Yearly Archives: 2011
Do We Need Big Banks?
Yves here. I normally let VoxEU articles stand on their own, but this topic, of whether the bank PR that bigger banks are essential stands up to scrutiny, is near and dear to my heart.
Note that the authors point to a 1990s study that finds that a $25 billion in assets bank was the optimal size. There were a fair number of studies done then of bank size versus efficiency. I’m a bit surprised that this is the one that is most often cited, since it also came up with the biggest size threshold at which a negative cost curve kicked in (meaning the bank became more costly to run). One study found that the slightly negative cost curve started at $100 million in assets (!); more typical was somewhere between $1 and $5 billion. And remember, these studies were done in the days when banks returned checks, and check processing was believed to have strong scale economies (ie, if check processing was a bigger proportion of total costs then than now, it could arguably have increased scale economies).
Some academics were frustrated with these results. I recall reading a paper where the author argued that there were theoretical cost savings to being bigger (duh) and basically contended that the empirical data had to be wrong.
Read more...We Speak on BNN About Housing Outlook, Foreclosure Fraud Settlement Discussions
This was a wide-ranging talk on US housing with the very well informed hosts at BNN. Enjoy!
Read more...Why American Officials Have Been Criticizing the Japanese Nuclear Containment Efforts
Some bloggers as well as readers in comments have been very surprised at and unhappy with the spectacle of American officials taking issue with the Japanese response to the crisis at the Fukushima reactor. For instance, the US recommended evacuation for a 50 mile radius from the facility, as opposed to the 20 kilometers, or 12 miles, established by the Japanese.
The disparity in reporting appears to continue today.
Read more...Mirabile Dictu! FDIC Suing Former WaMu CEO, Two Execs, for $900 Million
The FDIC is suing three former WaMu executives for their role in the bank’s failure. The directors of the board, according to the Wall Street Journal, already settled for $125 million. More details:
Read more...The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. sued three former executives of the failed Washington Mutual Bank, along with two of their wives, in a lawsuit filed on Wednesday.
The FDIC is seeking $900 million in damages for alleged gross negligence and other failures by the former executives in the run up to WaMu’s collapse in September 2008…
Guest Post: Curbing the Credit Cycle
Credit booms sow the seeds of subsequent credit crunches. This column argues that these have their source in cross-bank externalities. To internalise these cross-sectional spillovers, policy should operate “across the system”. It adds that this is the essence of macro-prudential policy, which, for the first time is about to be undertaken internationally.
Read more...Links 3/17/11
Irish Perspective on Bank/Sovereign Default
This program on RTEOne from the Ides of March gives a window on how the prospect of default looks from Irish perspective (hat tip Richard Smith). Note that it is the chairman of Goldman Sachs International who argues against debt repudiation.
We’ve argued that it’s rational for the Irish to threaten default and if the debt is not restructured, to act on its promise. The EU has more to lose, since one country rebelling against austerity demands will embolden others, and also brings the real underlying problem, that of Eurobank undercapitalization, to the fore.
Read more...Microsoft, General Electric on List of World’s Most Ethical Companies
Ethisphere just published its annual list of the most ethical companies in the world. I am surprised to see Microsoft and General Electric included among the 110 singled out. GE is the only member of the “diversified industries” group; the other companies in the “computer software” cohort are Adobe, Salesforce.com, Symantec, and Teradata.
Some industries, such as arms merchants, Big Pharma, and US health insurers, are apparently so compromised as to have no representatives.
Read more...Satyajit Das: The Economic Calculus of Japan’s Tragedy
By Satyajit Das, the author of “Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives”
The behaviour of financial markets over recent days confirms British Prime Minister Lloyd George’s observation that “financiers in a panic do not make a pretty sight”. While workers in the Fukushima nuclear plant risked death trying to bring damaged reactors under control, financiers cowered in fear. Oscillating between boom and doom, they sought opportunities to benefit from death and destruction.
Instant experts on the nuances of nuclear power generation and the Japanese economy have crowded the airwaves providing ‘analysis’.
Read more...Quelle Surprise! New Home Construction Plunges
How could anyone have expected new home building to be anything more than anemic with housing prices expected to fall nationwide in 2011? Did some forecasters miss the fact that there are a lot of foreclosures in the pipeline given the current level of serious delinquencies as well as a lot of shadow (homeowners who would like to sell but are not putting their homes on the market due to depressed prices in their market?)
Read more...Links 3/16/11
Obama Pressing for a “Shock and Awe” Mortgage Mod Program, 3 Million in 6 Months
Given how well “shock and awe” worked in the Iraq war, I’d see the Administration’s use of that expression in the context of the mortgage mess as a Freudian slip.
I must confess to being surprised at the report by Shahien Nasiripour of Huffington Post, namely that the Administration is pushing for an even more aggressive-looking mortgage modification program than has been rumored. The reason I’m surprised is that this effort, even though it appears misguided on several fronts and falls far short of what is needed, represents an upping of the demands being made against banks. That is contrary to both the Obama Administration’s past behavior of making great sounding promises and walk them so far back as to wind up in a different country, and of inconveniencing the banks terribly much. But Shahien is an able reporter, so I’m sure he has the facts right.
Read more...Japan Earthquake Shows Business Reengineering Relies on Bogus Thinking Similar to Financial Engineering
Gillan Tett’s latest offering in the Financial Times discusses the woes that have befallen various major companies that find themselves exposed as a result of having extended supply chains that have Japan-based manufacturing as an important part. She correctly depicts this as a symptom of a much larger problem, of having pushed the idea of wringing out production costs too far. But perhaps due to space constraints, she fails to draw out the most important conclusion: just as with financial engineering, management incentives favored ignoring risk, and the resulting blow ups were predictable.
Tett tells us the Japan-related disruptions are merely the most visible symptom of a widespread pathology:
Read more...Remaining Staff at Fukushima Plant Told to Leave (Temporarily?); Intrade Predicts IAEA Will Upgrade Accident Level (Updated)
Markets like Intrade are only as good as the intelligence (as in G2, not IQ) of the people making the bets. Given the dearth of real information coming from Tokyo Power, it’s hard to reach informed conclusions about whether the powers that be are making progress in getting the damaged reactors in the Fukushima power complex under control. Japanese are just not big on Western-style disaster presentations: “Here is what happened,” (with a few schematics) “here is what we’ve done and this is what we are going to do next” with backup plans sketched out if the first line of attack fails. Their reflex is instead a combination of apologies and sincere vows to do better, plus and inward hiss if they are asked a really uncomfortable question. So the collective nervousness is based on the legitimate concern that Something Really Awful still could happen, and the incomplete and often inconsistent tidbits don’t provide much reassurance.
Read more...