Syriza Walks Back Initial Defiance
Victims of austerity and their allies around the world may be placing too much hope in Syriza.
Read more...Category Archives: Currencies
Mathew D. Rose: Hope for Greece, and Perhaps for Europe Too
Monday morning I encountered a word in a number of newspapers that I have not read regarding the European Union for years: Hope. The occasion was the election in Greece. I suddenly became aware of how long much of this continent has been living in what appears to be a never ending-crisis.
Read more...How Much Success is Syriza Likely to Have in Ending Austerity?
While the election results in Greece have sent shockwaves through European technocratic elites and have rattled investors, it is not clear how successful Syriza will be in getting big enough changes implemented in Eurozone policies and its own bailout terms to end the humanitarian crisis, rather than just create the sort of bounce off the bottom growth that analysts like to depict as progress. Indeed, once you walk though the likely bargaining positions of the various parties, there is little reason to be optimistic on Syriza’s behalf.
Read more...The ECB’s QE Decision
The European Central Bank has just launched full-fledged quantitative easing. This column argues that the ECB’s watershed decision highlights both the strengths and the persistent vulnerabilities of the Eurozone. The limited-risk-sharing provision flags the need for greater fiscal union; and governments should use the respite that QE provides to launch much-needed structural reforms.
That’s their story and they’re sticking to it.
Read more...Michael Hudson: The Crisis in Europe and the Machinations of the Rentier Class
This Boom/Bust show features a wide-ranging talk with Michael Hudson about the impact of the Swiss currency shock, the pending Greek elections, the effects of sanctions, and what the deteriorating Ukraine economy means for Europe.
Read more...Swiss National Bank Shock: Biggest US Retail Currency Broker’s Equity Wiped Out; Others Suffer Major Losses
Even though traders say they like volatility, their attitude is straight out of Goldilocks: : not only is too little too bad, but so is too much. The recent oil price plunge has sent rattles across financial markets around the world, with more knock-on effects expect as shale gas players start to show signs of stress.
And today’s big event was so unforeseen as to verge on being in black swan terrain. The Swiss National Bank, which had a program in place to keep the euro from falling below 1.20 to the Swiss franc.
The Swiss National Bank abruptly terminated the cap today. The currency move was brutal.
Read more...Yanis Varoufakis: Why He is Running for Greek Parliament on the Syriza Ticket
I’m putting up the entire Boom/Bust show in which Yanis Varoufakis appears, in part because the introductory section discusses how stressed oil producers may use secured lending to borrow more money in an effort to ride out the price bust. That would lead to a further drop in the price of any junk bonds or market value of any existing loans on those companies, since the new secured borrowing would be senior to the existing debt.
Read more...Hebdo Fallout: Greater Odds of Frexit as Marine Le Pen’s Star Rises
The odds of France leaving the Eurozone, or Frexit, have just gone from a tail risk to plausible thanks to the boost the Hedbo shootings have given to the leader of France’s far right party, the National Front, and its leader, Marine Le Pen. Opinion polls indicate that that she would win the first round of a presidential ballot were elections held now.
Read more...Mathew D. Rose: It is Not a Eurozone Crisis, but a European Union Crisis
What the Germans seem to have in mind is a financial blitzkrieg against Greece should Syriza win, reducing the land to economic rubble and dust, an example for other potential refractory Euro nations.
Read more...Oil Falls Below $50, S&P Down Nearly 2% (Updated)
Nothing like the smell of deflation in the morning…
Read more...Bill Mitchell: Demystifying Modern Monetary Theory
Yves here. This is a useful and accessible talk by one of the leading Modern Monetary Theory developers, Bill Mitchell of the University of Newcastle, interviewed here by Marshall Auerback of INET.
This talk is wide-ranging, and starts by pointing out that in key ways, Modern Monetary Theory incorporates basic concepts that have perversely omitted from mainstream macroeconomics, largely for ideological reasons. This conversation does not get much into central bank operations, which is the basis for MMT’s claim that it is a much more accurate representation of how monetary operations work for a fait currency issuer like the US than textbook or popular press accounts that are based on outdated “gold standard” notions.
In typical Australian fashion, Mitchell is blunt, so I suspect readers will find this talk to be more lively and accessible than typical economists’ fare.
Read more...Yanis Varoufakis: Greek and European Prospects for 2015
Yves here. Yanis Varoufakis discusses the prospects for negotiations between a new, likely Szyria-led Greek government and the Troika over the next Greek restructuring. Varoufakis in effect argues that the Greeks should go hardball because the Trokia’s demands are unreasonable. We’ll find out soon enough whether the incoming government has the public support and the guts to do so.
As much as a Grexit would be a lose-lose of major proportions, Varoufakis argues that the logic of current Eurzone arrangements is driving members to a break-up. Indeed, some observers believe that Germany would like to kick Greece out of the Eurozone. As Marshall Auerback put it by e-mail:
Read more...As far as Germany goes, let me quote Macbeth:
I am in blood
Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more,
Returning were as tedious as go o’er.
Putin: Battered, Bruised But Not Broken
Yves here. The triumphalism among Western commentators as the ruble plunged last week is more than a little cringe-making. We’re not yet in Two Minute Hate territory yet, but this feels like a warmup. Robert Parry provides an insanity check:
Official Washington’s “group think” on the Ukraine crisis now has a totalitarian feel to it as “everyone who matters” joins in the ritualistic stoning of Russian President Putin and takes joy in Russia’s economic pain, with liberal economist Paul Krugman the latest to hoist a rock…
Indeed, much of what Krugman finds so offensive about Putin’s Russia actually stemmed from the Yeltsin era following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 when the so-called Harvard Boys flew to Moscow to apply free-market “shock therapy” which translated into a small number of well-connected thieves plundering Russia’s industry and resources, making themselves billionaires while leaving average Russians near starvation.
The piece goes on to debunk in considerable detail the caricature of Putin presented in America, the most important element being the charge that Putin was the aggressor in Ukraine and is therefore getting what he deserved. Mind you, Putin is still an authoritarian, but we don’t find that objectionable in many of our putative allies, starting with the Saudis.
Read more...Michael Pettis: Is China Really Turning Away from the Dollar?
Yves here. This important post by Michael Pettis addresses whether the efforts of the Chinese to diversify their foreign investments away from the dollar will be a negative for the US. Pettis is skeptical of that thesis, and some of his reasons are intriguing. Like quite a few experts, he doubts that China’s role in sponsoring an infrastructure bank will be a game changer, and he also points out, as we have regularly, that the Chinese cannot deploy their foreign exchange reserves domestically without driving the renminbi to the moon (via selling foreign currencies to buy RMB), which is the last thing they want to have happen. A more surprising, but well argued thesis is that reduced Chinese purchases of US bonds would be a net plus for the US.
Get a cup of coffee. This is a meaty, important article.
Read more...How Putin’s Fealty to the Washington Consensus Made His Currency Crisis Worse
Who needs sanctions when intellectual capture produces such swimming results? The US-led restructuring of the Russian economy after the USSR fell is a gift that keeps on giving.
Hoisted from comments:
Read more...