Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Europe’s Good News, Bad News

Data out of Europe is showing relative improvement on several important fronts, but is this merely stabilization or “less bad” as opposed to finally turning a corner?

James Galbraith on Social Breakdown and Financial Stress in Europe and Why the Word “Stimulus” Needs to be Banned

Yanis Varoufakis provided the English translation of a new interview with James Galbraith published in Suddeutsche Zeitung. Galbraith focuses on institutional arrangements, the need for restructuring and reform, and constraints on growth.

Lynn Parramore: The Depressing Tale of How Greedy Financial Titans Crushed Innovation and Destroyed Our Economy

Whatever happened to innovation in America?

Europe Extends and Pretends

As I’ve been covering over the last few months the data coming out of Europe of late has been slowly getting better, and last nights’ PMI continued the trend. But “better” still needs to be put in context.

Four Headwinds to the US Housing Recovery

Yves here. This post from MacroBusiness describes three risks facing the American housing recovery, and I thought I’d add a fourth, which is the open question of how much longer private equity funds and other speculators will continue to bid up housing prices.

Why It’s Absurd that America Doesn’t Tax Wall Street’s Transactions

Yves here. The post below from Paul Buchheit makes a persuasive layperson’s case for a financial transactions tax. There is an equally sound case to be made from a financial markets viewpoint.

Beyond Debt and Growth: An Interview with Robert Pollin

Yves here. As readers likely recall, Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst wrote a paper, “Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,” which revealed serious methodological problems with one of the linchpin papers used to justify cutting government spending even in times of recession. Robert Pollin here discusses some of the bigger issues in the political and economic debates on austerity and the aftermath of the financial crisis.

China’s Most Famous Ghost City Busts

The Chinese government, as has been widely reported, is trying to cool growth, in large measure to take the hot air out of its shadow banking sector. But can it engineer its hoped-for soft landing?

Germany Keeps Whistling as Iberia Starts to Burn

Yves here. One of my colleagues is back from a month in Europe (a lot of travel, and lots of meetings with economists and political types). I need to debrief him more fully, but his short take was Portugal is clearly in crisis, with Spain and Italy not far behind, and that the political train wrecks will hit faster than the economic ones. Although I can’t see how the former won’t accelerate the arrival of the latter.

Quantitative Easing: Can it Be Unwound?

Yves here. This post looks at the unwinding of quantitative easing in the UK and raises some concerns.

Yanis Varoufakis: Europe Resorts to Authoritarianism to Paper Over Banking and Austerity Failures

Yves here. Because the European slow-motion train wreck is turning out to be particularly slow, it’s almost become background noise in the US, almost a lesser version of the now two lost decades in Japan. But what is happing in Europe is less benign and less likely to be able to continue anywhere near that long.

The Fed (Sort of) Speaks, but is the Bond Market Really Listening?

Yves here. As has become typical of late, the markets reacted sharply to the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Bernanke’s remarks later. For a really good effort at parsing the minutes, see Fedwatcher Tim Duy. The one clear conclusion was how unclear the minutes were:

Aging Demographics to Crunch Global Growth

Yves here. I don’t mean to make an object lesson of the author of this piece, van Onselen, since the point he is making, about demographics as a driver of growth, is valid from the vantage point he is taking (that of investment time horizons, which by nature are comparatively short).

But this perspective is simultaneously frustrating to contend with.

Wolf Richter: Blinded By Optimism, German Economy Now Below Stall Speed

The financial crisis was brutal for Germany, but the recovery was steep. A key element is the relentless drive to export. But the German “success recipe” looks to be losing its luster.

Banks Outbidding Private Equity Funds at Foreclosures, Believing They Can Beat Them at the Pump and Dump Game

It’s conventional to deem local journalism to be dead, but Josh Salman at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune has written well-researched investigative story on bank bidding at foreclosures in his neck of the woods, Big lenders bidding to keep homes, that has national implications.