News broke last week that starting May 1 Russia will no longer transit oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline. This is a disaster for Germany and couldn’t come at a worse time with the global supply disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.
The Kazakh oil that Russia delivers to Germany makes up roughly 17 percent of the supply at the Schwedt refinery, which provides the vast majority of diesel, petrol and heating oil for East Germany, including Berlin.
Schwedt itself was seized from the Russian oil company Rosneft in 2022, and as Germany scrambles to find new delivery routes for the Kazakh oil, this latest saga offers yet another reminder of how fantastical and self-defeating this whole conflict with Russia is for Berlin. Meanwhile, the news media continues to spin tales filled with half-truths, omissions, and outright lies. Politico’s Weekly Berlin Bulletin not only demonstrates the alternate reality inhabited by the German ruling class, but if we make some key corrections and fill in blanks, illustrates what a jam Germany is in:
VLADIMIR THE OPPORTUNIST: As Berlin reels from a fresh energy shock triggered by the Iran war, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have sensed a moment of opportunity.
The Kazakh factor: Moscow confirmed this week that it will stop the flow of Kazakh oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline from May 1. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the decision “is related to technical capabilities to date.”
Remaining leverage: But experts and some German politicians we talked to this week don’t believe that is a highly plausible explanation. Germany weaned itself off Russian natural gas and oil in the aftermath of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But Germany continues to receive a modest amount of Kazakh oil via a branch of the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Russia, still giving the Kremlin some direct leverage over Germany.
Every bit counts: Though the amount of Kazakh oil coming to Germany isn’t massive, amid an energy crunch that is hitting the German economy particularly hard, causing the government to slash its growth forecast just this week, every little bit counts. The halt of Kazakh oil flows, first reported by Reuters, comes as Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces rising pressure to cut surging fuel prices, and experts believe the Kremlin wants to maximize Germany’s pain.
Multiple motives: “It’s a convenient moment to increase the grief the refineries are in,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. But Vakulenko, an oil and gas industry expert, suggested there could be another motive. A redirection of the Kazakh oil to Germany would have to go through Russian Baltic ports such as Ust-Luga or Primorsk, which have come under increasing attack by the Ukrainian military amid its effort to reduce the oil revenue the Kremlin is using to fund its war.
‘Shield’ for Moscow: Kyiv increased its targeting of Russia’s oil export infrastructure, including the Baltic ports, at the end of March to reduce Moscow’s windfall energy revenues. Russia’s port oil infrastructure is vital to the Kremlin, serving as a route for exports to China and India. If Germany were also to need these ports to receive Kazakh oil, it could potentially pressure the Ukrainians to stop their drone attacks on these ports, Vakulenko said, acting as a kind of “shield” for Moscow.
Let’s have at it:
Key Omission: Why Is Russia Halting Deliveries?
Moscow hasn’t said but here’s officials in Kazakhstan: “This is most likely due to the recent attacks on Russian infrastructure,” Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said.
Ukrainian attacks, aided by Germany of course, continue to attack a wide range of Russian energy infrastructure. The media in Germany and elsewhere across the West love to claim that this is crippling Russia, but react with indignation when it affects German imports. Meanwhile, a blind eye is turned to other obvious sabotaging of infrastructure used to import Russian energy sources. A prime example is the recent standoff over repairs to the southern segment of Druzhba that sends oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
According to Zelensky the damages were caused by a Russian strike, and Ukraine was finally able to finish repairs just in time for its desperately needed 90-billion EU loan.
Of course, while demanding those billions, Zelensky added the following: “Although no one can guarantee that Russian attacks on the oil pipeline infrastructure will not happen again…”
And right on cue those dastardly Russians are at it again:
Ukrainian drones strike Druzhba pipeline station that produces export-grade oil – sources Ukrayinska Pravda
Hilariously, Germany now plans to receive the Kazakh oil via Russian ports —the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on the Black Sea and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, both of which have been under attack by Ukrainian drones. In the case of Ust-Luga, it is widely believed the drones are traveling from Ukraine through the Baltic states (if not launched from there) and have caused Moscow to issue stern warnings to Riga, Tallinn, and Vilnius.
Correction: Germany Has NOT ‘Weaned Itself Off’ Russian Natural Gas and Oil.
Take it away, Clean Energy Wire:
Energy industry association BDEW said that Norway has now become Germany’s top gas supplier by far, with about 45 percent in 2025, transported by pipeline. Around one tenth of the gas used in the country arrives as liquefied natural gas (LNG) directly at one of four import terminals along the coast. In 2025, around 95 percent of that LNG came from the US.
The origin of much of the remaining gas crossing the border into Germany from neighbouring countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Denmark is difficult to attribute, said BDEW. It includes supplies from a variety of world regions, with the US, Algeria and Russia as major suppliers. Thus, Russian gas arriving as LNG in ports in Spain, France and Belgium still ends up in Germany’s gas grid, even as direct imports have ceased. Think tank Agora Energiewende said that about a total of one third of Germany’s gas imports came from the US in 2025, if the US share in imports from neighbouring Belgium and the Netherlands is taken into account.
The US no doubt is now the dominant player, but Russia still exports plenty of LNG to the EU:
And contrary to what BDEW says, it’s not that difficult to gather some idea of gas crossing into Germany from neighboring countries. This gives you an idea:
So roughly 78 percent of Russia’s LNG imports to the EU are to countries neighboring Germany (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands). Unless they’ve set up some magical system to ensure no Russian gas gets mixed in with the others before it goes to Germany, weaned off Germany is not.
The same is true of oil. While Germany claims it is off of it, that is simply not true.
First of all, the Kazakh oil that comes through Druzhba, the world’s longest oil pipeline, is likely mixed with Russian oil. Still, the argument goes that Kazakhstan receives the payments so in effect Germany has cut off Russian oil financially. Also not true, however.
The Kazakh oil originates from consortia that include Russian partners like Lukoil (although Kazakhstan is seeking US approval to buy Lukoil’s Kazakh assets) and Moscow still earns transit fees.
Zooming out further, crude oil is notoriously difficult to track on global markets as it is mixed or blended. And despite a slew of harebrained efforts by Western officials, Russian oil is still an integral part of global trade.
There are more obvious cases like Azerbaijan, which has upped its exports of oil and gas to the EU. In turn it receives more supplies from Russia to cover domestic demand — and potentially mix with its exports.
Turkey has increased oil imports from Russia, as well as its exports to the EU. So has India.
The EU’s 18th package of sanctions that went into force earlier this year ostensibly tries to prohibit the import of refined petroleum products deriving from Russian-origin crude oil, but there are plenty of loopholes. From RFE/RL:
In any case, critics have warned that some refineries could try to conceal the origin of the crude oil used in their products to evade the EU sanctions.
They’ve also suggested that exemptions for countries, including Britain or Serbia, create an opportunity for oil products refined from Russian crude to be reexported to the EU.
CREA analyst Isaac Levi said the same tactic could be used within individual countries, since the ban relates to ports and refineries importing Russian crude.
“There’s a Georgian refinery called the Kulevi refinery on the Black Sea and it buys Russian crude oil, refines it into products…and it looks to be sending those refined products from a different port,” he told RFE/RL.
Why Fuel Your Enemy?
Politico’s write up of the Kazakh oil situation, like all the others in the Western media, omit some critical context. They do not mention that it comes at the same time Germany is enabling relentless attacks inside Russia, helping fuel a war that is killing Russians, is increasingly integrating weaponry production with Ukraine, converting auto factories to weapons production, and claiming it has plans to become the strongest military in Europe (not saying much) in order to take on Russia.
One could argue Moscow’s response is mild.
One Accuracy: It Is Impeccably Timed
If the halt of Kazakh oil really is a decision on Moscow’s part and not caused by damages from Ukrainian strikes, it’s certainly well-timed. From DW:
While the refinery is likely to have enough alternatives to maintain much of its supply, the news comes as Europe and other parts of the world are grappling with one of the most serious energy crises in decades.
The war in Iran and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the flow of oil to Europe and Asia, and has seen prices soaring.
Kerosene, needed for jet fuel and a key product from the PCK refinery, is in particularly short supply at present as a result of the crisis. Airlines around the world have been forced to cut flights, with Lufthansa slashing 20,000 from its May to October schedule this week.
Illustrative of the ongoing madness that has infected elite thinking in Europe, the DW piece concludes with the mantra that Russia is “weaponizing” energy exports and the only solution is to keep doubling down on the great weaning off.
Meanwhile, the very same sources are in shock that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party continues to surge. The AfD is commonly labeled “far right” yet there is debate over just how far right. Despite some controversial statements by party officials and support from Germans with neo-Nazi beliefs, the party is largely composed of conservatives opposed to open borders, anti-EU nationalists, grifters, and free market enthusiasts.
Whether one believes the AfD represents the rise of the Fourth Reich or are more run of the mill political opportunists, the fact is the party now leads the polls in Germany as it campaigns on the rising costs of living and argues (sensibly) for renewed energy ties with Russia and more Germans respond to alarm over the party’s downsides with one question: how much worse could it get?
We’ll have more clarity on that question come the Fall. In September, the AfD looks increasingly likely to win a plurality of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In the run up or aftermath of those elections, it’s entirely possible that Germany is plunged into new depths should the establishment act on calls to ban the party, which yes, is apparently a thing in the democratic West.
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Key long term issue here is that neither Germany nor much less Russia have ever been able to control Poland, which remains an Anglosaxon asset since the days of Reagan, Wojtila and Walesa. That’s why Germany chose to lay down the Nord Stream pipelines and that’s why Anglosaxonia blew them up (and agitated the Ukrainian crisis… but with pathetic German and French collaboration), etc.
At this point Germany has been so duplicitous and weak (for its demographic and economic weight) that they get no respect. Militarizing may be a desperate attempt at relieving some of the economic pressure but it feels like “too little, too late”, really. We should not forget how it ended last time they went that path of credit for militarism, I mean in the 1930s.
Europe feels like totally expendable this decade and the worst part is that there’s almost no statesman level of leadership anywhere (Spain being a partial exception, maybe add Slovakia but that’s about it). This is obviously because our economy and media do not belong to us, not even to our continental oligarchs, but to Wall Street, so we’re being sleepwalked to self-destruction in various ways in the benefit of foreigners, including quite possibly a suicidal war against Russia.
I don’t blame Russia for taking precautions, really.
Great comment and bang on target regarding the media/information space control. It’s depressing listening to people regurgitate US narratives here without any critical thinking.
JB
“And right on cue those dastardly Russians are at it again” LOL
TYPO “Azerbaijan, which has upped its imports of oil and gas to the” should be exports
Thanks Conor
Thought he meant imports from Russia for internal consumption to offset increased exports to Europe. Could be wrong tho.
Both right. It was a typo (thanks for catching, GrimUpNorth), and yes, Azerbaijan has upped imports from Russia to offset increased exports to EU
There are two further elements that make the supply of Kazakh oil all the more crucial for the Schwedt refinery:
1) The refinery was built and fine-tuned to process Russian oil with its specific physico-chemical characteristics. When the prohibition of buying Russian oil came into force, the result was that the refinery was forced to operate in a very inefficient, very polluting way with poorly suited crude from the Middle East. Worse: for quite a while it was incapable of producing enough diesel and kerosene, and no bitumen at all — products for which Russian oil is particularly appropriate, but not the other available sources.
Kazakh oil has properties that are almost identical to those of Russian crude. This makes it critical for PCK Schwedt.
2) Despite all the difficulties, PCK Schwedt finally managed to reach a utilization of its refining capacity of 80% since 2025. Kazakh oil represents 1/6 to 1/5 of all the crude it processes (figures vary); without it, the capacity utilization drops below 70% — which is the level at which the plant operates profitably.
Not having a reliable delivery of Kazakh oil therefore represents a much bigger headache for the managers of PCK Schwedt than just a dip in the quantity of available raw material.
Today I have been reading a report from Rystad Energy on the somber outlook for European refineries: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think. It is possible to download the report for free. What they say is that demand for oil will be destroyed first in refineries as these turn unprofitable. Their margins have been lowering to near zero in April and if Hormuz closure continues uh! oh! many will have to reduce capacity utilization on operative losses which in turn will result on consumer prices climbing in short (let’s say June). So, this looks like a blow to PCK Schewdt which might be amongst the first refineries in line to close or partially close.
The contributors of NakedCapitalism, starting with Yves, have long pointed out that the Gulf war has secondary and tertiary effects: less gas means reduced production of fertilizers, which means less food. Less oil from the Middle East means less diesel, which powers tractors and lorries, which means less food. Less refined oil means less sulphur, which has lots of effects on fertilizer production and refining of metallic ores, which means problems in lots of sectors. Less oil refining means less helium, which impacts electronics. And so on.
The issue with Kazakh oil for PCK Schwedt, and European refineries in general, reveals problems caused by discontinuities: reduce the quantity of crude available to Schwedt by just 15%, and the refinery may shut down because it is no longer profitable. Reduce the quantity by 40%, and its capacity utilization can only reach 48% — which implies it must shut down (for technical reasons, that refinery cannot operate below 50%). I am not an engineer, but it is fairly easy to find general information about the constraints on capacity utilization for refineries with one’s favourite search engine.
But European governments and the EU apparatus seem totally oblivious to these elements. They exhibit a strange form of innumeracy and illiteracy which makes them incapable (or unwilling) to consider the downstream impact of the war beyond the gasoline price at the pump. They are leading their countries to economic suicide, and I fear Europe will end up as some kind of Argentina — deindustrialized, impoverished, submissive to the USA (and Israel), diplomatically irrelevant, militarily negligible, an economic backwater to be plundered by the USA and China.
This is all a fine, real-life lesson in systems. Discontinuities, feedback loops, balancing loops disappearing. Otherwise, it must seem that some vengeful god or foreign entity is after us, and their primary strategic weapon they’re using against us is the idiot juice they’re feeding our elites, a “hardening of the heart” in Exodus terms.
Thank you, Conor. Hilarious and sad at the same time.
In “So Russia roughly 78 percent of Russia’s LNG imports to the EU are to countries neighboring Germany (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands).”, the first “Russia” reads as out of place?
Conor: “Despite some controversial statements by party officials and support from Germans with neo-Nazi beliefs, the party is largely composed of conservatives opposed to open borders, anti-EU nationalists, grifters, and free market enthusiasts.” This is largely true except in the East of the country where there’s a strong social component. I would recommend reading up on Benedikt Kaiser and his “Sozialpatriotismus”.
Great post. Thanks.
I don’t know why the EU is making frowny faces at Putin. They have been writing laws on their books to make it illegal to buy a molecule of that Russian oil and gas so all Putin is doing is to help them along their way. After all, he wouldn’t want to break any EU laws, would he. Even if the war in the Ukraine ended tomorrow, I’m pretty sure that the Russians would not help Europe out with their energy needs. Not after all that Europe has done to them. The EU is turning itself into a paramilitary organization and Germany is at the heart of this movement. Would Germany change it’s foreign policy if the AfD took power? I doubt it. To be honest as they strike me more of a Germany First sort of organization so may not change the foreign policy much. I honestly regret to say that Germany has a long way to fall first before they can manage to get rid of the people responsible for it.
re: Germany back to nuclear power?
This is seriously funny.
BERLINER ZEITUNG
use c&p for machine-translation
Return to nuclear power: Von der Leyen’s new course against fossil fuel dependence
The President of the European Commission is calling for a renaissance of nuclear energy for greater autonomy. Her proposal has met with mixed reactions in Berlin.
https://archive.is/ylaYG
“(…)“Since the beginning of the crisis in the Middle East, we have paid 27 billion euros more for gas and oil imports without receiving a single additional molecule of energy,” von der Leyen calculated.(…)”
Yeah.
And this is just the beginning, Uschi!
“(…)
Alongside renewable energies, she is placing nuclear power back at the heart of her strategy. Her focus is primarily on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Von der Leyen pointed out that Japan, Canada, Great Britain, and South Korea are conducting intensive research on this technology. “It is important for us that the path forward in energy enables technological neutrality,” she demanded.
(…)”
Jens Spahn (CDU) “(…)”There are studies that say the decommissioned reactors of recent years could be brought back online for around nine or ten billion euros.”(…)”
😂😂😂😂
SPD is opposed to it. The rest of the EU is going nuclear in the meantime.
Jens Spahn is rarely able to remember anything he did – so why should one believe he remembers any number correctly?
The decommissioned reactors weren’t exactly in prime state when they were closed down (these things were old, and mostly over their originally planned max-age), and have not been maintained since then. They are very likely beyond repair now.
Besides that there are manpower problems (people have different jobs now or are in retirement), legal problems of all kinds and lengthy approval procedures.
But even if we brought the experts back, killed all lawyers or just discarded any incoming complaints), and approved everything in a second, it still wouldn’t help today, or the the next year, or the year after.
And this is not even taking into account the german inability to do anything fast, and the general tendency of the nuclear industry to be twice as slow as one expects.
Additionally, the structures enclosing any old reactors and anything else near them or attached to them, will have suffered a material fatigue, similar to structural stress-strain fatigue, caused by years of bombardment by radioactive particles which was a result of radioactive decay of nuclear fuel. So, whatever material, WHATEVER MATERIAL, was good and strong and healthy 30 or 50 years ago, is now beaten up old man, struggling for breath.
I do not know Jens Spahn, have no time to investigate, but whoever says that they will bring the old and decommissioned reactors and related industry online, so to counter the energy supply disaster that the deranged elites created for their taxpayers, is either speaking out of a wrong orifice or has more likely sourced a money supply for yet some more useless but probably profitable grift.
No question over the points both of you are making.
I remember well those interviews given by various directors of NPPs in Germany in the wake of the Merkel decision and its implementation back in the day providing the cold facts. Once shut down and dismantled building back would be almost impossible. Certainly very costly.
Jens Berger from NDS e.g. did several pieces about these very issues.
But looking at it all, and how the Scholz government was mocking everyone – and legacy media often going along – who articulated doubts about not keeping some NPPs – I find it hilarious now.
Particularly the air of absolute certainty that a case where NPPs might come handy was totally and 1000% out of the question, rather hell would freeze over.
And here we are.
Had they at least pushed solar energy for instance and not letting the industry down for the benefit of short-term profits. But there was not the slightest of serious long term planning. Instead typical popular science BS at the PR front about hydrogen and, ahem, fusion reactors.
As the German expression goes: “Warum einfach wenns auch kompliziert geht” – “Why easy if complicated is an option.”
The incompetence in all this of the self-proclaimed greatest industrial nation on the face of the Earth. This caste of people should be simply ashamed.
Bwwwaaaaaahahahahaha! Couldn’t happen to a
nicersh***ier group of miscreants. I think I will have a wee nip of Islay to celebrate this move this evening.#LikeABossVlad
About energy imports into Europe/ EU.
Eurostat has a lot of charts etc. Title: *EU import of Energy products.*
Note, not related to Europe as a geographical area, which makes the stats. irrelevant. Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Britain, a part of Ireland (under a 2-state solution), Albania, and more, such as Switz. are not part of the EU.
The charts hides the importance of Russian imports.
Ex. (See figure 5) Imports of petroleum oils by Partner, lists Norway (part of geographical Europe), KSA, Lybia, Algeria, Iraq (more, see link) and has 30% ‘Other’ which of course comes from Russia.
It goes on to list ‘imports’ for various ‘energy products’ without ever relating them to any kind of overall ‘energy use’ statistic.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_imports_of_energy_products_-_latest_developments
All the ‘we stop using Russian energy’ is in part political theatre that serves to prop up some ‘aggression’ and ‘cutting off’ Russia, etc. In real life biz churns on – up to a point. (OK, see cutting off Nordstream, but that wasn’t done by the EU / Germany.)
To sum up, it is very difficult to put foward any cogent, decent analysis of what is going on in energy markets, one needs to be very wary, careful, re. ‘touted’ facts.
Figure 6 shows Russia on place 6 with 1.4%.
Yes. Indeed.