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Iran War: MSM Ceasefire Reporting Obscures Iran Agreeing to US Capitulation, Trump Depicting Different Deal; Israel Not a Party, States It Will Not Comply; Reason to Doubt Much Hormuz Traffic Increase Soon, Which Would Mean More Supply Pressure

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The press is amplifying market-soothing Trump claims that he has cemented a ceasefire “deal” with Iran and is on a path to a resolution of the war. But there are serious differences between what Iran has said it has agreed to, which is a US capitulation. The only concession Iran appears to have made is to somewhat reduce its Strait of Hormuz transit fee. By contrast, Trump depicts the two week ceasefire as a pause in his threat to end Iran as a civilization over a four-hour period, contingent on Iran fully opening the Strait…to which Iran has not agreed.

In addition, the Iran terms call for all hostile action to end, including of Israel against Lebanon. But Israel was not a party to this (non-convergent) agreement and is making minimally compliant noises while also reaffirming its intent to continue ethnic cleansing in Lebanon.

Now this turn of events is admittedly a lot better than where we were 24 hours ago, which was Trump threatening a bombing campaign against Iran that would have produced Iranian retaliation across the Gulf State which was certain, whatever form it took, to damage energy-related infrastructure so severely as to reduce energy output for many many years, risking as many warned, a global deep depression and even potentially a large rollback of living standards across the globe. If nothing else, this seems to signal that Trump is on a path to a durable TACO, as in he really has decided that he needs to find the most face-saving exit he can muster. Perhaps the same way only Nixon could go to China, perhaps only Susie Wiles could produce this shift

But just as Ukraine has agency in ending the war with Russia, so to does Israel in this conflict. This not-really-an-agreement was done over Israel’s head. Israel like Ukraine has ample means to sabotage And that is before getting to the fact that Israel has never honored ceasefires it actually did agree to, save when it used one to make a short pause for its military to regroup before resuming fighting.

And even though the US has high cards to play, such as cutting off ISR support, it has not done that with Ukraine and appears even less likely to do so with Israel.

And we also do not know where the Gulf States stand on this development. The UAE, Kuwait and the Saudis has been on board with escalation, even by some accounts, egging Trump on.

And this view charitably assumes Trump really wants out, as opposed to is simply trying to buy time after the fiasco of what looks like a failed raid on Iran nuclear operations to figure out what to do next. Trump’s default is to try to keep options open and buy for time. He likely still thinks if he can contain paper oil prices and thus hopefully gas and diesel prices in the US, that he can keep pressure of various sorts on to open up anther path. He may not understand that anything less than going back to pretty close to the old normal levels of transit through the Strait of Hormuz very soon means compounding real economy damage. More but less than a high level of traffic would only reduce the rate of intensification of harm.

Now to the divergences of positions. The key section of the statement of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on the ceasefire:1

In this plan, America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.

Understand that Iran has made no concessions whatsoever. Iran is still sticking to its guns of a US/Israel capitulation. It is not even offering a face-saving reduction in its transit fee:

We said from very early on that Iran would stop shooting at the US and Israel if they stopped shooting at Iran (which includes assassinations) but would not give up control over the Strait of Hormuz. That did not even require a discussion; this could have come about via what Professor John Mearsheimer likes to call a frozen conflict.

The at-least-sort-of-adult-looking official Administration statement differs in critical respects:

Later, the Supreme National Security Council states:

To this end, while rejecting all plans presented by the enemy, Iran drafted a 10-point plan and presented it to the American side via the country of Pakistan. It emphasized fundamental points such as controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran’s armed forces (which grants Iran a unique economic and geopolitical position), the necessity of ending the war against all components of the Axis of Resistance (which signifies a historic defeat for the aggression of the child-killing Israeli regime), the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region, the establishment of a secure transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz such that it guarantees Iranian dominance according to the agreed protocol, the full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates, the removal of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad, and finally, the approval of all these items in a binding Security Council resolution. It is worth noting that the approval of this resolution will turn all these agreements into binding international law and will create an important diplomatic victory for the nation of Iran.

This is simply na ga happen. Note “the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad.” Iran is (reasonably) asking for $100 billion in frozen assets back. It seems inconceivable that the US could swallow that, absent regime change.

There are other renderings of Iran’s ten points, and Richard Pape reacts to one. Note, however, that it does NOT track with the Supreme National Security Council position above. One has to wonder who is circulating something that is not accurate:

From Larry Johnson’s hot take on the “ceasefire”:

If you think the war is over, think again. Iran has not agreed to a ceasefire. They have agreed to stop retaliating as long as Israel and the US stop their attacks. So that ball is in the West’s corner. Despite the White House claim that the Strait of Hormuz is now open for business, it is not. Iran will continue to allow ships on a case-by-case basis to enter and leave the Persian Gulf after paying a cover charge. Iran will split this money with Oman. If Iran charges a million dollars — payable in Chinese Yuan — they will earn an estimated $96 billion a year. That will rebuild a school or two….

It was the US, not Iran, that has pleaded for the last four weeks to restart negotiations. Unlike the previous two times, Iran harbors no illusions about the capacity of the US to engage in treachery and trickery. Iran is not going to soften its demands.

The Zionists are going crazy over this and Netanyahu and his government are in a state of panic. If JD Vance succeeds in securing a deal with Iran, it will likely mean no more support for Israel’s war machine. If Israel launches any new attacks on Iran in the coming two weeks, Iran will immediately retaliate.

The wild card in this is Hezbollah. If Israel continues to attack Lebanon and the Hezbollah positions in the south of Lebanon, Hezbollah will continue to wreak havoc on the Zionist forces.

I e-mailed Johnson, who concurred with this reading:

I am appalled by the MSM reporting.

Nothing changes with the Strait closed.

And the US will not follow its side of the deal as in withdraw troops. Until we see movement this really is hot air.

And we know

1. Israel has never complied with a ceasefire and I gather it was not party to this deal

2. The US has been unable to constrain Ukraine and I doubt the US would do to Israel what is has failed to do to Ukraine, which is cut off sigint and targeting support

3. As you alluded, Iran will find it unacceptable that Israel is still trying to clear Southern Lebanon

I think it is not impossible (odds not high, maybe 10%, which is high given these givens) that Israel will again attempt to assassinate the negotiators…..which could even include Vance.

A few wags have also weighed in:

Iran remains wary:

And they should be. The US and Israel started hitting Iran bridges and Kharg Island before the 8:00 PM deadline.

But I did not see later reports indicating the damage was serious. For instance:

It will be revealing to see what Lloyds List, says, in that the publication reflect not just what insurers but also ship operators think. That will give an initial reading as to whether an apparent reduction in temperature in the Gulf will result in vessel owners being more willing to send cargoes through the Gulf (perceived physical risk was the biggest barrier) and whether insurers somewhat lower their war risk premiums (another obstacle). This story literally launched 43 seconds after I typed the immediately forgoing text, Shipowners and charterers prepare to move after US and Iran agree ceasefire:

• Several shipowners are planning swift exits from the Middle East Gulf in the wake of a two-week ceasefire
• Industry security officials warn that moving before new protocols are clarified could expose crews, ships and cargoes to heightened risk
• Despite political announcements promising safe passage, Iran’s controls over Hormuz traffic — including documentation checks, pre‑approvals and IRGC‑escorted transits — is causing industry hesitation and delaying immediate movement

A temporary US-Iran ceasefire has prompted shipowners to prepare rapid departures from the Middle East Gulf, where more than 800 vessels have been stranded since late February, but key terms of the truce and transit protocols remain unclear

Shipowners with vessels that have been stuck inside the Middle East Gulf since the Iran conflict began on February 28 are preparing for a swift exit following a US-Iran ceasefire that promises to temporarily unblock the Strait of Hormuz.

More than 800 ships are currently stuck inside the MEG, but shipowners and charterers with ships inside have confirmed to Lloyd’s List that preparations were being made on Wednesday morning to start moving their ships.

The immediate priority will be to move laden tankers out, however one charterer confirmed that they were already looking to price in ballast voyages following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday.

Key details remain uncertain: Iran says it has agreed to two weeks of safe passage in coordination with its armed forces and within “technical limitations”, while US President Donald Trump announced a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING”.

It is also unclear if the two have settled on transit payments, or when the truce takes effect.

Sp the priority is getting the 800 stuck ships out, with service-providers positioning themselves to take advantage of any inbound traffic. One has to think the latter depends on how well the departures go. And it would likely be easy for Israel to throw a spanner, if it has the reach, by lobbing some drones.

Again, contrast Lloyds List with more Trump barker patter:

And while we are on the topic of Israel, Netanyahu is only making cooperative-seeming hand-waves:

Others are more up front:

Mind you, these shows of belligerence contrast with alternative media claims that the IDF is cracking:

…and Israelis are increasingly doubting the war, and the real economy is taking major hits. However, as with Ukraine, at a minimum, there is a disconnect between the elites and ideologues and the general citizenry. So I would not underestimate the willingness to keep the war going even at high cost.

Hindustan Times (which is generally Iran-favoring) reports that Iran got in another punch at Israel after Trump announced the ceasefire. However, note that Lloyds List pointed out it was not clear when the ceasefire began, so Iran may not have been naughty:

And even with markets doing a happy dance with a big fall in oil prices, the below-the-waterline damage continues:

There is no relief in sight for jet fuel. Tourism is a big economic driver in part of the US as well as many parts of the world. Reuters pointed out, IATA warns replenishing jet fuel supplies could take months even if Hormuz reopened:

The head of a body representing global airlines warned on Wednesday it would take months for jet fuel supply to recover even if Iran reopened the Strait ‌of Hormuz, given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity.

More detail from an admittedly pre-ceasefire take:

Finally, readers may have noticed that your humble blogger has been very concerned about plastics supplies in Asia (and I am not entirely convince that the US will be entirely unscathed on this front). A colleague here told me yesterday about his girlfriend Rose: “Rose told me about a plastics factory in Bangkok that closed. Myanmar and Thai people lost their work… including some of Rose’s friends…Getting very real.”

Now there is some relief down the road in that China has adopted a technology originally developed by Germany (and later I understand abandoned by them) to use coal to make plastic. China even had plans underway to expand that sort of production before the war started. From South China Morning Post in January:

China is stepping up its efforts to use its vast coal reserves instead of oil to produce plastics and synthetic rubber.

Coal can be refined to make olefins – an essential raw material for tens of thousands of chemical products that include plastics, synthetic fibres and rubber.

While the mainstream practice is to produce olefins from oil, using coal can bring significant cost savings and might help to reduce the country’s reliance on imported fuel at a time when Donald Trump is seeking to expand US control over the world’s oil supplies.

In recent years, Beijing has approved a total of 36 projects – 20 of which are already operating – with a total annual capacity exceeding 24 million tonnes in coal-rich areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, China Science Daily reported.

The process will remain profitable so long as the oil price stays above US$35 a barrel, according to calculations by industry blogger PTGChemical.

But the story does not say when this extra capacity will come on line. Given the war, I would assume there would be a concerted effort to expedite it, but there are limits to how much you can speed up getting new factories up and running. But at least Asia has the prospect of getting some plastic supply sooner rather than later

Done for today! See you tomorrow!

____
1 From Middle East Eye:

The enemy, in its cowardly, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historical, and crushing defeat. By the grace of the pure and holy blood of the Martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Grand Ayatollah Imam Khamenei (Peace be upon him), the prudent measures of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the struggle and bravery of the warriors of Islam on the fronts—especially the historical, lasting, and heroic presence of you, the dear nation, on the scene since the very first days of the war—Iran has achieved a massive victory and forced criminal America to accept its 10-point plan.

In this plan, America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.

We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory and emphasise that until the details of this victory are finalised, there remains a need for the steadfastness and prudence of officials and the maintenance of unity and solidarity among the Iranian people.

Islamic Iran, along with the brave mujahideen of the Resistance in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine, has dealt blows to the enemy over the past 40 days that the global historical memory will never forget. Iran and the Axis of Resistance, as representatives of honour and humanity against the most savage enemies of mankind, have given them an unforgettable lesson after a historical battle.

They have so crushed their forces, facilities, infrastructure, and all their political, economic, technological, and military assets that the enemy is now plunged into collapse and desperation, seeing no path before it other than surrender to the will of the great nation of Iran and the honourable Axis of Resistance.

On the first day, when the criminal enemies of Iran began this oppressive war, they imagined they would succeed in complete military dominance over Iran in a short time and force Iran to surrender by creating political and social instability. They thought Iran’s missile and drone fire would be quickly extinguished and did not believe that Iran could deliver such a powerful response beyond its borders and across the entire region.

Global evil Zionism had convinced the ignorant President of America that this war would finish Iran, allowing them—after removing this last bastion of humanity and mankind—to comfortably commit any crime against anyone they wished from then on. They dreamed of partitioning dear Iran, plundering its oil and wealth, and ultimately leaving Iranians immersed in chaos, instability, and insecurity for many long years.

The brave warriors of Islam and their courageous allies in the Axis of Resistance, despite their hearts being wounded and torn by the martyrdom of their Imam, decided—relying on Almighty God and following the Lord and Master of Martyrs—to give these enemies a historical lesson once and for all. They chose to take revenge for all previous crimes and create conditions where the enemy would forever cast away the thought of aggression against dear Iran, fully tasting the flavour of humiliation and abasement before the great nation of Iran.

With this strategy and relying on the unprecedented political and social unity established within the country, Iran and the Resistance initiated one of the heaviest hybrid battles in history against America and the Zionist regime, achieving all the objectives designed for this conflict during this period.

Iran and the Resistance almost completely destroyed the American military machine in the region; they dealt crushing and profound blows to the vast infrastructure and facilities that the enemy had built and stationed around the region over the years for this war against Iran. In regional dimensions, they imposed extensive casualties on the criminal American army, and within the occupied territories, they delivered heavy and shattering blows to the enemy’s forces, infrastructure, facilities, and assets.

They so constrained the field on all fronts that not only were none of the enemy’s main objectives realised, but the enemy realised approximately 10 days after the start of the war that it would in no way have the capability to win this war. For this reason, it began attempting to establish contact with Iran and requesting a ceasefire through various channels and methods.

The honourable nation of Iran must know that, by the grace of their children’s struggle and their historic presence on the scene, the enemy has been pleading for over a month for the cessation of the fierce fire of Iran and the Resistance. However, the country’s officials—because it had been decided from the very beginning that the war would continue until objectives were achieved, including the enemy’s regret and desperation and the removal of long-term threats from the country—gave a negative response to all these requests, and the war continued until today, which is the fortieth day.

Furthermore, Iran has so far rejected several deadlines presented by the President of the United States and continues to emphasise that it grants no importance to any type of deadline from the enemy.

We now give tidings to the great nation of Iran that almost all war objectives have been realized and your brave children have driven the enemy to a historic helplessness and a lasting defeat. Iran’s historic decision, backed by the unified support of the entire nation, is to continue this battle for as long as necessary until its massive achievements are consolidated and new security and political equations are created in the region based on the acceptance of the power and sovereignty of Iran and the Resistance.

In this regard, and according to the prudence of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the approval of the Supreme National Security Council—and considering Iran and the Resistance’s upper hand in the battlefield, the enemy’s inability to carry out its threats despite all claims, and the formal acceptance of all the rightful demands of the Iranian people—it was decided that negotiations be held in Islamabad to finalise the details. This is so that within a maximum of 15 days, with the finalisation of details, Iran’s victory on the field shall also be consolidated in political negotiations.

To this end, while rejecting all plans presented by the enemy, Iran drafted a 10-point plan and presented it to the American side via the country of Pakistan. It emphasized fundamental points such as controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran’s armed forces (which grants Iran a unique economic and geopolitical position), the necessity of ending the war against all components of the Axis of Resistance (which signifies a historic defeat for the aggression of the child-killing Israeli regime), the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region, the establishment of a secure transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz such that it guarantees Iranian dominance according to the agreed protocol, the full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates, the removal of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad, and finally, the approval of all these items in a binding Security Council resolution. It is worth noting that the approval of this resolution will turn all these agreements into binding international law and will create an important diplomatic victory for the nation of Iran.

Now, the honourable Prime Minister of Pakistan has informed Iran that the American side, despite all outward threats, has accepted these principles as the basis for negotiations and has surrendered to the will of the Iranian nation. Accordingly, at the highest level, it has been decided that Iran will engage in negotiations in Islamabad with the American side for a period of two weeks, based solely on these principles. It is emphasised that this does not mean the end of the war; Iran will only accept the termination of the war once the details—given the acceptance of Iran’s preferred principles in the 10-point plan—are finalised in the negotiations.

These negotiations will begin in Islamabad on Friday, April 10 (21 Farvardin), with complete distrust of the American side, and Iran will allocate two weeks for these talks. This timeframe is extendable by mutual agreement. It is essential that during this period, complete national unity be maintained and victory celebrations continue with strength.

The current negotiations are national negotiations and a continuation of the battlefield; it is necessary for all people, elites, and political groups to trust and support this process, which is under the supervision of the Leader of the Revolution and the highest levels of the system, and to strictly avoid any divisive comments.

If the enemy’s surrender on the battlefield is transformed into a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this massive historical victory together; otherwise, we will fight side-by-side on the battlefield until all the demands of the Iranian nation are met. Our hands are on the trigger, and the moment the slightest error is committed by the enemy, it will be responded to with full power.

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354 comments

    1. Ignacio

      Being that the only real objective? The great strategy?

      Yet Mr. Market is running out of time to keep complacent and play with this while the rest of the world is running out of patience. Hormuz keeps closed and everyone hates Netanyuhuu, “Bibi” for friends and family, and bloody b@stard by my personal account.

  2. Oregon Lawhobbit

    And what about the possible Iraq/Kuwait rematch? Neither is a party to the above “agreement,” presuming it IS an agreement, and there certainly seemed to be a certain drift in that direction.

    It seems that just a few years of Gulf Tolls will equal out a lot of Iran’s frozen assets as well….

    But there just seem to be too many nagas in the mix for the US to agree to, so I suspect that in ten days or so, after some fruitless negotiations and a lot of C17s flying into the region, IIIII (Israel Iran III) will kick off.

    In the meantime, we can now return to our regularly scheduled Ukro-Russian slugfest….

  3. Hickory

    Historic indeed. With people worried about nuclear weapons going off last night, this is welcome.

    I agree with all Yves Smith’s words of caution, but there’s even more to be cautious about – is Trump really going to intentionally withdraw the remaining troops from the region and give up American basing? Or will Iran be satisfied with troops just not returning where they’ve been driven out?

    Will the US really vote in the security council of the UN to agree to its own capitulation in the most public of forums?

    Is the US really going to pay damages? Because those quoted segments from Iran don’t say “we’ll charge transit fees to pay damages in lieu of US paying reparations” – they separately describe “the full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates”.

    This is a truly epic level of rubbing-the-enemy’s-nose-in-it. Which obviously they deserve. Perhaps the outcome is simply a frozen conflict without any further interactions. I wonder if Iran would keep firing if the US just stopped fighting and still claimed victory, even though all Iran’s requirements were not met. Will Iran keep firing at Israel if Isreal is only attacking Lebanon? What if the US stops firing, but retains some basing in the region? So many questions!

    And best of all, two nuclear states attacked a non-nuclear state and lost, and at least so far, no nukes have been used.

    Anyway, thank you again very much for this excellent war coverage.

    1. Curious

      I think the big test here is how many ships transit the strait today (and the next few days). If it’s the same as before, nothing is really changing. Except Iran is not taking damage, while its main weapon is still firing.

      2. karma fubar

        And then do what? It looks like the priority is to get ships out of an active war zone, even if it means leaving with no cargo. So far, the news seems to be all about exiting and not entering the gulf. I am not sure what the turnaround time is for crossing the strait, loading a large tanker (at whatever facilities remain functional), then getting back out. I doubt any of those ships wants to still be in the gulf at the end of the 2 week “ceasefire”. So now you have a huge amount of empty tanker capacity servicing a significantly diminished volume of exportable oil. Some of this capacity may be taken up by increased transit times for new routes, but without the gulf oil flowing at normal volumes there will likely be a lot of parked empty tankers somewhere.

        No mistake, getting ships out of an active war zone is a big win for the ship owners/operators. But then what?

        1. Expat2uruguay

          My understanding is that there is a lot of oil currently in storage tanks in the Gulf region.

          Could those empty ships grab a quick fill-up before they transit out? I

          t might be quite helpful for the gulf states if they could have some storage capacity when they are able to start pumping again.

          Super thanks to naked capitalism for all of this fantastic coverage day after day!!!

        2. ISL

          Great name. I would have suggested scare quotes also around the “2 week” “ceasefire” as in when has Trump respected the calendar or promises…. Better exit in 1 week……

      1. The Rev Kev

        It’s only fair. I saw a video this morning where he called the Iranians “animals.”

      2. Frank

        I read the Iranian piece wherein they call the US prez ignorant. While I agree with all they said I could not help feeling that the author must have been channeling Ignatius Riley in “A Confederacy of Dunces.”

        2. .Tom

          “A firm rule must be imposed upon our nation before it destroys itself. The United States needs some theology and geometry, some taste and decency. I suspect that we are teetering on the edge of the abyss.”

    3. Lefty Godot

      It seems like the 10 point plan does not contain the demand that the US vacate all bases in the region and also substitutes the transit fee for the cash reparations originally asked for. So those were the “give” on the Iran side. I’m not sure what they get out of the 2 week respite, knowing that the US and Israel never keep their promises and use periods without major military activities to switch to their assassination tactics instead. It’s hard to see the ceasefire lasting, with Netanyahu already inventing exceptions for himself (as usual).

      I read something last night which I can’t find today that said Iran had 32 separate missile commanders who might not all get the news of the ceasefire in time to prevent a few more launches, hence the late hits on Israel after the announcement. Getting the American forces out of Iraq and Kuwait via proxy forces should be a priority for the Axis of Resistance. Maybe Qatar can get the US bases closed there and go over to the Resistance side, but Jordan, SA, and the UAE will probably still have a big US presence. Iran had better keep an eye on all those US ships in the Indian Ocean and make sure they stay far from shore, one way or another.

  4. Curious

    I remember from earlier articles here that the US only brought 4-5 weeks of ammo and they probably have run out. This is all really helping “flood the zone” out of what could have been a bay of pigs disaster for Trump with the failed raid.

    I cant wait to see how long the other actors in the US state will go along while giving Iran 100 billion dollars, ceding all the bases, letting them keep the nuclear program going, and effective control over 20% of the worlds oil supply.

    I believe Trump wants out sincerely, but I can’t see the US capitulating without more of a fight. Given how much a precedent it would set. But, it’s so much better than other possible alternatives. I’m hoping the capitulation continues but having trouble believing it’s possible for any duration of time.

    1. danpaco

      Trump has 2 weeks to spin this disaster away and change the narrative. If he can do that, we all win.

      1. Jason Boxman

        This reminds me of tariff taco, where ultimately we’re in a worse position, China asserted its dominance in areas such as rare earths, and Trump declared victory after making a mess for all Americans and moved on.

        But in this case, Israel is an independent actor, and will Iran simply let Trump stop firing and declare victory, leaving in place this new toll regime for the strait, and ignore ongoing logistical support for Israel should it keep shooting, even just in Lebanon?

        There are a lot of moving parts here; and certainly no trust of any kind by Iran of either Trump or Israel.

        The Market staying Bid might simply be enough for Trump to bask in his victory, if Iran ignores ongoing support for Israeli machinations. Meanwhile for the rest of us, Trump-flation is here!

        1. David

          It’s not that independent. A lot of It’s munitions are supplied by the US and if the US us running out of munitions that mean Israel is as well.

    2. ScotsBloke

      In that regard, has anyone seen or heard more about the pilot and WSO now they have been “rescued”? I haven’t.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Me neither. Seems like if he were safe and sound we could at least get a name and photo in dress uniform at this point. Every article I’ve seen so far just refers to him as the “airman”. In reading Iran’s description of the debacle surrounding the downed C-130s, they mention that the soldiers who were ostensibly rescuing the downed pilot did escape when other planes picked them up, but they were very vague about the “colonel” or “airman”.

        1. The Rev Kev

          What if this “colonel” was a biggie in the US intelligence community. And that they do not want to show his face to the media. The sort of guy that if his face was in a photo, that it would be blacked out because national security.

        2. tegnost

          The lack of info means the case is not closed.
          I get it that this is very low probability, but the raid imo could have been an elaborate ruse and right now there are 200 SOF’s in the mountains 10 miles from Ishfahan. Attack during negotiation is something regularly done in this particular theater. This whole “Oh, the diabolical people just gave up because reasons!” narrative is DOA for me.
          No matter what happens in the going forth, they are making shiploads of money well into the future. Great excuse to lower interest rates nudge nudge wink wink. and Austerity!

          1. nigel rooney

            I’ve literally no knowledge to claim, but I suspect you may be correct, on my gut feeling alone.

        3. S Domain

          In a recent post over at Dances with Bears, John Helmer identifies the colonel as one Amanda M. Ryder. To be taken with a heaping spoonful of NaCl until corroborated of course, but interesting nonetheless.

          1. lyman alpha blob

            Helmer isn’t the most lucid writer a lot of times so I might have misunderstood, but when he mentioned Ryder’s ID papers that were supposedly found at the “rescue” site, I took it to mean that she was one of the troops that came in on the C-130s, not the pilot who was shot down.

      2. Silo Man

        Funny you should raise this…I have been wondering about the lack of exposure. My darkest thought is no one made it out. There are no photos, interviews – as is being pointed out – or actual documentation as to how the rescue aircraft (alleged to be C295s) managed it in and out the midst of an active ambush. Both Iran and the US benefit from co-operating in keeping the lid on this. Blow back for both…

  5. Bugs

    I’m impressed that the White House issues statements in Apple Garamond.

    Think Different?

    1. The Rev Kev

      We should consider ourselves lucky that the White House does not issue statements using the Wingdings font.

    2. Alan Sutton

      You are a funny man.

      A new font will change the world!

      I doubt that’s what you meant but, whatever.. xxx

      1. Wilfred Rondeau

        myrsk et al
        It’s merely because General Pica won the war for the repossession of San Serif.

    4. DJG, Reality Czar

      Bugs: Indeed. But Claude Garamond was French, so he is a surrender monkey. Secret signal?

      What I find fascinating about the document is the language and style. You as a lawyer are a better judge of the lawyerly word choice.

      I as an editor and writer note a major change from Trump’s Xitter communications over the Easter Weekend.

      I suspect that some staffers got slapped around / knocked around. Whoever was helping Trump over the Easter Weekend is now in the doghouse (or DOGEhouse), at least for a few days. Or: Did Laura Loomer finally get expelled from the West Wing basement?

      The style of the statement is highly peculiar. Note that it has no hyphens, which is unusual for the kind of language used. Normally, it should be:

      double-sided ceasefire
      ten-point plan
      two-week period

      and conversely
      long-term (adjectival use, x 2)

      Whoever wrote up this latest communiqué doesn’t know U.S. style. Use of the commas is all wrong — I’m seeing mistakes now common among younger writers.

      Curious, given how blabby these people are. I know this is Kremlinology, but it may be possible to trace this highly peculiar style back to a specific staffer. Susie Wiles?

      To conclude: Trump also should never be allowed near the verb consummate.

      Or, even worse: Was this document generated by AI?

    5. Wukchumni

      If they were serious about an intermediary font, surely they would have used Helvetica?

  6. HH

    Israel’s quest for Mideast dominance is at an end. The arithmetic of missile warfare and energy economics have put an end to its expansionist dreams. Israel destroyed its reputation in Gaza and has lost its costly gamble on crushing Iran. All that remains is the long overdue removal of Netanyahu from power.

        1. hereweare

          On the terrace of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem [and shortly after denouncing calls for Israel to be boycotted], Mr Johnson said: “It’s very sad the meetings were cancelled. Some of them went ahead, they just went ahead without me. I think most people now feel that it was a goof, it was a mistake and this was a chance to engage with us.”
          https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/undiplomatic-i-need-to-stick-to-my-guns-says-boris-johnson-a3114106.html (2015)

          Britain’s former prime minister and the man who expedited his downfall reportedly buried their differences in a long heart-to-heart over whisky in Jerusalem’s King David Hotel last week, in what the Sun newspaper on Tuesday said was being dubbed the UK’s “Middle East peace process.”
          https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-rivals-cameron-and-johnson-make-peace-over-whisky-at-king-david-hotel/ (2016)

            1. hereweare

              Evaluating the region’s modernisation and evolving social values as well as its allies and partnerships further afield, the Tony Blair Institute reveals how the New Middle East is supportive of progressive change. …

              With destabilisation of the region by Iran unlikely to end, how can global cooperation against Iran’s influence be strengthened? …

              The pragmatism and values of people of the New Middle East make them natural allies for the West, reinforced by their largely positive views of Western countries. However, the openness to China and the growing influence of Russia could squeeze the role of the West further.

              Now is the time for Western partners to see the new opportunities for progressive change and help translate optimism into reality.
              https://new-middle-east-polling.institute.global/

      2. Steve H.

        > perhaps only Susie Wiles could produce this shift

        Coulter > Wiles: against “being dragged into another war in the Middle East.”

        Trump still needs ways to reassert his dominance (restore his potency). If he decides that Wiles betrayed him, he could have her handcuffed in the Oval Office as a foreign agent and frog-marched to a dark place. If I were her I would be terrified.

        1. tegnost

          I think the market mavens can sit him down and point out how much money they are going to make on broken supply chains and that might tamp him down a bit. Usrael can be convinced to some degree by this as being manna from heaven. Then they just go back to “fake it til you make it…”
          That said negotiators are again prime targets.
          As the Lawhobbit states above, “too many nagas”

      3. caucus99percenter

        Yes, who knows? The “mother of all false flags” may very well still be waiting in the wings.

    2. David

      The 250 plus people killed in Lebanon today would counter the idea that their quest for dominance is over.

  7. Nicholas

    So, in summary: pending but still premature to give Iran the ultimate NIMBY award – America fine just Not In My Back Yard.

  8. The Rev Kev

    At the moment there is some 800 ships stuck behind the Gulf Hormuz and all wanting to get out. All of them will have to pass through Iranian procedures to do so and pay the appropriate toll. It may be in Iran’s interest to drain all these ships from the Gulf on humanitarian grounds alone and through attacks on several ships, have proven that they have control over this region. The exit of all those ships will help ameliorate economic conditions in other countries, even though temporary. But here is the thing. There are a coupla hundred ships parked outside the Gulf right now. How keen will the shipping companies be to send them into the Gulf for new cargo? It may be that the insurance companies will have to send representatives to the Hormuz as part of this new architecture of passage. And of course those shipping companies are going to have to trust Trump and Bibi to start this war up again. What a time to be alive.

    1. Don

      “There are a coupla hundred ships parked outside the Gulf right now. How keen will the shipping companies be to send them into the Gulf for new cargo?”

      Well, the fact is that they have been keeping them there. Reads like a tell to me.

      1. David

        Probably the first reason being they hoped it would blow over.

        But there are logistical reasons as well. Where exactly do you send them? I doubt there are enough port spaces for them all to be laid up temporarily.

    2. pjay

      Well, there have been many “complaint” noises as well – coming from Zionist/neocon war-mongers. I wouldn’t call them “minimal” though.

      https://x.com/caitoz/status/2041700397094728004

      I will remain skeptical until proven otherwise. But like Caitlin, I’ll take the screeching of these miserable ***** as a positive sign.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Lindsay Graham has been bitching how the Iranians are now in charge of that Strait and will be charging tolls. He finds that intolerable but hasn’t suggested a solution that would make him happy – except the destruction of Iran that is.

  10. Revenant

    Two thoughts occur to me, one of which makes me feel stupid for not seeing it earlier.

    First, the transit fee. $2m is a lot for low value bulk cargo. Could it be that Iran’s plan is not merely to toll GCC petrochemical production but also to force centralisation of non-petrochemical GCC traffic on Bandar Abbas, so that urea, sulphur, aluminium etc are all transhipped via Bandar, possibly even produced there in the first place (I.e. the destroyed plants may never be rebuilt in the GCC states)? Transhipment via Bandar or other Iranian ports (or Omani ports, e.g. Salalah) would mean no fee. The tolls may be an economic development tool as much as charging a rent.

    NB: alone of the GCC, Saudi Arabia can avoid this by locating industry on the Red Sea coast but with the precedent of Hormuz, Yemen and Djibouti could in future close the Bab El Mandeb strait and enforce a similar regime in the Red Sea. The Egyptians would sorrowfully raise the Suez transit price to match. :-)

    The second point is that the location of Pakistan for the talks is interesting. Pakistan is as much in China’s orbit as it is the US’s; Pakistan has placed Saudi Arabia under its nuclear shield; and Pakistan is an enemy of Israel by dint of India having allied with Israel. So the US and Iran and the GCC is the shape of Saudi can all feel comfortable with the host.

    Can Israel feel comfortable about attempting an outrage on the peace talks, when Pakistan is a nuclear power and China stands behind it? I don’t think so. If they do, it will be a false flag attack, probably pinned on Baluchi militants (whose separatism from Iran and Pakistan and opposition to China’s Gwadar BRI project make them plausible attackers of at least three of the parties and whose historic sponsorship by the USA in the past further muddies the water).

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Please see my comment!! This is fucking MSM misreporting.

      As I just wrote:

      This is another case of crap MSM reporting. The $2 million is for VLCCs (super big crude ships) as in very big and high value shipments. And IIRC this was for ONE Indian tanker when Modi had massively sucked up to Bibi right before the war.

      I think they are letting bulk cargo ships of not-unfriendlies (like the French carrier owned by a Lebanese family that has done a ton of charity work in Lebanon) and Thailand for free. So I think they have a menu of charges, which includes 0.

      Having said that, yes I imagine they will charge top dollar to Gulf states’ oil carriers and judiciously stiff charges for their lower-value cargoes. If I were them, I would be nice only re food.

      Will they let any US or Israel connected carriers through? They might go Japanese passive-aggressive and hang them up a long time in transit with proctological-level inspections (not unwarranted) in lieu of barring transit.

      1. Alan Sutton

        With respect. Details are not important.

        As Yves and NC people has stressed: ANY control of the Strait during or, especially AFTER the war is a Major Strategic loss by The Empire.

        That is the main point of the 10 Point Peace Plan.

        1. Revenant

          Clearly the Strait is a loss to the Empire but it is also an opportunity to Iran in other aspects and that’s what I had not noticed.

          If Iran can free itself from sanctions, it can be a major industrial power, by dint of its natural resources in energy, commodities and educated population. It can be the same kind of “gas station with(out) nukes” as Russia. And by controlling GCC terms of trade by controlling their shipping costs, it can draw future industrial investment disproportionately to itself from the GCC.

          I note the point about variable tariffs but that’s a nuance, the question with a toll is what you do with the friction you can insert in your neighbours’ economies.

          1. Alan Sutton

            Yes, well, subtle and awful for your enemies.

            Not a simple enough reason though.

            A toll on the straits forces the “reparations clause” of the 10 point plan to the front of the negotiations.

            Obviously Iran wants this. To force your enemies to pay tribute is a major goal of war.

            If Iran makes Trump do this …sheeit who did that to Uncle Sam before?

            Nobody.

          2. hereweare

            By dint of its natural resources in energy, commodities and educated population – and its location.

            1. Revenant

              Yes, I wrote that originally myself then deleted it in a fit of logic because its neighbours share its location in a thereabouts sense (fulcrum of Asia, Africa and Europe) and I was thinking of it relative to its neighbours. But in absolute terms? Absolutely!

      2. JohnH

        It’s a great question–does “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” include warships going the Bahrain, the Navy headquarters? Hard to imagine…

    3. David

      Passage of Suez can be over a million for larger ships. Panama can be up to 4 million to get priority going through. They can however, be much lower depending on size of ship, cargo and timings. Now there are differences. Suez and Panama have maintenance and operational costs which the straits do not.

      The interesting bit I thought is that they propose sharing the fee with Oman. A good token for them to throw out and present as the reasonable party.

      But one thing to remember is that these are initial demands and claims. It is entirely possible they are making demands that are initially much more than they would settle for.

      1. turtle

        I think I recall that Yves herself mentioned a while back in comments on this war that the strait needs to be dredged regularly to allow passage of the larger/deeper ships, so there is some maintenance. Hopefully I’m not misremembering.

  11. AlphaSeeker

    Taco bar is open once again for a limited time. Closing time is Friday night, take profits while you can.

  12. Al

    From the Iranian statement, the actual negotiations will take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. Would Israel be able to throw a spanner into the works? I would assume the ISI and Pakistan state security/military will be on high alert.

  13. ChrisFromGA

    Very odd reporting from the MSM, it is almost as if the monkeys didn’t get their sheet music from the organ grinder.

    The Hill characterizes it as “resetting the timer” and refuses to put the dreaded “C” word (ceasefire) in the headline:

    https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/5821182-donald-trump-iran-ceasefire-negotiations/

    Yet, Politico calls it a ceasefire, while noting that the hawks (neo-con ‘splodey head alert!) aren’t thrilled:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/07/world-exhales-as-us-iran-agree-to-ceasefire-00863360

    One big problem for re-escalating is that the markets think this whole episode is over. If it blows up again in two weeks, we’re going to see treasury yields approach 5% and oil back over $100/bbl.

    1. Martin Oline

      Yes Chris, the MSM is really quite a ***show. I was watching some CNN to find out how they spin it but then they broke to cover the Pete Hagsdeath press conference so I turned it off. Peace of mind can become pieces if you let it.
      It is very mild down here in southern Florida: the afternoon rains have returned, cooling the temperatures; the jasmine tendrils covering the porch have bloomed, releasing their sweet, cloying odor; many trees are in bloom, including the weeds, and a super el Nino promises respite from major hurricanes this year. It is so much better to unwind on the porch with a book and enjoy the weather, perhaps celebrating with a droolie nap. More beneficial than being inflicted with deception from the Susie Wiles network.

  14. Oregon Lawhobbit

    Hmmm….. The 800 trapped ships will be a tidy [counting on fingers] 1.6 billion dollars to get out.

    But if it’s 2 megabucks to “transit” the Strait, does that mean 2 to get in and another 2 to get out?

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      This is another case of crap MSM reporting. The $2 million is for VLCCs (super big crude ships) as in very big and high value shipments. And IIRC this was for ONE Indian tanker when Modi had massively sucked up to Bibi right before the war.

      I think they are letting bulk cargo ships of not-unfriendlies (like the French carrier owned by a Lebanese family that has done a ton of charity work in Lebanon) and Thailand for free. So I think they have a menu of charges, which includes 0.

      1. Oregon Lawhobbit

        Sure! And doesn’t consider the split with Oman or the possibility of even HIGHER charges for those special “procto-ships.” That it’s the number that’s bandied about does not, as you say, make it the correct or final one.

        To paraphrase, “Past payment performance does not guarantee future payment performance…” ;-)

    2. Steve H.

      > Iran is (reasonably) asking for $100 billion in frozen assets back.

      Trump had announced a reinsurance program for tankers. Could the frozen assets be used as a slush fund for this, &/or transit charges?

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        No, that scheme has gotten nowhere. That announcement is over a month old.’

        That is still Iran’s money under the law even though they cannot get at it. The US cannot steal it

        The EU backed off from trying similar schemes with the Russian frozen assets (despite intense pressure by Ursula von der Leyen) because Euroclear demanded indemnification for the full amount. Whoever the US custodian was would do the same. Russia (or here, Iran) could haul the custodian into court in any jurisdiction in which they operate. Hong Kong has British law courts, would take the terms of the contract seriously, and would not bend to US pressure.

        So trying that might actually allow Iran to get its $ via a judgment against the custodian.

        2. JMH

          Tolls for the righteous and the back of a hand to the others. Tolls on a sliding scale? Certainly, but there will be tolls. Iran will retain control of passage through the strait. The means to enforce control are in place and everyone knows it. Warships passing through? If no American bases in the gulf means NO American bases in the gulf, no American ships are passing through unless they choose to try it under fire. Warships of other nations? I doubt it. You want to visit? Try Bandar Abbas or Chabahar. Once it sinks in that the tolls will be lasting, the cost will be factored in and soon forgotten. I recall reading or hearing it said that for a VLCC $2 Million is about one dollar per barrel. People and outfits used to having it their way and dictating conditions will settle their ruffled feathers and soothe their bruised egos and get back to the only thing that matters to them, making money. The strong do what they will. The weak do what they must. In this particular here and no, Iran is the strong. It would be no surprise if Israel and the US try another round or two, but unless they can manage a knock out, the new rules will be lasting.

          1. Jason Boxman

            Heh, just like Trump giving China the grand opportunity to assert its dominance over the US in rare earths. This guy leaves everything he touches worse than he found it, while convincing himself that his manhood is bigger than ever.

          2. David

            It could be a stick to beat the Gulf countries with before offering a carrot. There will be a lot of pressure on the Gulf countries to offset these fees from shipping companies and the purchasers of the goods.

            Warships get charged for passing through Panama. That was one of Trump’s complaints last year.

        3. Oregon Lawhobbit

          The US cannot steal it.

          [Various American tribes, Yongsan, Okinawa, a bunch of “territories,” Mexico, and many others have entered the chat]

          Maybe if you add “legally” to the sentence?

  15. Alan Sutton

    I wanted to comment before I went through this post of Yves’ tomorrow as I usually do.

    Being in Australia, when I wake up this thread is usually at least 11 hours old.

    I looked tonight because I was glued to the media with such important happenings.

    The AbC and the BBC provided some context but then this from Yves shows the reality below the headlines.

    Poor old Trump.

    I just want to know how he got the Epstein whip off his back to do this.

    Or if he didn’t how will it play out? Netanyahu already says it does not apply to Lebanon.

    Iran will have to stop any of that Zionist murder.

    1. Alan Suton

      And, I must say, to the accompaniment I hope of hordes of commenters,

      Thank you Yves.

      For the first place to go for info without bias. But with a good attitude.

  16. Valiant Johnson

    If ship routing does not return to the regular shipping lanes within a few hours it will show a complete surrender by the U.S.A.
    If I am reading the marine traffic web site correctly it seems as if many ships in the Gulf have started moving again. In what direction is unclear. If they head for the northern pass through the islands, Iran is winning the war (so far)

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      It isn’t. Please refresh your page and re-read. Lloyds List says not, shippers are still cautious.

      Iran never closed the Strait. I keep using that nomenclature even though inaccurate. The closure was mainly due to shipper and insurer risk assessment.

      Iran did shoot at some unfriendlies (IIRC recently a Kuwait vessel) and a Thai flagged cargo ship (which I think was a mistake, Iran seemed embarrassed and very quickly let another Thai-connected vessel out for free)

      1. Revenant

        My understanding from Realist War Twitter is that turning your screws got you a visit from an Iranian small boat inquiring about your intentions and advising you of the consequences to not staying put or seeking a laissez-passer. So, while Iran did not “close” the strait and let a handful of non-Iranian ships out each week, it very much controlled / coerced the traffic.

      2. Oregon Lawhobbit

        Iran never closed the Strait. I keep using that nomenclature even though inaccurate. The closure was mainly due to shipper and insurer risk assessment.

        May I suggest that what we’re looking at here is the difference between what my Torts professor used to call “cause” and “proximate cause?”

        The proximate cause of the “closure” is certainly due to “shipper and insurer risk assessment.” However, comma, the CAUSE of that “shipper and insurer risk assessment” is definitely the actions (threatened or actual) of the dotgov of Iran.

  17. ChrisFromGA

    Rut roh:

    Pakistan’s prime minister has invited delegations from Iran and the US to Islamabad for talks on Friday. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance, who today described the ceasefire as a “fragile truce,” are expected to attend.

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-ceasefire

    Not those two knuckleheads, again – Witless and the grifter. A couple of real clowns. We probably won’t make it to the weekend without the ceasefire collapsing.

    I suppose Vance is there to play the role of the adult in the room and correct the other two when they try to start a food fight with pudding and other signs of bad table manners.

    1. Samuel Conner

      OTOH, they can’t be pleased with what happened after the last round of “negotiations” was, um …, interrupted. Perhaps they will be chastened.

    2. Kilgore Trout

      Re: “adult in the room” Vance: the man who believes UFOs are “demons”. The contrast between the 2 sides could not be starker. And which side is really being led by messianic religious zealots?

    3. Alan Sutton

      ChrisFromGA

      I know you must be pretty pissed off but please let me tell you, your description made me laugh out loud.

      Thanks!

    4. mrh

      Vance will be there as a human shield – to prevent Israel from bombing the talks again. He’s the red line.

      1. Yalt

        I thought maybe that was Witkoff and Kushner’s role–surely Israel wouldn’t hit them.

        Subhuman shields, as it were.

      2. Oregon Lawhobbit

        “The bombing wasn’t by Israel, it was by those rabid Iranian terrorists bent on world domination.”

        That would be the story presented to the groundlings and the Trump regime and MSM would stick to it. Besides, it looks like Vance’s popularity is higher than Trump’s, so “two avians, one lithite” and all that.

        @Kilgore: How can you tell they’re not demons? They’re “unidentified,” after all, and the world is chock full of things that “science” assured people couldn’t exist and yet … here they are. The coelacanth being one of my personal favorites… ;-)

    6. Dan

      I wouldn’t be surprised if both Witkoff & Kushner are only negotiating realty deals for themselves. Affinity Partners are due some serious Saudi funding in August for the EA deal.

    1. Ignacio

      First: congrats for your reporting. Better (and shorter) than awfully long podcasts, not to mention MSM outlets very well behind you.
      Second: it seems that the “Moderation Nightmare” is fading away. Congrats too.
      Third: i just hope this ceasefire keeps and prolongs and regime change or something comes to Israel. They in the past showed tenacious but then they probably had more friends and less enemies while these days they risk being isolated globally.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        Thanks (and to those who made similar comments yesterday) re no podcasts.

        When I would appear on them (mainly Gonzalo Lira) I found they took a lot of prep time, as much as a post. Admittedly I don’t think as many took the care that I did to have data at hand.

        And I don’t mean to make an example of him but you may have noticed that I often quibble with Michael Hudson when I run his interviews. He like many gets pulled by the interviewer into addressing topics where he is not expert or just being imprecise. His written work is SO much better! I keep chewing him out about podcasts as effectively diminishing him but he likes the profile.

        1. Alan Sutton

          Who wouldn’t!

          Hudson’s books are superb. He is a better writer than a talker.

          Trouble is, he is probably wondering, like most of us old nonkers, who reads books anymore?

          Even him with with a good job in Academe!

          1. Jason Boxman

            I noticed that about Hudson, too, his books that I’ve read are excellent. I wasn’t sure it was the some person when I finally listened to a podcast. Interesting, but the written delivery is definitely better.

        2. juno mas

          Yves, the format that you’ve developed for reporting on the Ramadan War is exquisite. Your writing (text) is compact and video additions complementary. It makes it easy to scan for important info of interest, then double back to the video for context. This allows for efficient use of my time. Thanks for the immense effort you put forth.

        3. Pearl Rangefinder

          Just to add to the contrary (because of course :)), I’m a fan of the podcast and youtube interviews, they are something I try to catch when I’m driving or doing something else and I can put it on in the background, or watch while having lunch, etc.

          I actually originally found this wonderful website of yours years ago via an interview you did for TV; I think you were promoting your book Econned at the time? So this was waay back. It was with Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert on the BBC I believe? Their show was also the same place I found Michael Hudson, as Keiser was quite fond of Hudson and had him on his show regularly. So the ‘podcast circuit’ (or its equivalent back then) was certainly worthwhile to me!

  19. jefemt

    I had no idea that Kick The Can could be so emotionally exhausting.
    Planetary limits and misallocations abound, but there is no shortage of ubiquitous cans to kick.

    “….Big Money Will Be Made….”
    DJT

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I am not about to dignify Simplicius when he puts an utterly misleading headline on his article. And he bloviates a ton at the top.

      In general, his reporting on the Iran war has been inferior to that on Ukraine, although he did do a good job on the botched special ops in Iran.

    2. lyman alpha blob

      The Zionist entity could not be more fragile little snowflakes. From the 2nd link –

      “Several others were treated for acute anxiety, MDA added.”

      Really, they slaughter 168 school girls without apology, but feel the need to note that some of their people are anxious?!!?? Strike up the symphony of tiny violins.

  21. .Tom

    Israel and USA were facing exhaustion of defensive and offensive munitions. The fancy AD radars were gone. They were unable to find or neutralize Iran’s weapon stocks or launch capability so they bombed citizens and civilian infra instead. Iran established de facto control of Gulf shipping. Israel was taking a beating. None of that gets better over the coming weeks for the USA or Israel.

    I know it’s just my wishful thinking but Trump’s smart move now would be to study Tucker Carlson’s shtick and blame it on Netanyahu and Zionist capture of DC. He’d have to distance himself from Witkoff and Kushner. As you may know I don’t accept the notion that the USA is Israel’s puppet but that doesn’t mean Trump can’t incorporate it.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      I don’t see signs of Taco distancing himself from those two. He’s doubling down on Bozo-world, sending them off to Pakistan with Vance. I hope I’m not wrong but this seems ominous. Maybe Vance is being sent to keep them in line.

      1. Samuel Conner

        The thought occurs that to have excluded Kushner and Witkoff from the current round of negotiations might convey a hint of blame on them for the failure of the prior round (I have the impression that there is some validity to this view). It may be that DJT is not ready to throw them under the bus in this way.

        It will be fascinating to observe the messaging from US principals as the new talks proceed. The current Iranian non-negotiables are far less favorable to US than what was seemingly agreed as of 27 February. US spent a huge amount of material resources and further trashed its reputation and achieved a dramatically worse outcome.

        —

        Time to get started on that addition to Mount Rushmore.

        1. Pokey

          I am amazed, disappointed, and somewhat confused that Iran would discuss de-escalation with Witkoff and Kushner in the same room.

          1. John k

            I thought Iran had said they wouldn’t negotiate with those 2. Pretty murky, maybe they’re being sent to watch Vance.

      2. jrkrideau

        Does the USA have ANY actual diplomats with serious experience in high-stakes negotiations?

        Sending a financial guy and two Zionist, grifting, real estate developers makes me think the US is not sending the first team.

        If Abbas Araghchi goes as part of the Iranian negotiating team he alone probably has about 100 times the experience of the three stooges and he probably has a mob of experienced diplomats/negotiators and subject matter experts to draw on.

    2. JohnH

      If Trump does decide to chide Israel or blame Netanyahu, it will be a sight to behold. I’d buy tickets for that one!

      1. Samuel Conner

        Channeling Michael Wolff’s descriptions of DJT, he may indeed want to shift blame, but he may also want to preserve his self-conception as smartest person in the room. Admitting to having been tricked or manipulated into the conflict would not be a good look.

        It will be hard to come out of this looking like a “winner”.

  22. Aurelien

    There is a sentence in Aragchi’s statement, which is short and intended for international consumption, so shorn of the propaganda, which manages to say a great deal in a few words.

    “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”

    Note first that the period is precisely defined, and there is no express or implied undertaking that the Straits will re-open afterwards. Moreover, there’s no association made with the earlier statement about ending the use of force. So it’s quite possible that in two weeks the Iranians will simply close the Straits again (“we never promised anything more”) while continuing their defensive posture. This leaves Trump with nothing, and his advisors have presumably told him that anyway Iran has the ball now.

    Notice also that safe passage will only be “possible.” It’s not certain, normal, automatic or like it was in the past. It’s just that it’s not “impossible” any more. It’s subject to two criteria. One is “coordination” with the IAF, which in practice means asking permission and probably paying a fee. The other is “technical limitations,” a good old standby which can mean anything–most probably a limit to the number of ships per day–and in effect amounts to “we’ll let you pass if we feel like it.”

    The whole statement is very well-written (and indeed a lesson for the US) and in practice gives away nothing and promises nothing.

    It’s best to regard all these statements and any “negotiations” that may take place as froth on the surface. Both sides I think now understand the realities, and the US realises that it cannot achieve its objectives militarily and probably not at all. The most likely outcome is that nothing is ever signed, and perhaps no real negotiations take place, but that the US disengages gradually over a period of months, and a de facto situation exists in the region much as the Iranians want, but with nothing ever being made explicit. Sanctions can be lifted gradually, in the hope that no-one will notice. Trump can then claim victory or something.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Thanks for the attention to Araghchi’s statement and your parsing. I was also on for Links and so had less time than was ideal to get on top of the “ceasefire”.

      1. John k

        I appreciate all that you do, but please pace yourself, imo sleep and health should come first.

    2. Ignacio

      The MSM should now make an effort to find some way of reporting which paints this as a triumph for most of the world, and how Trump was so able to push for it. This at least if they want to avoid a longer term nightmare. If not, we all know where the PR arm of the PMC belong (some shitty place).

      It is interesting that the first MSM report i found about this (at El Pais) went more or less in that direction.

      1. Kilgore Trout

        Yes. Even to the point of giving Trump that Nobel Peace Prize he seems to covet. Then he might finally go away and stay gone.

    3. Alan Sutton

      I agree.

      Given the importance of the Straits ultimately the spice will flow.

      Some factions or families will fall others will rise. We have been conditioned by The Game Of Thrones to see international politics as a Trumpian zero sum game.

      But, it isn’t often like that. Like WWI. Or WWII.

      Maybe the transactional approach is easier?

      1. ChrisFromGA

        The climb down by Taco was predictable based on the phrase you used, well-known to readers of Dune.

        Too many financial rackets depend on that spice. Insurance scams, futures markets, etc. Now the Iranians get to participate in the skim.

        Tacos idea of partnering with Iran to share in the spoils seems like one of his rare good ideas … I doubt that the Iranians will go along, though.

        1. The Rev Kev

          They could point out to Taco Trump that he said that the US does not even use the Strait of Hormuz so why should he get paid anything if that is so.

        2. fjallstrom

          Give Trump and his sucsessors personally a cut each month that the US abides with the terms of the deal. Might become the only treaty the US respects.

    4. hoki_haya

      You read it correctly, as you often do and which is much appreciated. ‘intended for international consumption’ = people left with half a brain? beat the retreat.

    5. ISL

      I found the term “technical limitations” very reminiscent of Russian language of “military technical” considerations. In practice, this has meant using a range of military platforms and strategies to achieve political aims. In that regard, technical limitations will be to achieve Iran’s political aims (not Trump’s).

      1. JMH

        Aragchi said everything in specifically non-specific language. That’s diplomacy-speak at its finest. I was impressed when I first read it and become more so with each rereading. Iran is in the driver’s seat, it holds the cards, the oil flows on its terms… for now, perhaps for the foreseeable future. It would take time and a great deal of money to build pipe lines to route oil to new terminals outside the straits. All parties can cast a balance sheet. The tolls become part of the price. Let the world pay. Can the big shots live with the humiliation? Or put it this way,m live to fight another day. Nothing is forever. Grind your teeth in rage. refill the war chest. Have quiet very secret chats. Wait. Something may restore the status quo ante. If you do business in the bazaar, you must be flexible. Accept a loos now for the profit to come. revenge is a dish best eaten cold.

  23. N

    Israel has just done their biggest airstrike of Beirut since the war started. We will have to see how iran responds. I cant see how iran can ignore that.

    Also I cant see any ships going INTO the Persian gulf given they could just end up trapped.

    1. The Rev Kev

      What if Iran launches missiles into Lebanon and not Israel? Won’t be their fault if they hit Israeli positions and troops concentrations there.

      1. hk

        Or, Golan Hts, Mt Hermon, or whatever parts of Syria Israel occupied lately that’s being used to support the invasion of Lebanon?

        Maybe even exhortations for the Syrians to liberate their lands while they are doing it? (maybe that should wait until the ceasefire is officially cancelled)

    2. Darthbobber

      Iran is already making noises about “a ceasefire everywhere or no ceasefire anywhere”. And mentioned a “deterrence operation” if the Lebanon strikes don’t stop soon.

    1. Samuel Conner

      This presumably is a hint of what DJT meant with the language of the Iranian proposals providing a “framework” for negotiations [which, evidently in US thinking/hoping, would lead to Iranian retreat from every point with which US does not agree].

      Perhaps the best outcome will be a frozen conflict.

      If this is merely a pause before resumption of hostilities, I don’t see how US and Israel can replenish depleted weapons stocks faster than Iran, with its outside help, can do.

      1. Samuel Conner

        Adding, it looks like the first paragraph was composed by something that doesn’t know how to interpret DJT communications — it says that US will help to “dig up B2 bombers”.

        Presumably composed by AI?

      2. David

        One possible reason for that f15 being in a place to be shot down is having to rely on shorter range munitions.

        The other two being a reconnaissance flight or perhaps an attempt to encourage Iran to activate air defences for wild weasel aircraft to locate and attack.

        The B2 bombers part was in brackets. I think he is referring to the bombs B2s dropped on Iranian nuclear facilities last year.

    2. Alan Sutton

      Oh dear.

      I thought Israel would refuse first.

      But if Trump is already doing it we should forget about it and go to the next episode.

      Shit. How will anyone take anything seriously after that?

      Destroy a civilisation/discuss a deal with them/ think about it/kill them anyway….

      Crikey.

    3. ISL

      the original trumpist Truth Social post:

      “The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

      is grammatically not AI (my AI grammar checked it trying to edit it!), but missing the all CAPS trump loves, and is somewhat incoherent. Also note the return to the 15 point surrender demand.

      1. The Rev Kev

        15 points? Iran only had 10 points in their offer. Is Trump talking about his 15-point peace plan that was rejected by Iran last month? Is he trying to jam the points of that failed plan into these negotiations?

        1. hereweare

          Naturally. No way does he want to publicly state that for now it’s Iran’s plan that’s been sort of temporarily half-agreed to.

        2. n

          It seems doubtful that Trump was planning on going along with any agreement, even for a second after the deal was announced.

          This entire theatre was just an opportunity for Trump to TACO out of his “end their civilization” threat and announce another of his “victories”.

          Most likely no ships go through the straits other than what Iran was allowing anyways and in a few days everyone forgets there ever was a “ceasefire” and the news cycle moves onto the next big story in the war.

    4. North Star

      I think these public statements by both parties indicate that negotiations have already started before the main show starts on Friday in Pakistan.

      There must be give and take by both parties for any negotiations to be successful, obviously. For example, I can see the Iranians agreeing to a give on uranium, a big give for sure. Why? Well if they can develop a missile like the Russian Oreshnik that delivers a nuke-like impact without the spread of radiation, why would they need a nuclear bomb? As this conflict has shown, Iran must keep their ballistic missile capabilities, but a nuke I am not so sure.

  25. The Rev Kev

    I really do think that the cause of Trump calling for that ceasefire was the failed raid on the weekend. The US inserted forces into Iran to retrieve nuclear materials using a rescue mission as a cover. But then they got mauled by the Iranians and I do not use that word lightly. There were about 150 aircraft involved in this raid and the losses were unacceptable leading to the US having to pull out. A US military spokesman was saying how every man and his dog were shooting at the Americans which they did not expect. It was only after this debacle that all this talk of the US seizing islands and oil fields finally died. The Pentagon finally got it and I bet that they told Trump so. And for all we now maybe Susan Wiles give him a wake up call. That if he stopped the war he would only have to deal with a recession going into the Midterms but if he kept it up it would end in a full blown world depression with everybody blaming Trump and the Republicans being annihilated at the polls. Maybe.

    1. albrt

      This is just a thought experiment, not something I believe in (yet) and certainly not a prediction.

      Premise: Donald Trump learned something from his failed attempt to order the Deep State / MIC / uniparty to withdraw from Afghanistan during his first term.

      This time around he took a different approach. Every time Israel or the Generals made an aggressive suggestion, Trump demanded something even more aggressive. He eventually hounded them into joining Israel’s attack on Iran.

      The very predictable result is that U.S. force projection is substantially depleted. Carrier groups have been proven ineffective. The limits to Delta Force mini-invasions have been demonstrated. And we are basically out of ammo with no replacements for years.

      This is not over yet, but starting from where we are now it seems possible the Iran misadventure could end with Israel being hung out to dry and and the U.S. abandoning all its bases in the Middle East.

      ‘Tis a consummation devoutly to be wish’d. I am not sure it would be possible to achieve that result any other way, and certainly not so quickly. If that happens I will be forced to reassess my views about what (if anything) Trump was trying to accomplish.

      1. hk

        You are not the only one to have thought along this line. To pataphrase Mad Maddie Halfbright, as long as we have this wonderful military, some do gooder will use them for their world reshaping schemes. We have to disarm voluntarily to stop it. Much the same with Israel: we need a “good readon”to dump them; we now have the best reason since USS Liberty, or possibly, even a better one.

        But, all these sound too X-dim chess to me. I’m not gonna expect them to be real unless they happen and I have a couple of years to check on the details.

      2. John Wright

        Maybe Trump will score that Nobel Peace Medal by “stable genius ” misdirection.

        There might be some reassessment of USA military value to the USA population.

        As I recall the fully loaded cost of Iraq-Afghanistan is around 8 trillion dollars. This is about 100k for an American family of four.

        Throw in this military operation, with the possibility of USA reparations and the stressed USA citizens will be even more skeptical of the military expense.

        And praise to Pete Hegseth as he replaced the fig leaf of “defense department” with “war department” indicating that it was not for defense after all.

        Rant off.

        1. albrt

          By misdirection seek directions out, as it were.

          I’m not yet convinced that Trump was trying to eliminate the United States’ force projection capabilities, but I doubt he could have done a better job if he actually was trying.

    2. ilsm

      It seems to me that U.S. reengineered everything learned from 8 years rescuing aircrew in Vietnam. Granted the A-10 is no replacement for the A-1E for strafing.

      The huge losses in the over large rescue effort suggest poor planning, and unsuitable weapons. The rehearsal for grabbing enriched uranium splendidly failed.

      Add that to poor bombing results made it uneconomical to squander the last JASSM-ER stocks.

      US needs years to make sense of the fail, much less fix the system.

    3. hereweare

      “A US military spokesman was saying how every man and his dog were shooting at the Americans which they did not expect.”

      How on earth did Iran guess the US might try to grab the uranium?

      1. Retired Carpenter

        re” A US military spokesman was saying how every man and his dog were shooting at the Americans which they did not expect.”

        What did they expect, flowers? I cannot make sense of anything these days. Too old, I guess.

      2. tbob

        Vietnam Vet, approaching the start of his 82nd lap around the sun, here. In my day we had a pretty dark joke describing the perfect solution for ending our “conflict”:

        1 – Round up all the “good” Vietnamese population and put them on ships anchored offshore.
        2 – Kill all souls remaining onshore.
        3 – Then, sink all the ships.

        I wonder how many nations, former “allies” included, would give thought to applying that solution to the good ol’ US of A?

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        Aha, thanks. HT missed the trigger. I think they depend more than a bit on the IRCG statements. So Iran is now in “shoot first, ‘splain later if ever” mode.

    2. hoki_haya

      another stated Iranian objective that is not subject to change. the US has to accept this, or continue in its folly. they’re aware of that, but will likely decide to cry foul at their whim. such a cry won’t change Iranian objectives. now would be an ideal time for the US to take steps to decouple from Israel, but no one expects that.

      again i thank you for the discernment and intelligence you bring to your reportage. it engenders further insight from the laudable commentariat, as ever. it’s appreciated by many outside of the commentariat as well. thank you; genuine peace to all.

      1. JohnH

        Israeli violation of “ceasefire” in Lebanon may result in Iran’s exit.
        https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/08/3560721/israeli-violation-of-ceasefire-to-result-in-iran-s-exit-from-deal-source

        Iran downs Israeli drone in south of Iran https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/08/3560701/irgc-downs-israeli-drone-south-of-iran-vows-harsh-response-to-any-ceasefire-violation

        Iran releases impressive list of economic and military targets struck during 100th wave. Many American economic and military interests. Might this have helped Trump to dial it back?
        https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/08/3560583/irgc-lists-targets-struck-in-100th-wave-of-retaliatory-attacks

    4. JohnH

      Tasnim reports: (website responding poorly, so I couldn’t provide all links)
      Israeli drone downed over southern Iran

      Iran announces it may exist “ceasefire” if Israel continues bombing the daylights out of Lebanon

      Iran announced impressive list of targets struck, including American economic and military ones. Maybe helped Trump decision to dial it back?
      https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/08/3560583/irgc-lists-targets-struck-in-100th-wave-of-retaliatory-attacks

      Israeli definition of cease fire–“you cease, we fire”

  28. hoki_haya

    hey, look, we’re still here, the birds and the sky and the budding leaves here in northern armenia all know it, and the people do too – the balance of power has shifted, and iran is in position to have most if not all of its conditions met. no matter how US propaganda tries to spin it, this is the most heinous and glorious defeat i’ve seen handed to the US in my lifetime. that impenetrable hubris finally takes a direct and definitive shot. will be concerned to see the oncoming decay trickle downhill stateside, but man the country was so far gone anyway last time i visited. those few who kept their brains and spirits free back there will remain free; everyone else is in for quite a shock; something i’m certain most cannot handle.

    of course there’s still zionist israel to deal with, and all are well aware that the US is never to be trusted, on paper or in word. if they want to go to the mattresses again, iran remains prepared and the situation can resume where it left off. there’s also the largely fascist EU that refuses to allow its people and its countries accurate and equal representation. ah well, one thing at a time. there’s a touch more hope in the air up here today.

    https://youtu.be/cT1CoQ7yCCY
    [c’est allieurs – ‘it’s somewhere else’ – dedicated to the uranium special ops was seeking]

    1. Ignacio

      Beautiful! I hadn’t heard Brahem’s music before which reminds me how ignorant one inevitably is about very fine pieces of art. Thank you.

      1. hoki_haya

        completely my pleasure. i’ve long appreciated your assessments of El Pais. gracias a ti, ignacio.

  29. Carolinian

    It sounds like the madness will never end until the elites join we commonsense normals in the view that Israel is at the heart of the problem and that peace will never come until this tiny country of a few million accept that they are not destined to rule the planet or even their region. And for those Israel defenders, of course Israel acts the way it does because the golden billion elites approve of the notion that the very few should rule over the very many. It’s their notion too.

    But the many are not going to put up with it and the elites/Israel can only cling to their position by threatening suicidal wars like the current one that will destroy them as well. We are living in a world ruled by spoiled brats who need to be sent into the corner with a dunce cap.

    Perhaps the turning point was the defeat of the Soviet Union thirty years ago which allowed the capitalists/neoliberals to believe they could reassert their dominance over a socialist alternative that in the previous decades had tried to rein them in. But the crackup of that fantasy is at hand. Somebody tell them.

    1. hoki_haya

      well said. yes, more and more people in former soviet nations are realizing, ‘whoa, what we had was not that bad compared to where we are now…it makes sense to mourn its loss.’

      it was time for CCP to perish; that’s ok. i worry about what i see creep in of western education systems, which are so damn denigrated, designed to dumb people down, in comparison to the soviet education system which excelled in every field and the oldest people here still offer its fruits to their students.

      we could examine the birthdates of stars, and postulate universal origins, examine literature and history with a critical eye before even reaching university. now it’s just a slipshod ride around our (beautiful, honorable) moon and back, and an attempt to inhabit the ee cummings line: ‘listen, there’s a helluva good universe next door; let’s go’

    2. JohnH

      Western elites turned a blind eye to Israeli massacres and ethnic cleansing long before the demise of the Soviet Union. The Nakba occurred in 1948. Since then massacres and “mowing the grass” have taken place unabated with mind numbing regularity.

      Ironically, Iran was the first nation to recognize the Jewish state. But that was back in the days when a shah ruled the country.

      1. Carolinian

        I don’t think our Iraelification back then is nearly what it is now. Don’t forget Eisenhower defied the Israelis as did JFK. They got their jet fighters from France.

        There was an article suggesting that the demise of the USSR caused the Israelis to turn up the Hasbara to continue to justfy America’s support left over from the Cold War. Plus Israel was still regarded by many as social democratic despite Likud control. The tolerance toward genocide shown by Biden and now Trump is new. Few at the time knew about the Nakba.

        Now thw whole world is facing recession thanks to the arbitrary desires of the 7 million. Time for the world to call a halt.

  30. Yalt

    Donald J. Trump

    @realDonaldTrump

    ·
    1h
    A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions! President DJT

    Heavy is the head that wears the crown of mashed potatoes.

  31. Fun stuff

    the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations…

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      No Making Shit Up. Iran has only “agreed” to what it said it has agreed to, which = US capitulation.

      And as I said just above, per The Hill, the US has reneged and Trump has just said no enrichment:

  32. Bruno Paim

    Iran may be able to buy Trump off by depositing some of the Hormuz toll profits in a U.S.-controlled account in Qatar like Venezuela has done. There is nothing Trump is as beholden to as money and a giant slush fund congress can’t touch would be quite useful in his personal quest to engineer a world centered on Mar-a-Lago through his Board and Peace and other shenanigans.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Iran is not making concessions. They hold all the cards.

      They even called him ignorant in their official statement. They have no interest in placating him, much the less bribing him.

      1. Will

        The past few weeks I’ve been hearing about the sophistication of Persian culture including its diplomacy which recognized the need to allow their opponents to save face. Was that all cheerleading by people offended by Trump? Or have the Iranians decided it’s necessary to get down in the mud when dealing with someone like Trump? Or are they in their own way trying to keep the kinetic war going instead of having it settle into an unstable ceasefire? I’m hoping language like that is mostly for domestic consumption.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          It was Alastair Crooke who said recently that while that was normal Iranian behavior, they had totally had it with the US (the assassination of the Supreme leader and then killing the 168 girls with no apology has put pretty much the entire nation in a rage) that they are not going to help Trump save face.

          1. Socal Rhino

            They need the US to feel defeated. Then they will think twice before another attack. Capitulation means thinking this is the wrong country to mess with.

            1. hk

              This is an interesting thing: the presumption is that Trump needs an off ramp that he can claim as some kind of victory, but Iran, especially given all that has happened, is interested in making a lesson of this episode–US generally and Trump specifically need to be painfully aware that they have been humiliatingly defeated. How can both conditions be accomplished simultaneously? That’s gotta be hard!

        2. hemeantwell

          Re face-saving, in a recent video Alastair Crooke specifically noted that the egregious behavior of the US and Israel has moved Iran to put that bit of diplomatic behavior on extended hold.

  33. EnigmaWrappedInBacon

    Given that Israel isn’t likely to abide by any ceasefire, I don’t think American ground forces in Iran are off the table. I would be surprised if that is one option Trump and Hegseth are considering. Use two weeks to get more soldiers and hardware in place. This might lead to catastrophic results, but that doesnt mean it won’t happen.

  34. WJ

    Various items regarding temporary conditional cease-fire.

    1. Israel is not respecting ceasefire wrt Lebanon.
    a. Will Iran respond? and how?
    b. Did reformist elements in Iran trade ongoing recognized control of Hormuz for southern Lebanon? (Some doomer X accounts are claiming this.)
    c. Is US coordinating with Israel regarding the violation of the ceasefire, so as to enable the US to prep for another attack while lowering domestic pressure? This is Brian Berletic’s view.

    2. UAE conducting air operations against Iran.
    a. Is US using “official” ceasefire as a way of offloading prosecution of war to the Gulf states?
    b. It is hard to figure out what is the UAE motivation here, as Iran can destroy it relatively easily.

    3. Uranium ambiguity and Strait of Hormuz details:
    a. Will Iran trade enrichment rights for internationally recognized toll control over Hormuz? (They have de facto control, but they may want de jure control, and they may be willing to trade things to get this.

    1. The Rev Kev

      For the Iranians there would be no point in going for de jure control rather than de facto control of the Strait. Even if Trump agreed to it, he would simply renege on that recognition whenever he wanted down the track. And if he did not do that, then the next US President would.

      1. WJ

        This is a good point. Upon reflection I agree with it. I have been trying to think out loud about why certain things are happening and why now. It is very hard at the moment to isolate the signal from the noise.

        Mercouris stated that he believes Iran was pushed into agreeing to the conditional ceasefire by China and Russia, who agreed to veto the US-sponsored UNSC resolution but wanted something from Iran in return. This seems plausible.

        1. Yalt

          I’m struggling to understand what Iran has given up. In what way is their situation worse than it was 24 hours ago?

          1. WJ

            I am not sure that the situation of Iran is *worse* per se. But I am not sure whether the situation of Iran is *better* either.

            The US had been pushing for a ceasefire for some time, and Iran had refused to consider it. Ostensibly the US and Israel had desired a ceasefire because they realized the would soon run out of offensive and defensive capabilities and this would leave Israel especially vulnerable to severe damage.

            Now Iran has agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire (although perhaps it will not last longer than a day or so….) which in principle gives both the US and Israel a respite they otherwise would not have had.

            The US will ultimately not agree to Iran’s 10 points, even if it accepts them (or says it accepts them) as a basis for future negotiations. And the US has not yet felt NEAR the amount of pain required to compel them to agree with these points. So the war is destined to continue in some form.

            Is Iran worse off now than 24 hours ago? No, probably not. Is it better off? Not obvious that it is either. (Short-term, Iran itself gains a respite from having to absorb more bombings–that is probably chief benefit absent the full resolution of the contested 10 points, which we are far from realizing.)

            1. albrt

              Got to watch the wording of the Iranian statements carefully.

              Mr. Moose: Captain, Bunny Rabbit told me he doesn’t like carrots any more!

              Captain Kangaroo: Bunny Rabbit doesn’t like carrots any more?

              Mr. Moose: No, he doesn’t.

              Captain Kangaroo: That means I can take this bunch of carrots I’ve been carrying around with me and leave them right out in the open.

              [Bunny Rabbit slide whistle sound]

              Captain Kangaroo: Mr. Moose! I thought you said Bunny Rabbit doesn’t like carrots any more!

              Mr. Moose: He doesn’t. But he doesn’t like them any less, either.

            2. Yves Smith Post author

              No Iran did not agree to a ceasefire. It agreed to stop shooting if the belligerents stopped shooting at them and Hezbollah. That may sound like a distinction with a difference but it isn’t.

              First, it implies no tolerance of violations while most ceasefires accept some.

              Second, Iran KNEW DAMNED WELL that Israel would not stop attacking Southern Lebanon. So they merely indulged what they knew was a charade to create the appearance that the US had agreed to or at least was seriously entertaining their deemed to be maximalist position.

              1. vidimi

                yes, this. they indulged their pakistani neighbours so that the international blame can be refocused on Israel.
                But I would still like to know what Iran’s kinetic response over the last 24 hours has been, and hope they have been busy.

        2. hk

          If so, Iran has no more incentive to respect the deal than the Israelis do. This thing breaks down in 3 days, more or less, I expect. Just how much leverage do China and Russia have and how willing are they to pressure Iran if things go sideways–when it is already becoming apparent that the parties agreed to a Rashomon of a framework?

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      I hate to scold you but our Policies state that you are to read the post in full before commenting. You did not.

      The statement from the Supreme National Security Council included: “and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.”

      Do not pollute the comments section by repeating bullshit from know-nothings on Twitter.

      The reformists in Iran have NO power. Any claim that they do is also nonsense. The US/Israel attack during negotiations ended what little influence they had. Pezeshkian lost what little cred he had.

      The country has united behind the government and the IRCG has more control than before.

  35. Fritz

    Regarding plastic, if there’s an upside to a major disruption in the industry, perhaps it’s that the world finds itself using considerably less single-use plastic in our daily lives.

  36. AG

    re: EU crisis

    DIE WELT daily

    need to translate by C&P text

    The End of the Cheap World – Now the EU is Paying for its Carelessness

    Cheap energy from Russia, military security from America, profitable trade with China – that was Europe’s business model. The dangers of a new world order were ignored. Now the continent is paying the price.

    By Stefan Beutelsbacher, EU Correspondent in Brussels
    https://archive.is/xltQy

  37. Alan Sutton

    So no real ceasefire then?

    If they are not doing the 2 week ceasefire and chat then the announcement was just Trump pretending?

    Why are Iran onboard then?

    Not easy to make sense of this is it?

    1. RookieEMT

      It can fall apart today with Lebanon’s bombing. We can also see the bizarre situation of Israel getting bombed and the US simply does nothing for a few days. A nice little fever dream moment.

    2. ISL

      Perhaps it is to let the civilians exit the theater? I read that Kuwait’s desalination is mostly destroyed, so the civilians need to leave ASAP, other countries’ desalination likely are (or will be) degraded. The concept of preserving the life of non-combatants is part of Iran’s military doctrine (the Western doctrine continues to emphasize targeting non-combatants, speaking volumes as to who the good guys are in this story.

    3. Yves Smith Post author

      HUH???

      Iran’s position was that the US capitulate to get the ceasefire…which depends on good behavior

      Agreeing even on a fake-y basis advances Iran’s position.

      Lindsey Graham’s hair has been on fire.

  38. Expat2uruguay

    The reports yesterday about the fragility of the supply of lubricants was extremely concerning. I hope in all of this excitement capable people don’t lose sight of that vulnerability..

    Just as China has found a way to make plastics out of coal, I hope that something can be done to assure continued supplies of those important lubricants.

    1. vidimi

      Lubricants are absolutely not my area of expertise, but where I have encountered them, they don’t need to be reapplied frequently. Also, they seem to store pretty well so I would imagine most economies have several years worth of inventory.

    2. Pearl Rangefinder

      The lubricant angle is because the Shell Pearl GTL facility in Ras Laffan, Qatar , was taken offline by Iranian retaliatory strikes the other day. Pearl GTL is a mega big $$$ refinery that converts natural gas into various other liquid petroleum products (GTL=”Gas To Liquids”), chief among them a very pure API Group III/ Group III+ synthetic base oils which are used widely in lubricant formulations. Wiki base oils

      Lubricants like motor oils and greases are made up of blends of group I – group V “base oils” mixed with additives that create your final products that you buy, such as a 5W-30 motor oil or whatever. The Pearl GTL facility is the worlds largest producer of extremely high purity API group III+ base oils. The production from that plant is mostly used by Shell itself in its lubricant business, but it has been selling these GTL derived base stocks to other lubricant blenders in recent years, and is one of the big reasons synthetic and synthetic-blend motor oils (and other lubricants like greases) have been able to be made so cheaply. Lubes’N’Greases Magazine talked about Shell’s lubricant strategy and the Pearl GTL facility a few years back and how it was affecting the lubricants market: (Feb 2019) GTL: A Great Technology but is its Great Future Behind It?

      Shell is in a unique position as the only source of GTL base stocks, although, as we speculated in 2014, Shell had a range of strategic options to deploy them. It has branded the technology Pure Plus synthetic, with a nod to its origins in natural gas but emphasizing engine cleanliness and protection. There is nothing new in these claims, as many of its competitors are making similar, justifiable claims based on their own proprietary technologies with various Group III+ and additive systems.

      Much more significant, however, has been Shells ability to exploit the cost advantage of GTL versus polyalphaolefins, a premium base stock for top-performance engine oils. Although different substances, lubes made with Pearl GTL base stocks are able to meet the same critical standards as those made using PAO especially for some key grades.

      Our investigation concludes that the cost advantage in European markets could amount to more than $0.50 per liter against lubes using PAO – more than enough to win price-sensitive business for some viscosity grades like SAE 5W-30. Shell has used that advantage to increase its penetration in some key markets, like original equipment manufacturer first-fill oils. It has also moved into aftermarket relationships, supplying genuine oils (OEM branded products) where its technology is evident to customers.

      Nothing that the Pearl GTL plant makes is absolutely critical in terms of inputs (other than to Shell’s own lubricants business, they are probably bigtime screwed) that other companies couldn’t make or substitute, so from that perspective it isn’t a catastrophic loss, but the oil crisis hitting Asia will mean that a lot of Asian base oil production will also be taking hits. Apparently six of the worlds ten largest base oil refineries are located in Asia. The top 10 are a quarter of the worlds production capacity.

      1. Steve H.

        Thank you, Pearl Rangefinder, for clarifying Pearl GTL. The Naked Capitalism commentariat is the best commentariat.

  39. Ann

    Pete Hegseth ‘Not Speaking Truth To The President,’ Source Warns Washington Post

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/latest-updates_n_69d3a02fe4b05537a7f1b1ba/liveblog_69d55180e4b06b69686d31ae

    Israel’s opposition slams Netanyahu’s ‘political disaster’, ‘strategic failure’ in Iran

    https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/565558.aspx

    Sánchez to Trump: Spain won’t ‘applaud those who set the world on fire just because they then show up with a bucket’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/spain-pm-sanchez-trump-iran-war-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis.html

    Gulf countries scramble to intercept missiles hours into U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/iran-missile-attacks-after-us-ceasefire-gulf-air-defenses.html

    Sen. Markey: ‘The impeachment process must begin’ for Trump

    https://www.ms.now/the-last-word/watch/sen-markey-the-impeachment-process-must-begin-for-trump-2495509571789

    1. hk

      Curious, if the impeachment process begins, if it will be for the crazy warmongering or the “peacemaking.”

  40. Jason Boxman

    Wowzers, the Market loves it. We have a huge gap up on SPY today. That the market is successfully bid in the middle of a war that’s constraining the energy and oil derived products that capitalism depends on is the true accomplishment. But you can’t paper over physical reality forever.

  41. Beachwalker

    Why don’t Iran’s negotiating conditions include commitments to a nuclear-bomb-free Middle East, including language that binds Israeli compliance and Israeli acceptance of inspections? Not gonna happen? OK, but one cannot forever ignore the elephants in the room.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Because they didn’t.

      Because none of the other countries are party to this agreement. You can’t impose conditions on third parties any more than you can sell your neighbor’s house without his permission. It is a matter of national sovereignity.

      1. Beachwalker

        You seem to be working with a rather broad definition of “third parties.” Israel was and is an active participant (to put in the mildest possible terms) of this war. Israel has been going on forever about how the Iran nuclear program is an existential threat. Israel killed and assassinated thousands of Iranians in the name of preventing them from having a bomb. And… well one could write a very long book about this sordid Israeli behavior. If my neighbor were brandishing deadly weapons and threatening me, my family, my neighborhood, and indeed the whole world with using them, I wouldn’t be all that concerned about his property rights.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          No you seem not to understand negotiations or treaties.

          Israel was not a party to these talks. It made no commitments to Iran.

          We can see from Ukraine how well (not) US efforts to bring Ukraine to heel in its negotiations with Russia have gone.

          The US can pressure Israel but it cannot make a sovereign nation agree. That agreement has to be secured independently.

  42. Ann

    It Will Take Months to Get Oil and Gas Flowing out of the Persian Gulf

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/energy-environment/iran-war-oil-gas-prices-energy.html

    Trump says he will work with Iran for ‘very productive regime change, there will be no enrichment’

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892370

    Hezbollah pauses attacks, sources say, Israel says operations in Lebanon continue

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-pauses-attacks-under-us-iran-ceasefire-sources-close-group-say-2026-04-08/

    Israeli Air Force just launched its largest wave of airstrikes in Lebanon targeting 100 sites within 10 minutes

    https://www.mtv.com.lb/en/news/Local/1678992/israel-claims-largest-strike-across-lebanon

    Iranian Oil Refining Company confirms attack on Lavan refinery

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iranian-oil-refining-company-confirms-attack-lavan-refinery-shana-reports-2026-04-08/

    1. Louis Fyne

      Suez Crisis didn’t have an molecule crisis as a first/second order consequence.

      US will catch a cold; developing world and EU debilitating pneumonia.

  45. LawnDart

    A vew from Israel:

    Trump buys time with Iran ceasefire while Israel pays the price

    …if Israel is indeed constrained in Lebanon beyond the two-week period, it will face operational difficulties. Even a temporary pause now inflicts significant harm on Israel’s security, at a time when the IDF faces a severe shortage of combat personnel and reservists who have already served hundreds of days cumulatively.

    A “stab in the back” moment?

    If US wants a 14-day ceasefire, it’s gonna need to order a lot of muzzles from China… or maybe bondage-balls, you know, the ones like a gag? Perhaps these come in flavors too…

    1. pjay

      Yes, this would seem to be the first immediate test. Israel has been bombing the s**t out of Lebanon ever since the “cease fire” (which, as always, means Hezbollah ceased while Israel kept firing). In addition to the links provided by Ann and others above, here is reporting by Al Jazeera:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03M1eoUdU88

      We should get some clarification pretty quickly on Iran’s commitment to the Lebanon issue – and on whether the US has any real interest in reining in Israel.

      1. Wukchumni

        All we need now is the Teetotalitarian Dictator getting off a plane holding a piece of paper aloft, assuring us that there will be peace in our time.

      2. Yves Smith Post author

        I am a little puzzled by your implicit assumption that Iran is not serious.

        It did not want to negotiate. At best, I think they decided they had to indulge Pakistan.

        All it did was demand capitulation.

        Chas Freeman said a while back that Iran had determined the war would be settled on the battlefield.

        There has been no change in Iran’s position

        1. pjay

          To clarify, this is not my assumption at all. But Iran has been accused by others, unfairly in my view, that they had left Hezbollah in the lurch after the fall of Syria and the assassinations of Hezbollah leadership. Following this line, there were suggestions that maybe they would not insist on the Lebanon point. There were even rumors that it was left out of some versions of the Iranian proposal (no real evidence of this that I know of).

          It sounds like this notion will be refuted soon.

    3. Yves Smith Post author

      Pretty please I want Iran to cancel the stooopid talks on Friday, or at least insist as they had before no Witkoff and Kushner.

    5. hk

      Key moment. US has to throw Israel under the bus or Iran Lebanon. Given where things are, the former is almost certainly the real sticking point. Over next 3 days, say, either things break down or US forces Israel out of Lebanon and, possibly, Southern Syria. (I suspect, alas, Gaza is still off the table)

  47. Wukchumni

    I’ll reiterate that the only way the evangs high up in the MIC get their glory is nuking Iran, which means Israel also gets nuked, paving the way for Jesus to show up and spirit them upstairs to god’s waiting room.

    …there won’t be another opportunity

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        Only did a fast skim but I see Haaretz is still badly propagandized.. Discusses the US and Israel having absolute air superiority.

  49. Ann

    Trump Braces for Humiliating Revelations as Major Split on Iran Leaks

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/president-donald-trump-braces-for-humiliating-revelations-as-major-split-on-iran-leaks/

    Trump: Iran deal ‘total and complete victory’ for US

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5821238-donald-trump-iran-nuclear-deal-victory/

    Trump Ex-Allies Suddenly Join Call for His Removal: “He’s Gone Insane”

    https://newrepublic.com/article/208757/finally-trump-ex-allies-call-25th-amendment-he-gone-insane

    Trump Just TACO’d Away American Credibility As He Backs Down On Iran Threats: “Trump used to rail against presidents backing down and not showing ‘backbone.’ Now, he has pulled another ‘TACO’”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-uturn-taco-iran-war-strikes-b2953321.html

    Trump’s Midnight Peace Brag Hit by Humiliating Reality Check

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-midnight-peace-brag-hit-by-humiliating-reality-check/

    It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/its-not-a-taco-its-a-surrender-trump-iran-ceasefire-plan-hormuz

    Trump is burning every bridge America had left

    https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2026-04-07/trump-allies-burning-bridges

    Survey: Majority want Congress to impeach Trump now

    https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/survey-majority-want-congress-to-impeach-trump-now/

    2. pjay

      Berletic continually uses the Brookings study ‘Which Path to Persia’ to make his argument that Israel is just another proxy for the US empire. This is a work by a bunch of Zionist neocons (Pollock, Indyk, O’Hanlon, etc.) who are very much part of the Israel lobby embedded in our National Security establishment. It was put out by the *Sabin Center*, for christsake, which is just another pro-Israel “research center.” They, and Brookings, are linked more with the Democrat Blue team, which may also mean they are less supportive of Likud and Netanyahu (not sure about that), but they’re neocons nonetheless. It’s no different that citing various publications by the Project for a New American Century as proof that the US dog actually wags the Israeli tail.

      The story, as the best commentators recognize, is that there are a number of convergent but not identical interests that have driven us to this point. That includes our own war hawks and arms merchants and religious fanatics, but also the Israeli government and its lobbyists (and religious fanatics). It may be true that some of our supremacists see Israel as our “unsinkable carrier” to be used or even sacrificed to maintain US dominance. But this is *not* the view of the majority of neocons who have been shaping our policies for the last 30 years.

      1. JonnyJames

        Yes, of course. But which “neocons”? I don’t see much difference in the blue or red team when it comes to foreign policy? The term “neocon” has changed and is thrown around loosely, as are many political terms. Whatever their view, the facts speak for themselves.

        Also, it sure does look like Israel is taking a beating while we here in the imperial homeland have no missiles and drones raining down. As you say, there are a convergence of interests here and Israel is not the beneficiary. The main beneficiaries of this conflict look like US BigOil, the MICIMATT, and others. How does this benefit Israel here? I certainly don’t want to be in Tel Aviv etc., I would much rather hang out here in “splendid isolation” thousands of miles from danger.

        1. KD

          As you say, there are a convergence of interests here and Israel is not the beneficiary.

          If this war doesn’t benefit Israel, why are they not observing the ceasefire? Why did they lobby Trump to start it? Why was Trump relying on Mossad’s intelligence briefings that Iran would collapse in a couple days with an air war? Why is Israel saying its a disaster that the Americans are getting out?

          Israel wants to be the Hegemon in the ME. Iran, on the basis of its capabilities, threatens Israel’s bid for hegemony. Israel is more than happy to kill off its own people, and damage its own economy in it’s quest for power and hegemony. On the other hand, I see no benefits to America from supporting an apartheid state in the Middle East engaging in expansionist wars with an eye toward ethnic cleansing their neighbors and stealing their lands. Covering and supporting Israel’s probable genocide has been an absolute disaster for the standing of the US internationally, not to mention fighting this stupid war. If Iran had lost, it wouldn’t help America, it would help Israel.

          Now, Israel clearly miscalculated and now they have to deal with the consequences of losing, but its like arguing Nazi Germany didn’t benefit from attacking the USSR because it ultimately lead to their destruction. Sure, but that isn’t what Nazi Germany believed at the time they attacked, they thought they could collapse the USSR in 6 weeks and become unstoppable. It doesn’t matter what the outcome is, it matters what the expected outcome was at the time of the decision, and that outcome was securing Israel’s hegemony in the ME.

          1. JonnyJames

            On the other hand, since Israel was created as a proxy for the west by the British, any bid for hegemony in the region benefits the empire. Israel takes the brunt of the blame as well, which is convenient for US politicians. The plan to bomb Iran has been around for years. The US and UK have a long track record of meddling in Iran. This latest war did not come out of nowhere, we have loads of historical context that many forgot, or ignore.

            Just because you or I don’t see any benefit for the US as a whole, does not mean most of the US oligarchy are behind the wars and benefit from them. (Ukraine, Iran, Lebanon, Syria etc.) When anyone speaks of “national interest” the first question should be “whose interests?.
            And we should not forget the US has a long track record of crimes and atrocities in Korea, SE Asia etc. it’s not like this is something new.

            The latest war could be seen as part of the US reckless attempt to maintain world hegemony. The war in Ukraine is also part of this long-term strategy going back decades

            I still don’t see how Israel is profiting. The crooks and insiders in the US financial markets benefit (very likely including family and cronies of the pres), US BigOil benefits big time, the US MICIMATT benefits, just look at the huge spike in the so-called defense budget and war appropriations. We are talking serious money here and it has bipartisan support in Congress of course.

      2. hk

        I brought up John King Fairbanks fallacy before: he described the imperial China’s worldview and foreign policy as grounded on some sort of “Middle Kingdom Ideology,” based on writings by various imperial courtiers who never actually dealt with foreign nations, but were eager to kiss the emperor’s a**. When China historians began looking at the documents concerning the real foreign policy making of Imperial China, they foubd no sign of such ideology: the practical matters were dealt with in much the same fashion as anywhere else. I think most think tanks are modern day Chinese courtiers: they make up stuff to fancy the “emperor’s” delusion that he rules tje world–so he needs a set of “principles” to build his rule around. Since this is largely fictitious, how real foreign policy gets made has little resemblance to such theorizing, however.

  51. Ann

    Trump calls Iran’s 10-point plan a “workable basis.” Key points inc: US/Israeli non-aggression pledges, Iranian control over Strait, acceptance of uranium enrichment, lifting of sanctions, ending UN/IAEA resolutions, war damage compensation, US troop withdrawal from region & halting Lebanon actions

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html

    Hezbollah fires at North, fragment falls in open area, no injuries

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-892377

    Oman denies plans to impose transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz and adheres to international agreements

    https://www.voiceofemirates.com/en/news/2026/04/08/oman-denies-plans-to-impose-transit-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-adheres-to-international-agreements/

    Maritime intelligence analyst warns Houthis could use Tehran’s tollbooth formula to choke shipping

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/04/08/ceasefire-provides-opening-for-houthis-to-use-tehran-tollbooth-formula-to-choke-shipping/

      1. Darthbobber

        The article is from Voice of the Emirates, and while it characterized a supposed Omani statement in various ways, at no point does it offer a direct quote. Nor does it link to the statement

  52. Ex-PFC Chuck

    Today, Israel carried out airstrikes against the “China-Iran Railway”—marking the first direct attack on the core interests of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    This railway, which opened on June 3, 2025, was constructed with 40 billion RMB funding by China. It was designed to allow Iranian oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, traveling directly to China—thereby saving 20 days in transit time—and serves as a strategic corridor intended to “break through 13 years of U.S. sanctions.

    https://x.com/bxieus/status/2041711938258821484

    1. JonnyJames

      Very interesting, the US uses the “bad cop” to attack Chinese interests, while the US pushing “ceasefire”. I hope the ceasefire isn’t just a ruse, like so many times in the past.

      Iran’s geo-strategic location in West Asia, not to mention the Strait, is huge.

      This appears to be using Israel to further US interests, not Israel’s

    2. leaf

      Isn’t it fairly simple to restore a railway like they’ve been doing in Ukraine for about 4 years now? I don’t think they can keep up strike tempo with the US having used up most of the standoff munitions

    3. dandyandy

      But, this is on the other side of Iran. How did Israeli planes get there?

      From Azerbaijan?

    4. PlutoniumKun

      The sourcing of that story is questionable. Online strike maps indicate one strike at Mashad, which is a city near the Turkmenistan border where the line to China joins up with Iranian systems. If there was a strike, and Israel did hit 10 different railway targets yesterday, then it was probably at the junction there – several major (if scarcely used) railways meet at Mashad. At that distance, it would have to have been a relatively small warhead.

      The railway line is not particularly significant – it’s an old Soviet line that was built to connect up its outer Central Asian states, with a link into Iran. Some Chinese money went in to reopening and upgrading it, but it has no special significance, the terrain is too difficult for high capacity or high speed rail. It is a symbolic route, not one with any significant commercial value. It is certainly not a significant oil transport route.

  53. Wukchumni

    This war really exposed what a paper tiger the Golden Billion is, with our vaunted 20th century military showing that throwing exorbitant amounts of money at armaments isn’t all that.

    We are udderly Krupp’d here, but will potential foreign customers for our wares stay away in droves?

    A $4 million Patriot swatting a $20k Iranian drone is only cost effective to Raytheon stockholders and higher ups in the company, but the rest of the world must look at it as if say there were a couple of stores that both sold Hershey’s chocolate bars, the Iranian merchant wants a buck fifty for his-which is the going price in the states, while the MIC seller demands $300 for the same chocolate bar, and his only way of swaying buyers is to bomb the rival candy merchant.

    1. Ignacio

      Besides, this also exposes how when someone, some country, empire, whatever, wants to exert full domination of everyone else, any other country, it is inevitably poised to fail miserably. Trump was given a Ferrari which was already leaking oil with Biden as sleepy driver and has crashed it badly. Few and expensive spare parts available to mend it.

      Permanent full spectrum dominance all around the world? A myth that too many try to sell?.

      1. Wukchumni

        Thanks are in order that in preparation for Operation Epicurean Fury, I had stocked up on Dubai Chocolate bars-filled with kadayif and pistachio-tahini cream. I’m down to 1 bar left and not quite desperate yet, but getting there.

  54. Socal Rhino

    Would be something if a global energy crisis forced the US to change its relationship with ISR. But anything less is just kicking the can down the road, and maybe just a few feet.

  55. Anthony Martin

    How is it that the Administration which caused the effective (and seemingly deliberate) closure of the Straits of Hormuz has gained any credibility in whatever actions it taken into the future. How many times has Trump spun one thing and done another. Trump is a con artist and NEVER, EVERR trust anything a con says. Besides, is Bibi on board. Israel seems addicted to assasinations and the killing of Muslims, be they Arabs or Persians.
    Two weeks..one day at a time. The algorithim for insiders iseems to be: if Trump sells peace buy short and wait till he talks war to buy long on his insane roller coaster ride.

  56. XXYY

    For me, two very interesting questions arise at this point:

    (a) The US strategy of maintaining and using a myriad of military bases in the Persian Gulf area has been shown not only to be useless, but dangerous since it provides a pretense for targeting other countries in the region. Clearly, in the age of guided missiles, such bases cannot be protected or used, and much like large military vessels, will be destroyed immediately in the next war. Is the US going to see the writing on the wall and withdraw from these bases as Iran has been demanding? If so, it would obviously lower the geopolitical temperature in the Gulf.

    (b) Has Israel now finally achieved the worldwide reputation of being a crazed and toxic nation, one that imposes way more liabilities than benefits even on its allies and is run by madmen? Hard to imagine future US politicians taking action at Israel’s urging or even taking money from them. The population of Israel itself has also received a big taste of its own medicine and perhaps realized the vulnerability of the tiny country to modern weaponry. The country has always had an unlimited appetite for war, but perhaps that will change somewhat going forward.

    Have fun making your own list!

    1. leaf

      Wonder if this is changing all thought process of the countries with bases in the first and second island chains since you now know that USians will pre-emptively abandon all bases and leave the hosts to fend for themselves while starting a pre-emptive war. Also that they as allies are not as important as Israel with air defense systems being stripped for their needs.

      I think future US politicians will continue to follow the Zionist lobby. Look at Newsom as an example, he blames Netanyahu but still proclaims strong Zionist support. They will put all the blame on Netanyahu, Trump, Hegseth and then continue on as before. It’s just too deeply entrenched

    2. hereweare

      In answer to question b), the USA has finally achieved the worldwide reputation of being a crazed and toxic nation, one that imposes way more liabilities than benefits even on its allies and is run by a madman, if not by madmen and women.

      1. Louis Fyne

        >>>being a crazed and toxic nation (throw in gluttonously corrupt and greedy)

        it was always there—even during the “no drama” Obama years. Trump and his cliche just was vulgar and honest about it.

        1. hereweare

          I think Denmark sending soldiers to Greenland ready to blow up runways if the US tries invading, or Macron talking of the need for nations to stand together against the USA, are indications that the USA’s reputation among recent former allies has flipped. I, like you I suspect, have long viewed the USA as crazed and toxic.

  57. Aurelien

    It’s worth pointing out, before people become too excited or distressed, that there is no actual “agreement” between the US and Iran. There is no document, nor even a list of agreed points, just a series of statements by the two sides saying very different things. About all that seems to be “agreed” is that Iran will “open” the Straits, in some fashion or other for 14 days, and that the US will not attack Iran. What each side has done now is to set out its objectives for the negotiations (as is normal) assuming they ever happen. I read Trump’s statement about uranium as an attempt to appease political opinion in the US, by setting one “red line” condition now. Bear in mind that the Iranian 10 points makes no mention of the nuclear issue at all.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      They did in their statement about the ceasefire, and I think you can read the 10 points to include the uranium, as in their actual statement: “the removal of all primary and secondary sanctions.”

      The sanctions all related to the enrichment program. No sanctions = no bar to enrichment.

      1. Aurelien

        Yes, I think that was the implication. I read that as a concealed signal about their objectives, and Trump’s statement as a poorly-concealed attempt to set out his own. Even if this were a serious negotiation between genuinely interested parties, you would expect this kind of signalling at the beginning of the process. It probably also reflects exchanges in Islamabad, and I would expect, indeed, that most of what’s in the statement was already said to the Americans there.

        1. JohnH

          Question is, what would prompt Trump to renew attacks on Iran?

          Mid-term elections are still six months away. The economy will only get worse with renewed attacks.

          Munitions supply and logistics situation will not improve as a result of renewed attack.

          Zionist donors will feel betrayed, see Trump as untrustworthy and unlikely be in a forgiving mood, renewed attacks or not.

          Will Epstein blackmail be enough to persuade Trump, when it didn’t yesterday?

          My bet is on a frozen conflict with Iran in charge of Strait of Hormuz with Israel continuing to be as rabid as ever and getting pummeled in return. The big question is how much has Trump’s own case of rabies abated and how badly will it manifest itself as his presidency withers away.

        1. KD

          I wonder if the US walks away, will Iran spare the Gulf States and just hammer Israel? It would seem like a benefit to Iran if America remains on the sidelines while the war in Lebanon continues, even if it violates the ceasefire? Also, blowing up the Gulf States seems like their version of the nuclear option, which should be off the table if its only Israel, providing Israel isn’t stupid enough to nuke Iran. Or is this just naive or wishful thinking on my part? Plus, continued closure of the Straights due to Israeli aggression is only going to sour public opinion against Israel further, if that is possible.

        2. Sibiriak

          It’s difficult to envision Trump embracing a comprehensive agreement based on Iran’s ten-point plan.

          But it’s equally difficult to envision Trump jumping back into the fire (in the short term), because, as Scott Ritter put it, “he’s maxed out his escalation capabilities ” and faces domestic political catastrophe if he doesn’t pull out.

          On the other hand, Israel appears bent on undermining any cease fire, and it’s unclear what Trump will do about that.

          All things considered, I think we’re heading toward a Unilateral TACO, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

    2. Socal Rhino

      And as you have commented previously, an agreement written or otherwise does not have any real utility in itself in international relations.

      What matters here is reaching the point where one or both sides deems the cost too prohibitive to continue. I would say the US has about reached that point, having consumed most of its standoff and interceptor missile inventory and facing a global energy shock that will begin to affect the US in another week or two. The calculation is different for ISR. For now, the cost of crossing ISR outweighs the other, delayed costs. At least that’s how I see it today.

  58. urdsama

    Hormuz is now closed – due to Israel attacking Lebanon. Via JudgingFreedom / Larry Johnson.

    Not good.

  59. lampoon

    In Prof Pape’s Substack post this morning, he contends that the ceasefire is a strategic failure for the U.S. in its accepting “a halt under conditions it cannot fully dictate.” He discusses the politics of this strategic failure: “a conflict that escalated without delivering clear gains. … [T]he risk is not a single defining break, but a prolonged period of strategic doubt — one that weakens political standing, complicates coalition management, and shapes the environment heading into electoral cycles. History is clear on this point: when wars fail to produce results, they do not remain foreign policy problems. They become political ones.”
    https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/the-new-balance-of-power-after-the

  60. Ben Panga

    Lots of -fire, precious little cease-

    *Trump moving goalposts already on uranium and Lebanon.
    *Trump’s ludicrous 50% tariff threat on anyone [ie Russia and China] supplying Iran with weapons. Because tariffs on China worked so well last time /s
    *Israel launching massive strikes on Lebanon under the name “Operation Eternal Darkness”
    * Iranian island attacked
    *Empire Hermes 900 drone incursion into Iran and shootdown
    *Gulf states continue to get missiled and droned seemingly by Iran
    *Iran breaks Saudi’s East-West oil pipeline
    *Hormuz announced closed
    *Iran won’t go to Islamabad unless Lebanon ceasefire
    *Vance won’t go to Islamabad because “security concerns”
    *Mash potato King “just hangin’ out” and spewing nonsense.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Well I got my wish even faster than expected. No stoopid talks.

      Does “Vance won’t go to Islamabad because “security concerns”” = he is worried about Israel assassination?

      1. Ben Panga

        That was my first thought although I think it’s probably just a pretext excuse as it’s clear that the Iranians won’t be going anyway and this way it’s moderately less embarrassing.

        1. mrsyk

          That was quick. It’s like we went back to Saturday. The effort to memory hole Bloody Sunday II will be entertaining and fruitless, I imagine. No way team blue isn’t going to flood the campaign trail with voice-over reads of the notorious ts post and sinister, over-sized bunnies.

    2. Ignacio

      Well it is possible that this is a “real” ceasefire with all the missiles being now negotiation arguments rather than clueless weapons. Or at least Mr. Market seems to be buying such new concept at this moment.

  61. Ann

    10 petabyte (10000 terabyte) of data allegedly stolen from Chinese supercomputer, including classified defense documents

    The link below contains a lot of details, more than I should excerpt here. Go to the link for specifics. IMO, this is a very serious development. Along with Israel bombing the China-Iran railroad, we might see China take an increasingly more active position.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/08/china/china-supercomputer-hackers-hnk-intl

    How the Global Economy Will Look After the War and Why It Won’t Return to Normal

    Governments worldwide have depleted strategic reserves, expanded deficits, and committed to multi-year defense spending

    https://www.ebc.com/forex/how-the-global-economy-will-look-after-the-war-and-why-it-wont-return-to-normal

    US military says it’s ready to resume Iran fighting if diplomacy fails

    https://www.reuters.com/world/hegseth-decisive-us-military-victory-over-iran-2026-04-08/

    1. ISL

      Caution is needed for the CNN (part of the MSM – pro US – anti-China propaganda psyops) – it’s all allegations that cannot be confirmed. I am also skeptical that that amount of data can be extracted, as it would take a long time even at a gigabit-per-second rate (from where?), and it should have set off network alarms.

      “CNN cannot verify the origins of the alleged dataset and the claims made by FlamingChina, but spoke with multiple experts whose initial assessment of the leak indicated it was genuine”

      and yet none of the experts are willing to be named? ReallY! I smell a psyop.

      Not saying some data wasnt hacked, but 10,000 terrabytes…. I wonder which spy agency was the unnamed experts.

  62. Wukchumni

    Interesting how the 10 Points is breaking down even quicker than Wilson’s 14 Points, with no rhyme or point in the matter other than a stall for time on the former.

    Max (head room) Robespierre’s name doesn’t end in an ‘i’ like Kristi & Bondi, so he’s probably safe for now.

  64. Jeff W

    So what I’m not getting is this:

    Iran makes a 10-point counter-proposal to the US demands for a ceasefire on Monday. President Trump calls that “very significant step,” but not enough to bring the conflict to an end. (One US official calls it “maximalist.”) Trump threatens that a “whole civilization will die tonight,” holds fast to his 8 pm deadline, and then, at the eleventh hour, says the counter-proposal is a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    What changed between the time Iran put that counter-proposal on the table and Trump finally getting around to seeing it as a “workable basis on which to negotiate”? (It’s not like Iran swooped in at the last minute with its counter-proposal. Obviously, the world did not have to be set on edge by Trump’s “civilization-dying” pronouncement.)

    1. FoxHound

      It’s Donald Trump. We need to stop believing anything he says has any credibility. He’s a gaslighter, it’s what he does. Everything he does has to do with manipulate the stock market. That’s all he’s got.

      How many more times does the guy have to lie before people stop believing him?

    2. AG

      I might not concur with others here and may appear as delusional but nothing Donny says matters imho, at all.

      He could talk about kangaroos and in reality refer to the new Pentagon budget or a new ocean liner (I think that´s one he missed out so far.)

      The satire movie VICE about Dick Cheney has tons of this kind of nonsense where power and ruthlessness are illustrated by showing how meaningless statements are.

      For lack of video link, from the script of VICE:

      “(…)
      INT. OVAL OFFICE – WHITE HOUSE – SAME TIME
      Ford talks with Kissinger, Rumsfeld and Cheney.

      CHENEY
      If I may, I believe I may have a
      way to put an ore in the water, on
      Russia. What if-

      KISSINGER
      Mr. President-

      FORD
      Come on Henry let’s hear Dick out.

      NARRATOR (V.O.)
      One of Dick Cheney’s super powers,
      was the ability to make the most
      wild and extreme ideas sound
      measured and professional.

      DICK
      What if on a unilateral basis, we
      all put miniature wigs on our
      penises, and we walked out to the
      White House lawn, and we jerked
      each other off. So, like a puppet
      show, but much more enjoyable?

      Long pause. Rumsfeld smiles a sly grin.

      KISSINGER
      I do like a good puppet show.

      FORD
      I say we do it!
      (…)”

      The only reason Donny looks so much more like a sore loser unlike Cheney and Co. is that for the first time US did make the mistake to take on an adversary in the same weight class. Which however means to say: Cheney and Co. would have ran into the same brick wall sooner or later. Simply because they had run out of enemies that were way below the line. Donny eventually ran out of luck and grace of good timing.

      p.s. A mindset that follows the famous Austrio-German laywer Georg Jellinek´s dictum of the “”The Normative Power of the Factual” (“Normative Kraft des Faktischen”), renders words meaningless. It´s not how Jellinek intended it to work. But it´s a possible consequence in a material world.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georg_Jellinek

    3. Ernie

      I think it was a bluff. Trump, with his unhinged tweets and the help of the media, created an impression that if Iran didn’t concede by 8 pm the nukes were going to fly. Iran called his bluff. When it got down to only an hour or two left to go, with Iran holding firm, Trump had to either TACO or show his nuclear cards. Pakistan gave him an out with it’s last minute “cease fire” suggestion, and he took it.

      1. Jason Boxman

        The birds were in the air, said people on Twitter, based on the transponder tracking. Perhaps that was also part of a bluff. I think it was the military ensuring Trump had that option to proceed, if he gave the go-ahead, which due to Taco was probably not coming. But the assets needed to be in-place just in case.

        1. boshko

          But will we ever know if they were armed with nukes? i wished the B-52s weren’t, but how to confirm.

  65. Ann

    Iran-backed Iraqi militias launch drone attacks near diplomatic facility, Baghdad Airport

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-892381

    Italy summons Israeli ambassador after shots fired at UN in Lebanon

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/italy-summons-israeli-ambassador-after-shots-fired-at-un-in-lebanon

    Trump says he’s considering ‘joint venture’ with Iran for Strait of Hormuz tolls

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/5821343-trump-us-iran-ceasefire-deal-joint-venture-strait-of-hormuz/

    Trump Left JD Vance Out of Key Iran Meeting—but Invited Jared Kushner

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208741/donald-trump-jd-vance-jared-kushner-iran-war-meeting

    MAGA Fumes Over Trump Capitulation in Iran Ceasefire Deal

    http://newrepublic.com/post/208762/maga-reaction-trump-iran-ceasefire-deal

    Justice Department says Bondi won’t appear for Epstein deposition now that she’s no longer attorney general

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/politics/pam-bondi-epstein-deposition-justice-department

  67. alrhundi

    Lebanon death toll up to 254 people, and 1165 wounded as per Al Jazeera. Also reporting air defences activated in Iran… So much for a cease fire. Fuck these people man, I’m so tired of this. Hoping my friends family in Beirut are okay…

  69. Wukchumni

    One ceasefire looms larger
    And one ceasefire seems small
    And the ones that the Zionists give you
    Don’t do anything at all
    Don’t blame malice
    When Iran’s ten feet tall

    And if you go chasing rabidly
    And you know you’re going to fall
    Tell ’em a self-stroking Zionist
    Has given you the call
    Don’t blame malice
    When it was your choice of war, doll

    When the generals on the chessboard
    Were all summarily let go
    And you’ve just had some kind of realization
    And your mind is moving low
    Don’t blame malice
    It’s Zoroaster’s show

    When logic and proportion
    Have fallen sloppy dead
    And the White Knight is talking backwards
    And the Red Queen named Pam, well off with her head
    Remember what the dormouse said

    Heed the market and the Fed
    Heed the market and the Fed

    White Rabbitm by Jefferson Airplane

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnJM_jC7j_4&list=RDpnJM_jC7j_4

  70. JonnyJames

    Although many disagree with him on this point, I still have not seen a convincing rebuttal to prof. Hudson’s
    illustrative quip he has occasionally repeated over the years:

    “The US is willing to fight until the last Israeli”

    “The US is willing to fight until the last Ukrainian” (and perhaps the last European)

    Many agree with the latter, yet disagree with the former. Current events would lead one to agree with both.

    1. JohnH

      How about “Israel willing to fight to the last American or to the last US$?” Until now, they’ve had very little skin in the game while taking gobs of US money and even some dead Americans in places like Iraq.

      Boots on the ground in Iran meant Americans, not Israelis, except for maybe some Mossad advisors there to direct to boots to their slaughter…

      1. TimH

        I agree that Bibi is willing to fight to the last American, but IDF have been taking a beating that Isr has hidden (with civilian casualties) from MSM, although the conscription activities should have been a cluestick.

  71. John k

    Everybody knows 20mb/day crude normally flows from the gulf to world markets, but this seems to seriously understate the problem. I’ve read that 20-25% jet fuel leaves too, so if that is correct the rest of a barrel’s products are also exported. The world produces about 100 mmt/d crude = 100 mmt/d boe (barrels of oil equivalent) and of this the gulf appears to be producing 40-45% of the total. And even this could be an understatement; the gulf is a major transit hub, meaning the gulf might be consuming more jet fuel of their production compared with their need for other products like diesel or gasoline.
    And they were shut in for 37 days, imo at least 40 by the time significant traffic resumes. 40 mmboe/d x 40 days = the world is missing 1,600 mm boe, or about 4x what is in the us strategic petroleum reserve. And it will likely be more weeks before shipments arrive at destinations even in the unlikely event the ceasefire holds.
    Little wonder countries are running out of jet fuel, oz might find themselves isolated soon. Luckily, their tennis open is behind them this year.

  72. Ann

    More than 100 killed as Israel strikes central Beirut after saying Iran truce doesn’t apply there

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mideast-conflict/article/scores-killed-as-israel-strikes-central-beirut-after-saying-iran-ceasefire-doesnt-apply-there/

    Pakistan’s Plea To Trump: Draft Of X Post Looks Scripted By Someone Else

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/04/07/pakistans-plea-to-trump-draft-of-x-post-looks-scripted-by-someone-else/

    Israeli airstrike kills Al Jazeera journalist Mohammed Washah after targeting his vehicle in Gaza

    https://english.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/169180

    Hegseth Melts Down at Reporter Who Points Out Failed War Aim

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/hegseth-melts-down-at-reporter-who-points-out-failed-war-aim/

    Trump says he may run for president of another country: ‘Polling higher than anybody’

    http://pennlive.com/news/2026/04/trump-says-he-may-run-for-president-of-another-country-polling-higher-than-anybody.html

    Trump Is Rage Posting His Way Into Genocide Charges

    https://newrepublic.com/article/208752/trump-post-iran-genocide-charges

    ‘How do we 25th Amendment his ass?’ Alex Jones joins calls to remove Trump from office over Iran threats

    https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-25-amendment-alex-jones-b2953069.html

  73. Tom Stone

    “Not agreement Capable” means just that.
    Can not rather than will not.
    Trump and the Zionists are no more capable of keeping agreements than a blind woman is of appreciating a painting by Gaugin.

  74. Bill Carson

    Opened my NYT app and one of the stories on the first page is “After 5 Weeks of War, a Look at What Trump Has Accomplished in Iran.” Underneath the headline, it tells me that this story is a “3 min read.” In other words, there’s not much to report.

    “MOVE ALONG! NOTHING TO SEE HERE!”

    3. hk

      Oh, he put the finishing touches on downfall of a great empire–the United States.

      Dang, Bibi looks like he aged 20 years in the past couple months.

  76. In Cold Chud

    I might be wrong (or this might be too obvious an observation to even bother making), but, if brazen market manipulation is the name of the game, wouldn’t one want each play to be as quick as possible, in order to have as many plays as possible, within any given period? Why would anyone think a “ceasefire”–or whatever it is/was called–would last any longer than it would take for markets to respond, and for insiders to place their next bet? (To be clear, I’m not saying anyone here did.) Yes, there are other things, like regrouping militarily, or the fact that we have a leader in terminal decline, but I’m just thinking in terms of this one.

    1. Doggo

      Market manipulation and making money is not the primary reason US attacked Iran. The primary reason is the DC neocon ideology of world domination and regime changing/destroying anyone who does not bend their knee to the neocons.

      This is not a new ideology, it is as old as human society. We had warlords and kings and emperors thousands of years ago who had the same desire to rule the world. What IS new is that these neocons are trying to dominate others while at the same time trying to pass themselves off as supporters of democracy and human rights. Obviously the two are mutually exclusive, so there is a whole lot of lying and propaganda and news media brainwashing going on.

      The market manipulation is probably just a side hustle that Trump came upon while bullshitting about nonexistent peace negotiations last month. He probably noticed that every time he said he is negotiating for peace and it’s going wonderfully etc, oil fell and stock market rose. So hey, why not make some money off that? But this is a minor motivation compared to the main neocon desire to smash Iran and make them into your puppet state and loot their resources.

  80. Wukchumni

    Such a drag to want something sometime
    One thing leads to another I know
    Was a time I wanted you to be a mime
    Nobody knew
    You threatened one day
    And then it went away like a passing cloud
    You made a threat, you said it out loud
    Out loud in a crowd
    Everybody heard
    ’twas the TACO of the town

    It’s not my place to know what you feel
    I’d like to know but why should i?
    Who were you then, who are you now?
    Common grifter by might, by day all that allows
    Back in my room I wonder, then i
    Sit on the bed, look at the sky
    Up in the sky
    Clouds rearrange
    Like the TACO of the town

    Maybe tomorrow, maybe someday
    Maybe tomorrow, maybe someday
    You’ve changed America’s place in this world
    You’ve changed America’s place in this world

    Oh but it’s hard to live by the rules
    You never could and still never do
    The rules and such never bothered you
    You call the shots and they follow
    I watch you still from a distance then go
    Back to my room, you never know
    I want you gone, I want you gone but now
    Who’s the TACO of the town?

    Talk of the Town, by the Pretenders

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX-NNhBWNdc&list=RDaX-NNhBWNdc

  81. Revenant

    Well here’s a very interesting claim from an Iranian MP, allegedly (English repost, no Farsi original provided).

    – Zarif and Larijani among others were in contact with Mossad and the CIA to accept power in a US-approved coup upon the assassination of Ayatollah Khatamei, in the manner of Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela.
    – at the last minute, Larijani had an attack of conscience and denounced the plot to the IRGC and security services. The plotters were put under house arrest rather than executed and then released during the war.
    – Sufficient hardliners have now been assassinated that the coup faction has no concerted opposition and the ceasefire is their project. Trump’s claim of a new Regime are effectively true.

    https://nitter.poast.org/theRenoNara/status/2041294389008294190#m

    Who knows, tin foil hat theory or the truth? Iran suddenly stopped attacking with initiative and relapsed into tit for tat exchanges. Why did it give up the initiative?

  82. Ann

    Vance to lead US delegation to Iran talks on Saturday

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-agrees-two-week-ceasefire-iran-says-safe-passage-through-hormuz-possible-2026-04-08/

    US, Iran agree to talk in Islamabad even as Hormuz stays blocked for now

    https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/us-iran-agree-to-talk-in-islamabad-even-as-hormuz-stays-blocked-for-now-126040801624_1.html

    Trump says Vance may not attend peace talks in Pakistan over safety concerns

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5822016-trump-iran-peace-talks/

    Democrats Introduce Impeachment Articles Against Trump and Hegseth as Nearly 100 Lawmakers Call for 25th Amendment

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-impeachment-articles-25-amendment-b2953836.html

    Trump Fumes as Iran Ceasefire Somehow Already on Brink of Collapse

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208788/trump-fumes-iran-ceasefire-brink-collapse

    The United States Is Self-Destructing Amid Empire Collapse: Dangerously wrong priorities will accelerate America’s decline.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/trump-2027-federal-budget-pentagon/

    Trump Just Fed America a Sh*t Sandwich

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-just-fed-america-a-sht-sandwich

    ‘Sounds good to me’: Trump ignored wary advisers as Israel’s Netanyahu talked him into war with Iran, report claims

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-netanyahu-meeting-iran-war-b2953804.html

    Trump Official Gives Vatican ‘Bitter Lecture’ Amid Growing Rift – An “unprecedented” meeting between the Vatican and the Pentagon took place in January, a new report reveals.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-official-gives-vatican-bitter-lecture-amid-growing-rift/

    US says Lebanon not part of ceasefire deal, Iran says it is

    https://www.dw.com/en/us-says-lebanon-not-part-of-ceasefire-deal-iran-says-it-is/live-76700191

    Ceasefire plan published by Iran not the one agreed by U.S.: White House

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mideast-conflict/article/ceasefire-plan-published-by-iran-not-the-one-agreed-by-us-white-house/

    Iran demands $1 per barrel of oil passing through Strait of Hormuz, paid in crypto

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5821752-iran-ship-toll-cryptocurrency-strait-hormuz/amp/

    Trump will discuss leaving NATO when he meets alliance chief

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/trump-will-discuss-leaving-nato-when-he-meets-alliance-chief

    Jewish groups condemn Trump’s threat that a ‘whole civilization will die’ in Iran

    https://forward.com/fast-forward/817555/jewish-groups-condemn-trumps-threat-that-a-whole-civilization-will-die-in-iran/

    MAGA isn’t dying. It’s testing how to survive Trump

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-maga-tucker-carlson-mtg-georgia-texas-11799137

    Delta Sees $2 Billion Fuel Hit With CEO Cautious on Outlook

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/delta-predicts-2-billion-fuel-hit-with-ceo-cautious-on-outlook

  83. LaRuse

    Now I didn’t listen to the video because I am in the office, but apparently the relevant quote from the Veep is:

    “The first 10 point proposal we think, frankly, was probably written by CHATGPT that was submitted to Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner. That immediately went the GARBAGE and was rejected!”

    FoxNews Clip courtesy of https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/2041975281712496676?
    If truly the US’s position, then we never really had a “ceasefire” or a pause. And since the ammunition never stopped firing, there defacto never was a ceasefire. This is starting to feel like it was entirely designed to get POTUS out of the gen0cidal corner he had painted himself into and give Mr. Market a little boost.

    1. DGE

      Even their spinning sounds phoney these days, the loss of competence is glaring.

      Just now someone sent me a tweet speculating that “Schrödinger’s Ceasefire” was an attempt to paint Iran’s continued attacks on Israel (because of the Israeli latest ethnic cleansing jamboree in Lebanon) and the GCC countries (garden variety retaliation) as breaches of the ceasefire, thus supplying Trumpenyahoo with the justification for the next escalation.

      Seeing as there are links above to MAGAniacs infuriated with Iran for “breaching the ceasefire”, I suppose the ruse has worked, too, at least on the brainwashed Fox/Newsmax blighters.

      1. danpaco

        That Tweet speculation may have worked too if Israel just did its usual daily bombing raids into Lebanon instead of the rage bombing we witnessed today.

  85. Samuel Conner

    Leavitt claiming that the Iranian proposal which is the basis of the “ceasefire” is not the 10 points reported previously, which she asserts is completely unacceptable.

    We don’t know what the Administration is claiming is the actual proposal.

    My sense is that the Iranians don’t agree with this take.

    —

    Perhaps, while the two sides publicly disagree about what is the “framework” within which negotiations might eventually begin, if the Admin can claim that the Strait is open, and Iranians and US don’t actively trade shots, the conflict may settle into something resembling Ukraine/RF, with proxies doing the hard work and getting shot at.

    1. Yalt

      The Admin can claim whatever they want but eventually the real-world effects are going to be impossible to ignore:

      BREAKING: An oil tanker attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz, but was turned away by the IRGC Navy — which confirms that the Strait is currently still CLOSED

      NEW: A total of four ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz today, less than in any other day in April including before the ‘ceasefire’ began

      No ceasefire, no negotiations, no change in status of the Strait. If the US wants to withdraw under those circumstances I’m sure Iran won’t object.

  86. Clueless Joe

    Well, US fools can claim all they want that Lebanon isn’t a part of the deal, but thing is, the Pakistani foreign minister stated as much a day ago when he announced the deal – total ceasefire from US, Iran and their allies, everywhere, *Lebanon included*. So now they’re making him look like a fool or a liar? That’s going to play great in Islamabad. Way to win or keep friends, idiots.

  87. Ann

    Pentagon Threatened the Pope After He Criticized Trump

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208820/pentagon-threatened-pope-criticized-donald-trump

    Lapid accuses Netanyahu of achieving ‘worst result’ in Iran war, ‘selling lies’ to the US

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-892383

    Republicans plan ‘unprecedented’ campaign spending to keep Senate majority

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/apr/8/republicans-plan-unprecedented-campaign-spending-keep-senate-majority/

    JD Vance reacts to report US official issued threat to Vatican ambassador

    https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-reacts-report-us-official-issued-threat-vatican-ambassador-11802350

    America Has Long Targeted Muslims, But Today’s Hatred is Different

    https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/america-has-long-targeted-muslims-but-todays-hatred-is-different

    David French and Suhas Subramanyam: The Superpower Folded in Front of the Whole World

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/david-french-and-suhas-subramanyam

    Vance says “ceasefires are always messy” and U.S. “never indicated” Lebanon would be included in deal with Iran

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vance-ceasefires-always-messy-u-s-never-included-lebanon-in-deal-iran-war/

  88. johnnyme

    World’s richest add $265B in one day as stocks rally on US-Iran truce hopes

    The world’s 500 wealthiest people added a combined $265 billion to their fortunes Wednesday as global stock markets rallied on optimism that a ceasefire between the US and Iran would hold, Bloomberg reported.

    The jump marked the second-largest one-day gain ever recorded by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, trailing only the $304 billion increase seen nearly a year ago after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on planned tariffs.

  89. Ben Panga

    So this whole ceasefire thing was just a way for Trump to escape his own Armageddon-deadline?

    2. The Rev Kev

      That, and also helping his friends make bank through stock market and online gambling options.

    1. John k

      This pretty closely agrees with an explanation of events I think I read here…maybe they’re reading these daily reports?

    1. Ignacio

      Canada, the EU, Japan and the UK are asking Israel to stop attacking Lebanon. Peace at risk. Netanyuhuu becoming more and more isolated. (Link in Spanish). There is also increasing internal pressure in Israel (apparently). With pressure mounting can Bibi keep strong? High pressure!

  93. NotDownUnder

    What A Mess!
    (I typically end a post with this…but)

    My take away is I am surprised a bit that Iran is having trouble countering the duo effect, i.e. two in one belligerents who keep agreeing only for themselves then the other is not bound to the others agreements… This seems to be the strategy that is so far working for the US+I. As a very old ‘people’ I thought the Iranians would have a clean counter to this.

    Possibly just keep fighting no matter what they both say, after the red line gets crossed which has happened, is the strategy. See how that goes.

    What A Mess!

  94. The Rev Kev

    ‘Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    The Failing New York Times and Fake News CNN each reported a totally FAKE TEN POINT PLAN on the Iran negotiations which was meant to discredit the people involved in the peace process. All ten points were a made up HOAX – EVIL LOSERS!!! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

    Apr 09, 2026, 12:56 PM’
    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116372497116210545

    And with that any sort of negotiations are toast. He may as well have posted the word ‘Psych!’ instead.

    1. .Tom

      I think he didn’t read the Iranian list that he included in his Tuesday TACO message. He has little idea what that message would seem to say to the rest of us.

  95. skippy

    Ack, groan/moan, spew …. I feel better now …

    Wellie I have been keeping a low profile as this dogs breakfast [Ad infinitum] slowly makes itself felt globally and here on NC. As of events today I thought I would pop my marsupial head up and add to the spew.

    WTF is wrong with everyone …. all of this stuff is decades in the making like the tender mercies of elite funded FIRE sector neoliberalism and its rational agent buddy atomistic individualism, let the markets sort it out. Same same with Ukraine vs Russia, all of the ME, all in plain daylight for anyone that could see or was somewhat informed. Drama now is that this ME fur-ball is a global event that eclipses, nay, on top of the effect of the Ukraine vs Russia dramas with a side of China whistling past a few graveyards.

    Heck anyone remember bhopal gas tragedy/exxon valdez oil spill and how Westren Corporate free market judiciary rolled [over everyone not in the investor class].

    Anywho onto this shiteshow … I am with Sach on how forensic psychologists peg Trump, drama is he has a lot of the same product as his team of flexians. Everyday is a new episode of his old show the Apprentice, produced by a mate, where its survival of the fittest, by bringing the money too him. Then some wonder why all or most of them is on some kinda psychotropic/alcohol to off set any niggling doubt or be more productive[tm] after intense long hours. This guy was a know quantity to a lot of people for decades, track record spanning decades, screwed so many contractors on his jobs, loves to hire weak people that he can shape and manipulate them … it goes on and on and on … so when anyone in the MSM or even here on NC act befuddle and reverse engineer this wingnuts mental state is either projecting or has a epic case of cope dysfunction. Bad news is odds are things are going to get worse, he is a total spaz and more concerned about some twisted internal dialog with himself vs the consequences of his actions and how the affect others. Some might ponder why he seeming had a man crush on Kim Jong Un.

    Lastly Iran … So … the best intelligence agencies in the West and Israel, after 50 yrs, got it all wrong. Iran was not crushed by economic sanctions, albeit it did create a situation where funds were used for non social free market feel good about yourself consumption which could be manipulated as the West does – see blue jeans in Russia – lol its natural[tm] and freedom [Bernays – we tell you what to consume]. So like Russia and China, Iran is not going to negotiate with terrorists or people that’s word means nothing all whilst the rest of the world that has experience the same thing on various levels. That is the real drama – the world is watching, learning in real time how it all really works… This will at the end of the day effect the very core/base line of trade – contracts – no matter what angle you look at them or historically safe legal harbors.

    On the military thingy with Iran … in one day or week Iran could have sent the entire global markets back to the stone age, they did not. Could have reduced Israel to Gaza, gone Rock the Casaba on all the US base nations, it did not. Its all very incremental, thought out in advance, it has a end goal, and always not as indiscriminate as the West or Israel, whom knew they had higher ethics and moral standards. Maybe a more educated society has an advantage at the end of the day once tech is a big player in outcomes. Further the w/hole rescue or some other plan was a total debacle no matter how you cut it – Bridge too Far comes to mind. These morons must had played COD too much and banned the more realistic old rank, before getting up grades driven by ideological/investor path dependency. Iran has shown, like Russia, that strategic is a dead cold war doctrine vs asymmetric doctrine. Your Navy/Air force and their costs are a liability when attempting to project it in a classic manner of empires.

    I still remember one of my old instructors when the Iran hostage event happened, 3 tours of Nom, all the bolo badges and a good sort regardless. Whisked away for this event which was a, at the end of the day, a media/PR opportunity all services wanted a slice of. No one even knew how to communicate with each other, airframes supplied by all, then the dramas about air filters getting fked with sand because the gear was not built for it [not Europe], never saw him again. Same with Black Hawk down stuff ….

    Amends all …

  96. Ben Panga

    I think one of the big takeaways from the past 36 hours is that Iran is not abandoning Lebanon this time

    That was, for me at least, an open question.

    Fars Telegram is full of fiery statements in support of Lebanon and against the Zionists.

    OTOH, I haven’t heard them mention Gaza recently. One thing at a time maybe.

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