[This Iran war post launched before complete because scheduled commitments. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
I would be delighted to be proven wrong about there being no negotiated settlement to the Iran conflict. But Trump capitulating was not on my dance card (nor among others, that of escalation expert Robert Pape). But initial accounts from Aljazeera and the New York Times differed on key details, and now Iran’s Fars News agency has denied claims about the status of the Strait of Hormuz made in Trump’s Truth Social announcement. Trump said it would fully reopen while Iran maintains it will stay under its control.
So will this tentative deal last much longer than the predictable Tuesday morning US markets pop? Recall that the big spanner of the Trump’s effort to cinch a Ukraine peace deal was that Ukraine had agency and did not go along. The Times of Israel reports that Netanyahu was frozen out of the talks and another subhead on the landing page reports, “Israel said to see emerging deal as ‘very big problem'”
We’ll first turn to the apparent disconnect between the two sides over what the agreement amounts to. Obviously it can founder on that alone. This has already happened twice before with Trump on Iran. Recall he famously said he agreed with Iran’s initial 10 point outline of terms as a basis for negotiation, then immediately walked that back when he understood what they contained. Later,
Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, which Iran had accepted, and then immediately blew that up by imposing the US blockade, which is an act of war.
And while you were busy watching the latest episode of the Iran war drama….from Simplicius, Oreshnik Shocks Ukrainian Capital: Kiev on Fire After Largest Ballistic Attack of War.
Keep in mind we are in the fog of misinformation phase. First to the Trump announcement:
Notice there are already glaring problems. First, Trump depicts the listed countries, including Turkiye, Pakistan, and Jordan as parties to the deal, meaning signatories. That can’t be right. Plus multiparty deals are extremely time-consuming to consummate. Second, Israel is clearly NOT a party to the deal. So how can this possibly get done? Iran has insisted and will continue to insist on a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, which includes Lebanon. Trump is not even pretending he has Israel’s participation or consent.
The US could not get Ukraine to bend to its wishes. Think Trump can get the much more politically and media-connected Israel to do so? Recall additionally that some YouTubers are saying (I confess to not independently verifying) that Israel now has more missiles in theater than the US. And it can also engage in terrorism, likely assassinating more key Iranian figures.
Even the New York Times is acknowledging the outtrade on its landing page:
Note that Iran is disputing the only substantive detail in the Trump, that the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened.” Aljazeera’s live feed had had an entry describing how the Iranian news agency Fars said otherwise; tellingly that update has vanished. Google Translate makes a hash of the Fars site so I am forced to rely on other accounts (and there are many), like:
BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's claim that Hormuz "will be opened" as part of a "largely negotiated" agreement he just posted on Truth Social, saying Trump's claim is "far from the truth" and that Hormuz "will remain under Iranian management" with Iran retaining exclusive…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 23, 2026
Similarly, from Larry Johnson in Peace is at Hand? Don’t Hold Your Breath (emphasis his):
The Iranians, however, have a different take: Trump’s claim about the Strait of Hormuz returning to its previous state is not true. According to Fars, contrary to Trump’s recent claim on the social network Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous condition and preparations are underway to sign an agreement, Fars reporter’s follow-ups show that this claim is also far from reality.
According to the latest exchanged text, if a possible agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will still be under Iran’s management. Although Iran has agreed to allow the number of passing ships to return to the pre-war level, this does not mean “free passage” to the pre-war situation in any way. Accordingly, the management of the strait, determining the route, time, manner of passage, and issuing permits will remain exclusively under the control and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, Trump’s claim in this regard is incomplete and inconsistent with reality.
It is also worth mentioning that Trump had previously announced negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program as one of the main and inseparable conditions of any agreement. However, no commitment has been made by Iran, and the nuclear issue has not been discussed at this stage.
Iran is also rejecting rumors that it has made commitments with respect to its enriched uranium. This makes sense because Iran has consistently insisted on sequencing, as in resolving the hot war and Strait of Hormuz issues first, then turning to nuclear issues. I cannot find the referenced story on the English language version of the Tasnim site, but I assume it to be accurate:
BREAKING: Iran rejects the new NYT/US officials claim that Iran "agreed" to hand over its highly enriched uranium and suspend enrichment above 3.6% for 10 years as part of Trump's announced "largely negotiated agreement," calling these reports "completely false," and confirms…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 24, 2026
A Tasnim English language article has since gone live and makes further corrections to Anglosphere rumors in No MoU Possible without Release of Iran’s Frozen Assets:
An informed source said that while the US has consistently obstructed the negotiations and changed its positions, Iran has emphasized that no understanding will be reached without the release of a specified portion of Iran’s frozen assets in the initial step.
The informed source told Tasnim on Sunday that while the Americans have consistently obstructed the negotiations and changed their positions, Iran has made it clear that no agreement will be reached without the release of a specified portion of its frozen assets in the very first step and a clear mechanism for the continued guaranteed release of all frozen assets.
The source noted that the issue has been conveyed to the Pakistani mediator and to a number of regional countries involved in mediation efforts.
According to the source, despite prior arrangements reached through the Pakistani mediator and with the mediation of some regional countries, the Americans are now obstructing the process. However, he said, Iran has stated that it will not retreat from its red lines.
As this reads, Iran is raising the bar to reaching a resolution even higher. It wants some frozen assets back BEFORE making any commitments whatsoever.
More sightings of Iran throat-clearing:
BREAKING: Iran has rejected reports claiming Tehran agreed to transfer its highly enriched uranium abroad or suspend enrichment above 3.6% for a decade, with sources telling Tasnim that such claims are “completely false.”
According to the report, Iranian officials insist current…
— The Iranian Letter (@TheIranianzg3z) May 24, 2026
BREAKING: Iran says potential memorandum of understanding includes end of war on all fronts, reports Tasnim news agency
🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/YTIFRpJQEY pic.twitter.com/wuhiyuLWM6
— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 24, 2026
Note above “potential memorandum of understanding”. That means terms are NOT agreed.
In keeping, the current Aljazeera live feed landing page shows that any “deal” is much less far along than Trump suggests:
A recap of recent developments
- United States President Donald Trump has said that a Memorandum of Understanding in ceasefire talks to end the US-Israel war with Iran “has been largely negotiated”.
- Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, following a call with Trump and a group of other Middle Eastern leaders, said talks between Iran and the US could take place “very soon.”
- Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir concluded a short but “highly productive” visit to Iran on Saturday, during which “encouraging progress” was made.
- Iran is focusing the negotiations on ending the war “on all fronts including Lebanon” and refuses to discuss its nuclear programme, the Foreign Ministry says.
- Israel continues to launch air strikes on southern Lebanon after killing at least 3,123 people since March 2 despite an ongoing ceasefire and peace negotiations.
NO1 confirms this assessment. From its daily summary:
Iran-US “deal” is a Schrödinger’s agreement — Trump announced a deal is “largely negotiated” with Hormuz reopening. Iran’s Fars News says Trump’s posts are “primarily for promotional purposes and media consumption” and that US officials told Iran to “ignore” them. Iran rejects claims it agreed to hand over enriched uranium or suspend enrichment above 3.6%. Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a directive that uranium “must not leave the country”. Kobeissi Letter published expected terms: 60-day ceasefire extension, gradual Hormuz reopening, sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets. But Iran says Hormuz remains under Iran’s management with tolls. No single point of agreement confirmed by both sides. Sources: 15+ accounts. Confidence: HIGH that negotiations are happening, LOW that any deal is imminent.
And US hawks are in revolt even based on the more US-favorable terms that Trump presented. From The Hill in GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham, Roger Wicker blast reports of 60-day ceasefire deal with Iran:
Key Senate Republicans are raising concerns about a reported peace deal being negotiated with Iran, arguing it would be a disaster for the United States that would make meaningless the war launched by President Trump nearly three months ago.
“The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, wrote in a post on social platform X.
He said the effects of the joint military operation between the U.S. and Israel titled “Operation Epic Fury” would “be for naught” if the deal as he understood it went forward.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close ally of President Trump who for years has pushed for U.S. military action against the Iranian regime, said a premature deal could fundamentally shift the balance of power in the Middle East in Iran’s favor.
“If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution,” Graham wrote Saturday in a post on X.
The South Carolina Republican added that such a perception would become a “nightmare for Israel” over time, questioning the rationale behind the war entirely.
He also noted his skepticism that Iran could be denied the ability to threaten global oil supply by blocking the Strait of Hormuz again in the future.
“I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability,” he wrote, adding: “It is important we get this right.”
This tweet had 3 million views on a Saturday night on a holiday weekend:
The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world.
Not remotely America First. It’s straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out…
— Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo) May 23, 2026
A hot take from shipping maven Sal Mercogliano with Mario Nawfal says that even if there is an agreement soon, it will be a very long time before shipping gets back to normal, and even more so if Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz as it insists.
Key points from a lightly cleaned up machine transcript:
Mercogliano: Can they get the Strait open? But the the caveat there is Iranian control of it.
Obviously with the creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority which gives them oversight over the Strait do does this recognize them formally having that oversight? We know that the Gulf states in particularly were very concerned about that. They did not want Iran to have this. At the same time, however, what we see is there are tons of tankers, especially the very large crude carriers sitting outside the Persian Gulf right now. They have not displaced as much as many people think…That is one that if the US agrees to it is really shocking to me because that’s giving them de facto oversight the Iranians over that Strait and that means Iran, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar are really going to be at the mercy of what Iran wants to do especially if they extract that toll money….
Because the fear here, Mario, I would tell you is if this agreement goes into place, let’s say this does get agreed exactly as it is, Iran does the toll. Does shipping come back the way it was pre-February 28th?
Because that’s the big question because what we’ve seen is shipping hasn’t returned into the Red Sea since the initial attacks back in 2023. And the large container carriers, a lot of the, you know, the higher value ships still take that alternative route. Are the ships going to come back? They need that security issue. One of the things that the US found out was they put together this war risk insurance policy, but the war risk in itself isn’t enough to get ships to go through without security.
And what they what the shipping companies want is security. They want to know the Iranians are not going to attack them, that they’re not going to hit them, that the ships can go through and they’ll pay a higher war risk.
They’ll pay the money. That’s not the issue. What they want is the security that they’re not going to lose a ship for the next 20 years of revenue. That’s the concern they have.We haven’t seen the massive reall allocation of of the the oil tankers on those long runs. We’ve seen more going to the United States doing that Cape of Good Hope run, but a lot of them are sitting out there waiting for this opening to take place….
What we’ve seen happen even recently over the past week is vessels make movement toward the Strait get turned around again. Uh it’s not a good flow. I mean, we’re just seeing the kind of start starts and stops all the time here. in the movement of shipping through this. What everybody wants is dependability. They need to be able to flow goods and know that their ships can both come in and come out.
We’re seeing ships come out. We’re seeing that the Iranians are letting ships come out. The question is, can you get ships going in and then turning around and coming out on a scheduled basis? And I think this is the fundamental flaw here with the US and the Iranians, this agreement, because the US isn’t going to pull off on their blockade until they know that the Strait is open….
Nawfal: There was a report I can’t remember what shipping company said even if the Strait of Hormuz is open and there’s a deal reached and Iran by the way said they’re happy that they want to charge a fee but they’re happy to open it up to the same volume of ships as before. Um it would take it by the end of the year the Strait of Hormuz will only be at 40% capacity.
I hate to seem reflexively cynical but at a minimum, the baked-in very large risk asset rallies and oil price plunge when markets open will be very profitable to Trump and his cronies. It would also greatly cheer the bond market, which were going haywire. Odds greatly favored contagion sooner or later to US equities.
Larry Johnson pointed out that the Hajj starts this year on May 25 and it would arouse ire across the Muslim war for the US and Israel to attack Iran then. But the Hajj ends May 30. Iran is already rejecting what is at best a prematurely-announced set of terms. Trump could use that to again demonize Iran and set up a new attack, with the deal pretense a device for temporizing to get past the Hajj and reset wobbly markets at much lower price points.
It would be better if I were wrong. But Israel allies and US warmongers are already depicting the rumored terms as an unacceptable US capitulation, even as Iran is nixing them as incorrectly US favorable on the two critical issues, the Strait of Hormuz and the status of Iran’s enriched uranium.
It would be better if I were wrong but this “deal” already looks to be going pear-shaped. Yours truly is not alone in that view:
Iran shut down their airspace and Trump backed down from the assault. For now. But I just don’t see how the Iran war won’t restart.
If im reading the tea leaves right war is inevitable. pic.twitter.com/NbTUAh2oSM
— Syrian Girl (@Partisangirl) May 23, 2026
And if Trump really were to knuckle under to Iran, I doubt he survives and I don’t mean politically.1 As Larry Wilkerson has said repeatedly with considerable alarm, Trump has packed the US military full of apocalypse seeking Evangelical nutters. Assassination is a core competence of Mossad. Colonel Macgregor has said contrary to his public image, Vance is actually more of a hawk than Trump. And even if not, a suspicious-looking Trump death could produce a Damascene conversion.
Mind you, the US has to back down at some point due to exhausting its means to wage a hot war. But the prevalent view (as articulated among others by Daniel Davis, based on gossip from his contacts) was that Trump wanted to give one more face-saving kick to Iran on the way out. That path is fraught since Iran will not allow itself to get a “mowing the lawn” treatment, with the US and Israel coming back every so often to try to weaken Iran. They need the US to be seen as defeated so it won’t try again. So it remains hard to see how it is possible to devise a deal that would work for Iran that is short of a visible US capitulation.
Done for today! I really hope I can get by with no or a thin post tomorrow, because I suspect we’ll have a lot more froth than substance in the next 24 hours.
____
1 There was a fresh attack at a White House checkpoint mere hours ago but the timing seems too close to the deal announcement to be related.
Let’s see what happens. With Trump anything is possible. He is willing to do things no normal politician would do. Including a surrender-light, as long as it doesn’t look that way and makes him look weak. Even throwing Israel and Bibi under the bus isn’t impossible.
If the Iranians are smart they will offer a deal that gives a few cosmetic concessions for Trump while keeping their Hormuz tollbooth and getting rid of the sanctions.
The way the warhawks are reacting makes me think that some kind of US-Iran deal might be possible.
If I was in the Cuban government, I would really be worried about a potential deal. After such a deal Trump is likely to make people forget about Iran by going to Cuba.
There’s a clear pattern of Trump announcing a not-actually-existing deal to manipulate Mr. Market.
This is the same pattern, it is just that this time the non-existent deal includes some elements that seem unacceptable to the war hawks. That adds the appearance of versimilitude, but doesn’t change the lack of direct negotiations, Iranian’s own requirements, Trump’s inability to restrain Israel, etc
sure Trump may be willing to throw Bibi under the bus, but is “Sampson option” willing to be thrown under the bus? The Sampson option here includes terminating the US president, by say releasing Epstein video of him *&-*& a young girl (could be AI) and having Israel-aligned media (i.e. all MSM) play it non-stop while Israeli-aligned politicians (virtually all) denounce him as (*^&^& monster who must be stopped.
Interesting thought, it might mollify Rubio.
I can see Iran giving up 60% enrichment but not 20% that is used for medical isotopes. And probably they’d only give it to Russia, with agreement they get it back if sanctions return.
But maybe another round of war is beneficial to Iran/hezbollah in spite of the damage to themselves, hit israel/uae/us bases again and maybe continuing a bit after us says time to stop. Lack of standoff maybe means high altitude bombing over Iran, if they take down a couple b1’s it might reduce the urge to try again in a few years.
20% is also the preferred fuel for the emerging generation of smaller nukes that everybody is so excited about. Iran has an excellent excuse for keeping it.
Cuba does look like an interesting distraction, but? There is no oil to steal, just a country that’s been strangled for the last 60 years. So they make Marco presidente and the Mafia moves back in. What do they do, if a lot of Cubans want to move to Miami? It looks a lot more complicated than just another photo op.
We but up all their vintage cars and send them a bunch of 20 year old Nissans?
I would disagree, with trump nothing is possible outside his personal fantasies and the unreflective demands of his masters.
He will, with his last diaper, make everything nothing.
A legacy of sorts
Is there any indication that Trump has consulted Iran at all on this? Or is it another example of the US side negotiating with itself? There were no Iranian leaders in that long list of names he dropped on Truth Social.
Plenty of mainstream evidence claiming both sides have a memorandum in their hands. Contradictory evidence who wrote the memo. Absolutely no evidence at all that Iran has either agreed to, or even has a memorandum listing, some of Trump’s more maximalist claims. So same old, same old here.
Why on earth would he talk to them?
Nothing they’ll say will help him with the war, the markets, or Israel.
The more layers of misdirection he can keep between himself and actual events, the more opportunities he creates for himself to “win” against someone, anyone.
It does have that “negotiating amongst just our side, deciding what to present to Iran” feel, doesn’t it?
…Iran’s Fars News agency has denied claims about the status of the Strait of Hormuz made in Trump’s Truth Social announcement. Trump said it would fully reopen while Iran maintains it will stay under US control.
Trump: NO! NO, NO, NO, NO, NO–THAT WAS NOT THE DEAL!!! IRAN SAID THEY WOULD KEEP THE STRAIT AND THIS ISN’T PART OF THE DEAL! IRAN MUST KEEP THE STRAIT BECAUSE WE DON’T WANT IT AND OUR TAX-PAYERS DON’T WANT IT OUR FRIENDS IN THE GULF DON’T WANT IT AND EVEN ISRAEL DOESN’T WANT IT! IRAN MUST HONOR ITS AGREEMENT OR THEY WILL BE IN BIG, BIG TROUBLE, TROUBLE SO BIG NO ONE HAS EVER SEEN TROUBLE LIKE IT EVER BEFORE!!!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
US attacked Iran without provocation. Now the US has depleted its arsenal and summer heat has arrived so it wants a pause. Iran agreeing to a pause overwhelmingly benefits the US.
In return, at a minimum Iran should demand the immediate return of all of its frozen/seized funds worldwide (in excess of about $80 billion). This costs nothing. It is Iran’s own money.
However any promise of future return of the money in phases or in a reconstruction fund will NEVER actually occur and is meaningless. This is the US, Israel and Donald Trump after all.
A term providing for immediate return of Iran’s own funds in any agreement is most important from Iran’s perspective because it would allow them to recover and prepare for the next attack.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/exclusive–iran–us-to-finalize-framework-understanding-via
Proposed MOU apparently includes release of $12 billion in frozen assets. This is described as half of the total, though published estimates say the total is $100-120 billion.
See, e.g., https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/iran-s-100-billion-frozen-assets-what-they-are-where-they-re-held-and-why-they-matter-now/ar-AA20XGj7
So all that Iran would receive in return for giving up its strategic advantage over the US and saving the world economy is a temporary one-month “right” to sell its oil and the return of $12 billion of its own money.
That’s all they get. Everything else is promises and happy talk from confirmed con artists. Iran will probably never receive the $12 billion and certainly will never receive a penny more then that. The oil sanctions will be reimposed on day 31. It’s a terrible deal.
Most of the frozen funds cannot be released without Congress unwinding earlier legislation:
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12452
I would hazard that the $25 billion Iran has asked for out of an estimated $100+ billion is the only part that can be freed without Trump making the stipulated certifications, which he can’t do if Iran is still besties with Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, the Iraqi militias, and Hamas (which Iran is not giving up) and still has any nuclear enrichment (which Iran is also not giving up).
The E-3 (UK, France, and Germany) also triggered the JCOPA snapback, which Russia and China have deemed to be illegal (via having been done in a procedurally improper way) and are thus ignoring. But the snapback means any assets frozen by the E-3 are not going anywhere.
This is one of those finance/legal things where I’m sure there are lots of advanced details I don’t know.
But I’ve always wondered with Iranian / Russian asset freezes (and also Iraq’s oil money): what’s to stop a 3rd party from sort of “buying out” the claim like a collections agency? Probably China would be the only one with the funds & leverage to do it (or maybe lead a consortium of countries).
But what’s to stop say Iraq from transferring their frozen asset claims to China in exchange for deposits in Chinese banks, probably minus a premium? Then China could use its leverage to squeeze the money, directly in court or indirectly by policy, from the original hostage/escrow countries.
It is possible–equally, countries can provide a no-interest “loan” that is not repayable until the US refunds the money. It is also, I suppose, possible that Iran simply refuses to let any oil pass until Congress actually passes a bill that allows the original money to be paid (the screaming and crying that ensues would be really fun to watch…)
However, my guess is that both sides could probably agree if they wanted to that there would be an additional fee/tax/whatever on the oil barrels flowing through to cover the unpaid amount that is owed to Iran. I don’t know how much is actually outstanding, but at ~20m barrels per day, it would be recovered in a year or two, I think.
As an aside, I have seen nothing in the leaked “negotiation” terms about reparations. I wonder if it will disappear as a point.
I beg to differ. Iran’s main weapon against the US is its economic hammer (the Strait of Hormuz closed). It’s clear the Trump admin is betting Iran folds (Hah!) before the SPR is empty (July-ish) or even sooner, given US exuberant and irrational confidence – it’s exporting hydrocarbons.
1. Additionally, Iranian missile/drone factories are operating at >>100% capacity, producing the latest-generation missiles. US missile factories that were crawling are now slinking (no rare earths). Without rare earths, the US gets weaker (relative to Iran) with time, assuming the US doesn’t ship some munitions to the Ukraine theater.
2. Allows Iran to help Iraq install a mosaic defense and deeply buried missile silos.
3. Integration of recent air defenses from Russia/China takes more than a few weeks.
4. Iran knows how to fight in the summer heat, is not the same as Iran desiring to fight during the summer.
5. A ground invasion provides an opportunity to send a wave of bodybags to the US – Iran seems averse to sinking US naval ships (Remember the Maine!), but ground invasion waits for the fall at this point, probably.
———- very glad for this light update and that the update is light ——–
First para, last sentence seems inconsistent: Trump said it would fully reopen while Iran maintains it will stay under US control.
Perhaps should read: Trump said it would fully reopen while Iran maintains it will stay under Iran’s control.
I can’t imagine this continuing thru summer and until it’s cool enough for land invasion. Your guess is spr empty end July. Imo more likely a hot few weeks, us gets at best a fig leaf on enrichment, and goes home no later than 7/4, trump declaring victory as oil rockets on scarcity and economy/market collapse.
I’m a little more optimistic on Hormuz. I think as many as 30 ships/day (I assume loaded) have slipped thru, granted some that were bottled up just leaving, but that;s with a (very leaky) us blockade. Meanwhile Saudi can/is pumping 5-7mmb/d to Red Sea, so that’s potentially 50% total now.
I assume Britain will be desperate end summer, and would pressure Lloyd’s/re-insurers to insure ships, maybe helping with gov guarantees. Granted uae might be unable to pump even their 2.5mmb/d quota by then, and others might also be reduced a bit from war damage, but 40% end year seem pretty pessimistic to me.
I can’t imagine either, but history is replete with bad decisions that end empires, and I think the US would like a four-month pause and another go. Remember, Bibi has the goods. Can Trump stand up to Israel (and remain politically alive)?
As Yves has pointed out, it’s not the lack of government guarantees keeping the Straits closed. The US tried those guarantees with NO takers. It’s the risk (not risk insurance).
This is a highly interconnected nonlinear polycrisis – planting season was missed, helium isn’t returning any time soon (years) aluminum is a problem, Naptha, Sulfuric acid, and the US is sitting on a massive AI bubble (that needs all those things and more, like Gulf capital).
If one approached the hurricane damage to New Orleans you would never arrive at what happened in that much simpler polycrisis. And Bush Jr, as terrible a leader as he was, was heads better at planning – the current lot would screw up a piss-up in a pub, much less resolving a polycrisis without a very very hard (Hoover level) crash.
On top of which is a comprehensive set of institutional failures across the west, where “market state” modifications to institutional plumbing over the last fifty years have turned everything the Federal government or EU/NATO touches, from elections to medical research to transportation to education, into a grift above reform because the system can only understand signals taking the form of cash payments.
To change anything, the whole rotten system needs to keel over or implode.
Maybe by end of summer…
The shortfalls will not be evenly distributed. An Iranian enforced embargo against the aggressor nations will force Trump’s hand.
Not one drop.
Scare in the weekend, sell early Monday, TACO Tuesday, buy again at low price. Wash, rinse and repeat.
The Haji begins Monday.
If Team Trump attacks this week they will succeed in uniting the entire Muslim world against the United States, as by the will of Allah, it is a time for peace.
Of course, Bibi may go rogue…
>If Team Trump attacks this week they will succeed in uniting the entire Muslim world against the United States, as by the will of Allah, it is a time for peace.
And remembered for centuries.
What happens if Bibi and some of the Neocons in Trump’s ear tell him that the time of the Haj is the perfect time to attack because they will not be expecting it. Like how they attacked during Ramadan. Or maybe even stage a false flag attack on the pilgrims at Mecca. After all, what could possibly go wrong?
Or maybe even stage a false flag attack on the pilgrims at Mecca.
Tough to do – I can’t imagine that even the most Persianopathic Muslims would believe that Iran would attack pilgrims at Mecca and cheer on a US/Israeli “retaliation.” But with modern MSM spin, I suppose anything’s possible.
How can an agreement work if it does not bind Israel?
Israeli leaders over many years have been emphatic that they, and only they, must be in control of their military (they call it “defense,” and is the main barrier to Israel being a real US ally under a mutual defense pact with a leadership officered by the US).
Iran cannot be secure under any agreement that does not operationally preclude Israeli aggression (aka “mowing the lawn”). So this just seems to be Trumpian whitewash as the Iranians play him.
Israel won’t agree, but without us doing the heavy lifting can’t attack iran, they’ll be reduced to terror attacks. Plus Imo us withdrawal will be a tectonic movement among the Arab/turkish plates, Iran would be the regional power. For example, israel needs Jordan cooperation to keep weapons from flowing into the West Bank – Jordan is home to several million Palestinians/palestinian descendents. Ive read a million Israelis have left, maybe including a number critical to their economy; another wave many more might leave, particularly after flights normalize again. Of course, the entitled religious layabouts will still expect a free ride.
Not clear to me israel can survive long term, especially with the loss of us support that is bound to come if us goes into recession/market crash that will be blamed on Israel.
T-BONE = Trump Backs Out Nearly Everytime
All done! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh this page and re-skim
Also note the New York Times article to which the Iranians have vigorously objected is still archived, so if anyone here would be so good as to quote the key sections, that would be very much appreciated.
It this it?
One key element of the proposed agreement between Iran and the United States is an apparent commitment by Tehran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to two U.S. officials.
White House officials did not return requests for comment. President Trump said on Saturday that the United States was close to reaching an agreement with Iran toward ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But he provided no details, and it was not clear what hurdles might remain to closing a deal.
U.S. officials said that the proposal did not settle the issue of precisely how Iran would give up its stockpile, putting off the details for a coming round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
But a general statement that Iran will commit to doing so, a longtime goal of the United States, is critical to the deal — especially if the overall agreement is greeted with skepticism by Republicans on Capitol Hill.
Iran has made no public statements on the agreement that Mr. Trump announced.
This is a copy of the first part of the article to which I thought you were referring. I have the entire article if you need more.
“Trump Says Peace Deal Is Near”
President Trump said the United States and Iran had “largely negotiated” an agreement, but American and Iranian officials described the terms differently.
Published May 23, 2026
Updated May 24, 2026, 5:49 a.m. ET
Aaron BoxermanTyler PagerFarnaz Fassihi and Julian E. Barnes
Here’s the latest.
President Trump said in a social media post on Saturday, without elaborating, that the United States was close to reaching an agreement with Iran toward ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
There was no formal response from Iran. But three Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said that Tehran had agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would stop the fighting on all fronts and reopen the strait.
Mr. Trump provided few details about the preliminary agreement, which he said was “largely negotiated.” It was unclear whether the latest negotiations would succeed in extending the current cease-fire or break down over sticking points that have kept the war unresolved for months.
In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said he had spoken by phone with several Arab leaders about a memorandum of understanding “pertaining to PEACE.” He said the agreement was “subject to finalization” by the United States, Iran and other countries.
“Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” he wrote.
As of Saturday night, it remained unclear exactly what Mr. Trump and Iran had agreed to — or if they had agreed to much at all.
Earlier Saturday, Esmail Baghaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, had said Washington and Tehran were in the “final stage” of drafting a memorandum of understanding and “may be able to reach a mutually acceptable solution.”
It was not clear whether the proposal the Iranian officials said they had agreed to was the one Mr. Trump referred to in his social media post. In interviews late Saturday, American and Iranian officials described basic elements of the proposed agreement differently.
Two U.S. officials said one key element of the proposed agreement was an apparent commitment by Tehran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a major point of contention. The officials, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the proposal deferred questions about how Iran would do so to a future round of talks on the country’s nuclear program.
But the three senior Iranian officials told The New York Times that the deal said nothing about the fate of Iran’s nuclear program. They said only that all nuclear matters would be negotiated within 30 to 60 days.
The Iranian officials said the memorandum of understanding Tehran had agreed to would stop the fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon; reopen the Strait of Hormuz without any tolls; lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iran; and release $25 billion in Iranian assets frozen overseas.
Mr. Trump’s announcement followed a wave of last-ditch diplomatic efforts to stave off a return to full-scale war.
The United States, Israel and Iran agreed to a cease-fire in early April after more than a month of war. The truce was intended to allow talks on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil and gas shipping that Iran has effectively closed since the war’s early days, driving energy prices worldwide to soar.
Here’s what else we’re covering:
Israeli reaction: Mr. Trump said he had spoken with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, whose country joined the initial attack that started the war in late February. There was no immediate comment from Mr. Netanyahu’s office. It is unclear whether a potential agreement would halt Israel’s ongoing clashes with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon, which rattled the broader cease-fire with Iran when Mr. Trump declared it back in April.
Middle East reaction: Leaders from Arab and Muslim-majority countries told Mr. Trump by phone on Saturday that they supported the latest proposal to end the Iran war and urged him to accept it, according to three Middle Eastern officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
I can’t find any other source confirming this. Axios claims the MOU contains this clause but is clear that said MOU hasn’t yet been agreed. I can’t find any Iranian source saying anything other than that the Strait would continue to be under Iranian “management,” where management sometimes explicitly includes permits for passage but there’s never any reference to tolls, positive or negative.
In one of the Youtubes Max Blumenthahl hinted that Trump was afraid of being assassinated….by Israel! After all they took out JFK (/s or ????).
What Max said outright was that Trump is indeed afraid of being assassinated and that in the famous pre-war meeting Netanyahu convinced Trump that Iran was out to kill him and therefore Iran regime change was necessary. And we mere commenters can suggest that just because Trump is paranoid it doesn’t mean people are not out to get him.
Uneasy lies the head of the reality show host pretending to be president. What a world…..
Israel won’t assassinate trump. They will just ask Ghislane to clear her throat a bit and have her legal team leak something to some news outlet.
Trump will squirm and deny and deflect and lash out. Then he’ll do as he’s told by Bibi.
I imagine Ghislane is more concerned about an early pardon which only Don can supply. It seems they have already made a deal and therefore her prison transfer.
If I were Ms Maxwell, I might feel more safe in that prison.
Like her boyfriend was?
Epstein was an Israeli asset. Israel already has the goods on Trump. They don’t need Maxwell.
Maybe what needs to happen is for Trump to send his critics – and here I am thinking of Lindsey Graham and Mike Pompeo – to the Gulf to see the situation for themselves. The troops there could ensure their safety by making sure that they had full body armour on and a helmet as well. Then take them for a guided tour around a damaged base on foot. And it is happens to be 110 Fahrenheit with 100% humidity, well, I am sure that they would accept the same conditions that they demand of the troops with good grace. And if Lindsey refuses to go, then reactivate the sob’s commission and order him there.
As long as there are plenty of cameras along he might like it. The way to deal with Lindsey is to ignore him.
Somebody tell the MSM.
Even what some perceive as his somewhat swishy personality is doubtless a ploy for attention.
My idea would be to send them on a “reconnaissance” mission across the Gulf so that they could better advise the military on the best targets in the war they constantly monger for. Fit them out and send them across on one of those WWII vintage landing crafts. That would give them some time to think about strategy. Maybe they could land on Kharg Island. And add Roger Wicker to the team. Maybe all that weight Pompeo lost would come in handy as he scrambles to shore – if they made it that far. And I like Carolinian’s camera idea. Maybe a drone could give us visuals of Lindsey’s victorious landing on the enemy territory.
Thanks Rev for triggering one of my favorite fantasies. If only dreams really did come true.
When it comes to war and peace, sanctions and blockades, and when it comes to “negotiating” with it’s
adversaries, the Collective West turns into a rabble of feral school children playing fantasy battles until it slips out of hand beause there’s a dsiagreement about which side is winning and then it turning into completely mindless fighting designed to draw blood.
Trump blows this way and then thataway seeking a war he might just possibly win against some relatively inconsequential enemy, Cuba for instance, but I’ve no doubt, however barbaric his urges, he’ll find a way to lose that.
Meanwhile, Mertz and Starmer plot and scheme to bring about their own humliating defeat in the Ukraine regardless of the their taxpayers’ money and their complete lack of understanding of why they are doing what they are doing whilst their countries’ economies and their people are slowly being crushed by the events Mertz and Starmer have helped to shape – by commission in the Ukraine, and ommission in the Israelis’ Palestinian genocide – when there is much to be done in both Germany and the UK to improve the lives, health, safety and reverse the lowering of the age of mortality of their increaingly restless citizens.
And then there’s Useless ‘n’fonda Lyin’ ceaselessly trying to extend the powers of the EU superstate whilst ensuring it’s foundations are crumbling. Not to mention Kaya Kallas’s contribution to the great peo-political events taking place on her watch by making utterly juvenile speeches demonstrating that a brain transplant from a gnat would improve her intellectual powers by a least a factor of 4 and might make her more capable of understanding the very dangerous world Western “leaders” have created for the rest of us to live and die in
“. . .demonstrating that a brain transplant from a gnat would improve her intellectual powers by a least a factor of 4. . . ”
Coffee spiller supreme! Your phrasing talents are exceptional. Bravo!
Minor edit:
First paragraph, “Iran maintains it will stay under US control.” I think you meant to write, “under their control.” As in, the Strait of Hormuz.
I think I am on team nothingburger in terms of the “agreement.” I doubt it is meant to do much more than spike the markets, although by announcing it on a Saturday of a long holiday weekend, the spin meisters may have made a mistake – there are 48 hours for the truth to seep out, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the markets sell off on Tuesday.
The US in control od Straight of Hurmu sentence confused me as well.
I have no idea what really is happening. Good thing Trump and Nutting-yahoo are ‘on it’.
Their Al Haig Moment: “I am In Control” (visibly shaking and pooping his drawerz)
Come to think of it, that apparently is steady-state for Trump.
Hey , I have been off -line for 5 days- it does a body good. The geopolitical world is still eff’d up, with or without me.
Fixing thanks!
If ending the Iran War 12 times doesn’t win Trump the FAFO peace prize, I don’t know what will.
Something which does not seem to be being addressed often is the readiness of the ground troops which have been mobilized for this conflict. The 2 Marine units don’t appear to have even had a port call yet. The normal max of consecutive time on ship is 45 days. They are sitting at 72 and 67 days respectively. The ships were heading to war so they were undoubtedly packed to the gills as much as was possible. So no we are talking about poor conditions on ship and extreme crowding. Even for the army and special ops units the conditions where they are located are likely to be severely straining them as well. Readiness will be deteriorating by the day. In a worse case scenario this could be a big issue.
Perhaps a giveaway turning point will be noticed when some significant part of the great USA naval force is shown to have left the room.
Or laundry fires start breaking out all over the place.
Wharton Think from Trump: soldiers and Marines are entries on a spreadsheet and graphics on a PowerPoint some Zionist Intern prepped for Suzy to show him after the 3 minute explosion video.
At what point does poor morale turn into active resistance?
And if COVID, hantavirus and other communicable maladies can spread readily on a luxury cruiseliner, I wonder what we’re not hearing about the health status of crews and military passengers on crowded naval vessels?
It was the same type of condition for the troops readying for the D-day landing. They were packed aboard the invasion ships, the weather was foul and they could not remain aboard those ships for too long. And that was only for several days. For those Marines stuck aboard those ships for about 10 weeks now, their moral must be in the toilet.
If peace breaks out, it ruins the evangs chances of a much wished for Armageddon-not that there is anything wrong with that.
I’d assume Benedict Donald’s 31% approval rating is all evang based, so does it dip below the double digits when the nutters turn on him?
Sitting here in what was once considered the buckle of the Bible Belt it doesn’t seem that “evang.” However we have business Republicans up to our ears and real estate interests have taken over the onetime milltown/college town.
So if Trump crushes the thing the above really care about (it’s green in color) that will probably sink his struggling approvals more than anything else.
I was listening to a talk by Col. Douglas Macgregor and he makes clear how the Israelis are in a bind. To get any sort of the win in this war, they have to keep the US fighting – no matter the cost to the US. ot their concern. What started as a war of conquest for Greater Israel has now become an existential fight for their future existance. And now they are already having to contend with Turkiya that has aims of a Greater Turkiye that wants to grab parts of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon for themselves thus bringing them into a future conflict with Israel. Maybe what Israel needs to do is sign a peace treaty with Iran and then go into a military alliance with them against Turkiye. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
As we used to say about Europe, and as I’ve heard applied to Middle Eastern “allies” more recently, they will fight to the last American solder.
I remember from the Kuwait war that the joke among American troops was that the Kuwaiti national anthem was Onward Christian Soldiers.
Of course the Israelis claim Greater Israel itself is existential since the West Asia world is out to get them.
It’s not that different from our onetime Southern planters who defended slavery by saying that once liberated the slaves would turn around and kill their former masters. Therefore abolition was an “existential threat.”
And like Israel, those Southern planters were intent on spreading their system west into new States and even had ideas of expanding into Cuba. A sort of Greater Peculiar Institution.
Ah, but only Israel has a Right to Exist.
I wonder how long it will take before American parents start sending soiled disposable diapers to the White House?
Perhaps including a note reading “Please forward to Bibi’?
Well, since Bibi supposedly gets White House laundry services every time he comes to Washington, I guess that would be fitting…It all Depends :)
Apart from profoundly corrupt Trump is toxic. His truth social tweets are designed to be so. By making silly noises I don’t really know what, except chaos and misunderstandings, this toxic individual wants to achieve. Is he trying to gaslight the Iranians with this show of stupidity? It will fail.
The US in control od Straight of Hurmu sentence confused me as well.
I have no idea what really is happening. Good thing Trump and Nutting-yahoo are ‘on it’.
Their Al Haig Moment: “I am In Control” (visibly shaking and pooping his drawerz)
Come to think of it, that apparently is steady-state for Trump.
Hey , I have been off -line for 5 days- it does a body good. The geopolitical world is still eff’d up, with or without me.
There’s Iran doing its thing inside the strait. And there’s the USA military doing its thing as ships approach or leave Hormuz.
Has any A I model come up with a graph or table that shows one more day of no resolution equating to x number of days of significant global supply chain disruptions?
I imagine it exceeds a 1:30 ratio?
Trump is Doing a Ukraine on Taiwan. It Exposes a Startling New Level of US Weakness: ‘Trump has suspended weapons sales to Taiwan in a move that again shows he favours potential enemies over allies’
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/trump-taiwan-china-ukraine-arms-sales-b2981871.html
Iran says Trump’s Hormuz reopening claim ‘far from reality’
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran-says-trumps-hormuz-reopening-claim-far-from-reality-1.500551409-1.500551409
Erdogan’s Police Invades the Opposition Party Headquarters in Ankara After the Elected Leader Özel Refused to Hand Over it to the Goverment-Appointed Kılıçdaroğlu
https://www.sozcu.com.tr/chp-genel-merkezi-onunde-kilicdaroglu-ve-ozel-destekcileri-arasinda-arbede-p322331
Hegseth rants about ‘woke military’ and ‘political correctness’ during fiery West Point graduation speech: ‘Diversity is not our strength. Unity is our strength,’ Hegseth told graduating West Point cadets
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hegseth-west-point-graduation-speech-b2982557.html
Iran has not agreed to hand over highly enriched uranium stockpile, senior Iranian source tells Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-has-not-agreed-hand-over-highly-enriched-uranium-stockpile-senior-iranian-2026-05-24/
Britain’s navy prepares to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz while waiting for a peace deal
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-britain-navy-hormuz-mines-9e79d2fef14886d36881883f64b45bca
‘Diversity is not our strength. Unity is our strength,’ Hegseth told graduating West Point cadets
Isn’t that, like, a basic tenet of facism?
Bahrain sentences nine to life over alleged IRGC links
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605241561
US, Iran make contradicting claims on peace deal, clash on nuclear issue | The Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-897072
EU faces Turkey test over maritime territory grab
https://www.euractiv.com/news/eu-faces-turkey-test-over-maritime-territory-grab/
Russia Is Turning the Screws on Armenia Over Its Tilt to Europe
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-is-turning-the-screws-on-armenia-over-its-tilt-to-europe
Netanyahu told Trump Israel will remain free to act against threats, Israeli source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-told-trump-israel-will-remain-free-act-against-threats-israeli-source-2026-05-24/
I think that Trump has got it through his thick one that he has no good miliatry options and desperately wants a deal. He may know damned well that the US and Iran are a long way from a real agreement but hopes to keep markets propped up and stave off recession as they inch toward. . . something. How he ever constructs this as a win. . . hard to see. But re-casting himself, counter-intuitively, as the peacemaker, using that word a lot, seems to be an idea they’re feeling out.
If Iran is collecting tolls at the end of this, still has its option to fairly readily build nukes, history will laugh at the Donald. The Republicans will continue to try to humor Grampa; the rest of the world will know what a bloody, brutal disaster this has been.
None of this might bar some stupid bombing raid on which Trump could base more of his trademark cringy triumphalist rhetoric.
He has known enough to declare bankruptcy six times in the past when it was strategically necessary, true.
Realistically, he probably doesn’t have that option this time, though. He will think he does. But empire do not go gently into the night and Trump will be discarded like a used kleenex–see Yves’ comments above–when the imperial elites are ready.
He’s only alive and acting up in the White House because it suited their purposes to have him as a convenient tool — a beard and front while they implemented long-long-plannedp strategies. When it’s time, he’ll be discarded. If necessary with extreme prejudice
“I think that Trump has got it through his thick one that he has no good miliatry options and desperately wants a deal. ”
In fairness, I think Trump probably wanted out within the first 24–and definitely withing the first 72–hours.
What is perhaps getting through his thick skull now is that he will not be able to make a deal that are remotely on his terms unless he exercises a lot of creativity and gets a lot of help. He and his group lack the creativity, and they have more or less pointlessly alienated anybody who would otherwise be willing to help.
But yeah, I am in the camp that there will be one last bombing raid–although there may a few week or month lull, I think the US is going to keep up its posture until it gets completely and utterly humiliated (well, I guess it’s already there, but I mean more so).
There is one point that I think is rarely mentioned, though: I personally believe (maybe wrong on this) that a lot of countries (European especially, but there are others) that are willing to watch Trump twist in the wind in his failure may eventually come to his aid in some face-saving measures in order to prevent the absolute worst consequences biting them in the butt as well (i.e., they are willing to trade schadenfreude for less crisis). Of course, Trump posting stupid images about Greenland again reduces those chances.
Quit saying that!
The faith in Israeli omnipotence is excessive. It appears that the fate of the world economy is more important than the greater Israel agenda. Mossad’s magical powers did not bring down Iran, and the Iron dome leaked badly. Zionist billionaires are outnumbered by their plutocratic peers, so it looks like Miriam Adelson will receive a poor return on her investment in Trump.
Trump will wriggle out of the stupid Iran war by making concessions that he will lie about, satisfying what is left of his credulous supporters. He will then direct his attention to beating up feeble Latin American nations until they can put together an alliance to restrain him. The decline of the U.S. empire will be increasingly farcical if the public continues to elect belligerent fools to high office.
I think we-all don’t fear any direct Israeli omnipotence so much as their influence over the monster that Washington can raise.
I am not one to pray much but given all that’s happening in the world, I am saying prayers for peace in the world. Stay safe and be well.
Prepare Ship, pilot. No point staying on a doomed planet.
Donald Trump has been the most successful War Leader in World History!
No one else has EVER decisively won the same war TWELVE TIMES in less than six months.
We are blessed.
Wait! Are you saying that he deserves twelve Noble Peace prizes then?
Well, considering what they are worth these days…
If I were Norway, I would happily promise him that F!@#ing prize if he just leaves Iran immediately and doesn’t come back. I would give him a new one for every year he is President and stays the F!@# out, too.
The Prize is garbage and has no credibility anyway. This would be the first good use for the stupid thing–giving that damned trinket to the moron in exchange for not destroying the world is one of the best deals imaginable.
You are making the same mistake Trump does. Norway doesn’t pick the prize winners.
Isn’t it the Norwegian committee, as appointed by Norway’s parliament? I metonymize that as Norway,
If not, my understanding is off and I will go apply for my own prize afterwards :)
(and yes, I know you can’t apply for a Nobel…)
This sounds like the “agreed upon peace deal” with Russia that Witkoff was coming up with on a monthly basis back when Ukraine was the hot war du jour. Yes, “we” negotiated a great deal without talking directly to the main opposing party and its terms never matched anything Russia had stated as the firm requirements of any sort of deal. And this deal sounds like another one where we don’t recognize what the other side is saying and just make up our own version based on some fantasies. But maybe this is just a stall to do a pretend “peace President” PR moment and justify waiting out the Hajj before going kinetic again.
I didn’t know about the Hajj, I thought it would be this weekend.
So land invasion is off the table given local weather, but trump still stuck so he’s got to do something. How much longer can he hold off the last hurrah? So maybe May 31?
I wonder what all those sailors are thinking. bet it’s hot swabbing those decks. Got steaks?
I remember how unpopular our guys were after we gave up in Vietnam. Hope it’s better this time. Good luck with recruitments.
I don’t know about you guys but all I can say is that with these negotiations, that we will finally have peace in our time.
The problem with that analogy is that we must wonder about who the “baddies” are.
I do agree that we are now going through a “sitzkreig” phase. Next up, someone does a false flag attack on the Basra Radio transmitter?
More of a schvitzkrieg in Operation Bibirossa, no?
Trump has finally found a small enough enemy
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/05/trump-cuba-castro-blockade-embargo-venezuela-oil-military-rubio/
Trump: US will not rush Iran deal, Hormuz blockade stays until agreement signed
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ry116dfxefl
UAE joins Saudi Arabia, Qatar in urging Trump not to restart Iran war
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/uae-joins-saudi-arabia-qatar-in-urging-trump-not-to-restart-iran-war
Ivanka Trump ‘targeted in Iran-backed assassination plot’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/23/ivanka-trump-iran-irgc-assassination-terror-plot/
UAE suddenly realizes they are Iran’s no 1 target in gulf?
That’s the IRGC division in Tel Aviv scheming on Ivanka.
On a side note, based on the side note from Yves…
And while you were busy watching the latest episode of the Iran war drama….from Simplicius, Oreshnik Shocks Ukrainian Capital: Kiev on Fire After Largest Ballistic Attack of War.
I believe Alexander Mercouris discussed in yesterday’s program that the Russians were really POed at the UKR attack on the school in Lugansk and that there was going to be severe payback.
RT agrees:
https://www.rt.com/russia/640509-oreshnik-strike-retaliation-for-kievs/
The fabulous Trita Parsi on Breaking Points-Sunday. His best point may be that this Trump tweet was grammatical and listed the names correctly. Still, jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
This jumped out at me:
“The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, wrote in a post on social platform X.
Projection is an ugly thing, but explaining that to Senators Wicker and Graham would be more difficult than teaching a gerbil to solve a nonlinear differential equation.
So one wonders how Trump can deliver durable sanctions relief, when it won’t make it past the Senate. Assuming Trump really does capitulate in a manner that could satisfy Iranian demands. Which is questionable.
White House says ex-Secretary of State Pompeo should ‘shut his stupid mouth’ on Iran
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5893185-trump-pompeo-iran-deal-criticism/
Islamic regime ‘will not abandon’ Hezbollah, Araghchi promises in message to Qassem
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-897129
US warns Japan of severe delays in Tomahawk deliveries due to Iran war
https://www.ft.com/content/406bc3bb-068b-4f4c-b064-23082e8a9f70
An ever-expanding catastrophe over Iran is not inevitable. Trump can and must be stopped
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/23/ever-expanding-global-catastrophe-inevitable-donald-trump
Trump told Netanyahu no final Iran deal without dismantling nuclear program: Official
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/05/24/trump-told-netanyahu-no-final-iran-deal-without-dismantling-nuclear-program-official
Trump Doctor Visit Renews Health Scrutiny as 80th Birthday Nears
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-24/trump-doctor-visit-renews-health-scrutiny-as-80th-birthday-nears
>White House says ex-Secretary of State Pompeo should ‘shut his stupid mouth’ on Iran
A fine example! We should all be talking about and to every single member of the theater class like they’re sticky-fingered scullery maids in need of a mouth adjustment.
Yes. I very rarely agree with any comment from the White House, but there are levels of Evil, and Pompeo is way up there. In a quote from the article, also noted above by Yves, Pompeo says this:
“…It’s straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region. Overdue. Let’s go.”
See how easy it is? Let’s go!
As some of us suggested above, I would so, so much like to see this warmongering a**hole pick up a weapon and stand at post, preferably on the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf. After all, he used to brag about his West Point background and military service quite frequently. Otherwise, he should shut his stupid mouth.
Pompeo is a pretty strident evang on the outside looking in, and if they don’t get their Armageddon, all is lost for their cause. It kinda reeks of desperation-his words.
I see nothing here that looks like a “peace deal” or any other sort of a deal. Rather the carnival huckster is whipsawing the markets yet again so that he and his minions can trade on his “unpredictability.”
Don’t be lulled by a false sense of relief. The vandalism of global petrochemical, oil, and gas infrastructure is done. The cracks in the edifice are already forming. Patrick Wood’s piece in yesterday’s Links lays out how the “tokenization of everything” may make it possible for certain elites to use the collapse as an excuse to sweep all the chips off the table and to leave the rest of us holding an empty bag by 2032-34.
There is no way that the number of ships can return to prewar levels anytime soon. The damage to the various production and transportation facilities must be repaired and restored before that can happen.
Ships aren’t just going to sail back and forth in ballast- there must be cargo.
The military and engineering incompetence of this administration is truly incredible.
Trump vents more verbal smoke. Nothing has changed[?] in the deployment of troops, planes, or ships, while Israel continues attacks on Lebanon. The situation in the Middle East remains unchanged, uncertain, and unstable. What might happen next remains mysterious as ever.
I do not mind being given a little more time to try to gather the things I might need over the next many months … or years. Time to plant is come. I need to tend to my garden.
I didn’t know MbS of Saudi Arabia was elected “president.” That’s great to know.
Not sure who the congress critter questioning the navy head honcho is either. What’s he expect? Ironman to show up and help? These people are deluded to the extreme. WTF are they supposed to do and HTF are they supposed to do it?? Take the L fer Pete’s sake.
Just before going to sleep, I saw this story last night:
https://houseofsaud.com/houthi-three-oceans-ceasefire-gap/
“On May 24, Ansar Allah claimed simultaneous strikes on three commercial vessels across three separate maritime zones: the Yannis in the Red Sea, the Essex in the Mediterranean, and the MSC Alexandra in the Arabian Sea. CENTCOM confirmed two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired into the Red Sea. The Essex strike remains disputed — Zodiac Maritime, which manages the vessel, found no evidence of a hit, and MarineTraffic placed the ship in Egyptian waters the day before. But the triple claim accomplished what a single confirmed strike could not: it demonstrated that the US-Iran ceasefire framework, signed April 7, contains no clause, no mechanism, and no named obligation that addresses the force controlling Bab al-Mandab…
…Two strikes are confirmed; one remains disputed. CENTCOM verified two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired into the Red Sea on May 24, consistent with attacks on the Yannis and the MSC Alexandra. The Essex claim in the Mediterranean is contested by Zodiac Maritime, which manages the vessel and found no evidence of a hit. Whether or not the Mediterranean missile landed, the three-zone claim was transmitted simultaneously — and the insurance markets do not wait for CENTCOM confirmation…”
Lo and behold, no one seems to have seen these reports any where else. The continued Lebanan attacks are noticed (as they should be with the increasing death toll). But I can’t imagine this news would help if there are worries about the bond and other financial markets.
“…But MARAD’s advisory zone — the formal US government risk designation covering the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and Somali Basin — does not include the Mediterranean. If the strike occurred, the United States government has not acknowledged the geographic expansion of the threat. If it did not occur, the Houthis have successfully projected the perception that they can reach the Mediterranean, imposing a psychological and insurance cost on shipping routes that no current government advisory covers. Tankers leaving Yanbu for European markets via Suez now face a threat claim that the insuring and routing frameworks have not priced…”
—–
And yes…I also think more fireworks start after the Hajj.
This is Trump and Irsael leading the bloodlust, so I fully expect war to resume during the Haj.
Murdoch Paper Warns That Trump, 79, Has ‘Lost the Plot’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/rupert-murdochs-wall-street-journal-warns-donald-trump-79-has-lost-the-plot/
Iran: Trump remarks on Strait of Hormuz ‘inconsistent with reality’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5893215-iran-war-trump-deal-strait/
Cheap attack drones break through Israel’s Iron Dome
https://www.dw.com/en/cheap-attack-drones-break-through-israels-iron-dome/a-77235132
Tillis: Hegseth makes Noem look like ‘five-star recruit’
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5893252-tillis-slams-hegseth-defense/
Republican hawks warn of ‘disastrous mistake’ as Trump nears deal with Iran | US-Israel war on Iran
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/24/republican-hawks-trump-deal-iran
Trump goes on bizarre Truth Social posting blitz including picture of Obama in prison and AI image bombing Iranian ships
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-truth-social-images-obama-iran-ships-b2982772.html
Senior Iranian Military Officer Warns U.S. Against Hormuz Escalation
https://wanaen.com/rezaei-warns-u-s-against-hormuz-escalation/
Why Trump Lost [the Iran War]
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/05/why-trump-lost-iran/687291/
Trump’s 3,711 Trades Point to Multiple Stock-Market Strategies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-05-23/trump-s-3-711-trades-point-to-multiple-stock-market-strategies
White House says Iran deal could take days
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/iran-deal-white-house-delay-days-trump
Iran executes person for sending information to US, Israel during war, judiciary says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-executes-person-sending-information-us-israel-during-war-judiciary-says-2026-05-24/
– Tillis: Hegseth makes Noem look like ‘five-star recruit’
To clarify, Senator Tillis (R-NC) is especially critical of the potential Iran deal being floated in the media: “I’m not too far away from where Pompeo is to be honest with your and I support what Chairman Wicker says,” Tillis said during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5893248-tillis-criticizes-iran-peace-deal/
So it’s not like Hegseth’s wild-eyed neo-fascist Imperial Storm Trooper rhetoric is the problem. It’s that we’re giving away the farm like wimps. C’mon guys! To quote our great former Secretary of State and CIA Director Mike Pompeo, “Let’s go!”
‘Murdoch Paper Warns That Trump, 79, Has ‘Lost the Plot’’
Murdoch turns on Trump? ‘Et tu, Brute?’
Rubio Baselessly Smears Bolivia’s Protesters as “Criminals and Drug Traffickers”
https://truthout.org/articles/rubio-baselessly-smears-bolivias-protestors-as-criminals-and-drug-traffickers/
Four Russian satellites are now within striking distance of an ICEYE radarsat
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/05/a-satellite-company-supporting-ukraine-appears-to-be-in-russias-crosshairs
28 separate false claims Trump made this week
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/23/politics/fact-check-28-false-claims-trump
Bahrain sentences nine to life over alleged IRGC links
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605241561
Iran has not agreed to hand over highly enriched uranium stockpile, senior Iranian source tells Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-has-not-agreed-hand-over-highly-enriched-uranium-stockpile-senior-iranian-2026-05-24/
I hear on MSM about a MOU, a path towards Peece.
I come here, find out it is moar Trump rubbish.
I go back to my holiday weekend, thank you NC!
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of highly-enriched uranium, White House official says
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-peace-deal-negotiations-highly-enriched-uranium/
Navy chief undercuts Trump and Hegseth on Taiwan, Iran
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5892374-navy-secretary-taiwan-arms-sale-pause-iran/
What really happened? Troops and intelligence reports suggest service member deaths in Iran were preventable | Service members and intel agencies reportedly warned about potential vulnerabilities and enemy fire before deadly incidents killed 13
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/iran-war-death-toll-hegseth-intelligence-reports-b2981465.html
MAGA Warmongers Turn on Trump Over Betrayal
https://www.thedailybeast.com/maga-warmongers-turn-on-trump-over-betrayal/
Trump tells US negotiators ‘not to rush’ into deal with Iran
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp0040x7po
Ted Cruz shreds MAGA influencer defending Trump’s Iran deal: ‘Hush, child!’
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/ted-cruz-alex-bruesewitz-trump-iran-b2982795.html
Iran says it is winning the negotiations with Trump on ending the war
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5893385-iran-us-conflict-resolution/
Trump said gas prices are ‘peanuts.’ Only if you’re rich.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/24/rising-gas-prices-are-widening-gap-between-rich-poor/
Trump’s Tariffs Have Created an Economic Sh*tshow Beyond Your Wildest Imagination
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-tariffs-florsheim-shoes
Trump asked Muslim leaders to join Abraham Accords after Iran war ends
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/trump-iran-war-israel-muslim-countries-abraham-accords
Iran’s supreme leader is holed up in undisclosed location, U.S. intelligence says
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-supreme-leader-holed-up-undisclosed-location-mojtaba-khamenei/
Trump admin declares ‘no dust, no dollars’ for Iran — Islamic Republic must give up nuclear material before sanctions relief
https://nypost.com/2026/05/24/us-news/trump-admin-declares-no-dust-no-dollars-for-iran-islamic-republic-must-give-up-nuclear-material
“Trump admin declares ‘no dust, no dollars’ for Iran — Islamic Republic must give up nuclear material before sanctions relief”
If Iran is actually charging for transit through the Straits, I am not sure what “sanctions” even mean at that point, anymore. Basically, they have a guaranteed inflow of cash, and they can transact with other countries (that pay for their oil to get through) in whatever goods and services they want in return–presumably all outside of the SWIFT system.
I am sure there must be much more to this because Iran is insisting on this point, but I am still missing something in my understanding. Does it really need SWIFT that badly?
The “credible sources” are all describing widely discrepant agreements. So you’re not misunderstanding anything. At least some sources are leaking agreements aren’t real. Maybe ALL sources are. And we have no way of knowing which ones are the truthful ones.
Seems like no deal. Trump has to swallow a loss and it ain’t happening. Get ready for week 12.
Meanwhile, NY Times headline still claims we’re almost there. What a joke. I want what these people are smoking.
I think the problem for Trump is that he will have to swallow a loss sooner or later anyway. It is just a question of how much more he is willing to lose by delaying another few days.
I am certain he knows this, which is why the odds of him taking a(nother) stupid, risky gamble sooner or later seem very high
Incidentally, if you track his rhetoric over time, you can sort of hear it. Originally he was demanding that Iran come groveling to him for a deal. Now he is just sort of screaming incoherently about how the press is going to make fun of him once he actually signs one.
‘Islamic Republic must give up nuclear material before sanctions relief’
And of course if Iran gave up its nuclear material, those sanctions would stay put using some other excuse such as their missile program, their support for its regional allies, etc. Even that material going to Russia for safekeeping is unacceptable to the US as Russia would give it back if the US failed to keep their side of the deal. The price to pay of being agreement incapable.
Iran must realize that it is offering the US something of immeasurable value: a cessation of hostilities for a US military that has depleted its munitions and is roasting on overcrowded ships 9,000 miles from home.
In return for being released from a check mate, the US now wants to offer Iran absolutely NOTHING in return except promises.
Any normal state unrestrained by Iran’s religious commitment to using violence only defensively would simply attack the remaining US forces until they withdrew with their tails between their legs, which would deter future violence by the US.
By instead allowing the US to attack it and then withdraw whenever it feels like it without any consequences, Iran is actually encouraging continued US aggression against Iran and others. How is this not a violation of Iran’s religious principles?
All this “talking in tongues” must delight the Evang crowd…(sarc)
sittin here, listenin to the rai(again! ugh!) and watching these guys talk.
have no idea who Einar Tangen is, but i reckon he’s welcome around my fire any ol time…a very thoughtful person.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-V8u-iEESO8
Yes, definitely worth the time to listen. Thanks!
Trump: Netanyahu ‘will do whatever I want him to do’ on Iran
https://apnews.com/video/trump-netanyahu-will-do-whatever-i-want-him-to-do-on-iran-eb1eedbf683640468e66b33f0f9590c3
‘Trump needs a deal, no matter how bad it is’
https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/5/24/trump-needs-a-deal-no-matter-how-bad-it
Trump’s War Is Staggering to an Incoherent Defeat
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/trump-iran-war/687292/
Trump gives Tehran new warning on nuclear weapons as US and Iran edge towards deal
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-iran-peace-deal-israel-war-b2982739.html
Breath of fresh air here. In the past 48 hours I have read “credible” big news organizations stating confidently: Iran gave the text to the US; we’re waiting for Iran’s approval of the text; it’s a quick open now followed by negotiations; it’s (now on CNN) “trust but verify on steroids…”
This isn’t even “negotiating with ourselves,” this is just spitballing on live television. Is there actually a deal on the table at all?
The Israeli media is verging on hysterical today, but the Tel Aviv stock exchange and the shekel are both climbing on the news. The split between the obvious relief at the war possibly coming to an end and the inability for Netanyahu to be seen as having played a role in this is significant, I think: he gambled on winning by pulling Trump in fully and lost control, appears to be the narrative. I also think it has been decided on the US side that Netanyahu’s lost the juice and no longer an effective partner because he is unlikely to win the election later this year and possibly general untrustworthiness. He’s also very clearly in poor health and declining and has no obvious successor.
Some sightings this morning in Israeli MSM:
– Israel began the Iran war as a partner of the US — and is ending it on the sidelines | Times of Israel
– As loud as the roar, as deafening the defeat: three months into war, Iran emerges stronger
Opinion: Despite US and Israeli war plans, Iran emerges in a stronger position nearly three months after launch; Regime-change strategy collapsed amid internal US disputes, Trump vetoes, leaving Israel in prolonged multi-front conflict and strategic uncertainty | Ynet
– Netanyahu’s Promises of Victory in Iran End in a Glorious U.S. Capitulation | Haaretz
I think the “Israel will be able to continue defending itself” loophole will obviously continue to come up – I sincerely doubt we’re in for a long term ceasefire on any front – but remember that Netanyahu’s coalition has collapsed and elections are being scheduled for September or October now. US midterm campaigning begins officially in a month (already unofficially underway judging by my parents’ moaning about the commercials in the states). The Hajj is underway. The heat is climbing even here in the Central Mediterranean. This may not be “over” but I think we’ve just had a very major turning point that will impact the direction of threat significantly until regime change in Israel later this year.
From my perspective the markets are up in Israel and US because IRAN appears to be capitulating, not the US.
Iran did the same thing a year ago. Apparently it will never learn. Iran’s last minute capitulation will once again allow Israel and the US to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. As its reward, Iran should expect yet another unprovoked attack next year.