[Today’s Iran war update launched before complete because Things To Do. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
This post is likely to be a bit skeletal given the givens, so please bear with me. But it also includes some hopefully useful informational hygiene.
What little happens in the way of actual reporting on this war is already deflating the latest episode of Trump “Deal coming soon!” hype.
Even though we included it yesterday, we were skeptical of a report from the generally excellent DropSite, that Iranian sources said that Iran offered to have Russia or China hold its enriched uranium when Iran has tartly rejected that before. This is a matter of sovereignity, which as Robert Pape has stressed, is a zero sum game. Pape has also stressed that it is dangerous for Iran to concede on any important issues, since that would grease the path for the US and Israel chipping away at Iran. Other experts have said that the US not only needs to be defeated but seen as defeated so it won’t try to come back and attack Iran for a very long time.
Notice how this Bloomberg headline puts the happiest face possible on the increasingly visible gap between the two sides:
Iran said the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough.
Tehran is in the process of responding to a text submitted by the US, which “has narrowed the gaps to some extent,” the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported on Thursday, without saying where it got the information. “Further narrowing requires an end to the temptation for war on Washington’s part.”
While that signaled progress, a Reuters report that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad initially sent oil prices higher. Then President Donald Trump said he opposed efforts by Iran and Oman to establish some form of permanent toll system through Hormuz.
“We want it open, we want it free, we don’t want tolls,” Trump told reporters Thursday at the White House. “It’s an international waterway. They are not charging tolls right now.”
And how, pray tell, does Trump know whether or not tolls are being paid? Two of the vessels that proceeded through the Strait of Hormuz were China-bound tankers carrying Iraqi oil. Trump has no way of verifying if the Chinese buyers paid in yuan or bitcoin. Admittedly, with China and Iraq both friendly, either no fee or a very small one might have been levied. But many shippers have no reason to be transparent with the US about their toll booth dealings.
Confirming those reservations, a new Wall Street Journal exclusive reports Iran Moved Billions Through Binance to Fund Regime—Continuing Into This Month:
As Iran braced for conflict with the U.S., a key regime financier built a secret payment network to keep money flowing to its military forces. At its core was Binance.
Until as recently as December, the network, run by Babak Zanjani, an Iranian who is a self-described “antisanction” operator, made $850 million in transactions over two years on the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, mostly on a single trading account, internal Binance compliance reports show.
Zanjani allies, including a sister, a romantic partner and a director of Zanjani’s company, ran additional accounts, all accessed from the same devices—a pattern the Binance investigators flagged in their reports as evidence the group was evading U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Even after multiple internal flags on the activity, the main account continued to operate over a period of at least 15 months and was open as of January, according to the Binance reports. Zanjani’s use of Binance hasn’t been previously reported.
The funds are part of billions in crypto transactions that have flowed through Binance to networks financing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the two years preceding the current U.S.-Iran war, according to Binance compliance reports, blockchain data, foreign law-enforcement officials who track terrorism financing and other crypto researchers and nonpublic documents.
Foreign law-enforcement officials said they have continued to track money this year flowing through Binance accounts to Iranian entities associated with the regime—identifying transactions as recently as this month.
Recall that Trump so hearts crypto that he pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao who had served four months for money laundering abuses.
Back to the main event. Aljazeera’s live feed describes a fog of negotiations:
Significant challenges remain despite Pakistan mediating US-Iran talks
One hour we hear that significant progress has been made and then the next, reports emerge that huge disagreements remain between the US and Iran.
So it’s extremely difficult to read the situation here.
Iran says it still reading the US proposals and will convey its answer to the Pakistani mediators. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has been in Tehran for three days and is trying to bridge the gap between the negotiating parties.
Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir didn’t arrive in Tehran yesterday as expected.
Many believe that Munir will only come to Tehran once significant progress has been made. This would mark his second visit to the country.
Hindustan Times squares the informational circle:
The segment says that multiple Iranian sources said publicly that Iran would not let its enriched uranium leave Iran mentioning several, including a Foreign Ministry spokesperson. Hindustan Times had said there were some who favored making the concession tha it be held outside Iran but opposition to the idea solidified after Trump kept threatening attacks.
And on the continuing Trump noises about hitting Iran hard yet again…
Many readers are skeptical, despite the readings of from military professionals who get gossip from insiders, that Trump would return to a hot war, even if only briefly due to limited capabilities. Recall that professor Robert Pape also argues that nations locked in fights over sovereignity will typically choose to gamble on escalation, even if the odds of success look poor, rather than accept a certain loss by walking away.
In their Thursday morning Breaking Points show, Ryan Grim and Saagar Enjeti both said they expected the US and Israel to make new strikes. They discussed how each time before launching major attacks on Iran, Trump and Netanyahu feigned being at loggerheads.
We’ll turn to an early discussion in the show, of Iran clearly rejecting the idea of moving its enriched uranium outside Iran. From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Saagar: This is the latest breaking news. Reuters, Iran’s Supreme Leader has now issued a directive that the country’s near weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening the Iran stance on one of the main US demands. So this is by far Ryan the biggest sticking point of the entire deal. Not even potentially even more so than the Strait of Hormuz where the Iranians have shown some level of flexibility because effectively what this new directive from the Supreme Leader says is number one, this cannot be questioned, because it’s coming from the Supreme Leader. So that means this is policy. This is the policy that has been set out. Two, Trump has said actually that all of the weapons-grade uranium, in fact, all of the uranium has to not only be taken out of Iran, but they would not even accept it being sent to China and to Russia, which previously had been floated. Here, the Supreme Leader is drawing a complete red line, saying it is not leaving the country, period.
Which means that they will retain some level of control over it. They have offered in the past to down blend their uranium under IAEA inspections. And I know this can sound a little bit technical, but the bottom line is this: It is a huge middle finger to probably the number one nuclear demand that Donald Trump has made from the outset in this entire war.
Later in the segment:
Ryan: And as people have been pointing out, um, Axios published by Barack Ravid almost identical stories in, , June of 2025, right before the 12-day war started, and then again in February of this year, right before this ongoing war, started. So when some people saw that article, like, wait, I’ve read this twice before and I know what follows, war resumes..
And perhaps the Iranians are tired of this pattern and are kind of throwing in some type of new variable here >> because otherwise it’s like groundhog day. like Barack Ravid promises Netanyahu is furious and that Trump is on the brink of reaching a deal with them and then there’s a surprise attack and they you know they kill all the as many politicians and military figures and and middle schoolers as they can as they can in like a a short period of time…
Saagar: I think people should be pessimistic because in the way Trump has talked, Trump has actually trapped himself twice ironically. So he did the escalation trap where he didn’t def defeat Iran and so now he has only two options surrender andor uh basically escalation. The other trap that he made is he basically left himself no negotiating room whenever it came to the nuclear issue where he said, “No, we’re going to take it all.” And so those two things is way past the JCPOA and actually Iran in a stronger position now because of their drone threat, their ability to sustain and survive an onslaught of the full force and might of the United States Empire.
Keep in mind it is also not in Netanyahu’s general interest to depict himself either as having a falling out with Trump or at failing to get the US to continue to deliver on Israel’s demands in a conflict that is overwhelmingly popular in the settler state. Recall that the news of what allegedly happened in the call was leaked promptly to the press, and unflatteringly presented the two genociders as having gotten in a verbal row.
This Trump propensity comes despite more evidence of the dwindling US capacity to carry on militarily:
US used over half its THAAD interceptors defending Israel from Iranian attacks; also fired 100+ SM-3/SM-6 missiles. Israel used fewer than 100 Arrow and ~90 David’s Sling interceptors. US official says future Iran fighting could require even more US interceptors due to Israeli…
— ILRedAlert (@ILRedAlert) May 21, 2026
Not surprisingly, Israel is using the predictable impasse to press for a resumption of a hot war, arguing Iran will attack:
Israeli intelligence officials claim Iran is planning a major surprise missile and drone attack against Israel and Gulf states following the collapse of negotiations, while Israeli officials argue that Israel “must” strike Iran immediately to pre-empt the attack, as U.S.-Iran… pic.twitter.com/tYyi3A9Shr
— Beirut Wire (@beirutwire) May 22, 2026
I have not yet found an English language Iranian media source that says Iran has threatened Europe, but there are some independent claims on Twitter as of now:
🇮🇷💥🇺🇸🇬🇷🇷🇴🇩🇪The IRGC announced in case of a renewed conflict with the U.S. and Israel, Iran will consider targeting American bases in Greece, Romania and Germany pic.twitter.com/6FFrJgLUEx
— Hawkeye1812Z (@Hawkeye1745) May 22, 2026
But Iran had said on the 19th that it was prepared to take the conflict outside the theater if the US struck again. From Euractiv in Iran army warns will ‘open new fronts’ against US if attacks resume:
Iran’s army warned on Tuesday it would “open new fronts” against the United States if it resumes attacks, after President Donald Trump said he had held off launching a new offensive in hopes of striking a deal.
“If the enemy is foolish enough to fall into the Zionist trap again and launches new aggression against our beloved Iran, we will open new fronts against it, with new equipment and new methods,” said army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.
Japan Times tells us Iran can assert sovereignity over underseas cable without destroying them, merely by denying access to them for maintenance. From Iran’s threat to Strait of Hormuz submarine cables:
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened Monday to impose “permits” on submarine fiber-optic cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz…
Major connections running through the strait include a branch of AAE-1 (Asia, Africa, Europe), which connects points from Hong Kong to Italy and France.
Meanwhile, the FALCON and Gulf Bridge cables connect countries in the Persian Gulf — including Iran — with India and eastern Africa as far as Egypt.
Data running over the cables includes “all kinds of traffic, any data you can think of — videos, email, social media, financial transactions, government communication,” said Alan Mauldin, research director at specialist data firm TeleGeography.
The potential for global disruption is limited as data flowing between Asia and Europe on AAE-1 does not pass via the Gulf branch, Mauldin said.
What’s more, “all of the Gulf countries using submarine cables that traverse the Strait of Hormuz have multiple other connectivity options,” he added.
But Mauldin did note in a March blog that “the capacity of terrestrial networks may not be sufficient to handle the complete rerouting of traffic” if the Gulf’s subsea connections are cut off…
Hormuz is “a closed-in geographic area in a strait, with relatively shallow waters … it’s especially favorable for harassment operations using manned or unmanned systems,” said Eric Lavault, a former French naval officer.
Lavault pointed out that American forces have not been able to prevent Iran from launching operations from its long Gulf coast, with Tehran retaining “solid military potential.”
Iran could both attack the cables themselves and “prevent the cable firms from carrying out operations, either for maintenance or for laying new cables,” he said.
“If Iran damages them, they’ll have to be repaired,” Lavault added.
Cables around the world are regularly damaged — mostly by accidents, such as ships dragging their anchors. The International Cable Protection Committee tallied around 200 incidents a year, Mauldin wrote in March.
“A dedicated fleet of repair vessels is on standby,” he noted.
But these require permits to enter a country’s waters and must remain stationary on site for long periods — making them potentially vulnerable to attack.
The opening section of this segment shows a map with Iran’s claimed area of control in the Strait of Hormuz. Even if Iran does not have that all buttoned down not, one should assume it will soon:
Iran seems finally to be getting its Persian Gulf Authority operations in reasonable order. From Aljazeera’s live feed:
Iran’s IRGC says 35 ships passed Hormuz with permission in last 24 hours
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has issued a statement saying that 35 ships, including oil tankers and container vessels, have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
It said that these movements took place with the permission of and coordination with the IRGC navy.
Yesterday, the IRGC said 31 ships crossed the waterway in a 24-hour period.
But keep in mind that:
1. Many (likely most) of these vessels will be ships that were bottled up in the Gulf and desperate to get out. Many of their owners and crews would accept more risk to make an escape than they would for two-way transit. A low level of harassment by the US on the way to the Arabian Sea, particularly if the US captures or damages the occasional vessel, would suffice to deter a lot of opertors.
2. This level, while an encouraging improvement, is still way below the old normal of over 130 crossings a day
On the economic front, a new Eurodollar University talk returns to one of Jeff Snider’s ongoing themes: how the behavior of mass retailers confirms that budget stress on ordinary consumers is rising, as confirmed by Kroger attempting to lower prices…how exactly, with big increases starting in some products and expected to extend more broadly as the impact of fertilizer shortages and pricey diesel. Snider also describes better performance at Walmart as a misleading indicator as far as household budget health is concerned, since it is mainly the result of affluent customer slumming:
Another worrisome sighting is that in the face of higher gas and diesel prices, demand has not fallen meaningfully, due among other things to subsides, inventory releases, and happy official patter as opposed to signals to hunker down, such as warning that rationing may be coming soon:L
Yesterday the EIA said out loud what I have been repeating like a broken record for over two months: at ~100$ a barrel there is no crude oil demand destruction whatsoever ⚠️
Enjoy the governments subsidised party till it lasts, because what comes next will be brutal https://t.co/DUtZznZj9J pic.twitter.com/OohZqz66Qe
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) May 21, 2026
Confirming what I imagine are a lot of priors here, big money is finally betting against the stock market. But this may set up a monster short squeeze:
Hedge Funds have increased their short exposure to the highest level in AT LEAST the last decade 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/q1ahgaVoZz
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 21, 2026
Done for today! You may not see me on this beat again until Tuesday unless thing heat up. Let’s all hope for a quiet long weekend.
Done for now! If you started reading this post before the time of this comment, please refresh your browsers and re-skim.
Congratulations on being the first post in the comments section today!!!!
Also, yet again another huge THANK YOU!!! for all the work you do in these Iran War Threads, as well as your generosity in time and effort in the blog in general! I deeply and sincerely appreciate how you – and the NC Commentariat – make my life easier and waaaay more interesting and informed than it might ever be on my own!
Seconded
Thirded! 🥉
Fourthed!
Fifthed!
n**th’d!
Stalling another week?
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/05/22/usiran-draft-deal-mediated-by-pakistan-could-be-announced-within-hours-al-arabiya-source
(Quote from Times of Israel summary not the link above but their source is the al-arabiya link)
Israeli colleague still here on Malta has not yet received a notice his flight Sunday back to Israel has been cancelled.
Alternate interpretation: cover for “unwilling to negotiate” and no breakthrough so operation can begin late tonight. We will know in 12 hours
I appreciate the effort to help but this one was false, that is why I did not include it. From NO1:
Al Arabiya’s website makes me think they are one step above some random person on the street. There are no authors listed on any articles and would any Arab country even have access to that level of specific information on negotiations?
It looks even Iran had already accused them of publishing bs:
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/05/22/al-arabiya-condemns-iranian-media-for-attributing-fabricated-reports-to-network
If any random news site, no matter how sketchy, can promote a rumor and then effect the markets, there is a powerful incentive to commit insider trading and profit. Who knows, there may be a link between Al Arabiya and some hedge fund back in the US, or maybe the Middle East.
Too bad we don’t have a functional FBI or DOJ to investigate these sorts of things.
I think that it has finally dawned on Trump that Iran has escalatory dominance here and decisively so. He is inclined to launch a military attack – aka ‘negotiating with bombs’ – but the Pentagon must have explained to him that Iran will hit back that much harder and their attacks cannot be stopped worsening Trump’s position. Bibi is in his ear about attacking Iran again but even Trump knows that that is only so as to help him in the upcoming Israeli elections. And Trump himself has the Midterms to worry about which are looming up. No doubt he wants to draw a line under the whole fiasco, turn around and concentrate of campaigning for the Midterms and when they are over, attack Iran again. But Iran will not let him off the hook. Be tough for those soldier in theater right now. The temperature is climbing to 100 degrees Fahrenheit with I hear 100% humidity. Try carrying a full combat load, including body armour, in those sort of conditions. Not that Trump would care.
To reiterate a comment I’ve made previously (recycling is good!), “Trump wouldn’t know ‘escalatory dominance’ if it crawled up his leg and bit him in the diaper.”
As though escalatory dominance would do something like that – it would have to eat lawyers for weeks to get the taste off of its mandibles.
That said, it is likely that he does understand “dominance.” It’s unfortunate that there will be consequences from his inability to be the one doing the dominating this time around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYmSopkgIwE/ – the New Atlas
Just another view of some of the situations.
While there have been plenty of disagreements with some of Brian B.’s political assessments, and I’ve shared some of those disagreements, this a military point to chew on.
Leave it to BB to make anything and everything into China. He’s living in SE Asia same as Yves but her analysis doesn’t try to make everything about China. I’m having doubts about his analysis of late with his Chinese obsession. 🧐
There is useful info about a different view of the current military operation and escalation. The opening.
“this a military point to chew on.”
Make what you will of the political points.
About enriched uranium…
The US has stolen 13.5 kilos of HEU from Venezuela this year…
And collected 45 kilos, or more, from Japan as part of a 2016 agreement, allegedly to be “down blended”…
What is the US doing with all this HEU?
I would guess the same thing that they are doing with all the Russian refined uranium that they purchase – as fuel for nuclear power plants-
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-06-18/russia-continues-to-export-uranium-to-united-states
And I was reading here that uranium production will be down due to the Hormuz situation so any such fuel will be even more valuable.
HEU has been required for naval reactors to meet the power density requirements. Naval reactors have mostly been of the PWR type, a key consideration being they are load-following so must be able to rapidly vary thermal output. There’s also a need to be able to SCRAM, and recover quickly.
There has been ongoing research on LEU reactor designs suitable for naval use, but nothing concrete at this point.
It’s interesting to think about the negotiations from Iran’s perspective.
1.They want to show the rest of the world that they are reasonable.
2. By staying engaged in some form of talks, they keep the media cycles going and make it harder for Trump to unilaterally declare victory and leave.
3. They can stall military action, while economic pressure builds up from the continued strait closure.
4. They get to show the world that they will dictate the terms to the US by continually repeating the same demands and letting the US flail around in response.
It will be interesting to see how long it takes for this to reach the general population. Most still have an unjustified faith in Americas military power. A good example of the thought is Sal from “what’s going on with shipping?”
I beg to differ with #2. They absolutely want Trump to declare victory and leave….which is the last thing he wants to do (AIPAC and his legacy and all that) but Iran will do so by making continued engagement even more humiliating..
I agree. The US is leaving eventually (even if it takes years). They can leave unilaterally or leave with some concessions. Iran prefers the latter of course, and I’m arguing is taking actions to box out the former option as viable is a good move for them, as opposed to making it easier.
Re demand destruction–not much sign of that around here. Mere $$$ are not going to keep my fellow Carolinians out of their beloved and expensive vehicles until it gets much worse or there are actual shortages.
And thanks for trying to make signal out of all the noise. At the end of the day this whole thing could still be about little more than a crooked Israeli leader trying to stay out of jail and a dog who caught the car president (twice!!) whose only real aim is to leave scent markers of himself scattered around DC. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of real thinking going on by either of those two.
Re demand destruction. Hopefully it will not be a case of first gradually, then suddenly. The oncoming problems will not hit us linearly but in major steps. But when I look around, it is like people have forgotten that the Gulf is still mostly blocked and that we are on an express elevator to hell, going down.
Anecdotally, I was discussing economic concerns with an acquaintance from my children’s school. This acquaintance had no idea what the Strait of Hormuz was, and no idea it was closed.
It’s easy to forget how long it takes for reality to permeate to certain segments of society.
There has to be a recognition of the problem before demand destruction hits. This family is planning to drive on a very distance location after school gets out, and it’s not on their radar that gas shortages could be possible.
Look how popular cruise ship holidays still are despite the repeated health issues… CV19, legionaires, plus the recent virus. So many Americans are so mentally cosy in their world view that they cannot analyse situations outside that bubble, let alone assess risk.
Everything’s fine, we’re retiring to The Villages.
I know someone who is taking a cruise with her husband in a couple of weeks.
And of course the cruise industry is highly dependent on the airline industry since not many are going to drive to Miami or wherever to embark.
Hopefully they will not end up where this woman did-
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/21/nx-s1-5827015/american-passenger-order-hantavirus-quarantine
Recently took a cruise. I get your concern about my bubble, but please you do your risk assessment and I’ll do mine.
The Marvel Universe has descended in many American housholds… https://www.reddit.com/r/bjj/comments/ss9r93/not_100_bjj_related_but_there_are_10_of_americans/
Future Darwin Award winners-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwin_Awards
Another James Cameron contribution to the language!
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=fpas&q=were+on+an+express+elevator+to+hell%2C+baby%2C+going+down&ia=videos&iax=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DuDLQg8ZKBS8
Re. demand destruction: Trading Economics did note today that UK retail sales are down 1.2% due to a 10% drop in spending on gas/petrol/diesel. So there is a response to price signals in some places.
In GR the market crash began October ‘07, the recession ln December, but oil didn’t reach its peak for another 8 months, peaking I think around 150 and up 4x from ‘04. Seems people cut other things in order to fill their tanks and get to work. IMO we will see much higher oil… 225/b is the inflation adjusted number from the ‘08 summer peak.
If you mean the financial crisis, this is not correct. There were three acute phases before the biggie in Sept 2008:
1. July 2007: Failure of asset backed commercial paper and SIVs
2. Dec 2007 Year end liquidity crunch on steroids due to among other things worries about monoline insurers
3. March 2008. Bear Stearns collapse
In the vast waters of the Pacific and Cartibean, the USA constantly targets and hits speed boats.
Nothing on PressTV, so I call BS, particularly as Iran can make its points by targeting Gulf states infra and doesn’t need to target Europe.
Agreed. To hit Greece alone, they would have to fly their missiles over Turkiye which would cause Iran far too many unnecessary problems to even consider doing.
Maybe Cyprus?
If any more missiles hit the British bases on Cyprus, I do not think that the locals would kick up much of a fuss.
Or Crete? Souda hosts a US Naval base.
Souda is not really a US Naval Base, rather the US has a tenant Naval Support Activity on the Greek Base that coordinates logistics for US use of the NATO Marathi Pier Complex.
I suggest you use a search engine rather than making me waste time doing so.
Greece does not agree. An April story:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/greece-iran-nato-attacks-military-36952552
Actually I used Google to bring up a map of this region to check the flight path of any missile going from Iran through to Greece. Not a lot of options here. Greece may say that they are readying for an attack but this sounds more like PM Mitsotakis trying to curry favour with NATO by saying he needs help. A more likely place for Iran to attack would be any US bases in Israel or Jordan.
Ummm, there is a clear path to Greece via Iraq and Syria…
Not saying you are wrong, but the US is flying from Cyprus against Iran. You think just Diego Garcia? Iran has said it will widen the war outside the region. I just don’t see Azerbaijan, and there is nothing to be gained by the Somalia / Horn of Africa. That leaves Europe or direct attacks on the US cities as speculated by, I think, Daniel Davis. I do not think the US, as right now the US population is not supportive of the war, which could change if NY or LA are or Vandenberg are hit.
Separate question, would Italy really be upset (except a few fringe politicians who just happen to be in power) if the US bases were devastated? Would they really ask the US back? There is a lot of concern about Russia targeting those bases (and thus Italy) only because they are US bases in Italy – I do not call them NATO bases as NATO is the US.
You need to look a LOT further than one outlet to try to prove a negative. Your approach is like saying because a story did not appear on the New York Times, it must not be real.
IRAN HAD ALREADY THREATENED EUROPE, FFS. In March, per Politico. So the tweet is accurate if recycling old news:
Romania had thought it was a target BEFORE that warning. From the same story:
https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-war-europe-braces-tehran-attack-retaliate-threat-missiles/
The article also quotes a RUSI source claiming Iran has an ICBM, which I doubt.
While I did not find Iran naming names, I cannot search Persian language sites. There are often cases where articles run on Russian TASS but not English TASS. I have seen tweets in Persian by pretty connected individuals (like professors) provide factoids not in the English language Iranian media.
However, Iran has reiterated its threat of May 19 and more pointedly:
https://tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/05/20/3595826/new-aggression-against-iran-to-push-war-beyond-region-irgc-warns
Per below, Greece was preparing for attack before these warnings.
This article, which I found using the Yandex search engine, asserts Iran is moving toward missiles with a 5,000 km range: https://en.topwar.ru/191622-iran-sobralsja-uvelichit-dalnost-svoih-ballisticheskih-raket-do-5000-km.html?ysclid=mph689ght2555366786
Any objective evaluation of the forces involved in December would have shown that the USA and Israel could not prevail in a War Vs Iran, and that staring one would cause severe damage to the US and World Economies while vastly increasing the risk of a Nuclear Exchange.
I wonder how much Trump’s cognitive decline had to do with this stupidity, starting this War was stupid to the point of insanity and Trump’s actions since it began are also evidence that reality has little or no influence on US policy.
See Rubio on Cuba for further confirmation.
The odds of a horrific fire season in the USA are very high and the response by the Federal Government to Natural Disasters is likely to be less than reassuring to the public…
It’s going to be a lively summer and some of the news is going to be vastly amusing to those with a cast iron stomach.
For the rest of us , OH SHIT!
I remember a lot of comments here a year ago along the lines of leave UK while you can (if you can).
I say the same now for California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado because water and fire.
But there hasn’t been a publicised exodus from southern Florida for the obvious climate reasons (thus home insurance).
So, don’t live in or around any of the obvious evacuation paths either…
We’re not in as much danger here where I live in the PNW, south of Portland, but we’ve had several catastrophic fires the past few years. The 36pit fire in 2015 was a wake up call. Then the Beechiecreek fire in 2021, when we were saved from complete disaster by a bunch of private citizens who scrounged up enough men and equipment to fight the fire, when the state ran out. This year the snow pack is nonexistent and we’re in the depths of a statewide drought. I hope people have their bug out bags packed.
Eagle Creek was a good’un.
Couple seasons back it was so smoky and bad out here by Pendleton that visibility was only a hundred yards for several weeks.
An interesting article on the Strait of Hormuz and it’s place in Iranian history-
https://original.antiwar.com/reza_behnam/2026/05/21/the-strait-of-hormuz-a-constant-in-iranian-history/
Saagar: This is the latest breaking news. Reuters, Iran’s Supreme Leader has now issued a directive that the country’s near weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said
———————————————————————
Has this been confirmed? Yesterday I posted this :
Iran’s FM: Ayatollah Khamenei uranium order is baseless
That is a direct slap in the face of Trump. For weeks now he has been saying that Iran has to hand over their refined uranium as it belongs to America. He tried to grab it in that aborted mission in Iran but that was a bust. He also has Bibi in his ear demanding that Trump just ‘go in and take it.’ And now the Iranians are saying that it is not going anywhere but staying in Iran where it will drive Trump nuts. Just as Bush had Weapons of Mass Destruction for Iraq, Trump has Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Earlier he may have had a deal where Russia would hold that uranium on behalf of Iran after it was sent out of the country but it was Trump that slammed that door shut. Now it sits in Iran who knows where and forever out of reach.
The new reports were as of today and were from Reuters, which unlike on Ukraine, is pretty good on the Middle East and from a FM spokesperson per Hindustan Times. I also see similar reports from the UK’s The Times, CNN, WION,
Hindustan Times said the internal position changed after Trump kept making threats. The view seemed to be that giving ground in what appeared to be in response to a threat (when Iran has repeatedly insisted when it will not negotiate while being threatened) would only reward Trump for that behavior..
I checked Tasnim (main IRCG outlet), Mehr, Fars and PressTV and saw nada about a FM denial.
Thanks. I’m not disputing that Reuters did make such a report. The article is here .
The fact remains that the only evidence is two anonymous sources.
Meanwhile senior Al Jazeera correspondent, Ali Hashem reported that :
Bloomberg reported that :
And Fox News reported that :
See the new Iran post. There is even more evidence that Iran is not letting its enriched uranium leave Iran, regardless of whether that came from the Supreme Leader or other officials. Iranian leaders are also depicting the negotiations as dead, throwing cold water on claim that external information meddling are to blame.
More generally, Iran has consistently made clear it is not willing to discuss ANY nuclear issues now. It is insisting on sequencing: ending the war, reparations, ending sanctions, acknowledging Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz first, nuclear issues later.
The attempt to discredit that position originated with the White House:
Alastair Crooke also confirmed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyVazLRejw8
I would like to put a marker down for “False flag attack that Trump can’t ignore, after the markets close today, followed by much vigorous kinetic activity in the region.”
That’s my bet and I’m sticking to it!
Feel free to mock the heck out of me if I’m wrong… ;-)
You mean Israel hits gulf infrastructure? Or US military assets?
I think that could backfire as the source of a strike like that can be determined and shows it isn’t Iran. I get the sense that most in the US military want nothing to do with this, as it’s their lives on the line for a hopeless effort.
So I’d expect them to even leak it was a false flag before going along with a wider kinetic action based on it.
Doesn’t have to be Israel, and why not both? ;-)
But while I’d agree that the source of a strike can be determined – usually – such determination is only as good as the determiner wants it to be. If Trump – contra the Larry Johnson contact described below – is really rarin’ for an excuse to go, then I doubt that the MSM will make any effort to call him out if he “determines” that the strike came from Iran.
He can always say “Ooops, my bad” later.
I also think Iran/China and determine it as well. And if they do, they can choose not to respond and then provide evidence of the false flag as the reason they didn’t respond.
Sure, but false flag the other way. Unknown Instigator (UI for short, heh) launches a drone swarm attack against American assets in the region, from a small and unidentifiable boat in the Gulf. Or hits UAE infrastructure enough to leave a mark, but not actually damage.
Or even steps it up to cause some minor US/Israeli casualties.
The whole raison d’etre of a false flag is to attack yourself, blame it on the Other Guy, then use that attack as an excuse to retaliate. See “Gleiwitz incident” for a textbook example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
I’d suggest that that would result in “Game On!!!” from the Trump POV.
Larry Johnson’s informed contact disagrees with me. Return to war “unlikely.”
https://sonar21.com/trump-wants-to-attack-iran-but-does-saudi-arabia-hold-the-keys/
Johnson was CIA in Central America, only 4 years, decades ago.
This is a single source and second hand. As worse than MSM “anonymous sources” who are at least first hand. He looks to be becoming a victim of his own popularity and opining when he has less than great information.
Macgregor and Daniel Davis did combat duty in Iraq and have tons of Pentagon contacts. Larry Wilkerson focused on the Middle East for close to 30 years. Chas Freeman was the Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Macgregor also dealt personally with Trump as a Pentagon advisor. I would take their views more seriously than Johnson’s because they undoubtedly have more and more senior contacts.
Wilkerson also made a point that Johnson does not seem to appreciate. Saudi Arabia has protested the US being in Saudi Arabia (BTW as the Iraqis did for Lord only knows how long). Even though the US used that as an excuse to back off Project Freedumb, there were many reports on Twitter that the US was still using Saudi bases and airspace. Wilkerson said the Saudis would need to threaten to send in the guards to evict US troops to get the US to stand down in a big way. A mere objection wont cut it.
All true, all agreeable – and agreed to. I like Larry’s work, but “I’ve got a buddy who said” is not top of the line best case intel.
Nevertheless there’s that whole “candor to the court” thing, pointing out that there’s disagreement with my marker. The NC jury can be VERY unforgiving…. ;-)
Yes, that is fair. A personal frustration is when readers get wrapped around the axle on an issue that is not essential to the overall argument.
A personal frustration is when readers get wrapped around the axle on an issue that is not essential to the overall argument.
Substituting “defendants” for “readers,” it’s like you’ve been watching over my shoulder in traffic court! :-)
Haha!
I don’t mean to discourage accuracy, I don’t like having info that is wrong or might be contested, but having a sense of where it fits in the overall picture matters.
Yup yup yup!
There’s accuracy and then there’s “accuracy.”
“Sumdood said…” may be perfectly accurate, BUT the info that Sumdood conveyed, while possibly even honestly believed by Sumdood, may still not be particularly correct even if he’s relaying what he believes* are facts … let alone analysis and interpretation. As I said in a thread some time back there’s that whole alphanumeric information coding matrix which I consider pretty darned useful.
Larry Johnson describing a conversation/appearance with COL Wilkerson: probably pretty solid.
Larry Johnson describing a conversation with Sumdood he knows: well, maybe, but I’m’a’more skeptical on that one.
Could well turn out correct, and it’s not like MY SWAG thoughts have any particular merit, but some NaCl takings are in order. For both. I mostly tossed it in there as the first naga I could find. :-)
*it’s why we frown on hearsay, after all.
Wilkerson has also noted that Pakistan has deployed 6-8 thousand soldiers and a fighter squadron to Saudi Arabia. It’s unclear to him who the Pakistanis are there to defend KSA from- Iran? Yemen? Israel? The USA? All of the above?
Sole source for that is Wilkerson, on Nima and IIRC Judge Nap. I haven’t heard a thing about it anywhere else.
As indicated above, Wilkerson has spent 30 years in the region. He would know the limits of a protest. In general, hosts of US bases have legally ceded meaningful control, ex Turkiye with Incircik. I am not at all up on the fine points, but this is why Wilkerson maintains that the Saudis would have to more than merely protest but actually threaten more serious pushback. Look at Iraq or Japan or South Korea, where the host states want the US out or at least with a smaller presence, but the Asian states are too co-dependent trade-wise to get forceful.
That sort of thing is not public information and neither the US nor the Saudis would be included to discuss this sort of power struggle in public. Nor is what Wilkerson has been reporting on the new aggressive promotion of evangelical Christianity in the Armed Services.
For what it’s worth, I have noticed that the tracks of the USAF tankers flying out of Ben Gurion no longer enter SA airspace. It’s typically a take off over the Med, circle around and fly back thru Jordan into Iraq, then hugging the Iraq/SA border on the Iraq side, run the re-fueling race track patterns, then return via reverse route, and land.
But this is very much only what we allowed to see on flightradar24, and I’m sure the disinformation is every bit as thick as the information.
What if false flag happens and US military doesn’t play along? Say, USN ship (IDK where it might happen) shoots down a few Israeli fighters and captures the pilots? (Since Israelis have limited refueling capability, it’d probably need to be somewhere like Jordan or Eastern Mediterranean–where both “good targets” and Israeli capabilities coincide) There are a lot of people in US military who are at least very wary of Israeli perfidy after USS Liberty. Even if they were not, they would not remain so faithful if they get attacked themselves. If the attack does not succeed, and when the military leadership is already restless, the false flag cannot be hidden so easily I should think. If it happens, it’ll be a Ft Sumter combined with Pearl Harbor moment. Maybe Israelis are arrogant enough to try, but I don’t see anything good for them coming out of such an attempt.
To just summarize the possible scenario I hit on above:
Unidentified drone swarm from unidentified and unidentifiable ship hits (say) a US base or UAE infrastructure.
Trump, wanting to do it again (and expecting a different result) pushes the GO button.
That’s the purpose of a false flag – to give the “victim” an excuse to respond.
If you’re wrong I’ll be wrong with you.
I’ve been thinking today after 4pm edt for a couple weeks. Holiday weekend gives an extra day before market opens, trump might go with everything and bomb for 88 hours before market opens, then say it’s all over. But I wonder if in that case Iran stops then or continues a bit. I also wonder if Iran’s new defenses can do anything about high flying bombers.
The North Vietnamese with early model SAM missiles shot down 10 B-52s during Operation Linebacker II in December 1972. This was with direct overflights. If America keeps their B-52s way outside Iranian airspace, they might get away with bombing. This though requires stand-off munitions. This would severely deplete America’s effective aerial munitions supply. What then if China decides that Wake Island is within their South China Sea “nine dash line?” As the Lately Lamented Lambert would say, “Hilarity ensues.”
Stay safe.
Pakistan seeks breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-seeks-breakthrough-us-iran-peace-talks-2026-05-22/
MAGA’s Favorite Dem’s Trumpy Texts Exposed in Bombshell Leak
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumpy-texts-from-maga-favorite-dem-john-fetterman-exposed-in-bombshell-leak/
Trump’s building himself a bunker – it’s clear he knows he is failing
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trumps-building-himself-bunker-clear-knows-failing-4427052
Trump’s building himself a bunker – it’s clear he knows he is failing
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trumps-building-himself-bunker-clear-knows-failing-4427052
History rhyming again? What is it with dictators, bunkers, and … stuff?
Technically, Churchill had a bunker too. I visited it about 15 years ago, it’s right by St. James Park, a block away from Downing Street. Interesting to have a look, but even then ticket prices were outrageous. Now it’s 34 quid, apparently. I remember being quite surprised by just how small many of the rooms were.
So we need to separate “bunkers needed because of an actual war going on” from “ruler fortifying himself against the people”, or something along those lines.
Seems to be a thing…
I lived a couple of blocks from the Obamas in Chicago and I don’t recall the city having to close off the streets around his house whenever he was home. Of course he wasn’t President yet. But Vance isn’t yet, either.
Found this gem for use when conversation turns to Iranian uranium or nukes:
A selection of warnings about an imminent Iranian nuclear weapon:
1984 – Jane’s Defense Weekly: Iran may have nuclear weapons within two years.
1992 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran close to having a bomb by 1999.
1993 – Yitzhak Rabin: Iran is building nuclear weapons, the world must act.
1995 – US government: Iran’s nuclear weapons plans must be stopped
1998 – Madeleine Albright: Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons.
2000 – Bill Clinton: Law against support for Iran’s weapons program.
2002 – George W. Bush: Iran threatens with nuclear weapons plans.
2004 – U.S. National Intelligence Estimate: Iran probably moving toward nuclear weapons.
2005 – Ariel Sharon: Iran close to technical solution for bomb.
2006 – George W. Bush: Iran’s nuclear plans threaten peace.
2007 – US intelligence: Iran paused its weapons program in 2003 but is rebuilding capacity.
2008 – Ehud Olmert: Iran close to irreversible nuclear weapons point.
2009 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran three to five years from bomb.
2010 – Barack Obama: Iran’s nuclear program a major threat.
2011 – Leon Panetta: Iran could have a bomb within a year.
2012 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran close to the “red line” for nuclear weapons.
2013 – Moshe Ya’alon: Iran very close to the nuclear threshold.
2014 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran on its way to becoming a nuclear power.
2015 – Benjamin Netanyahu: JCPOA (nuclear agreement with Iran) paves the way for Iran’s bomb.
2017 – Donald Trump: Iran could quickly obtain nuclear weapons.
2018 – Mike Pompeo: Iran is seeking nuclear weapons despite JCPOA.
2019 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran close to manufacturing an atomic bomb.
2020 – Donald Trump: Iran economically weak but nuclear threat remains.
2021 – Joe Biden: Iran must comply with JCPOA to stop nuclear weapons.
2023 – Yoav Gallant: Iran closer to the bomb than ever.
2024 – US intelligence: Iran months away from nuclear weapons.
2025 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran could build nine nuclear weapons.
2025 – Donald Trump: US could bomb Iran if nuclear program is not stopped.
Yeah, but THIS time we’re sure of it!
Nice summary.
While US/Israel frothed at the mouth for decades, no mention of Israeli nukes from them or the mass media mouthpiece. No mention of Iranian sovereignty, double-standards, falsehoods, hypocrisy and the US being the only country to use nuclear weapons (on civilians no less).
Anyone who criticize or comment on Israeli policy is anti Semitic, and anyone who criticizes US policy “hates America”
This is typical 6th grade level discourse regarding foreign policy, but it is effective. The Epstein Class media monopoly flood the zone with this BS for decades, while ignoring inconvenient facts. The racist/Orientalist propaganda has instant traction due to centuries old biases against the Orient/East in western academia, media, and politics. They (Iranians) are just insane, evil people (like Palestinians and Russians)
no need for facts, no need for context, no need for history, they are all the same. They are not really human and must be exterminated is the implicit message in the US, and explicit message in Israel.
Don’t forget the cuneiform inscribed stele from Ur that states the Persians will have a nuke in 2 years.
Also corroborated by the Mayan Calendar!
GOP leaders abruptly cancel House vote on Iran war powers, shielding Trump from rebuke
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/house-trump-iran-war-powers
Sadly, this is no surprise and to be expected. The corruption is bipartisan and institutional, the constitution is ignored and the rule of law is openly ridiculed. There is no more checks and balances, no more checks on exec. power. The US is a lawless, rogue regime bent on terrorizing the world, as it flails about in a vain attempt to maintain global “primacy”. Both “sides” of the aisle are openly bribed by the MICIMATT, The Lobby as well as other “eptistemic communities” of oligarchy. The vast majority of the population, no matter D or R, do not approve of the war. This is yet another example where the politricksters tell the voters to f-off. What are the R faithful gonna do? Vote D? Ha ha ha. And vice-versa for the Ds
With their mobile launchers, could Iran launch missiles from the deck of a commercial oil tanker or container ship?
What about torpedoes, drones, mines, etc?
That might extend the range of what’s possible for Iran if even if it means that ship will be sunk in response. Perhaps they could abandon ship before the retaliation happens. Or have manpads on the ship as well to fight any planes that come their way. I don’t know the tech all that well and what’s possible….
Just trying to guess what surprises Iran might have up their sleeve.
during one of the wars on iraq…pretty sure the one during the cheney admin…there was much hysteria about a “scud in a bucket”, a scud missile launcher mounted covertly on some non-descript cargo ship…said ship would sail right into New York Harbor and launch the scud.
never found out if this was mere war-mongering hair on fire or a seriously considered threat.
i grew up all along the texas coast…family were fisher folk…and there are always ships hanging around off shore, waiting to get into whatever port. of course, Coast Guard inspects, etc…still.
It would be pretty crazy if we attack Irans oil infrastructure and they attacked US gulf infrastructure in response. It’s getting to be that type of world where America isn’t wholly immune from that type of a response.
From the US Naval War College five years ago: ”
China’s Container Missile Deployments Could Violate the Law of Naval Warfare.”
So the Naval Warfare Police will activate their lights and sirens, cuff the perps and toss them into Naval Warfare Jail until they are tried and convicted in Naval Warfare Court and sentenced to Naval Warfare Prison? ;-)
I believe I can tl;dr the article, like many others, to “if it can hurt us, it’s illegal; if we do it to others, it’s just sharp strategy.”
The US War College among its other missions teaches the ruling class and their minions how to lie “their” democracy into submission. You know all those pro-labor or critical subreddits that are spammed to destruction and paved over with DNC machine crying? Your proverbial tax dollars at work, playing out their little online Ledeen Doctrine.
Using an innocent looking ship to launch a torpedo that would destroy or damage the screws/rudder of a carrier would also damage the drive shape, bending that puppy 1/4 ” would likely cause vibration severe enough to damage the reduction gear.
Towing a supercarrier back to the continental US would be a nightmare and replacing the driveshaft would take years and cost more than the Trump family has grifted so far this year.
Not many US deaths would be caused but the humiliation would be immense.
“[…] replacing the driveshaft would take years and cost more than the Trump family has grifted so far this year.”
The damaged carrier would also occupy a berth for years, at a time when there is a dearth of shipbuilding facilities to maintain existing vessels and build new ones.
There’s precedent for this. A bent shaft from a torpedo hit (the first hit, at that) doomed the battleship Prince of Wales in 1941. The hit was bad enough but the shaft, turning at full speed, IIRC disassembled the port side power plant and most of the watertight integrity from the stern all the way to the boiler rooms forward of the funnels. The anti- aircraft systems were electrical, leaving the ship defenseless on the port side, which is where the G2 and G3 torpedo planes came in for the kill.
Replacing line shafting is something we are prepared to do. Though I’m not sure DD4 at Pearl can hold the largest CVNs so they would have to be towed back to Bremerton if not. The T-ATS-6 Navajo class has CVN towing requirement with 175 ton bollard pull capability. Lead group of T-ATF ships is being constructed by Bollinger Shipyards in Houma, LA with Austal in Mobile, AL having a contract for additional vessels.
In my day we had to emergency dock Enterprise due to hull damage. Back then we had the dock at Hunters Point available and were in and out in a couple of weeks. Of course, that didn’t involve removing a large piece of machinery. I’m not sure if the design plans had a removal route for an MRG set. I’m assuming individual gear elements would be removed.
We did have to replace a line shaft in the cruiser Long Beach in an emergency due to a wiped line shaft bearing. Put in Pearl DD4 in two days and had replacement war reserve shaft flown out from the west coast.
Also had to replace a screw in IIRC cruiser Warden. We do that water-borne by salvage divers. Screw fit in a C-5A which we took over to Subic in the Philippines for the job.
Fascinating! Thank you for the anecdotes.
China has had these at least since last year, hopefully they have supplied Iran with the tech or actual ships.
https://www.twz.com/sea/chinese-cargo-ship-packed-full-of-modular-missile-launchers-emerges
https://www.thedefensenews.com/Images-Reveal-Chinese-Container-Ship-Converted-Into-Modular-Missile-Platform/
If USreal doesn’t use nukes on Iran, I would expect them to use chemical or biological weapons…
Especially biological… since there are Ebola headlines… drop a few “Ebola bombs” in populated areas and be able to claim “plausible deniability” (a phrase I learned during the Slick Willy years).
Izzys are a perpetual user of chemical weapons with white phosphorous. Although not strictly ‘illegal’, the way they use them are against 2 International conventions.
from wiki:
Article 1 of Protocol III of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons defines an incendiary weapon as “any weapon or munition which is primarily designed to set fire to objects or to cause burn injury to persons through the action of flame, heat, or combination thereof, produced by a chemical reaction of a substance delivered on the target”. Article 2 of the same protocol prohibits the deliberate use of incendiary weapons against civilian targets (already forbidden by the Geneva Conventions), the use of air-delivered incendiary weapons against military targets in civilian areas, and the general use of other types of incendiary weapons against military targets located within “concentrations of civilians” without taking all possible means to minimize casualties. Incendiary phosphorus bombs may also not be used near civilians in a way that can lead to indiscriminate civilian casualties
Former army officer here: White phosphorus munitions are NOT considered chemical weapons under Article I. They are legal to use under the laws of war, same as black powder, TNT, nitrocellulose, picric acid, etc. which are also not considered to be chemical weapons. The incendiary property of WP is not considered a primary effect- the smoke is. Yes, WP is used as an incendiary but it is a legal munition as that effect is secondary or tertiary just like the other explosives I listed above.
Stop this nonsense about it being an illegal or banned munition- it isn’t.
What is illegal is targeting civilians and collective punishment, and I completely agree that WP use against civilians is especially cruel. The nature of the weapon used is not what’s illegal, as targeting civilians would be just as illegal if a soldier used a pointed stick instead of a WP bomb.
In my professional judgement as an artilleryman, having used it myself, a WP ban is ridiculous as it is incredibly useful in combat- it’s explosive, firey, and densely smoky.
stepdad’s Sargent from vietnam(the guy who shot the dude who shot stepdad in the back and dragged stepdad out) had willy-pete burns all over him.
he said it was friendly fire, but it didnt look all that friendly, to me.
when our boys were young, and discovering Call of Duty and other such recruiting games, it was those two guys who put an end to all that nonsense about joining the army to go kick some ass.
prolly the best thing either of them ever did for wife and i.
Can it be loaded onto a missile or drone and dispersed in bomblets similar to cluster bombs? Rained on civilian rooftops would it burn houses and thus burn down neighborhoods?
Normal HC smoke is not used in munitions smaller than 75mm. WP is the only smoke option for small munitions. It is or was used in smaller caliber munitions (20mm, 40mm, 60mm, 0,50 cal, etc.) as an incendiary or tracer. I have never seen a WP cluster munition, but I see no manufacturing reason that would prohibit making such a device. I don’t see the point- WP is what it is. The US had (this was 1990s, so dated info) a WP grenade with a burst radius larger than the distance a soldier could throw it. It was the size of a 16oz soda bottle, but much heavier. Use at your own risk i suppose, but ideal for buildings and bunkers.
WP will burn like crazy, so whatever it touches it has a good chance to either cook or ignite. Interestingly, despite training with WP on a routine basis, I never saw a forest/brush/prairie fire start from WP. Flares and starshells- yes, but not WP. WP did burn the hell out of vehicles, but we also managed that with HE on occasion. The upholstery in a car or truck is especially flammable.
“Shake and bake” is a specific call for fire that uses HE to blast a site to rubble followed by WP to ignite the rubble and obscure the area. For the most part, WP allocations to a mortar platoon or artillery battery are limited and used for smoke. I can’t speak for IDF but they seem to use a lot of the stuff. On civilians.
While the Iran v. US conflict is semi frozen, Israel is not being bombed by Iran and is free to deal with Hezbollah. If or when Hezbollah is dealt with its back to bombing Iran.
Israel is disarming Hezbollah by throwing troops and tanks in the path of FPV drones. Who will run out first?
I already mentioned it, but one should not forget that losses amongst Hezbollah fighters are running quite high. It is a real war, and a war of attrition at that, and at this stage it is unclear to me who would win if Israel could devote its full attention to fighting Hezbollah instead of being also busy with Iran — or Yemen, or Gaza, or…
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Sinks to Lowest Ever Recorded
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-sinks-lowest-ever-11981609
‘A New Level of Corruption’: DHS Bought ICE Warehouses From Trump Cronies For 10x Markup: “Folks very close to the White House… were sitting on properties that were causing them losses every year,” said a journalist tracking the purchases. “The decision was made to buy them at taxpayer expense.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/ice-warehouse-markups
I have admired Iran’s trolling of Trump, it has been genuinely funny and I have a suggestion of how to step it up.
Award Trump a “FAFO” peace prize to go along with his “FIFA” peace prize during the opening ceremonies for the World Cup.
The dedication : “To Donald Trump, the greatest American President since Joe Biden, who has destroyed America’s ability to murder the innocent across the World”
The statue should be hollow and made out of 24 karat gold, the head should accurately depict Trump when he’s nodding off during a press conference, and Grok should be used to show how he looks without clothes except for a fully loaded diaper.
The diaper should be clearly labeled “Made in Israel”.
The statue should be real and delivered to the White House, with the delivery documented by video.
Whoever delivers it is likely to spend the rest of their life in a SuperMax prison if they aren’t shot out of hand. Even so finding a volunteer wouldn’t be hard, Thomas Massie comes to mind…
I thought awhile back that the DT was more akin to the Roman Emperor Commodus, but now he is becoming more like Nero.
A giant golden statue of the mad emperor is quite fitting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossus_of_Nero
And his “ballroom” is a slightly scaled down version of the Domus Aurea
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domus_Aurea
Nero was also accused of stealing a huge amount of land and public wealth.
History rhymes very well, one of the resident songwriters here on NC could
As for acquiring nukes recall:
emphasis added
fwiw—“AI” summary accords with memory
PS artillery nukes could be “hot-wired”—not crypto secured
Tulsi Gabbard resigns as Director of National Intelligence
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/gabbard-resigns-trumps-national-intelligence-director-fox-news-digital-reports-2026-05-22/
wonder if there was a polymarket bet to make on how long she’d last – was wondering how long she would take it – couldn’t hold down the bile –
According to the Iranian Foreign Service both Qatar and Pakistan are in Iran this weekend for talks. Iran seems to be happy with a long negotiation process while sending about 30 ships a day out of the Straight
Will any of those ships ever come back, or new ships ever come in under present conditions ? How long can Hezbollah be strung out to dry without substantive help ? How porous are Southern Iraq and Syria to Iranian Special Forces supplying and helping Hezbollah ?
Fog of War
Qatari negotiating team in Tehran to try to help secure US-Iran deal to end war, says source
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/qatari-negotiating-team-tehran-help-secure-us-iran-deal-end-war-says-source-2026-05-22/
Alberta voter data found on website of US company linked to Centurion Project
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/05/20/investigations/alberta-voter-data-10x-votes-centurion-project
Protests at new US consulate after Trump envoy says time for US ‘to put its footprint back’ on Greenland
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/21/greenland-trump-us-envoy-jeff-landry-visit
ICE Is Quietly Rolling Out a $55 Billion Crematorium Network
https://open.substack.com/pub/wendy664/p/ice-is-quietly-rolling-out-a-55-billion
what???
Vice Admiral Robert Harward (ret.) wears a mask on Fox News
https://www.msn.com/en-in/politics/government/did-robert-harward-wear-face-mask-on-fox-news-clarification-issued-as-retired-vice-admiral-returns/ar-AA23QpTo
The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, where Harward serves as a national security expert, also rejected the theory. JINSA communications director Blake Johnson said the organization had “a good laugh over it” but confirmed it “was not a ‘mask.”
Here’s a better look from a moving image, close up:
https://www.reddit.com/r/HighStrangeness/comments/1tk12jh/folks_i_mean_this_in_the_least_conspiratorial_way/
and here is a video of Robert Harward one month ago on Fox News:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0iTrBxxTdo
I looked him up. He’s a real person, a retired vice admiral, but the shape of his head is very different one month ago compared to today.
I believe that Trump’s cognitive decline has a good deal to do with what the USA will do next.
He seems . at times, to believe that he was “Appointed y Almighty Providence to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”.
This feeds into his need to be seen as Dominant in every situation, because those who defy HIS will are also DEFYING GOD”S WILL!.
Hoo Boy.
And as far as invading Cuba, WTAF?