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Iran War: Iran Targets US Warships, US Reports Small Successful Gulf Transit, Iran Hits UAE; Putin Call for Middle East to Be a WMD-Free Zone, Challenging Israel Nuclear Program; US Renewed Strikes Still Look Imminent

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[Today’s Iran war updated launched before complete because jet lag. Please return at 8:00 AM or refresh your browser then for a final version]

The last 24 hours on the Iran front have been noisy from both a kinetic and reporting vantage. We will endeavor to give a quick recap of that action, since a lot is likely to remain disputed, potentially clarified much later (which leaves the initial impression intact), and does not have much strategic significance, and focus on the the more consequential development.

Also forgive me for being heavy on tweets today, but in news overload times, Twitter is good for obtaining new news and hot takes (which often includes debunkings). However, I did see an important breaking story on Tasnim, and not Twitter: Iranian FM to Visit China for Talks.

Keep in mind that even if all CENTCOM claims are true, that Iran did not hit any Navy ships, that 2 vessels got through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian opposition, and that the US sunk 5 to 7 (account weirdly vary) Iranian fast ships, this extremely limited achievement merely underscores that the US Project Freedom effort is another big fat US failure. Iran is still in control of the Strait of Hormuz and commercial traffic is either super low or non-existent.

On the bigger picture front, to which we will return soon:

1. The US looks set to resume large scale air strikes soon, perhaps in concert with Special Forces acting in a ground operation capacity

2. Iran hit the UAE hard as the UAE has been more openly and loudly working with the US and Israel. One of the big targets was the port of Fujairah, on the south side of the Sea of Oman coast past the narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. This is the delivery end of a pipeline that in theory allows the UAE to partly escape the Strait of Hormuz closure. However, the extent of damage is not clear

3. Iran has delineated what it considers to be its Strait of Hormuz zone of control. That includes Oman territorial waters and the afore-mentioned port of Fujairah. This is occurring as the US in its so-far lame Project Freedom is directing ship trying to leave the Gulf not just to go on the Oman side of the Gulf but also to coordinate with the Omani Coast Guard. This raises the question of where Oman sits in this conflict. Oman has remained silent os Iran has periodically said it intends to run its tolling operation in conjunction with Oman and share receipts (potentially with other “playing nicely” Gulf states too. Iran has denied reports that a small strike on Oman was its doing. However, Oman has signed UNCLOS, which commits it to support the right of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, so it seems obligated to support Project Freedom.

4. Putin has put the so-far-verboten issue of Israel’s nuclear program on the table, stating that the Middle East should be a WMD-free zone.

5. On the looming food crisis front, China may be more exposed than many surmise now.

Some overviews of recent developments, first from the BBC:

President Donald Trump says the US has struck seven Iranian “fast boats” in the Strait of Hormuz, as Washington seeks to guide stranded ships out of the Gulf through the largely closed waterway.

The UAE and South Korea both reported strikes on ships in the vital channel on Monday. The UAE also said a fire broke out at the oil port of Fujairah after an Iranian attack.

Shipping company Maersk told the BBC that one of its US-flagged vessels had successfully exited the strait with US military protection – under what Trump has called “Project Freedom”….

Trump said: “We’ve shot down seven small boats or, as they like to call them, ‘fast’ boats. It’s all they have left.” The US military said it had used helicopters to attack the boats.

Iranian state media later disputed Trump’s announcement that the US had struck the speed boats. Citing a military source, the Tasnim news agency reported that two small cargo vessels had been hit instead, killing five civilians.

The US earlier said navy destroyers and US-flagged merchant ships sailed through the strait on Monday. Iran called the claims “entirely false”, with its military saying it fired warning shots at a US warship. The US military denied this.

Later on Monday, shipping firm Maersk said its US-flagged vessel the Alliance Fairfax, which had been stranded in the Gulf since the US and Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February, had exited the Strait of Hormuz…

Meanwhile, the UAE’s foreign ministry reported a tanker affiliated with Adnoc, its state-owned oil company, was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea also reported an explosion on one of its ships anchored just off the UAE.

UAE authorities also reported air defences had engaged 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones. Local officials said one strike caused a large fire and three injuries at its key oil port of Fujairah…

The benchmark Brent crude oil price passed $115 a barrel shortly after the reports that Fujairah had come under attack, up more than 5% on the day.

We have become disappointed in Bloomberg’s too-obvious market-goosing, via putting the happiest possible spin on news. Here we have Bloomberg keeping up the bogus patter that there is a ceasefire when the fact of a US blockade is an act of war:

From the Bloomberg story in the image above on the Iraq discount offer:

  • Iraq is offering discounts for crude loaded this month, with tankers having to transit the Strait of Hormuz to collect the barrels.
  • The discounts include as much as $33.40 a barrel for Basrah Medium crude, according to a notice from state oil marketer SOMO.
  • Buyers who accept SOMO’s May terms are notified that “force majeure shall not be applicable to this offer, given that it has been issued under existing exceptional conditions already known to all parties”

Some commentary:

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193 comments

  1. Michaelmas

    YS: it is potentially a very big deal, since Russia is effectively saying it is not reasonable to ask Iran to limits its nuclear enrichment when Israel is widely believed to posses at least 100 nuclear bombs.

    Potentially.

    Not a thing about in the MSM, of course. Just the likes of ‘Estonian Border Town to Unveil “Putin–Hitler” Poster on May 9’ and ‘Vladimir Putin, the Man Who Broke Russia.’

    1. The Rev Kev

      It’s Israel’s fault. For some reason they have declared Russia to be their enemy, even though a large segment of Israel’s population was born in Russia itself. And it was only a year or two ago that the head of World Likud actually said this and over a thousand Israelis were fighting alongside the Ukrainians until the war in Gaza called them back home. They have been also selling military gear to the Ukrainians as well. Why this animosity I have no idea unless Bibi was just sucking up to the US.

        1. The Rev Kev

          Already told you. The head of World Likud declared Russia to be Israel’s enemy. Remind me of Likud’s position in Israel again? Bibi has also over recent years made anti-Russian pronouncements. Israel has also backed the Ukraine against Russia sending volunteers and military equipment. And have you forgotten the time when IDF fighters used a Russian plane as a screen causing that plane to be shot down by Syrian missiles killing the Russian crew aboard? Can you imagine the IDF doing that to an American plane?

          1. raspberry jam

            I am not going to pick apart the entire Gish gallop here mate, I am on a mobile at the airport, but I will just say Likud is a political party. This is like saying the chair of the global US Democrats saying Russia is their enemy. Would they say something like that if they existed? Sure, but it’s red meat for the base, it’s not policy. Big difference between that and Israel declaring Russia an enemy. They still have direct flights between them for Pete’s sake

            1. The Rev Kev

              ‘This is like saying the chair of the global US Democrats saying Russia is their enemy.’

              Don’t forget that it was the Democrats which started the whole Russia!Russia!Russia! thing back in 2016 to explain Hillary’s loss to Trump but it actually warped American foreign policy over the years to the point that the US now considers Russia to be their enemy. It happens. Anyway, safe travels.

              1. EY Oakland

                Wait: “to the point that the US now considers Russia to be their enemy.” “Now”?? The US has considered Russia to be “the enemy” since Bolshevism came to its attention. Read The Brothers by Stephen Kinzer. What do you mean the Democrats started the Russia-as-enemy thing? Come on. In the ’50s we were told at school that it was the Ruskie Commies who were out to get us. The US foreign policy has been warped for a really, really long time.

                1. JohnW

                  It goes back further than that. Victoria was at war on and off with Russia her whole 60 yr reign. Hell, napoleon invaded in 1812. The end of the Roman empire came out of the russian steppes. At this point Russia phobia is part of our cultural psyche. Nothing rational about it.
                  Also – kinzer’s book is excellent. Highly recommended

                  1. Ex-PFC Chuck

                    However, Russian support for the union during the Civil War was critical in enabling the North to win. Tsar Alexander II deployed Russian fleets in both the Atlantic and Pacific to prevent the British from being able to blockade American ports sufficiently to prevent the North from importing critical materials from continental Europe and Asia.

                  2. skippy

                    The 1800s in the ME is quite informative as a primer on currant events, before oil, geopolitically it was all over the shop. How that timeline and events shaped and still influence reality is a heck of a thing….

              2. XXYY

                Russia makes a super convenient enemy for anybody who needs one, because the US has demonized them savagely on the world stage for about a century. You can pretty much accuse them of anything and nobody will point out the facts of the situation, they will just start shouting about how Russia is their enemy, too.

                The EU has been at ridiculously over-the-top case study of this lately. Any opportunity to berate Russia has been taken up with unbelievable gusto in the last few years, even if it hurts Europe badly. The EU is certainly not the only practitioner, however.

                Certainly if you are trying to get in good with the US, declaring Russia to be your enemy is a very good start.

          2. Carolinian

            On the other hand over the years Netanyahu has been a frequent visitor to Moscow and it’s remarkable the degree to which Putin has taken a tolerant attitude toward incidents like the one you mentioned.

            In last Friday’s Judge Nap talk Ray McGovern–who speaks Russian–cited the readout of the recent Trump/Putin phone call as evidence that Russia has now explicitly warned against a resumption of the war as impinging on their interests. So it is quite possible that the Israelis are fast making an enemy of Russia with their Iran obsession and Greater Israel pretensions. And here’s suggesting that while Trump may be afraid of Miriam Adelson he’s also afraid of Putin who as a leader has everything Trump lacks–most especially intelligence.

            Israel/USA versus Iran/Russia–who’s going to win? Or will it be WW3 and we all lose? At any rate if McGovern is right then the Russians are now demanding an end to this and offering to mediate.

            1. Oregon Lawhobbit

              In last Friday’s Judge Nap talk Ray McGovern–who speaks Russian…

              Which makes me wonder why he always pronounces Putin’s name as “Poutine.”

              Not that my incredibly limited and rusty Russian is in any shape or form to correct him… :-)

                1. Oregon Lawhobbit

                  This is the whey.

                  @CM – Which is why it’s weird. Not questioning the assertion that McGovern speaks Russian, it’s entirely possible, but his pronunciation of something simple like that is … jarring.

                  1. Carolinian

                    He speaks it with a Bronx accent.

                    He’s ex CIA so maybe they care more about reading Russian than speaking.

                    1. Oregon Lawhobbit

                      He speaks it with a Bronx accent

                      All I can think of now is, “Hey, youse guys govoril po-russki?” ;-)

                      But the point about “read more than speak” is an interesting one!

                  2. lyman alpha blob

                    Thanks – I feel the same. I always wondered why he pronounced the name the same as a nasty instant heart attack Canadian side dish.

                    1. dt1964

                      In French, it is pronounced and written the same way as that Québec dish.
                      Président Vladimir Poutine

                  3. Doggo

                    Someone who is a fluent French speaker might still deliberately mispronounce names when speaking with an American Gringo.

                    I literally know someone like this, he speaks French at a native level. But when he is talking to me, he will still call the capital city “PERRIS”. That is, deliberately mispronounce the word so as to be understood by the other party.

                    If he were to activate his proper French accent and talk about “par-REE”, the Gringo he’s talking to will not understand wtf he is saying.

              2. Christopher Mann

                One thing I’ve learned about a lot of these YouTube “experts” is that they are full of sh*t. Putin is not pronounced “Poutine”. It is more like “Pootyin”.

                1. Carolinian

                  Ray McGovern was born and grew up in the Bronx, New York City. McGovern earned a BA from Fordham University, and received a scholarship to earn an MA with honours in Russian Language, Literature and History.[3] In the early 1960s, he served as a U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer and in the analysis division on Soviet foreign policy, especially with respect to China and Indochina.[4][…]

                  McGovern was a CIA analyst for 27 years (April 1963 to August 1990), serving seven U.S. presidents.[6] His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy, and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush.[7] McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President’s Daily Brief.[8][9]

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_McGovern

              3. Alanp

                There isn’t an exact English equivalent to the Russian pronunciation of ‘i’, which is somewhere between our short i (bit) and long i (marine). Russians vocalise with the front part of the mouth.

          3. johnherbiehancock

            Can you imagine the IDF doing that to an American plane?

            That’s not a great rhetorical question, because the answer is “Yes.”

          4. hk

            I think the correct characterization for now is that there are significant interests in Israel, likely including parts of government and allies and supporters of Netanyahu, as well as many others, who are eager to antagonize Russia, but these do not (yet) include Netanyahu himself and is not (yet) the official stance of the government. For all the recklessness, Netanyahu has been realy good at placating those whom he thinks he needs to cut deals with and, for years, these included Russia and China. Last few years have strained these quite a bit, but I suspect it’s way premature to think these are over.

      2. Lefty Godot

        In all likelihood, Israel has Moscow and maybe other Russian cities locked in as targets for the Samson Option, so Russia would be nuts not to welcome the elimination of Israeli nukes. But they have to be very careful about what they say, so as to make it look like a fair “eliminate all nukes in the region” moral stance. And there are undoubtedly Mossad agents in place within Russia, along with Zionist oligarchs, working to keep Russia “neutral” in the conflict. Israel is the deranged little giant that everyone else within missile range has to tiptoe around politically.

      3. Maxwell Johnston

        No, ISR and RU are not enemies.

        ISR has blithely ignored the western sanctions on RU. In any Moscow supermarket (especially the high-end ones), one can find lots of Israeli products. There are daily flights between Tel Aviv and numerous RU cities. Putin and Netanyahu have known each other for ages and get along well. Many RU citizens have ISR passports, and vice versa.

        Russians and Jews, very broadly speaking, share something fundamental in common: they both endured a near-death experience in the 1940s. As such, ISR does not screw around re matters of national security. And neither does RU. They both understand each other perfectly in this one crucial respect, even though their overall national interests don’t necessarily overlap.

        Once Putin and Netanyahu are gone and memories of the 1940s fade from collective memory, relations between RU and ISR might deteriorate. But for the time being, I anticipate no drastic changes. Putin’s comment re ISR nukes is a blunt factual statement, nothing more. He is saying out loud what others think, because he is in a position to do so. And he has a valid point.

        I will toss in one final speculation: watching USA opinion polls and general demographic trends, I predict that sometime in the next 30 years, USA will throw ISR under the bus. USA has a track record of flushing its allies down the toilet, and I see no reason for ISR to be an exception to the rule. When this happens, I expect ISR to turn to RU to be its new sponsor/protector of last resort. And RU might very well agree.

        1. raspberry jam

          Agreed on all counts and would add if Bennett defeats Netanyahu in September and Trump is replaced by Vance, Israel may turn to Russia much sooner (maybe as part of a settlement with Lebanon and Iran). Decades- even one- feels too long before US throws Israel under the bus

    2. Ashburn

      Actually, Israel’s nukes were mentioned in today’s Washington Post in what is another very big deal. Thirty Democratic lawmakers requested that Marco Rubio finally acknowledge what we’ve all known for some time. What I find most interesting about this acknowledgement is that the Glenn Amendment to the Arms Export Control Act, and the Symington Amendment to the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, could potentially prohibit any aid to Israel, since they are not a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/05/israel-nuclear-program-democrat-letter/

  2. Michaelmas

    The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists siding with the US in la-la land —

    Missing from US-Iran talks: plutonium for more than 200 nuclear bombs
    https://thebulletin.org/2026/04/missing-from-us-iran-talks-plutonium-for-more-than-200-nuclear-bombs/#post-heading

    ‘Whatever final agreement the Trump administration reaches with Iran, it should eliminate this option. The United States should demand increased inspections and the routine removal of spent fuel from Bushehr.

    ‘.(.. which is enough for more )than 200 plutonium bombs. Russian state-owned nuclear conglomerate Rosatom built Bushehr and has helped operate it for 15 years. Rosatom’s Director General Alexey Likhachev says that 210 tons of spent nuclear fuel are now stored at Bushehr….’

    1. hereweare

      Why “la-la land”? The existence of the plutonium and the possiblility of using it for weapons, or the likelihood of Iran agreeing to export it? I think the USA has made the latter increasingly unlikely in recent years, but the former seem real enough.

    2. motorslug

      Can you even make a weapon with spent nuclear fuel?
      It seems the BAS is directing more concern towards war-damaged release of radiation. Like a blown up Chernobyl or Fukushima.
      Were they to only show same contempt for izzy nuclear matters.

  3. raspberry jam

    Israeli media has been discussing the likely resumption of hostilities with Iran for a couple of weeks now. At the end of Passover when the two week “ceasefire” started, they immediately dropped the wartime travel restrictions and at the time I commented briefly here that I believed it was to allow diaspora visitors (and the nervous locals) to flee before the next kinetic round began. During the “ceasefire” quite a lot of business activity we have been pausing during the war was suddenly resumed and resolved (think acquisitions formalized with execs leaving the country to sign paperwork elsewhere). This is resulting in several of the higher-ranking (Sabra) people I am working with to accept roles outside of the country. Acquiring companies are non-US, non-Israeli, and non-European. Additionally, I am doing training in a couple of weeks in Europe and was trying to get a few of the Israelis to join. Yesterday I was told they aren’t going to be permitted to leave the country because the situation is too unclear.

    All together I agree we are about to see the kinetic phase resume with much bigger (visible) effects to Israel. Agreed unlikely before Friday judging by history

  4. Wukchumni

    We can never know about the days to come
    But we think about them anyway
    And I wonder if I’m really with you now
    Or just chasing after some finer day

    Anticipation of escalation
    Is making me late
    Is keeping me waiting

    And Israel will tell you how easy it feels to be with you
    How right your arms feel around Tel Aviv
    But I, I rehearsed those words just late last night
    When I was thinking about how a fight tonight might be

    Anticipation of escalation
    Is making me late
    Is keeping me waiting

    And tomorrow we might not be together
    I’m no prophet, but I don’t know conflicts way
    So I’ll try to see into your eyes right now
    And stay right here, ’cause these are the good old days

    These are the good old days
    And stay right here, ’cause these are the good old days

    These are the good old days
    These are the good old days
    These are the good old days
    These are the good old days?

    Anticipation, by Carly Simon

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BELWbkyOVPQ&list=RDBELWbkyOVPQ

    1. Michaelmas

      ChrisFromGA: Two air force refueling tankers disappear over the Strait

      Those are a very vulnerable attack surface which the Iranians would be smart to target if they’re able. And they probably can with the Chinese-Russian satellite access for ISR they have.

      With that satellite ISR (the Chinese systems are superior to the US) and the destruction of the US’s THAAD radar systems and various other facilities in the Gulf region, Iran largely possesses — and has possessed for weeks — the strategic advantage in terms of the OODA loop —

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

      That right there has historically been decisive in the vast majority of conflicts.

      1. What? No!

        This to me has always seemed like a no-brainer for Iran from day 1. Also they often get parked in herds in places like Ben Gurian airport and you’d think would be very vulnerable to a large cluster of cheap, splattery drones.

        Just how far off are those stand-off B-1’s, 2’s, and 52’s — you’d think taking out even one of those would be doable with existing tech (especially when you watch them on YouTube lumbering into the sky from UK airfields observed by people having a picnic lunch on a sunny day).

        What seems easy, and it might even be easy, doesn’t seem to happen, so it’s probably for good reason.

        What I’m hoping is that this cohort of senior, well-learned Iranian officials keep writing books and that they publish one about their strategies and observations of this conflict.

  7. mrsyk

    Thank you for the terrific maps today.
    The Sprinter Press tweet is posted twice (double tap?)
    Will sharp price reductions move product? Desperate times call for desperate measures.
    Word of the day, BOGO.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Thanks for mentioning the duplicate. Fixed now. Twitter’s embed function often resists putting a second embed in succession on the clipboard.

  8. DJG, Reality Czar

    UAE?

    I think that the Patricia Marins twiXt (read it all) doesn’t go deep enough into the UAE social contract, whatever it may be. For several months, Yves Smith and the other writers have posted news and analysis that indicated some distinctly odd decision making in the UAE. Yes, the elites of the UAE think that they are rational, but for months, the UAE has been acting like the Israel of the Persian Gulf.

    Sure, geography gives them advantages. See the location of Abu Dhabi. Even more so, Dubai. See the location of Fujairah. But the UAE is one big desert. The wasn’t an agricultural base to speak of before, and now with a population over 11 million, I doubt that UAE produces anything more than some local produce (dates, and such).

    Speaking of social contract, what “social” and what “contract”? The place is a boomtown, and not much else.

    Demographics are dire:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Arab_Emirates

    Quoting: “This led to an influx of workers from diverse cultural and religious backgrounds, increasing the population from 4 million in 2004 to roughly 11.35 million in 2024.[5][6] As of 2024, foreigners represent 88.50% of the population,[6][7] the third largest proportion of expats in the world in relation to the nationals after Qatar and the Vatican. As of 2024, the largest group of non-UAE nationals are South Asian 68.36% (Indians 37.96%,Pakistanis 16.72%, Bangladeshis 7.38% and others 6.3%), Filipinos 6.1%, Iranians 4.72%, Egyptians 4.23% and other 2.16%.[8][6]”

    Italian Wiki (tasso migratorio = immigration rate): “Il tasso migratorio netto del Paese è al 21,71%, il più alto al mondo.”

    Obviously, the so-called expats in Vatican City have good reasons for sticking around. When the bombs start falling on the five-star hotels in Dubai, what’s there to keep the Indians in Dubai?

    PS: Oman. Oman keeps coming up in today’s post. A few weeks back, Yves Smith included an interesting video about the history of the Gulf States. It turns out that Oman has been a state, and the ruling family has been in place, for more than two hundred years. The other Gulf States are all new creations — borders made by colonialists, and in the case of the Saudis, as part of consolidation in the aftermath of the decline of the Ottoman Empire. So Oman, which once stretched to Zanzibar, is playing its unique role — which involves some ambiguity. Good for them.

    1. Carolinian

      But the UAE is one big desert

      It’s one of the filming locations for the recent Dune movies.

    2. MicaT

      I can’t understand why UAE would align with Israel. Somewhere i saw that Israel has supplied iron dome with people to
      Operate it.
      And uae supposedly bombed Iran the other day with aircraft.
      Doesn’t make any sense to me but I’ll leave it to others to provide that.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Only a guess here but for years now the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been in intense competition with other. With the UAE aligning with Israel by signing the Abraham Accords, that not only gets them the technical support of Israel but also the de facto support of the US as well. Those would be big card to play against the Saudis.

        2. Observer

          Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem: The former CEO and chairman of the Dubai-based global logistics giant DP World was heavily featured in the files. He was mentioned over 5,000 times in the documents, which highlighted an “extremely close” relationship with Epstein.

          Google AI so take with caution

          1. A Little Bird

            Not really a shocker being that the UAE is reportedly a great place to launder money. Many international criminals are based (or were) based out of Dubai. Not just the fake influencer kind like the Tate brothers.

      2. NotTimothyGeithner

        Israel may have a relatively larger “elect” as a percentage of the population than the UAE, but both countries have the same perspective. Israel needs Western largesse to continue its reign of terror. The UAE elites need the US to help them bug out if the locals decide that the Americans were right in 1776. USians may not be wild about bringing in Emirs, so it’s really more a case of needing the US to blow people up occasionally and set an example. Muslim-heavy “democracies” are a threat to both as they will remove Israel’s claim to be a democracy and give the locals ideas about how things should be done.

        Besides the UAE has an over 80% foreign worker population. It is nothing more than a plantation. Like the Israelis they follow certain diplomatic niceties, but they aren’t like other nation-states.

  9. Tom Stone

    Putin’s remarks about the Gulf being WMD free are a very big deal indeed over the medium and long term.
    It’s the first time in this conflict that Russia has put its foot down, this is a shot across the Zionist’s bow and any remaining Israeli officials who are arguably sane are rethinking their plans.
    Bottom line, no Israeli Nukes = no Eretz Israel.

    1. Wukchumni

      Keep in mind that the neo-Sicarii assassination cult has styled themselves upon days of olde, and the original cult committed mass suicide at Masada after making their final stand against the Romans, back in the day.

      They apparently didn’t have a Samson Option or Samsonite Option.

      Masada is most renowned for its role during the First Jewish–Roman War (66–73 AD), when it became the final holdout of Jewish rebels following the destruction of Jerusalem. A group known as the Sicarii, a radical faction led by Eleazar ben Ya’ir, defended the site against the Roman Tenth Legion under Lucius Flavius Silva. The Romans laid siege by building a circumvallation wall and a massive ramp. According to Josephus, when the walls were breached in 73/74 AD, the Romans found nearly 1,000 inhabitants had died by mass suicide—a claim that remains debated among historians.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masada

      1. The Rev Kev

        After the battle the Romans threw the Sicarii bodies over the walls and far down the cliff face. Some of them claimed not to be dead but everybody knew what liars Sicarii were.

      2. hk

        Legio X, the successor to the original X from Caesar’ Gallic Wars! I didn’t realize they fought in Palestine, too!

          1. hk

            The original X, Equistris, came to fame as the most trusted legion under Julius Caesar in the Gallic Wars, later being recreated under names Fretensis and Gemini. Ironically, though, the actual original raising of the Legio X is unknown.

    2. hereweare

      “A group of House Democrats is urging the Trump administration to publicly acknowledge Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons program, a move that would abandon decades of U.S. policy but confirm what has been an open secret among intelligence officials since the late 1960s.
      In a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio obtained by The Washington Post, more than two dozen lawmakers, led by Rep. Joaquin Castro (Texas), say Washington’s silence on the program is indefensible amid the war in Iran and the acute threat of military escalation.”
      Washington Post – https://archive.ph/bSrC2

  10. The Rev Kev

    ‘Middle East Observer
    @ME_Observer_
    ⭕️⚡️ Source to CNN:
    US/Israeli attacks on Iran are expected within the next 24 hours.’

    I’m calling it for Friday evening – after the markets close. Trump has form here.

    2. Lefty Godot

      When’s Bibi coming to town for his Trump meeting? I would bet it starts shortly thereafter, when he’s safely in a DC area 5 star hotel. Some animals are more equal!

      1. hereweare

        May 11? Though of course Netanyahu might want to get there earlier.
        Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated on Monday that there is “no turning back from the path of negotiations with “Israel”, while conditioning any meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a prior halt to Israeli attacks and the conclusion of a preliminary security agreement.

        Aoun also dismissed what he said are “fabricated negative narratives” about sectarian tensions in Lebanon, and confirmed that his communication with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri remains uninterrupted.

        The statement comes as an Arab diplomatic source revealed to Al Mayadeen that US President Donald Trump is pushing for a White House meeting between Aoun and Netanyahu on May 11.
        https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/aoun-conditions-netanyahu-meeting-on-ceasefire–direct-talks

  11. les online

    If President Trump is a Psychopath as everyone believes, then he’s not concerned about US servicemen’s lives being lost. And he doesnt factor in the US mid-terms in his decision making as much as most believe…

    1. Wukchumni

      Late in the game, that other Teutonic teetotaler blamed the German people for letting him down, i’m seeing a repeat performance with hair furor.

    2. NotTimothyGeithner

      The midterms are definitely on the mind of the White House. The White House fully expected to denounce the Democrats as Commie-French seeing a boost. The basic problem is they don’t have a critical mass of people in the electorate who saw their housing values go up anymore who would enjoy the CNN Coverage and the economic issues predate the war. The Senate was moving in the wrong direction for the GOP before the war.

  12. ISL

    On China and food, four years ago, China was accused of causing food inflation, and currently has a majority of the world’s food reserves – with Chinese officials reporting wheat for 18 months (51% of reserves) and 60% of global rice reserves,

    https://farrellymitchell.com/agribusiness-market-research/food-beverage/

    Surprisingly hard to find a non-paywalled article – but the more regular source article headlines match the substance of this article.

    Also, 1 million tonnes of pork (regularly rotated) are stockpiled! I wonder about the level of

    From this article, US reserves are 5%. I assume current reserves will keep the oligarchs fed for 18 months, and everyone else can “eat cake.”

    https://ifp.org/dwindling-food-reserves-are-a-national-security-risk/

    On a lighter note, there is no specific national reserve of Shaoxing wine, but since it can be aged for up to 50 years, there is a significant supply line (which can be fed by rice reserves).

    1. mrsyk

      Good morning. On this subject,
      A strong El Nino expected later this year, together with the fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran, may threaten China’s agricultural security…
      Is that “fallout” a metaphorical slip of the tongue?

      Interesting and precarious times.

    2. LY

      US cattle inventory is at multi-decade lows, nominally due to drought but deeper causes are industry changes and consolidation. Gasoline, beef… what’s next? Potatoes? Plus another round of bird flu, and just what will the American diet look like?

        1. Wukchumni

          USA Today, translated into Pirate talk

          USA TODAY first reported in April on th’ concerns from family members o’ sailors and Marines on th’ USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli, an aircraft carrier and amphibious assault ship fightin’ th’ Iran war, and a bucket o’ chum. Photos shared with USA TODAY showed th’ half-empty cafeteria trays o’ two service members – one holdin’ a meager scoop o’ moist shredded meat and a tortilla, th’ other, a handful o’ boiled carrots, a dry burger patty and mysterious slice o’ gray-brown processed meat.

          th’ Navy continues t’ deny that there’s any grub shortage aboard th’ two ships. “Both USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli have sufficient grub onboard t’ serve their crews with healthy options,” th’ office o’ th’ Chief o’ Naval Operations wrote in an April 17 post on X.

          1. Ed S.

            My father was a cook in the Navy and I have his well used copy of the 1944 Navy Cookbook (funny in its own right for quantities like “Mash 100 lbs of cooked potatoes” and problem solving like “problem – food not salty; action – add salt”).

            Here’s the suggested menu for Tuesday in the Spring (meals followed the seasons so there are suggested menus for each day of the week and for Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter):

            * Breakfast: Stewed Rhubarb, Hominy Grits, Corned Beef Hash, Poached Eggs, Danish Twist, Butter, Coffee, Milk
            * Lunch: Chicken Broth, Ham & Macaroni Salad, Tomato Aspic, Buttered Peas, Lemon Meringue Pie, Hot Biscuits, Butter, Coffee
            * Dinner: Baked Pork Chops, Hashed Brown Potatoes, Glazed Carrots, Cole Slaw, Rice Custard Pudding, Rolls, Butter, Milk

            So the menu is “out of style” for 2026 but overall healthy and filling. And everything was made from scratch. No plastic bags of food from Sysco.

            For the curious, here’s the Tomato Aspic ingredients: Gelatin, water, tomatoes (5 number 10 cans @ 4 gallons each), chopped onions, salt, sugar, bay leaf, celery, vinegar. Yields 5 lbs. Serving size; 2 1/2 inch square.

            For the sailors at sea in the Gulf: it’s not your granddad’s Navy.

            1. amfortas

              as a retired chef, thats cool as hell!.
              my grandads were in the pacific theater, one in nave(uss swallow, minesweeper, engine room), other army airforce, airframe mechanic(where he learned sheet metal trade) but had to pilot his b-29 because the pilot was a whiskey drunk).
              so i grew up on shit on a shingle.
              i can cook a running dog, so there must be some psychological block to me cooking that properly,lol.

              in my own brilliant career, i spent 2 ‘tours’ on a supply boat, bringing provisions to rigs out in the gulf of mexico…for like 3-4 weeks at a time…as the cook…and yes all those wastrels called me cookie,lol.
              strange experience.lotsa #10 cans,lol…but also buiscuits and gravy from scratch, and the second time out, i smuggled a buncha herbs and spices on board.
              last voyage, captain, who was also a whiskey drunk, got a ship to shore from his wife as we were heading in to port…divorce, leavin him for his cousin…got shitfaced, as a storm was blowing in, got sideways in the swells, and threw all of us overboard(we were all on deck to watch our triumphant return) rolled that big ol boat right over.
              me and my buddy and another guy found each other and helped each ther to shore, and we walked in the strm all the way to the office, by this time, about 5am…got our checks and ran the hell off,lol.
              never found out what happened to captain, or anybdy else.

              1. Ed S.

                Who knows, maybe your navy grandfather and my father crossed paths (he was a submariner and having seen the galley in a fleet boat, it’s hard to imagine how they kept everyone fed).

                The other thing that strikes me as I flip through the book is how varied the menus are and how these kids who were truly Depression children must have thought about being able to eat as much as they wanted of quality food. Many had childhoods of “Grapes of Wrath” cooking (a meal of lard and flour).

                Here’s one more – Thursday winter lunch: Consomme, Baked Ham (with mustard sauce), Baked rice and cheese, Buttered Spinach, “Perfection” Salad (another aspic made with cabbage), Apple Crisp, Cloverleaf Rolls, Butter, Coffee.

      2. amfortas

        a regular big ol untrimmed beef brisket is going for $120-170 at heb in fredericksburg,tx, as of 2 hours ago. the wagyu brisket next to it was twice that.(idk what that is, really)
        pork, on the other hand, was dirt cheap…so i loaded up on ribs, bacon and boston butt.

        eldest son also has a line on 3-5 show pigs that didnt get sold last fall, so i’m moving things into place to shore up the pipe pen and put some shade cloth over it(due to mom’s hatred of mesquite trees) to get ready for them. we’ll feed them out through summer, and likely butcher in october. might give me time to get the meat bandsaw cleaned and repaired and re-banded.
        they’ll be either free, or real cheap.
        might need to spring for yet another chest freezer….and fire up the smokehouse, too,lol.
        somewhere around here, i have a couple of likely 100 year old amish hog scrapers, too…likely need new handles.
        300 gallon steel water trough over a fire and the forks on the tractor with a chain and crosstree to dunk em.
        rendering lard will be a challenge, and hafta be done in batches.
        make a party out of it….set mom to cooking, to keep her from micromanaging(room and some of that infrastructure is at her place…so the butcherin will be done over there.).

        i imagine that around that time this fall, most of y’all will wish you were my neighbors,lol

        1. dougie

          When I raised a few pigs for the freezer every year in Piedmont North Carolina I switched to fall/winter feeding after the first summer with biblical hordes of flies and huge stink. I would buy feeder pigs in September, provide them constant access to food for 6 months, then trailer them to the processor end of March. They would weigh 225-250 lbs on the hoof. No flies, no odor. I thought the cold would affect them until I saw them sleep in a huge puddle that iced up overnight. I was wrong about that.

          1. amfortas

            its fly season, here, right now…until october.
            ive got 2 cut lambs to butcher right quick(mom, as always, is the roadblock in doing things rationally)…but we can do them both on a saturday morning and have them quartered and in fridges by 9am, ere the flies arise….then ill spend a fe mornings cutting them up and wrapping/vac-sealing…and then grinding and vac-sealing.
            take me a week, after initial butchering day to get all their bits into a freezer.
            pigs are a bigger operation(a sheep is much like a deer) and will require chilly weather, sans moskas.
            pita to shave(one doesnt skin a pig)
            and after a summer of eating, i’ll have loads of bacon and lard and such.
            chitlins that day(chicharonnes) for the kids and the cats and dogs that will be hanging around, whining.
            obtaining lye might be a problem, for the dipping/shaving operation…but i have time to make some from wood ashes.
            main obstacle is getting that meat bandsaw up and working.
            for to slice bacon.
            (yeah, ive done this kinda thang most of my life,lol…including 9 months of living with swamp people…and receiving expert instruction from, essentially, modern day (wet) Fremen)

            1. dougie

              I don’t eat chitlins’, but way back in the day when I did my own butchering I would boil up a mess to serve to my city slicker friends. I always placed a kernel or two of corn up in them, just to see the horrified look on their faces. Hilarity ensued!

        2. Tom Stone

          Wagyu is a japanese breed, think Kobe beef without the beer.
          Most sold is actually Angus/Wagyu rather than straight Wagyu.
          Tasty stuff, try some when you win the lotto.

          1. TimH

            Angus/Wagyu, because it can be called Waygu in USA if one parent is Waygu. So, 50%. Then “Waygu burgers” can be so called if at least 50% “Waygu” meat, so now a little above 25%.

      3. motorslug

        The only possible positive (other than the destruction of a make believe non-state) that could come from this war:
        Millions more vegetarians and billions of non-human lives saved.

      5. hk

        There’s no local pork worth mentioning in the Southwestern US as far as I know: pig farms and hog slaughterhouses have closed down over past couple of decades. Most pork is trucked in from the Midwest nowadays.

        Might be a good time to give up pork in CA…

    3. Yves Smith Post author

      See this report from 2022. China has seen some food stress even with its reserves:

      Despite this remarkable progress, Chinese authorities are increasingly challenged to feed their 1.4 billion people. Recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, several outbreaks of African swine fever, floods sweeping southern regions, and severe droughts in the northern areas have revealed weaknesses in China’s food security. For instance, these events caused pork prices (the main source of protein for Chinese population) to spike and the imports of grains and oilseeds to soar to unprecedented levels. China is now the world’s largest buyer of key agricultural commodities, and it imports nearly 60 percent of global soybean export flows. These developments are in clear contrast with China’s decades-long efforts to develop and implement policies aimed at grain self-sufficiency. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has tried to avoid international dependency by supporting domestic production and by stocking grain reserves, and it claims that China has enough wheat and rice reserves to feed its population for up to two years. Nevertheless, these food self-sufficiency goals are threatened by demographic pressures, growing urbanization, climate change, land and water scarcity, changing diets, and extensive pollution. To counter this trend, the CCP has recently launched the “Clean Plate Campaign” to curb food waste, has provided guidance for livestock producers to reduce corn and soybean volumes in livestock rations, and has projected political discourses all signaling that food security remains a priority for Chinese authorities.

      https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2022/Critelli/

      1. Alanp

        In the last couple of years China has banned development on agricultural land, and enforced this by demolishing unauthorised developments, returning the land to agriculture. China has also implemented successful projects to halt and reverse desertification, which was swallowing up huge areas of farmland.

      2. ISL

        I think those problems convinced China to increase its food reserves. The current generation of Chinese are not the same as their parents – they have always had access to a vast assortment of really fresh vegetables, which cannot be stored. However, having grandparents with memories of the lean years will help the current generation standfast.

        The real problem will be what if we are not looking at a year-long fertilizer shortage, but five to ten years (if the wells are damaged). That scenario, which could happen, seems best described as Biblical and not in a good way.

      3. Al

        Interesting analysis. I noticed towards the end of the report the authors could barely contain their glee at potentially starving a billion people. Granted it’s a military strategy report, but still.

    4. Jhallc

      The two food pantry’s I’ve worked for get a significant amount of canned goods (veggies and fruit) originating from China (also Egypt). The food bank must get them for less cost than other USA grown brands. A loss or increase in cost, of the China market will put a dent in the ability to provide as much food unless they can increase their budgets

  13. The Rev Kev

    ‘Lukas Ekwueme
    @ekwufinance
    Top 20 countries at the heart of a jet fuel crisis’

    That chart is a bit concerning. The top three counties are the UK, Germany and Oz. The first two are in Europe so you can fall back on trains, ferries and automobiles. But Oz? We are a long way from anywhere…

      1. ambrit

        Soon, ICE can start sending the “noncompliant” to the resurrected penal colony in the antipodes. Saint Elon can provide the high tech sailing craft. Boston Robotics can supply the robotic guards. The RNC and the DNC can supply the “whips.” Starlink can supply the “connectedness.” In keeping with America’s new Pirate Ethos, Sutherland, just south of Sydney, on the shores of Botany Bay will be renamed Tortuga.
        Stay Ye safe Mateys!

      2. chuck roast

        I’m looking forward to all these Carnival Cruise type barges becoming the new iteration of New York to Liverpool packets. Imagine, serving a social function!

      3. hk

        Thr Third Age, perhaps? Clipper ships and windjammers emerged as cost effective competitors to steamships in mid to late 19th century. As such, they were quite different from old fashioned sailing ships.

    2. A Little Bird

      You can also see how ridiculous Canadas economy is, an oil exporting nation with some of the highest reserves in the world, that is a top ten importer of jet fuel for a country of like 30 million ish people. Literally selling the raw and buying back the refined. Swish.

  14. Ann

    Hegseth says ‘the ceasefire is not over’ after U.S., Iran exchange fire

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/iran-war-hegseth-trump-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html

    Pakistan Navy assists Indian vessel stranded in Arabian Sea, provides emergency supplies

    https://indianexpress.com/article/india/pakistan-navy-assists-indian-vessel-stranded-in-arabian-sea-provides-emergency-supplies-10673411/

    Iran introduces punitive visa requirements for Lebanese after Beirut cancels bilateral agreement

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-895192

    Romanian socialists and far right topple government

    https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-government-collapses/

    United Arab Emirates Joins Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran And More Nations In Middle East Reopening Skies In Crisis Recovery Move As Emirates, Flydubai, Etihad, Saudia, Gulf Air Boost Oparations To Seventy Five Percent After Ceasefire – Travel And Tour World

    https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/united-arab-emirates-joins-bahrain-qatar-iraq-oman-saudi-arabia-iran-and-more-nations-in-middle-east-reopening-skies-in-crisis-recovery-move-as-emirates-flydubai-etihad-saudia-gulf-air-boost/

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      The development in the last link was rolled back due to the strikes of the last 24 hours.

      UAE Restricts Airspace for Jets After Iran Launched Missiles

      The United Arab Emirates has partially closed its airspace for the first time in several weeks after Iran launched missiles and drones toward the UAE, in the worst flareup since the ceasefire began less than a month ago.

      The airspace over the emirates is partially closed and overflying the country is only permitted through certain routes for a week, according to a Notice to Airmen, or Notam advisories. Aircraft flow measures through certain paths will also be implemented till May 11.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/uae-restricts-airspace-for-jets-after-iran-launched-missiles

  15. Jeff Snyder

    Honest appeal, someone please explain to me Putin’s and the US’s fascination with preventing nuclear weapons in the Mideast where a few conventional hypersonic missiles can take out several nations’ desalinization plants and destroy tens of millions of lives and render it impossible to produce oil.

    1. redleg

      The US concern is fake- an excuse to wage kinetic and economic war. See North Korea for how seriously the US takes this, and they could hit the US tomorrow if they wanted to. Iran can’t.

      Russia? Who knows. I trust Russia to act more responsibly for humanity than the US and EU although the bar is incredibly low.

      Israel would be intensely concerned because it’s so small that one well-placed, medium sized nuke could effectively destroy the country.

    2. ambrit

      One possibility is that the use of nukes in the Middle East will shut off a major supply source of petroleum for the world for decades due to radioactive contamination. Think Chernobyl with lots of sand.
      I have read that radioactive contamination of the oil fields is a planned outcome of the Israeli Samson Option. “If we can’t rule the world, then nobody will! Wah!” Throws dreidel out of crib.

          1. hereweare

            Of course. But I thought ambrit’s idea was about the oil itself getting contaminated and unusable.

            1. ambrit

              Sorry to be confusing. I did mean that the surface would be unusable for decades, if not centuries. As far as I know, workers in the oil fields thus affected would be, at the least, slowed down and constrained as to what they could accomplish in that famously infernal realm. As in hard labour inside a hazmat suit with portable air supply in a hot environment. Robotics might make some improvement in production, but too many other variables will interfere.
              As for the oil itself becoming contaminated. That could happen if it is carried through radiologically contaminated pipes and tanks. John Varley wrote a semi-adventure book where the world’s oil fields are ‘ruined’ by engineered bacteria introduced that thickes the oil.

              1. hereweare

                As for the oil, I wonder if the oil and gas fields are large enough by area that new wells could be drilled where the contamination isn’t so bad.

                As for the pipes and wotnot, new stuff.

      2. A Little Bird

        Oil and gas are naturally radioactive, it’s because it comes from deep within the earth. The sludge in the pipelines, the crud and mud on the roughnecks clothes, all that stuff is contaminated. Oil and Gas is a nasty business. If you ever want to make yourself nervous and you live in an oil and gas producing region pull up a pipeline map and try not to pull out your hair.

        Obviously a lot of the stuff above ground would be destroyed/ radioactive, I don’t see it making a HUGE difference to the oil itself however.

        Wouldn’t they be likely to use tactical nukes if they did ? Im not an expert but from what I’ve read about them it wouldn’t be a Chernobyl type event if they did.

        1. hereweare

          Reactors like Chernobyl contain tons and tons of fuel, and over the years the parts of the reactor exposed to the fuel become radioactive too.
          The hugest nuclear weapons contain well under a hundred kilograms of plutonium – well, well under.

    3. hereweare

      The US isn’t in the least interested in preventing nuclear weapons in the Mideast, only in ensuring Israel remains the only country there with any.
      Russia may have brought the topic up as a way of siding with Iran and highlighting Western hypocrisy – if (knowing full well it isn’t) the US is worried about these weapons in the region, then how about none there?

    1. The Rev Kev

      Crooke seems to be saying that the issues between the US/Israel and Iran will have to be settled on the battlefield as all three sides have different goals. I’m inclined to agree with him and I think that the Russians understand this with the Ukraine too. Nice to see that Aurelien gets a shout out.

      1. chuck roast

        Similarly, the internal contradictions in Israel are such that the various factions may end up having to fight it out to exhaustion…Zionists, ultra-orthodox, secular, Palestinians. Seemingly impossible to reconcile. What a horror show.

    2. JohnH

      Aurelien explains this well–

      “The obsession of the US and Israel with the destruction of Iran, and the Iranian desire to preserve itself and to come to dominate the region, can simply never be reconciled, even by the most brilliant negotiators in history. This one, I’m afraid, will have to be fought out to a conclusion, whatever that might be.”

      https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/to-a-conclusion?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=841976&post_id=194948355&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=8qe6&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    2. Ignacio

      We might have forgotten but what was the reason for the explosion of wild food in China which resulted in SARS CoV 1 and 2? Food security.

  18. Ann

    The US Sanctions Paradox: How Punishing Enemies Is Pushing Allies Away From the Dollar

    https://www.ebc.com/forex/the-us-sanctions-paradox-how-punishing-enemies-is-pushing-allies-away-from-the-dollar

    Trump urges South Korea to join Iran war after ship fired upon

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5862570-iran-war-trump-south-korea/

    Egypt continues to receive Ukrainian grain stolen by Russia

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/05/8033265/

    Turkey has just announced it’s first icbm called “yıldırımhan”.

    https://www.ulusavunma.com/yildirimhan-6-000-km-menzilli-kitalararasi-balistik-fuze-sistemi/

    1. Ignacio

      Trump trying to bring South Korea, European countries, any other country, to his war on Iran resembles Zelensky doing his best for the same against Russia. Isn’t this telling? Symptom of impotence?

      1. The Rev Kev

        Well for men of Trump’s advanced age, performance issues can arise frequently.

    2. ChrisFromGA

      Somehow, I doubt that the grain was really “stolen” by Russia. More likely, the grain came from agricultural land inside of Oblasts in the Donbas that have been won in the war (Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, parts of Kherson), and this is sour grapes from the Z-man.

    1. BlueMoose

      What does ‘evicting’ really mean in this context? Where are they going to go?

      1. amfortas

        i’d et that i couild talk some ranchers hereabouts into taking them…so long as they were vaxxed for brucellosis.
        if i had more land, i’d take a few.
        far more robust than cattle, and theyre good eating.
        much more dangerous to work with, tho
        i know several folks who keep a few.
        was a relative fad in the late 80’s-early 90’s….even in places i worked in austin, houston and as far away as louisiana.
        but the slaughtering/processing infrastructure made it prohibitively expensive meat.(emu was a thing, back then, too…i cooked a lot of both)
        texas law in that regard has changed, somewhat, since then.(ie: im hearing a lot more, even way out here, about mobile slaughtering/processing outfits)
        more efficient than cattle in converting grass/brush into edible protein.
        just dont stand close enough to tip them,lol…because they aint cows.
        (ive scritched their ears on occasion, but with a sturdy fence between us)

    3. motorslug

      Just an attempt to keep the price of decaying flesh low for the masses who think it is an ‘American Right’ to eat our fellow animals.

  20. XXYY

    “The carrier [USS Bush] has more than 60 aircraft on board.” CENTCOM

    My impression is that manned aircraft have not been used much by the US to attack Iran, thanks to the fact that Iran has pretty good AD and the country is so large that aircraft have trouble with the ranges involved.

    Is that incorrect?

    1. amfortas

      will schyver(sp-2) goes on and on about this…as do many others on x.
      and yer right. the range on those planes is limited without refueling, there and back…which puts 2 planes at risk, there and back.
      and iran is twice as big as texas(so…pretty darned big)…to get anywhere without refueling, our regular bombers need to launch from well within ad range. thats why we’ve used up so many of the standoff weaponry.
      this is also why nobody has been stupid enough to try this before now.
      this problem didnt surface this year,lol.
      its been well known for a long time…and has just gotten worse as those crazy fanatical mullahs(sic) got more and more ready for our entirely predictable habits of warfare.

      1. ilsm

        USN carrier aviation needs refueled because the deck needs to be out or range. Likely more refueling per sortie than land based from Qatar, KSA etc.

        The USN aircraft require a drogue to meet the Navy fighter probe, while USAF fighters have hard receptacle.

        KC 135 can fly the drogue after some down time to fit it, the boom iis removed. KC 46 has permant installed drogue, and a center line boom. Probably why KC 46 is out there.

  21. hoytmonger

    Concerning the US claim that it attacked five to seven Iranian ‘fast boats’…

    The Iranians deny that any IRGC vessels were lost, but, after further investigation, found that two civilian boats were attacked and destroyed and five civilians killed…

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/iran-says-us-military-killed-five-civilians-in-attacks-on-passenger-boats

    https://www.rt.com/news/639450-iran-us-sink-boats-hormuz/

    But the propaganda has already taken hold.

  22. JonnyJames

    What’s all the fuss about folks? Things are great in the Imperial Homeland. Our god-like Emperor has everything under control, we are winning! The oligarchy is making a killing, oil is down today, food commodities down, S&P is up at record or near-record highs. Bloomberg and others report good things. Great investment opportunities, lots of money to be made. Time to party…

    What about the…nah, forget about it, who cares about tomorrow when we can make a killing today.

    (sarc of course)

    But seriously folks, the ruling class, oligarchy, or whatever we call them, are doing extremely well. This all looks similar to the run-up to the Crash of 08, in that the mass media and markets act as if there are few worries and things will be great. After Financial Winter sets in, after what is likely to be the crash of 26, ever more concentrated capital will be poised to buy up everything at fire-sale prices, and further monopolize the economy. But maybe I’m being “pessimistic” (or is that optimistic?) ?

    1. Samuel Conner

      Re: comparison to the GFC is plausible in terms of the “see no evil” media and financial market boosters, but I think the dynamics are very different. The present problem is a world-wide shortage of certain vital commodities that lie at or near the foundation of production systems (fertilizers, petroleum products, polymer precursors). The real-world impacts will be direct and difficult to mitigate. GFC was mitigated by a wide range of conventional and unconventional Central Bank policies; those won’t work well this time.

      1. JonnyJames

        Good points, I agree, I was just referring mainly to the similarities of the mass media and market boosters, who will likely say after the crash comes, “no one saw this coming” just like after the 08 GFC. (I recall at the time even Queen Elizabeth II, asking why did no one see this coming?)

        So perhaps the scenario I suggested regarding the oligarchy further monopolizing the economies of the US and vassals, after the coming crisis, might even be “optimistic” – it could be significantly worse than after ’08.

        Global production, supply-chain, logistics crises etc. will likely result in big disruptions of capital flows and lead to the Financial Winter that Hudson, Keen and others talk about. This is potentially so dire, it is hard for even a traditional pessimist to wrap my head round.

        1. amfortas

          my cousin, when we’re both drinkin beer, hates it when i start talking like that,lol.
          he’s 350 miles away, in houston, and…when in cups…just cant allow himself to see just how huge all this is.
          ‘doesnt matter’…’what can you do about it?’…etc.
          thing is, sober…he knows im right,lol.
          the cope is strong, out there. we’ve been well trained.

          usually, what precipitates his sometimes vehement denial, is me sending out of the blue some video of wilkerson, martenson, hudson, crooke, et alia.
          he cannot deny…so he denies, regardless.
          its too much doom,lol.
          in these cases, he asks me every time for a date certain for collapse….date certain for gas to be at a certain price…date certain for a sector of stocks, etc to fall…market mind…money is real, instead of a proxy for power…
          but it doesnt happen thataway.

          and the hudson/wolff scenario about inflation=>hyperinflation=>deflation just boggles him. ive sent him steve keen to try to cure him of his fixation on proxies and fantasy marker economics…and tisdale…to focus on the material world,lol.
          but to no avail.

          1. JonnyJames

            I have a couple relatives, and friends just like your cousin, I know exactly what youre sayin. One friend in particular knows better, but chooses not to “understand” cuz it’s just easier that way. The hardcore truth is pretty scary, and good ol’ Steve Keen has been really scary lately (chuckle)

            1. amfortas

              ive been weaning the guy off ‘obamas gon take our gunz’ to him getting a philosophy degree.
              i call that a win, bigly.
              he can think, now…but not about doom, not in his cups.
              largely why he gets into his cups(i accepted it long ago)
              here the doom is, all around us, but he simply cannot acknowledge it.
              i, otoh, revel in it…been expecting it for 30 years…preparing as best i could for it.
              how much better would my doomstead, as it were, be today, if folks like him…that had lotsa $ at various times…had contributed to said doomstead…where they, invariably, expect to repair to?

              1. amfortas

                brothers same way. makes gobs of money.
                hasnt contributed a cent to this endeavor. never wants me to even talk bout it.
                and yet he knows…from the bowels of corporate america, that i am right.
                he works in the backbone software industry(BMC), so he’s somewht insulated from all this froth.
                but the point is that he cant see the forest for the trees.
                he just cannot see the big picture.
                strategically.
                from a tarpaper shack on the moon, by the hill of picard, overlooking the mare crisium.
                like i do.
                doesnt have the bandwidth

    2. Howard L

      The AI bubble continues as long as the Persian Gulf energy infrastructure is not destroyed and long term interest rates stay in their wide band of the last 5 years. AI capex spending this year is estimated to be around 700 billion dollars with a decent portion of that being raised by debt. Even crazier, Goldman Sachs estimates 1Trillion dollars of capex for 2027. This is an enormous sum. Just imagine a USA stimulus package of similar size. The effect of this will be very narrow, so technology stocks are soaring while much of the population will feel poorer. Business as usual. This could be a worse outcome than the 1999 Internet bubble as that was primary equity based. As the big cap tech giants pile on debt, interest rates could really rise significantly. Eventually the bubble will pop and a real depression could result. Stock up on popcorn, it could get much crazier.

      1. JonnyJames

        Yes, and I do expect general conditions will worsen, but with having an insane emperor (not ad hom or hyperbole), who fancies himself a god, whose sycophants (including the so-called Secretary of War) claim he is anointed by Jesus, things are crazy enough already.

  24. Jason Boxman

    Patricia Marins seems to think there’s an unwritten agreement to make-pretend

    Today, two U.S. destroyers transited the strait into the Persian Gulf without being harassed by the Iranians. It’s possible they will anchor in the Emirates to reinforce anti-aircraft defenses.

    And why didn’t Iran stop these vessels? Because, by all indications, there is an agreement where Iran pretends nothing passes through the strait, and the U.S. pretends no Iranian ships are leaving the region.

    As I reported yesterday, about 25-35 Iranian ships loaded with oil bypassed the American blockade. Why? The U.S. priority is to maintain the flow of oil in the international market, and stopping Iranian exports would only worsen that. Obviously, this deal includes Iran quietly allowing the passage of several tankers.

    So, one side pretends to run a naval blockade against Iranian exports, while the other pretends the strait is closed to American military ships.

    Iran is the clear loser in this deal, giving Trump the argument that the operation freedom project, he claims to be implementing is actually opening the strait by force.

    Or perhaps it’ll be a fun time to get the destroyers back out of the strait. Not sure why Iran is a loser; if it is as she says, Iran is getting its oil out to some degree. Meanwhile, the strait is closed by and large. In the end, Iran’s control over the strait is a fact on the ground, and traffic will be managed however Iran sees fit in the future. No post on Truth Social is gonna change that.

    https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2051699367988379692

    1. Doggo

      Today, two U.S. destroyers transited the strait into the Persian Gulf without being harassed by the Iranians.

      She is starting from a false assumption. She was told that by US news media and apparently she believes it, but Iranians have already denied it.

      Iranians said they fired missiles at the two US navy ships, and afterwards the ships retreated. Doesn’t sound like they are sailing hassle-free.

  25. Ann

    ‘When You Think of It, We Shouldn’t Even Have an Election’

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/opinion/trump-midterm-elections-2026.html

    A Security Researcher Decompiled The White House App, & What They Found Is Pretty Alarming

    https://www.androidheadlines.com/2026/05/a-security-researcher-decompiled-the-white-house-app-what-they-found-is-pretty-alarming.html

    “A security researcher decompiled the White House’s new official app and found some alarming stuff buried in the code, including a hidden GPS tracking pipeline, JavaScript loaded from a random GitHub account, no SSL certificate pinning, and an in-app browser that silently strips cookie consent dialogs and paywalls from every page you visit.”

    Mamdani may be mayor, but Bezos still controls the NYPD

    “During the Met Gala red carpet, Jeff Bezos sent the NYPD to arrest Amazon Labor Union Organizer Chris Smalls”

    https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/amazon-union-leader-arrested-met-gala-2026-protest-1795096

    2. erstwhile

      Doesn’t say anything good about cops. They’ll serve money and bust unions, but when the going gets tough, like maybe there’s a video of a poor slob they’ve beaten, just because they could, they’ll go stone faced to their cop union and pretend they’re working folks, after all, that it’s a jungle out there and that thin blue line is all that stands between us and the savages. That thin blue line serves the real savages of the system, the rich and other elites that unknowingly, or not, make up a portion of the epstein class, a bezos type.

      I know. I worked five and a half years in a hard-scramble emergency room, and saw enough of cops to last me a lifetime

  26. LilD

    Just got back from another three weeks in China ( plus a few days in HK and Singapore)
    Most of china was near my friend’s village in Sichuan with lots of hiking and eating. Locals seem to love Xi, love Americans and think DJT is an idiot. Chengdu and villages were vibrant and prosperous. Had several big family gatherings and most people were happy though a 25 yo guy said he can’t find a job anywhere and a bunch of his friends are “ lying flat “; they have a place to live and food is cheap

    Singapore had signs up for assistance for people and small businesses impacted by the supply chain disruption and tourism seems down. Stayed in an upscale Chinatown hotel that was nearly empty, though staff said it was a slow season generally. Saturday night at the supertrees was sparsely attended when usually packed. Same day res at a Michelin star restaurant ( there are a lot of these!) was easy.

    Post jet lag, gonna restock the deep pantry.
    Brought home a few peppercorns and fermented beans 😬

  27. alrhundi

    I’m curious on people’s thoughts about if the goal of this war is to consolidate fossil fuel control as well as force a recession/depression. The tweet above notes how oil price increases are basically a guaranteed sign of recession. Many of the other policy choices of the administration seem to want to give that outcome as well when you consider workforce reductions through deportations and tariffs. We also know that many of Trump’s allies are part of the dark enlightenment sphere which is basically an accelerationist movement. A lot of things point to the administration trying to force a collapse (acceleration) to achieve their next phase of America and the world. With the collapse, the rich can buy up assets and obtain control, and the dismantlement of state institutions streamlines their idea for corporate city-states and alternative money schemes through the use of digital currency.

      1. alrhundi

        Interesting thoughts but I can’t help but wonder what is the next tool after fiat? If fiat inflates away, do the wealthy just hold assets that inflate with it to preserve wealth and power or is there a different form of preservation? There’s a big push to create digital crypto-fiat of different forms, is it to serve as an offramp from traditional fiat to some blockchain-based corporate city-state currencies and such?

    2. amfortas

      ive thought about this…depopulation as the big boys’ goal in all of this(and covid, and interteam violence, and rampant gun ownership in usa, and failing safety nets, deaths of despair, on and on)…blame great god market, who’s machinations are inscrutable.
      it would solve a lot of problems in the world, of course…but the moral question remains: who gets to live…of as the central leitmotif in the rejiggered battlestar galactica had it,
      “who is worthy of survival?”.

      they, in their certainty, reckon its them…obviously.
      my goal in life is to survive, with me and mine, to teach them otherwise.
      that they possess no divine right to rule, or any special powers.
      that they are just human beings that shit and fart like the rest of us.
      and that my autistic nephew is a more worthy human than they will ever be.
      and that i am far more free than they can ever conceive.
      they look rather like decent pigfood, too.

        1. alrhundi

          What is this document? Anything I look up about it doesn’t seem like it’s anything credible

          1. thistlebreath

            He was an analyst for Rand Corp. When he died, so did his annual world reports. There are many online versions of his final projection for 2025, most with added comments from posters who have their own interpretations.

      2. hunkerdown

        OK but we gotta dig deep into the history of Roman law to find some cures appropriate to the PMC “intellectuals” that live in neoconservative think tanks and create the competitive fertility cultism that is the “international order… caulking shut and filling with water is a good option. And if Haidt and his intellectual freedom organization even peep about it, them too.

  28. Christopher Mann

    —❗️🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran announces the ‘Persian Gulf Strait Authority’, a new legal framework for passage through the Strait of Hormuz

    According to the framework, ships can obtain transit authorization from Iran after contacting the authority and paying tolls.

    Ships intending to pass through the Strait of Hormuz can find the transit regulations by emailing info@PGSA.ir

    With the framework, the Strait of Hormuz is reinforced as Iran’s sovereign territory.

    @Middle_East_Spectator Telegram

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Nice, they’re putting a bureaucracy in place. Next, a 1-800 number for Taco to call when he’s not happy with the service.

      As an aside, can the kiddos get a summer job working for the PGSA?

      I remember during my youth, the New York State Thruway Authority used to pay $17 an hour to walk medians and put up fencing. Good-paying gig, back in the day.

    2. Rip Van Winkle

      Bring in x Illinois gov Blago to set up open road tolling for them. No booths, no gates, no quarters.

  29. Jason Boxman

    So we done?

    How important is Rubio announcing Operation Epic Fury’s conclusion? (BBC)

    Rubio made clear that Operation Epic Fury – the US bombing of targets inside Iran done in conjunction with Israel – is over.

    At least, officially, Rubio is correct. The operation as the world knew it ended when the ceasefire with Iran was announced.

    The question many around the world will be asking, however, is whether the end of Epic Fury really matters?

    When the ceasefire was announced, the conflict moved into a new phase.

    Rather than US munitions falling on Iranian targets, it is one focused on squeezing Iran economically, both through the blockade on its ports and through “Economic Fury” – the effort to cut Tehran off from global financial institutions and markets.

    As we saw yesterday, that status quo is tenuous. The vast amounts of military hardware focused on the relatively narrow Strait of Hormuz mean that shooting could erupt any day.

    Rubio, Hegseth and others have made it clear that military force is still on the table. And, as I mentioned in an earlier post, Trump said just this weekend that strikes inside Iran as a “possibility” if it “does something bad”.

    But the various comments we’ve had from officials today make it clear that the US has little desire or appetite for a return to full-scale operations that could further disturb markets, send prices skyrocketing and be unpopular with large swathes of Americans.

    1. amfortas

      they’ll gin up some insane reason to go and attack cuba right freling now because of some insane immanent threat, and hope that this whole iran thing will fade into the background…just like venezuela, greenland, canada, panama, ukraine, tarriffs, ice raids…and epstien.
      flood the zone with bullshit.

  30. Anthony Martin

    In my personal and unscientifc poll: 75% of the US population doesn’t like Trump inflation. 75% don’t like Trump’s high prices at the pump 75% don’t approve of Trump’s Iranian war on behalf of Netanyahu. In the event, event; my new poll will asking if an hour long video repeating “I am winning’ over and over again is a sign of insanity. (The Shining: RUMDRUM RUMDRUM,…..etc.)

    1. JeffRoss_MT

      Should be REDRUM, REDRUM. Murder spelled backwards, as was seen in the mirror. What a marvelous movie from a pretty mediocre novel!

        1. Late Introvert

          Shows what a middling mind King has, IMO. But it was his book. Another great film adaptation was Tarkovsky’s Solaris, but Lem was also not pleased. I’ve read that book, (but not King’s) and the movie is different. Both are great, IMO.

  31. Tom Stone

    Covid immune dysregulation ensured a large die off at some point, War and famine always encourage disease outbreaks and with the Public health system dismantled ( It was no great shakes before) in the USA it is going to get real messy sometime soon.
    An odd thing about the accelerationists I have spoken to, all of them expect that they and their families will be OK when things collapse, because reasons.
    It’s 100% of about a dozen people.
    Thiel and the rest want an idealized version of South Africa in the 70’s with total control of the populace via tech and thugs.
    Dig down a bit and they are assuming not just a can opener but a can of Beluga caviar…they have no effing clue where the things their survival depends on come from, ” No worries, I have Prime”.

  32. Ann

    A decades-long plan to abolish the Electoral College may finally pay off

    https://www.vox.com/politics/487766/national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-electoral-college

    Banks seek to offload risk to avoid ‘choking’ on data centre debt

    https://www.ft.com/content/08aba5e4-5834-4e79-a48d-989a2c5bad0f

    Rubio confirms Epic Fury over; U.S. responding defensively in Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_6f30e216-8282-4403-9137-8010f42214e4.amp.html

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Banks seek to offload risk to avoid ‘choking’ on data centre debt

      Step right up! Get your shit sandwich delivered straight to your 401k!

  34. Ann

    Golan: Zionist opposition must partner with Arab party Ra’am to topple government

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/golan-zionist-opposition-must-partner-with-arab-party-raam-to-topple-government/

    US okays potential $540 million C-17 support sale to Canada, State Department says

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-okays-potential-540-million-c-17-support-sale-canada-state-department-says-2026-05-05/

    Israeli defense company Rafael close to buying Volkswagen plant

    https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-rafael-close-to-buying-vw-plant-1001541977

    Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/trump-iran-deal-project-freedom-hormuz-strait.html

  35. Jabura Basadai

    Rubio confirms Epic Fury over – saw that pop on yahoo and chuckled – by mouthing those words perhaps they believe the fallout will end like a light switch turning off – an obvious concern about the effect on midterms – too late imho – and don’t think the Persians will comply and go along – the delusion of the illusion –

    1. Adam

      This could just be a way to avoid the 60 day time period from the War Powers Act before re-starting but claiming it’s actually new and that the clock should start again.

    2. The Rev Kev

      Operation Epic Fury is now over – along with it’s 60-day reporting limit. Next up. Operation Open the ****ing Strait.

      1. Jabura Basadai

        new name same game and flunky demopublicans certainly won’t point it out – dancing with shadows – it probably is a play on the technicality you and Adam correctly point out but don’t think it makes a bit of difference to the voter at the pump or in the supermarket – as well as the cascading consequences that are coming down the tracks without brakes –

      2. ChrisFromGA

        This is some next-level turd polishing.

        No naval op that lasts less than 48 hours, except perhaps some special ops amphibious “hit and run” mission could possibly be deemed effective.

        Agree that it is likely more rat-(family blog)-ery.

  36. Yalt

    And Trump confirms the end of Freedom:

    Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. President DONALD J. TRUMP

    2. Jason Boxman

      This must be the most spectacular failure in US foreign policy history;

      Iran now controls the strait. The existing government remains in place. The ballistic capability remains intact. The pixie dust is still in Iran’s possession. The US bases in the region have been decimated. Israel’s magic missile defense shield has been shown to less than completely invulnerable.

      Meanwhile, Iran has not yet stopped Israeli aggression in southern Lebanon, perhaps a much lesser priority.

      Maybe if Trump really walks away, there’s some eventual return to what passes for normal traffic in the strait, though.

      Trump certainly positioned a lot of equipment in the area to simply walk away at this juncture, though, and the blockade remains. And Iran doesn’t really want an ongoing blockade of its exports.

      Who’s move is it even next?

      1. Yalt

        Xi?

        Trump’s talking about other countries asking him to stand down while there’s Great Progress toward a Complete and Final Agreement and the only visible move on the diplomatic front is Araghchi in China meeting with the only third party to truly hold leverage over the situation. Random chance, probably, I prefer not to assume any direct connections between Presidential Tweets and reality. But it does occur to me that if any progress were in the offing there, Trump would likely be told about the progress but not that it involved his surrender.

      2. Sibiriak

        “Meanwhile, Iran has not yet stopped Israeli aggression in southern Lebanon, perhaps a much lesser priority .
        ————————————————————————-

        An undoubtedly high priority for Iran, a critical one in fact, is sanctions relief, and no progress at all has been made in that regard, nor likely will be.

    1. alrhundi

      Seems like he is only saying those numbers to make the current numbers seem good. An “Oil is only $100 not $300 like we thought might happen! See how effective we are!?”

  39. johnnyme

    German FM backs Israeli military’s ‘necessary’ Lebanon operation

    Germany’s foreign minister has offered support for Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon, describing the Israeli invasion as “necessary”, while warning that civilians must not bear the brunt of the fighting, according to media reports.

    Johann Wadephul, hosting his Israeli counterpart, Gideon Saar, in Berlin on Tuesday, said that “there’s every right for Israel to be there”, but cautioned that “Lebanon must not be allowed to become a theatre of war where it is the civilians who pay the price”, according to the AFP news agency.

  40. johnnyme

    Trump renews attacks on Pope Leo over Iran war and accuses him of endangering Catholics

    WASHINGTON (OSV News) — President Donald Trump on May 5 continued his series of social media and verbal attacks on Pope Leo XIV, accusing him in a radio interview of “endangering” Catholics through his opposition to the Iran war.

    Trump claimed in an interview that aired May 5 with Hugh Hewitt, a conservative talk radio host, that “the pope would rather talk about the fact that it’s OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

    The president accused the pontiff of “endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people” by opposing the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

    “But I guess if it’s up to the pope, he thinks it’s just fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump claimed.

    Trump’s comments to Hewitt come just days before Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is Catholic, is expected to meet with Pope Leo at the Vatican.

  41. johnnyme

    Oil Markets Face Precarious ‘Double Depletion’

    Two seemingly contradictory developments occurring in tandem—a drastic fall in global crude oil demand and a record drawdown in crude oil inventories—shows that the full severity of the greatest supply disruption in history is yet to come, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Energy.

    Oil demand is currently experiencing the sharpest fall ever apart from the 2020 COVID-19 experience, with total liquids demand in the second quarter of 2026 projected to be nearly 5 million b/d less than a year earlier. S&P Global Energy now expects full-year 2026 liquids demand growth to be nearly 2 million b/d less than in 2025.

    At the same time, April saw a record-setting decline in global crude oil inventories—estimated at nearly 200 million barrels (a daily rate of 6.6 million b/d). The second quarter of 2026 is expected to see the largest quarterly crude inventory drawdown in history at 5.5 million b/d.

    “While there have been significant impacts to date, the oil market has remained somewhat cushioned from the full impact of the of the loss of 15 million barrels per day in supply. That the cumulative supply loss is now approaching 1 billion barrels is a staggering figure that inventories cannot cover indefinitely. An inevitable market reckoning is coming.” – Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Energy.

  42. Sibiriak

    US and Iran nearing one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war – Axios

    The US believes it is getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to the American news website Axios, citing two US officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.

    Axios also reported that both sides have set a framework for more detailed negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, a key issue at the heart of deadlocked talks between Washington and Tehran.

    The US reportedly expects Iran to respond to several key points in the next 48 hours, and while nothing has yet been agreed, the sources told Axios this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.

    Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the US agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the strait of Hormuz , Axios reported.

    –The Guardian 10.32 BST

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