Yearly Archives: 2011

Links Ides of March

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Will Ireland Threaten to Default?

We were surprised that Ireland capitulated so quickly to pressure from its Eurozone confreres and accepted a punitive bailout of its government, when it was in fact its banks that were a mess. As we noted in November:

Note that the Irish government is still holding out for a banking-system-only bailout, even if the funds are channeled through the government. Since I am not aware of any IMF bailout being done on this format, it’s likely to be a sticking point if the Irish refuse to back down (recall that the government itself is under no immediate funding pressure; they have six months before they need to go to market, which is an eternity in crisis-land).

The other major bone of contention is Ireland’s super-low corporation tax, which served as a significant incentive for multinationals to set up shop in Ireland. The Germans and French are insistent that it be increased to balance the budget. The Irish objections here are plausible, particularly since the low rates are a cornerstone of their national strategy (do you want 12.5%, the current corporate tax rate, of a decent sized number or 25% of a vastly smaller number?). The Irish have made it clear that they are non-negotiable on this point, and as keenly as the rest of the eurozone would like to beat Ireland back into line, I doubt they’d be willing to risk negotiations failing over this issue.

Fast forward, the Irish agree to a deal, the ruling party suffers substantial losses precisely for accepting the terms demanded by the eurozone and the IMF, and the new incumbents are much less willing to play nicely with counterparties who are engaging in what amounts to “every man out for himself” behavior, no matter what spin is put on their demands.

John Hempton: “What the demise of China Media Express says about the demise of Hank Greenberg and AIG”

By John Hempton, a Sydney-based investor, recovering financial services analyst, and former Australian government official who writes at Bronte Capital

I met Hank Greenberg in late 2000. He was chatting mostly to Ajit Jain – the Berkshire Hathaway reinsurance impresario and I was a spare wheel. But Hank was I thought the most impressive person I had ever met. He name-dropped shamelessly (he had had just flown back to New York on a private jet after “chatting” with Li Peng). But he was so far ahead of me on so many issues it made me feel dumb. He even looked – at least in the brief conversation – as if he were considerably smarter than Ajit Jain – and Ajit is no intellectual slouch.

I was just out of my league…

Japanese Stock Market in Free Fall on Nuclear Fears, Nikkei Down Nearly 13%

The stock market decline in Japan thus far today is second worst to the 1987 crash. As a mere mortal with delayed Bloomberg readings, Topix is now down “only” 12.64 versus a recent 13.18% and the Nikkei is off 12.74%, having recovered a smidge from down 14.1%. Good thing I didn’t listen to some recent stock market recommendations that the Japanese stock market would be up 20% in the first six months of this year.

The yen has firmed only modestly, to 81.55, due to Bank of Japan emergency liquidity operations only partially offsetting a rally. Note the BoJ’s operations are being criticized for being inadequate (ahem, do you think even a central bank can stand in front of a freight train of a major reset in economic fundamentals, unless it chooses to intervene in the stock market directly? Given the current and potential economic damage, the Japanese bond and money markets don’t sound too terrible with call money rates in a much wider trading range than normal. 008% to 0.13% versus the BofJ’s target of 0.1%, so the BoJ appears to be addressing what it considers to be its main priority). From Bloomberg:

Guest Post: Explosion and Fire at Fourth Japanese Nuclear Reactor … Government Says High Levels of Radiation Being Released

Explosion and fire at fourth plant … fire now out … government says high levels of radiation are being released.

Guest Post: Number 2 Reactor Explodes, Damaging Core Containment Structure

There’s been an explosion at the Fukushima 2 reactor, leading to a probable loss of core containment, and a possibly-related rise in radiation levels north of Tokyo.

Why Adulterous Failed Banker Sir Fred Goodwin’s Covered-Up Workplace Affair is a Matter of Public Interest

We will probably see in the next few days whether the newspapers manage to get the super-injunction by Sir Fred Goodwin, the CEO of failed bank RBS, lifted. Since the facts of the matter, or “speculation” if you will, are now all over the Internet, keeping the super-injunction in place seems pretty pointless, as the Telegraph confirms in Sunday’s Links.

So what’s the real point of this circus? A demonstration of the superiority of the Web over the tabloid press as a mechanism for transmitting salacious tittle-tattle? A grandstanding MP working parliamentary privilege to get a bit of banker-bashing publicity? Naked Capitalism getting into the regulatory arbitrage game and thumbing its nose at the UK court order from the relative safety of its NYC-hosted web server? Or perhaps it is blogger Guido Fawkes sarcastically pointing out that the law is now officially an ass:

So there was this ****** bloke who worked closely with another ****** colleague, they apparently began an adulterous affair not long after the ****ing crisis of 2008. He went to Court to stop it getting out that he had been banging her. Because he is the most notorious ****** of his generation he also banned references to his profession lest he be identified. Guido would be in contempt of Court if he told you his name or profession…

Indeed, the law should not be mocked; but who’s mocking it? The UK certainly needs major overhauls of its privacy (and libel) laws, rather than the current abusive shambles, but in this particular case, one might contend that it’s Sir Fred who’s doing the mocking.

Links 3/14/11

Robotic moth offers bat-nav clue BBC

Survey: 41% of Facebook Users Total IDiots Digital Daily

TSA Slips Scanner Re-Testing into Busy Friday News Day Teddy Partridge, FireDogLake

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EU Puts Periphery Countries on the Rack

For those of you unfamiliar with medieval implements of torture, the rack was believed to be quite effective in extracting information, but generally by having a potential victim watch it in use, with the obvious threat that he was next unless he cooperated. The rack was not only terribly painful, but like most old school methods of torture, often crippled those who survived. (Civilized people, which now clearly excludes our President and those in influential positions in the Pentagon, now recognize that torture is good only for producing phony confessions). It was also employed in particularly gory executions, such as drawing and quartering.

The Eurozone seems to be using similar medieval methods on its debt-laden periphery countries with far less clear understanding that serious damage to the subject is a likely outcome.

“Anonymous” Whistleblower Charges BofA With Large Scale Force Placed Insurance Scheme With Cooperation of Servicers

Ooh, this is ugly.

The charge made in this Anonymous release (via BankofAmericaSuck) is that Bank of America, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Balboa Insurance and the help of cooperating servicers, engaged in a mortgage borrower abuse called “force placed insurance”. This is absolutely 100% not kosher. Famed subprime servicer miscreant Fairbanks in 2003 signed a consent decree with the FTC and HUD over abuses that included forced placed insurance. The industry is well aware that this sort of thing is not permissible. (Note Balboa is due to be sold to QBE of Australia; I see that the definitive agreement was entered into on February 3 but do not see a press release saying that the sale has closed)

While the focus of ire may be Bank of America, let me stress that this sort of insurance really amounts to a scheme to fatten servicer margins. If this leak is accurate, the servicers at a minimum cooperated with this scheme. If they got kickbacks, um, commissions, they are culpable and thus liable.

As we have stated repeatedly, servicers lose tons of money on portfolios with a high level of delinquencies and defaults. The example of Fairbanks, a standalone servicer who subprime portfolio got in trouble in 2002, is that servicers who are losing money start abusing customers and investors to restore profits. Fairbanks charged customers for force placed insurance and as part of its consent decree, paid large fines and fired its CEO (who was also fined).

Regardless, this release lends credence a notion too obvious to borrowers yet the banks and its co-conspirators, meaning the regulators, have long denied, that mortgage servicing and foreclosures are rife with abuses and criminality.

Links 3/13/11

If you are in the US, remember we are now on daylight savings time!

Larry Kudlow Devalues Human Life With Japan Earthquake Freudian Slip VF Daily

Pay Teachers More Nicholas Kristof, New York Times

Peanut allergy ‘gene flaw’ link BBC

Herb Kohl vows Google probe Politico

Genetic makeup and duration of abuse reduce the brain’s neurons in drug addiction PsyPost

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Gretchen Morgenson Confirms Lack of Attorney General Investigations into Foreclosure Fraud

This is the key snippet from Gretchen Morgenson’s New York Times column today, which inveighs against Iowa attorney general Tom Miller’s unseemly and peculiar haste to get a deal with miscreant banks inked:

Two people who have been briefed on the discussions, but who asked for anonymity because the deal was not final, told me last week that no witnesses had been interviewed and that the coalition had sent out just one request for documents — and it has not yet been answered.

And the official denial amounts to a confirmation:

A Reason to Stop Banking with Wells Fargo

Even though deciding which TBTF is the worst is like a having an ugly contest between Cinderella’s sisters, Wells Fargo may deserve pride of place. Yes, the Vampire Squid sorta owns the government. JP Morgan has too many people believing it didn’t need a bailout during the crisis. Ahem, what about a $76 trillion derivatives clearing operation don’t you understand? If AIG or Morgan Stanley had failed post Lehman, JPM would have been next. And it is the most aggressive bank I have come across in the “gotcha” fees and bait and switch as far as retail customers are concerned.

But Wells is sanctimonious and too often has taken the position that it is less badly behaved than other banks, which grates on me. It has played fast and loose with its balance sheet reporting, and has lied to Congressional staffers, claiming it hadn’t engaged in robo signing when there were depositions in the public domain to the contrary.

Hopefully, not many NC readers are having to think seriously about filing for bankruptcy. But the practice described in this post at the San Diego Bankruptcy Attorneys Blog reads as bad faith dealings…