[Today’s Iran war post again went live before finished. I have to go out today so it may not be complete before 9:00 AM EDT. Please return or refresh this page then for a final version]
After some had hoped that there might be a pause or even cooling off in the Middle East after Iran and Israel exchanged strikes triggered by Israel bombing Beirut despite Iran reaffirming that the ceasefire needed to include Lebanon.1 But rather than leave well enough alone, which Trump briefly seemed inclined to do, he used the pretext of the downing of an Apache helicopter, in which no lives were lost and for which Iran has said informally was not the result of an attack, to launch yet another wave of strikes to which Iran promptly responded.
The strategic significance of this latest exchange of blows looks to be more important than the kinetic impact.
First, it suggests that Trump regards Iran as the element of his current impasse that he is most likely to be able to bend to his will, as opposed to Israel. A secondary reason for the latest pounding may be for Trump to keep generating news coverage that can be spun as proof of US primacy and control.
Second, Trump continues to believe that he can pound Iran into submission. However, the latest exchange appears to confirm that the US generally loses each time. It expends costly and scarce materiel when Iran can and does retaliate with much cheaper and more abundant weaponry. Iran is continuing to attrit the US.
Third, despite the very loud Trump noises, this attack was not all that consequential (see for instance the assessment by Professor Mohammed Marandi at the top of what soon became a frustrating talk with Mario Nawfal), save from the war crime of hitting a water plant that served 20,000. 2 Aljazeera reports that Iran repaired the damage in 12 hours.
Fourth, Iran demonstrated it maintains escalation dominance. Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz.
After unpacking the latest exchanges a bit more, we’ll turn to fresh presentations by former close Trump ally Robert Barnes on Trump’s deteriorating cognition and emotional control, which includes a very strong view that Trump cannot consummate a “deal” with Iran and needs to be maneuvered to exit. Finally, Trump made a new claim that the US secretly got 100 million barrels of Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Aside from the “Iran” part being denied by Trump’s own energy secretary, many experts questioned the magnitude of possible covert oil movement. This new Trump claim smacks of being new messaging to try to undercut the rising level of insider alarms, confirmed by data, on the imminent arrival of the oil supply cliff. Independent of how credulous oil futures traders continue to be, Trump will soon see, as did King Canute, that he cannot hold back the tide.
Predictably, Bloomberg focuses on the US action and not the Iran retaliation. From its landing page:
And its summary at the top of US Strikes Iran in Trump Escalation Over Stalled Peace Talks:
- The US military launched strikes against “multiple” targets in Iran for the second straight day after President Donald Trump accused the country of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal.
- US Central Command said it had begun “additional self-defense strikes” at 5:15 p.m. New York time on Wednesday, targeting surveillance systems, air defense sites and communications networks.
- Trump said in a Fox News interview that he had spoken with top Iranian officials Wednesday and they had asked him to halt the bombing, but he added the US would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an agreement.
By contrast, from Aljazeera at the same time I accessed the Bloomberg Middle East site:
Its live feed does not yet have much detail. Middle East Eye’s live feed reports that Israel is making new attacks on Baalbek and Nabatieh in Lebanon.
Hindustan Times provides Iran’s account of the damage done in return:
I had the misfortune to listen to most of the Hegseth presser in the second half. It really is…something.
More on Iran’s claims from Hormuz Letter:
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC announces it struck dozens of US military targets across five bases overnight in two large ballistic missile and drone waves.
In Jordan, Iran hit and destroyed F-35, F-15, and F-16 hangars at the Al-Azraq Air Base with 12 ballistic missiles.
In Bahrain, several P-8A Poseidon aircraft at Sheikh Isa Air Base and Patriot radar defense systems at the US 5th Fleet HQ were hit with drones. Iran also struck US installations at the Ali Al-Salem and Ahmad Al-Jaber bases in Kuwait, for a combined total of 18 US targets hit in the Kuwait-Bahrain wave.
An informed military source has disclosed to Fars News Agency new details about a complex Iranian intelligence and operational effort preceding the early Thursday attacks on several US military bases in the region.
According to the source, the strikes inflicted significant military equipment.
The source said Iranian forces closely tracked two US Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft from the moment they took off. One aircraft reportedly departed from Diego Garcia Air Base in the central Indian Ocean, while the other flew from a US military base in Western Europe toward the southern Persian Gulf. Based on intelligence gathered during the operation, Iran allegedly targeted the aircrafts’ locations at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain and Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait using precision-guided weapons.
A separate source stated that Iranian intelligence and field surveillance assets also monitored the deployment of at least three US F-35 fighter jets inside a hangar at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan up until the final moments before the missile launches. According to the source, Iran subsequently struck the exact location of the hangar with long-range solid-fuel missiles.
From Tasnim News in US F-16 Fighter Jet Shooed Away by Iran’s Air Defense:
“After the enemy F-16 fighter jet violated the airspace of the Persian Gulf and the IRGC air defense system fired a missile at it, the aggressor fighter jet fled the scene,” the IRGC public relation office said on Thursday morning.
And a bit more detail:
In addition:
🔺 Iran Claims Detailed Intelligence Operation Behind Strikes on U.S. Bases
Fars News cited a source saying Iran carried out a “complex intelligence and operational plan” in its early Thursday strikes on U.S. military bases across the region, claiming significant damage to… https://t.co/4eoMEScrxw
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) June 11, 2026
In related developments, The Cradle reports IAEA passes anti-Iran resolution, demands Tehran reveal location of enriched uranium. From its article:
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a resolution on 10 June demanding that Tehran declare the fate of its enriched uranium stockpiles and allow inspectors to verify them.
The text submitted by Washington, the UK, France, and Germany passed with 21 votes in favor, three against, and 10 abstentions, according to diplomats cited by Reuters.
Russia, China, and Niger opposed the resolution, the sources added…
Tehran condemned the vote, calling it a politically motivated measure “devoid of professionalism.”
Iran's mission to the UN in Vienna condemned the IAEA Board of Governors' latest resolution on Iran's nuclear program, calling it a politically motivated measure lacking professionalism.
Tehran questioned the agency's credibility for failing to condemn recent attacks on Iranian… pic.twitter.com/H4eKsMfWlu
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) June 10, 2026
Now to the Robert Barnes bombshells, starting with one that aired second yesterday:
This is a must watch but for those who are time-pressed, key bits from a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Napolitano: Do we know how Trump came to decide to invade Iran?
Barnes: Yeah, from the people that I’ve talked to, the president’s decision-making has changed and this was in the buildup prior to the going into Iran, but from people that were around the president on a regular basis communicated that, you know, the president that used to be art of the deal, always plan for the worst, expect for the best, the the positive thinking tethered by a form of sort of hardcore realism, the the president who loved getting like 55 different second opinions on any topic or subject, the you know, that president, the president who was uber rational and uh and hardcore in making practical and tactical decisions was mostly gone by the by December, by late winter. It had been slipping and eroding since late summer of 2025.
And now you had someone that almost the way they described him thought like a toddler that were very emotionally driven. would confabulate constantly, didn’t like to hear second opinions or even second guesses what he was thinking at a given moment, would get mad and enraged. Even people like Bessent and others would walk around on eggshells around him because his temper was out of control.
You sort of saw it in some of the social filters.
But the most disturbing aspect was the confabulation they were describing that they would tell him something and then he would somehow forget it the next day. and not so much out of forgetfulness, but if he didn’t want to hear something, he decided it wasn’t true and even if he heard it and was told it many, many times over. Vice versa, if he wanted to believe something, he believed it was true even when his top advisers told him it was not true.
So, in the buildup to the Iran war that people like Vice President, there was literally nobody on board the the war to begin with uh within the US administration. Everybody voiced skepticism and doubt. Even uh Secretary of State Rubio voiced out.
Napolitano: Even Even Pete Hegseth
Barnes: Even Pete Pete Hegseth voiced out, then he became a big war champion.
One can take issue with whether Trump was all that good a decision-maker in his better days. However, what Barnes says now is credible by virtue of how Trump conducts himself in public, including the way he regularly explodes at female reporters who dare to persist in questioning him.
Later in the same talk:
Napolitano: Who runs American foreign policy, Donald Trump or Marco Rubio?
Barnes: That’s a good question. I would say predominantly it’s the Israel lobby at the moment, but not alone. And then Trump’s emotional, psychological whims.
Barnes also explains why Tulsi Gabbard stayed on so long: she hoped to last another six months so she could complete a report on Ukraine’s biolabs.
Barnes’ closely preceding conversation with Nima had covered similar ground:
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Barnes: Well, first I should say the ceasefire happens and then Lebanon as you point out now but also all the way back then [Israel] immediately breaches it. In fact, they you they escalate right after the ceasefire is entered into. And first people thought, oh they’re just doing that to try to get everything out before they have to really shut down with the ceasefire. No, they were doing it to completely undermine the ceasefire.
So in response the Iran said, “Well, we’re not fully opening up the Strait” Then the and then Trump said, “Okay, I’m keeping the blockade in.”
Then the deal is, there’s an announcement of a ceasefire. Iran announces the Starit is open.
And Trump decides to confabulate in his brain literally, just make it up that, oh really they’ve agreed to give me all their nuclear materials and they’ve agreed to all these things they didn’t agree to. And the and so Trump blows it up. Trump says oh, all throughout this the Iranians are playing us. No, it’s Trump playing everybody. The Iranians have been straightforward through the whole negotiations. Everybody inside the White House knows the guy that’s that keeps tap dancing around this is Trump himself.
So then Iran was like, “Okay, we’ll reclose the Strait.” And since then, at least six times, that original deal has been put back into force with just Iran demanding a little more each time. Like, okay, if you’re going to breach it, then we’re going to have to demand you pay a higher price before any good conditions get met….
Trump hits the panic button and he sees all this criticism from the Israel lobby because he obsessively watches Fox News.
He hears it, you know, from the donor class and from senators like Wicker and Graham and all those lunatics who he likes to listen to for whatever reason. And he chickens out over and over again.And people always assumed he would chicken out in favor of the markets. Instead, he doesn’t. He chickens out in favor of the Israel lobby. He’s so intimidated and afraid of criticism from that crowd that he decides to make what was likely an accident if it was anything. The idea that a drone attacked and was was targeting a helicopter that was flying however high in the sky and the only two people on board come out completely unscathed. Sorry, that doesn’t happen….
So he immediately goes back in and starts escalating again. And in the in his confabulated mind, when he emotionally decides for psychological reasons, he needs to do something that’s just plainly stupid. Keeps saying, “Every other president before me has been stupid.” But and that’s how Iran has played him.
No, every other president before Trump has not been as stupid as Trump. He’s going to go down as the dumbest president we’ve ever had in his second term as as well as the most corrupt in American political history, which is saying something uh in the recent era. Trump decides to go back in and reescalate, and he’s talking about doing it again today….. When you can’t do either one of those deals, you’re literally dealing capable….
That’s why Joe Kent, I and some others with friends and allies on the anti-war side in the administration have been advocating from day one, just get Trump to get out.
He’s never going to do a reasonable deal. He’s not capable of doing a reasonable deal because he is so fear riddled..
This is why I keep telling people he can’t make a good decisions. His decision-making process is completely broken. The Trump, anyone has known from any time before, is gone.
It’s just gone. And so he’s he thinks like a toddler, like it’s two-year-old level thinking. And the consequence of that is what he will do is he will convince himself that the bad thing can’t happen. So when he when he changes direction for emotional reasons, he then rationalizes his decision…
He’s driven entirely by fear. Fear of humiliation, fear of embarrassment, fear of comparison to Obama, fear of criticism from the Fox News crowd and the Israel lobby, fear of being humiliated on the global stage if Iran actually does develop and show off that they have nukes. It’s just fear, fear, fear, fear, fear of getting so crushed in the midterms that he gets impeached and removed from the presidency. That’s all that’s motivating him. But whatever short term, whatever fear short-term dominates, he rationalizes and excuses and justifies to himself that the other fears on the other side of the ledger will never come true. And it takes massive efforts to break through to him.
That’s also why you see him flip-flop within a day, within a minute, within an hour. That’s different emotions, different fears dominate at different times. In my view is their best hope for the US, the world is a Trump exit not a Trump deal because he’s not capable of a deal.
Now to Trump’s claim about successfully getting Iranian oil out of the Strait of Hormuz for US benefit. The Janta Ka segment below has the relevant clip starting at 3:30, which rolls immediately into the US Energy Secretary’s denial in Congressional testimony:
Trump later adjusted his assertion:
Mind you, it is entirely possible that the US has gotten some oil out despite the Iran closure. But I doubt the claims about volume. Some experts do not see the Trump claim as new news, as in shadow transits have been reasonably well captured (if nothing else when the cargo arrives at port):
🛢️ Oil market analyst Rory Johnston cautions against reading too much into reports of rising “dark” shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Johnston notes that while Kpler has recorded an uptick in vessels sailing without broadcasting their location since late May, dark… https://t.co/0d6C4hN27F
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) June 10, 2026
From the detail in Johnson’s tweet:
– there have always been dark transits
– there has been a notable uptick, as reported by Kpler, beginning late-May
– that dark transit uptick has been offset by far fewer “official” Iranian route passages
– traffic remains massively throttled, headline counts little changed
– also, this is still just functionally a stock draw at this stage so it doesn’t change much.PS: Murmurs of some fresh loadings (which could mean *production*) are much more promising, but we’re still talking negligible figures and as with everything else they’re being blown out of proportion.
Additional context:
Lets say what Trump said is true and roughly 2 million barrels per day made it through in the last 40 days.
That is roughly 10% of normal traffic at the cost of an Apache helicopter, several drones, and god only knows how many billions a month it costs to sustain the blockade https://t.co/tHmZ537YPI
— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) June 10, 2026
More experts complain about the sorry state of price discovery in paper oil markets:
⚠️Tales of oil price manipulation: volatility collapsing because of the tighter and tighter cap on the price, while the situation on the ground worsens with every passing hour.
Pretty intuitive what's going to happen to both the oil price and volatility once the cap breaks pic.twitter.com/XPbf0o2sQZ
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) June 11, 2026
And official impotence regarding the state of physical markets:
The oil shortages and high inflation of the 1970s were not fixed by higher interest rates.
It was fixed by the Alaska pipeline coming into service, Gulf of Mexico offshore oil scaling up and North Sea oil scaling up.
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) June 11, 2026
Larry Johnson also questions the Trump secret operations claims for different reasons. From Trump’s Covert Oil Scam… Setting the Record Straight:
I want to focus on what Trump claimed today regarding oil coming out of the Persian Gulf. I am asking the key question up front… If you are running a successful covert operation for more than 30 days, why would you reveal it to the public? Answer: You wouldn’t if it was a truly successful covert program….
He claimed the operation resulted in more than 100 million barrels of oil making it to the open market and more than 200 commercial ships safely transiting the strait. Trump had earlier told reporters in the Oval Office that the US was “taking out” millions of barrels of oil in the middle of the night, and that Iran did not know because their radar systems had been destroyed by US strikes. He said he had been itching to reveal the operation but held back — implying he disclosed it now because Iran had already figured it out…
This is nothing but pure bullshit. Let’s look at the numbers. Prior to the start of the Ramadan War on 28 February, the Persian Gulf countries sent 20 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz. A very large oil tanker can carry 2 million barrels. In other words, at least 50 ships passed through the straits carrying what amounts to 5-days of exports from the Gulf.
And just to put this into further perspective, 100 million barrels represents 5-days of consumption in the US. This is not a consequential amount. It is small potatoes in the world context. But I return to my original question — Why is Trump blowing the cover on a supposedly successful op? It makes no sense.
As we said earlier, this looks to be a new market manipulation gambit, and a twofer, first to counter the falling potency of “Deal is just around the corner!” patter plus to push back against evidence of the coming oil cliff.
All done! See you tomorrow!
_____
1 Let us not forget that every time the US demonstrates bad faith by yet again attacking Iran, Iran adds to its demands. Iran has recently added that a ceasefire needs to include Gaza and the West Bank.
2
NEW: Our visual analysis suggests the United States hit two drinking-water facilities overnight in southern Iran with precision-guided munitions. Deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime. w/ @ckoettl @johnismay @ArtemisChats pic.twitter.com/oU1qCev3fk
— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) June 11, 2026
It is obvious that Trump has restarted this war for his own reasons but the question is why? I have a theory that I will throw out here but do not have confidence in it enough to defend it. So for context, Iran warned Israel not to bomb the civilians of Beirut – so of course Israel bombed Beirut again. Iran said right, and lobbed a coupla waves of missiles at Israel. We will never hear of the real damage caused but Israel must have taken a few heavy blows. This sets up a tit for tat exchange of fire between the two countries but in the long run, Israel would come out the loser in this exchange as their antiair missiles would have run out before Iran ran out of drones and missiles. And it is at this point Trump steps in and, using the bogus excuse of that lost chopper, starts waves of attacks against Iran all over again. And just to get the Iranians motivated, bombs water reservoirs meant for civilian use. So could it be that Trump restarted the war in order to protect Israel and divert Iranian attacks against the US instead? As in Israel Uber Alles? It sounds crazy but lots of stuff Trump does is crazy. Anyway, it is a theory for what it is worth.
Doesn’t sound crazy. It jibes with what Robert Barnes is saying about Trump’s fear of the Israel lobby.
It’s almost like they have some serious dirt on him and he really does NOT want it to come out.
But nahh, couldn’t be that Mossad has DJT over a barrel, could it…?
Occam’s razor. The simplest explanation is that Israel and its associates have something on him that ruins him.
I don’t believe this suffices as an explanation.
Israel and associates have something that can ruin Trump? This is quite possible. Why not? He isn’t an angel.
But blackmail is complicated. The idea of blackmailing Trump only makes any sense if Israel has a strong hold on the likely Trump successor (Vance), and that likely successor has the same control over his party – which is quite unlikely. Otherwise any try to blackmail Trump will go like this:
Israel: “Do as we say, or we play our card and you are ruined. Game over.”
Trump: “You do that and you lose the only ally you still have. Game over.”
Because Trump doesn’t have to care about his legacy anymore. Its shame, ostracism, ruin and a never ending barrage of lawsuits (only for minor things like corruption, not for murder).
The Bibi Trump depression will make sure of this.
Blackmail doesn’t suffice as an explanation.
Mental health issues do, though. Which wouldn’t be good if true, considering that nobody around him seems to be able to stand up against him.
I agree: Trump is so shameless that it would be impossible to blackmail him except that he fears losing money — and so he is easily manipulated by throttling the cash hose, by steering markets in a way that he suffers investment losses, or by the threat that his myriad tax frauds might be pursued legally. He is also completely untethered from reality and mentally unhinged but appears to be disconnected from anyone who might bring him back to earth.
It isn’t so much:
as:
“Do you know who you are [this is a family friendly site] with? I [this is a family friendly site] dare you to do that because the same day you and your [this is a family friendly site] cronies will be shipped to the Hague.”
Trump has decided he is the biggest bully and to him that means one upping anyone who tries to bully him.
Similarly that what Barnes identifies as fear is, seeing his other behavior, Trumps narcissism. The man isn’t so much afraid as suffering from a narcissistic breakdown exacerbated by the onset of white matter disease/dementia.
A narcissistic breakdown is the result of reality rudely intruding on the fantasy a narcissist creates that makes themselves such a great person. Well normally the narcissist tries to remove the intruding bit of reality; Only if they fail and more and more reality keeps piling on they get a breakdown where they get aggressive, retreat deeper into their fantasy, accept less and less contradicting facts/opinions/whatever (the ones that they normally explain away to themselves), and try to enforce their fantasy world on reality.
Trump was reasonably in control of his narcissism, until he got white matter disease/dementia. The result of that in combination of running into reality multiple times and reality not budging at all is what we now see in Trump.
If there is a case for the US to use the 25th amendment while the current president is still upright and pretending to be coherent it is this.
What could they possibly have that would make people think trump is worse than they do now?
Extreme pedophilia. Epstein was a past master at setting up such “honeytraps” and exploiting the results. Trump seems to have had, even early on, quite severely low impulse control. A second possibility is Roy Cohn. Cohn was a notoriously predatory homosexual. A young Donald Trump might have been a temptation he couldn’t resist, and there might be evidence of that. This would be a massive blow to Trump’s internal masculine self-image. Remember, it appears that Trump has always lived “in the eyes of others.”
It is past time for the invocation of the 25th Amendment.
Israel need not have any kompromat on Trump: I think his overwhelming, self-destructive need to be recognized by Israel et al. as the dominating tough guy, better than all who came before (particularly the viscerally hated Obama) will preclude any sane, rational path. This seems to be what is truly malignant about his narcissism: he would rather perish, taking the country with him, than be seen as weak. As Barnes points out about Trump’s addled state, these fears of humiliation orchestrate his vacillations. We are thus at the mercy of the Murdochs, Israel, the New York Times, and the plutocratic lobby. The mere insinuation from these sources that he is weak will result in ever more escalation. And as Mary Trump has pointed out, the approval he seeks he will never get: his father’s.
To me, this only ends either with his physical collapse or his physical removal from office. And I doubt he would go peacefully.
Rolf, I really and truly think you are on to it. Yes, I agree Israel likely has dirt on Trump. But so what? What is going to come out at this point in his life that will truly ruin him? Is there anything? He’ll just brush it off as fake news anyway and who will step up to do anything about it, as if he goes down, he’ll take as many with him as he can.
I really think the answer is just as simple as the guy can’t handle a humiliation, and admitting defeat would humiliate him. Now, it so happens that the people in his orbit know this and are playing him like a cheap radio. Trump is really pretty simple and manipulating the guy has to be fairly easy. Plus his interests align with TPTB’s so it’s not like they’re making that big of an ask anyway.
I also think there’s a bit of legacy building going on here as well. He thinks he can “fix” things once and for all. Like all the other things he’s trying to slap his name on, he wants middle east peace (dominated by western interests, natch) with his signature on the paper. And there’s ego. And, as his recent posts have spit out, Obama is still living in his head rent free. He needs to be seen as better than Obama.
So yeah, the blackmail is likely there, but I don’t think it’s really that important with Trump, even if he does get awfully touchy when Epstein matters come up.
I did not include this in the post because it is WAY too speculative.
But consider: the Zionist-controlled media in the US could flog a story like this even if it were a total fabrication:
I saw this in another context and it wasn’t a child. Apparently one woman wrote testimony that a fellow escort (?) masseuse (?) complained in the shower Trump had a thing for nipple abuse and the woman showed signs of it.
https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/haberman-bombshell-reveals-trump-nipple-abuse-claim-prompted-panicky-situation-room-meeting/
FWIW
If Trump has a thing for nipple abuse, one assumes he had a lot of victims. The incident you describe if anything adds a teeny bit of credibility to the case posited in the tweet.
Are you actually citing Mediaite, which is partially citing the NYT article? I want to be sure that’s what’s happening. Are you citing a source selectively removed from a source?
The person originally quoted in the New York Times article, Sarah Ransome, while discussing the young and underage girls in Epstein’s entourage (in fact, the term used is ‘sex-trafficking ring”), called the victim with the nipples a ‘girl’. Not a woman. Not an escort. Not a masseuse. Most of the victims were underage. The court filing with Sarah Ransome’s own words and emails is linked in the Mediaite article you shared. Why didn’t you read them before making things up? Ransome, again and again, refers to her peers as girls. “There are more girls, Maureen” in what reads like a plea for help.
To participate in a discussion, please inform yourself and don’t make stuff up. Especially when it comes to sexual abuse of children.
Never forget his core base, and many of his surroundlings, are evangelical xians. Something like abusing women is of no concern to them as they view women as property anyway.
Women, maybe, but children? Even extreme fundies try and protect children.
Hi Yves,
Nima did a interview with Pravin Sawhney today (link : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naAabzpa0Y8).
Pravin – in the first 10-15 minutes offers a far credible explanation about continued Military engagement with Iran.
I think it’s simpler.
Iran has not been bending in the negotiations by proxy. We do not know precisely what was in the texts they repeatedly exchanged through Pakistan, but their press and political figures reiterated that the core demands remained the same, e.g. release of frozen assets before anything happens. Stuff that neither Trump himself, nor the Washington establishment, wants to countenance.
Now, recall the recent story told by one of the commenters on this site about how Trump “negotiated” viz. one of his New Jersey casinos. “I’ll declare bankruptcy” – “fine, we’ll take the company” – “then I won’t declare bankruptcy and keep paying you” – “fine, we’ll be made whole”. It is both plausible and ridiculous, but the analogy fits here. He tried ceasefire, the Iranians won’t bend, now he’ll try some shooting (and the Iranians still won’t bend). When you have no plan to begin with and get stuck in a damned-if-you-do situation, you thrash about trying everything over and over again, hoping that something, somewhere will work.
CENTCOM must have told him recently enough that they’re ready to go again, if ordered to. I mean, using 49 Tomahawks in the first wave means they a) reloaded and b) retargeted those things, which takes time. A convenient excuse was then provided, after several days of exchanging love taps, I might add. Now, this does not take away the Israel angle, and one suspects that if not for the strikes against Israel a little while ago, the main CENTCOM strikes might have waited until this weekend or the next. But I suspect he had wanted to do it anyway, because he does not know what to do and cannot – not just due to psychology, but because the Washington establishment would eat him alive – just up and walk away from the conflict, tacitly giving the Iranians everything they want. [Identical to the Ukraine thing, by the way, which he still can walk away from at any time, but instead we have US generals in Rammstein continue to play the video game of hitting Russian targets with “Ukrainian” made-in-Poland drones…]
This makes some sense. And the clock is ticking, the walls closing in, as far as the all important markets. SPR due to run out sometime in July most say. He wants Iran’s capitulation thus he never has had any interest in negotiations. So of course negotiations have failed. War looks unlikely to succeed either!
Well, we’re at 345 million barrels now, apparently. Of that, probably 160 million is unavailable due to crud and sludge accumulation and pump head limitations. At 11 million barrels takeout a week that gives 7 weeks.
i took another look at the spr yesterday..
its not only the sludge, its the structure of the things.
take too much out too quickly and theyll implode.(think about the sinkholes that suddenly form along the gulf coast from time to time…we almost drove right into one in boling, texas, one early morning on the way to hunt ducks.
thats a salt dome collapse, due to either drought or inundation with fresh water.
the spr are hollowed out salt domes(hollowed out 50 some years ago, mind…before snake cams and drones, etc).
nobody knows where the critical threshold is, either.
…and statements like this annoy me:
Whaddayamean, could? It is a war crime.
Legal weasel words so that afterwards they cannot be sued. But yes, it was a war crime. These days it happens all the time – like when they were bombing water, electricity and sewerage works in Iraq before & during the invasion to immiserate and sicken the people. I will always remember one account how a team of US soldiers were posted atop a hospital in Fallujah during the battle there and it was their job to shoot anybody or any ambulance trying to get to the hospital. War is the biggest crime that covers a host of other crimes.
Only the losing side are convicted of war crimes.
They hanged Goring but Bomber Harris and Curtis LeMay retired.
Exactly. It “could” be a war crime, because it “is” a war crime only if an established tribunal, following a proper procedure, asserts it is after considering the evidence.
And what court of justice is going to process the officers from the USA who planned, decided, and carried out the alleged war crime? Who is going to haul them in front of that court? What about the Hague Invasion Act?
As an empirical rule, soldiers, officers, and politicians from permanent members of the UNO Security Council do not get judged and condemned for war crimes. And in the rare case they are — see Lt. Calley: life sentence for My Lai, actually 3 days of jail, 3 years of house arrest.
So it “could be a war crime”, and formally will remain putatively so, because it will most probably never be judicially decided upon.
There was Charles Loughlin, captain of USS Queenfish, who sank a Japanese ship that was guaranteed safe passage by US on return trip in return for it delivering red cross relief supplies for POWs to Singapore. The man only got a letter of reprimand. Although he never held another sea command again, that didn’t keep it from becoming an admiral later.
Goering wasn’t hanged. He committed suicide by swallowing a cyanide capsule shortly before he was supposed to hang.
How and when he got the pill and who smuggled it in (and why) remains a mystery. Prison security was very strict, with daily multiple searches of cell and body and quite restricted visitation.
I read a book years ago that was solely about this mystery, and IIRC the author speculated that the culprit was a guard from Texas who smuggled the pill in via a jar of facial cream in return for Goering’s diamond studded watch. My memory may be off on the details (how could Goering still have control of an item like that at the time?).
BTW, Himmler also swallowed a cyanide pill when captured, and Hitler crunched on one while shooting himself (he damn sure didn’t want to be taken alive!).
The pills had been developed for distribution to U-boat crews for use if they were trapped in a submerged submarine sinking into the ocean depths.
The other possibility is somebody else is making the decisions and Trump is just being manipulated to go along with them and do the sales spiel to the public. And his sales pitch is necessarily disconnected from reality a lot of the time because he’s just the big, ignorant ass-clown put out front to sell the drama and has little understanding of what’s really going on from day to day. Protecting Israel might indeed be the motivation of whoever is really deciding the course of action, but with the Donald they reduce it to arguments more suited to his emotional needs so he will jump on the prearranged course. And, yes, it would be a miracle if Mossad and other intelligence agencies didn’t have some compromising evidence on him, given his history.
I think it’s been clear for quite a few years that Trump is an amoral sociopathic personality who is driven by deeply felt, extremely selfish emotion. His sense of injury is a confabulation. Let’s not try to pretend otherwise, as though there were some point at which this man’s ego became malevolent. He has been surrounded by enablers and scrap-feeders for all his life. He is pitiable, yes, but he is dangerous and we need to remove him and his circle of willing sycophants and grifters.
The current political problem is that the structure and motivation of the two official parties is too similar and both are invested in manipulating swing voters by appealing to deeply immature fantasies of a mythic America.
Agree that Trump is an amoral sociopathic personality who is driven by deeply felt, extremely selfish emotion, and the Barnes statements make clear that to the extent Trump’s brain had put any rational scaffolding over those emotions, the scaffolding is gone.
So there is no plan, no strategy w/r/t Iran, and thus no end in sight while Trump is in office. More than that, it renders discussion of whether shortages hit in July, August, or September moot, because if he’s still in office, we will reach September without an open Strait.
I believe that a faction wants the war to end yesterday because economy (hence the Iranians thinking negotiations were going somewhere for awhile) and as the damage builds and Trump’s inability to end it remains, an assassination of Trump (whether styled to look like natural death or not) becomes ever more likely.
Trump is not helping his cause when he said, when asked out inflation, that ‘he loves the inflation’–
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/10/inflation-report-rate
A Democrat strategist said that the attack ads write themselves.
Where are these “Democrats” about whom thou doth speaketh?
I’m still waiting for those attack ads. If they wait too long, the midterms will be over.
Dims are in disarray, hardly a monolith. But there really is no harm in preserving and keeping Powder dry until autumn- Trump Organization and MAGA enablers have an entire summer to keep digging their grave deeper and shore up the edges of the hole?
I don’t Ploymarket, but I would bet that the trajectory does not improve, and the damage deepens.
I don’t think it would hurt to run some attack ads now. Chuck Schumer made an appearance yesterday (he must have woken up from a good droolie nap) and called it “Trumpflation.” That’s a good start.
I agree that things aren’t going to get better until at least Labor Day, in terms of inflation statistics. The latest round of attacks will ensure high gas prices through July 4th weekend when demand peaks. And Trump’s job approval ratings are sinking through rock bottom into the earth’s mantle. People have short memories, but once we get into the dog days of summer, the die will have been cast.
You are quite optimistic about inflation, I hope you are right, but the evidence points elsewhere. The Unhinged Emperor says he loves inflation.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/president-says-i-love-the-inflation-annual-rate-hits-3-year-high-rcna349509
Trump just put a 100% tarriff on name- brand meds– Canadian sourced pharmacy is reaching out to clients.
That’s some adoration for inflation!
Elected official says, “Go Die! “.
Not as compelling or laden as: For Sale. Baby shoes. Never used. Bt still and all, it is a great summary of America and the world in 2026- short and brutish,
I’m not really optimistic, more like humbled by my own lack of ability to forecast the future. If you had told me that crude would only be $90 on June 11th with no end to the war in sight back in March, I would have asked for a drug test.
Taco’s act is aimed at avoiding humiliation and shame, as others have pointed out. If you like your inflation, you can keep your inflation!
schumer calling rising prices “trumpflation” begs the fact that trump acted only in the zionist entity’s interest, and not in our national interest. trump’s war on Iran remains a threat to the world economy, as so well explained here in NC, and brother, a person like me will become poorer, faster. But, didn’t schumer say, I recall, that his main purpose as senate minority leader, was to make sure that israel gets everything it needs? Not much concern for everyday americans , but plenty of tender, loving attention for the genociders. The time for politicians to shill for the zionists is coming to an end, and attack ads won’t prevent that. The attack ads will increasingly target the epstein class, and its servants, like schumer et.al. We’ll be better off for that.
national interest? BigTech, BigOil, MICIMATT/MIC, BigFinance are all pleased. It is not the interests of the US public, but the interests of oligarchy. The oligarchy support US foreign policy
Both Ds and Rs are equally bought off, no difference. Fegedaboudit: As you indirectly indicated, the US has no functioning democracy, only contrived theater to perpetuate the illusion of choice.
wasn’t the leader of the democrats in the senate(schumer) out marching in NYC with smotrich and other zio-nazi’s. celebrating the genocide… so called.
Could be that is why they can’t say anything about trump… they are playing for the same team.
But he has gotten worse. Some of us used to think that Biden was the nutty one and Trump the just kidding one. The Butler assassination attempt back during the campaign seemed to really put Trump into cloud cuckoo land.
So one shouldn’t ignore the context of the past ten years and the degree to which cryin’ Maddow and Hillary with her Russiagate have also distorted our politics and made it even more trivial and unserious. Plus Fox News has played a big role in this as well.
Deb, you could not have hit the nail more squarely on the head than this:
Rate hikes is ECB’s way to make us homeless. They really want to us to suffer, these Epstein elites.
As Jeff Snider has pointed out a few times, they can’t help making the same mistakes of the past (see Trichet 2008 and 2011).
Indeed the ECB cannot help making the same mistakes.
The ECB has a clear mandate in article 127:
To the EU price stability is more important than achieving the common goals.
Don’t blame the ECB. Blame politics and especially the German politics, which didn’t learn anything from any crises.
I disagree.
Interest rate increases are counterproductive in combatting shortage-induced price increases.
I agree with you. Shortening the money supply doesn’t help in the face of resource shortage.
But European Unions treaty is as it is, and binds the ECB to the primary objective of price stability, which is somewhere else in that document measured via the rate of inflation, and that is basically still measured as it was in germany back in the 90s.
The definition of price stability, the “inflation target”, was changed a few times, but the way to measure it stayed the same, if i’m not totally mistaken.
Rory Johnston cautions against reading too much into reports of rising “dark” shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
The problem with the “dark shipping” narrative is that production is shut-in in the GCC. You have shut-in 11 mill b/d in the Gulf, so maybe the “dark shippers” can run off with some spare inventory but there is no way you are replacing the missing production. I think there is some news that the GCC are increasing production, but that is for domestic summer cooling season internally, and will not affect global energy markets.
The other piece about “demand destruction”-refiners have lowered throughput and used reserves to keep functioning. This is not real demand destruction, although it reduces monthly crude draw, it is deferred demand. The crazy thing is not using SPR to keep prices low, the crazy thing is not to impose some kind of rationing at the same time to suppress demand. By keeping the price low, in the absence of any kind of check, you keep usage high so that when the inventory runs down, you hit the wall even harder.
Some internet rando has given me an explanation for Western .govs complacency that I had not thought about. I must not be cynical enough.
Basically it’s human nature, the political cost of imposing rationing is perceived as higher than blaming Mr. Market later when its “invisible hand” gives you the middle finger. If you get in front of the crisis and try to mitigate you will attract blame for the inevitable snags arising whereas you can just wait for the crash&burn® and pretend to be flabergasted.
Well I’m definitely lacking in the cynicism department, but also it ensures that it’ll messy.
I’m sure that’s part of it but orthodox ideology in the political class is 1. Because markets; 2. Go die. For decades now it has been anathema to interfere in the operation of markets. You know, TINA! (Except TBTF OFC).
Trump’s proclamation about secret oil transport has to be more price manipulation, imo, with things getting close to the big squeeze.
I only read the machine transcript of Barnes’ report, but I am curious whether ‘everyone’ in the white house/admin was against this as he said, or rather that everyone is now looking for a scapegoat, what with crude about to hit the fan, the most natural ass to pin the tail on being Trump’s (whose patent cognitive decline makes it that much easier).
This way, they can even try to sanitize his reputation by claiming ‘this isn’t even the real Trump that we all supported’. Best case scenario, it’s seen as just an unfortunate tragedy befalling these great men, and not at all a result of rampant corruption and being wildly out of touch with reality, like somehow dementia in one man absolves every adult listening to him of their complicity.
Thank you. The “We were all against it!” narrative sure sounds like reputation laundering to me.
From DD Geopolitics:
Comments follow, e.g.: how come they don’t want to defend “the only democracy in the middle east” ?
Hmmm. I wonder if Israel will partner with the Ukraine for training in how to effectively operate press gangs in order to fill out military requirements, along with a side order of how to manage the deployment of said war slaves.
It always seemed to me that enslaving some dispirited dude and then handing him a loaded rifle would have been counterproductive, since the dude might just decide that if he’s being sent to certain death he may as well take some of his oppressors down first, but since there does not seem to be a serious civil war going on in the Ukraine right now, maybe Ukrainian human nature is different?
It is not.
There have been several reports that those gang-pressed recruits are given ammunition for their weapons only upon reaching the front, and that sometimes even shooting practice is skipped or several cut down.
I’ve seen the same or similar reports, agreed.
But at SOME point, Ivan Warslave has a loaded rifle in his hands and presumably a bigger grudge against his own side than against the folks on the other side of No Man’s Land.
Maybe there’s lots of fragging going on and it’s just not being reported? Or being attributed to the Russians, despite all of the rounds entering the KIA’s back?
There are also many reports that the Ukrainian officers keep way behind the front, leaving the troopers to fend for themselves.
Then there are drone operators attacking those who have the deplorable idea of turning back.
Finally, in case they manage to evade those drones, there is a line of well-armed, ruthless Azov / Sich / Kraken / Aidar henchmen ready to mow down the “deserters”.
One should never assume that the enemy is stupid; the Ukrainian military cadre has most certainly thought things through to make sure that the seething soldiers recruited by force do not get a chance to unload their rage against their abductors.
All “yup,” “yup,” and more “yup.”
Let us not forget the artillery that’s ready to drop on any units that try to surrender, either.
On the other hand, I have also read reports that quite a number of gang-pressed recruits abscond during their transport between the casern and the front line.
And I, as the commanding officer of Recruit Warslave, just continue to collect his paycheck. Win-win!!!
Ooooh…..did he take his boomstick with him? Could be important later….
The Robert Barnes clip(s): must watch. Thanks for posting.
Agreed!
I saw it yesterday during random internet wanderings. I hate those kinds of scary videos…
It seems like a recurring theme with US presidents, very unlike any other country, where they develop a sort of dementia-like incapacity upon entering office. Should we be checking their meds? Their food? The air and water quality in the WH? Shouldn’t this phenomenon have a name, after all it’s a curse on the nation? The Oval Office Syndrome?
Should Americans explore some other option than having presidents or leaders? Not a bad idea, actually.
I have a friend who has worked with TMS, and he insists that all politicians should be required to pass a brain scan that detects acceptable activity in the frontal lobes, i.e., that they are not just operating on the reptile brain alone.
At some point, Republican reptile brains will work out that the way to rouse and recover the MAGA crowd to win the midterms is for DJT to be martyred. Whether the VP will make the Iran situation better or worse may not be their main concern, just the ‘lections.
I think one could argue that Biden and Trump illustrate not a pattern of office-induced dementia, but the reality that the demands of the office exceed the capacities of people as old as they were when they took office. Obama and Clinton were much younger and did not fail in the same ways that Biden and Trump have done; their failures were more conventional (and, I suppose, predictable), serving the agendas of powerful interests more than the interests of the majority of the people who voted for them.
The job ages people, and taking office toward the end of one’s working life increases the likelihood that one will age out of competency while still in office.
Barnes, in his conversation with Napolitano above, suggests that an upper age limit should be added to the Constitutional requirements for office. A good idea, IMO, though hard to implement, given the high bar for amending the Constitution. Perhaps the DJT crisis will make it easier to get this specific change through, assuming that the Republic survives the crisis.
This 100%. Just look at Obama or Clinton on their first day vs their last. The effects are hard to ignore. And the effects of aging on the human mind and body are well known. It would take someone much more exceptional than Biden, Trump, or Reagan, to enter the office at their respective ages and be up to the task. However, I’m way too cynical to think it’s going to change anytime soon, considering the number of long past retirement aged senators, congress people and other office holders we have.
“… Serving the agendas of powerful interests more than the interests of the people who voted for them” were Clinton and Obama’s signs of success, not failure. They both did what their backers intended for them, all too well.
Obama: “turns out I’m very good at killing people.” Power corrupts.
Some of us have long contended that here in the US the people who are willing to go through the process of becoming president are the last people who should be president. It has become a contest where the most mediagenic candidate is favored while the entrenched party system defeats any genuine change in policy.
This is true of politicians in general the world over and is part of why the hope of democracy tends to result in disappointment. Allowing for what amounts to self-selection isn’t a good plan. One also should ask if *any* person should have as much power as an American president. We seem fixated on pyramid structures regardless of whether they’re created via voting or otherwise.
I would lay a lot of blame on our great supreme court. With McConnell’s treachery and the Federalist Society influence the court has become unfettered in pursuit of the unitary executive project of Roberts. There has to be some regret there as it is now clear that instead of enabling the conservative revolution they have enabled the mad emperor.
But, for sure, society seems to self organize into a feudal system with an “aristocrat” at the top.
There are lots of articles and videos out there discussing how power structures tend to attract certain sociopathic and psychopathic personality types anyway, and then those types will use their “gifts” to kick and claw and fight their way into those positions and then hold those positions for as long as possible, as well as increasing more and more the power of those positions, which makes them even MORE attractive to the anti-social sorts.
A circle more vicious than usual, as it were.
I submit that Obama was not corrupted by power as those were his goals all along, same with Clinton. Unverifiable but many have said that Obama was CIA trained for the position early on. His father was a company asset in Kenya.
They were both high-level bamboozlers, rank and file dems fell for the scam.
Quelle surprise … just in time for markets to open!
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602458-stock-index-futures-higher-as-us-completes-strikes-against-iran
Employing a bit of Kremlinology, I’ll observe that this came from CENTCOM, not Taco’s Troof Social account. Maybe he’s been put back on his meds?
Hypothetically, what would happen if Trump keeled over during an intense philosophical debate with Laura
Loomer and Vance took the helm?
How much room to maneuver would Vance have?
He’s “Pete the Vampire’s” boy, but how strong a hold do the Zionists have on him?
If that doesn’t happen , how extreme will Trump’s behavior become domestically?
He is emotionally a 2 year old and it’s called the “Terrible Twos” for good reason.
Hoo Boy.
It’s going to be a lively Summer…
“…an intense philosophical debate…”
That’s a new euphemism I hadn’t heard before!
Vance would likely have very little maneuver room as trying to do anything that the Blob didn’t want done would be like trying to push a car-sized lump of Jello up a greased slope. Note the success that Trump The First had in removing troops from Syria…
See the video clip of Christopher Walken playing Hans in Seven Psychopaths for a perfect example:
• Paulo (Vance): Put your hands up!
• Hans (the Blob): No.
• Paulo (Vance): What?
• Hans (the Blob): I said no.
• Paulo (Vance): Why not?
• Hans (the Blob): Because I don’t want to.
• Paulo (Vance): But I’ve got a gun…
• Hans (the Blob): I don’t care.
• Paulo (Vance): It doesn’t make any sense!
• Hans (the Blob): Too bad!
Note: Christopher Walken at some of his bestest…. :-)
The emperor is insane, but the court sycophants are not much better. Drunk on ignorance, hubris, delusions, and infected with sadism, and bent on genocide. I don’t see any positive change if the deck chairs are re-arranged.
I will add
FIfth – the are expecting race riots in the USA this weekend, it will be a good distraction
Sixth – they wouldn’t have started this week without knowing that the world cup would be major failure
Does ” they” mean the Trump Administration? Why would they be expecting race riots in the USA this weekend? Are they working on yet newer and fresher ways to provoke race riots into existence? Does anyone think they will succeed any more than before?
Black Americans in general have been very unresponsive to every Trumpian provocation to even come out and protest. They exactly understand that the TrumpAdmin wants them out in the streets in order to attack them until they can be “pictured” as “rioting” in order to declare Martial Law and heighten and tighten the state of Rule by Decree and Control by Obedience Enforcement personnel. And they have so far maintained “stay-inside-and-rest” discipline to keep denying the TrumpAdmin the made-for-TV “riots” the TrumpAdmin has been trying to engineer.
Race riots? I haven’t checked Links today yet, so apologies if I missed it, it just feels like it’s coming out of nowhere, that or I really haven’t been paying attention.
Just spitballing…. perhaps the upcoming Juneteenth (June 19) celebrations? That’s quite a reach from the poster’s comments, but who knows?
Oh, I guess that’s possible, though I think it is unlikely, I certainly hope it doesn’t happen.
Maybe the conviction and sentencing of Karmelo Anthony in Texas?
Race riots this weekend? Did my invitation get lost in the mail? I don’t have a thing to wear!
re: Flfth, maybe you have the wrong country?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Northern_Ireland_riots
All done! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh the page and re-skim. There are a couple of additions in the section on the Iranian retaliation.
Yves, May I inquire what your take is on Brian Berletic’s position that it is the world’s corporations that are in the driver’s seat (more so than the small in comparison AIPAC lobby), that the Project for a New American Century papers are the roadmap they are using, and that no president, not just Trump, has been able to resist their dictates? That corporations are letting the AIPAC lobby deflect blame from themselves?
This does not absolve Trump or the AIPAC lobby and their supporters of any guilt. They should be held to task for their actions. Brain’s point is that the bigger picture is the international corporations are the ones we need to address first to stop the atrocities around the world.
> Second, Trump continues to believe that he can pound Iran into submission. However, the latest exchange appears to confirm that the US generally loses each time. It expends costly and scarce materiel when Iran can and does retaliate with much cheaper and more abundant weaponry. Iran is continuing to attrit the US.
In commercial terms, the gross margin in each transaction is negative.
Not to worry, the losses can be made up by increasing the volume of transactions.
Hey, it’s working for Uber, Lyft, Doordash and all the AI companies!
Oh…wait.
https://x.com/mcdunban/status/2064862783825400041?s=20
Some sketchy rumours that the helicopter incident was the casualty of a Hegseth sponsored PR stunt
Not sure if true but certainly plausible given his character
From a cynical pov, would also explain the ‘proportionate retaliation’ (against what seems unlikely to have been a deliberate Iranian attack). I saw here yesterday that supposedly Hegseth had convinced Trump to retliate too.
Where I live gas prices are lingering in the mid 3s and therefore down from their peak. Those not reading this blog could assume the crisis is all over. When reality hits it’s going to be quite the shock for them.
On the other hand polls show that economic confidence is way down. It may not be that much of a surprise.
Where I live gas at Costco is back in the $3.9x range, down from $4.3x
agreed that it may be giving people false comfort/hope, though news reports on gas prices note the dip but add still up over $1.3x since before the war, which may be driving the continued (and accurate) pessimism.
Here in sw Vermont, non-ethanol premium is $5.40, down 20 cents from the peak.
Where I live the price of gas is $6.09 and diesel is $7.29. Not so good for the wallet.
Where I live it is mid $4.40s to over $5.00. Diesel is even higher.
I just paid about 5.60 at Costco southern ca, down from 6.10 for regular, surprising because t thought we will go over the cliff before the rest of the country. No sign yet.
I wonder if we’re getting Canadian oil that used to go to asia to replace what west coast used to get from gulf.
Still driving my trusty ’96 F150 w/300,000 on the odometer. Topped off both tanks this week to the tune of $165. Thought back to teenage times buying gas for $0.25 a gallon during price wars.
Here in New Zealand, converting NZ$ to US$, we’re paying $7.92 a gallon for 91-octane – and we’re surviving.
Try 93 octane or diesel. $5.40+ in SE Texas from what relatives in the states tell me.
The Empire does not negotiate…
It might if it knew what negotiation was and how to go about it. Donnie only knows bully, brag, bluster and blow it up. Not going to get a “deal” doing that. Donnie can’t get out of his own way. with all those strings on his psyche pulling him it two or three or six different directions at the same time. he has become a cross among the late and paranoid Tiberius with the mad grandiosity of Caligula and the brutality of Commodus and isn’t it an obvious tell that Roman emperors are the measuring stick.
Re SPR operational minimums etc., apparently Trump will draw the SPR down much further than now levels, what he’s taken so far just a bit over 1/3 what he plans:
“The administration has drained 66 million barrels—as of June 5—and counting from the SPR since the war in Iran began, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Trump has authorized the overall release of 172 million barrels over several months. ”
https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-depleted-lowest-level-since-reagan/
Also, the delusional ‘thinking’ in Trump’s brain has gone up a notch, things could get much uglier tonight/very soon:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/trump-says-us-will-seize-kharg-island-and-other-oil-infrastructure-points.html
It is what he has wanted all along – Iran’s oil. He use to talk a fair bit about it at the start of this war but not lately. He would like nothing more than to break up Iran and have all those oil fields fall within a new statelet that the US would own and run – with he and his family getting their cut of the profits.
Perhaps Trump will now fully embrace the wise, prudent, thoughtful advice coming from disinterested American patriots with decades of experience defending the homeland. I’m talking about retired generals Jack Keane (83) and Keith Kellogg (82).
Nope. TACO!
Therapist to President Trump: “Are the Iranian negotiators here in this room with us now ?”
Then, after the session, Adelson says to Trump: “The IRGC isn’t real, it can’t hurt you.”
Amazing how quickly the US electorate were trained to expect an actual US president to just lie about everything.
All politics is a lying contest. Always has been. It’s only just now that the naked rudiments of the sausage grinder have become too necessary to conceal, while on the other hand the improvements in relatively unsupervised peer-to-peer communication has made the concealing national mythology too costly and difficult to shove down people’s throats unhindered. Thus the internal information attacks against social media, computation, communications technology, AI, free speech, etc. qua institutions, in the register of mainline Protestant moral sentiment.
“The compulsion to lie when literally everyone knows you are lying is the defining political pathology of our time…”
— Jeffrey St Clair, Counterpunch
The darkest truth in the present fiasco is that about a quarter of Americans support Trump unconditionally. These are people who we would like to believe are misinformed. They are not misinformed. They are cruel, stupid, dishonest, and willing to follow Trump’s orders even to their own destruction. There is no Epstein revelation or military catastrophe that would shake their confidence in Trump. These people support a gangster President because they have gangster ethics and aspirations. They are the American equivalent of the “good Germans” who supported the Third Reich.
Up to a point the unconditional folks will only have their beliefs strengthened by contradictory events, evidence, . . .
Denying until too late. Maybe for us all.
When musk was in his prime with doge, a friend told me that he had gone into a discount store and got into a conversation with a clerk. She was an enthusiastic supporter of the world’s richest man, and trump too, of course, and said that musk didn’t need any money, and that his service was entirely unselfish. And she noted that musk had uncovered great deal of fraud in the social security program, and that at least a million people over 150 years old were cheating the taxpayers by collecting monthly checks.
She believed that millions of americans were over 150 years old, literally.
I am so sick of the claim that people in the heartland are so real, and so honest, as compared to those living on the coasts. Many have the brain of a pre-Cambrian rock.
It’s not (just) stupidity: as HH says, these are vicious, morally blind people, eager to be led wherever their perceived Alpha Dog takes them… the product of edge suburbs, “Christian” academies and constipated Petit Bourgeois (Trump’s true base) close-mindedness.
But Zero Hedge swore this was true! Of course their implication was that the 150 year olds were actually Somalian fraudsters or some similar racist insinuation.
25-30% of Americans get all their information from Fox, OANN, right-aligned YouTube channels, Sinclair radio stations, etc. If you want to criticize them for depending on those information sources, that is a valid point, I guess. But the alternative is media sources that solemnly tell us Trump is selling out the country to POOtin and Russia blew up its own Nordstream pipeline just to be pissy and Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris are genius visionary leaders and you’re a racist, sexist, homophobe if you don’t totally believe that. The information sphere is thoroughly polluted with garbage stories that only have axes to grind and don’t even talk about the real issues, even to pick a side, over 90% of the time.
“In short, what people think they want is news, but what they really crave is olds.”
― Terry Pratchett, The Truth
People tend to want confirmation of what they already believe – I’d suggest it’s a normal human operating condition, it’s so universal. And so much of that belief is actually faith, rather than objectively demonstrable facts. New stuff that challenges that faith can be scary – that’s why, in the extreme, we burn heretics rather than admitting that there might be better viewpoints. No Other? No viewpoint. No problem, then.
This is not limited to religion – see Ignaz Semmelweis or Galileo for textbook studies of “science at some of its finest.”
So, living here in the heart of Trumpland, there is another angle. The people here truly believe that it would be worse under the Democrats. They hear Carville’s screeds about packing the Supreme Court, making DC and PR states, gerrymandering, and creating a permanent Dem government and are terrified of that future. They fear that their voices will never be heard again. Yes, we all know that there is a uniparty and it doesn’t really matter who’s in charge (I am 100% certain that we would be at war with Iran even if Harris won as she is just as beholden to AIPAC as Trump) but these people view that every so many years “their people” are in charge.
So although there are some number of “Trump no matter what” there is a much larger group that feels that they have to support the Repubs or the Dems will take over and rig the system against them.
They aren’t wrong, the system is rigged against them. Us too. It seems unlikely to me that nature distributes intelligence based on geography.
Do not discount the effect of Covid induced brain damage on both the “Leadership” class and the population in general.
There has been a noticeable increase in risky behavior across the board, it’s very noticeable in driving behavior as one example.
This has been two US stooge-presidents in a row now affected with declining cognitive functions after taking office. I don’t believe in coincidences anymore! 🧐
But you forgot about this dimwit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhmdEq3JhoY
Kakistocracy is just indicative of a declining, corrupt society.
Obomber was just as bad, some say even more so, but he was a slick-talking, silver-tongued devil
3 is a pattern, could be the Deep State and three letter agencies trying to make a puppet out of each President if they don’t completely play along like ‘bama.
Well, you can add Reagan to that list and draw the conclusion that maybe age has plenty to do with it.
0720 PDT
Women Who Fled Iran Are to Be Deported to Central African Republic, Lawyers Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/11/world/africa/deportations-central-african-republic-migrants-iran-women.html
Three Indian sailors confirmed dead in US strike off Oman, separate incident reported
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/all-three-missing-indian-seafarers-dead-after-us-strike-tanker-off-oman-coast-2026-06-11/
I called it here in the comments a few weeks ago that it wasn’t Iran responsible for the attacks on ships off Oman’s coast.
Shows the Omanis and Indians what being
alliesvassals of the Empire gets you! 😏hat tip Trita:
https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/object-lessons/
0725 PDT
Iran’s media posts photos purportedly showing US bomb remains at destroyed reservoir site
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/10/middleeast/iran-water-reservoir-us-bomb-hnk-intl
‘2 Hellfire Missiles’: US Admits Attack On 3rd Ship With Indian Crew In Gulf
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/2-hellfire-missiles-us-admits-attack-on-3rd-ship-with-indian-crew-in-gulf-11622960/amp/1
Iran threatens Elon Musk’s companies in Middle East: Iranian state media
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/iran-threatens-elon-musks-companies-in-middle-east-iranian-state-media.html
U.S. becomes India’s top gas supplier, as Iran war cuts it off from the Gulf
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/us-india-lng-lpg-supply.html
I used to think that the Unhinged Emperor shared some similarities with the Roman Emperor Commodus, but now I think he also shares a lot with Nero: (history rhymes)
Sexual perversity, (DT has likely raped young girls and perhaps beat them, and who knows what else) Nero’s perversity could have been even worse.
Megalomania/narcissism/insanity. Nero had many statues, monuments and buildings built to honor himself The DT has Arc de Trump, golden Colossus statue of himself, renaming Kennedy center etc. (see Nero’s Colossus)
Corruption: Nero reportedly used public funds and land to build his Domus Aurea, for example. (DT building ballroom, bunker etc., and reportedly appropriating public funds for his personal use)
That’s just an amusing aside, but it looks like most US dwellers have not internalized the sheer scale, and depth of the depravity, corruption, lawlessness, and sheer insanity of the current regime in Washington.
Yves:
I had the misfortune to listen to most of the Hegseth presser in the second half. It really is…something.
And the court sycophants are not much better: Crusader Pete, to me at least, needs to be put in a Strait Jacket (pun intended) and locked in a padded room to protect himself and others from harm. To mix US and UK slang: Dude is a bloody nuttah!
At least this is not boring, and the tragic entertainment is over the top.
Reply ↓
At risk of another comparison, Trump and this current regime is also starting to resemble the absolute chaos and dysfunction (domestic economy, militarily, international relations, corruption at all levels of society, substance abuse epidemic, declining living standards, etc.) of the late Qing Dynasty. Conditions will likely worsen
I appreciate what Robert Barnes had to say about Trump, especially that he fears humiliation. However, not all fear is irrational and as Mearsheimer often says, the Israel lobby is powerful. Chas Freeman, asked by Obama to Chair his National Security Council, withdrew his name after an anti-semitism campaign was launched against him by the Israel lobby.
Nonetheless, as Trump cares about Trump only, and there can never be enough adulation and money to satisfy him, seizing Iranian oil is foremost in his mind. Trump told reporters that Iran will need to spend more than $1 trillion to repair its country and the US will take part in the construction while Iran will pay for it by giving us half their oil. Trump justice means Iran’s oil goes to whoever is bold enough to take it, and his inner circle of zionist advisors and Netanyahu want him t believe it.
His lust for conquest prevents him from grasping the whole he’s in, and nobody will tell him, at least not in a convincing way, and we’ll go over the precipice because of it.
Taking half of Iran’s oil: https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-suggests-stealing-half-iran-195753345.html?
Napolitano used to say that Trump told him he would not believe what was in thr real JFK files when the former pressed him about releasing the information. You gotta wonder what really happened in Butler and to Charlie “the Horse” Kirk.
“He’s driven entirely by fear,” as Barnes says. Yes indeed, and fear makes him act unpredictably depending on who he’s most afraid of at any given moment. To that you can add stress, psychological immaturity, essential unfitness for the intellectual and managerial demands of the job, and ignorance of many of the basic realities. The conclusion is that there will never be an orderly exit from this mess, unless and until Trump goes in some fashion. It’s not a sufficient condition but it is a necessary one.
If I may, I’d just refer to my new essay (in Links today, thanks Conor) which, although not specifically about Trump, argues that we pay far too little attention to psychological factors, character flaws and the sheer stress of modern politics in evaluating what’s happening and what might happen.
I agree, as I wrote above
First, it suggests that Trump regards Iran as the element of his current impasse that he is most likely to be able to bend to his will, as opposed to Israel.
The problem is that this is not good for Israel, either. If the US cannot remain in the ME and if it cannot defeat or come to terms with Iran, Israel is toast barring a massive change in its policies.
Blackmailing somebody to do your bidding is absolutely stupid if your bidding is suicidal to begin with
“… Israel is toast barring a massive change in its policies.”
One can always hope.
I just want to remind everyone that on Tuesday, Trump said that there would be a peace deal in “two or three” days, and it is now two days later. I suppose a miracle could occur by tomorrow AM, but I would not count on that.
Nothing a few micro-nukes might induce. Or, the micro nuke result would generate a no-peace deal.
A deal or a no-deal, is still a deal?
What a deal!
Let’s make a Deal!
War. What is it good for? Absolutely nuthin’! Unless, of course…
Or another serving of TACOs?
https://www.rt.com/news/641439-us-iran-war-escalation/
Sorry I stopped with “Trump said”…Judge Napolitano pointed out yesterday that the Unhinged Emperor has said over 30 TIMES, that a “deal” with Iran was coming very soon. Then in the next breath says he’s going to attack them. Just hours ago he threatened more attacks. As the Iranians say, we don’t listen to the blah blah, only actions.
Actually, per CNN as of 2 days, ago, 37 times.
Even worse, it looks like his short-term memory is almost gone.
My favorite “Trump said…” is when he goes on about how Iran’s military is defeated, all their ships at the bottom of the ocean, economy failing etc. and then in his blast he’s yammering on about some imaginary deal. Why would you need to make a “deal” if you’ve defeated Iran? Even the dimmest MAGA has to realize something doesn’t add up there.
If you ever have the misfortune to visit the patriots[dot]win website, from where the former reddit the_donald community migrated, you will see that they don’t care. I check from time to time to see how the MAGA faithful are reacting to the preaching of the maniac in chief and it’s just more and more ‘winning’ as usual.
1015 PDT
Iran War Adds to AI Boom as Demand for Gas Turbines Rises Further, Siemens Energy Says
https://energynow.ca/2026/06/iran-war-adds-to-ai-boom-as-demand-for-gas-turbines-rises-further-siemens-energy-says/
1020 PDT
America Says Strait of Hormuz Traffic Is Rising. On Wednesday, the Number of Ships Getting Through Hit Zero
Washington says traffic through Hormuz is “rising very meaningfully.” The tracking data says four ships made it through on Tuesday — and on Wednesday, zero. Crews that try are running a war zone unprotected, the world’s top maritime official warns, and China’s hidden cushion is running out.
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/america-says-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-is-rising-on-wednesday-the-number-of-ships-getting-through-hit-zero/
While occasionally offering useful insights, I still find it unseemly and cowardly that people like Barnes, Mercouris, Christoforou, et al are now critics of Trump, having served his agenda in the past, and still fundamentally believing in its premises. Barnes in particular, with his “This isn’t the Trump I knew” bs.
It reeks of a combination of CYA and At-Your-Feet-Or-At-Your Throat.
Yes, Trump is older, and presumably more impulsive/less “competent,” but he’s still the same person he’s always been, if only more so… always and still: a dishonest, pathologically conniving Zionist and servant of Empire. To even suggest it was ever otherwise, one has to be either deluded or extremely dishonest.
Yeah, if Barnes and others are gullible enough to have believed obvious BS, then I’m afraid I can’t place much credibility in their judgement. At least journalists like Caitlin Johnstone, Chris Hedges, Garland Nixon, Max Blumenthal and others used critical thinking skills.
This war is truly, incredibly, dumb
Trump cancels scheduled strikes on Iran today (BBC)
You know when this stuff goes out, because you get Trump bars on S&P futures. We popped 60 handles in 2 minutes. That’s a Trump bar.
The war is over. Again.
I’ve lost track of how many times we’ve won.
Diesel is gonna be $10/gal and this guy is still gonna be wanking.
That’s pretty lit that he got every single country on board, including Israel! Also very clear that this is transactional in Trump’s mind.
I guess he’s gonna sign this himself in an empty room with chairs labeled for every non-participating country as stand ins.
And he got Iran to agree, without even transferring any funds as that precondition of any talks happening. Magic.
“…still gonna be wanking”
Well as George Carlin would say, at least he’ll have a little something to show for it at the end, eh ? If it ever ends…
Equity markets just turned up!
Brent crude futures down $3 to $90.
I wonder who is “top Iranians?”
Imo msm carries this charade because msm owners support the war but, like trump, want to minimize damage to markets, or at least delay that to avoid worse pop opposition as long as possible.
It’s definitely looney tunes, with apologies to Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, and Elmer Fudd.
Rabbit Season!
Duck Season!
Rabbit Season!!
Duck Season!!
Ceasefire!!
Bomb ’em!!
(Taco plays both roles …)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-k5J4RxQdE
Not sure if this has been commented on but several sources are suggesting Turkey may initiate military action against Israel due to it’s concerns not only about Israeli actions in Lebanon and Syria but also in Africa and the Mediterranean. Interesting implications if a NATO country engages in a conflict which finds it opposed to the US. https://cdm.press/news/middle-east/2026/04/12/breaking-erdogan-says-turkey-may-enter-war-against-israel/
My guess is it’s just noise to appease local pop that hates what Syria is doing. Note the pipeline across turkey carrying oil to Israel.
Erdogan has no credibility and Turkiye is apparently still doing business with Israel. Prof. Marandi said yesterday that they are still providing Israel with petroleum products via Baku. So, “Erdogan says” is likely just more BS from Turkey trying to play both sides as usual.
As a poster just noted the other day…when Erdogan stops selling izzys oil, then maybe he might be serious.
Yes, but…
If Israel doesn’t STFU for a bit and if it continues to get decimated by Iran, and if the US needs to withdraw from the region, you can see how Israel will have increasing problems from the north.
We are nowhere near that point yet, but it’s hard to see how things get better for Israel without dramatic changes in policies (which will flat out not happen)
Now on AJ live feed, the emperor says we have a “deal”. Does that mean more attacks imminent?
“Why is my leg wet?”
“It’s raining”
Kalibrated
Forwarded from
Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 ⚡ – “According to the sources, Iranian officials told several countries on Thursday that the Tehran talks produced an agreement in principle, but Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei still needed to give final approval.
The sources noted that both the Iranians and the Qataris had emphasized that the U.S. strikes overnight significantly increased Iranian suspicions about Trump’s real intentions.
According to three sources briefed on the talks, the Qataris and the Iranians believed on Wednesday that they had reached an agreed-upon text that the U.S. would also accept,” – Axios.
Kalibrated
Forwarded from
Middle East Spectator — MES
— ❗️ 🇺🇸 / 🇮🇷 Fars News Agency:
‘No text for an initial Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. has been approved, according to an informed source close to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s negotiating team’
@Middle_East_Spectator
If Axios is reporting it, you know it’s not true..
It’s all over the place. Did somebody buy calls?🤣
This would be a dangerous drinking game, especially looking at the years this game has gone on with Russia.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/11/world/iran-war-trump-us-israel/
“President Trump veered over the course of Thursday from threatening a third straight day of strikes on Iran to abruptly calling them off and then announcing that a peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend. He did not specify exactly what the deal would entail, but said it was “in pretty final shape.”
Iran’s state broadcaster, quoting the spokesman for the country’s foreign ministry, said that “nothing has been finalized.” Earlier this week, Mr. Trump had claimed a peace deal was imminent, but hours later, the two countries attacked each other.
Speaking in the Oval Office on Thursday afternoon, Mr. Trump said that a deal could be signed “maybe over the weekend, in Europe,” and that if so, Vice President JD Vance would take part. The president is hosting a U.F.C. fight on the White House’s South Lawn for his 80th birthday on Sunday…”
Some YouTube channels already have their click bait up about “Trump” making concessions. 🤣🤣
Latest from Sal Merclogliano of What’s Going on with Shipping? is interesting. An analysis of whether it could be true that oil is being snuck out of the SoH.
The Secret US “Dark Fleet”: Breaking the Strait of Hormuz Blockade?
1302 PDT
Slovenia lifts ban on arms trade with Israel
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-899161
US producer prices rose 6.5% on higher energy prices, largest yearly jump since 2022
https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-producer-prices-rose-65-higher-energy-prices-133780472
Trump assessed by 22 medical specialists at latest checkup; The White House has declined to identify the physicians.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/10/trump-sees-22-medical-specialists-white-house-hasnt-said-why/
1310 PDT
Now we know why JD Vance has been sidelined
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/now-we-know-why-jd-vance-been-sidelined-4470647
The original from the New York Times referred to in the above article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/magazine/epstein-files-trump-white-house-takeaways.html
Here’s Sal at “What’s Going On With Shipping” discussing Trump’s “secret operation”:
The Secret US “Dark Fleet”: Breaking the Strait of Hormuz Blockade?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ef4eGaZky0E
So now the West has a “dark fleet” just like Russia? Can we come up with better terms?
Sounds like some ships and oil are getting out, but it’s not very much.
Fars (via telegram), suggesting a deal is possible. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Trump’s narrative of “Iran’s acceptance” versus reality on the ground
🔹As the US tactically retreats from new additions to the draft agreement, Donald Trump is increasing his threatening tone on social media, trying to create a narrative of “Iran surrendering to bombing” – a narrative that is far from the reality on the ground during the negotiations.
🔹According to Fars correspondent’s information, about two weeks ago, the text of the draft memorandum of understanding between the negotiating teams was almost finalized and was only awaiting final approval in Tehran and Washington. However, during this review, Trump once again demanded the addition of several new details, contrary to the agreement of the American negotiators who had accepted the Iranian draft. In response, Iran announced that it would not review the new text and practically did not respond to the US.
🔹After that, scattered tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and southern Iran, as well as the attack on Dahiyeh, effectively silenced the negotiation file.
🔹But on Wednesday, the Qatari team entered the fray as a mediator and announced the US’s withdrawal from the new additions; meaning a return to the original text that was still awaiting final approval in Iran.
🔹At the same time as this noticeable US retreat, Trump launched a media campaign and threatening rhetoric to try to make it appear that Iran had backed down under the pressure of the bombing. But the reality is that up until now, not only has Iran not given a final response, but it is the US that has returned to its previous demand.
🔹Of course, it seems that given that the US has accepted the text proposed by Iran, there is a possibility of re-examining this text.
If true, seems to suggest a deal is on the table, and is waiting on the Supreme Leader’s approval.
Too many open threads though. Israel say they know nothing about this and cannot be expected to abide by a deal that includes Lebanon for one thing.
At best it may be a slightly firmer ceasefire with a framework for further talks?
I can’t imagine any agreement that could satisfy both sides on Hormuz.
We see. Weekend is coming so deal talk normal I guess. Still time for Trump to move the goalposts.
Trump says US ‘settlement’ with Iran could soon end war and open Strait of Hormuz (CNN)
I imagine that is news to the supreme leader.
Iran’s FM spokesman says Iran firm on ‘red lines’ (Aljazeera)
It would be lunacy to give up control of the strait, so either this is a serious capitulation by Trump, or more Market Pump. Stringing Trump along continues to work in Iran’s favor. “Much of” is doing a lot of work here, as Lambert would often point out.
So they agree on all the key points that they agree to, and disagree on all of the sticking points, on which neither can yield for their own respective reasons.
Good times.
A 3rd option: Qatar as mediator is overselling each side’s willingness to the other and glossing over the sticking points.
And absolutely categorically: if there isn’t a deal on Hormuz which allows a full(ISH) flow of shipping then it’s not a deal at all. Forget the nukes, which have long been doable. Trump (and the world economy) needs Hormuz open and safe enough for shipper’s to use it.
Forget the nukes? How?
The uranium is a major problem area. The US has wanted that issue dealt with up front, while Iran says that is a second tier item. I don’t see how that is doable under the current circumstances.
The US (an behalf of Israel) has the core interest: no nuclear weapons for Iran.
This is already Iranian policy and pre-war they were very willing to be flexible on proving it and ways to de-enrich uranium.
The positions are not incompatible, they just need to agree on the details.
(It would also require the US to ignore Israeli moving the goalposts which aim to prevent a deal)
Remember: Iranian nukes were the FALSE pretext for this war. Trump needs the appearance of a victory on this point but given Iran isn’t seeking nukes that isn’t impossible.
Iran’s pre-war and post-war positions on Uranium have changed. While it is still unclear if they have changed their official policy with regards to possessing nuclear weapons, they have made it very clear they have the right to enrich Uranium to whatever percentage they deem appropriate. This is a red line for US and Israel, just like it is a red line for Iran that they get to control their own destiny with regards to such material.
I would argue this is the very definition of incompatible.
Things have changed so much since February, that to some degree, it no longer matters what the pretext for the war
There may be some there there:
Iran’s approval of US deal ‘relatively high’ after Washington ‘accepts’ Tehran’s proposed agreement text: Media
If the deal is real, the US has to constrain Israel
We shall see
To your point, Al Jazeera has the tweet below on its live update page. Supposedly Trump told Israel they got everything they wanted despite Iran saying on the same page that their red lines must be respected. These claims below sure sound like those red lines have been crossed.
Netanyahu’s office says Trump committed to removing Iran’s enriched uranium
Netanyahu’s office says Trump spoke with the Israeli PM about the “emerging memorandum of understanding with Iran to enter negotiations”.
“Although Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement at the conclusion of the negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, the limitation of missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region,” it said in a post on X.
If the US is flying an increasing number of AWACs tonight, then Iran has clearly really made some holes in American/Israeli/etc. early warning systems. I don’t think Israel can be too picky at the moment about the terms under which they de facto surrender (although they will no doubt something really stupid before they end up surrendering for real under whatever guise).
I am actually a little surprised that neither Israel nor the US are worried about a coup at this moment…their militaries and ICs must be mad as hell.
Why should anyone believe this source based on the other information out there?
I really feel like people are trying to will something positive into existence based on zero evidence.
Because it’s quoting Fars which is the Iranian unofficial news channel.
Because the quotes from Iranian officials are more positive sounding about a deal than we have seen previously.
EG:
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The bulk of the text of the understanding has been finalized
The Fars Telegram channel is hinting that a deal is close, if not quite as close as Trump is saying.
This doesn’t mean it will happen. It is a new tone though.
The problem is I don’t who “they” are.
Axios routinely states they are quoting official sources. Without more details, I have no idea if this outlet is any more reliable.
FARS is an Iranian Media Agency very close to the IRGC. The link I gave literally has video of the Foreign Ministry Spokesman delivering the quote included.
If you cannot see the difference between that and Axios’s bullshit, I don’t know what to tell you.
Read through the FARS link and you will see a number of credible quotes.
The source is “quoting” FARS. It is not FARS itself, quite the difference.
You do realize I’m responding to Johnnyme, right?
Yes.
You asked why you should trust the Andalou story. Trust nothing, but verify.
Andalou is quoting (annoyingly without linking to) a public source (Fars). Usually with a brief search one can find the original public statements referenced in news stories. Which is the FARS link I gave you.
In general Andalou is a lot more reliable and less prone to make up shit than Axios.
The most often referenced Axios stories are from Barak Ravid and quote “officials” who spoke only to Ravid. There are no public sources to verify its not just a creation of his Mossady mind.
Tl;dr: verifiable public sources > unnamed off the record quotes.
I certainly don’t know what to believe
The narrative that the US had basically agreed to deal and then backed off and escalated sounds plausible to me
Then Iran threatened to respond to Trump’s latest threat by seriously mining the strait; I would believe that could have driven Trump/pro-peace-save-economy Trump handler faction back to the agreed text
I’m not saying those things are true just it’s plausible.
But they’re also irrelevant unless we shut down Israel.
I don’t find that plausible as much as I would be thrilled
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/11/770281/Iran–Despite-US-aggression,-core-agreement-text-ready
Also from Iran’s news channel: “ the text has almost been finalized in its major parts.” according to the FM spokesperson.
Looks like they’re trying to deport Trita Parsi, often quoted here in Yves’s roundups:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trita-parsi-targeted-trump
More rather than less oil transiting the SoH during the closure would help explain its price. I understand that the future price can be talked down by heralding an impending deal, but the spot price is less than $100 which I believe is less than most analysts predicted given a multiple month closure. The absence of tankers moving through the Strait on various tracking sites is often given as an indication of the closure but a captain might decide to turn off the ship’s transponder.
Based on last night’s missile strikes, will the IRGC issue three more Services Orders for Ace Hegseth’s Medal of Fath for his responsibility for taking out 50 US aircraft (and still counting).
Trump is a con artist The rule of thumb is to never, ever, believe what a con artist says. Apparently, he is becoming or has become a delusional con artist. The latter, most likely, matches one of the objectives of Iran’s operational strategies, i.e leadership that is incapable of making rational decisions and is forever making blunders on end.
In aviation parlance, the US citizen should be advised to put his or her head between his or her kness and kiss his or her arse goodbye.
Some other things said today:
https://houseofsaud.com/trump-kharg-island-threat/
“…Trump issued two statements on Kharg Island within hours of each other on June 11, 2026. The first appeared on Truth Social at approximately 11:12 AM EDT. The second came during a live phone call with Fox & Friends, broadcast shortly after.
The Truth Social post stated: “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America.” The post was reported by Raw Story, CNBC, and the Times of Israel.
The Fox & Friends call introduced a different register entirely. “My preference has always been — take Kharg Island,” Trump said, according to the Washington Times. “I don’t know that America has the stomach for it, to be honest with you.” He added: “I don’t know that America has the appetite to do what I would really much prefer doing,” as reported by Al-Monitor…”
TACO Thursday, 39 imminent best peace deal with Iran. No nukes!
I suspect this has to do with the SpaceX IPO. My offer is $1.35……
When, tomorrow, does Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon IDF withdrawal happen!
This is no different than the culmination of firing last June?
Peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time,
peace in our time, peace in our time, peace in our time.
Word.