Yves here. While Ukraine president Zelensky has strong survival instincts and thus presumably won’t do something so patently stupid as attacking Russia’s Victory Day parade after getting an uncharacteristically fierce and specific warning from Putin, he is also a deluded cokehead, so one can never be be sure. In addition to the reason Korybko lists below to take Putin at his word, one other is that even the normally cautious Russian leader may finally have come to accept that the time has come to drop the hammers on Ukraine. Defying a clear, explicit threat of retaliation, which included advising civilians and diplomats to leave the Kiev environs, gives Putin the formal and moral cover he may regard as beneficial.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
Russia can’t afford to discredit itself abroad, nor can Putin’s ruling United Russia party afford to discredit itself at home four months before the next polls, by threatening overwhelming retaliation against Ukraine if it attacks Moscow’s Victory Day parade only to symbolically retaliate or do nothing at all.
The Russian Defense Ministry warned local civilians and the staff of diplomatic missions in Kiev of their country’s plans to launch a massive retaliatory strike on the city center if Ukraine goes through with Zelensky’s threat to attack Moscow’s Victory Day parade on 9 May. This was followed by Russia announcing ballistic missile tests from Kamchatka from 6-10 May. Shortly afterwards, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated the Defense Ministry’s warning, thus ensuring that the world is aware of it.
This threat likely isn’t a bluff for three sequential reasons. The first is that Russia wants to deter Ukraine from attacking Moscow’s Victory Day parade for self-evident reasons, both relating to optics and the security of its VIPs, to which end it threatened overwhelming retaliation if this happens. The second reason is that Russia cannot threaten such a response without actually going through with it if provoked, otherwise it would irredeemably discredit itself, and more audacious attacks would then likely follow.
And third, Russia is finally signaling its willingness to overwhelmingly retaliate against decision-making centers in Kiev per the Foreign Ministry’s additionally specified threat in the event of Ukraine carrying out this high-profile provocation due to its hardline Kremlin faction partially superceding its moderate one. To explain, Putin hitherto restrained his military due his belief in “The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” as well as his concerns about an uncontrollable escalation spiral sparking World War III.
Once Trump returned and responded positively to Putin’s offer of dialogue for resolving the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, which Biden rejected, Putin and his fellow moderates dangled a resource-centric strategic partnership for incentivizing compromises. The US was receptive to such a partnership, but Russia rejected its demanded compromises that were presented as a precondition, while the US rejected Russia’s own such demands and didn’t coerce compliance from Ukraine or NATO either.
While Trump declined to escalate the Ukrainian Conflict amid this impasse, he still greenlit the rolling back of Russian influence across the world in a bid to coerce Putin into the US’ demanded compromise, namely freezing the conflict in exchange for sanctions relief without resolving the root issues. Informally known as the “Neo-Reagan Doctrine”, it’s placed Russia under pressure in at least 15 different countries, thus discrediting the moderate faction and prompting some among it like Putin to rethink their views.
The Third Gulf War, in which Iran attacked regional US bases without triggering an uncontrollable escalation spiral, then convinced Putin to finally listen to the hardliners who’ve been urging massive strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers in Kiev since the get-go. Public opinion, which is important ahead of September’s next Duma elections, has long aligned with the hardliners on this issue. Putin now seems to have assented but only in retaliation to Ukrainian attacks against Moscow’s Victory Day parade.
These factors make it unlikely that Russia is bluffing, in which case the country itself wouldn’t just be discredited abroad, but so too would the ruling United Russia party be discredited in voters’ eyes four months before the next polls. There’s already speculation of a protest vote in support of the communist and nationalist opposition parties, which might prompt various reforms if it happens, but a large-scale one driven by any hypothetical bluff could herald an era of uncertainty that Putin would prefer to avoid.
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If the Russians did have to launch a counter attack, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada – the Ukraine Parliament building – would be a good target but just enough explosives to damage it. Zelensky keeps on effing around and it is time that he found out. But I expect the Russians to phone through and tell the cleaners and security staff to get out first.
I would send drone swarms taking care of all the Bentleys, Rolls Royces, Ferraris, Bugattis, Lamborghinis driving around in Kiev. You would teach the right persons a lesson for life… or rather death.
This would probably be very popular among most Ukrainians too – the ones who’ve seen their sons, brothers, husbands, fathers dragooned into the military while the sons of the elite get a pass. Though I bet most of those fancy cars are being driven not in Ukraine but in Italy, France, the US, Israel etc…
I am sure that the tax payers of European countries would be happy to see these thieves gerting the treatment they deserve. The billions not invested in their own societies.
The Eurotards based in Kiev are now saying that they will stay because Putin or something. So these days could be a Darwin-award-fest like no other. Put on your White Tie.
I can tell you many are/were in Spanish coastal localities around Alicante. So many that an “industry” of fancy car stealing/reselling was already in place in early 2023. You know what? The band was composed by Ukrainians, Lithuanians and Russians. The capo was Russian according to Spanish police. (link in Spanish)
Business is business.
A fleet of drones into the Rolls and Bentley dealerships would send the right message even if the Ukranians manage to restrain themselves.
The question remains what level of terrorist attack by SBU will be considered as threshold. Because SBU will attempt something for sure. They have done so since day#1. One can only hope Russian security services are as savvy as they have proven to be most of the time so far.
The final suggestion by Korybko I regard as Western PR talking point however:
“There’s already speculation of a protest vote in support of the communist and nationalist opposition parties, which might prompt various reforms if it happens but a large-scale one driven by any hypothetical bluff could herald an era of uncertainty that Putin would prefer to avoid.”.
Mark Sleboda 2 days ago for instance talked about a new risible item by the FINANCIAL TIMES which has been buying into and spreading MI6 fairy tales describing a coup against Putin. It is unclear what the special purpose behind the article is.
To bolster make-believe events in the wake of an attack on May 9 could be among the possibilities.
SHOCKING Truth Behind Putin Coup Conspiracy Revealed/Iran US War Is About To Explode: Why The Status Quo Is Unsustainable
May 5th
Parts 1 & 2 of my latest discussion with Jamarl Thomas 05/05/26
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/shocking-truth-behind-putin-coup
re: “….likely isn’t a bluff.”
What’s the old saying?
Americans play poker. Russians play chess.
Something like that.
The Russians play chess, the Chinese play Go, and the Americans play pocket pool
Trump plays UNO and is proud of “holding all the cards” (actual White House post)
General Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office and former SBU chief, will undoubtedly thwart any absurd plan to attack the Victory Day parade. He is ruthless yet not reckless. As a realist, he knows that attacking a beloved Russian tradition would only unite the Russian people against Ukraine.
I don’t see any reason at all to assume Russia is bluffing, and all things considered a strike on Kiev in retaliation for attacking the Victory Day parade seems appropriate.
In response to Yves’ opening comment, two things.
One, we’ve now had public admissions that at least a portion of these drone strikes are, erm, “advised” by the CIA insofar as targeting. And, of course, it’s clearly obvious that these strikes are massively enabled by US satellite intel and to some extent US satcom (GPS & Starlink). As well as, just as importantly, US and NATO AWACS aircraft and drones, who are the ones mapping Russian air defense networks before, during and after each significant drone strike (while judiciously hovering just outside Russian airspace, without even bothering to switch off their transponders).
My point is that yes, Zelensky is Zelensky, and Ukraine is Ukraine, and one should not claim they have no agency whatever. But for a massive strike or a series of strikes on a target like Moscow? Yeah, in the manner of P.G. Wodehouse’s heroes, I’d lay a hundred to eight that the Pentagon or the CIA are involved at some level. And from that standpoint, having Ukraine do something this stupid so that, if the Russians retaliate, we could paint them as the Big Bad again, well, that kind of works.
Secondly, there is also the factor of Britain. Which typically plays second fiddle to whatever the US is doing, but I personally am convinced that the Kursk incursion in 2024 was a British, and not an American idea. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe I’m right, this isn’t the place for that debate – but certainly Britain still has some pull with the Kiev regime. And from the standpoint of the MI6, “forcing” the Russians to commit an “atrocity” by striking the center of Kiev would certainly be a reasonable way to keep the US involved, or at least onsides.
So I do not know what Kiev will do, but I could easily see how external actors and factors might end up taking the decision out of its hands. In this particular instance.
Then I take something of an issue with one bit of Korybko’s reasoning, that Putin has held back thus far because of some mythical Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood type considerations. I do not believe there is any real evidence of this. There is, however, public evidence of a) some of the oligarchs, for years, repeatedly trying to pump the brakes (because of their own business interests, or because a few of them still seem to hope for an eventual rapprochement with the West); and b) some of the BRICS states (Brazil, India) being much more dovish and trying to pressure Russia in the same direction. I have no idea of what the constant Putin-Xi pillowtalk is all about, but I would not be surprised if the Chinese were also a bit of a “moderating” factor here.
Ironically, what may have pushed the hardliners a bit to the fore now isn’t so much what the West or Ukraine are doing – and the recent escalation of drone strikes is certainly unnerving at least someone over there, hence the MoD publishing that list of European drone factories a week or so ago – but what Iran has done. Which is it showed that a more aggressive you-hit-me-I-hit-you approach is something that can work against the US and its, err, “allies”. There are now occasional queries on Russian state-adjacent TV, “if the Iranians can do this, why can’t we” (the official response for now seems to be “because if we do it, we could start a world war”, for what it’s worth).
Anyhow.
As others have commented, and even Putin apparently said publicly in his recent meeting with Aragchi, Iran has demonstrated immense courage and capability in its defense against US/Israeli attacks etc.
In this context, if a much smaller power, Iran, can fight the empire to a standstill, why has Russia not responded to the many attacks that are clearly aided, coordinated and even initiated by US military, MI6, CIA etc.? Many experts have debated about this and still do. An attack on Victory Day would be too much to bear without serious retaliation.
We could quibble a bit with that statement: The DT2 regime, despite the irrational gibberish of the emperor and others, continued to escalate attacks on Russian infrastructure, military targets, continue to provide ISR support, some say US generals in Europe and CIA/MI6 call the shots. If the US really intended to end the conflict, it could do so relatively quickly.
With the Iran war going on, it seems like almost every day there are attacks on Russia and Russian interests, this just from today https://tass.com/politics/2127825
Putin needn’t worry about starting WW3 – it’s been on for a while now.
I suspect that not only will they retaliate exactly as they have threatened, but they will also issue a warning about response to use of airspace for drone attacks and AWAC intelligence flights directing those drone attacks.
Isn’t one of Ukraine’s options to evade and embarrass Russia’s Moscow air defenses with some drones, and drop only leaflets on the Victory Day crowd? This shouldn’t provoke a significant attack (although maybe Putin doesn’t need much provocation), and if it did, it would probably just underscore Russia’s weakness and the Ukrainian cause.
Haven´t read it yet: Medvedev´s long essay. So I can´t judge how far it makes sense.
Does he have the same scope as Putin? I don’t know.
Germany’s new militarization: Revival of the spirit or blatant revanchism? (by Dmitry Medvedev)
On the eve of Victory Day
Published 7 May
By Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, 3rd President of Russia
https://rtrunews.com/news/639537-germanys-new-militarization-revanchism/
The BBC’s Moscow correspondent/anti-Putin propagandist in chief, has produced a classic example of his genre. The Victory Parade without weapons is a sign of Russia’s weakness, Putin is falling rapidly in the favourability polling stakes, the ‘full-scale’ invasion has lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War etc., etc.
He also boasts about Ukrainian drones hitting tower blocks (no mention of these as civilian targets), the numbers killed are always simply people, not civilians.
However, it seems to me that the absence of weaponry in the 9 May Parade sends a very strong signal to the non-Western world. Rather like the hot shot gunslinger in Westerns, who steps into a saloon and makes a big show of his holster being empty. In other words, he is not presenting any threat to those in the saloon. Similarly Putin is saying, while we have the capability, the Victory Parade is an entirely peaceful event, to honour the memory of all the millions killed in the Great Patriotic War. Were Ukraine to attempt to attack Moscow and the parade in these circumstances, Russia would then have every right to strike back extremely hard. Not that the western propagandists would see it this way, but the rest of the world certainly would.
re: SMO vs. Germany
German legacy papers are insane. Considering what has happened, what is known etc. after 4 years of war it is literally beyond any description. Their position hasn´t changed an inch since Febr. 24th 2022.
Today German “left leaning” (in contrast to FAZ as “right leaning”) SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG with a huge lead piece about how Russian losses are mounting and Putin´s regime is ailing.
I have seriously no clue what kinds of everyday professional life these newspaper editors have.
How delusional and secluded a life can they lead?
This is worse than the propaganda policy under Nazi rule.
There internally many people knew what was going on.
Here and today almost knowbody does.
The variety of news sources ultimately free to access and penetration of reality by those is so profound you really have to have a medical condition to ignore all that – as a newsperson above all.