[Today’s Iran war update again launched before complete because overly dynamic situation. We aspire to have the post done by 8:00 AM EDT, at worst 8:30 AM EDT. Please return around then or refresh the page for the completed version.
Also be sure to scroll into the body for the financial markets/real economy sightings. These are important for fundamental reasons as well as putting pressure on Trump]
We signaled yesterday that, due to Trump conditioning, we were skeptical that Trump would deliver on his latest threat of an imminent, very big very bad attack on Iran, despite military-connected types saying they expected action based on continued movement of military assets into the theater and noises from contacts.
As the New York Times put it:
The Trump statement:
Now it is possible that this new flip flop is a feint to keep the growing investor freakout at bay, and that Trump will attack over the Memorial Day weekend, which we had seen as the probable timing. But as Jim Carville said,
I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.
As we’ll cover in more detail later in this post, yields rose meaningfully across the world as too-complacent finance types are finally coming to grips with the idea that the Strait of Hormuz is very unlikely to return to old normal traffic levels any time soon and that that is very bad, potentially catastrophically bad.2
Trump did give what we see as fundamentally misguided hopes of negotiations yet another lease on life via an itty bitty concessions to Iran. Note a story on Tasnim News, even picked up by Bloomberg, that the US was again going to lift sanctions on Iran oil, was false.3
In his tweet, he stated he had acceded to requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to hold off and continue with negotiations. We pointed out very early on that one way for this war to end sooner rather than later was for key Gulf states to come to terms with Iran, which would cripple US and Israeli operations.
We have no idea yet how firm these objections were, and they may not have been at the same intensity level. Recall that after Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others said they would not allow their airspaces to support Project Freedumb, Trump scuttled that operation. But several tweets on Twitter claimed that the Saudis were otherwise permitting the US to use their airspace.
Keep in mind that we do not know how firm the stance of these states is and whether they are unified. Larry Wilkerson said last weekend that the Saudis had lodged a protest over the use of their airspace and facilities, but he did not regard that as sufficient.4 Wilkerson opined that the the Saudis would need to tell the US that it was prepared to send in armed personnel to oust the Americans if needed.
Even though Trump’s relationship with truth is strained, he is constrained in how far he can go in fabricating by the fact that the White House is packed with Zionists. With that in mind, consider how Trump explicitly said he “informed” Israel of his decision to honor the Gulf states’ petition:
Starting at 1:13, from a machine transcript:
Reporter: Can you speak a little bit about your post on Truth Social on Iran and what was the decision that why you didn’t attack Iran?
Trump: Well, other countries have come to me and they’ve said we were getting ready to do a very major attack tomorrow. And I put it [snorts] off for a little while. Hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while.
Of course, we’ve had very big discussions with Iran.
And we’ll see what they amount to. I was asked by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and some others if we could put it off for two or three days, a short period of time because they think that they are getting very close to making a deal. And if we can do that where there’s no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran, I think. And and they’re satisfied, uh we will be probably satisfied also.
Uh we’ve uh informed Israel. We’ve informed other people in the Middle East that have been involved with us.
Now even if this positioning is entirely Trump spin, the fact is that the Gulf states, are seeing the mounting costs and potential for Iran sending them back to the stone ages with its promised ferocious retaliation in the event of another meaningful US/Israel attack. Out of self-preservation, they need the conflict to cool down to at most terrorism against Iran and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz at much higher levels. This obvious conflict with Israel is now becoming acute.
And if the UAE, which recently attached itself at the hip to Israel, is now retreating from more aggression, US and Israel operations in the theater would be hamstrung. I am not an expert but I would venture it would be more difficult to mount another round of full bore attacks, and at a minimum would require developing new plans.
However, even if enough Gulf states really are putting down their feet hard as far as stopping escalation is concerned, that is a long way away from ending the conflict. Israel could still try to go alone and drag the US in deeper. Even with a Gulf states revolt, I doubt Trump would drop the hammer on Israel by cutting off targeting support.6
And there is always the option of a false flag.
With Mario Nawfal, Trita Parsi picks though the Trump messaging right before and after his latest TACO. As I have warned readers repeatedly, it’s necessary to filter out Parsi carrying on about “negotiations” where former diplomat has objected to the use of that term, saying the messaging at a distance underway can at most be called talks.5
From a lightly-cleaned up machine transcript. At the top from Parsi:
I think a lot of people have seen of course the post in which he says that the UAE, Saudi, and Emirates asked him not to attack and as a result he’s pulling back, etc. And obviously that’s very important.
We should, you know, analyze that, but it’s also very important to take a look at the the tweet or the post that he had an hour or so before in which he at first it looks as if he was calling for Iran’s complete capitulation and their navies at the bottom of the sea, etc. etc.
Which again, if that is really what his message was would be devastating. It would mean that he is really going for war. It would be a tweet that would, you know, disrupt whatever negotiations were taking place.
But when you read the full tweet and it’s like one long sentence that is an entire paragraph, you realize actually that’s not what he’s doing. He’s saying that even if all of that was achieved, the mainstream media, New York Times would never say that he won.
Instead, they would say that Iran won. And I think that is reflective of the fact that he’s frustrated that he’s not going to be able to get the type of the win that he wants. But he’s also trying to say to everyone, I am going to get that win, but don’t trust the media when they say that Iran won because they will say that Iran won regardless of what the reality is.
That’s the kind of a tweet you’re going to say put forward when you’re about to actually back off from a very significant milestone that you had put forward for the negotiations. And in order to protect yourself from saying that, you know, this is a failure, he’s now discrediting the voices preemptively of those who are going to come out and criticize him and say that this is a failure because he didn’t achieve X Y Z that you had said that you would do.
Larry Johnson is not buying hopium and simply sees Trump in yet another rinse and repeat cycle. From The President Who Cries War, then Peace, Then War:
The lad who inspired Aesop to write, “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” (also known as “The Shepherd Boy and the Wolf”), has grown up and is now President of the United States. Since February 28, 2026, Donald Trump has released 11 statements suggesting the war with Iran was over or that a negotiated deal is close, only it turns out to be a hoax.
What emerges across nearly three months is a remarkably consistent cycle: Trump declares victory or proximity to a deal → Iran denies it or the facts on the ground contradict it → Trump escalates rhetoric → a new round of claimed breakthroughs begins. Analysts noted the contradictions reflected Trump seeking what one described as a “quick and easy” triumph while Tehran was determined to delay US demands and extract its own concessions first — a fundamental mismatch in negotiating timelines that produced the whipsaw of declarations. The declarations themselves have become a diplomatic liability, with Iran repeatedly using them as evidence that the US negotiating position is incoherent….
The only thing Trump is accomplishing with this constant reversal of his position on attacking Iran is giving friends and family who are clued in to Trump’s “peace” announcements the chance to make big money by shorting stocks and oil. Otherwise, he is undermining trust and confidence in his presidency. Aesop’s fable about the Boy Who Cried Wolf teaches the moral that repeated lying erodes trust, so that when a real crisis occurs, people won’t believe the liar.
Aside from being a very profitable exercise for Trump and his cronies, the Trump gaslighting has succeeded in another way: some major media outlets are not giving the conflict above-the-fold coverage.1 But the flip side is investors are not reacting as positively as they did before to Trump antics that ought to be market soothing. For instance, a fresh update from Aljazeera’s live feed:
Oil prices fall as Trump holds off on scheduled attack on Iran
Oil prices have fallen, with global benchmark Brent crude dropping 1.5 percent, after Trump said he had paused a planned military strike on Iran to allow for negotiations to end the war.Brent futures LCOc1 for July were down $1.73, or 1.5 percent, at $110.37 a barrel as of 08:25 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 for June delivery, which has expired, slipped 63 cents, or 0.60 percent, to $108.03.
The more active July contract CLc2 fell 82 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $103.56.
Some kinetic front sightings:
⚡️BREAKING
A regional source says the United States expects the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to be Closed
The Pentagon has significantly stepped up its surveillance over Yemen, and one of its MQ-9 drones was Shot Down less than 24 hours ago
The closure of this Strait would deprive… pic.twitter.com/5HfeQLQY7D
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) May 18, 2026
فعالشدن پدافند قشم علیه ریزپرندهها
خبرنگار تسنیم به نقل از منابع مطلع: پس از مشاهده ریز پرندهها در آسمان جزیره قشم، پدافند در جهت نابودی اهداف متخاصم فعال شده است
— خبرگزاری تسنیم – خبر فوری (@Tasnimbrk) May 18, 2026
خبرگزاری تسنیم – خبر فور\
Translated from Persian:
Qeshm’s Air Defense Activated Against Micro-Drones
Tasnim News Agency reporter, citing informed sources: Following the sighting of micro-drones in the skies over Qeshm Island, air defense systems have been activated to destroy the hostile targets.
On the economic front, the alarms about collateral damage from the continuing close-to-closure of the Strait of Hormuz are getting louder and identifying more types of collateral damage. Today’s must watch from Jeff Currie is short but pointed:
Last night, I went outside my normal media fare to listen to a few squawkbox type segments on the state of the bond market. They confirmed the alarms Currie has been making from early on in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, that the finance types are dangerously out of touch with the importance and ultimate primacy of commodities and supply chains. The pundits and bond pros nattered on about inflation with no joke virtually no mention of energy prices and none of the Strait of Hormuz. When asked what would come next, all talked about Fed action only. Below is an example of generally useful commentary that nevertheless is hopelessly anchored in the view finance is the driver of inflation and not the real economy:
It was as if I had entered a movie set where experts with market feeds on their screens were talking to TV producers, and in the outer window a huge head of Godzilla appears, with his teeth bared.
Similarly, this Aljazeera segment demonstrates how out of touch US elite beliefs are on the downside risks. In Trump halts planned Iran attack after Gulf leaders intervene amid diplomatic efforts the short discussion with the White House correspondent demonstrates how they will continue to sacrifice the general public. He describes that Republican Congresscritters worry that voters will punish them at the polls despite lower energy prices at election time, as if that was likely.
By contrast, the Financial Times turns the urgency dial up a notch in Financial Times Tipping point looms for global energy crisis:
Nearly 80 countries have now introduced emergency measures to protect their economies as the world approaches a new, more dangerous phase in the energy crisis driven by the Iran war.
Governments are stepping up their responses ahead of a looming tipping point, when traders warn that oil prices could jump again sharply unless more fuel trapped in the Gulf can be exported through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
Paul Diggle, chief economist at fund manager Aberdeen, said his team was now examining a scenario where Brent crude rockets to $180 a barrel, causing surging inflation and recessions in a host of European and Asian countries…
Demand for air conditioning and holiday travel at the start of the northern hemisphere’s summer will put further strain on supplies of crude oil, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, when global stocks are already falling at the fastest rate on record…
The International Energy Agency estimates that the number of countries that have already been forced into emergency measures has reached 76, up from 55 at the end of March.
Economists and traders warn the next phase of the crisis could bring another sharp jump in energy prices, broader fuel rationing, industrial shutdowns and a significant slowdown in global growth.
If the Middle East conflict “does not end in the coming weeks and we don’t have the reopening of the Hormuz strait, I’m afraid a world recession could be on the table”, the EU’s transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas told an FT conference in Athens on Thursday.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, the world has been existing beyond its energy means.
The IEA estimates that between March and June global oil consumption will run roughly 6mn barrels a day above production. Some analysts believe the shortfall could be closer to 8mn-9mn barrels a day…
More than 2mn barrels a day of emergency crude from strategic reserves are flowing into the system, but many of those releases are scheduled to end by July.
Global reserves have fallen by nearly 380mn barrels since the war began, the IEA said, excluding the inaccessible stocks trapped inside the Gulf.
….Most oil reserves, over 3bn barrels, are held by oil companies, traders and refineries, but the majority of this “inventory” is part of the system. Pipelines require minimum volumes to maintain pressure, refineries need continuous supplies and storage tanks cannot be fully drained without risking damage.
Markets would seize up well before inventories hit zero, said analysts…
JPMorgan estimates inventories among OECD countries could approach “operational stress levels” by early June….
Across large parts of the developing world, shortages are already apparent…
“An ‘escalation’ scenario — where oil prices surge through $150 a barrel — would mean physical shortages, supply chain disruption, and recessionary outcomes,” they said in a note this week.
Even local media are warning oil prices could rise to $140 to $180 a barrel levels:
Bloomberg described to panic buying by businesses in Global Inventory Race Intensifies in Shadow of the Iran War
The global rush to stockpile manufactured goods on fears of an energy-supply crunch will again overshadow business surveys in the coming week gauging the impact of a third month of war in the Middle East.
Among the purchasing manager indexes for May measuring industrial activity in key economies, all of those for which Bloomberg polls analysts are projected to show continued expansion, in many cases bolstered by front-loaded stockbuilding.
The question overshadowing the spate of numbers due from Australia to the US on Thursday will be the extent to which such a picture points to resilience, or is simply evidence of manufacturers running on fumes before the energy shock fully hits.
The indexes will also reveal how that cost impact is affecting major economies, while possibly hinting at the sort of supply logjams that production volatility caused during the pandemic.
And on one of our favorite topic, jet fuel shortages, CNBC takes note:
No one is spared! See Reuters in Rising diesel costs from Iran war strain US school budgets (hat tip Ann)
And a very fine account of the significance of a Department of Justice saddling up to poke around at a BlackRock credit fund that looks green at the gills. DoJ = criminal, since this is normally the SEC’s beat and one assumes the SEC must have made a criminal referral. Admittedly, even if there are charges (recall this is just at the investigation stage), they could wind up being merely civil, particularly if BlackRock is cooperative.
But as Jeff Snider describes long form, this probe legitimates valuation worries about private credit funds generally:
In comic relief of sorts, The Cradle picks up a Financial Times story (hat tip Kevin W) Trump’s $40bn Hormuz insurance scheme fails to cover a single ship: Report. Recall we had predicted its failure from the get-go:
Two months after US President Donald Trump announced a $40-billion scheme to provide insurance for vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, not a single dollar of coverage has been provided, the Financial Times (FT) reported on 18 May…
“But the up to $40bn program has not yet been used at all, two people familiar with its operations said, even as insurance rates have been stuck at multiples of their prewar levels,” FT wrote.
According to insurance brokers speaking with the British newspaper, Trump’s scheme failed because it could not meet all the requirements for ships transiting the strait and depended on the US Navy providing ongoing military escorts, which it was unable to do.
This post is already long, so apologies for leaving an important item to the very end. Sky News has done on-the-ground reporting from Minab on the US war crime perpetrated there. I hope you have time to watch their documentary and circulate it widely.
Done for now. See you tomorrow!
____
1 See the BBC landing page at around 5:00 AM EDT:
And the Wall Street Journal landing page at the same time:
The Bloomberg US landing page does give the latest Trump TACO prominent play:
2 Commodities maven Jeff Currie pointed out that even with Ansar Allah’s attacks on Red Sea shipping had dropped down greatly about two years ago (and the latest strikes were on Israel-bound vessels), traffic on that route was at 75% of former levels.
3 There were reports of denials by anonymous US officials, but this is dispositive:
The US Treasury Secretary says he’s calling ‘the world’ to join the US in imposing sanctions on Iran.
Scott Bessent was speaking as G7 finance ministers arrived in Paris for a two day meeting amid global economic turmoil. pic.twitter.com/M0ht5nDMps
— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 18, 2026
4 When Spain’s President Sanchez said he would not allow the US to use Spanish airbases in the Iran war, that the US could simply fly in and use them. See at 0:30:
So Wilkerson’s point is well taken.
5 Confirmation comes from Aljazeera, which has multiple entries today on how impossibly far apart the two sides are. An example from Aljazeera’s live blog:
Iran, US remain at loggerheads over key issues
There remains a significant difference in the positions of the negotiating parties.
In his latest address to the parliament’s National Security Commission, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran is not going to give up on its right to enrich uranium.
This is a sticking point, as the Americans have said in their proposals that the Iranians must stop enriching uranium for the next two decades.
Iran has rejected this, saying this period is too long.
Iran says the Americans must guarantee an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, before it will discuss its nuclear programme.
The Americans have refused to agree to this, saying it depends on the course of negotiations.
Iran has also asked the US to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US has said Iran must first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before it will do so.
Iran is also insisting on receiving reparations for war damage, which the Americans have firmly rejected.
Iran has asked that US forces withdraw from the region, particularly from the GCC countries, and that all the sanctions related to the nuclear file, human rights violations, “terrorism” sponsorship and so on be lifted, which the Americans have also not agreed to do.
5 Confirming Ambrose Bierce in his Devil’s Dictionary:
Alliance: In international politics, the union of two thieves who have their hands so deeply inserted in each other’s pockets that they cannot separately plunder a third.
I wouldn’t dignify the back and forth between the US and Iran as negotiations or even talks. It amounts to nothing more than an exchange of talking points designed only for public consumption or targeted at select audiences.
The notion that the US is talking with Iran greatly exaggerates the situation. Another, better framing would simply state that the US and Iran are talking at each other.
Personally I would call it Trump Administration posturing. But then everything I see says that Iran has been consistent on their terms That the change on their part that have occurred comes down to merely not playing along with the false pretense that ceasefires are real on all sides and the US has sent real negotiators to come to a table.
But then recognizing any reality that doesn’t conform to the Delusion of the Bubble has ceased to occur in Washington unless the Investor Class shouts it.
I think it’s Iran keeping them on the hook. It’s gotten them a prolonged break in the bombing and every day is a little closer to unavoidable economic disaster
The USA and Iran are talking to a wider audience rather than to each other, Iran to the World at large and the US to Mr Market.
Iran is playing the long game, Chess if you will.
The USA is playing pocket pool (Wanking), it has no coherent strategy.
‘This is a sticking point, as the Americans have said in their proposals that the Iranians must stop enriching uranium for the next two decades.’
That seemed to be a very specific number that. I mean 20 years. It seemed so odd coming from Trump who boasts that he is doing stuff that other Presidents have been putting off for decades – like attacking Iran. But then it occurred to me that this is Trump kicking the can down the road as he knows that he will not be here in twenty years time as he would be nearly a hundred years old by then. By then, it would be somebody else’s problem.
There has been talk that the on-its-face odd “20 years” timeline is the result of a need on Trump’s part to be able to say that he “got a better deal than Obama” did with the earlier agreement which Trump scrapped. I’m not entirely sure about that but it fits with a pattern of behavior.
If Iran were to agree to 20 years, Israel would take that as a sign of weakness and demand 50 years, SOP for how Israel “negotiates.” Trump would quickly follow suit.
Poison pills are an Israeli specialty. Similar Israeli “negotiating tactic:” “We won’t negotiate until they lay down their arms…OK now that they’ve stopped shooting at us, we see no need to negotiate!”
I think people forget, or never knew, that Iran is one of the largest manufactuers and exporters of radiopharmaceuticals.
Not that long ago they were the third largest in the world to include exports to the US. The last article I read on this just a month ago stated they were still in the Top Five, though I can’t find it at the moment.
It’s a profitable business for Iran and one of the few lines of business where they are not sanctioned, so why would they even consider for a moment to stop producing HEU? Particularly ALL enrichment for 20 years? No country is that stupid… Oh… wait…
https://www.neimagazine.com/news/iran-ranks-high-in-radiopharmaceuticals/
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Q: Any updates on that video over the weekend of a giant explosion at a military base in Israel? A fake? None of the Napolitano stable has passed comment one way or the other.
The Zionist claim of it being ‘pre-planned’ was very V for Vendetta like, when in the movie V blows up the Old Bailey and the press claims it was ‘ore-planned’ too.
Yes, that’s an admission it happened and could not be covered up.
At best, a very bad accident that detonated something large.
try 3 (if one of the others go through, please delete this one):
I have no idea if this is true, especially because it isn’t being recirculated, but maybe Iran is taking credit for the event indirectly:
RothLindberg/status/2055764057072738778
Add to this previous reports that Iran had destroyed Israel’s drone manufacturing plant in April, and you would think that Israel would be far more reluctant about restarting the attacks than Iran would be… (assuming any of this is true at all, of course)
In that case, even false flags are off the table
I’m looking at that gap between oil supply and demand. If we had sane policy, we’d be talking about conservation. The cretins in Congress have done zilch to promote conservation. Instead, they’re pushing the pedal to the floor, with talk of suspending the federal gas tax.
Here are some things we should be doing, if we weren’t ruled by corrupt lunatics:
1. Encouraging remote work for all who can;
2. Subsidizing mass transit;
3. Cutting short-haul flights (Lufthansa did this)
4. Keeping gas taxes in place to discourage over consumption
I take it that because the economy has late-stage financialized cancer, doing such things would kick over too many rice bowls. So it’s a game of “kick the can and loot while you can.”
I was hiking hut-to-hut in the French Alps when 9/11 happened, and I get the sneaky feeling that something wicked this way comes when i’m in Europe again.
When we arrived back @ LAX in late September after 9/11, we were greeted with plastic old glorys furiously waving out of window jambs on every other jalopy on the 405, patriotism being the first refuge for many a scoundrel.
It’s the same here in South Korea and I’m dismayed. They’re even handing out check this week to the population, in order to help us relieve the burden of higher gas prices (which they’ve so far artificially suppressed with subsidies).
They really really want everyone to go out and just keeping spending money like nothing is wrong. Why aren’t we conserving??? Unlike the US, Korea has the public infrastructure and population density to handle fuel rationing and other measures.
Last night as I was lying on a bag of ice waiting for the percocet to kick in I asked myself what Iran could do short of destroying the rest of the Gulf’s infrastructure?
There’s damaging a carrier, towing one of those babies back to the USA would be a nightmare.
There’s using something like Stuxnet to destroy the pumps that send water through the the Tehachapi’s to southern California.
And there’s doing something that would pop the AI bubble, Mr Market is already somewhat nervous what with the Trump YoYo almost every weekend.
There are Data centers in the Mideast and those data cables under the Gulf, spooking the market with a plausible threat after destroying those might do the job.
It’s going to be a lively summer in any event.
Sorry that you were in so much pain!
Thank you Yves, a pinched nerve in the neck that has not responded to epidurals.
I have effectively lost the use of my right arm, which is awkward.
Tore up from the floor up but I still enjoy the beauty of the day.
the takeaway here is that Iran is willing to consider no enrichment over a shorter period, say five years. That would already be an undeserved compromise. Trump should seize on it and declare victory.
The original JCPOA agreed on a 15 year limit of enrichment limitations which was not a bad deal. But in negotiations a coupla months ago, Iran offered to make those enrichment limitations permanent which was a very major concession on Iran’s part. About two days later Trump attacked them. The Iranians will never offer such a generous concession ever again.
Surely a vote of thanks to Richard Medhurst, who noted how bad the damage done to US bases was, long before the western MSM reluctantly admitted it? His videos on this really opened my eyes…
Yes!
Trump said last week that the US’ lower 95% upcoming economic suffering is worth it so that IDF/Likud does not have to worry that a nuclear Iran might stop their genocides.
Fascinating that the liberal press has better strategic intelligence (what Trump is complaining) on Iran than the MIC pandering establishment.
If the Lloyds are not assured by…………..
Maybe Trump should have put back some of the crude Biden released from SPR, he has had over a year!
Well, he’s not economically suffering economically from the war, is he? The war is worth it to him.
Trump is just following neolib principals. Short term cost to fill reserve is not worth the possible long term benefit of insurance. Never invest for the future because it hurts this q bottom line.
China has foolishly been stockpiling oil in total violation of modern financial principles.
Following “neolib principals” [vs] …violating “modern financial principles”: I saw what you did there. Touché!
Yves: footnote one is not contained within the text but is retained as a footnote. There are two footnote fives.
Thanks for all of your excellent reporting and hard work each and every day for our benefit!!
Oops, I spoke too soon. Footnote one is there, it’s just out of order.
‘Al Jazeera Breaking News
@AJENews
The US Treasury Secretary says he’s calling ‘the world’ to join the US in imposing sanctions on Iran.
Scott Bessent was speaking as G7 finance ministers arrived in Paris for a two day meeting amid global economic turmoil.’
Is the G7 even relevant anymore? Most of its members are just European ones who have struggling economies.The world is not going to up sanctions against Iran as they are too busy dealing with the ongoing damage cause by the US/Israeli attack on Iran. Lots of replies to this tweet said the world should be instead sanctioning the US and Israel instead for everything that they are doing. Turns out that when the public face of the Iran war is Donald J. Trump, that there is not enough lipstick to make it look any better.
RE: “…the world should be instead sanctioning the US…”
When the US sanctions and places tariffs on so many other countries, it is essentially sanctioning itself, while the rest continue to trade amongst themselves. At some point there no need for the rest of the world to sanction the US – when your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt!
lipstick….the affordable luxury of the marginalized.
But when observed inopportunely on the male/white collar, and one is accustomed/entitled to bludgeoning one’s approach to life utilizing fiction and fallacy….cheap thrill’s notwithstanding…one’s dependency on such an mo becomes progressively self-enabling. The costs incurred incidental.
We will know that the G7 is completely irrelevant when the UK finally inaugurates Orwell’s Ministry of Plenty.
I give it 6 months, max
Bluff and counter bluff?
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-10000km-icbm-test-us-strike-capability/
Would T risk it? Would Isr. ?
Would KSA and other gulf states OK USAF overflights to bomb Iran when Iran has made good its threat to bomb any gulf state that allows said overflights?
TORTAS & the hair furor = Trump Often Resorts To Asinine Suggestions
I sense a latino foods flair to the Orange Haired Devil acronyms.
TACO is obvious to those of us unlucky enough to have had to “run for the bathroom” after ingesting Taco Bell.
TORTAS is appropriate fare for a Naked Lunch.
I’m throwing in this “new” one, FLAN. (F—ing Lame American Negotiations.)
Also, for whom exactly is Scott Bezant doing a solidus?
Washington might consider hiring Auric Goldfinger to run the Treasury Department. He at least came up through the School of Hard Knox.
He’s a clear and Bessent danger, but has a winning smile and that goes a long way.
His favourite dish is TOFU = Trump Only F!cks Up.
But I agree there is a prevalence of Mexican food here with all the TACO, TAPAS, TORTAS, TAMALE — but also TUNA.
Trump might do a quick bombing of Iran and wind this one down.
Onto Cuba to remove the stain of defeat!
Cuba Libre!
Or maybe Greenland instead. They don’t have a military that can shoot back. And Trump cannot afford a Bay of Pigs 2.0 right now.
T is making noises that he has to have Greenland – without asking Greenland’s permission – in order to protect Europe from the big bad bear. That’s the pitch.
If I’m a wagering man, which I’m not unless my friends are playing and destined therefore to let me and my wallet down, Trump does Cuba rather than Greenland. Evidence for this point:
1. There yet exist proper Trump-whisperers in Europe, eg. Stubb, who have a near fanatical interest in NATO stability so they can keep the US involved at least somehow in perpetuating the Ukraine (and perhaps soon Transnistria?) affair.
2. Marco Rubio seems to have ascended to the closest thing Trump has to an eminence grise on foreign policy (it’s certainly not Vance, and based on Trump’s reticence to escalate kinetically, it probably isn’t the spittle-soaked lips of the various Israeli agents at the moment). “The Blond” obviously, desperately, wants to do Cuba.
3. There’s rather less of an imprimatur of absolutely soulless bullying with Cuba (even though that’s what it would be, of course). Cuba has been adversarial to America long enough that the portion of Trump’s base which is of a certain age – and has yet to shift their media diet to the organic alternatives you and I prefer – will perceive a Cuba do as finally a triumph of truthjusticeandtheAmericanwayetc over vestigial and vaguely necrotic organs of the Soviet Union.
Also, speaking of eminences grise, haven’t heard much from Miller recently. Domestic American politics seem very horse-race focused at the moment. That aside, it’ll be Cuba. Don’t bet the house on it though.
I don’t think the Fed and finance types will ever get that fiddling with interest rates can’t create supply. It’s pointless. If we were talking about demand-pull inflation, sure play with rates if you must, but we just don’t see that kind of thing — inflation is almost always a *supply* issue and you can set rates at 1000% but it’s not going to make more oil/eggs/houses.
>you can set rates at 1000% but it’s not going to make more oil/eggs/houses.
Defacto getting rid of mortgages and forcing people to buy houses in cash would absolutely lower the price of houses. Just look at house to income ratios in the 30s and 40s before the government started subsidizing mortgages
Non financed goods – sure, no issue with your statement
When the supply is limited, it doesn’t matter. I think over 30% of home purchases in my state are being made with cash. Prices continue to rise.
Even if I were to agree with your statement, eliminating mortgages (raising rates) doesn’t create more housing, which was my point.
Cash buyers are nearly always vulture funds and rental corps. That’s what 2008 was for – to pull the best source of wealth the middle class has away from them. This is just another phase of the steal, hence the lack of a drop.
When the next crash comes, it will be massive.
The point of high rates is to raise unemployment and cut demand for the commodity… fed is usually too impatient to wait for ‘the cure for high (oil) price is high oil price’.
Imo The fed has caused most us recessions since at least ww2.
But with Warsh as fed chairman and Powell chair at OMC we might see a frozen fed.
Bibi you got to let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
If you say that you are mine
I’ll be here ’til the end of time
So you got to let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
It’s always tease tease tease
You’re happy when I’m on my knees
One day is fine and next is black
So if you want me off your back
Well come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
This indecision’s buggin’ me (esta indecisión me molesta)
If you don’t want me, set me free (Si no me quieres, librame)
Exactly whom I’m supposed to be (Dime! ¿Qué tengo ser?)
Don’t you know the emperors new clothes fit me? (No sabes que ropas me queda)
Come on and let me know (Pero tienes que decir)
Should I cool it or should I blow? (¿Me debo ir o quedarme?)
Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I Stay or Should I Go?, by the Clash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM&list=RDBN1WwnEDWAM
This is quite good as well as crazy. Do we all depend on this individual who has already gone well beyond his possibilities and dragging us all into an epic crisis? Do we have to ask him? Netanyahoo is like the tyres of a truck that got stuck in the beach or desert sand. Our only way out of this mess is to deflate Netanyahoo… er… the tyres.
I would say the same thing about Trump. I get that the empty husk of Constitutional law is said by some to be a constraint, but it has been a constant now for many years that constitutional protections are not for the “little people”.
While at the same time people promote nah-gah-happen solutions like the 25th Amendment for Trump’s madness. It takes at least one cabinet officer to invoke the 25th in the first place. There are other, more drastic yet still constitutional means to remove both Trump and his merry band of Zionists. Like Article III Section 3
Yet the Constitution remains an empty husk except when it comes to protecting the powerful and venal. Maybe Trump’s administration needs the Ceaușescu solution.
If you’re looking for something drastic but directly to the point, how about § 21–541 of the DC Code?
Hair Furor …love it. Sound and furor signifying desperation?
Iran has made it clear it will go scorched earth in against the GCC, hence #TACO.
Trump is trapped. All is he can do is either cave to Israel and attack Iran, which will lead to the GCC being destroyed, or do nothing but be a fly in the ointment outside the Strait while the lack of oil shipments chokes the global economy. Of course, he has another choice, which is to call forces back from the region, but that is a bridge to far for a narcissist in the grips of dementia. Maybe going hard on Cuba will suffice as a “win”, but that does not fix the petrochem supply chain. He’ll want to do something big either way, and his chaotic mind and sociopath minders remain utterly unpredictable.
I pray that what happens is what often does in somewhat similar cases when a situation like this ceasefire, this sort of stalemate with two sides circling, undecided, for long enough. The whole drama, intense as it is, starts to fade away. Eventually, everyone goes home or otherwise life goes on. I know this is wishful thinking, but it’s a possibility, and what I’m praying for. For one thing, Trump has to know that his legacy here, such as it is, is in imminent danger, doesn’t he? Netanyahu and Israel must understand that they’re in danger of being just erased, don’t they?
That scenario won’t work here. The world’s economy can’t take an endless closure of the Strait.
Xi Jinping Told Donald Trump That Vladimir Putin Might Regret The Ukraine Invasion: Report
https://www.news18.com/amp/world/xi-jinping-told-donald-trump-that-vladimir-putin-might-regret-the-ukraine-invasion-report-ws-l-10099097.html
Xi Jinping told Trump that Putin may “regret” invasion of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/19/8035332/
Putin says Russia, China ready to back each other on issues such as protecting sovereignty
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/putin-says-russia-china-ready-back-each-other-issues-such-protecting-sovereignty-2026-05-19/
Russia holds massive drills of its nuclear forces
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia/russia-conducts-major-nuclear-drills-rcna345828
RE: Putin’s potential regrets
“As per the report citing people familiar with the US assessment of last week’s summit in Beijing, the Chinese leader made the remarks…”
So anonymous US sources, and not corroborated by China. But this couldn’t just be propaganda transparently designed to put a wedge in the Russia/China relationship…
Denied by Chinese ministry
But this couldn’t just be propaganda…
———————————————————————————————
Nope. It’s confirmed by Ukrainska Pravda (Ann’s 2nd link), citing the Financial Times , which in turn cites “several people familiar with the US assessment of last week’s summit in Beijing.”
Sibiriak
So, it was confirmed by Ukrainska Pravda, a perfectly reliable Ukrainian medium, citing but not quoting, Financial Times, a so-called financial paper, but with close contacts with MI6 and it’s 2nd cousin CIA. They, cited their perfectly unbiased information from another group on perfectly unbiased “several people” familiar with the US assessment of the Beijing summit. I suppose those assessors got their information by Donald Trump whispering it into their ears one-by-one followed by the promise not to reveal it to anyone. Isn’t that the way it’s usually done?
I very much like Currie’s distinction between the people whose hands are dirty from oil deals and what he calls the financial types who seem to believe that we aren’t going to see shortages because the Hormuz closure is kind of financial problem that can be solved by the Fed acting properly. I believe this is something that goes well beyond the financial types and that that we are watching very delusional thinking by the Western Professional Managerial Castes in general, including those in Politics, MSM, and most economic sectors, except may be those who can be counted as canaries in the mine and noticing first the shortages. These are types unable to come to grips with the situation that has been created with the attacks on Iran and the closure of Hormuz. If so, IMO, influential types should be providing Netanyahoo with clear signs that his posture is unsustainable and cannot be tolerated any longer.
Yes, practical experience matters.
No book smart numismatist ever bought or sold aged round metal discs~
When occasionally i’d encounter the likes of them in pursuit of quarry, I could run circles around ’em, old metal circles that is.
Re: DoJ and BlackRock.
For some reason, this story brings back memories of another time. (Not saying it’s the same thing. Just tweaked a memory.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sYk_dbFIOs
(good comments on the utube clip. / ;)
The crooked E
nron.Interesting how an editor managed to stick in the word “alleged” to the title of the Sky News report, when the reporter says unequivocally that it was hit by “precision guided American missiles”:
“Sky News reports from Iranian school hit by alleged US strike”
Ruble Tops Global Currencies as Putin Reaps Iran War Oil
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-19/ruble-tops-global-currencies-as-putin-reaps-iran-war-oil-gain-usd-rub
Russians covertly trained by China return to fight in Ukraine, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russians-covertly-trained-by-china-return-fight-ukraine-sources-say-2026-05-19/
Japan, China lead foreign government retreat from U.S. Treasurys as Gulf War fallout stokes currency fears
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/central-banks-offload-us-treasuries-china-holdings-at-18-year-low.html
Knesset panel fast-tracks West Bank antiquities bill seen as de facto annexation
https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-panel-fast-tracks-west-bank-antiquities-bill-seen-as-de-facto-annexation/
Smotrich orders evacuation of Palestinian village after reports of ICC arrest warrant against him
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-896677
Kenya paralyzed by deadly protests, strikes due to fuel cost: The African country is among many dependent on fuel imports from the Gulf. Last week, authorities in the country hiked fuel prices by 23.5%
https://www.dw.com/en/kenya-fuel-protests-turn-deadly-amid-iran-war-disruptions/a-77202954
Australia’s farmers, hit by Iran war costs and dry weather, grow less wheat
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/australias-farmers-hit-by-iran-war-costs-dry-weather-grow-less-wheat-2026-05-18/
China’s ‘dark factory’ more than doubles production efficiency for J-20 jets – The plant producing fifth-generation warplanes is designed to operate with little to no human involvement
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3353253/chinas-dark-factory-more-doubles-production-efficiency-j-20-jets
What the hell is that Financial Times chart showing Global oil supply? It shows oil supply dropping like a rock after the Iran war began. Fair enough. But then their forecast shows oil supply skyrocketing until by October it is at the same level just before the are began. Is the Financial Times so in the hole that they are making it up as they go along? That they think that a miracle will occur? The world will be lucky if that chart shows oil supply simply flat lining.
I remember Trump on live TV extrapolating the path of a hurricane through Florida using a sharpie. It looks like the Financial Times has now hired Trump to do the same thing with other types of graphs.
Inventing a favorable future is always quick and easy to do, especially if you control a huge information system.
One of the real tragedies now is that it’s impossible to take any enjoyment from the US president’s ridiculous antics, since the consequences are so horrific. Hopefully future readers of history tomes, seeing everything from a safe distance, will really get a kick out of this historical period, and will be asking “did this actually happen, Grandma?”
Václav Havel
Thanks for this.
It’s all Maya.
A heads-up for those in the New York area: Verso is launching their New York office with this presentation. Abrahamian is one of the better lefty writers on Iran, having covered it from the shah’s overthrow onward.
It’s possible that Trump is telling the truth and that SA, UAE, and Qatar indeed wanted Trump to hold off on an Iran attack. It’s also possible there is a lot more going on and these countries are angry. After all, Trump has put himself in the center of everything while the war he launched with Israel, without any discussion with the GCC states, has turned their countries into a war zone.
Moreover, not only does Trump dominate the negotiations, only non-diplomats Dumb and Dumber are sent to Pakistan while Netanyahu is kept informed.
From Sharjah 24 – WAM 5/26/26: Jasem Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), stressed the necessity of involving GCC member states in any talks or agreements aimed at resolving the regional crisis.
In a media briefing on the Iranian attacks, Albudaiwi stated that over a period of 25 days, Iran launched more than 5,000 ballistic missiles and UAVs targeting GCC countries. He noted that 85% of the missiles launched during the conflict were directed at GCC states.
https://sharjah24.ae/en/Articles/2026/03/26/GCC-Chief-calls-for-member-involvement-in-crisis-talks
Perhaps these countries are fed up with Trump. These events will shape the future environment of the region and the GCC doesn’t even have a seat at the table. There might be more changes in store that Trump doesn’t expect.
Do you suppose the GCC countries might be angry enough to withdraw the billions in sovereign wealth funds they’ve invested with Jared Kushner? That sort of personal financial threat would get T’s attention.
> Do you suppose the GCC countries might be angry enough to withdraw the billions in sovereign wealth funds they’ve invested with Jared Kushner?
Ooooh, that’s a saucy take! Would love it to be true!
My gut tells me this is a psyop. Trump attacks over Memorial Day weekend, Iran retaliates by pounding GCC, Trump cries, “Oh the evil Iranians beating up on the poor peaceful GCC countries, who begged me not to attack, who wouldn’t let me use their air space, what cads. Bibi was right, there is no dealing with these devils other than force.”
Followed by KSA, Qatar, and others pulling their sovereign wealth funds out of the US? It could happen…. as long as we’re speculating. / ;)
“Followed by KSA, Qatar, and others pulling their sovereign wealth funds out of the US?”
And putting the money where afterwards?
Russia? They’re the big winner of this war. Ruble already rising.
But pulling that money out of the us in the first place… not clear to me us will allow that. Iraq and Iran can’t.
That’s one country that could work, although I don’t know how happy the Russians would be to absorb the entire amount.
As for the US allowing it–who knows. The problems that would arise from it trying to stop it would be pretty large. But also, if the US truly wants to cut its trade deficits, you would think that it would encourage rather than discourage the move, all things being equal (which, of course, they are not)
There are hints in the financial press that China is starting to be seen as a safer haven than the US. T-bills are no longer seen as the ultimate, worldwide safe haven.
From CNBC:
China built resilience to an energy shock — it’s paid off for Chinese assets amid the Iran war
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/chinese-assets-become-conflict-safe-haven-after-bolstering-resilience-.html
I don’t think China would allow countries to buy its bonds in significant quantities–definitely not graciously–and it doesn’t need the money for development.
And I don’t think other countries are big enough to absorb those flows quickly–maybe a basket of counties including Russia, etc. would accept it, but I don’t think the GCC countries can diversify too much out of the US.
I could be wrong, but I think that cash is more or less “trapped” for lack of places to go.
adding: all things being equal, which of course they are not, the US would not have politicians and an admin who still think it is 1985. ….sigh….
Iran and Iraq can’t pull their money out of the US too easily. Because
Iran and Iraq are under sanctions.
I don’t see the US sanctioning KSA and the rest of the GCC countries.
(Although, this admin is just short-sighted enough …./ ;)
Three things argue against it:
1. Trump and his family have vasty more exposure to the Gulf States than Israel
2. His planned Gaza and limping Board of Peace grifts also go poof when Iran vaporizes Israel in its retaliation
3. MbS. although he has a smaller span of control than Trump, is much more ruthless personally, see the bonesawing of Khashoggi and his incarceration of Saudi elites in the Ritz Carlton to successfully shake them down as examples.
“2. His planned Gaza and limping Board of Peace grifts also go poof when Iran vaporizes Israel in its retaliation”
I am honestly not being ironic when I say that this guy has so many grifts going on at once that I don’t know how he manages to keep them all going–I can barely keep two projects running in my head at the same time!
> is much more ruthless personally, see the bonesawing of Khashoggi and his incarceration of Saudi elites in the Ritz Carlton to successfully shake them down as examples
… think neither Kushner nor Witkoff should find themselves in a Saudi embassy any time soon.
Maybe, but given the impact your scenario would have on oil supplies, the rhetoric and media spin and even righteous blame no longer matter.
In fact, as stockpile depletion continues, even increasingly *small* supply disruptions will force disproportionately large changes to everyday world activities (and, of course, prices). The US will soon be unable to do anything even remotely threatening to Iran without committing global economic suicide–not even credible jawboning type threats.
And soon after that, the US will be forced to be accommodating–meaning that the US’ ability to simply declare an embarrassing loss and go home while maintaining its status quo coercive policies will become increasingly untenable.
Trump really F!@#ed this one up royally.
In the first instance, Trump would have never started this war if he had a brain in his head. He started the war, ergo, he doesn’t have a brain in his head. I don’t know that he cares about the global economy, or even understands the economic impact of what he is doing. Further, he is surrounded by people telling him b.s. and how great everything is going, so between the dementia and the yes-men, he is living in a virtual reality studio set, not the real world.
Trump is too much of a narcissist to take the “L” and I think there is a chain around his neck connected to Israel, who clearly wants Armageddon. His only move left is to escalate, even though it will make everything worse, not better. I’m sure someone is whispering in his ear how escalation will lead to a decisive victory over Iran right now. Maybe, just maybe, he has too much invested in the GCC and on the line to pull the trigger, but if anything holds him back, it would be his personal financial stake in the Gulf. . . and even here, I don’t know how he manages the blow-back from Israel and the Lobby.
For sure, Israel has a chain connected around Trump’s something, but it’s not his neck.
Well, attacking Iran was definitely a stupid decision, but it is very clear that Trump is trying to somehow get out now. At the moment he is trying to do so while saving face; one more attack (and I agree with you that it is likely to happen), and he won’t be able to save face. Similarly, though, even if the status quo continues for another few weeks, he won’t be able to save face
Israel is really an interesting question mark here (at least for my little brain)–a decisive US defeat would put Israel in a **really** bad place, especially if the US has to concede across the board on Iran’s demands and has little to no leverage in the process. You would think that Israel would be even more scared of renewed escalation than the US. And yet…
I think you underestimate the possibility that Trump might believe the only way to save face is to launch a massive attack and then leave, claiming victory.
The problem when dealing with an insane person is that it is impossible to predict what they view as rational.
TOFU …trump often f—-s up. The man ain’t real, he’s fake, fake, fake.
Maybe trump isn’t, in the end, a man, but rather an idea, a way of creating life from bluster, fulfillment from resentment, and reality from deception. And so many have bought into it, that this is not the best of all possible worlds, but only one of many possibilities.
He sure acts like the bovine excrement golem.
I’d immediately think how completely reckless the President is in attacking, despite the pleas of the GCC countries, when Iran could not be plainer in saying it would carry out such an attack. (But such conclusions would probably have no bearing on anything Trump might say.)
Every now and then, I click over to the House of Saud site. Keeping in mind that during war everybody is trying to control the spin, the reports often discuss the Saudi dual track messaging and what they hope to achieve. They are also very clear about the economic tightrope they are walking, what investments are at risk, the energy price points they need, etc…
Here’s one example of some views on security agreements with Pakistan:
https://houseofsaud.com/pakistan-smda-deployment-saudi/
Pakistan Deploys 8,000 Troops and Chinese Missiles to Saudi Arabia
Thank you very much for this.
I notice:
“The deployment fills a gap that $142 billion in American weapons sales did not. Saudi Arabia’s own air defenses have been degraded since February — PAC-3 interceptor stocks stand at roughly 400 rounds, approximately 14 percent of pre-war inventory, according to assessments compiled for HOS reporting on Saudi Arabia’s Hajj-season defense posture. The HQ-9 adds a layer Riyadh could not source from Washington on this timeline, and its Chinese origin means the system arrived outside US export-control and congressional-notification requirements entirely.”
and
“The gambit is that Pakistan can maintain deterrence credibility with Riyadh while preserving mediator credibility with Tehran — two roles that require opposite signals sent from the same capital. The public liability MBS accepted on May 18 — named by Trump on Truth Social as one of three leaders who personally asked him to stand down a scheduled Iran strike — adds a third signal Pakistan must now reconcile: its treaty partner is not only hosting Pakistani forces but has publicly attached his name to the diplomatic restraint that delayed the very operation those forces exist to defend against.”
and
“The financial architecture means Pakistan’s ceasefire diplomacy, its defense obligations, and its fiscal survival all run through Riyadh. The $5 billion arrived the same month Pakistan brokered ceasefire terms between the security architecture MBS is building and the country that architecture is designed to contain. Munir’s March trip to the Saudi capital was the operational planning session for a deployment that the same financial lifeline made impossible to refuse.”
CENTCOM chief says Iran school was on active missile site
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605199142
Bessent urges G7 to help U.S. attack Iran’s finances
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/bessent-g7-iran-finance-terrorism.html
Congress Wants You To Pay $130 A Year Just To Drive An Electric Car
https://insideevs.com/news/796222/ev-fee-gas-tax-house-bill-2026/
‘The Worst Leak That I’ve Witnessed’: U.S. Cybersecurity Agency Leaves Its Digital Keys Out in Public on GitHub
https://gizmodo.com/the-worst-leak-that-ive-witnessed-u-s-cybersecurity-agency-leaves-its-digital-keys-out-in-public-on-github-2000760330
Trump’s Own Handpicked Lawyer Quits Treasury in Disgust at Massive $1.8B Grift
https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-treasury-lawyer-quits-in-disgust-over-donald-trumps-massive-18b-theft/
Why Trump’s stock trades are so exceptionally corrupt
https://www.ms.now/opinion/trump-stock-trades-corruption-slush-fund
Trump officials plan to repeal limits on ‘forever chemicals’ in drinking water
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-administration-epa-pfas-water
UAE says it engaged six drones in past 48 hours
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605195600
A Texas Drainage District Walked Its Ditch on a Routine Inspection. They Found a Pipe They Didn’t Recognize Discharging Black Liquid From Tesla’s $1 Billion Lithium Refinery
https://www.autonocion.com/us/tesla-lithium-refinery-texas/
If you haven’t seen Jim Cramer’s response to Trump’s stock trades, you ought to watch. If the country goes hardcore fascist, it does with maybe not corporate consent but surely with corporate silence or Cramer-like blubbering.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uU9AHtRSdZk
Re: centcoms claim about the Minab school, Larry Johnson pretty convincingly shredded those claims at the time. Basically, even if that was the case, due diligence in the targeting would have shown that there had been a change in the scenario and the intel they had was now old. Very common practice for Larry, as I remember it, it’s what he did for the CIA when he worked there. CENTCOM is full of shit.
If you were taking out a missile site, why would you do a triple tap strike? You’d just pound the target once. Second, if you checked on the results, and you wanted to hit the site again, then it would be evident that you were hitting the prayer room in a girl’s school, not missile site. Their peeing on our leg again and telling us its raining.
Why do financial analysts keep using the word “recession” in their forecasts and avoiding the word “depression”? Because I think the latter term may describe the more likely consequences of all this f***ing around for Greater Israel’s sake. I have seen a couple of non-finance-focused sites talking about a possible Greater Depression, but the supposed experts all seem to be regarding this as just a mild disruption in the making. Is the world somehow antifragile now as opposed to how it was in 1929? It feels like the opposite.
Four score and 17 years ago the world was hardly connected financially, but that was then and this is now.
Been thinking about that lately, too. It really is about BBD.
No, not Bel Biv DeVoe, the Big Beautiful Depression.
The Great Depression probably seemed like a mild disruption too. At first.
Interesting claim, would imply KSA is playing both sides – which they might be.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/-israel–claims-alternative-energy-routes-through-saudi-arab
Egypt would seem the more brotherly option.
In either case, might take a long time getting built, if at all.
Dimitri Lascaris has a video he just put out detailing the proposed plan at a Greek energy conference. It explains why Israel and Greece have had such an interesting relationship, the pipeline would go from UAE, into Saudi, through Israel, then Cyprus, then Greece, then into all of Europe and North Africa
With no real bargaining space (as Mearsheimer calls it) between the US and Iran, it may look to Trump like the only move he HAS is to escalate/re-initiate. We could soon have a hotted-up Ukraine-Russia, Cuba, and Iran messes on our hands, simultaneously.
All it will take is a misstep–a serious open and spectacular one, in which (say) 150 young American men and/or woman soldiers die–to spark a Carter-like collapse in Trump’s legitimacy. . . OR bring us closer to nukes and internal civil war/curfews/a declaration of national emergency and martial law. . . still greater ugliness. I don’t like any of the options here.
There’s an argument to make that the global triple crisis, of contradictory capitalism, of our relationship with nature, and failed politics and rationale for the status quo in the first two (I guess that I define this differently as an ecologist than some others do) has together pushed us toward collapse more quickly than might have been anticipated (I’ve always said the 2040s), but. . .
The biggest hope I see, and it’s fairly real (?) is that Trump is so thoroughly chastened by the November elections that he’s defanged; the Rs really do start to treat him as a lame duck and modulate. Lots of alt. scenarios, though.
“With no real bargaining space (as Mearsheimer calls it) between the US and Iran, it may look to Trump like the only move he HAS is to escalate/re-initiate.”
I think Mearsheimer is right on this; my quibble on his position is that he underestimates how much Iran is pushing for this, I think.
Whether it is because of the previous attack itself or whether it is because a new set of people are in charge, Iran is very clearly not going to take any crap from the West (inc. Israel) anymore and is spoiling for a fight. This is one reason Trump’s bellicose rhetoric must me plying them with daily laughter.
The really interesting part of this (to me, anyway) is that Iran knows that if the US/Israel begin bombing, the campaign will be extremely intense–the fact that they continuously dare the US to do this gives you a good idea as to how strong of a hand the Iranians believe they have. I guess we will see why they believe this soon enough; my personal guess is that Israel is going to see an exodus of epic proportions in response, but that’s just a guess on my part.
(as an aside, if this does happen, Iran will have pulled off a PR coup in the Middle East that will drive what’s left of the GCC rulers absolutely insane)
40 days of US and IDF giving Iran all it had, and Iran not only did not surrender but is aching for a rematch!
US method of aerial bombing use safe for launcher, long range precision weapons which necessarily have small bang.
It should be noted big bang and more big bang have quality…
Unless your target country is small.not dug in and has few high value targets.
US has proved it can only fight small close countries.
Sadly Trump 47 is not being told Iran is dumping the world economy.
“Theatrical micro-militarism,” as someone at the late Col. Pat Lang’s place characterized it 10-15 years ago.
But we’re seeing evidence that the Gulf regimes are not suicidal, so the US and Israel will need to do this in an environment that is more operationally limiting. So hopefully we won’t get the mass destruction of Gulf infrastructure that means an intensive global depression from lack of energy resources that can’t be repaired for years if ever.
Yes, very interesting question whether we the US can continue to use our own bases under circumstances of renewed belligerence. Is yes, Iran bombs them. If no, Iran is less threatened and Israel and US ships, quite possible, more vulnerable.
A ship’s crew risked the Strait of Hormuz. They met with a hail of bullets.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/19/inside-an-iranian-attack-cargo-ship-strait-hormuz/
or https://archive.ph/aUZjD
Curious if anybody has seriously mapped out what happens to Iran 10 years from now when all of its neighbors, near-neighbors, and distant neighbors all have missiles that can hit it.
And what Iran needs to do between now and then to ensure its own security.
I have some thoughts, but they are a bit muddled and contradictory…
But it’s MAD; Whatever Iran gets, it can give as good. We’re still staring down the fact that destruction of a few key desalinization plants and that’s it for survivability in the Gulf. So I don’t think it much matters if other countries in the region build up similar capabilities. And we have more evidence that interceptors as a missile shield are a fantasy.
I agree–but system stability becomes much more brittle (which is your point). Within 10 years ,though, Iran benefits from stability and is disproportionately impacted by instability (the asymmetries work against it instead of for it).
Just curious about the implications…
my hopium haze involves kicking the usa out of the region(already happened, to a large extent, but we’re still drunk the next mornin,and dont realise it, yet), israel either becoming a shia colony, ceasing to exist, or becoming defanged in some other unforseeable manner.(ive long held that the holy land would be better as either belonging to the whole world(put the UN HQ there, etc) or as a wasteland, belonging to God, alone)..and all these Islamic places finally getting their shit together…restarting the Ummah, but with pluralistic features between sects(ive seen islamic scholarship on this, and my palestinian buddies, back in the day, spoke along those line)…and taking control of their own destiny, free of the western devils, at last.
Huh? That was the situation for years via US bases and air power.
Exactly.
Also, if the opposing missiles can’t hit anything important, what does it matter if you’re surrounded? I would hope it has become clear exactly how wrong assumptions of US/NATO/Israeli supremacy are at this moment. That’s not saying the current status is static. That’s not saying things can’t change and US aligned tech won’t improve. But right now, short of a nuke, we’ve got nothing in terms of tech, and almost quite likiterally nothing in terms of materiel. Speculation regarding what will happen when more countries are sharing in the same conditions is not useful.
When Spain’s President Sanchez said he would not allow the US to use Spanish airbases in the Iran war, Trump suggests that the US could simply fly in and use them.
As Yves noted, Col. Wilkinson suggested this could happen but he was referring to the use of Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia. The US could quite likely pull this off.
Trump is proposing invading a NATO country. Probably just Trump bloviating as usual but so far he has threatened to annex Greenland, turn Canada into the 51st state, and, now, to invade Spain. NATO may need to consider invoking Article 5 to get rid of him just as one shoots a rabid dog.
He really is mad.
No, Trump is not insane or out of his mind. He is lucid and acting on the understanding the US and our presidents have had for years. He is only doing it without a mask. Trump is feral. He is nakedly pursuing his interests. Those interests align perfectly with Israel and other allies wishes. NATO as an organization is the dog the US whips when it feels like it. Trump is just acting like he has the whip in his hand.
So invading a NATO ally while fighting a war in the Gulf, a losing proxy war in Ukraine, and mucking around in South America is sane?
NATO as an organization is the dog the US whips when it feels like it. Trump is just acting like he has the whip in his hand.
The problem is that dogs can turn on you. And the USA is doing so well in the Gulf that Spain just might. I doubt that even someone as supine as Merz in Germany would tolerate an invasion of an EU member and the rest of NATO would not be impressed.
My understanding is that the USA has few actual combat troops in Europe, most of the troops are logistics, medical and other support types. Presto, the nearest US base is suddenly in Florida or Israel.
Republican Sen. Josh Hawley says he favors a stock-trading ban that applies to presidents
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/republican-sen-josh-hawley-stock-trading-ban-presidents-rcna345933
Auto industry braces for motor oil shortage
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/19/business/motor-oil-shortage-prices-iran
Iran demands Big Tech pay fees for undersea Internet cables in Strait of Hormuz
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/iran-demands-big-tech-pay-fees-for-undersea-internet-cables-in-strait-of-hormuz/
NATO capable of “razing Russian bases to the ground” in Kaliningrad
https://english.nv.ua/nation/lithuanian-fm-says-nato-can-destroy-russian-military-bases-in-kaliningrad-if-necessary-50609058.html
Russians Pull Money From Bank Deposits for First Time Since 2022 Mobilization Panic
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/18/russians-pull-money-from-bank-deposits-for-first-time-since-2022-mobilization-panic-a92784
30-year US Treasury yield hits highest level in 19 years | CNN Business
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/19/business/30-year-treasury-yield-bond-record
Trump Given Sweeping Tax Amnesty in Secret Deal
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-given-sweeping-tax-amnesty-in-secret-deal/
US Wants Access to Ukrainian Drone Technology in Proposed Defense Deal
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/76461
Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov cut out of Ukraine peace talks, officials say
https://kyivindependent.com/russias-loudest-ukraine-hardliner-no-longer-matters-in-peace-talks-officials-say/
Trump Calls High Gas Prices ‘Peanuts’ as Economic Approval Rating Plunges
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-joe-biden-gas-prices-11968147
DOJ Quietly Bans IRS From Ever Investigating Trump Again | The update to Donald Trump’s settlement with the IRS shields him, his family, and their various businesses.
https://newrepublic.com/post/210686/department-justice-bans-irs-investigating-donald-trump-forever
also noted in the New York Times:
I.R.S. includes a provision barring the agency from pursuing tax claims against President Trump, his family or his businesses.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/trump-irs-doj-lawsuit-audit.html
Todd Blanche gets feisty over Trump’s $1.7B ‘slush fund’ and won’t tell Congress if Jan 6 rioters will be paid – Trump’s former criminal defense attorney says ‘anybody can apply’ but refuses to rule out taxpayer money for people who assaulted police
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/todd-blanche-trump-fund-jan-6-rioters-b2979583.html
Lawmaker Warns of ‘Global Food Crisis,’ Urges Immediate Reopening for Strait of Hormuz
https://time.com/article/2026/05/19/global-food-crisis-concerns-strait-of-hormuz-iran-trade-choke-hold/
Re: Trump and the tax man… some humor:
Our amazingly amazing President has decide to lead America’s tax revolt from the front!
Price Destruction: My affluent landlady is now balking at buying her favorite brand of shredded parmesan cheese at Costco becasue of its ridiculously high cost. Sooner or later …when does the soccer mom rebellion start? Trump, the consumate con artist, cannot keep forever playing : Now you see it, now you don’t. Note: Replacer ‘it’ with Epstein files, Greenland, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran oilt prices, inflation, et al.
Trump is presiding over an incredible amount of American Growth, Canada is going to become the 51st USState, Greenland is also going to become the 51st US State , Venezuela is going to become the 51st US State and Cuba might join the party.
So much Winning it’s UNBELIEVABLE!
And, as DJT predicted in, IIRC, the first campaign, increasing numbers of USians are growing tired of all this winning.
NATO capable of “razing Russian bases to the ground” in Kaliningrad
Do these people have a death wish?
Destroy all the military bases in Kaliningrad, sure no problem. Reports suggest it has been heavily reinforced but a full NATO attack might succeed as long as you do not mind a full–blown war.
However it has a border with Lithuania. Lithuania also has a long border with Belarus, which just happens to be part of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. At the Victory Day Parade in Moscow President Lukashenko of Belarus was seated next to President Putin.
How long would Lithuania exist if Kaliningrad was attacked and Belarus and Russia decided to blast it? NATO might succeed but there would be no Lithuania to see the triumph.
Kalingrad borders Germany. France borders Germany. UK sort of borders France. If Kaliningrad is razed to the ground, no one will be able to find these states on a map any more.
Kalingrad borders Germany.
No, Poland, Belarus and Lithuania. Kaliningrad was part of Germany until 1945 or so but Poland got a good bit of Eastern Prussia then.
If Kaliningrad is razed to the ground, no one will be able to find these states on a map any more.
True but I expect NATO would be a wreak before much happened to Kaliningrad and the Russians would not go that crazy. Still there might not be much left of NATO forces, bases, or anything looking vaguely like a war industry.
I stand corrected. I’m still surprised (I theoretically knew, but I still get mixed up when not thinking: still weird to think of Stettin and Breslau not being German. ) at how far west Poland moved in 1945.
Senate leader Thune splits with Trump over $1.776B DOJ weaponization ‘slush fund’ in first sign of major party rift
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/john-thune-trump-weaponization-fund-b2979579.html
Democratic Rep. Raskin Says Trump Seeks to Fund ‘Private Militia’ with $1.8 Billion Fund from IRS Settlement
https://www.ibtimes.com/democratic-rep-raskin-says-trump-seeks-fund-private-militia-18-billion-fund-irs-settlement-3803030
Small Business Closures Rise Across Russia
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/15/small-business-closures-rise-across-russia-a92768
Blanche confirms DOJ working to ‘implement’ Trump order restricting mail voting
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/blanche-confirms-doj-working-to-implement-trump-order-restricting-mail-voting/
The Republican project isn’t to win in November. It’s to make November cease to matter
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/19/republican-party-erase-black-representation-november-election
Democracy Is a Racial Entitlement Now
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/callais-louisiana-voting-rights-act/687208/
Trump Suggests Alliance of Dictators to Take Down ICC
https://newrepublic.com/post/210611/trump-china-russia-xi-putin-icc
Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein unseats Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky GOP primary
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/kentucky-house-district-4-winners-primary-election-gallrein-massie-rcna345010
I guess Trump’s vengeance still works; enough Republicans are still huffing the crazy glue.
Fever dreams?
Early War Goal Was to Install Hard Line Former President as Iran’s Leader NYT
He was under house arrest, but traveling internationally? I put nothing beyond the US and Israel, but this is beyond my imagination.