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Coffee Break: Trump-Endorsed Paxton Crushes Bush-Era Relic Cornyn

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Primary runoff elections in Texas show that the two most dangerous threats to incumbent politicians are Donald Trump and AIPAC.

Let’s start with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.

Trump Backed Paxton beats Cornyn

This wasn’t even close. Paxton won all but 2 of Texas’ 254 counties:

A newly copper-topped Ken Paxton thanked Trump, calling him “the most powerful force in politics”:

And why did Trump back Cornyn’s rival? NBC summed it up:

Unlike Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., another recent Trump target who lost his primary, Cornyn voted to acquit Trump on impeachment charges in 2021. But he remained deeply critical of the Capitol riot and argued in subsequent years that Trump shouldn’t run again in 2024, calling him unelectable and backing a new direction for the GOP.

Months later, as Trump was dominating early primaries and cruising to the nomination, Cornyn backtracked and endorsed him.

Profile in courage.

The NYT had multiple takes on the race:

In the Senate race, Mr. Paxton tore at Mr. Cornyn and the establishment wing of the party that he represents. Mr. Cornyn responded by drawing attention to his opponent’s ongoing divorce — which has included allegations of adultery — and releasing ads featuring an AI-generated Mr. Paxton and two faceless women who were not his wife.
…
More than $128 million was spent on advertising in the Senate race alone, with most supporting the ultimately doomed task of trying to save Mr. Cornyn. Millions more poured into the state attorney general race in its final days.

Republican candidates also engaged in new forms of name-calling, occasionally blending their insults with the party’s recent embrace of anti-Muslim rhetoric.

So does this mean Democratic nominee James Talarico has a chance?

Can Democrats Take the Senate via Texas?

TIME’s Philip Elliott claims Paxton blew a $250 million hole in the GOP national budget:

For more than a year, Republicans beseeched President Donald Trump’s advisers in the White House with a simple ask: if he couldn’t find his way to endorsing Sen. John Cornyn, could he at least keep his mouth shut?

Of course, he could not. Trump last week endorsed Cornyn’s primary opponent in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and on Tuesday Paxton made it through his contentious, costly run-off and into the general election this November. Senate Republicans spent $90 million on defending their amiable colleague and sinking the scandal-soaked Paxton. They failed, and are now left with the jarring reality that they had hoped to avoid: $250 million. That’s the internal price tag being circulated among Republicans for the task of helping Paxton to hold the seat—all at the expense of chasing flipping Democratic seats in places like Georgia, Michigan, or New Hampshire.

The NYT’s Nate Cohn argues Democrats have a real chance to take the seat:

extraordinary demographic shifts have put Texas Republicans in a much more vulnerable position. To an extent few would have imagined a decade ago, Texas’ status as a reliably Republican state now depends on elevated levels of support among Hispanic voters.

In the latest national polls, Mr. Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters have vanished — and the Republican grip on Texas is in danger as a result. The latest New York Times/Siena poll is representative: It shows Democrats ahead by 30 points, 54 percent to 24 percent, among Hispanic registered voters nationwide. That’s better than Joe Biden’s margin in 2020 and getting close to Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016.
…
Alone, major Democratic gains among Hispanic voters would be enough to make Texas a plausible battleground in November. Now consider the party’s expected gains among other demographic groups — including white voters — in this national political environment, and suddenly the conditions would seem to be in place for a Democratic breakthrough.
…
Democrats have made significant gains among Texas’ white voters during the Trump era. For comparison, the gains are basically equivalent to those Democrats made among white voters in Georgia, which drove that state toward the left over the same period.

The Democratic gains among white Texas voters would have been enough to make Texas competitive in 2024, if everything else had stayed constant. Of course, everything else did not stay constant: Mr. Trump made even larger gains among nonwhite voters, especially Hispanic ones, canceling out Democratic gains — and more. Now, those gains have been reversed.

And what about that other force in American politics?

Cornyn did his best to be the AIPAC candidate in the race, but it wasn’t enough:

The Texas Tribune had more on the dark money role in the race in a post that is just too information rich to quote adequately here.

The Tribune points out some of Cornyn’s top donors including:

  • Former President George W. Bush
    His $5,000 donation to Cornyn was his first political donation to a federal candidate in Texas since the 2022 cycle. That year, he also donated $125,000 to his nephew, George P. Bush, who challenged Paxton in the attorney general primary and lost in a runoff.
  • Rupert Murdoch
    Murdoch gave Cornyn $200,000 on New Year’s Eve.

They also listed some of the dark money backing Cornyn via the Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC:

  • Ohio Works Inc. + America Works Fund Inc.: $8.6M
    …funded (as of 2024) by oil and gas-linked groups, Republican leaders in Washington and one Texan — Dallas billionaire Kenneth Fisher
  • Stephen Schwarzman: $1.5M
    Schwarzman is the billionaire CEO of Blackstone
  • Jim and Robson Walton: $1M
    The Walton brothers, Arkansas billionaire heirs to the Walmart fortune, each gave $500,000 to the PAC.

Paxton’s top money marks include:

  • Michael Rydin
    The retired Houston software developer, a major funder for right-wing movements, gave Paxton $17,000. … He has given over $1 million to the Freedom Caucus Fund…
  • Darwin and Doug Deason
    Darwin, the late information technology billionaire, and his son, Doug, have been massive Republican donors and contributors to Paxton over the years.

Paxton also enjoyed PAC support, notably from the Lone Star Liberty PAC whose donors include:

  • Jonathan Knutz: $1.1M
    Knutz is the CEO of a medical device company in Houston.
  • Preserve Texas Inc.: $950,000
    This Virginia-based dark money group was formed shortly after Paxton launched his Senate bid.
  • Gary Heavin: $500,000
    Heavin is a Waco area-based businessman and founder of the Curves fitness chain. An anti-abortion advocate…
  • Chelsey Milton: $500,000
    Milton, an Arizona homemaker, is a Trump donor whose husband was pardoned last year by the president. Trevor Milton, who gave Paxton an additional $100,000, was previously the CEO of an electric vehicle manufacturing company. In 2022, he was found guilty of securities fraud and wire fraud in federal court and sentenced to four years in prison. The couple donated more than $1.8 million to a pro-Trump group; Trump pardoned Trevor Milton in early 2025.
  • Two Toads LLC / SSC Inc. / Baloney Feathers LTD: $300,000
    These mysterious groups each gave $100,000 to the PAC on March 17. Each is registered to the same PO Box address in Lubbock, and none have made any political contributions beyond Lone Star Liberty PAC.

We’ll let our rulers return to the shadows now as we preview Paxton vs Talarico.

Talarico Aiming for Cornyn Voters

Per Politico:

Donald Trump etched another notch in his kingmaker’s crown with Texas AG Ken Paxton headed to a showdown with James Talarico — a move Democrats believe could be his Senate majority’s undoing.

Tuesday night was a big one for Talarico’s campaign, which told Playbook exclusively that in the first two hours following Paxton’s win, the Democrat hauled in $600,000 — the strongest two hours of his entire campaign, which ended the first quarter raising $27 million and $10 million cash-on-hand.

Talarico told Playbook last night that to win in November, he’ll have to convert supporters of Sen. John Cornyn — a conservative by almost any metric, except when measured against Paxton. After Cornyn conceded, Talarico told his supporters “you have a place in our campaign.”

It’s all part of his general election pitch.

“I have a legislative record that I think has a lot to offer supporters of Senator Cornyn. Ken Paxton has a criminal record. I have a legislative record,” Talarico said of his freshly anointed opponent after the results came in. (Paxton struck a deal where he paid restitution and securities fraud felony charges were dropped). “I’ve called out the extremes in both parties, on the right and left, and as you know, called out President Biden for failing to secure our southern border,” he added. “I’ve pushed back against national Democrats who want to hurt the Texas oil and gas industry.”

“I think I have a strong case to make to Senator Cornyn supporters.”

GOP Leans Into Ad Hominem

Per Mediaite:

Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters went off on Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D) on Wednesday morning, branding him a “creep” who wants to “mutilate” kids and is a vegan — a cardinal sin in the Lone Star State.

Gruters skewered Talarico during an interview on Newsmax. He also tapped into his inner President Donald Trump and dubbed him “Talafreako” — a nickname he also used during an interview on Fox News a day earlier.

Wake Up America co-host Sharla McBride asked Gruters how the RNC plans on keeping Texas red. Gruters said it was simple — everything about Talarico is revolting to true Texans.

Talarico denies the vegan allegations saying “He’s Been ‘Eating Barbecue Since Before Ken Paxton’s First Indictment’.”

He also has a planned pivot off the “freako” allegations:

And as for the controversial Adam Hoffman, Esquire, Houston Public Media has background:

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is under fire for a plea deal his prosecutors offered last month to a Waco man charged with repeatedly sexually abusing a young boy.

The deal in the case, which Paxton’s office took over about three years ago after the locally elected district attorney recused himself, would have let the man plead guilty to two misdemeanors and serve a total of just one day in jail.

Paxton’s office did not respond to emailed questions for this story. A spokesperson pointed to a letter that two of his prosecutors who worked on the case sent to Leach last week, in which they explained that the case went to trial last year but ended in a hung jury, and the young victim did not want to testify a second time.

“The child emphasized that he preferred to move on with his life and prioritize his mental and emotional health,” wrote the prosecutors, Brenda Cantu and Dorian Cotlar.

Beyond Paxton’s immediate political rivals, the deal has attracted criticism from local officials in Waco, including the McLennan County district attorney, a state representative from the area and even the judge presiding over the matter.

There’s also the matter of Paxton buying a mansion for his mistress with dark money, per the Daily Mail (archived):

Paxton, 63, has quietly moved into a $2.1 million mansion inside a gated community in the coveted Dallas suburb of Frisco.

The sprawling five-bedroom, five-bathroom property spans nearly 5,000 square feet and includes a swimming pool backing onto a manicured golf course and an exclusive $100,000-a-year country club.

Multiple political insiders told the Daily Mail that Paxton is playing house in the luxury home – which property records show was purchased on February 13, just in time for Valentine’s Day – with girlfriend Tracy Duhon, 58.

Paxton is still married to Angela Paxton, who is herself a sitting state senator. Duhon was also married when she and the MAGA firebrand first met two years ago – an affair first revealed by the Mail.
…
‘I’m honestly baffled,’ one Paxton insider told Daily Mail when asked about the proximity of the mistress’s house to the wife’s house.

‘Maybe he (Paxton) feels that his voter base is in Collin County.’

Another source who has known the AG for years added: ‘I’d be lying if could tell you what’s going on in that’s man head at any given time.’

Now let’s look at AIPAC’s role in the Democratic primary run-offs in Texas.

When AIPAC Wins We All Lose

And why did AIPAC want to oust Al Green?

AIPAC wasn’t alone in supporting Menefee. The new Democratic nominee also enjoyed the support of Crypto-backed U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett — who lost the Senate primary to James Talarico. Per Politico:

Crockett has become a key surrogate for Rep. Christian Menefee in a primary runoff contest against fellow Democratic Rep. Al Green, as well as for former Rep. Colin Allred against Rep. Julie Johnson.

In the Houston-based TX-18, where Crockett is backing Menefee, the crypto-aligned super PAC Protect Progress has spent $3.7 million on two ads supporting the recently-elected U.S. representative against the fellow Congressional Black Caucus member 40 years his senior — both of which feature Crockett’s endorsement.

There was one other primary run-off that was of some interest.

The Case of the ‘Anti-Semitic’, Secretly GOP-Backed Democrat

The 35th Congressional District run-off got a lot of attention in the last week, here’s Politico’s coverage from last week:

Lead Left has poured more than $900,000 into promoting Maureen Galindo, a left-wing sex therapist who has been broadly condemned by Democrats over a string of comments they say are antisemitic, including calls to turn a local ICE detention center into a “prison for American Zionists.” The group has put more than $640,000 toward ads, per tracking firm AdImpact. Federal campaign finance filings show the group is also spending on mail.

It’s the latest in a string of interventions by the new super PAC that appears to be trying to elevate weaker Democrats against Republicans to ease the GOP’s path in November. But unlike in more traditional swing districts where the PAC spent big in Pennsylvania and Nebraska, Texas’ 35th District should be safe Republican territory after GOP state lawmakers gerrymandered the San Antonio-area seat into one President Donald Trump would have won by about 10 points in 2024.

Garcia won with 63% of the vote.

That’s all for today. See y’all next week.

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21 comments

    1. johnherbiehancock

      This state is so insane.

      I think the novel that captures the mentality here is Blood Meridian by Cormac McCarthy – STILL in this day, in the 21st Century.

      Ironically, given the rhetoric of guys like Bo French, really the only civilizing influence since then has been all the foreigners who’ve moved here since the setting of that novel in the mid-19th century: German 49ers, Czechs, and then more recently the Chinese, Vietnamese, Persians, Muslims, Indians, etc. and I suppose Yankee engineers, petro-chemists, physicists, etc. brought in to run the oil, gas, and petro-chemical companies.

      The Hispanics, particularly the Mexican Americans here, are a real mixed bag politically.

      Reply ↓
  2. marku52

    Thanks, now go wash your waders, Nat.
    It’s all basically awful except for the amount of money Paxton wasted.

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  3. voislav

    It’s funny Republican insiders think they have a chance of flipping Democratic seats in this election. Paxton putts Texas in play for the Democrats, early polling has Tallarico basically tied. Last time Texas Senate elections were this close was Ted Cruz vs. Beto O’Rourke, polls had Cruz at +7% going into the election and he won by 2.5%. Cruz’s polling advantage never dipped below 3%, so having Tallarico tied or slightly ahead of Paxton already is a bad sign for Republicans.

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    1. ChrisRUEcon

      > so having Tallarico tied or slightly ahead of Paxton already is a bad sign for Republicans

      … from your comment to ${DEITY}’s ears.

      #Inshallah

      Reply ↓
  4. Bill Carson

    I try my best not to be conspiratorial, and I know about the kind of people who vote in Texas Republican primary runoff elections, but I find it really, really hard to believe that any candidate in a hotly-contested race such as this could win by 28%. We are to believe that for every person who voted for the longtime incumbent senator, nearly two people voted for his crooked and morally depraved counterpart? Look, I know what a heroic symbol Ken Paxton has become to the far right MAGA base, with all of his specious litigation against every form of political adversary or bogeyman and his unwavering loyalty to Trump, and I know that, as much as he tried to cosplay as a MAGA republican, Cornyn’s schtick just wasn’t credible. And not even Trump’s endorsement would move the needle that much, especially considering that the endorsement didn’t come until well-into the early voting. But 28%?!? I suspect that Elon took his little software project on a test run. No wonder Trump says he is not worried about the mid-terms. I fear we are about to see a giant red wave come November, and nobody, not the press, not the Democrats, not the election officials, and certainly not the judges, are prepared to do anything about it. “Vote this time and them you won’t need to vote anymore.” Indeed!

    Reply ↓
    1. MH

      FWIW this race was decided by a complete collapse of Cornyn voters. Paxton got about 12K votes more than he did in the first round (878K vs 890K). Cornyn saw his votes drop by more than 400K (910K vs 504K).

      Reply ↓
    2. FlyoverBoy

      Certainly that theory is believable insofar as the Republicans will never, ever refrain from doing anything on the basis of principle. The only reason I doubt it is, if the software is in place, they could simply write any outcome they chose. Why bother to do all the other suppression stuff, too?

      Reply ↓
  5. compUTerguy

    The only way Tallarico wins in Texas is if the economy totally craters and Republicans don’t turn out. I painfully read a conservative Texas blog and, there, Trump is still the greatest thing ever; we just need to wait out the Iran nonsense! Why hasn’t he gone in and just stomped those evil muslims?!

    They recognize Paxton is a crook but he isn’t a “libral retard”which is infinitely worse.

    Always look forward to your contributions Nat!

    Reply ↓
  6. ChrisRUEcon

    USians need to get over their aversion to mid-cycle elections, man. 36% drop in turnout from the Primary, which was only 24%, but apparently worth celebrating by the Texas Tribune in March. Yikes. Doing the math, the turnout for the runoff would be around 15% … Fifteen.

    Reply ↓
    1. hk

      Oddly timed elections used to be even bigger deal in parts of US: in early half of 20th century, bond issuance elections used to be held on really strange days, invariably in the middle of work week–especially if they had something to do with water. LA DWP, besides ensuring favorable election schedule, used to manipulate who turned out by giving its employees and contractors the day off, with instructions. DWP is a big organization, even today, and combined with low turnout, for good reasons, by everyone else, ensured that DWP got all the money it needed to fund big water projects.

      The point: clever people can mess with low turnout to their advantage bigly. It doesn’t need to advantage one side or the other, just some underhanded thinking.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisRUEcon

        #TYVM

        I’ve always wondered about whether or how much employer “incentives” to vote are liable to “cross a line” of legality.

        Reply ↓
    1. ChrisRUEcon

      This is a (sick) joke … but totally in line with the #VBNMW (Vote Blue No Matter Who) idiocy of “benevolent billionaires.”

      Reply ↓
    2. LilD

      We all have to make our own choices

      I voted for Steyer primarily on his long history of supporting causes that I believe are right. I think he will be able to tidy up some defective state processes although it’s a heavy lift. I believe he is truly a class traitor and would like like to improve for the working class.
      I might be wrong

      Was picking between him and Katie porter

      Becerra seems like just a regular politician who is reasonably plugged in to the California elites

      Reply ↓
    3. Adam

      If you are looking at voting at the realistic candidates (it’s fine if you are not! I often don’t), Steyer is the one that at least is supporting billionaire taxes and Medicare for All. PG&E spent $8 million on anti-Steyer ads and IMO there is no worse California villain than electricity companies. Beccera stands for nothing and is already starting to the right of Newsom and I wouldn’t be surprised if his rise was fake via push-polls and fearmongering over 2 Republicans getting through. Porter got screwed but then followed it up by being totally unimpressive; that exchange with Steyer on billionaire taxes was embarrassing.

      Reply ↓

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