Russia finally responds to the latest Ukrainian/NATO provocations and hammers Kiev with several ballistic missiles. On Friday, Ukraine/NATO hit Lugansk Pedagogical University, including a dormitory where students were sleeping, with waves of drones killing at least 21. The public outrage made a response inevitable, and here it is. Will there be more?
Here’s the latest from RT:
Ukrainian media and Telegram channels have circulated videos showing clusters of bright objects rapidly descending from the sky. They claimed the footage captured the use of Russia’s intermediate-range hypersonic Oreshnik system, although Moscow has not officially confirmed the launch.
The latest footage resembles videos that circulated in January, when Russia used the Oreshnik system in a strike on a Ukrainian aviation plant in Lviv that was repairing and servicing warplanes and producing long-range drones.
The reported strike came after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Defense Ministry to “submit proposals” for a response to a Ukrainian drone attack on a school dormitory in the Lugansk People’s Republic, which left 21 people, mostly children, dead and 42 injured.
And here’s video and commentary from the Twitter:
ENOURMOUS attack on Kyiv tonight.
At least 20 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 6 Kalibr cruise missiles, 4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, as well as 2 Oreshnik IRBMs have targeted Kyiv. At least 12 Kh-101 cruise missiles are now on their way to Kyiv.
Additional missiles… https://t.co/sy803KVrty
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) May 24, 2026
First time we’ve seen Oreshnik out of a clear sky.
Kiev’s having a bad night right now. https://t.co/7nWAdLCySY pic.twitter.com/Tu1htzqpJQ
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) May 23, 2026
Massive fires seen burning in Kiev.
Multiple military industrial plants were targeted. pic.twitter.com/PBu022HExs
— ayden (@squatsons) May 24, 2026
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi may have been killed https://t.co/ckVAGDHy3P pic.twitter.com/3Pc2D6H6SH
— RUnews (@runews) May 23, 2026
NASA FIRMS data shows that large fires are burning at the Artem Defence Plant in Kyiv following overnight Russian ballistic and cruise missile strikes.
The Artem plant is known to produce air-to-air missiles, automated air-guided missile training and maintenance systems,… pic.twitter.com/Lb4OpPAGZl
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) May 24, 2026
🇷🇺🇺🇦 A fragment of a Patriot anti-aircraft missile somewhere in Kiev. The Ukrainian propagandists traditionally claim that this is a "Russian" missile. pic.twitter.com/9mpc5g8W6m
— Black Diamond (@blackdiammon) May 24, 2026
Will the strikes have any effect on Ukrainian leaders determination to keep feeding the meat grinder? Will European leaders do anything other than call for more assistance for Ukraine?
footage is Apocalyptic and just a fraction of the damage Russia is capable of if the chihuahuas in Europe continue to greenlight Kiev’s terrorist attacks on Russia. You see the sky light up as the strikes hit home, one layered barrage after another. Moscow isn’t playing games. https://t.co/fnymRGHZdU
— THE ISLANDER (@IslanderWORLD) May 24, 2026
Just prior to the Russian strikes on Kiev, Ukraine was making renewed and impeccably timed demands on EU membership. From Reuters:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a letter to EU leaders that a German proposal to grant Ukraine “associate” membership of the European Union was “unfair” because it would leave Kyiv without a voice inside the bloc.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested earlier this week allowing Ukraine to participate in EU meetings and institutions without a vote as an interim step toward full membership of the bloc, which he said could help facilitate a deal to end the four-year-old war triggered by Russia’s invasion.
In response, Zelenskiy said in a letter sent late on Friday, reviewed by Reuters, that Ukraine was pressing ahead quickly with the reforms needed for full EU membership while also acting as a bulwark against Russian aggression for the whole of the 27-nation bloc.
“We are defending Europe – fully, not partially, and not with half-measures,” said the 48-year-old leader, accusing Russia of trying to destroy European unity and destabilize parts of the continent. “It would be unfair for Ukraine to be present in the European Union, but remain voiceless.”
So there’s that.
Regardless of the strikes, models of attritional warfare continue to suggest that Ukraine is nearing a breaking point.
Source: Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin
Warwick Powell predicts that the tipping point will come in July-September. Peter Turchin is more cautious but agrees the collapse is nearing. The growing number of complaints—and attacks—against Ukrainian enlistment officers back up these predictions.
Stay under Iranian control?
Nigel
I noticed that too, but it was in the Iran War update for today, not in this post about Ukraine.
The reaction in Western MSM seems so far to be just another bombing. Russia as it seems has not instilled the fear of God and Mr. Oreshnik in the Europeans yet.
Unless greatly slow-motioned, The “air defense”videos show submunitions separating but nothing coming in at hypersonic speed. Maybe those were too quick to record while sheltering?
Russia needs to start incepting NATO missiles earlier so that their debris falls on the launch country.
The video at Links is more convincing of a hypersonic strike .. no incoming caught in flight.
Correct. Those aren’t Oreshnik strikes in the videos here, unless slow-motioned, although Oreshniks may have been used elsewhere on deep military targets.
For some reason the Ukrainian regime thought it a great idea to attack a school dorm and pretend that it was a military target. It is unknown if the US helped here but after the attack on Minab school, who can tell? There were about 86 kids asleep there at the time in the the Starobelsk Professional College dorm and the Ukrainians launched three waves against there, using 16 drones. So far the death count is at 21 & 42 wounded with most of them being teenage girls and the Russians are furious. The Russians became even more enraged when the west tried to blow off the whole thing at the UN suggesting that it never happened or demanding an investigation – which would take a coupla years. Denmark covered itself in glory when they charged the Russians for not allowing ‘unfettered access for credible independent journalists or international humanitarian organizations’ when that was exactly what the Russians did. The BBC and CNN aren’t going and Japan has ordered their journalists not to go too. This huge attack was payment for this attack but I suspect that in the long run, it may be only a down payment.
Bombing schools and killing kids sounds familiar. Is that US targeting?
It’s not fair! I guess Z isn’t familiar with The Big Lebowski.
… been somewhat offline late last week, so missed news of Friday’s attack. First thing that jumped out was that it was an attack on a school. Sounds familiar indeed …
Yes, killing women, children, the elderly, medical personnel…it’s just what we do. It will surely break the will of the populace and make them rise up and overthrow “the regime” and bow down in gratitude before the killers of their loved ones. Doctrine since World War II, lately conflated with “killing Amaleks” to give it a new religious gloss for the evangelicals.
When the attrition collapses things may also depend on how many more desperate (or just foolhardy) Colombians, Brazilians, Peruvians, and sheep-dipped NATO boys keep joining the fray on Ukraine’s side.
This would be the second time Palantir targeted a school full of children.
The weirdest thing is that by the Western reckoning Starobelsk is a Ukrainian city under occupation where the patriotic Ukrainian population yearns to be liberated.
One of the biggest loss of Ukrainian civilian life event during the conflict, and the Western press just can’t be bothered. Almost as if they learned from Bucha and Kramatorsk not to look too deeply into these massacres and who did what.
“The weirdest thing is that by the Western reckoning Starobelsk is a Ukrainian city under occupation where the patriotic Ukrainian population yearns to be liberated.”
Could that mean the school was occupied by Ukrainian children?
I don’t know how well you know Slavic name patterns, but in the list of the 21 dead there are 10 surnames that are Ukrainian rather than Russian.
Back when Ukraine still made censuses 80% of the population in Starobelsk identified as Ukrainian, although only 60% could speak the language at some level.
There’s been a civil war going on in Ukraine for the last hundred or so years with the ensuing schismogenesis – and to some the biggest enemy are those who refuse to live by the division and just go on with their lives. SBU operatives have assassinated way more Ukrainians (as “-pro-Russian”) than Russians.
Ukraine’s only hope is to cause Russia to escalate enough to draw their NATO ‘allies’ in. The point of the attack is to create enough outrage to force escalation and roll the dice, rather than face certain failure through gradual attrition.
The Ukrainians seem to (falsely) believe that the NATO cupboard is not nearly empty. Someone should inform them (and the public) that there is no there there in their strategy that justifies (in their minds) murdering dozens of young girls.
The Guardian today has been a clownshow as well. The news organizations appear to barely acknowledge something might have happened in Russia before that attack to instigate. I think the Ukranians could set fire to an orphanage, with the kids inside, and the media would accuse the Russians of contributing to global warming because of the released CO2.
I almost cannot believe how one sided the media coverage is now. Ukraine has provoked Russia and attacked civilian structures for years, and is now actively attacking energy infrastructure that the world needs. All because little Z is throwing a fit that he is no longer the darling of the west. Too much support for Israel I guess? So now he blows up a kids school and is shocked that not only do the Russians respon in force, but no one is rushing to his side with the same promise of missiles and money that Bibi is getting?
According to Canadian PM Carney, every action by Russia is “unprovoked” and Russia is losing.
He almost said the same thing about Iran…
If the U.S. and NATO want to see how far up the escalation ladder Russia will go, the Russians will oblige them.
1) Russian MoD estimates for KIA/WIA nearing 1.7M. Said to be conservative, not counting bodies in burnt out vehicles on the field or buildings destroyed.
Also, what about the 2M count those hackers published last year.
2) Ukrainians will carry on targetting civilian targets, those are the easiest to hit – and from their limited strategic POV it makes sense as an eventual Russian attack on NATO could lead to direct EU/NATO involvement which is exactly what Ukrainians desire and they try to achieve just that with “terrorizing” the Russian population.
Selensky said as much publicly. So hitting dormitories it not only interpreted to be rational from their POV. We actually know it´s intended since we have been told.
Sleboda had warned 3 years ago that this will be a long war.
Just as a reminder, Germany lost 10M soldiers fighting for 6 years – and they were hated by the world press – with a population initially twice the size of Ukraine.
1. That 2mm figure published by hackers included AWOLs. If memory serves, at the time that was in the ~400k range.
2. The 1.7mm estimate includes those wounded who return to action. And can also double-count, e.g. if someone is wounded, returns to action, and is wounded again.
What you are really looking for is irrecoverable losses – killed, wounded so seriously they drop out permanently, or captured. There are different ways to try and estimate this, and I would note that Ukrainian dead-to-wounded ratio seems to be worse than what you’d typically expect in a modern conflict due to issues with medevac (often not done at all). Still, if you assume 30% to 50% of the 1.7mm is irrecoverable losses, you get to a roughly 500-800 thousand range. I believe there was a recent estimate of 400-500 thousand actual dead somewhere, but do not recall where I might have seen it…
…I said a couple of years ago, by the end of this thing the Russians will have incurred 200 thousand dead, and the Ukrainians a cool million. I’d say we are about 2/3 of the way there, on both counts…
re: Sarmat
UN´s Pavel Podvig linked to this comprehensive Russian article about SARMAT:
“Perhaps the world’s most informative article on the 15A28 Sarmat ICBM has been reopened
Perhaps temporarily, since such articles are sometimes prohibited.”
http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-1006.html
https://archive.is/gdQOE
Military Summary channel says 3 locations were targeted and the Oreshnik (singular) did not strike Kiev but Belaya Tserkov, to the southwest of Kiev:
Makes more sense.
Russian MOD uses plural of Oreshnik in it’s announcement (“баллистическими ракетами «Орешник»”), and Ukrainians are reporting three strikes – two in Kiev, one in Belaya Tserkov (likely a Soviet era air base).
Something did hit the headquarters of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and there were unverified claims of Syrsky being among the casualties.
Wow! It took the Russians four years to find the Ukrainian military headquarters.
Here in Sonoma County Ukrainian flags started disappearing 18 months ago, almost all have been gone for a year…
No one loves a loser.
Same in the middle of Georgia. Only one left that I see, in the picture window of a storefront office of some kind, a law firm I think.
Not that anyone of my acquaintance believes anything other than Putin is the devil incarnate and the US, NATO, and Ukraine are as pure as the driven snow.
Midwest college town, very few overall but the house up a block from us had one up every day since the whole thing started, but has been gone for the last month or so.
Ursula VdL, Macron and other high ups in the EU have rushed to condemn the Russian attack. Yet make no mention of the college dorm attack by Ukraine that preceeded it.[In fact most western media reported that as an accusation by Putin rather than something that actually happened.] As with the constant condemnation of Iran but barely a whisper about Israeli atrocities, the hypocrisy of the EU knows no bounds and shows the world how warped and irrelevant the EU is on the world stage. Pathetic.
You just had 50 foreign journalists from 19 countries – Austria, Brazil, UK, Hungary, Venezuela, Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy, Qatar, China, Cuba, Lebanon, UAE, Pakistan, the US, Turkey, Finland, and France – visit that site to see and report for themselves. The BBC, CNN and the Japanese are conspicuous for their absence-
https://www.rt.com/russia/640512-foreign-journalists-visit-russian-college/
Russia’s newly appointed human rights commissioner, Yana Lantratova, then gets stuck into them asking where are they.
As long as such bombings fall short of a decapitating strike, they are just theater.
Not to those killed
12 years of war and all the 7D chess later, He’s still responding and reacting to provocations from the West and its proxy with no Will of His own.
No idea what 12 year war you’re talking about.
There’s been some 4 plus years of a Special Military Operation (SMO) dating back to February 2022. Prior to that there was the Ukrainian Anti Terror Operation (ATO) mounted against the Russian speaking populations in Donetsk and Lugansk and dating back to 2014 when those two separatist Oblasts broke away from UKR.
If and when Russia is pushed to actually going to war against NATO, and I mean a real “full scale” no holds barred war, everybody in the world but most especially people in Europe will know all about it.
I think Russia continues to try walking a fine line maintaining the SMO as a “limited” war, and seeking to avoid–despite repeated provocations like the dormitory attack–expanding the war into the Baltics. Targeting western Ukraine, and any and all installations in Ukraine where NATO advisors are, is the likely limit to Russia’s escalation. Whether this will be sufficient to make the Europeans back off is the question, Based on recent history, one would have to say no. At every step, the Russians have been cautious, measured, and rational, while the Europeans have been reckless and irrational at every turn. It is hard to be optimistic in the face of uniformly corrupt and stupid leaders in the West. It’s as if the lessons of the past never happened. Tuchman’s apt phrase comes to mind: it seems an inexorable march of folly.
You’ve heard of the phrase ship of fools? The EU is more a car of idiots.