Category Archives: Currencies

Jayati Ghosh: None of the Experts Saw India’s Debt Bubble Coming. Sound Familiar?

So now India is the latest casualty among emerging economies. Over the past 10 days, the rupee has slid to its lowest-ever rate, and the Indian economy may well be on the verge of a full-blown currency crisis. In this febrile situation, it is open season for rumours and pessimistic predictions, which then become self-fulfilling.

This means that even if there is a slight market rally, investors quickly work themselves into even more gloom. Each hurriedly announced policy measure (raising duties on gold imports, some controls on capital outflows, liberalising rules for capital inflows and so on) has had the opposite of the desired effect. Everything the government does seems to be too little, too late – or even counterproductive.

Fed’s Jackson Hole Participants to QE-Exit Whacked Emerging Economies: Drop Dead

The latest Fed confab at Jackson Hole is demonstrating that central bankers were so keen to avoid taking much blame for the global financial crisis that they also failed to learn critical lessons from it. That lapse in turn is directly related to the present emerging markets upheaval that has the potential to morph into something worse.

Austerity Claims Victory in Europe

Yves here. Even though Delusional Economics has moved into a guardedly positive stance on Europe, the “recovery” is halting enough in Europe that there are still quite a few analysts on the other side of the fence.

European Pundits Starting to Give Up on the Eurozone

We’ve been pointing out for some time that Germany has refused to budge from wanting contradictory things relative to the Eurozone. Now something still has to break, but some of my correspondents who’ve just been in Europe now think that we will see a political crisis in Europe before we see an economic one, and that, like objects in your rear view mirror, may be closer than it appears.

More Good News from Europe

Yves here. I don’t want to be withholding good news when there is good news to be had. But remember, the ISM results for Europe are just over 50, which is the difference between growth and contraction. So in this context, “good news,” given how high unemployment is in the Eurozone periphery, is sort of like “the vital signs are improving enough that the patient might be able to leave intensive care and go into a regular hospital room.”

Europe’s Good News, Bad News

Data out of Europe is showing relative improvement on several important fronts, but is this merely stabilization or “less bad” as opposed to finally turning a corner?

James Galbraith on Social Breakdown and Financial Stress in Europe and Why the Word “Stimulus” Needs to be Banned

Yanis Varoufakis provided the English translation of a new interview with James Galbraith published in Suddeutsche Zeitung. Galbraith focuses on institutional arrangements, the need for restructuring and reform, and constraints on growth.

Europe Extends and Pretends

As I’ve been covering over the last few months the data coming out of Europe of late has been slowly getting better, and last nights’ PMI continued the trend. But “better” still needs to be put in context.

Germany Keeps Whistling as Iberia Starts to Burn

Yves here. One of my colleagues is back from a month in Europe (a lot of travel, and lots of meetings with economists and political types). I need to debrief him more fully, but his short take was Portugal is clearly in crisis, with Spain and Italy not far behind, and that the political train wrecks will hit faster than the economic ones. Although I can’t see how the former won’t accelerate the arrival of the latter.

The Fed (Sort of) Speaks, but is the Bond Market Really Listening?

Yves here. As has become typical of late, the markets reacted sharply to the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Bernanke’s remarks later. For a really good effort at parsing the minutes, see Fedwatcher Tim Duy. The one clear conclusion was how unclear the minutes were:

Satyajit Das: The Truth of the Matter

Satyajit Das reviews three books about our current economic and political woes.

Yanis Varoufakis: The Death of Direct Bank Re-capitalisation: Europe’s (Newest) Day of Shame

The idea was to de-couple the banking from the debt crisis. The reality is that they propose to do nothing of the sort. And deposits are now officially at risk.

Wolf Richter: One Part Of Japan’s Abenomics Salvation Is Already A Fail

Japan’s attack in the Currency War was supposed to make it more competitive in international trade – but that, it failed to do. In fact, the opposite occurred.

Why You Should Stop Worrying About Central Bank Losses

Yves here. I guarantee this post will make some readers’ heads explode. It also explains why Germany would benefit from OMT.

Nikkei Falls 6.4%, Overseas Markets Escalate Hissy Fit Over Cut in World Bank Forecasts, Fed Taper Talk

The big shortcoming being exposed by the Fed’s talk of tapering QE isn’t just that it’s premature. The central bank could have had its cake and eaten it too by using the “T” word and then in case of overreaction, sending minions out to reassure investors that it didn’t mean it, really, they just had to say it to appease the hawks (not in that formula, mind you, the mere fact of running around and looking concerned about markets having a bit of a swoon is more important than content). It’s that any QE exit subjects the Fed to conflicting objectives and Mr. Market may have finally awoken to that fact.