Syria that Bibi has said is essential.

    2. hk

      I think Serge’s post underscores the real lesson of the war: the fog of war, amidst all the cacophony of the modern media, is now thicker than ever and we have very little idea of what really has taken place.

      There are many questions that we don’t have good answers to:

      1. How badly has Israel been hit? US bases? We have many “excited” videos from here and there and sometimes downright absurd public pronouncements from both US and Israeli authorities. But notwithstanding the claims, we do know, form our correspondents in and around Israel, that the effect of missiles on ordinary Israelis, at least in Tel Aviv, have been relatively modest. The effects on US bases is even murkier: while they have been doubtlessly badly hit, aircraft are still operating from several of the badly hit bases–Prince Sultan certainly, possibly al Ubeid, and so on. Maybe signs of being too foolhardy, but perhaps also signs that the damages are not quite THAT severe–not enough to knock them completely out of service.

      2. How badly have Iranian air defenses been hit? There’s a lo tof obvious misinformation from all sides. We have reasonable educated conjectures, but the facts that we know are compatible with many and opposed, but not necessarily mutually exclusive, explanations. The number of downed US/Israeli planes is modest. Is this because US and Israeli aircraft are avoiding depths of Iranian airspace and the sortie density is relatively small? Is this because Iranian AD is badly attrited? Is this because Iranians are keeping their powder dry?

      3. Just how much aerial activity is there over and around Iran? The number of sites hit sems rather too big given what we think we know about munitions availabilities. The sustained sortie rate needed to achieve that kind of numbers seems larger than what we think is available to US and Israel (the number of serviceable planes, airfield availability, the distances involved and refueling aircraft serviceabilityy, and so on, not to mention the physical quantity of available munitions). But then we do get a lot of videos of damages from sites in Iran being hit, although we are still unclear on what exactly is hitting them. (JASSMS seem to be commonly pictured, and I think we are right to suspect that very few planes are flying into the heart of Iran…but what do we know, really?)

      4. The kind of developments that would allow for a better appreciation of who’s “winning” are next to impossible: the lack of both logistics and actual troops makes it impossible for US to actually march on Tehran and conclusively defeat Iran. Iran is limited to slinging missiles, so we don’t know how things stand in other dimensions. Since neither side is actually able to “defeat” the other side indisputably, we don’t know what their respective bargaining positions are. Now, one exception to this is the Strait of Hormuze: its closure is indisputable, as are the economic effects thereof, and it is reasonably clear that the military resources needed to dislodge them are lacking. So there’s that….

      Change the premises behind educated guesses a bit, it is not difficult to reach the same conclusion that Big Serge is drawing, that a dominant airpower can still do immense damage with relatively little losses. (Then again, there’s that Hormuz Strait thing, which doesn’t seem to draw Serge’s attention, so there’s that.) This murky and fluid informational environment permits Trump leeway to flip his positions on a dime, flitting one direction, then to another, and to yet another direction–nobody knows what’s going on, so how can we evaluate any of these claims? Paradoxically, it also allows Iran to hold steadfastly to their “maximalist” positions: are they “justified” on holding on to them? Who knows. We don’t know beter, other than the claims of grandiose victories are obviously not true.

      1. hk

        PS.

        In the big picture sense, there is only one thing that matters. Iran controls Hormuz. There’s nothing that one can do to dislodge them–the resources are lacking. But, to assess “lessons” of a war, we’d want to go into other aspects of the conflict–effectiveness of missiles, air defense, airpower, and all that, and we lack even the good factual premise to start looking into these things and, startingg from such divergent priors and wading through the murky informational space, it is easy to reach different conclusions as to what it is that we have just seen.

  44. Doggo

    I keep seeing reports of Iran’s new plan to use bitcoin to charge ships for Hormuz passage.

    If true (a big if), this has some serious implications.

    1) Previously, Iran was talking about using Yuan for payment. Why the change? Most likely explanation is that China said no to that idea. Reason for China saying no? According to Scott Ritter’s interview on Dialogue Works channel a few hours ago, China is pressuring Iran to come to a ceasefire and negotitated settlement soon and get the oil flowing through Hormuz again, because China’s economy is about to fall into the abyss, along with the rest of the world economy. Iran is relunctant (they are winning bigly and they have all the high cards) but going along with China’s efforts for now. This implies a growing rift between Iran and China.

    2) If shipowners really start paying $2 million per ship to Iran in bitcoin, would this not cause the price of bitcoin to skyrocket? Anyone currently short bitcoin needs to close out their positions ASAP.

    1. Safety First

      Couple of things.

      1. You pretty much have to spend Yuan in China, or at least through the Chinese financial system if you want to exchange it into something else. You can, hypothetically, spend crypto anywhere, irrespective of sanctions and central banking policies. In Europe, for example.

      Iran’s Big Thing over the past however many years has been self-sufficiency. This is partly why it’s taken them so long to ratify their assistance treaty with the Russians.

      I am not suggesting Scott Ritter is necessarily wrong, though he does blow hot and cold and overreact rather a lot. But there are alternative explanations.

      2. As well, there is the shipowner aspect. Not every shipowner has access to, or is willing to procure, Yuan – though, conversely, and here I speak from experience, not every company has access to or is willing to fund a crypto wallet (or even knows how!). We know at least some ship owners (Maersk) have been talking to Iranians about the technical details, it is just possible that the crypto-or-Yuan scheme is something they had suggested for their convenience.

      Again, a possible alternative explanation.

      3. I suspect the Chinese realize that, one, even ending the war tomorrow will not “fix” the global economy this year. And two, ending a war “badly”, so that it restarts again in six-twelve months, is by far the worse alternative than getting a final settlement once and for all.

      Of course they want a negotiated settlement as soon as possible – everyone sane does. But I somehow doubt that they’ll pressure Iran to give up a majority of their core demands. Some could be traded away, to be sure, like dropping all US sanctions since the Bush years (I am not even sure this is legally feasible, but who knows). But I would be very surprised to see Iran move off its nuclear program-missile program-Strait sovereignty triad, for example, and surely the Chinese understand this.

      4. The supply of bitcoin is still technically expanding, and will continue to so do for a long, long time (2140), though the rewards for miners will gradually tail off, the next reduction is in 2028. If you’re only talking 10-20 ships per day, and only half of them tankers, and only half of those pay in bitcoin, I doubt this will move the market (beyond speculation). On the other hand, higher volumes and quicker, yes, that might lead to a spike as shippers seek to prefund their wallets. But I don’t think we’re even close to there yet, as next to nothing is actually moving through the Strait.

      Also, too, Iran has said that “friendly” countries will be exempt. So China won’t have to pay, India won’t have to pay, Russia won’t have to pay. If you imagine that’s 80% of future actual Strait traffic (hard cheese for the Saudis), the incremental bitcoin demand will be in the “pfft” territory.

      I wouldn’t go short (or levered long) in any crypto on principle, since you can be hypothetically margin-called to death in a New York nanosecond, and since I personally view the crypto business as a variation of the greater fool scam. But for now, far too many chainsaws being juggled in the air to make a “close out now” call, in my view.

    3. alrhundi

      I’m not sure if this would be the case, but China has been consistent in not wanting the Yuan to replace the dollar, and maybe that is part of it? Another factor could be that Iran is a large bitcoin miner and has interest in legitimizing it or keeping it propped up.

    4. InquiringMind

      China may not want to deal with the attendant issues related to a greatly increased demand for offshore yuan…?

      Do Hormuz payments in bitcoin give bitcoin its first truly legitimate use-case…? (I guess from the POV of western nations, rogue Iran using bitcoin is not legit, though…maybe the opposite.)

      1. Revenant

        I wondered about this. Or Iran realises that customers may not be able to obtain Yuan. Or it may not be able to spend them.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          If they take payment in crypto, they can presumably convert it to another currency. They floated the idea of payment in rial. They could just as easily use it to “pay” Russia or China for services or key imports like food. China and Russia can create the currency at the government level.

          This was why the CIA was all for crypto, to move funds to all sorts of places and people.

  45. Ann

    France rules out immediate deployment of frigates to Strait of Hormuz

    https://caliber.az/en/post/france-rules-out-immediate-deployment-of-frigates-to-strait-of-hormuz

    Netanyahu: Israel wants to start peace talks with Lebanon ‘as soon as possible’

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-israel-wants-start-peace-talks-with-lebanon-as-soon-possible-2026-04-09/

    Israeli government secretly approves over 30 new settler outposts

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/09/middleeast/israeli-government-approves-west-bank-settler-outpost-intl

    Lebanon’s hospitals may run out of vital medical supplies within days, WHO warns

    https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hospitals-may-run-out-vital-medical-supplies-within-days-says-who-2026-04-09/

    What to Know About the Bab El-Mandeb Strait as Iran Threatens to Restrict Another Key Trade Passage

    https://time.com/article/2026/04/08/bab-el-mandeb-strait-iran-houthis-threat-trade-hormuz-war-ceasefire/

    Merz Says Germany Wants a UN Mandate to Secure Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/merz-says-germany-wants-a-un-mandate-to-secure-strait-of-hormuz

    Cash-strapped US Postal Service suspends contributions to pension plan

    https://www.reuters.com/world/cash-strapped-us-postal-service-suspends-contributions-pension-plan-2026-04-09/

    Republicans block Democratic bill to end Iran war amid tenuous ceasefire

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/09/war-powers-resolution-blocked-us-iran/89532831007/

  46. Jason Boxman

    In a recorded statement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said “there is no cease-fire in Lebanon” and that Israel is “continuing to strike Hezbollah with force and will not stop until we restore” security in Israel’s north. Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli military’s chief of staff, echoed the sentiment, saying that the Israeli military is at war and will continue to strike Hezbollah “with great strength.” Both statements came shortly after Mr. Netanyahu appeared to make a concession on Thursday by saying his country would start talks with the Lebanese government about trying to disarm Hezbollah, suggesting any talks would take place under fire.

    NY Times

    I dunno, I thought Lebanon’s government lacked the ability to disarm Hezbollah, and therefore this statement is less than meets the eye.

  48. Ann

    Pope Meets With Top Obama Adviser in Wake of Pentagon Threat | Pope Leo continues to snub Donald Trump.

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208864/pope-obama-adviser-pentagon-threat

    DNC committee shoots down resolution condemning AIPAC

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5823840-dnc-aipac-resolution-fails/

    US Catholics back Pope Leo as Trump loses support
    https://www.newsweek.com/us-catholics-back-pope-leo-as-trump-loses-support-11805555

    ‘Mental breakdown’: oil tanker workers stuck in Gulf for six weeks are reaching their limit

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/09/mental-breakdown-oil-tanker-workers-stuck-in-gulf-for-six-weeks-are-reaching-their-limit

    NSA Warning—Reboot Your Internet Router Now

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2026/04/09/nsa-warning-reboot-your-internet-router-now/

    America’s Closest Ally [UK] Breaks With Trump as His Iran Plan Goes Sideways

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/americas-closest-ally-breaks-with-donald-trump-as-his-iran-plan-goes-sideways/

    Woman With 3 Autoimmune Diseases Enters Remission After Immune ‘Reset’

    https://www.sciencealert.com/woman-with-3-autoimmune-diseases-enters-remission-after-immune-reset

    [That would be me. I have two auto immune conditions]

    Army Survivors of Deadliest Iran Attack Say Pete Hegseth Is Lying | Troopers that were injured in the attack say they were “unprepared.”

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208870/army-survivors-iran-attack-pete-hegseth-lying

    MAGA Media Seems to Have Hit Its Breaking Point Over Iran

    https://www.wired.com/story/maga-media-seems-to-have-hit-its-breaking-point-over-iran/

    Israel’s opposition slams Netanyahu’s ‘political disaster’, ‘strategic failure’ in Iran

    https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/565558.aspx

    Trump’s emergency orders pushing coal power are “illegal” as well as dumb

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/04/trumps-emergency-orders-pushing-coal-power-are-illegal-as-well-as-dumb/

    2. JonnyJames

      Hadn’t seen this new one yet nippersdad, thanks for the link. I have been listening to these every day. They/re brilliant: brutally accurate lyrics, beats, humor, animations.

    3. The Rev Kev

      The White House prided itself on pushing out such AI videos mocking other people but it looks like the Iranians have completely overwhelmed them and won this part of the information war.

  50. Timmy

    I fantasize about a South Park episode where Cartman discovers those – they are then exhaustively catalogued – and such trolling becomes his lifetime ambition for the school career day

  52. Bill B

    Danny Haiphong: Scott Ritter & Larry Johnson: Iran Retaliates, Hormuz CLOSED – Israel ENDS Trump Ceasefire
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sySgSUEnpO4&t=2128s

    Lots of good stuff here, including when Larry asks Scott to make a plan for the US to take the Strait of Hormuz, and a deep dive into the special ops raid to seize or destroy enriched uranium at Isfahan that went awry.

  53. Ann

    ICE moved detainees out of an overcrowded Mesa facility before congressional oversight visit.

    Population at the Mesa facility dropped sharply in the seven days after lawmakers announced their visit — then climbed again almost immediately after

    https://azmirror.com/2026/04/09/ice-moved-detainees-out-of-an-overcrowded-mesa-facility-before-congressional-oversight-visit/

    White House Can’t Explain Who Exactly Is Bombing Iran After Ceasefire

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208797/white-house-cant-explain-whos-bombing-iran-ceasefire

    Trump’s Wreckage of Social Security and Medicare

    https://prospect.org/2026/04/09/trumps-wreckage-social-security-medicare/

    Trump claims his three-word plan would set up GOP to ‘never lose another election’ — despite Tuesday’s blue tsunami losses – Trump laid out his plan for keeping Republicans in power indefinitely alongside Hungarian Prime Minister and ‘illiberal democracy’ proponent Viktor Orban

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-republican-election-plan-2028-b2861085.html

    The United States Is Self-Destructing Amid Empire Collapse: Dangerously wrong priorities will accelerate America’s decline.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/trump-2027-federal-budget-pentagon/

    Cuba’s president says he’s ‘not stepping down’

    https://www.nbcnews.com/world/cuba/cubas-president-says-not-stepping-down-rcna267456

    U.S. oil price jumps more than 3% as Iran controls access through Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-iran-accuse-us-of-ceasefire-breach.html

  54. .Tom

    Norman Finkelstein on Middle East Eye Unapologetic starting around the 26th minute

    I know that some people are harping on the fact that Trump agreed to negotiate according to Iran’s 10 point peace plan. I consider that meaningless. Do you think this man is able to even read the peace plan? No, I’m serious. He has no mental discipline to read the 10 points. And here’s the second thing. You think he cares? Can anyone be so stupid, so naive as to believe he even cares about a peace plan? Like his board of peace. He just creates these instruments for the spectacle and the grandeur. He doesn’t care about the details.

    https://youtu.be/4eg3yiYeQxc?si=Jiwl9XI2BGKvwDcS&t=1564

    1. curlydan

      Yeah, he’s a press release president. There will be no peace with Russia because of that. And only if the Iranians capitulate (why?) or get really arm twisted by the Chinese will there be peace with Iran.

  55. jp

    Ann’s link:

    NSA Warning—Reboot Your Internet Router Now

    I read this as that the NSA has just backdoored a metric tonne of old commodity routers, and they need you to reboot to activate the backdoor.

    1. ThirtyOne

      Curious timing. Firefox today flagged my router address as untrusted. Had to use the go anyway option. Logging in, I found there was a firmware update available. Release notes:
       Improved: Improve the Web GUI Security.
       Improved: Disable all VPN services by default.
       Corrected: An issue that Remote Management TOTP does not work properly.
       Corrected: An issue that the router did not send periodic information intermittently.

      All very vague, but I updated anyway.

  56. Trotsky Lives

    Didn’t find Big Serge’s latest Substack terribly edifying.

    Blah Blah Blah USA New Terrifying Era of ‘Stand-Off’ Warfare Blah Blah Blah

    Not occupying states anymore, just bombing the s**t out of them
    and walking away, is not some Radical New Thing the US has just discovered,
    it has been doing this since 1900 in Latin America, and the Brits long before…

    And as Serge notes himself the US doesn’t have the ammo or industrial capacity
    to maintain this kind of warfare anyway, so why is this nebulous New Order gonna be supposedly effective
    in terrifying the rest of the world into either total submission or arming themselves with nukes?

    Other weak points, but no point in going Full Talmudic…

    And his defense of the essay is very weird, it’s not written at all as if it was really just
    a description of what the USA is ‘trying’ to do at all, very strange defense.
    And if true, trying to impose some Grand Brilliant Strategic Vision to Team Trump is like
    studying a retarded toddler’s ‘strategy’ for getting fed.

    Just a very weak essay.

    I did like the ‘borrowing’ of Kotkin’s wonderful term ‘Trashcanistan’, in fact I recommend
    Kotkin’s earlier essay, a somewhat dated look at the ex-Soviet states, but far far better than this garbage.

    IMO Serge pretty good at Russia-Ukraine and some MilHistory stuff but out of his depth elsewhere I find.

  57. Wukchumni

    Oh, Bibi
    Oh, Bibi (Keep on)
    Come on, Bibi (Keep on doin’ it, right on)
    Mmm, mmm, mmm (Right on doin’ it)
    You got it together (Bibi, keep on)
    Oh, you got it together, Bibi (Right on, keep on doin’ it)
    Not giving up yet, Bibi, oh, not yet
    Mmm, mmm (My-my Bibi, keep on)
    I swear you got it together, Bibi (Keep on, keep on)

    Whatever, whatever
    Netanyahu, I’ll do
    Forever and ever, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
    I’ll see you through

    I’ve got to keep you pleased
    In every way I can
    Gonna give you all of our military
    As much as you can stand

    Make you not release anything Epstein right now
    That’s all I want to do
    I know you need it, Netanyahu
    And you know I need it, too

    ‘Cause I found
    What the world is searching for
    Here, right here, my dear Bibi
    I don’t have to look no more

    And, oh, my Bibi
    I hoped and prayed
    For someone just like you
    To make me feel the way you do

    Never, never gonna give you up
    I’m never, ever gonna stop
    Not the way I feel about you
    Bibi, I just can’t live without you

    I’m never, ever gonna quit
    ‘Cause quittin’ just ain’t my stick
    I’m gonna stay right here with you
    Do all the things you want me to

    Never, Never Gonna Give Ya Up, by Barry White

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpbhSlce_ek&list=RDQpbhSlce_ek

    1. chris

      I don’t know if the people who espoused this point of view will ever consider that it could be discredited. I think you almost have to build scaffolding around any conversation on this topic. You need to create the rhetorically reinforced space to discuss if criticism of a state is ever warranted, extend a beam towards the idea of it being possible for Israel to do anything that could be criticized, and then shore up that idea by discussing if criticism of a state quates to criticism of a people, and then sheath the concept with evidence that governments often do not represent their citizens. But since that entire structure is an attack on Israeli foreign policy (e.g., “How can there be innocent Palestinians?!?!”) I don’t expect anyone who believes criticism of Israel = Antisemtisim to take me up on building that kind of ddiscussion. They can’t accept that their position could be questioned so why engage in a discussion that is guaranteed to raise questions?

      I guess we might have a chance of breaking through if we were to mention Israel using nuclear weapons on another country. But I suppose these adherents would just claim it was justified. Since the US dropped bombs on Japan we don’t have the high ground on this front.

      1. Samuel Conner

        Perhaps it would be more effective, as a way of pressuring US, to insist that Israel “abide by” a ceasefire in Lebanon.

  60. Ann

    Iran attacks on crucial Saudi pipeline and production facilities slash kingdom’s oil output

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/iran-war-oil-saudi-arabia-east-west-pipeline.html

    Mexico’s President Sheinbaum Decrees Universal Healthcare for 120 Million

    https://thedeepdive.ca/mexicos-president-sheinbaum-decrees-universal-healthcare-for-120-million/

    Iran resolute to avenge late supreme leader, says Mojtaba, signals new phase for Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.firstpost.com/world/iran-resolute-to-avenge-late-supreme-leader-says-mojtaba-signals-new-phase-for-strait-of-hormuz-13998640.html

    White House calls new ballroom a national security necessity that’s ‘vital’ to the Trump family’s safety

    The administration indicated that it will go to the Supreme Court if the federal appeals court doesn’t rule in Trump’s favor.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-ballroom-national-security-necessity-vital-first-family-safety-rcna267482

    Keir Starmer: ‘I’m fed up’ with Trump and Putin affecting UK energy costs

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/keir-starmer-fed-up-trump-putin-uk-energy-costs.html

    Pakistan’s Asif says Israel a ‘curse for humanity’

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-892559

    NAACP, for the first time in its history, calls for 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office

    https://thegrio.com/2026/04/07/naacp-calls-for-25th-amendment-to-remove-trump-for-office/

    Donald Trump Rails Against Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens And Alex Jones For Blasting His Decision To Go To War With Iran

    https://deadline.com/2026/04/trump-tucker-carlson-megyn-kelly-iran-war-1236786114/

    What could have prompted Melania Trump’s sudden and unexpected statement on Epstein?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/melania-trump-statement-epstein-donald-emails-b2954855.html

    Scoop: Government Ordered to Turn Over Files on ICE Agent Who Killed Renee Good

    https://theintercept.com/2026/04/09/renee-good-killing-minneapolis-jonathan-ross-videos/

    Trump issues lengthy rant against former MAGA faithfuls he calls ‘losers’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-truth-social-maga-allies-turn-b2954909.html

    US judge orders Pentagon to restore press access

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us-judge-orders-pentagon-restore-press-access-2026-04-09/

    FBI goes after whistleblower who helped unmask the ‘Fort Bragg Cartel’

    https://reason.com/2026/04/09/fbi-goes-after-whistleblower-who-helped-unmask-the-fort-bragg-cartel/

    Trump Says Netanyahu Promises to “Low-Key It” Now: President Trump doesn’t seem to be fully grasping that his ceasefire is on the verge of collapse.

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208891/trump-netanyahu-promises-low-key-it

    The Middle East war depleted US weapons. Rebuilding will require China’s cooperation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/09/middle-east-war-weapons-china-00864622

    Insider trading accusations ignited amid well-timed US-Iran ceasefire bets on Polymarket

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/polymarket-iran-war-betting-congress-investigation-ceasefire-b2954880.html

    Donald Trump eviscerates his former biggest supporters: “nut jobs”

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-slams-tucker-carlson-megyn-kelly-candace-owens-11808287

    What America Has Lost in the War With Iran

    https://www.americanprogress.org/article/what-america-has-lost-in-the-war-with-iran/

    Hegseth Hatches Plot to Take Out Army Secretary in Middle of War

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208872/hegseth-plot-take-out-driscoll-army-secretary

    Trump Is Branding America. History Has a Word for That.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/trump-is-branding-america-history-has-a-word-for-that/

    1. hereweare

      “The Middle East war depleted US weapons. Rebuilding will require China’s cooperation.”
      I was expecting something like this.

      A key component of those interceptors is gallium, a critical mineral that is also used in other high-tech products like semiconductors.

      China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. And it has already proven willing to limit access.

      and

      Not only do interceptors rely on gallium for accurate threat detection, other heavy rare earth metals like terbium and dysprosium are key components in the missile targeting. China controls more than 90 percent of heavy rare earth metal processing. (Note re ‘other heavy rare earth metals’: gallium isn’t a rare earth metal.)

  61. Ann

    DOJ Says Laws Congress Passed to Prevent Another Nixon Don’t Apply to Trump

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2026/04/doj-congress-trump-nixon-presidential-records-fail.html

    Khanna: Netanyahu in Situation Room ‘a betrayal of the American people’

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5824427-khanna-slams-netanyahu-white-house-situation-room/

    White House considering punishing some NATO allies it says didn’t help with Iran war: Official

    https://abcnews.com/amp/Politics/white-house-punishing-nato-allies-iran-war-official/story

    Pentagon violated court order to restore press access, judge rules

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/04/09/judge-pentagon-press-access/

    Trump tells MS Now he did not ‘know anything about’ Melania’s statement

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tells-ms-now-he-did-not-know-anything-about-melanias-statement-2026-04-09/

    Trump Got Schooled by Iran. He’ll Never Learn

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-09/iran-war-shows-trump-is-getting-schooled

  62. Lee

    Running true to form: DNC rejects resolution condemning influence of pro-Israel Aipac lobby
    The Guardian

    When it comes to addressing how the party should deal with Israel, the Democratic establishment went to their favorite answer: no thanks…

    The defeat, while anticipated, lands as a fresh blow to progressives who have grown increasingly furious at Aipac’s intervention in Democratic contests. Aipac has spent more than $221m in Democratic primaries since the 2022 midterms, and over $22m in Illinois alone last month, funneled partly through shell groups with names such as “Elect Chicago Women” whose ties to the pro-Israel lobby were only confirmed after votes had been cast…

    The frustration runs deep, as rejecting Aipac’s support has become a defining issue in Democratic races, and polling consistently shows the party’s base has shifted sharply away from Israel since its decimation of Gaza began in 2023.

  65. ThirtyOne

    “A war that bumped the Epstein investigation to the back page for five weeks is going so badly that the First Lady of the United States makes an unscheduled, impromptu statement about the Epstein investigation.”

    https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2042417315405529202#m

    Didn’t a commenter here say the Epstein Investigation might come back to bump the war off the front pages?

  66. Wukchumni

    Hickory dickory dock
    Iran ran out the clock
    The Israelis struck Lebanon
    The louse chickened out
    Hickory dickory dock

    1. ThirtyOne

      Hickory dickory dock
      Melania came out to talk
      About the Epstein file
      And her hubby most vile
      Hickory dickory dock

  67. Ann

    CIA is trusting AI to help analyze intel from human spies
    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/09/cia-ai-intelligence-analysis-00865893

    Trump says Iran is not living up to ceasefire agreement in Strait of Hormuz
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5824878-trump-iran-ceasefire-strait-hormuz/

    Debate over US war crimes, illegal military orders returns with Trump threats against Iran

    https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/debate-over-us-war-crimes-illegal-military-orders-returns-trump-threats-against-iran

    Trump says Iran ‘better stop now’ if it is charging oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil-toll.html

    Trump weighs pulling some US troops from Europe amid NATO strains, official says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-weighs-pulling-some-us-troops-europe-amid-nato-strains-official-says-2026-04-09/

    Supreme Court hands Republicans an election win

    https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-republicans-election-win-ohio-ballot-dispute-11806812

    Iran Thinks It’s Winning the War — as Trump Looks for a Way Out

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/iran-thinks-winning-war-trump-looks-way-out-1235544221/

    Why colluding with King Donald’s insanity is the only game in town

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/09/donald-trump-insanity-ceasefire-iran

    Pete Hegseth preaches “maximum lethality.” What has that meant in Iran?

    https://www.vox.com/podcasts/485145/pete-hegseth-trump-defense-department-lethality-iran-war

    How 25th Amendment can remove presidents, why ousting Trump is unlikely

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/08/25th-amendment-remove-presidents-trump

    The U.S. Is Pushing Southeast Asia Toward China, the Iran War Made It Worse

    https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-u-s-is-pushing-southeast-asia-toward-china-the-iran-war-made-it-worse

    As US and Iran talk truce, Israel digs in for a ‘forever war’

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-iran-talk-truce-israel-digs-forever-war-2026-04-09/

    Pakistan Demands Immediate Halt to Israeli Strikes on Lebanon as Casualties Near 1,500

    https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/906727/pakistan-demands-immediate-halt-to-israeli-strikes-on-lebanon-as-casualties-near-1500

    Trump’s Billion-Dollar Bitcoin Blowout Exposed

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trumps-billion-dollar-bitcoin-blowout-exposed/

    The Costs of Trump’s Iran-War Folly

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/the-costs-of-trumps-iran-war-folly

    Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Urgent Bessent, Powell Warning to Bank CEOs

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-10/anthropic-model-scare-sparks-urgent-bessent-powell-warning-to-bank-ceos

    US may leave NATO to support Israel against Türkiye in Syria, says former intel chief Kent

    https://www.turkiyetoday.com/world/us-may-leave-nato-to-support-israel-against-turkiye-in-syria-says-former-intel-chief-3217765

    Saw the above in a tweet today from Cent Uygur, as well

    1. hereweare

      Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Urgent Bessent, Powell Warning to Bank CEOs

      It should be noted that, as the article and Anthropic say, banks such as JPMorganChase have been using Mythos Preview to find and patch software vulnerabilities.

      Today we’re announcing Project Glasswing1, a new initiative that brings together Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Palo Alto Networks in an effort to secure the world’s most critical software.

      We formed Project Glasswing because of capabilities we’ve observed in a new frontier model trained by Anthropic that we believe could reshape cybersecurity. Claude Mythos2 Preview is a general-purpose, unreleased frontier model that reveals a stark fact: AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.
      https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing

  68. alrhundi

    Trump posted a video of a woman being murdered on CCTV on his Truth Social… with what seems to be a call to escalate deportation.

  69. Acacia

    Laura Loomer on X thinks a coup is brewing at the Pentagon:

    Big effort right now by bad actors at the Pentagon to undermine @SecWar Pete Hegseth.

    Active coup underway. This has been in the works for a while. Now it seems like the mainstream media is starting to pick up on this coup.

    https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/2042258420611285399

    Seems she’s kinda worried about War Bro Pete Kegsbreath.

    1. Ben Panga

      There does seem to be resistance to Hegseth’s Christian-Nationalisation of the military. Larry Wilkerson has spoken a lot about this (see e.g. him with Glenn Diesen yesterday).

      Some kind of battle between Driscoll (with backing of alarmed secular officers) and Hegseth (who wants a loyal Christian military for many reasons including the upcoming subversion of elections attempt).

      Loomer obviously in the latter camp, both as Trump devotee and ChristNat lunatic.

      I suspect this battle, thus far under the radar, will be very important for the future of American democracy (and also for nations imperilled by US foreign policy).

  70. skippy

    Again … a bunch of financial elites funded Trump and his Captain picks to ring in ***their*** desired social/geopolitical reality. All theses people are high on their own supply, no idea of reality outside their small bubble and utopia is always just around the corner – it was written – by people they funded[tm] aka self reinforcement loops over generations.

    All made worse by the PR/Propaganda about fixing stuff via WWII et al and endless subjugation of other weaker peoples in spreading so called free markets and democracy of absentee investors. Now all the West is going sideways as FIRE sector econ [ neoclassical ideological numerology ] contends with the reality that Mfg drives everything in a social/economy and without it …. others will not only eat your lunch but, blow right past you i.e. just the military aspect alone.

    So in less than 10 yrs China, Russia, and now Iran have said … were not talking too you save theatrics but, at the same time, expose you to the whole world for who you really are … seeking rents and tribute so you can lord over everyone else in perpetuity. Westren media has been a huge agenda over the decades in shaping minds all over the world e.g. atomatisic individualism consumers both seeking happiness[tm] in consumption and fighting tooth and nail to receive the gifts of the market and its power in social status – better/superior than others.

    What a mindfk it must be for some in the WH and Pentagon to find out that they are not omnipotent, worse that everything they did for decades was not fit for purpose in this event. Yet that portends even worse events moving forward.

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