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Trump met the press yesterday, even hauling CIA chief John Ratcilffe out of his crypt to join Pete Hegseth, one assumes in a show of unity about the threat to destroy the global economy, as if that was a better alternative than conceding that Iran has bested the supposedly mighty US.
Note that Trump, who has a well-established pattern of setting deadlines and then blowing them off by TACOing or rescheduing them. or sometimes jumping the gun, has lashed himself particularly firmly to the mast this time:
8 P.M. is not that good. Could you change it to between 1 and 2 P.M., or if possible, 1 and 2 A.M.?
Thank you for your attention to this important matter. I.E.Z. pic.twitter.com/deSXD8rpvD— Iran Embassy in Zimbabwe (@IRANinZIMBABWE) April 6, 2026
This Janta Ka segment shows Trump threatening to destroy Iran in the 4 hours after his 8:00 PM drop dead date.
This Hindustan Times presentation includes some of the same Trump bluster plus the Iranian response
Trump’s strident insistence that the US has won (so why the need for more operations?) is yet another proof of detachment from reality, of inability to even present a coherent picture.
Trump is predictably doubling down on lying about the status of negotiations. NO1 gives a good recap:
- Iran’s 10-point response demands: permanent end to war (not pause), all sanctions lifted, reconstruction, end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Hormuz reopened on Iran’s terms with $2M per ship fee split with Oman
- A US official called the response “maximalist” — “not clear if it will allow progress toward a diplomatic solution”
- Trump’s deadline already delayed 5 times in 17 days per Kobeissi. Axios reports he may delay again “if he sees a deal coming together”
- Iran’s strategic advisor to Parliament: “It is Trump who has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran”
Trump’s puffery includes his claim that the US could wreck Iran’s bridges. As Alexander Mercouris in particular has stressed (and leaked conversation from the German military about trying to wreck the Kerch Bridge confirms), bridges are very hard to destroy (damage that might take days or weeks to repair is another matter). The reason the US was able to severely damage Iran’s B1 bridge was that it was under construction.1
So why this desperate attempt at brinksmanship, where Trump and his team ought to know well that neither threats against Iran or blowing a lot of things up will break Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz? And as we feel compelled to point out, that is even before getting to the very real risk of Iran destroying Gulf state desalination plants and/or energy infrastructure. But Trump has said he loves the world circa 1890, so perhaps setting what passes for civilization back massively looks like a positive outcome to him.
But (perceived} necessity is the mother of invention, or here, desperation. We have pointed out, along with many others, that the US and its allies are running out of not just defensive but even offensive weapons, with April the timeframe when inventories of many critical and hard-to-replace systems become catastrophically low.
And it’s not as if the US poor performance relative to objectives isn’t blindingly obvious…if you have been paying attention:
Nothing says air superiority as well as committing your entire inventory of standoff munitions. https://t.co/BRnNAj4Ltp
— Policy Tensor (@policytensor) April 6, 2026
Mind you, as former #2 in the office of the Director of National Intelligence, Joe Kent, has repeatedly pointed out, Trump does have a way out, which is to tell Israel “no”. So again, this fiasco was a war of choice in every possible way.
But Israel remains joined at the hip, including in the latest saber-rattling. From Bloomberg’s landing page at 6:00 AM EDT:
A Twitter post re-reports Fars describing intense pressure by Israel on the Administration (click through for detail):
Claim from semi-official news agency Fars (close to Iranian right wing & IRGC):
– 5 different heads of state and 8 different heads of intelligence agencies have directly contacted Iranian officials in the past few days and tried to push for a ceasefire.
– The heads of these…
— Alireza Talakoubnejad (@websterkaroon) April 7, 2026
We also pointed out that Iran had revised its doctrine on January 6, as in before the war began, to allow for pre-emptive attacks in the case of imminent threats. Trump’s latest, with its specificity of timing and severity, qualifies. From a January post:
From Tasmin News on January 6, translated by Resistance.org:
Statement of the Secretariat of the Defense Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, January 6, 2026.
[….]
The Islamic Republic of Iran, relying on national cohesion, comprehensive deterrence capability, and full defensive readiness, once again affirms that the country’s security, independence, and territorial integrity constitute an inviolable red line. Any infringement upon national interests, interference in internal affairs, or action against Iran’s stability will be met with a proportionate, targeted, and decisive response.
Within the framework of legitimate self-defense, the Islamic Republic of Iran does not limit itself to responding after an action has occurred and considers objective indications of threat as part of the security equation.
It is important to understand that is it not just Trump and his team that are in deep denial about the massive and intensifying defeat staring them down. Even domain experts are getting this wrong. Consider first this important New York Times op-ed by University of Chicago professor and escalation expert Robert Pape, The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Power:
In recent years, the conventional geopolitical wisdom has been that the world order was moving toward three centers of power: the United States, China and Russia. That view assumed that power derived primarily from economic scale and military capability.
That assumption no longer holds. A fourth center of global power is quickly emerging — Iran — that does not rival those three nations economically or militarily. Instead, its newfound power derives from its control over the most important energy choke point in the global economy, the Strait of Hormuz….
Many analysts believe that Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz is only temporary….
That expectation is flawed. It assumes that to continue to control the strait, Iran must physically close it off…Traffic has dropped by over 90 percent since the war began, though, not because Iran has been sinking every vessel that entered the strait but because, given the credible threat of an attack, insurers withdrew or repriced war-risk coverage. Hitting a cargo ship every few days was more than enough to make the risk unacceptable.
Modern economies do not simply require oil. They also require oil delivered on time, at scale and with predictable risk. When that reliability breaks down, insurance markets tighten, freight rates spike, and governments begin to look at energy access as a complex strategic challenge rather than a simple market transaction.
The problem for the United States is one of asymmetry. Protecting each and every oil shipment that passes through the Strait of Hormuz against potential attacks — mines, drones, missile strikes — is a full-time operation…. Iran needs only to hit an oil tanker once in a while to cast doubt on the reliability of the world’s oil shipments…
If uncertainty persists, the Gulf arrangement will inevitably change, giving way to a different regional order — one in which the Gulf states increasingly accommodate the actor that can most directly influence the reliability of their exports. That actor is now Iran.
The global consequences will be most pronounced in Asia. Japan, South Korea and India depend heavily on Gulf energy. China, though more diversified, also depends on the region for a large share of its energy imports. Those dependencies are embedded in infrastructure — refineries, shipping routes and storage systems that cannot be quickly reconfigured.
If disruption to the energy supply persists, the effects will be widespread. Higher insurance and freight costs will raise prices. Trade balances will worsen. Currencies will weaken. Inflation will rise. Energy dependence will begin to shape policy. Governments will prioritize access to energy… Again, Iran will benefit.
China depends on Gulf energy to sustain growth. Russia benefits from higher and more volatile energy prices. Iran gains leverage from its position at the Hormuz choke point.
Each of these three nations has incentives that run counter to the economic stability of the United States and its allies. These three nations do not need to coordinate in a formal way. The structure of the system pushes them in the same direction. This is how a new order emerges — not through a formal alliance (at least not at first) but through converging incentives that reinforce one another over time.
Contrast that assessment with one by Professor John Mearsheimer in a recent Aljazeera interview by Steve Clemons:
The key section from a mildly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Steve Clemons: Another way to cover it is ask what this moment means to the global order, to American power, you know, to the superstates in the world. And I’d love to get your take on the temperature of the global order as you see it and what Iran means to that.
Professor John Mearsheimer: Well, I think a lot of people talk about how this is going to affect the global balance of power or the distribution among the most powerful states on the planet. And that would include of course China, Russia and the United States. And I don’t think that this war is going to have any effect on the distribution of power uh in the international system.
Mearsheimer then gives himself a bit of an out by contending:
And I think that under the Trump administration, what we have seen is that the United States has pursued a set of policies that undermine our ability to project all of that power that we have around the globe. Now, what exactly am I saying here? I think if you’re a great power like the United States and you’re interested in using all that power you have, it’s very important that you pay attention to international institutions which you by the way have created. You pay attention to international law, which you, by the way, have largely written. And you also go great lengths uh to foster good relations with your allies because institutions, international law and allies are important for projecting power. And what the Trump administration has done and it is doing very clearly in the case of the Iran war is that it’s undermining international law. It’s undermining international institutions both of which it needs and it’s doing great damage to its relations with allies in Europe in Asia and certainly in the Persian Gulf. So this war in Iran is disastrous for the United States.
It’s not going to undermine our basic power structure. We have lots of power, but what it’s going to undermine, and of course this is uh consistent with what President Trump has been doing since he first returned to the White House in January 2025, is undermine our ability to project power.
Aside from ignoring Professor Pape’s cogent assessment far-reaching implications of Iran being able to choke the Strait of Hormuz, and the great obstacles to the US effectively countering that, Mearsheimer also seems willfully blind to the loss of US power, such as having high-cost, not-terribly-fit for-purpose weapons systems, a shrunken manufacturing base, rampant rentierism further enriching billionaires at the expense of productive investment….the list goes on.
Mind you, this is not the first time the normally very well-grounded Mearsheimer has offered wildly America-positive views. Not only has he depicted confrontation with China as warranted, but he has sunnily depicted the US as the obvious winner.
An indirect indicator of denialism was a prominent story yesterday, on JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon discussing private credit riak his annual letter to shareholders , as reported many places, such as the Financial Times in Jamie Dimon warns private credit losses will be larger than feared:
JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon has warned that losses for lenders to highly indebted companies will be higher than many expect because of weakening lending standards, as concerns grow around the health of the $1.8tn private credit industry…
“I do believe that when we have a credit cycle, which will happen one day, losses on all leveraged lending in general will be higher than expected, relative to the environment,” Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders, referring to lending to companies with a high level of debt relative to their earnings.
“This is because credit standards have been modestly weakening pretty much across the board,” Dimon, who has led JPMorgan since 2006, wrote in his letter, which is widely read on Wall Street.
In other words, at least per this re-reporting, Dimon sees the private credit tsuris as a function of the boom-bust nature of lending.
Mind you, top bankers are not in the business of scaring the Confidence Fairy. Even so, what was striking was not Dimon mentioning in a very mild way that conditions in private-credit land were not so hot, but as far as I could tell, no mention whatsoever of real economy damage and/or higher interest rates (most private credit borrowings are floating rate) being a risk factor.
More incomprehension of the stakes in the pink paper via its current lead item, Middle East war live: Markets on edge as Trump’s deadline for Iran deal looms. Key points in the summary:
• Oil was volatile ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a major attack on its infrastructure.
• Brent crude fell 1.5 per cent to $108 a barrel, having earlier risen above $111, as traders weighed the prospect of last-ditch de-escalation.
• European stocks and US futures rose…
The US president has repeatedly pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway.
Not surprisingly, Iran is not blinking:
ZERO TOLERANCE. Any harm to Iran's power infrastructure will bring about the termination of oil and gas exports by the southern Persian Gulf states to the world…
— مهدی خانعلیزاده (@Khanalizadeh_IR) April 7, 2026
Not everyone is as chill as Mr. Market:
🚨 QATAR FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: WE ARE CLOSE TO THE POINT WHERE THE SITUATION IN THE REGION COULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 7, 2026
And the Trump stenographer-in-chief, Barak Ravid, is hinting at yet another TACO:
BREAKING: President Trump might delay his Tuesday 8 PM ET deadline on Iran “if he sees a deal is coming together,” per Axios.
This would mark the 5th time President Trump has delayed his ultimatum.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 7, 2026
More grim news on the real economy front, from EBALTV in Gas prices hit $4 nationwide, experts warn $6 by this summer:
Gas prices officially surpassed $4 a gallon nationwide, according to AAA, driven by the war in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
“I’m not liking it, man,” one Florida driver said. Another driver added, “This is too expensive. They’re so crazy. I don’t know what they do in the White House over there.”
An energy industry expert warned that if the war continues and oil supplies remain disrupted, $6-per-gallon gas could be a reality this summer.
“It’s entirely likely that by mid-summer, if nothing’s changed, we will see gasoline prices in the five to $6, even $7 range in California,” said Ed Hirs, a University of Houston energy fellow.
And outside the US:2
To return to the kinetic war, an overview from N01:
- Iran struck Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Industrial City – the Middle East’s largest industrial hub and 4th largest petrochemical complex globally (SABIC). Large fires confirmed by multiple sources and satellite imagery. Kuwait lost two desalination plants supplying 90% of its drinking water. UAE’s Habshan (80% of domestic gas) remains offline since April 3. Bahrain’s BAPCO and GPIC also hit. Confidence: HIGH (15+ sources)
- Iran fired ballistic missiles at central Israel this morning (April 7), triggering 254 simultaneous alerts covering 7.3 million people. Impacts confirmed in Bnei Brak, Tel Aviv, and Ramat HaSharon. Cluster munitions from earlier strikes killed 4 in Haifa, struck cars and buildings across central Israel. Confidence: HIGH(ILRedAlert + multiple OSINT)
More on the consequences of the attack on the Jubail Industrial zone:
And (this is major, do click through):
It's going to be an interesting day for sure when the typical American suddenly realizes that when Al Jubail is burned down, the supply chain of lubricants will collapse. And when the lubricants collapse, then trucks don't run and forklifts don't fork. And when forklifts don't…
— HealthRanger (@HealthRanger) April 7, 2026
Two can play at the “threatening critical arteries” game as Iran puts a bead on an essential causeway connecting Bahrain to the mainland:
From Aljazeera’s live feed, stamped at roughly 6:00 AM EDT:
Multiple overnight explosions have struck Tehran as US and Israeli air strikes intensify across Iran. Heavy bombardment was reported near Mehrabad airport, with attacks also hitting cities including Shiraz and Isfahan. There are reports of casualties, with residential areas and civilian infrastructure increasingly affected.
Israel has issued warnings for civilians to avoid railways, raising fears that transport networks may be targeted next. Iranian officials warn of “devastating” retaliation if attacks continue.
The development below is not good. Iran has left even Ben Gurion more or less alone despite it being used by both the military and civilians. I assume that is because they want civilians to leave, not just out of general principles, but also because enough departing will wreck the economy.
🇮🇷 New footage shows the current situation at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran.pic.twitter.com/Q7K10EItdP https://t.co/9eKMSC3AL2
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 7, 2026
It appears that Iran has not taken the airport attack sitting down:
Done for today. See you tomorrow!
_____
1 A new Aljazeera report inaccurately depicts the B1 bridge as finished (“newly completed”) and lists other bridges the US could target:
Now as another of Trump’s deadlines over the Strait of Hormuz approaches, international observers are sounding the alarm over the implications if the US president were to indeed order the bombing of Iran’s bridges.
The story provide pictures of and details about each bridge, such as the size, estimated cost, date of completion.
The one that might be a viable target is the Persian Gulf Bridge on Qeshm island. It’s only in the early stages of construction, per Aljazeera:
Location: Hormuzgan province
Dimensions: 3.4km (2.1 miles) long
Status: unfinished (15 to 18 percent physical progress)
Background: The Persian Gulf Bridge was a “dream project” for more than 50 years, and ground was broken in 2011. While the bridge remains unfinished due to funding hurdles, its massive underwater foundations and caissons are in place. Once completed, it will connect Qeshm Island – the largest of Iran’s islands in the Gulf, believed to be home to an underground missile arsenal – to Bandar Abbas, Iran’s biggest mainland port.
2 Here in Thailand, we have managed to go from a disastrous projected 50 days of total oil supplies, including jet fuel, to a merely scary 90 days.
Since no one, in particular the Trump team, seems to know what it is doing beyond emulating the Underpants Gnomes, here with:
1. Make threats
2. ?????
3. Victory
To help elucidate what Trump has in mind, as well as provide a topical diversion, an attempt at divination confirms the view many have likely already reached about Trump digging in with his threat of devastating escalation.
_____
Forgive me for including this item, but it will hopefully serve as a diversion of sorts. Below is a simple chart of the Trump’s 8:00 PM EDT deadline. Note that I do not practice horary astrology but many professional investors do, some justifying it to follow Keynes’ beauty contest view, that they need to know how other investors might make use of it. A top writer who has done major profiles of top Wall Street figures (which has entailed interviewing not just them but many in their circle) has said that Wall Street runs on sex and psychics. So before getting annoyed, consider that some, perhaps even many money men will be looking at this chart.
I have a friend who regularly uses horary astrology and liked talking up his findings, and I would sometimes pull up a chart to try to follow along, so I have picked up a few basics. You will see this is from a free service; if I were serious about this sort of thing I would have gotten a proper program.
What even a rank amateur might notice:
1. Nearly all the planets are on the right side of the chart, which here represents the opposed party, Iran. This confirms that they hold all the cards.
2. The Trump side indicator is Libra, ruled by Venus. Venus is on the Iran side of the chart, another sign of Iran’s advantage. Trump’s timing choice makes Iran Aries, ruled by Mars, when Mars is on Iran’s side of the chart. So Iran is not correspondingly weakened.
3. Jupiter, the big benefic, is in the 9th house, which means those far away are lucky. That could be Iran or Israel in this context.
4. The end of the matter for Trump is the 4th house. Pluto in the fourth is the sign of death, secret power struggles, radical transformation…and oil. This also puts Pluto in Iran’s 10th house, which indicates a crisis or other confrontation that will completely and fundamentally changes the status of that party. Pluto is inexorable.
And if you have a Twitter account, please consider following this one:
Hello everyone.
We’re the independent team behind Iranian LEGO Animations.
You might know us from L.O.S.E.R.WE ARE EXPLOSIVE MEDIA.
Stay with us.
Let’s build something for the world.#IranLego— Explosive Media (@ExplosiveMediaa) April 6, 2026
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B1 bridge seems to have received three hits. Two at ends of the first cable stayed segment (about 10m length each), and one which displaced the first free span, which then fell down into the valley. About 40-50 m length of span deck. So, some damage yes but nothing too dramatic; a couple months to recreate the destroyed bits and couple months have them installed. All main columns, cable-stay pillars, cables etc are all intact.
Iran can have this repaired without any major issues and then USrael can come back and destroy again. The question is, will bombs and planes (destruction) run out before concrete and oil (construction).
One point. I think that Prof Mearsheimer is making the important distinction between possessing power and projecting power. The US may possess the power to defend itself against direct aggression, or even to be a regional hegemon, but it has limits beyond defence and influence over its neighbours:
“It’s not going to undermine our basic power structure. We have lots of power, but what it’s going to undermine, and of course this is uh consistent with what President Trump has been doing since he first returned to the White House in January 2025, is undermine our ability to project power.”
This is precisely the position the UK was in throughout the inter-war period and the postwar period until we sank to our present conditon as vassal to Israel’s vassal.
I think you are correct, but I was still confused about Mearsheimer’s comment. Surely actions that undermine the ability to project power globally also reduce US power overall for that reason. As a noted political scientist I’m sure Mearshimer understands “power” in terms of something like Max Weber’s famous definition: “the ability to carry out one’s will despite resistance.” Reducing the US ability to “project” power in strategic locations like the Gulf certainly increases the ability of others to resistance our demands, thereby reducing our own power in the world. That is the major reason we are there.
Thanks for bringing up Weber, whose definition informed political science as I understood it back when. Mearsheimer’s futzing around with a distinction between power and projected power might simply be addressing the idea of potential power. Fine. However, it also can, in Trumpworld, be a form of narcissistic reassurance, to the point of fetishism, based the sort of gross overestimation of, for example, the effectiveness of US weapons systems. I think this is in the ballpark of Martyanov’s recurring fulminations over the strategic incapacities of US and NATO elites because that haven’t had to deploy their supposed power against first tier foes in decades.
Without those Chinese refined rare earths, the US will not be able to make the weapons to do much projecting of power. Every advanced missile that the US fires into Iran just serves to make countries like China and Russia more safe. Of course the counter argument is that this leaves the US with only nukes in case of a major war. The same of course applies to Israel. It probably explains why Iran is just doing a low- key destruction of US bases and Israeli targets instead of massive attacks. In order not to panic those two countries into reaching for their nukes.
The boiling frog doctrine.
That was also my interpretation of Mearsheimer’s statements, though frankly the distinction strikes me as pedantic if not outright fallacious: surely a state is objectively less powerful when it is less able to compel others to obey its will.
I want to return to my Mash Potato Avoidance theory of Trump actions. The key idea is that he is motivated above everything by avoiding humiliation.
So, leaving aside all strategic and rational ideas, what are Trump’s options and how much mash potato does he wear with each.
1. Accept reality, Iran has won, take defeat and make a loser’s peace (ceding mostly to Iranian demands). Maximum mash on head.
1b. Start towards the above, by privately making some concession that might get Iran to signal some willingness to talk. Basically a stall. Low mash, but Iran unlikely to cooperate.
2. Make up some ludicrous excuse to delay again. Difficult due to specificity of deadline and public rejection of negotiations by Iranians. Still possible. It doesn’t have to be believable, it just has to be something Trump can say that he believes idiots might believe. Mash potato medium due to climbdown reality leaking through his cognitive shield.
3. Attack as threatened and blow up the whole world economy. Mash potato score unfortunately low in the immediate term (although history wise he becomes covered in mash. I think the long or even medium term is irrelevant though).
—-
So some version of 2 (with maybe some 1b) where Trump can convince himself that he isn’t being humiliated seems like the best hope. It would be an absurd rationale. What possible “win” could he claim that would allow him to wriggle?
It’s hard to imagine but he’s surprised me before with the creativity of his TACOs.
If he cannot find that wriggle I believe his fear of the mash would outweigh any sanity vis-a-vis not destroying the world.
——
Regardless, I expect Israel to launch a serious attack if they smell any TACOing. And that’s not even mentioning the assumed photos in Bibi’s safe.
—–
I’m very over being held hostage by the combination of a genocidal expansionist mob, and a childlike frightened narcissist gangster. Resorting to prayer at this point.
Demonstrable effective range of thoughts and prayers: 0.0 meters
“The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new discoveries is exceedingly remote…. Our future discoveries must be looked for in the sixth place of decimals.”
Albert A. Michelson
Speech at the dedication of Ryerson Lab
University of Chicago, 1894
Misters Einstein, Bohr and others have entered the chat
Rutherford would like a word…
Thanks for this quote, Ben. Consider that at the time they didn’t know how the sun managed to shine. That was explained by the theory of nuclear fusion, which wasn’t around in 1894.
So they got up every morning not knowing what made the sun shine, the most central fact for planetary life, and yet declared the science of physics complete. Staggering cognitive dissonance, I have been fascinated by this quote ever since I heard it.
Surprise!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultraviolet_catastrophe
It was around this time that the noted neo-classical economist Stanley Jevons hypothesized that sun spots caused recessions. Of course we have made enormous theoretical progress since then.
That’s the Quote of the Day, in my Sacred Screed. Thank you!
Helmer thinks T’s mind has collapsed. From Dances With Bears:
THE COLLAPSE OF TRUMP’S MIND LEAVES NO ALTERNATIVE
https://johnhelmer.online/the-collapse-of-trumps-mind-leaves-no-alternative/
Michael Wolff has been saying for some time (going back to well before the start of the current hot phase of the long conflict with Iran) that DJT doesn’t really have a plan; his thinking is more “stream of consciousness” (perhaps analogous to his verbal style) with policy decisions not based on (his own) careful reflection but on how he is feeling or what he happens to be thinking at the moment the decision is made. Quoting a conversation with Jeffrey E, MW has asserted that DJT does not have functional executive function.
This would help to understand the reported phenomenon of the influence of the most recent person to have spoken with DJT.
It’s disconcerting to think that the Chief Executive might have significant deficits in executive function.
Yeah, Trump has urges. He follows these urges to the detriment of us all.
Really helpful.that he surrounded by idiot zealots with personality disorders and funded by bunker-owning tech bros who truly sincerely believe the “old rules” for business don’t apply to them because in the 90s fortune were made without factories.
As the kids say, what a time to be alive.
It’s disconcerting to think that the Chief Executive might have significant deficits in executive function.
There were emerging signs of cognitive decline at least as far back as Trump’s first term. This was quite noticeable in his verbal behaviour.
Oh well the USA survived something similar with Biden but Biden had a somewhat competent set of core advisors who probably ran policy for his last two years in office. Trump has the Three Stooges backed up by the Keystone Cops
somewhat competent set of core advisors
The more effective evil, recall A. Blinken saber rattling to Lavrov, Jake Sullivan, Vicky Nuland, and a secret caste of israel first globalist doms gleefully killing russians with ukranians and killing gazans with starvation and snipers. In public they appeared to be slightly more polite I suppose…blue ties are easy on the eyes or something.
We wouldn’t be in this situation if Biden and his cronies hadn’t gleefully supplied all the bombs Israel needed to perpetrate their genocidal rampage against Gaza. Ronald Reagan showed that when an American President says “No” to Israel firmly enough, they back down. But no one in the Republican and Democrat leadership wants to say “No” to them now, so our leaders allow Israeli insanity to spiral out of control, with the situation we’re in now with Iran the result. And if “we” defeat Iran and get regime change to someone more favorable to Israeli interests, Turkiye will be next on the menu as the horrible “next Hitler” threat that requires bombing and assassinations.
It’s even more disconcerting to know the US pres can order a nuclear strike without consulting anyone, not Congress or the Joint Chiefs. He has sole authority to “push the button.”
Authority to Launch Nuclear Forces
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10521
That ability has always been framed by the ‘in 10 minutes all our missiles get destroyed’ scenario. No one ever publicly argued the ‘I don’t want to look bad by chickening out’ scenario.
“against stupidity, the gods, themselves, strive in vain.”-Schiller.
see y’all on the other side, i suppose.
In Kahneman’s terms of “fast and slow” thinking, heuristic and systemic thinking, Trump and the Epstein Class of sociopaths have shimmied to the top of the political pole as a result of The Market State project of the American Chamber of Commerce, the Heritage Foundation, and the Federalist Society having succeeded by allowing, really requiring, the purchase of heuristic, fast leadership.
Once Citizen’s United institutionalized policy as a commodity for market actors to bid on, it was only a matter of time until the most compromised, least moral, and least competent people were procured to implement purchased policy. This class of misleadership is essentially qualified by its heuristic, short term, “fast” effectiveness, right down to dominating the room, Trumps only real ability.
As political market agents have advanced their avatars, Trump being the current Primo, the competition for political market space in which to operate functionally has been so narrowed by the cash flows now underpinning politics that Genocide becomes increasingly the go to option, Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank, Iran, as any other path defies the underlying political market actors. This all, of course, is now at the point of deliberately destroying physical markets for most basic and advanced goods and services in the world. As Lambert used to say, “extroverts (the heuristically dominant) will be the end of us all!”
A bit of a reach, perhaps, but I think if Iran were to let, say, an additional 8-10 ships per day through the strait, which for humanitarian and diplomatic reasons they might already be planning on doing, Trump might claim they were “begging for time to finish the agreement” and partially opened the strait as some sort of concession to his might or promissory note to surrender and fully open the strait “very soon.” He could also just lie and say they promised to have it fully open in some time period like 2 weeks as they finalized the surrender documents. Markets and the msm would, of course, buy it no matter what Iran said or how much relatively lower level infrastructure destruction continued, and he could kick the highly explosive can down the road for a bit longer.
Passing strange feeling that I view this as the most hopeful option, but here we are.
It isn’t up to Donald. Israel makes the plays. Israel wants Iran destroyed, and doesn’t care how many servicemembers US expends doing it.
And, in counterpoint/ foil, Iran is fairly tired of Israel and the US, and what-all “we” have done in our perverted little Menage a Trois since WW2. All sorts of spin-off S L I C Cs
Humanity and the earth lose. I’m pretty sure there are no winners— zero sum game in the long run.
So there’s that!
🛎️🛎️🛎️!!!
Do the Israelis have a version of the Purple Heart that they could award to dead and wounded US service people? This sort of thing happens often between allies in wartime. It is the least that they could do here since this is really their war but with a twist. The US is using the Ukraine as a proxy to fight Russia but here Israel is using the US as a proxy to fight Iran. As a past US President once asked, who is the superpower here?
Just as a fun fact, would you believe that there was this British guy that won not only a Victoria Cross but an Iron Cross as well? Different wars of course.
The USA anticipated a shit ton of casualties in the invasion of Japan that never happened, so they made a gajillion Purple Hearts, and you could buy them by the gross if you’d like in the aftermarket for around $10-15 each when I was a much younger version of myself, and you didn’t even need to draw blood.
I think that at the time the Allies were reckoning with about a million casualties for the invasion of Japan. This was probably based on the casualties incurred on Iwo Jima and Okinawa.
But, maybe, to buy a purple heart, without shedding any blood, you just needed to be a prick?
Why yes, a Hamilton would do the trick.
In the UK, purple hearts were a drug containing amphetamine and amobarbital, sold as Dexamyl.
We called them Christmas Trees in the US because of their color, green and white.
There was a Japanese soldier who was recommended for a British medal in 1946 (not VC, though.) His unit was released from POW camps to serve as British auxilliaries in Indonesia right after the War, with Indonesian nationalists engaged in the armed uprising that they eventually won.
But that might be seen as an admission of that whole “Onward Christian Soldiers” idea.
On the other hand, Americans being Americans, perhaps a large wad of tax-tree wonga to each victim (or surviving kin) would buy Israel better PR.
The thing is, I’m not sure that Israel feels any need to have good PR with the American groundlings any more, what with the oligarchy in their pocket.
I’ve assumed – not that I am well-informed or smart – that some ships going through would be a way or making it very clear that Isreal and the and the US are responsible.
Allowing food stuffs and other necessities to go to Africa and Cuba would be a good PR move on Iran’s part. Sending oil to Cuba would also be a nice way to stick it to Trump and Rubio.
> 2. Make up some ludicrous excuse to delay again. Difficult due to specificity of deadline
Consider the formal similarities with a TV reality game show. I just took a look at BBC News front page and it seems they are playing along it. We might as well put on some of that hyper-dramatic reality TV music or maybe we should have a countdown clock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2dhD9zR6hk
From PBS. Sounds like the crazy bastard is threatening nuclear strikes.
That’s what it sounded like to me too.
Iran has, of course, engineered for this contingency.
I really hope we don’t have to live with these consequences.
If Iran had a nuclear weapon, today would be a great day to test it…
Maybe Pakistan and India will throw in for good measure?
Kessler Kinetics-like, without a spec of Starlink/Elroy.
Well, maybe Elroy is in the mix, as the supplier of Trump’s microdose designer concoctions?
Sheeezus.
Why no option 4, lie supercalifragilisticexpialidocious-ly and walk away?
“Today we’ve achieved something nobody has ever done before. Peace In The Middle East! Many have tried and all have failed until now. And people told me I couldn’t do it either. But I proved them wrong and achieved Peace In The Middle East. And that’s because I wasn’t afraid to unleash the might of our powerful military, the most powerful in history, and the bravery of our war fighters, the most courage in history. All presidents before me didn’t understand and have faith in our tremendous military, which I had to rebuild in my first term. But I made the tough decision to let them loose. And it was a tough decision. You can see the slightly higher gas prices. But that short term pain is worth the long term pain. We’ve totally destroyed Iran’s army, navy, airforce, air defence and nuclear weapons program. And now they’re no longer a threat to the region. Completely gone. Finished. Destroyed. So now we can stop military operations. And what’s more, we can bring all our wonderful troops home. I didn’t know this but for years and years we’ve had many bases in the Gulf to protect against the Iranians. We spent a lot of money and our poor wonderful war fighters were stuck in the desert manning those bases because past presidents were too afraid to take decisive action. Well, no more. We’ve completely eliminated the Iranian threat and now there is Peace In The Middle East and all our wonderful soldiers, infantry, marines, sailors and pilots can come home, saving us Billions of dollars every year. And Hormuz? That’s not our problem. We don’t use it. We don’t need it. So we don’t care if it’s open or shut. The Europeans need it so they’ll have to figure it out. We could help them but why should we? They didn’t help us with Iran. We didn’t need them. I asked them, they said no, which is fine since we didn’t need them. But they didn’t help us so why should we help them? Really, they’ve been very unfair to us for so long and we’re gonna do something about that. NATO is a big scam and we’ve been taken advantage of for too long and we’ll look into it. But I think we’ll take a little break. I think we deserve it. Peace In The Middle East was not easy, let me tell you. Not hard because we have the most powerful military in the world but we deserve a little break.”
Epstein. He cannot just walk away he has to surrender and kick Israel in the gonads. Which, Epstein, aint happening.
If I woke up tomorrow and saw this, it would be a great day. Kudos on nailing the speech.
Regarding the Star Chart. It would not surprise me if Trump, like Ronald & Nancy Reagan, consulted his own astrologist to chart his own course in trying to run the world like old Joe Biden said that he did. Certainly Mars is ascendant at the moment but as far as Iran is concerned, he is still trying to pull a solution out of Uranus.
I doubt it. The 8:00 PM deadline is very unfavorable.
My friend said you could easily see who used astrology by their timing of major action. He said Gorbachev did too.
Is this seriously true- the world is run by people who believe in ASTROLOGY?? I am gobsmacked.
You do not get out and about enough. You ought to see the New Age quacks and psychics that have a following among top professionals. I have personally met both a psychic that Disney would invite regularly to important meetings (I think she was a consultant) and a psychic on Morgan Stanley’s payroll who also went to top exec meetings (he if I recall was billed as a HR type).
As JP Morgan said, “Millionaires do not use astrology. Billionaires do.” He was a client of Evangeline Evans.
FWIW, a book was published in Russian by a top scientist after the USSR fell on the USSR’s parapsychology research program. A friend working in Moscow in the 1990s read it.
As she told me, both the USSR and the US had well-funded programs. They were interested in seeing if they could do things like remote messaging.
They concluded that some did have bona fide psychic abilities, way way way above chance, but still not reliable enough to use for military purposes.
The population that had the biggest concentration was red-headed female peasants.
I have long thought that the US research described in The Men That Stare at Goats was to cover for the real program.
YS: Agreed. Although quacks exist because dupes exist.
C.G. Jung and Sigmund Freud used natal horoscopes as a diagnostic. The horoscopes show tendencies. My natal horoscope, fortunately or unfortunately, is a pretty good portrait.
But what we are talking about is portraits of current situations, current circumstances. Predictions never work — and certainly don’t in my preferred vehicle, tarot cards.
The reason that the chart you posted has some credibility is that it is a portrait of what is happening now. This moment in space-time.
Will the chart be completely accurate? No. But then nor was the oracle of Delphi.
Recalling:
If you cross the river, a great empire will fall.
Recalling:
There is more in heaven and earth, O Horatio, than the fantasies of the U.S. elites.
PS: And I will admit that as a writer, I tend to be superstitious. But then, Torino sits at one apex of a triangle of white magic, in a figure made with Lyon and Prague. One learns to wonder.
Oh, there are many quacks but my impression is most are the self-deluded sort who then get high when they have developed a following
Horaries indeed supposed to be profiles of single actions or decisions. But some are harder to undo or change, like getting married or taking a new job.
Another story you might enjoy: apparently 2 generations before William Blake was born, people professed to seeing angels from time to time. Blake did as a child after it had long gone out of fashion. His father trying to beat it out of him didn’t change things.
Blake told his wife he would never leave her. He died before she did.
She reported he would still visit her every afternoon for a few hours.
“There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
Will Shakespeare – Hamlet.
My father and my great aunt swore my grandmother visited and said goodbye. Both called my grandfather and the uncle who was living with them before they had a chance to call emergency services. (They barely hung up on my great aunt before my father got through.)
Ironically, a lot of this comes from the Enlightenment.
Following the Dark Ages, Europe rediscovered Antiquity and its great, lost civilisations. The logic was that their technologies were on par or greater than those of the day and so they had many secrets to decipher. One of those lost sciences was astrology, which although never actually went away, came back with renewed interest since the ancients did much with the skies in mind.
You still see some of that today with the Graham Hancock types who believe an advanced civilisation must have built the pyramids in Egypt.
Thank you for enlightening me. Seems I have some studying up to do. I always learn something from Naked Capitalism.
I am sorry if I seemed tart. I am drafting in more haste than usual, which can produce a rough tone
As much as believing in astrology or the Tarot might seem dangerously daft in a decision-maker, I still think I would take that over worship of The Singularity or belief in crazier things, like colonizing Mars as a good idea
Tarot seems quite rational by comparison with the spewings of Paula White-Cain and her ilk. It might warn you that a world-ending catastrophe is coming, but it won’t urge you to help bring it about.
Tucker Carlson had a young documentary film maker on a recent show that discussed Paula White (46.00). Apparently she had been stalking Donald since the early 2000’s trying to get into his orbit. He also has a lot to say about the institution of religion as well.
https://tuckercarlson.com/tucker-show-nathan-apffel-040626
Yes plenty of more crazy and dangerous things!
In one of the novels in The Culture Universe (a technological and civilizational communist utopia) by Iain M Banks there is a human character that the Minds consult because it has an extra ability to perceive events (way, way, way above chance and also fit for military purposes), like a Kwisatz Haderach or a Navigator in the Guild of the Dune repute…
Merf56:
Odd reinforcement. I was at a show by a good acquaintance on Friday. His specialty is a kind of on-stage documentary about musicians and music. His shows are always fascinating.
He was profiling the long career of a kind of cult group here in Torino that has an enormous following. Think Talking Heads all’italiana.
And lo and behold: One of their staff is a woman who has chosen the release dates of their eight or so albums. By astrology. And a couple of the albums went to #1 in the first week of release.
Are they talented musicians? Sure.
Yet be aware of signs and portents. With the necessary grain of salt. Consider it all grist for the mill. (To mix metaphors.)
In this dire moment, scanning the heavens isn’t an option to rule out.
Placed here for the interpretation of NC soothsayers –
Just yesterday, a comet once believed to be much more substantial flew too close to the sun and was completely vaporized.
All I get from that link is the home page of WBNS-TV, Columbus, Ohio — nothing about a comet. :-(
Weird – I clicked it and saw the article. Anyway, try this one – https://earthsky.org/space/new-sungrazing-comet-c-2026-a1-comet-maps/
Webpage got wiped out too!
allow me to mention…spencer pratt’s recent memoir. yes that guy. but wonderfully ghost written and incredibly self-aware, he is a rational actor mostly. and he got into crystals and all kinds of other woowoo stuff later in life.
along the way he had some healer/mystic in his circle.he would help meditate on outcomes, focus on willing things into existence (very almost the secret type stuff it sounded like). anyway, this man, named hugo, eventually would help him meditate on…parking and traffic. this is LA after all. and pratt swears it always worked.
he’s ultimately dismissive of hugo the mystic, and suspects he was in fact being microdosed LSD the entire time.
but nevertheless, a wealthy, desperate person turning to mysticism and seeing empirical results. it’s apparently a thing.
unusual number of crows, this year.
and no scissortails or mockingbirds chasing them.
the former, to their credit, havent arrived here, yet…still keeping the schedule.
unlike almost everything else,lol:oaks, mesquites, et alia budding out in the wrong order, etc.
the crows have been mostly flying around over at mom’s…so i attributed it to maybe having that particular burden lifted soon.
then trump happened,lol…i mean, jeez louise.
“O sing, and hush the nations with thy song!
In vain, in vain—the all-composing hour
Resistless falls: The Muse obeys the Pow’r.
She comes! she comes! the sable throne behold
Of Night primeval, and of Chaos old!
Before her, Fancy’s gilded clouds decay,
And all its varying rainbows die away.
Wit shoots in vain its momentary fires,
The meteor drops, and in a flash expires.
As one by one, at dread Medea’s strain,
The sick’ning stars fade off th’ ethereal plain;
As Argus’ eyes by Hermes’ wand oppress’d,
Clos’d one by one to everlasting rest;
Thus at her felt approach, and secret might,
Art after Art goes out, and all is Night.
See skulking Truth to her old cavern fled,
Mountains of Casuistry heap’d o’er her head!
Philosophy, that lean’d on Heav’n before,
Shrinks to her second cause, and is no more.
Physic of Metaphysic begs defence,
And Metaphysic calls for aid on Sense !
See Mystery to Mathematics fly!
In vain! they gaze, turn giddy, rave, and die.
Religion blushing veils her sacred fires,
And unawares Morality expires.
Nor public Flame, nor private , dares to shine;
Nor human Spark is left, nor Glimpse divine !
Lo! thy dread Empire, Chaos! is restor’d;
Light dies before thy uncreating word:
Thy hand, great Anarch! lets the curtain fall;
And universal Darkness buries All.”
https://allpoetry.com/The-Dunciad:-Book-IV
Grist for Hamlet’s Mill no doubt.
I have heard rumors that gingers have no soul. If true, that might give them a leg up in the psychic ability race. Removing my tongue from my cheek, and my foot from my mouth now. I’ll show myself out….
There was a book in my father’s library I would look at, supposedly a best seller from the 60s or 70s entitled “Psychic Discoveries Behind The Iron Curtain”
Strange, I didn’t see so far any Nostradamus or Baba Yaga “predictions” about Iran war. Maybe I’m not visiting right sites?
Prime Minister of Canada during WWII, Mackenzie King, was a major loon as well. I think he even held Seances.
There’s plenty of history of Svengalis of various sorts leading their clients to demise.
Rasputin (Netanyahoo) and the last Czar of Russia (Trump) spring to mind.
Just thought of something I once read…
I don’t remember what astrologer said it or maybe it was just an old saying being repeated, but they said that anyone claiming to be able to tell the future through astrology should be avoided. They said something to the effect of “The stars don’t foretell, they compel.”
I see what you did there.
>>>> is a simple chart of the Trump’s 8:00 PM EDT deadline.
not into astrology, but fascinated about the coincidence
funny thing, what if someone in the White House follows astrology, too….and overtly or nudged Trump to pick the 8p deadline.
“a great empire will fall….” lol. just don’t tell Trump about Crassus
secret societies are big on astrology and a lot of powerful people belong to secret societies
I’ve read that many of the Founding Fathers were Free Masons. (Not sure if Eastern Star was around then for the Founding Mothers.) I think it’s a slippery slope when people’s thinking runs from secret societies to conspiracy theories.
conspiracy theory: epithet secret societies deploy to shield themselves from scrutiny
I think it comes from the sense that they are above the riff-raff and know how easy it is to control things from their positions, but on the other hand they cannot fathom the unknown-unkowns and the idea that we live in a dynamic and ever changing (at times chaotic) universe. Don’t understand that the mystery of life is that life has figured out this secret and developed ways of counteracting it. These demigods (as they perceive themselves) truly believe in a hierarchy of sorts and are trying to ascertain how their own lives and actions will be impacted by powers above themselves…
Of course we may all be surprised and some kind of deal might happen. I believe some talking is happening on the Iranian side although how much is unknown.
—
Iranian Ambassador in Pakistan posted this morning local time:
Reza Amiri Moghadam
@IranAmbPak
6h
Pakistan positive and productive endeavours in Good Will and Good Office to stop the war is approaching a critical, sensitive stage …
Stay Tuned for more
——–
Guardian quoting “Iranian Official”
US and Iran are engaging in last-ditch negotiations ahead of Trump’s deadline
Saeed Shah
With Donald Trump’s deadline fast approaching, the two sides are in last-ditch talks, according to officials in Pakistan’s Islamabad, which is acting as an intermediary for the indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran.
The fact that talks are still going on is a “big thing”, according to an official briefed on the dialogue, adding that “they have to find a way”.
An Iranian official said that “more hopes are emerging”.
The Iranian ambassador in Islamabad, Reza Amiri Moghadam, said in a post on X: “Pakistan positive and productive endeavours in Good Will and Good Office to stop the war is approaching a critical, sensitive stage … Stay Tuned for more”
Pakistan has offered to host talks between Iran and the United States, which could follow any ceasefire agreement.
Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish diplomats are working to bridge the large gap between the demands of Tehran and Washington.
The Egyptian and Pakistani foreign ministers spoke on Tuesday. “Both leaders underscored the need for de-escalation and dialogue,” said Pakistan’s foreign ministry. The Egyptian foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, also spoke with Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff.
Trump, who set a deadline of Tuesday night in Washington for an agreement, said on Monday that Iran’s latest proposal, a 10-point plan, had shown some progress, but it was “not good enough” for him.
Tehran wants an end to the war, not just a ceasefire, so it does not reignite in a few months. One idea being floated is for the US Congress to ratify any agreement, so that it will not be so easy to restart the bombing of Iran.
The U.S. news website Axios reported that Trump’s negotiating team, vice president JD Vance, Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner, think that he should try for a deal. However, it added that Israel, and the leaders of Saudi Arabia and UAE, are urging the U.S. leader against accepting a ceasefire. It also quoted a US official saying: “The president is the most bloodthirsty, like a mad dog”.
If you have Vice President JD Vance, Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner as Trump’s negotiating team, then it is not a serious negotiation. Just before the war in negotiations, Iran made all sorts of major concessions but then Witkoff told Trump that he was told by the Iranians that they had enough nuclear material for eleven nukes. He lied his face off because he saw that the negotiations were going successfully but which might halt Bibi’s war. And I don’t believe Axios at all, especially when the owner virtually makes new reporters swear an oath of loyalty to Israel.
Yes I agree. I only included the axios bit due to lazy copy-pasting. The Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan tweet piqued my interest though. And some Iranian official (maybe the same ambassador or a non-playing-character) gave the other quote to The Guardian.
I’m not saying it’s much, I’m just saying it’s not nothing.
It seems that Israel went ahead and started bombing Iran’s railroads and bridges, while US is bombing Kharg Island.
IRGC is announcing that Iran’s “self-restrain has ended and US and it’s partners will be deprived of Gulf’s oil for years”.
Qatar’s foreign ministry is warning that situation in the region is spiraling out of control…
Well, this is what’s on my feed at the moment.
Not to justify attacks on Iran’s railroads, but a couple of days ago Alon Mizrahi posted about Iran attacking the central Israeli RR station, Tel-Aviv Savidor, and saw the attack as a major threat to north-south transport. There’s a tier of important targets that Israeli censorship successfully masks and it makes it hard to gauge where things stand in the escalation cycle, apart from top tier targets such as petrochemicals and desalinization.
Conversely, a couple of Israelis made a video inviting Iran to bomb Tel Aviv’s central bus station. You could see why!
About a week ago, there was video of the aftermath of an Iranian attack on Tel Aviv Savidor, and the damage did not look significant.
Then again, when dealing with Israel, any sense of proportionality in conflict is quickly out the window.
It seems that Israel went ahead and started bombing Iran’s railroads and bridges, while US is bombing Kharg Island.
Seems to be normal US & Israeli behaviour, always attack during peace negotiations. Given the quick Iranian response I assume the Iranians expected this.
From the Ukraine SMO, railways are easy and fast to repair – if you have equipment like Russia does. Just a few hours. Railway bridges not so. But bridges are really hard to destroy if built to survive (not US bridges).
Iran’s also said the conflict will expand beyond the region if the enemy escalate.
moonofalabama:
Ryan Grimm and Saagar Enjeti on Breaking Points, utube, ~14+ minutes.
BREAKING: US Strikes Kharg Island As Gulf Oil Fields BURN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01VA4cQlmUA
When you get down to it, Axios is no different to publications like the Washington Post or the New York Times. There’s not that many truthful sources on the net and often they are small scale operations.
Any bilateral US negotiation is a pretext and they will strike during it. They keep doing it. Iran must not fall for this “Lucy and the football” act.
If the US agreed a proposal with Russia and China, maybe Iran should listen….
I’d much rather have a star chart than a one-good one-sector infinite time DSGE model. Jokes aside, omens, even if do not come to pass, if are taken seriously have an effect that is tantamount to their own realization (i.e. a self-fulfilling prophecy, of Greek Tragedy fame). Since it’s an open secret that astrology has a much bigger influence in decision-making than ordinary people suppose, I think it’s absolutely fair game to consider it.
All done for today. Please refresh this page and re-skim if you were an early arrival.
There’s a loose sentence fragment under the first tweet
“This Janta Ka segment shows Trump threatening to”
Also the twitter embed goblins got you again with the “5 heads of state” tweet which is double posted :)
Thank You— stay safe!
Interesting bit about being in Taiwan, besides being just a bit (sorta) north of Yves is that the time difference now means I can see this thread BEFORE the usual “not done yet, come back after 8 Eastern” disclaimer AND get in before there are double digits comments and the rest of the commentariat (the BEST commentariat) have already used the good ones.
Something I haven’t seen mentioned much but wondered on as I was wanding a local mountain is “what’s going on with all the service-level expatriates keeping the Gulf States working?” Is food tight? Water? Electric? General civil order? I note the comment regarding the top crust likely getting ready to run, but what about the rest?
I’m going with “2” on the Ben Panga Mashed Potato Scale – we’ll hear news of “contacts” from unnamed “Iranian officials” signalling that they are “willing to talk” about Trump’s demands, and thus he, in his Mighty Orange Greatness, will spare them from his reign of hellish fury.
This time.
But it’s the LAST time, he will assure us!
[Faces southwestish and waves at Yves]
ETA: Oh look! There’s the “it’s done!” post just above this one! Time to refresh and see the difference!!!!!
I love the smell of TACOs in the morning – especially here, where I can’t get them easily.
https://www.rt.com/news/637638-trump-iran-ceacefire-extension/
We’ll see if RT is right, I suppose – maybe his astrologer is the last person to have spoken to him.
As well as whether Israel will go for it or not.
Not to mention whether Iran will decide to live up to its “we’ll stop shooting if they stop shooting” claim, KNOWING that this “ceasefire” is likely just buying time to rearm and reorganize.
Daily Horrorscope:
Are you doling out free advice again, Libra? Everyone could be trying to get a hold of you today, in search of a supportive ear. And while your less than even keel makes you a unpopular sounding board, you need to set some limits. If an opinion doesn’t spring to mind after someone finishes talking, steer them toward a solution with pointed questions about how their newspaper’s circulation is way down. And consider the possibility that the universe is trying to send you a message.
I read this with the voice of that Astrology guy I used to hear on the radio.
Today’s actual horoscope for a Libra that I gleaned online, that I might have changed and/or added a few words.
Iran has put Trump on tilt. They hold the best cards, play the game better and are playing in a neighbourhood casino. The only thing Trump can do is burn down the casino. That’s it. He can fold and leave (which he seems pathologically incapable of – admitting he made a terrible deal) or burn down the casino. The only other way out of this is that Trump is taken out of the game by his own side.
1. Trump admits defeat
2. US will be defeated with terrible consequences
3. Trump will be removed from power
Vote Now
Possibly all three will come to pass.
I for one do not discount option number three.
If it’s ever going to happen, it would have been foreseen by the actors, and THIS would be the time for an accelerated removal.
So why this desperate attempt at brinksmanship, where Trump and his team ought to know well that neither threats against Iran or blowing a lot of things up will break Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz?
Because throwing tantrums and breaking things has generally been a successful life strategy for him so far (or at least he thinks so) so why change a “winning” strategy?
I also suspect that he and his cronies really have no sense of what it’s like to deal with an opponent not all that willing to just toss in the towel at the slightest setback, even if – as you say – they “ought” to know better. They’re high on sniffing their own BS, regardless of how often they get slapped by the Reality Haddock.
Are we that far off of Galligula suing Iran for a trillion bucks, as per his forte?
Re Jamie Dimon–I’ve read that JP Morgan is Wall Street’s most indicted firm. FWIW.
And thanks for the No1 Daily Digest link. Lots of info.
Carolinian
JP Morgan went through an ‘immaculate reconception’, so now they are JP Morgan Chaste.
Not sure if this is related to what’s happening in Iran, and I haven’t watched the video yet, but there was a big kaboom at the Panama canal several hours ago – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaEhdRoJMRs
Quick glance at CNN and yahoo news and I didn’t see any mention of it.
Corporate media starting to catch up – seeing some reports now, all within the last hour. One from the NY Post – https://nypost.com/2026/04/07/world-news/wild-video-shows-fireball-consume-panama-canals-bridge-of-the-americas-killing-one/
Post article says a fuel tanker exploded under a bridge, but other reports say more specifically that it was a tanker truck. Nothing to say it was anything other than an accident at this point.
I seem to remember the Chinese making some sort of threat, although this hasn’t been their style up to this time
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116363336033995961
@realDonaldTrump
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
—–
[Comment untyped due to family nature of this blog]. The psychopath is treating this like reality TV.
Is he actually threatening civilizationcide? And trying to claim that it will not be his fault but that he was forced into it? If he does that then the Gulf State countries & Israel are toast and here comes the Great Depression 2.0. No need to worry as Trump and his buddies will use their billions to buy up whole industries like how it went down in Russia back in the 90s. Only this time it will be the whole world being pillaged by Trump and his buddies. I am really beginning to think that this might be Trump’s end game.
Looks like he is indeed channeling his inner Croesus.
That does not bode well for us USians… not for most anyone else, either.
My thoughts exactly. Read this way, Trump’s last sentence take on a different meaning as well: “47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”
I’d prefer if it were 47’s years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end
I understand your preference. But in my reading God is blessing “the Great People of Iran” for ridding the world of this source of “extortion, corruption, and death.” More in line with the Marjorie Taylor Greene version of Christianity – and Trump.
Oof – I just got your comment Ben. Too subtle for my feeble brain this morning.
Yes, the numerology is nicely reflexive too. It reminds me of how much of his remarks about Iran to the press yesterday sounded to me like factual and morally appropriate descriptions of the USA and Israel.
First as tragedy, then as farce.
First as tragedy, then in Farsi
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”
Yes, it could well be the US but if we are lucky, it will be Israel in its Zionist entity form.
Croesus as well as Crassus
Middle East Spectator — MES [Telegram]
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran cancels all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the United States and announces the suspension of any and all message exchanges, following Trump’s latest threat – Reuters
“Tune in to see what happens tonight on As the TACO Turns!”
He’s raving like Hitler in his bunker.
At least Hitler was situationally aware enough to know when he was truly defeated.
Trump may be raving like Hirler but the Soviets–IRGC are not currently marching through Bethesda. Per military historian David Stahel, (his Operation Barbarossa book), Hitler was “situationally defeated” by June 26 (four days in) when the Panzers ran so far ahead that the infantry could neither catch up nor protect their supply lines. But both were defeated the moment they said Go!
The US military has nowhere the capacity to accomplish this through conventional means.
So this is either an all-in bluff, or he’s really prepared to order a nuclear strike if he doesn’t get his way. (But what happens if he doesn’t get his way and he was just desperately bluffing?)
I mean it could be rhetoric and haha we’re totally not meant to take that sort of thing literally. But it’s really quite disturbing. Like, completely unhinged. Concerrned.
Its times such as this that you desperately hope that Lucy snatches the nuclear football away from Charlie Brown.
Here is hoping, but yeah.
Dear Susie, I will forgive your awfulness if you will perform a simple task for me which is to swap in the enclosed Rawlings NFL football for the nuclear football during Trump’s afternoon nap.
Well, I guess the Western “civilization” was a good idea while it seemed like it could be reality, but it will be finally be exposed in full as a pack of savages tonight unworthy of the name “civilization.”
If I walk to the street from where I live and turn right I come to a high end outdoor mall that is busy, lots of new cars and restaurants that don’t show the price on their menus.
If I turn left I come to a bridge over Santa Rosa Creek, there are, at present, six people living under that bridge. If I walk a bit farther I can see the top of the new jail which cost several hundred million dollars.
My SNAP benefits came through yesterday, all $44 dollars went to Olive oil and other high quality fats, when I passed the cheap gas station regular had dropped to $5.49 per gallon…
In a matter of Months most of the population here will have a choice of eating very simply or buying enough gas to make it to their part time job.
It’s going to be a hard crash and it is no more than a few months away.
Thanks for the real world update and I must say, what reads like the opening paragraph or so of a John Irving novel. Deeply vivid.
Please check your e-mail.
New dose of copium from the FT just now:
The Iran war shock is about half the size of Covid-19:
An assessment almost six weeks into the latest global economic crisis
Waiting for the comments to explode on this. No way to archive it right now, sorry.
I found something interesting. It seems that Iran has managed to break the US sanctions regime, as a side effect of the conflict:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4572932-cintrini-research-analyst-gets-first-hand-look-at-strait-of-hormuz
So, it sounds like individual countries are negotiating with the Iranians to unfreeze assets.
Lindsey Graham just kicked a puppy, somewhere.
Kick save and a beauty, Kristi gets the rebound, shoots and scores!
Needs a coffee warning! Man oh man
here is the primary source for that Tweet re. Iran wanting Vance as lead negotiator…. (should auto-translate from Farsi)
https://x.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/2041403887295266928
Twitter regurgitates Fars with varying degrees of fidelity
Latest from Trump:
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
NagasakIran
Fourth Turning again, exactly 80 years @ present between uses on humans.
And what I assume is Iran’s response:
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30505#
Sounds like intent to commit genocide.
sounds like a threat of using nuclear weapons
Sounds like a good time to stock up on beans and whiskey.
Once again i’m thankful that nobody would ever waste a perfectly good nuke on Fresno…
From 40 years ago. Melodramatic slapstick. Mostly bombed with TV audiences. Carol Burnett and others were funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uL5bYdAlmUw
Or maybe bullets, beans & bacon. What’s life without some sizzling bacon?
Bacon… remember that Abraham was tested by God to sacrifice his son, Isaac, and was stopped just before by an AotL, with a ram provided as alternative victim? Just wonderin’ whether the don’t-eat-pork deal was perhaps another test, just God forgot to hit the stop button this time.
If you were asked to sacrifice your son how would you know it was God and not the other guy making the demand?
Oooh… perhaps the whole no-pig deal was a joke promulgated by the Other Guy, and he’s still grinning about it.
I wonder what would have happened if a few days ago Iran had said to all GCC, You have until 6 PM EDT April 6 to get all US/Israel forces out of you country or we will be merciful and only bomb you back to 1920?
I find the frequent reference to 47 concerning as well. Are we looking at a Dr. Strangelove scenario with this being Trump’s POE?
He did not say which civilization.
I fully expect Taco Tuesday to go ahead as scheduled, but increasingly feel as though the sound and fury of these endlessly resurrected deadlines is a sort of chaos signal, like an inversion of the June and February mid-negotiation sucker punches. El Presidente endlessly crying wolf, if you like, but eventually wolves there will be, who’s to say when?
Maybe that’s a little too much ascription of this whole charade to a master plan but it could just as well be that one of the more unhinged elements in and around the administration finally gets their blood whisper into boss man’s ear at just the right moment, sort of like what I believe happened with the clear attempted assassination of VVP back December or so.
Impressed with your chart reading!
Yes, it is interesting and instructive as well. I have not seen an Astrodienst chart in some years and have never seen a horary chart. You continue to surprise.
ZOMG I missed something very important!
The time in question is a refranation!
This is THE MOST reliable indicator in a horary. It means something does not work out, even little things like setting a time for a meeting (they get rescheduled or someone cancels or is very late).
Technically:
https://mistykuceris.com/articles/refranation-in-astrology/
If you pursue an action on a refranation (say trying to get a refund) not only does it fail but it is typically a lose-lose, with worse consequences to the initiator (like you get in a row with an uncooperative store staffer, who goes to the boss and gets your account cancelled)
This is a refranation to Mars, the God of War, which = don’t argue, don’t fight…..
So far, Iran has failed to exact a cost on the main warmakers. Hurting the global economy and civilians in the region is a price those warmakers are willing to pay. They are not the ones who will suffer.
I would like to see Iran target more oligarch assets. I’m sure the Adelsons, for example, have assets in Israel. Iran should also destroy every 5- and 4-star hotel in the region. There aren’t any tourists there at the moment and that is where Israeli leadership and US officers are likely to be hiding. As an added bonus, these hotels are owned by zionist oligarchs.
Iran should also take out Israel’s odious skin bank, if for no other reason than to keep the Israeli’s from harvesting organs from the Palestinians.
I don’t think Iran has “failed” to exact that cost. I think their plan hasn’t called for it… yet. They’ve shown the ability to plan this war.
Agreed, plus Iran has had measure out force carefully in order to avoid a (Pandora’s Box) nuclear response.
Iran should take out the zionist entity’s desalination plants. The zionists wade about knee-deep in the blood of their neighbors, so let them bend down and have a drink. But the Iranians aren’t judeo-christians and, as a consequence, are too fine a people to do that, but the people of the entity have something coming to them, something both terrifying and beautiful. Justice.
I expect security at US LNG terminals has already been stepped up, but a tankerful of that stuff is quite a bomb.
dump their bitcoin?
Describing Trump as a Psychopath is not hyperbole, given the choice of admitting he fucked up or destroying all life on this planet he will destroy the planet.
This is how a Grandiose Narcissist with full blown dementia behaves, it’s real.
I believe the only way to avoid the destruction of the planet and merely have a world wide depression is for someone to remove Trump.
He’s certainly giving the great man theory of history theory a very hard knock.
Might get it replaced by ‘the occult scheming of moronic, amoral and rapacious deviants’ theory.
If anything it seems to me Trump bolsters the great man theory in its inverse. The dreadful man theory? The great fool theory? Whatever it is describes Caligula?
I sincerely hope he will use this script for this afternoon’s press conference.
Considering Trump’s history in bankrupting casinos, my guess would be that this time he will bankrupt & destroy the global economy casino as well.
And if we also take into account Ben Panga’s MPA theory (interesting approach, thanks!) I believe that he’ll gamble it all.
I don’t currently see a timeline where he would concede defeat and accept Iran’s terms.
And unfortunately with a hubris so strong, the nemesis will be far reaching.
Per AJ
IRGC: Our response will extend beyond the region if US crosses ‘red lines’
Iranian state-linked media is reporting on a statement from the Revolutionary Guard, in which it said that it will not hesitate to respond in kind if the US attacks civilian facilities.
The US president says he will strike Iranian power plants and bridges in mere hours if Iran does not agree to open the Strait of Hormuz.
“We will do to the infrastructure of America and its partners what will deprive them and their allies of the region’s oil and gas for many years”, the statement reads.
“American leaders lack the ability to calculate the critical assets that would be within range of our fighters if they attacked our infrastructure”, it added. “Our response will extend beyond the region if the US military crosses our red lines”
As I just posted above, LNG tankers are huge floating bombs.
This missive from Iran reported by Al Jazeera suggests, to me, a possible attack on the u.s. homeland. Of course I might imagine Iranian agents inside the u.s. but I wonder if Iran may have a cyberattack up their sleeve. I doubt the u.s. infrastructure or civilian Internet present especially hard targets.
A few men with hunting rifles could conceivably take out the US grid. Not joking. We’ll know by about 10pm if that happens.
My engineering grad advisor (an Iranian, lol) had modeled which nodes were vulnerable and how. He had at least a Top Secret clearance and presented to W’s NSA on several occasions. My thesis was disaster response, so his work was also a good part of my work.
I wonder what might happen if Iran created an EMP pulse over the Kayman Islands or some similar locale.
On “Iran’s 10-point response demands: permanent end to war (not pause)” I’m not sure how that will be achieved. I’m not even sure Iran knows how that will be achieved.
This can only come about with some kind of security guarantee and the only countries able to provide Iran with a security guarantee are China and Russia and it’s not clear how deeply they want to be involved.
Mearsheimer has consistently said that if Iran had a nuclear deterrence it’s unlikely it would be attacked. Yet, Russia and China both signed the JCPOA and I assume they still oppose Iran not having nukes. If so, where does Iran’s security come from in order to prevent another Israel/US attack? For obvious reasons the US does not want to provide Ukraine with a security guarantee and I assume Russia and China might also have doubts when it comes to Iran.
Either the US agrees to drop its obsession on Iran having a nuke or the 3-powers agree that West Asia will be a nuclear free zone and Israel gives up its nukes which seems impossible.
the only way that this could be assured is if 1) US is permanently expelled from the region 2) Israel ends in its current form and is replaced by a democratic Palestinian state.
1 is eminenty achievable, even on track, but 2 still seems remote. If boots on the ground are a necessary precondition for regime change in Iran, the same is true for Israel, and it’s hard to see where those boots can come from. Hamas and Al Qassam might not have much fight left, there doesn’t seem to be much of a resistance movement in the West Bank; Hezbollah are a guerilla group, Jordan has nothing, and Syria is no more.
Iran needs security and a deterrence. Removing US bases from the region will not prevent Israel from attacking Iran once again, assassinating Irans leaders, and fomenting revolution.
The US might leave the GCC countries but it has a major presence in Turkey, Diego Garcia, etc., which is something else.
Moreover, time is crucial. A Palestinian state and removing the US is years away even if you start today. The Strait of Hormuz can’t stay closed for years without a global economic collapse.
But the Strait could stay ‘closed’ for years.
Enter Ramzan Kadyrov…
Can you imagine the Chechens in Israel?
You forgot that 90-million country to the southwest of Israel, armed to the teeth by the US of all countries and which stands to lose food security because of Israel’s decision to attack Iran. That’s one population bound to get restive soon… and if Israel nukes them, they get caught in the fallout, too.
I thought about Egypt but they would need to get their own house in order first. Sisi is there to keep the population away from Israel
Yep, but my point is that the Egyptian house is about to get very much in disorder very soon, and there’s nothing Sisi can do about it. Directing popular fury against Israel wouldn’t even be scapegoating since they are the reason Egypt is in such a tight spot. In fact, one could argue that mobilising against Israel is the best option for survival of the Egyptian dictatorship, or will be very soon.
Of course, Sisi will avoid that to the utmost because he ascended to power by toppling and purging the Muslim Brotherhood, is incurably hostile to them as he consider them Saudi tools, and associates Hamas with them. But either he shows some ideological flexibility, or he might find his neck in a noose soon.
Without American bases and U.S. aligned countries in the region to provide logistical and intelligence support, and allow overflight of Israeli aircraft & missiles, how much of a threat would Israel be to Iran?
Is Vance hinting at nukes?
Vance: We’ve still got tools in our toolkit to use (Telegraph w/video)
JD Vance has warned that the Trump administration still has “tools in our toolkit” to use against Iran.
The vice president suggested that there would be more military strikes on the Islamic Republic if the Iranians “don’t change their course of conduct”.
He said: “We feel confident that we can get a response, whether it’s positive or negative, from the Iranians by 8pm tonight. I hope they make the right response.
“What we really want is a world where oil and gas is flowing freely, where people can afford to heat their homes and cool their homes, where people can afford to transport themselves to work.
“That’s not going to happen if the Iranians are engaged in acts of economic terrorism, so they’ve got to know, we’ve got tools in our toolkit that we so far haven’t decided to use.
“The president of the United States can decide to use them, and he will decide to use them, if the Iranians don’t change their course of conduct.”
—-
Danny Davis soon to go live with title “Did Trump just threaten to nuke Iran tonight?”
Russia, Venezeula and Cuba would like to have a word with the vice president…
Of course J D Vance is one of the biggest tools of all.
I’m disconcerted by my belief that there is/has been a cadre of low yield nuke proponents who think if they use one the whole world will prostrate themselves to their “force of will”. I’m sure also that Claude et al will say escalate because that is what those who trained Claude would say.
Move fast and break things.
Here is Pilate, washing his hands.
Dear Sir,
Through the courtesy of business opportunity, I take liberty anchored on strong desire to solicit your assistance on this mutually beneficial and risk-free transaction, which I hope you will give urgent attention. May I seize this opportunity to introduce myself as not one of those Persians, and thanks for the guns!
This proposal is anchored on the fact that I am a close friend to the son of Iran’s former Head of State LATE AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI. The son MOJTABA KHAMENEI was my schoolmate and a very close friend. Our relationship took me into the KHAMENEI family, where I have since over 16 years been accepted and regarded as a trustworthy, reliable family friend. However, since after the mysterious death of Epstein, his co-conspirators have reposed more trust/confidence in me and have chosen me as a close confidant, mostly when almost all his late father’s friends have disappointed him. It is of note that on the instance of my friend ZEINAB, her father Late General QASEM SOLEIMANI promoted me while he was Iran’s Commander of Quds Force to my present status and I have vowed to help them now that they are in dare need. “A good turn they say deserves another”.
Your cover for the movement of the cash will be untraceable and we shall provide shield against suspicion. For your understanding, cooperation and assistance, Manna has mandated me to offer you 20% of the total sum the USA has spent on this war ($20 Billion U. S. Dollars) i.e $4 Billion U. S. Dollars. Other details would be furnished when I hear from you. Thanks for your anticipated cooperation.
‘HealthRanger
@HealthRanger
It’s going to be an interesting day for sure when the typical American suddenly realizes that when Al Jubail is burned down, the supply chain of lubricants will collapse. And when the lubricants collapse, then trucks don’t run and forklifts don’t fork. And when forklifts don’t fork and trucks don’t truck, there’s not going to be much food that appears on grocery store shelves.’
Seems like every other week we learn about a new vital material that originates from the Gulf but that is now blocked. Lubricants? Apparently lubricants are made by blending refined base oils with other stuff, But you need the oils first.
How soon people forget the shortages during COVID. I work on aircraft. There was a lack of oil filters for 3 months for piston engine planes. People calling around for filters talked to my boss, I’ll buy everything you have! His response, I’ll sell you 2, there is a shortage. Then engine cylinders, then overhauled engines. Got through it because of reduced aircraft use during lockdowns. Aeroshell 7 grease became unavailable, that can ground a plane. When a specified lubricant and alternatives are unavailable it requires engineering to approve an alternative. Then the component might have to be overhauled to clean out an incompatible grease before using the new grease. Aviation is not simple, it works on the idea of we know what works and do not change anything, so we know it is safe.
The “pilot rescue” saga just posted on presstv.ir. An Iranian account of events.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/07/766446/press-tv-exclusive-us-suffered-strategic-defeat-failed-isfshan-operation
Allowing for pro-Iranian spin, this is pretty close to my own interpretation of events based on the various alt media sources I’ve read or watched.
I was curious as to how our mainstream media would cover this story. Based on what I saw on NBC News and elsewhere, it was pretty much patriotic stenography all the way: a daring rescue of a brave, wounded US fighter by our valiant troops. No mention that I could see of the many puzzling questions about the “rescue” mission raised by critics and discussed here at NC yesterday, and very little on all the hardware that was lost. The official narrative was simply reported as fact.
At least there has been a little pushback on Trump’s threat to obliterate Iran in the MSM. Unfortunately these are just the usual “strongly worded statements” by the usual “opposition” that have no actual effect.
Note that in the Press TV piece, they do not say that the first downed pilot was rescued. The only rescue they say took place was getting the ambushed US troops out of the area where the C-130s were destroyed, which was not where the first pilot supposedly went missing. Meanwhile, I don’t believe the US has shown any pictures of this pilot, or given a name. All we have is the word of extremely untrustworthy US officials and their made-for-Hollywood story.
Probably still looking for just the right actor to play the injured ‘hero’.
Re; Press TV Exclusive: US suffered major strategic defeat in failed Isfahan operation
This story seems credible.
‘Donekirk’
Dumkirk
“Iranian Armed Forces were in full alert, waiting for them.”
Who on earth could have tipped them off?
Perhaps at 8 pm, EDT, Trump will declare victory because Iran had capitulated and ships were entering and exiting the straits. The expected result would be lower gas prices and higher stock prices.
Nothing else would change, and the war would continue under a veil of secrecy, more or less.
It’s off topic but…
Grant Foster’s and Stefan Rahmstorf’s paper, ‘Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly’ shows global mean surface temperature from five data sources, adjusted for: El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar luminosity.
A log-linear plot of their Figure 1 shows global heating is exponential, ie, accelerating, and we will hit 2C somewhere between 2034 and 2038. Climate scientists have told us we should not go beyond 1.5C. We are there, now.
Trump’s greatest crime is to deny the greatest threat humanity has ever faced and abdicate any sense of leadership. His second greatest crime is to blow up the world and destroy its economy before we get there.
All apparently to line his pockets with money, which he doesn’t understand, and dominate the world with his power, which he does understand but only as a spoiled child.
As Tacitus said of Rome, “To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles they call Empire; and where they make a wasteland, they call it peace.”
Nature will have the last laugh, although it will not be a laughing matter.
It says something profound that at this time, Americans voted for Trump and that all over the world, people hand on his every word and submit to his thuggish corruption.
(Disclaimer: irony alert)
Quite the contrary, Trump is doing more than anyone ever to counter climate change, by destroying the fossil fuel based economy at its core.
Unfortunately, Trump hasn’t ceased supporting climate change. Coal is replacing oil in many places.
Also he is decreasing the supply of plastic, lessening the plastic pollution problem.
Maybe Greenpeace will give him a medal.
Who knew he was the Degrowth candidate?
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. I would have preferred a more gradual, planned approach to the problem but nobody else could have done so much so quickly.
To me, there is a very simple explanation for Mearsheimer’s selective blindness referenced above.
Neorealism in general has always had a huge blind spot, and that is – it essentially assumes economics does not exist. Meaning, at no point will states act for economic reasons, or, more specifically, at no point will states go to war for economic reasons, be they straight up wealth acquisition (looting), imperialism-as-end-stage-capitalism, or whatever. And, consequently, economic power or economic security do not exist; neorealism treats both as purely military dimensions.
Just to give a simple example – Mearsheimer and other neorealists (ones faithful to the creed, at any rate) physically cannot state, admit or even say out loud, that we invaded Iraq in 2003 because we wanted to take their oil. No, it had to be some non-economic security reason, so either we must have mistakenly wanted to make Iraq into a US-style liberal democracy to increase our (military) security – the Liberal Hegemony explanation, which used to be called the Democratic Peace Theory – or it must have been the Israeli lobby that made us to it to enhance Israel’s military security. The simplest explanation that we wanted to take the oil, and then put our military bases in the dead center of an oil-rich Middle East – and on oil-rich Iran’s western border – simply does not compute.
In similar vein, he has repeatedly stated that he cannot fathom why the US has been going at Russia, including via the proxy war in Ukraine. I believe it might have been Condi Rice who said “Russia is a country with 2% of the world’s population, and 40% of the world’s natural resources”. But to neorealism, this is not a thing. Ever.
I assume this goes back to trying to distinguish themselves from the marxists in the room – who often overbalance the other way, stating that every war is driven by economics (not Vietnam, at least not directly, and not the current war in Ukraine, at least not for the Russian side). And remember, Mearsheimer himself had said in passing that back in the 60s-70s, International Relations schools of thought in the US did still include marxists as distinct from neorealists. But that’s more of a guess on my part.
So here, Mearsheimer cannot, by his creed, acknowledge that Iran does not need a military as powerful as the US-China-Russia triumvirate, or a a bunch of nukes, to play at the same level, because Iran can control an economic chokepoint. [Incidentally, China’s big policy emphasis since 2014 – Belt-and-Road, stronger Russian ties, Northern Sea Passage – has been aimed squarely at bypassing similar maritime chokepoints in Asia, but again, the neorealists by definition cannot see this.]
Good observation, and, un a way, neorealists share the neoliberal economy takes care of itself on its own–thus its functions lie outside international politics.
Thank you. The overthrow of Mosaddegh in the 50s was about the oil. Iran took away Western control of the oil when they ousted the shah. Now the West wants the control back, which is why any Western opposition to what is quite clearly a war of aggression has been tepid at best. Keeping the land based aircraft carrier that is the Zionist entity happy is just a side benefit.
Thanks for that.
Re Marxists in IR, Christopher Layne’s Peace of Illusions (2006) is a fine review of post WW2 IR that was occasioned by his consternation over the lack of a peace dividend after the Soviet collapse. He believed it made the most sense to return to William Appelman Williams’ emphasis on capitalism and the need for markets. Iirc, in part he traces a devolution in the presentation of US strategic necessities by the elites themselves, starting with the immediate postwar period in which there were frank admissions in congressional presentations of a need for markets and related resource access to obscurantist posturing about “freedom.” From this angle, then, Mearsheimer’s realism is ideological, in the apologetic, myth-oriented sense.
Is the Pete Hegseth Top Brass military meeting still a go?
Only so much time for some tin-hat false flag/ Coupe de Ville (hat tip to Marie Antoinette and Melania)
‘Let them eat yellowcake…’
Hm that´s a rather very dark-ish one
“What I Didn’t Find in Africa”…
I grew up on blackened humor, the darker the better.
then humour is like chocolate
Re my ask yesterday for a big picture take on the cumulative damage to economic infrastructure, Insurance Journal sorta delivers; I say sorta because there’s not nearly enough context to know what it means. But it’s a purportedly comprehensive list, fwiw: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/04/07/864740.htm
Tehran synagogue damaged by missile strike according to Iranian media
https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/israeli-airstrikes-completely-destroy-tehrans-rafi-nia-synagogue
Singapore will not negotiate for safe passage through Strait of Hormuz: Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/strait-hormuz-safe-passage-vivian-balakrishnan-6040981
Mojtaba Khamenei: ‘Unable to make decisions’: Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei ‘unconscious’ as war rages on
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/unable-to-make-decisions-irans-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-unconscious-as-war-rages-on/articleshow/130075992.cms
US strikes Iran’s main oil hub on Kharg Island as IRGC warns: ‘Restraint is over’
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ol076ejw1
Report: Iran’s president accuses IRGC commanders of undermining ceasefire efforts
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rk3308z2zg
Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith charged with five war crimes offences
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-07/ben-roberts-smith-war-crimes-allegations-arrest/106537668
Israel threatens Iran’s trains, railways before Trump’s deadline expires
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/israel-warns-iranians-to-avoid-trains-as-trump-deadline-approaches
Someone on Twitter suggesting Trump is excited about using graphite bombs which are apparently able to destroy electrical grids without firing a shot. I had never heard of them.
https://www.wionews.com/photos/-graphite-bomb-how-us-can-turn-off-venezuela-s-lights-without-firing-a-shot-1766060464352
Article states delivery vehicle either B-2 or F-35. Flight over much of Iran is not uncontested.
They are old: I’d heard of them at least in context of Iraq in 2003 and possibly even Yugoslavia in 1998. Not much came out beyond some claims of their “miraculous” properties, though.
Graphite bombs were used in the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999. They were highly effective in short-circuiting power lines and causing blackouts. However, there was no long-term damage as far as I know, as the short circuit would simply cause a breaker to flip. The repair crew would turn it back on several times, until all the graphite burned out.
Bridge linking Saudi Arabia to Bahrain closed over Iranian threats as Trump’s deadline nears
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-7-2026-421ee64fdc9a5c26460df8119c7d1b3f
China’s Xi urges faster development of new energy system as Middle East war continues
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/06/chinas-xi-urges-faster-development-of-new-energy-system-as-middle-east-war-continues.html
Hamas given until week’s end to accept disarmament proposal — sources
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-given-until-weeks-end-to-accept-disarmament-proposal-sources/
US Army kicks off land forces exercise with 4 other nations in the Philippines
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2026-04-07/army-salaknib-exercise-philippines-21302363.html
“- 5 different heads of state and 8 different heads of intelligence agencies have directly contacted Iranian officials in the past few days and tried to push for a ceasefire.
– The heads of these countries openly talk about the extreme pressure on Trump from the Israel lobby.”
Did any of them contact Israeli officials? Have any of these partries banded together and attempted to put pressure on Israel?
The Mossad photo and video collection is extensive
8 P.M. is not that good. Could you change it to between 1 and 2 P.M., or if possible, 1 and 2 A.M.? Thank you for your attention to this important matter. I.E.Z.
This is the polite Iranian answer, in line with the famous U.S. answer:
Nuts!
As if USanians were any longer capable of such grit. Trump is the Mad Ludwig CEO, used to having everyone jump at his commands. Not that the stories of Biden the Screamer and Kamala Harris the Screamer are much different. Let’s not kid ourselves.
If I may. All ten points from Kobeissi:
Iran’s 10-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz
7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship
8. Iran would split these fees with Oman
9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz
10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparationsre
So, brethren and sistren, which of the ten is unreasonable? Have at it.
My answer: None of them, but the U.S. capability at diplomacy is so deteriorated that Rubio and Graham and Vance will make a mess of this opportunity to settle a war. Iran is insisting on conditions that are normal conditions for an independent state. The U.S. response is guaranteed to be more sneering, grandstanding, weird futures trading, patriotic blubber / gore, and threats.
On the other hand, I am inclined to think that the U.S. superweapon that they are claiming to have in reserve is Hillary Clinton, Grandmama of Death, riding a pale and starving horse among the clouds and inflicting pain, inflicting pain, inflicting pain.
Unreasonable to whom?
I think Israel, Bibi, and a fair number of Israeli’s would say, as much as Iran has said,
That’s a non-starter.
I guess I need to hear what the Art of the Deal Very Stable Genius thinks. As he often says, “We’ll see”.
my mom used to say, “Maybe so…” Vaguely hopeful, certainly non-committal. When is my tee time?
“Israel, Bibi and a fair number of Israelis” – Interesting formulation. Kind of like “me, myself and I”. I guess you just mean Israel.
Israel doesn’t use Hormuz so 6-10 don’t apply. What’s left would stop it attacking and occupying its neighbours which any reasonable person would consider reasonable. Unfortunately most Israelis aren’t reasonable.
So what we’re left with is that the war and a global catastrophe must continue for Greater Israel.
It even comes with a payment plan. What’s not to like? I urge the US to accept.
But the 64 million dollar question: How can the US be trusted to abide by any agreement, when the lawless regime in Warshington only break agreements, tear up treaties, mock the rule of law, and negotiate in deceit?
I was going to post it, too. Number 10 is an important refinement – the toll is NOT reparations. I wonder if reparations will be paid in territory (with oil).
I read #10 as expressed here to mean that Iran would fund reconstructions from tolls rather than explicit reparations, I.e. the tolls are the reparations. I didn’t read it as Iran reserves the right to seek reparations on top. But it can be read either way.
the problem is that there are no assurances possible for 1-5 except Trust Us, Bro.
There could quite easily be assurances. How about a non aggression pact between the Gulf countries and those that border Israel (with or without Israel itself) with an Art 5 type provision saying an attack against one is an attack against all? Backed by the UN and US, Russia and China individually.
Article 5 assurances mean very little:
1. Article 5 merely = you consider intervening. There is no obligation
2. The Gulf states are not independent operators. They don’t have meaningful militaries. They host US bases. They are even more vassals than European states are.
Ok. Let’s say they’re obliged to cut off all trade with Israel and support Iran’s right to retaliate. I’m assuming the Gulf states want this over and realise their vassalitude has turned out to be useless. Also US plutocrats need Gulf money. Not saying it will happen but it could.
I chewed you out before. This is Making Shit Up.
We have been providing frequent information that the Gulf States ex Iraq, Oman, and Qatar are fully on board with this war.
i meant to send this earlier, but i was busy makin 30# of dutch oven lasagne on that fire over there.
its germane to this asschewing:
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/4/6/a-new-regional-order-for-the-strait-of-hormuz
seems to me that the gulf states, ex oman, perhaps…are still in the denial/bargaining phase(much like mr market), and are clinging to the normality bias.
this is consistent with what i remember of people like wallerstein, etcd.
inertia and habit, plus a habit of mind that includes short term focus and an almost religious belief that their current state can only improve…so this simply must be temporary, right?
“…Mind you, this is not the first time the normally very well-grounded Mearsheimer has offered wildly America-positive views. Not only has he depicted confrontation with China as warranted, but he has sunnily depicted the US as the obvious winner…”
I have a few quibbles with his general outlook on the US/Israel relationship as well.
Mearsheimer’s theoretical orientation is described as Realist (theory of International Relations) or “offensive Realist”.
His US positive outlook is likely colored by an implicit ethnocentric bias, theoretical bias. China’s foreign policy elites do not subscribe to this theory, and “inevitable confrontation” with China views the situation from a US lens and largely ignores China’s. Confrontation is only inevitable if the US chooses that, policy is a human construct, after all – it is whatever humans make it, not to sound trite. Self-fulfilling prophecy comes to mind as well.
While it is clear that the US/Israel relationship is unique in certain ways, I think it is too convenient to place all the focus on US foreign policy on Israel and the Lobby. Without opening a can of worms, the UK/US (and earlier Russia) have been meddling in Iranian affairs for a few centuries. Mossadegh was overthrown in 1953, but that had nothing to do with Israel, for example. Anglo American imperial designs in the region predate Israel. As usual, this is a more complex issue and many other factors are involved.
People like Michael Hudson, Col. Larry Wilkerson, Ali Abunimah, and others have pointed out that Israel acts as a forward garrison state for the empire. And prof. Hudson said years ago: They are willing to fight to the last Israeli, and now also to the last Ukrainian. That illustrates the point in short form and the current situation in Israel should make that clear. Like the DT2 regime do not care about Americans, the Netanyahu regime do not care about Israelis.
Oh let’s look at the worms. Are you claiming that the current situation, right now, is not all about Israel? It’s true that back during the Hegseth/Atlantic leak scandal there seemed to be noises suggesting a long term goal was to attack Iran. But then the June attack came and Trump only joined in at the last.
And whatever the relationship with Israel may be, only Trump started a war with Iran despite being told it would be a disaster. Rubio suggested Israel was the reason and it certainly quacks like a duck.
Do we think that plans to “bomb bomb bomb Iran” are new? Why was Mossadegh overthrown by MI6/CIA? Do we think that petroleum products, petrochem, strategic shipping and logistics choke-points, and USD hegemony are not factors? Do we believe that China’s BRI and Iran’s relationship with Russia are not a factor? Do we believe that the US has no interests in the region, aside from serving Israel?
The explanation is much more complex than “it’s all about Epstein and Israel”. That simply does not explain the long-term policies.
Also illustrative is: cui bono? Israel is getting hammered, while the US MICIMATT , BigOil, and other US interests are making a killing. If this is “all about Israel” then why don’t we fly into Ben Gurian and party in Tel Aviv for awhile. Sounds like fun eh
Reader Raspberry Jam provided an update from Israeli society and said that everyone she’s spoken to sees this war as in Israeli interests.
Israel’s (perceived) interests appear to be perpetrating genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity on an historical scale. Such a pity
Prof. Pape’s latest Substack post, “Bombing to Lose” — explaining the difference between a strike on a power grids’ nodes (the transformers) and hulls (the power generation structures) and how destroying the latter destroys the civilian population’s ability to survive because it deprives them of the continuous power necessary to sustain life for years. Plus “it will not produce the political outcome its advocates imagine. … [It is] a moral disaster for no strategic gain.” He ends with this warning.
“If the United States destroys Iran’s power grid, it should expect retaliation that is broader, harsher, and less controllable than anything seen so far in this conflict. Gulf civilians will be exposed. American personnel and potentially civilians will be at risk. Escalation will not stop at the grid. It will spread. And once it does, it will be far harder to contain than to begin.”
https://substack.com/home/post/p-193459861
interesting. Which antisemitic regime is bombing synagogues, just around Passover? Obviously, Israel (via MoA)
https://x.com/iranscreenshot/status/2041444086687605243
Oh, I see that Ann reportrd on this first.
Unfortunately, Ann’s reports are not easy to search for, as a search for “ann” currently returns 37 results, of which “Ann” is only seven, including the one you just used.
Now i have added 3 more!!!
The trick is to “find” ann by putting a space at the end of the word…at least if you’re using a PC.
No surprise really. The Euro-Ashkenazi Zionists use ethno-religious arguments as a lame excuse to commit atrocities. They don’t really care about Judaism at all, and especially not the swarthy Mizrahi Iranian Jews, they are not part of the Euro-Ashkenazi elites.
Of interest is today’s (Tuesday, 8 AM) interview of Dima’s Dialogue Works with Moscow based John Helmer. This is a meaty interview with too many to list topics. Trump’s mental state and the weekend press conference including his relationship with Jared suggests that we should be worried. He used the term “resistance journalism” which regarding this war is more specific than “alternative journalism.” Who is Maj. Amanda Ryder? A comment is that what may have been a failed uranium extraction raid is spun as a successful airman rescue, may have been planned and coordinated with Israel before the outbreak of the current hostilities.
Here is Helmer’s article about Amanda Ryder:
https://johnhelmer.net/what-the-captured-ryder-documents-reveal-of-the-us-israeli-plan-to-destroy-iran-and-what-comes-next/
Helmer’s general interpretation makes sense to me. Regarding the captured documents, I don’t think the date of Ryder’s Israeli visa means much in itself, but the documents themselves could be very significant depending on whether they reveal anything about the mission. I do think Helmer’s observations concerning the effects of this raid on Trump’s psychological state are quite relevant in accounting for his behavior.
“Moscow based John Helmer”. Helmer is not based in Moscow, Lavrov kicked him out years ago.
Explosions On Strategic Kharg Island, Bridge Hit In Central Iran: Reports
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-us-israel-war-trump-news-explosions-on-strategic-kharg-island-bridge-hit-in-central-iran-reports-11323099
Israel antiwar protests spur intensifying government crackdown
https://forward.com/news/817210/israel-iran-anti-war-protests/
Physical oil prices hit record highs near $150 a barrel as Hormuz crisis worsens
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/physical-oil-prices-hit-record-highs-near-150-barrel-hormuz-crisis-worsens-2026-04-07/
Uff! Trump has started his warcrimes prior to his 8PM deadline. 😮💨
This is not going to end well. 🫠
That’s sadly Pars for the course, another Mulligan.
Mulligan’s Island?
Don’s favorite club is the foot wedge, known for its ability to improve lies.
…well played
you’d think with all that time on course he’d understand the importance of bunkers…
Western Elites, particularly here in the USA, behave as though the needs of the populace do not matter.
They have “Total Information Awareness”, the population management tools perfected in Gaza, the brownshirts of ICE and a sense of total impunity.
They are right, for now.
When 200,000,000 Americans have had it made brutally clear that their lives and the lives of their children do not matter, that it is time for them to “Go Die”, they will get upset.
And they will act out, violently and irrationally because that’s what people do in situations like that.
TPTB will call in the Military when the food riots start, expecting that they can control and profit from the chaos.
Chaos can not be controlled.
I have in the past invited Drama into my life from time to time (Because she was HOT) and what I learned is simple.
When you invite Drama into your life you are going to get a lot more Drama than you wanted or expected.
Qui bono on the pistachio warehouse strikes in Iran
https://the307.substack.com/p/whats-behind-usisraeli-strikes-on
Thanks for the link. Important story.
I have a modest and well-intended suggestion for the government of Iran at this difficult time: re-think the guy who is doing your daily announcements about the progress of the war.
Anyone who is old enough to have gone to Disneyland in the 70s and 80s will recognize him immediately from the Great Moments with Abraham Lincoln animatronic stage show of that time. The same expressionless face, the same overall fixed aspect, the grating unpleasant voice, and the overall sameness to every performance makes it clear that this dude modeled himself on the robot version of the great statesman.
A country of 90 million people will doubtless have some of the finest orators and stage performers on the planet. Have an open casting call and someone vastly better is certain to show up on day one. The existing guy could perhaps do a picture-in-picture version of the presentation in sign language for the hearing impaired, where his wooden aspect would be an advantage so as not to distract from his hand movements, or from anything, really.
Hope they will take this proposal in the constructive spirit in which it is intended. Feel free to contact me for additional suggestions.
I dunno, their William T. Riker lookalike is the perfect foil to Karoline Leavitt, who is constantly perky under pressure, can tell a whopper with utter confidence while lying under oath of a cross dangling from her neck.
He’s more Romulan looking though, hmmmmm.
It has kind of the feel of Adolf telling the Dutch they have to surrender, as Rotterdam is being leveled and Utrecht was next on the target list.
So 20% of world oil passing thru the strait understates the situation if, say, 20-25% jet fuel passes thru… re that product is it 40-45%? And so on for other downstream products such as plastics/diesel/gasoline? You mean I haven’t been scared enough yet?
And I’m still mystified that Iran hasn’t bombed the cross saudi pumping stations… a secret deal to just bomb the us bases?
The IRCG attack on the Saudi petrochemical facility is confirmed:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4572992-irans-attack-on-saudi-arabias-giant-jubail-petrochem-complex-adds-to-global-supply-risk
I want to document a strategy I am seeing on X.com that looks like a deliberate attempt to sow confusion and discredit X.com posters who are early reporters on successful Iranian attacks.
It appears to work something like this:
1. Post appears on X claiming that the Iranians hit a target in Israel, or the Gulf States
2. Post is accompanied by an image that is easily traceable to a different geolocation, perhaps an old image of an attack in Ukraine, or Russia, or some other place
3. Secondary poster appears and says “aha! that is a fake, because different date/geolocation”
The original poster could be a plant from Israel or another entity known for propaganda/info war techniques. It is meant to discredit the veracity of the report. The basic facts described in the post are true (Iran hit XYZ.) But the poster intends to discredit the report through the false image.
The secondary poster may be legit. Because it is so easy to find an image that is easily searchable on the Internet, the malicious actor is relying on the crowd to take the bait.
My prime suspect for this sort of rat-(family blog)-ery is the entity. The Green T-shirt’s cronies could also be involved.
Recall that the Green t-shirt offered help to the Gulf states, and his primary skill set is media victories and fakery.
54% Of Canadians Agree With Banning IDF Service: Poll
https://www.readthemaple.com/54-of-canadians-agree-with-banning-idf-service-poll/
China and Russia veto U.N. resolution on protecting Hormuz shipping
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-vetoes-un-resolution-protecting-hormuz-shipping-2026-04-07/
“Trump is frantic to restart construction on his ballroom/bunker. Why?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-NR7w0sqQ8
Board of Peace Gives Hamas Disarmament Deadline
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/world/middleeast/trump-board-of-peace-hamas-disarmament.html
Does it not seem that this should be the major story of the day?
I’m thinking very few societies can continue to exist with 90% of their drinking water eliminated. Not only is water needed for drinking, but also for running sewer systems and for food preparation and industrial processes of any kind. I’m thinking a nationwide public health crisis will erupt in Kuwait within days, and the only real option is for everyone to leave the country (!). I’m guessing something like this is not happened in recent human history.
Israel, and president Trump, can certainly take the credit for what is likely to be a massive public health disaster.
I guess we have to think of this as maybe coming to all the gulf countries not on a river.
Madman Theory
The “madman theory” is a political theory commonly associated with President Richard Nixon’s foreign policy during the Cold War.
Nixon tried to make the leaders of hostile Soviet bloc nations think the American president was irrational and volatile.
According to the theory, those leaders would then avoid provoking the United States, fearing an unpredictable American response.
One may argue that given the current political circumstances, this is no longer mere theory, but established fact.
Nixon wanted Soviet bloc nations to think he was irrational and volatile.
Trump wants the whole world to think he is, and bow down before him.
China just whispers ‘rare earths’ and he suddenly gets more reasonable.
“See, this is what I’ve been saying all these years, I am not a madman, or the most evil leader in the history of the world. All recent leaders of the USA are the madmen (and that’s the only reason I need all of these nukes!)”
–Kim Jong Un
I don’t see Pape and Mearsheimer necessarily in conflict. Mearsheimer defines hard power as basically GDP, population size, and technological sophistication. This war won’t necessarily affect any of these factors (on a relative basis) viz. Russia or China. When/if Iran takes Gulf oil and gas off line for a decade, its not clear that the US has to suffer a major GDP decline relative to Russia or China. Conceptually, there are serious problems with relying on the first two factors, and technological development is somewhat subjective in itself, and Mearsheimer would likely admit it, but that is what he is basing his opinions on (IMHO).
This is all true:
Mearsheimer also seems willfully blind to the loss of US power, such as having high-cost, not-terribly-fit for-purpose weapons systems, a shrunken manufacturing base, rampant rentierism further enriching billionaires at the expense of productive investment….the list goes on.
. . . but Mearsheimer mainly concerns himself with foreign relations, and I don’t think he pays a lot of attention domestic issues. He wrote on the Israel Lobby, because he believes it impacts foreign relations in a direct way. He has written about American manufacturing and the impact of letting China into the WTO, but primarily focused on foreign relations. Also, all the above was present and will continue to be present whether or not Trump decided to get in an elective war with Iran.
I think Mearsheimer has been pretty clear about the US ending up forced out of the ME, that Israel is on a path to assisted suicide, and that involvement in Ukraine and now Iran has prevented efforts to deter or contain China meaningfully. However, the reality is that America World Policeman with 800 overseas bases actually never did much of anything to enhance US power, and the lose of ground presence on Eurasia (which is where things are headed) won’t actually particularly reduce US power, other than weaking the USD as reserve currency. Obviously, US politicians “feel powerful” when they can swat flies (or democratically elected leaders) across the globe, but this is different from possessing actual hard power.
For a couple decades, there was a sense internationally that America was basically invulnerable, which unfortunately wore off internationally a lot sooner than it did in America. I know its not just, but, yes, America can launch a stupid elective war of aggression, it will probably throw the world into a depression, trash the Middle East and kill thousands, perhaps, millions of people, and in the end walk away and sulk in the Western Hemisphere with disproportionately less impacts than most of the rest of the world, and be more or less the same on a relative power basis than before. But the world isn’t just.
“When/if Iran takes Gulf oil and gas off line for a decade, its not clear that the US has to suffer a major GDP decline relative to Russia or China.” The AI capex is driving the growth in the US and GCC has been pouring lots of dough on the project. And now there are statements that they are reconsidering their previous commitments.
From a hard power perspective, absolute power doesn’t matter, relative power only matters. If you have compound bows you can fire from horse back, and they don’t, and you can move 20 miles a day, and they can’t, you can more-or-less conquer the world. If they have machine guns, not so much.
So a major economic collapse only matters if it has asymmetric impacts on the great powers. US and Russia have a lot of petro, so that will mute the impacts to some degree (I don’t know who would do better or worse). China doesn’t have petro but they have so much wealth, so many people, so much technical knowledge, and they are on good terms with Russia, I don’t see how they wouldn’t end up muddling through finding a source to buy gas/oil (if not Russia, someone else), if not emerging stronger with amazing nuclear and/or renewable energy innovations.
and the main US competitor has overcapacity in the technologies that reduce dependency on fossil fuel and a stranglehold on rare earths. What is happening today in West Asia is turbocharging the technological leadership shift (and all that means) to China. This will (already is) translate into a massive loss in geopolitical power.
As Andre Martyanov has pointed out at length, GDP does not even remotely measure production and capabilities relevant to power projection. Our economy is 70% services and a lot of that is badly rentier infested, like health care and financial services.
Example A. The UK without the City of London GDP is around Mississippi levels … whack on per capita distribution and look out below ….
Words as weapons:
The language that led to war
When a country is portrayed for decades as dangerous, untrustworthy and inherently threatening, the plot of attacking it becomes easier to accept. The current war with Iran reflects this dynamic, after years in which mainstream Western media repeatedly cast it as unsafe, potential threat!
Trump and Netanyahu proudly portray their countries as dangerous, untrustworthy and inherently threatening.
Preparing for the worst, I have already drafted a letter to my PM, in case US/Israel nuke Iran (not that the war off aggression started in Feb 28 wouldn’t deserve a harsher response that we have seen from the global community):
The Right Honourable Mark Carney
Prime Minister of Canada
80 Wellington Street
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A2
[Date]
Dear Prime Minister Carney,
There are moments when language itself collapses. When the full vocabulary of diplomacy, of condemnation, of grief — every word ever written in protest of man’s cruelty to man — proves insufficient. This is such a moment. The deliberate nuclear annihilation of the Iranian people is not a policy error. It is not a miscalculation. It is the single greatest act of mass murder in living memory, and no letter, no resolution, no speech before any assembly can contain the fury, the anguish, and the indelible shame it demands.
What this moment calls for is not words. It calls for a ritual — ancient, primal, and absolute. The kind humanity has always reserved for those who have placed themselves beyond its boundaries: total and collective turning away. A shunning so complete, so universal, that the United States and Israel — their governments and the societies that produced and permitted them — are made to feel, in every transaction, every silence, every averted gaze, that they have forfeited their place among nations. That they are no longer recognized as part of the human family. Not in hatred. In judgment.
History has seen this before. There are acts after which the perpetrator is not argued with, not negotiated with, not welcomed at the table — but simply excluded from the room in which civilization conducts its affairs.
Canada must not only join this exclusion. Canada must lead it.
To fail to do so is not neutrality. It is not pragmatism. It is complicity — silent, comfortable, and unforgivable. A Canada that continues to trade, to share intelligence, to exchange ambassadors and pleasantries with governments that have burned hundreds of thousands of civilians with nuclear fire, is a Canada that has abandoned every principle it ever claimed to hold.
I therefore demand — and I use that word with full deliberateness — that your government act immediately and without equivocation:
1. Sever all diplomatic relations with the United States and Israel, fully and without condition, until international justice has been fully rendered.
2. Recall our ambassadors. Expel theirs. Close the doors.
3. End every trade agreement, every military arrangement, every intelligence partnership — not suspend them, end them.
4. Stand before the United Nations and call upon every nation on Earth to do the same — to lead a global act of civilizational ostracism the likes of which history has never seen, because history has never seen a crime like this.
5. Open Canada’s arms to the survivors of Iran — in refugee status, in humanitarian admission, in whatever form human decency demands.
Prime Minister, the question before you is not political. It is not economic. It is not strategic. It is simply this: when the worst thing imaginable happened, was Canada in the room with the perpetrators — or was Canada standing with humanity?
There is no middle ground here. There never was.
Respectfully, furiously, and without apology,
[Your Full Name]
[City, Province]
[Contact Information]
Another great news roundup as always, Yves. Seeing that clip on jet fuel shortages from a Canadian news network reminded me of a short story I caught on the CBC yesterday about how the constraints on helium supplies stemming from the war are being felt amongst scientists in Canadian universities and research institutions. If it’s of any interest, I’ve found the clip on YouTube:
Kouros, I would add my signature to yours here.
Bravo.
Yes Kouros, well said. I would add my signature as well.
Latest from Sy: https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/the-uranium-question
Sy, it’s not about the nuclear material.
the war would have no reason to go on
https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-bush-jokes-about-wmd-2004-correspondents-dinner/5062602
They found a way before and then they laughed. Hersh is too easily flattered with tall tales.
That clip elicited more disgust in me than I thought it would. Certainly W’s jokes about mythical WMDs were despicable, but the cuts to the audience laughing it up at the jokes were even more vomit-inducing – not least the long cut to Joe Lieberman, whom I’m sure was overjoyed about our Iraq adventure. It also reminded me of Stephen Colbert’s appearance at the same event a few years later where he called out Bush and the “stenographers” of the Washington press to their faces. What ever happened to that guy anyway?
Regarding Hersh, I generally agree about his apparent credulousness these days. But I did find this post useful in a few respects. I can definitely see this claim by Israeli intelligence on the “uranium question” to be behind Trump’s recent Isfahan adventure. But more relevant is Hersh’s observations regarding William Fulbright:
“We had leaders in the Senate then who were unafraid to defy a president from their own party. With few exceptions, that can hardly be said today.”
Amen to that.
What ever happened to Stephen Colbert? Just heard the other day that he is to be the co-writer for the next Lord of the Rings film. No, this is not a joke.
The war will go on so long as Iran’s capabilities as a state are significant enough to threaten Israel’s own designs for the region. [Israel never wanted “regime change,” they wanted Iran shredded up into five pieces between warring ethnic groups.] Look at the 15 demands, most have nothing to do with nukes, they are essentially asking Iran not to behave like a sovereign state. As Iran doesn’t possess nukes, but has now been attacked twice, the actual reasons for the war have nothing to do with nukes. But if America knows anything about fighting an illegal war of aggression, it is to accuse your adversary of possessing nukes, and then attack without provocation. Page 1 of the War Criminal’s Handbook I believe.
No, it’s not about the nukes. Iran’s deterrence is its ability to disable the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf petrochemical industry. I’ve been arguing this on blogs for over a decade. Now we see Iran’s deterrence activated.
Anyone arguing that it’s about the nukes is simply spewing hasbara.
Another great news roundup as always, Yves. Seeing that clip on jet fuel shortages from a Canadian news network reminded me of a short story I caught on the CBC yesterday about how the constraints on helium supplies stemming from the war are being felt amongst scientists in Canadian universities and research institutions. If it’s of any interest, I’ve found the clip on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYiw9f0gElU
(Pardon the re-post, but I saw my above comment didn’t include the link. First time commenter here…)
Some Italian airports warned about shortages, read elsewhere that planes would get max. 2000 liters (supposedly 1 hour of flying time, for which aircraft type I know not). According to this story (from a site I don’t know) shortage is resolved for now. https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/local-suppliers-avert-jet-fuel-disruption-four-italian/
American Journalist Kidnapped in Iraq Is Freed
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/shelly-kittleson-journalist-iraq.html
Survey: Majority want Congress to impeach Trump now
https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/survey-majority-want-congress-to-impeach-trump-now/
At least three killed after rockets launched from Kuwait hit house near Iraq’s Basra, sources says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-three-killed-after-rockets-launched-kuwait-hit-house-near-iraqs-basra-2026-04-07/
Japan sees weakening economic momentum, early signs of war-induced pain
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-sees-weakening-economic-momentum-early-signs-war-induced-pain-2026-04-07/
French nationals freed from detention in Iran, returning to France, Macron says
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-nationals-released-iran-returning-france-macron-says-2026-04-07/
Dry your eyes my little friend
Let me take you by the hand
Iran get ready, Iraq steady
When Donny strikes up the band
They’ll be bombing infrastructure projects
Missiles falling down along the strand
Iran get ready, Iraq steady
When Donny strikes up the band
Donny strikes up the band
When Donny strikes up the …
When Donny strikes up the …
When Donny strikes up the band
And Donny is our main man
He’s the keeper of the nuclear keys
He’ll put your mind at ease
He’s guaranteed to please
Back by popular demand
Look around, my little friend
Jubilation in the Holyland
Iran get ready, Iraq steady
When Donny strikes up the band
Donny strikes up the band
When Donny strikes up the …
When Donny strikes up the …
When Donny strikes up the band
Johnny Strikes up the Band, by Warren Zevon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69lcRB1qco8&list=RD69lcRB1qco8
Fun.
Seems Zevon’s Excitable Boy is appropriate as well, no? Akchully, a lot of his catalog for that matter: e.g. Desperados Under The Eves, Mohammed’s Radio, and so on.
Well, he scribbled threats on the computer doing his best
Excitable goy, they all said
And he tried to get it off his chest
Excitable goy, they all said
Well, he’s just an excitable goy
He talked of the 8 pm dead line
Excitable goy, they all said
That is until he extends it another time
Excitable goy, they all said
Well, he’s just an excitable goy
He took Bibi’s word to do it together alone
Excitable goy, they all said
This would give them more lebensraum
Excitable goy, they all said
Well, he’s just an excitable goy
After 5 years there was talk of removing him from the home
Excitable goy, they all said
And like a gambler looking for action, rolled them U-235 bones
Excitable goy, they all said
Well, he’s just an excitable goy
Excitable Boy, by Warren Zevon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZokPAuhD6k
Despite all his rage, Don’s still just a rat in a gilded cage.
(Possible material for a parody/satire – see, Smashing Pumpkins, Bullet with Butterfly Wings.)
“destroy the mind,
destroy the body
but you cannot destroy the heart.”
Great album. on tomorrows play list.
I always liked An Ode to No One two songs after.
unreal drums. then carnage for the last minute. A little like some of the craziness of jazz but by a rock/metal band.
Some System of a down is similar – Toxicity as an album and track springs to mind.
Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex, IRGC says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-attacked-saudi-petrochemical-complex-jubail-fars-news-agency-says-2026-04-07/
Trump warned his commanders are ‘preparing to defy orders’ amid war in Iran
https://www.joe.co.uk/news/trump-warned-his-commanders-are-preparing-to-defy-orders-amid-war-in-iran-528385
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-impeachment-25th-amendment-war-crimes
Don’t you need a few Republicans?
Buckle up and assume crash positions?
https://x.com/stellarman22/status/2041563448937525592?s=20
Ah, the “defensive” B-52s. Here’s hoping there’s a quick engine failure and one lands on Starmer’s skull.
People can blame the “Mad King” all they want, but none of this happens without the complicity of a lot of people in many different nations.
I put on the album Radioactivity a short while ago. The name of the band is also pertinent.
I would suggest that if there really are nukes on board those planes, this would be a good time for that involuntary commitment/soft coup. I don’t think there’d be any trouble finding a psychiatrist willing to testify to “Mentally Ill and Dangerous,” though I’d hate to be the judge asked to sign off on it. Limo the man to Walter Reed and get the paperwork started; at least it would buy some time.
If the enemy planes are carrying nuclear weapons and make it to their targets, I don’t think many will be convinced by “It wasTrump, not the USA!” I certainly won’t.
I won’t either.
I think the idea would be to put someone else in command before they reach their targets. I’m assuming any orders given could be aborted at this point. The right time to do this would be immediately after Trump gave authorization–that’s when the MI&D designation would be clear–but before anything irrevocable had been done.
Pipe dream, I know. But in a sane system this is what would happen.
Peace On Earth
Purity Of Essence
NY Times exclusive
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran
archive.ph/is not responding right now, so paywalled link above.
LOL, and already a book deal has been made!
They high as a kite, no?
Here it is archived:
https://archive.ph/pffb3
The interesting part about relying on intelligence from a foreign power: the target of the operation might be you.
Here is the thing: no matter what anyone wants to say about Bibi, Israelis, or Mossad, Donald Trump is an enthusiastic collaborator in this monstrous farce of a war.
For most of the world, all this back-and-forth about who goaded whom, Trump or Netanyahu, is just plain silly. The USA and Israel attacked Iran, plain and simple.
I agree. The consensus in Washington has been clear for decades and is clear also now. In Trump Washington finally has the president reckless enough to do it. The personalization in Trump is politically convenient.
This strikes me as a very important piece in revealing what the Establishment spin will be. I’ve only skimmed it so far, but the portrayal of Vance is particularly interesting in this context. Also noteworthy is who was excluded from the final decision-making meeting: the key economic and energy advisers Bessent and Wright (Energy Secretary) and, of course, Gabbard (the DNI!). Neither Caine (Joint Chiefs) nor Ratcliffe (CIA) had the guts or inclination to oppose an attack, but rather coldly laid out the options Ratcliffe provided key info on the Iranian leadership meeting that would allow the main “decapitation” strike. In fact that seemed to be the main “intelligence” driving the decision to move rather than any real threat from Iran. Vance is portrayed as the only one with the balls to disagree, but said he would support whatever decision was made (thus a “loyal” servant as well!).
The Blob is working to shape the narrative. The script is still being written; we should find out what the next several pages will be very soon.
The wording of the piece doesn’t carry a tone consonant with opprobrium. There’s not a ton of new information in it, or much unexpected; I think many of us expected that the cabinet would act like simpering yes-men, leaking their little I-told-you-so’s to the press to protect themselves when things went wrong. I agree with you about the piece’s importance to the establishment of an establishment narrative. What’s continued to amaze me is that no one making more than around $100,000 a year is at all bothered by the principle of an unprovoked attack on a country in the middle of negotiations with its representatives. The White House Counsel said something to the effect of ‘sure, that sounds legal’.
Let’s remember that the Dems, for whose establishment the NYT is the paper of record, delayed a vote on the, yes, symbolic War Powers Resolution until after the attack occurred so that they could use the misery and suffering as a ‘gotcha’ during the midterms, while still appearing adequately hawkish and patriotic.
There is a mention of munitions stocks being depleted, confirming that at least some of those involved hazily recall the fact that they are tethered to material reality, and don’t need the chain yanked, which is about to happen.
– “The wording of the piece doesn’t carry a tone consonant with opprobrium.”
I had to laugh when I read this. You are quite right, but your wording captures the “tone” of the Times piece perfectly. They describe the decision-making process so that we can assign blame if (when) everything goes South. But they do not condemn the war itself based on the ridiculously obvious reasons why any civilized person with a conscience or belief in international law or our own Constitution should object. From my perspective they really have to bend over backwards to avoid such issues. As you imply, it is the stereotypical NY Times “expose” that provides cover for the Establishment position.
My one question is why Vance comes out so well in this piece.
More on depletion of US military assets, and specifically stocks of stand-off weapons. The War Department has called up nearly 80% of the entire stockpile of extended range JASSM air-launched cruise missiles for the Iran War, according to my ‘back of the napkin’ math, and less than 800 remain to use against Iran, with only 425 left in inventory.
https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/US-Deploys-Bulk-of-JASSM-ER-Missiles-in-Iran-War-Global-Stockpiles-Shrink-to-425/
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3349056/us-commits-nearly-all-stealthy-long-range-missiles-iran-war
And here’s more from the Atlantic Council article “Tracking US military assets in the Iran War”:
“Biggest developments since last week:
Current B-1 bomber numbers in Operation Epic Fury likely break the post-Cold War record for a concentrated deployment in one theater. Bombing missions will stack the total number of repair hours [~112 per hour of use] needed for B-1s post-war with unknown impacts to readiness. The high-volume use of B-1s will create future windows where US force generation is severely limited.
The loss of an E-3 AWACS degrades US early warning capability. The US’ low inventory of E-3s, and a stalled replacement program by E-7 Wedgetails, creates a possible vulnerability.
The USS George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group (CSG) deployed from Norfolk, Virginia, this week. Its final destination is unknown, but presumably it will go to the Middle East. The USS Gerald R. Ford is in Split, Croatia, to continue repairs following an onboard fire. If the Ford remains deployed past April 15, the carrier’s deployment will break the post-Vietnam War carrier deployment record of 294 days.”
Here’s a link to the embedded chart, which shows huge % of total assets committed to the Iran War:
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28142905/embed?auto=1
Given the current over-committed and depleted state of our military, if Trump goes ahead with his threat to “bomb Iran back to the stone ages [sic]”, it may turn out to be the ‘last gasp’ of a failing empire attempting to knock down a second tier adversary (compared to Russia or China), and could prove beyond any doubt that the US is now truly a “paper tiger”, albeit one that can still commit massive war crimes.
Two more C-130’s, low overhead, headed West towards Westover Air Reserve Base (or Bradley/Hartford) above my ridgetop in North central CT. A daily occurence, sometimes twice, lately.
US denies nuclear plan as deadline on threat to Iran ‘civilisation’ looms
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/us-denies-nuclear-plan-as-deadline-on-threat-to-iran-civilisation-looms
Is Karoline Leavitt saying something here?
A Greek Tragedy in the making:
Hegseth’s Chorus : On to Kharg Island! On to Isfahan! Oorah Epstein! Oorah Bibi! Israel First.
Chorus of the Masses: Dump Trump or Pay at the Pump.
If Iran constricts the ‘cauldron’ of the Arabian Pennisula to collapse, then intensity will fall on the ‘cauldron’ of Israel. Bombing Iran’s civilian infratructure and putting tactical boots on the ground won’t stop this trajectory. A ‘strategic retreat is called for on part of the US, but Trump lacks the intelligence or personality to understand or execute this manuever. As a result, Iran’s objective will be to create constant pressure on the ‘cauldron’ inside Trump’s mind till, that too, collapses into a vaccuum.
It could be the Bacchae.
(Ref: Plutarch holds that after Crassus was killed (and decapitated), Persians used his head as a prop in the play, as the head of Pentheus. There are some analogous elements between the play and the realities, but that gets too headachy….)
Strange creatures sighting:
https://x.com/ChrisHelali/status/2041533714333577305#m
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Communist_Party_(2024)
HiLux… ,rade
Relatedly, there’s a chart doing the rounds complaining about an excess of rightwing voices on twitter. One if those right wing voices is apparently Jackson Hinckle, cofounder of the American Communist Party. 🤦
He’s the co-founder of the American Communist Party?? He spreads misinformation constantly and definitely has a right-leaning tilt. There’s no way he is a true communist with some of the shit I’ve seen him say.
What little I know of the ACP (obviously distinct from the old school communist party which was definitionally internationalist) it seems to me they’re American-nationalist-tankies. Which is a bit surreal but it takes all sorts. Where did I put my political compass?
ASP; American Stalinist Party?
I do wish them luck but the ACP is an odd split from the CPUSA. They were right to split as the CPUSA has long collaborated with the Democrats and have gotten nothing in return.
The ACP’s leadership tends to be overly conspiratorial, some of the online moderators truly are racist as in they dropped slurs multiple times, and falsely declared certain CPUSA chapters joined in their rebellion when that clearly was not the case AKA forgery.
I will stick with the DSA, even with it’s excessive identity politics, as even the DSA is further to the left than the actual CPUSA.
I am with you in wishing them luck insofar as they are able to push working people’s issues into the fore. But they are founded on an appeal to reactionary sentiment. I view identity politics as disruptive to a left agenda and even racist (my definition of racism is “further subdivisions of homo sapiens sapiens”), but I take issue with the nods by ACP to sexists and racists on the right. Further, the suggestion, what with the 1776 flags and the rhetoric from the Declaration of Independence, that communism is Americanism, was tried by the CPUSA in the 1930’s, and it didn’t work then, either. I also don’t know how serious an alternative politics can be when its constituency is garnered from young people who watch others play video games on the internet. It’s at least three levels removed from the real world.
DSA is one fine option, with all its problems. The socialist parties are, for the time being, places in which we can hone our critique and build organizational skills and allies. We ought to practice disagreeing more, as resolution comes from conflict.
One more from Ryan Grimm and Saagar Enjeti on Breaking Points, utube, ~15+ minutes.
Trump TRASHES US Allies Says Only Gulf, Israel Matter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7YvYl–RE4
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran – The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran – The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html
Trump tears into Tucker Carlson over Iran war claims: ‘Low-IQ person’ (NY Post)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Galligula frequently goes to the low IQ card when upset about somebody, and that hurts as i’m only in the low triple digits.
Goddess help us all, if Trump nukes Iran. If Israel nukes Iran, may no one help them.
Interesting discussions above re Mearsheimer’s blind spots, especially regarding the power balance between the US & Israel in this damn war.
Safety First at 9:30 am notes that Mearsheimer’s NeoRealism is something of an Antithesis to Marxian economic theories of conflict, and therefore willfully avoids considering the [partial] explanatory power of the latter.
Jonny James at 10:43 am counters Mearsheimer with the Hudson/Wilkerson/+ framework, where Israel is viewed as the USA’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Middle East rather than the “Tail that Wags the Dog”.
It seems obvious to me that we need a Synthesis of the two (and other?) frameworks, though I don’t have the chops to propose any Coherent Big New Theory.
Jonny James references the US/CIA coup against Mossadegh to show that US meddling in Iran predates Israeli influence AND was clearly based on economic factors. Fair enough, but that was a long time ago.
But I guess we’re really still arguing about the US invasion of Iraq, and IMO, the best answer is two answers: the PetrOligarchs in the GOP wanted Iraq’s Oil, AND the NeoCons wanted to “Secure the Realm” (Israel). Also, IMO, the Democratic Party put up only token resistance because they couldn’t pay for re-election without Lobby money…
Grand Theories of Power and International Relations are lotsa fun, in an academic way, but Trump is Counter-Exhibit A for any/every Theory: Governments often do things because crazy people wind up in power.
I’ll leave my last words to this week’s Existential Comics, which ends with a rebuttal of John Rawls’ plea for designing Government on Rational Principles: “He believes politics can be based on reason, rather than a chaotic, unpredictable game of force, which perpetuates itself with little to no human planning, and succumbs us all to its blind whims.”
https://existentialcomics.com/
Pakistan seeks two week pause and asks Iran to open the Strait for two weeks as a gesture of goodwill.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/iran-war-trump-deadline.html
The markets are getting a bit of a bump on this into the close.
I admire the market’s optimism, but even a brief reopening of the strait seems to me like a nonstarter. Iran doesn’t have the luxury of blinking.
Perhaps Iran could be convinced to stop firing off missiles and drones, but the USA and Israel would have to first cease all hostilities toward Iran and Lebanon at the very least. An impossible challenge!
Agree. Iran has made it clear it will not and cannot blink. We’ll find out sometime in the next six hours and forty minutes whether Trump will, again.
That bump into the close could have been primarily short-covering.
Pakistan is posturing to an audience here. They know perfectly well, and Iran has stated many times, that a pause simply allows their enemies time to regroup.
Even if DT was pushed out from his Imperator position, replaced by somebody prepared to slap Bibi around, Israel would still try again later to destroy Iran.
Per the WSJ, there’s no pause on the table, just another extension of Trump’s deadline. No doubt in exchange for something that was already happening anyway, like letting a couple of friendly tankers pass.
Mearsheimer espouses structural realism as a theory of IR, e.g. simplification of what is going on in reality in order to predict reality. Realism is to IR what a frictionless plane is to physics. Mearsheimer claims structural realism explains 60-70 percent of what happens in IR, which makes it a good theory, but does not make it Cassandra. Mearsheimer admits that if you want to explain the 30-40 percent not account for by realism, you need a different theory. Further, he wrote the book on the Israel Lobby, which he readily admits operates in a way that conflicts with his theory.
As far as Israel being the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the ME, why the heck would anyone want an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the ME. The Brits were only in the ME because of India, and they needed the ME to secure trade routes to the Far East (hence Middle East). Why is America there?
You can make a strategic case for Taiwan, that Taiwan is the unsinkable aircraft carrier which allows the USA to threaten China, because China is the most powerful country in the world by most measures, and a peer competitor to the US. The US doesn’t want China to gain control of SE Asia, because then they would be in a position to project power globally (like the US does, or used to before Trump). Who could you possible need to contain or threaten in the Middle East? Iran? When is the last time they started a war? Turkey, our NATO ally? There is no cogent strategic case that can be made for Israel, its either some misguided religious sentiment and/or the lobby.
As a means to police all the oil-producing nations there? There was a time when the US was more heavily dependent on the ME for oil.
Regarding East Asia, back in 1983 the Japanese PM Nakasone Yasuhiro pledged to Ronnie Reagan that Japan would be “America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Pacific. There are today hundreds of US bases in Japan, including Okinawa, and there is a current scandal about the placement of missile batteries all over the country, in defiance of municipal governments, e.g., Kumamoto. No doubt these are being pointed at China.
Even if the aim is to contain China, is Taiwan really needed as well as Japan? Otherwise, agree with your analysis.
If you were a Gulf Coast Monarchy, would you feel safer now because of the existence of Israel? Without Israel, I am not saying unshakeable peace would break out, too much sectarian conflict, too much to gain from hogging strategic resources, but Israel is the biggest instigator of conflict in the entire region by large measure.
Absolutely. The GCC family dictatorships are really in a pickle, it seems. They hitched their wagons to the US (which, as Mearsheimer colorfully put it, is “the gang that can’t shoot straight”), whose foreign policy has evolved into a toxic cocktail of chaos and Zionist project of mehr Lebensraum. And Israel will always be in the driver’s seat, seeking to destabilize their corner of the ME.
My understanding is that the US installed the Shah to be able to stage forward listening posts to spy on the Soviets. AfterWW2 Iran was as close as they could get with the technology of the day..
I imagine any economic factor was that we made it lucrative for the Shah.
Not really: the Pahlavi Dynasty does go back to 1925, when its founder staged a coup and set himself up first as dictator, then as the king, with British support (from British forces intervening in revolutionary Russia from Persia). The records of the first Pahlavi is, eh, complicated: he tried to modernize the country and the army while not cooperating with the British, despite their help setting him up. This, combined with super neutralist attitude during WW2, got Iran invaded by British and USSR and the first Pahlavi being replaced by his son (the one with know) as the figurehead under the occupation.
How exactly the constitutional machinery operated between 1940s and 1950s slways struck me as opaque, without a lot of good references in English. The parliament existed even as Iran was occupied (in fact elections were held even as it was being invaded!) 1950 elections were the big deal supposedly because it was “the most democratic election in Iran’s” history, but I can’t really place it context, personally. What is clear, of course, is that it sidelined the king, brought Mossadegh to power, and caused a constitutional crisis in Iranian government–as far as I can tell, due to lack of clear delineation on who held what power. So the overthrow of Mossadegh ultimately amounted to the king asserting his power with foreign support–I’m a bit wary of the way this is usually portrayed, as CIA, deposing a democratic government. Even if it does ultimately amount to the same thing, it was also true that the Iranian government institutions were a mess, Mossadegh was not a very daft politician and made many enemies, and the whole thing was, afaict, teetering precariously and was knocked down when the CIA gave it a slight push (actually, much the same was true in Chile under Allende, too–and this, I know quite a bit better–and I can still read Spanish decently).
One thing to note is that being sponsored by foreign powers does not always make one a puppet: the first Pahlavi is an obvious example–despite being installed with British help, he was ousted by British (and Soviet) invasion. The second Oahlavi, fwiw, pursued his own agenda contrary to US at times–territorial disputes with Gulf Arabs, nuclear weapons program, etc.
This should be a lesson to would be anyone interested in “color revolutions”: they only work on weak, problematic, and troubled governments. The CIA does not have magical powers–it needs powerful inside help (the Iranian king and his allies, the Chilean army, etc) and “weak enemies” (controversial leaders who were not too skilled at coalition management). In the same vein, the best counter to foreign political interference is stronger internal politics–although that may not always feasible.
Nice summary of an institutional and historical tangle. One tweak I’d toss in is that your description of Mossadegh as not very deft certainly fits the occasion of the CIA coup. The chapter on the coup in Matin-Asgari’s Axis of Empire leaves you boggled at the lost opportunities.
To trim it down, military representatives of the coup leaders showed up at Mossadegh’s house to announce his deposition as premier, but they were promptly arrested by pro-Mossadegh military units who had been tipped off by military members of the left-wing Tudeh party. A hunt began for other coup participants who had holded up in safe houses and CIA offices. Tudeh party members and members of the National Front, Mossadegh’s loose coalition, took to the streets in celebration and to further attack the remnants of the coup apparatus. But Mossadegh declined to maintain momentum and refused to declare a republic, as some supporters wished, and even wanted to send the Shah a telegram asking him if he had in fact abdicated and offering him to return to the throne. He issued an order for his demonstrating supporters to get off the streets, and army units did so with violence, arresting over 600 Tudeh supporters. The “depression and despair” that had taken hold at Langley dissipated, and the plotters regained the initiative.
Heh, that was a dreadful written comment by me (was not even sure if it even posted sunce, as NC occasionally does, the comment disappeared into the ether without a chance to edit (and I was both distracted and on my tablet.)
The lack of good (snd easy enough to find) background material in English on domestic politics of Iran under the first Pahlavi and during World War 2 and the immediate aftermath is one of more frustrating things out there. This gives the appearance of things taking place out of nowhere: the Iranian military, modernized over 1930s by the first Pahlavi, just collapses to nothingness before Anglo-Soviet invaders. Not something common in Iranian history…so how did the first Pahlavi screw up? The parliament still existed during the occupation and the second Pahlavi was installed as the king by the occupation forces. So what did they do, both wrt Iranian body politic and with each other? Then you read about the crisis with USSR over Iranian Azerbaijan, but painfully little about its effect on domestic Iranian politics, especially the role of the king. Then Mossadegh, the magical Persian suddenly appears in 1950…but where did he fit in Iranian politics and its constitutional order?
Speaking of things magically appearing out of nowhere, what is this two week ceasefire business?!?!
Thanks, good historical rundown but why was the CIA involved. What was the point if not to give the US some advantage in the cold war?
Oil. Not claiming it’s all about oil, there’s lots of other politics in the region, but for the last hundred years oil has been a filter adjusting the color of everything else.
No one outside it really cared about the region until the Brits converted the Royal Navy off coal.
Even back in the war the FDR Admin was making plans around middle eastern oil.
This war has been oh so very under-reported compared to WW2, despite having rather instantaneous contact with most everybody on the globe…
A few years ago I bought a copy of Ernie Pyle’s Brave Men for a buck, and its mostly newspaper articles from the front and a most memorable missive is This One is Captain Waskow.
https://storyoftheweek.loa.org/2011/05/one-is-captain-waskow.html
Col. Karen Kwiatkowski on Judge Nap says China told Israel if a nuke was used, Israel will cease to exist. She then wonders what China told the US and pointed out the US has no defensive military – it’s purely offensive.
If a large number of chinese merchant ships carry the missile packages, then the US could be easily devastated by a few tens of thousands of missiles – the US grid would collapse, and without electricity (and refined petroleum products) – no food and anarchy would reign in a few days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEMl9VXlpvU
Chinese Phantom Raider’s! Why not?
S&P 500 up 4.3% in past week despite Trump’s apocalyptic threats.
Plunge protection team in action? Or could their be a group of insiders with enough capital to imitate the PPT?
Yahoo headline: “Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq close slightly higher on hopes of Iran deadline extension…Markets on edge…”
https://finance.yahoo.com/
What’s “on edge” about a 4.3% gain in the past week? It sure spells manipulation to me…
From Al Jazeera, utube, ~1+ minute:
Synagogue in Tehran ‘completely destroyed’ in US-Israeli attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkQendCfBVI
A Taco is primed and ready
We shall see, I guess.
Latest is
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2041627387696443525?s=20
It is Tuesday, after all.
Yes, looks like he is negotiating with himself again. One of the messages from Pakistan actually came from his office apparently. He is going to fully disassociate one day.
The odd thing about psychological dissociation is that the sufferers find it hard to distinguish between the symptoms of depersonalization (feeling unreal in a real world) and those of derealization (feeling real in an unreal world).
Perhaps Trump is undergoing apotheosis.
assuming a two week extension during which there will be
no cease fire
a dwindling supply of US and Israeli armaments
likely ongoing attacks on the US ME coalition and their energy infrastructure
an increasing inability of Israel to shield against attacks from Iran and from within Lebanon
an accelerating impact of energy and critical material supply issues on a global basis over the next two weeks which is likely to be reflected in increased financial and commodity market volatility
how would this be remotely positive for Trump? These issues are exactly why the last three days have been completely unhinged. It simply illustrates he’s screwed.
Bravery – Iranians begin forming human chains around power plants ahead of Trump’s deadline, social media videos show
Video here – https://xcancel.com/MonitorX99800/status/2041517162284605552
Longer clip from the AP here.
Or perhaps surrounding power plants is the Persian ritual for just surrendering unconditionally? It’s all so foreign and confusing to us…..
Pakistan PM delivers US message? Check edits
https://x.com/cmshehbaz/status/2041596151108137363?s=46
I thought people on Twitter were making it up. The official account has edits, looks like supplied message.
It looks like were close to a two weeks ceasefire. If the US stops its aggression on Iran the Iranians will reciprocate.
It looks like Israel isn’t part of the Iranian ceasefire so Iran will continue targeting
BBC
Perhaps, but what kind of traffic would one expect, when there’s such a short interval?
Except some of those points are anathema to Israel; as an independent actor that routinely violates ceasefires, what is Israel to do?
I guess we’ll see.
Donald J. Trump announces US surrender/ sarcish
—–
2 week ceasefire: let’s see the details.
What does the Hormuz bit entail exactly?
They are using Iranian 10 points as a starting place.
Furious goal-post moving will ensue; hopefully a full TACO can occur.
What will Israel do?
—–
@realDonaldTrump
Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Ugh. I can sniff the bull. I just don’t know what it is exactly.
Iran wouldn’t agree to a ceasefire unless they have very good concessions.
Iran has yet to say anything and I would hope Iran doesn’t fall for any of this nonsense. The US and Israel cannot honor ceasefires.
Iran seems to have agreed to something.
[Semi-official] Tasnim News via @barrybonzer
خبرگزاری تسنیم
More detailed information about the ceasefire declared by Iran will be announced
A two-week ceasefire between Iran and the American-Zionist enemies has been established under special conditions; Trump has also announced this and said that this two-week period will provide an opportunity for a final agreement to be reached and concluded.
More detailed information will be announced from Iran in a few minutes.
@TasnimNews
—
Edit: superceded by Yakts comment directly below.
Iran won!
Lebanon included!
Let’s see how the negotiations go from here, Trump is a weasel and the Israelis are weasels.
There’s no way the US just gave up…
If that’s true. It’s over for the US empire. The worst defeat in 50 years.
Middle East Spectator posts the following statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30566#
Which, curiously, they edited, a couple of minutes after I posted this, into a brief 8-point statement of the agreed terms.
Their next post gives their own take
There is simply no way the U.S. accepted this. Too good to be true.
If they did, this is a historic and divine victory, the likes of which nobody could have imagined.
The only way we know what happened is to see what will happen in the coming days. Most likely the war will just resume and what happened today was an elaborate shitshow.
One hopes Iran will maintain Chinese & Russian ISR at combat ready levels.
No one can expect “good faith” from Trump or Netanyahu.
Here’s the edited version (same link as before–I’m sort of glad I posted the other version, I’d hate all that colorful language to be lost forever):
@ripplebrain has the same with a couple more bits at the end
Amerikanets 📉
@ripplebrain
41s
Here’s what the Iranian side is saying Trump has accepted in principle:
• Security guarantees against future attacks on Iran
• Iranian military control over the Strait of Hormuz
• Lifting of all sanctions
• Ending all Security Council resolutions against Iran
• Acceptance of Iranian uranium enrichment
• A withdrawal of all US forces from the region
• A total discontinuation of attacks against both Iran and Lebanon
• “Full compensation” to Iran for the costs of the war
• The release of all frozen Iranian financial assets abroad
• The codification of all of the above in a UN Security Council resolution
They say these conditions must be ratified in negotiations in Islamabad “with complete distrust of the American side” starting Friday, with a two-week deadline to conclude the negotiations, and that the war will only end when all the conditions are met
——-
I can’t believe Trump agreed to that. If he did, wow.
I assume the next two weeks will see a whole new fog of bullshit from both sides.
Even if the US goes rogue and violates the ceasefire, they start on a weaker foot while Iran has framed and locked in the direction of negotiations now. The US never concretely established a goal, while Iran is eagle-eyed.
Is the plan going to be Trump claims victory -> Israel breaks the ceasefire? What’s to be gained there?
Potentially a lot IF US declines to intervene when Iran hits back, leaving Israel to its own devices. The last 6 weeks left enough bases for US to abandon Israel IF something like that happens.
Then we get to see the Epstein files!
I agree it seems too good to be true. It’s just wild. But then, threats to destory iran as a civilisation were just as wild. so wth is going on in the white house?
Even if Trump agreed to this to get out of the latest corner he painted himself into, he’s not going to stay agreed to it.
Bombing “suspended” – https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/trump-suspends-iran-bombing-for-two-weeks-following-dire-threats
Fox quotes the Donald as more or less agreeing to Iran’s plan, for whatever that’s worth – https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/trump-iran-deadline-israel-hormuz-april-7
“Trump said he received a 10-point proposal from Iran, calling it a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated,” he wrote.”
Unlikely Iran is going to stop doing what it’s doing.
Past points of contention have been agreed to?
No problem about the enriched Uranium now?
We’re not going to worry about the ballistic missiles any more?
And you guys were never were going to make a nuke, we all knew that!
As for helping those Hezbollah guys, well, that’s water under the bridge now, and Bibi will play along.
While all eyes are on Iran….
From Drop Site News substack.
Israeli-Backed Militia Launches Deadly Attack on Gaza Refugee Camp Under Cover of Airstrikes
“We were shocked when [they] entered the neighborhood and began firing at people’s homes and at the children inside those homes.”
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-abu-nasira-militia-attack-maghazi-camp-gaza
I’ve expected there’s a lot of this going on that we’ll never know about.
From the Balfour declaration on Israel has really been on the bleeding edge of refusing to let a good crisis go to waste.
Iranian news agencies had reported on the 10-point plan yesterday. Not in a point-by-point detail, but in summary.
Basically:
– Iran gets sovereignty over the Strait.
– All anti-Iran sanctions cancelled.
– US withdraws from all bases in the Gulf.
– All military action against Iran AND Hezbollah AND possibly Hamas is stopped. [Not sure whether Hamas is included here.]
– Iran’s right to enrich uranium at will is confirmed.
– Obviously no concessions of any kind on the missile program.
This isn’t a complete list, but that isn’t the point. There is no way the US would ever actually agree to even half the stuff on that list, in my view, and, conversely, almost none of these items are on the Americans’ 15-point proposal. There is no room for agreement or negotiation here.
So Trump is basically trying to wind things down, whether for two weeks or longer, without addressing any of the root causes, to use Lavrov’s favorite turn of phrase. Why Iranians would agree to this, I do not know. Unless Trump declares victory and then hangs the Israelis out to dry.
So let’s see where this goes.
EDIT Just saw the Iranian official statement, which makes it seem like Trump completely capitulated to all of the 10 points I referenced above. If this is true, then we are talking about an el grande taco of the century.
Musical Interlude
Martyanov quoted Hezbollah statement of 135 destroyed Merkavas.
Stunning silence over these losses all over Europe.
While every single Russian APC was heralded for weeks.
If the accounts of the ceasefire deal are to be believed, what a shift: this morning, it was beginning to look as if Trump would leave office either via the 25th or on a stretcher; now, another possibility is opened up, that Trump could be made to leave office in disgrace for losing the war, and the empire.
I subdue my joy for those who might be freed from fear and death, and wait and see with the rest of all of you beautiful people.
Apologies if this is already posted.
The conditions of Iran’s 10-point plan that the US was forced to accept:
The United States is committed in principle to:
1. Refusal of aggression
2. Maintaining Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Recognition of enrichment
4. Cancellation of all primary sanctions
5. Cancellation of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all resolutions of the Board of Governors
8. Payment of compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. End the war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic resistance in Lebanon .
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/201344#
As our esteemed host often says: The US is agreement incapable.
At the moment all of this means nothing except:
Both sides agreed to stop shooting for a short period
Iran agreed to open Hormuz but still under its control.
I’ve not heard they really agreed to open Hormuz. It was a nebulous it will be “open” under our control.
This whole thing is off…
Israel will not like this at all, and has many ways to scuttle it.
We’ll also have to wait and see which version of the 10 point list was agreed, if any (I’ve seen a few floating around). I could see Trump denying it all tomorrow and saying the US agreed to some other fictional 10 point list in which Iran surrendered all weapons and agreed to install a US puppet government, or some such nonsense.
Still pretty stunning on the reporting to date. It’s capitulation, even though the US will do its best to spin it as victory.
If this is a ruse israel won’t complain, but if trump is serious (imo not even a little bit) then it won’t be long before attacks begin again.
Yeah, Iran says 10 points accepted, trump calls it a starting point…
so a 2 week ceasefire…in the meantime israel and US have bombed the crap out of Iran.
Deception. I did think while walking home that it was going to be a taco tuesday and the zionists get an undeserved reprieve and it can be counted on that it will be used in nefarious ways.
Of course China and Russia may be working behind the scenes to re-arm Iran and upgrade its aerial defenses over the next two weeks. And if Israel continues to attack, then all Iranian drones and missiles can be devoted to hitting them instead of Gulf State countries as well. But you can bet the bank that Trump will renege on any agreement and will seek to have the Iranian negotiating team murdered.
Two weeks enough time to install S-500?
I wondered the same myself.
Americans hate this war. No one without a dual passport gives 2 #$@^s about conceding to any of Iran’s 10 points. This war was a political disaster for Trump, and if it escalated, the financial markets would have completely been torched. Trump touched the stove and got his fingers badly burned. I really don’t think this will be repeated any time soon by the Americans. The Israelis will probably stay in tit for tat with Hezbollah and the Houthis, but America will have no role, other than sharing ISR and arming and enabling the ethnic cleansing of Lebanon, of course. Iran, for its part, will be sure to help the resistance, until everyone with a brain who pays taxes in Israel leaves for good, and Israel collapses.
sorry, I’ve been gone all afternoon to test-drive an electric car, a Kia. I like it. Then there’s this:
Honda President After Visiting Chinese Auto Supplier: ‘We Have No Chance Against This’
https://www.motor1.com/news/792130/honda-reacts-china-supplier-strength/
Now back to links:
Retired Army general says US may need ‘Nuremberg’ like trials for Trump’s ‘illegal orders’ in Iran war
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-nuremberg-trials-b2953171.html
JD Vance Learns in Real Time Trump Left Him Out of Iran Attack Plans
https://newrepublic.com/post/208724/jd-vance-donald-trump-iran-attack
Impeaching Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, for High Crimes and Misdemeanors.
https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres1155/BILLS-119hres1155ih.pdf
Republicans Call for Trump Impeachment After Wild Iran Death Threat
https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-call-for-trump-impeachment-after-wild-iran-death-threat/
Trump’s gone too far: Invoke the 25th Amendment before it’s too late
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/5818240-trump-iran-crisis-escalation/
Larson Files Articles of Impeachment, Calls for 25th Amendment as Trump Becomes More Unhinged
https://larson.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/larson-files-articles-impeachment-calls-25th-amendment-trump-becomes
Trump’s Former Allies Beg Someone to Learn the Nuke Codes to Stop Him
https://newrepublic.com/post/208714/trump-former-allies-nuclear-weapons-iran-25th-amendment
> JD Vance Learns in Real Time Trump Left Him Out of Iran Attack Plans
It is absolutely critical how well JD Vance is firewalled on this. JD tries to juke-step past Suzie Wiles to reach Trump! JD onstage with Orban (in HUNGARY! not even in this Hemisphere!) when he receives an important text he won’t read! JD tries call Trump and goes to Voicemail!
Trump in Denial: fires Army CoS April 2. Trump exit-ramp goes clusterfak: April 3. Anger: Trump infected-by-Satan tweet: 8:03 am April 5 (did he sleep?). Trump Bargaining/ Narcissistic dissociation: blowing off Easter services, drives around to see his name (Grandiosity), self-soothing golfing. This all might be enough to invoke the 25th, but if there was a nuke on that bomber, that would seal it. Speculation: offered resignation and a pardon, or a very small cell while the details are worked out.
Vance’s answers to timely questions were well-rehearsed. ‘I pray God is on our side’, indeed.
That’s four impeachment headlines, three 25th Amendments, and a Nuremberg trial. Plus a blurb upthread suggesting that China had indicated they’d respond in kind to a nuking of Iran.
There might in fact be worse things than humiliation, even for an extreme narcissist.
The prices of Crude and Brent have fallen, as of now, $15.70 and $14.65 respectively!
“Who knew?”
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
Evidently, Armageddon may have been temporarily paused. I love it when that happens.
Nima and Prof. Marandi on Dialogue Works. utube, ~52+ minutes.
Seyed M. Marandi: Iran SLAMS Trump’s Ultimatum w/ COUNTER ULTIMATUM — War Headed DECIMATING Attacks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-ZXf1Gd1-Y
Not really: the Pahlavi Dynasty does go back to 1925, when its founder staged a coup and set himself up first as dictator, then as the king, with British support (from British forces intervening in revolutionary Russia from Persia). The records of the first Pahlavi is, eh, complicated: he tried to modernize the country and the army while not cooperating with the British, despite their help setting him up. This, combined with super neutralist attitude during WW2, got Iran invaded by British and USSR and the first Pahlavi being replaced by his son (the one with know) as the figurehead under the occupation.
How exactly the constitutional machinery operated between 1940s and 1950s slways struck me as opaque, without a lot of good references in English. The parliament existed even as Iran was occupied (in fact elections were held even as it was being invaded!) 1950 elections were the big deal supposedly because it was “the most democratic election in Iran’s” history, but I can’t really place it context, personally. What is clear, of course, is that it sidelined the king, brought Mossadegh to power, and caused a constitutional crisis in Iranian government–as far as I can tell, due to lack of clear delineation on who held what power. So the overthrow of Mossadegh ultimately amounted to the king asserting his power with foreign support–I’m a bit wary of the way this is usually portrayed, as CIA, deposing a democratic government. Even if it does ultimately amount to the same thing, it was also true that the Iranian government institutions were a mess, Mossadegh was not a very daft politician and made many enemies, and the whole thing was, afaict, teetering precariously and was knocked down when the CIA gave it a slight push (actually, much the same was true in Chile under Allende, too–and this, I know quite a bit better–and I can still read Spanish decently).
One thing to note is that being sponsored by foreign powers does not always make one a puppet: the first Pahlavi is an obvious example–despite being installed with British help, he was ousted by British (and Soviet) invasion. The second Oahlavi, fwiw, pursued his own agenda contrary to US at times–territorial disputes with Gulf Arabs, nuclear weapons program, etc.
This should be a lesson to would be anyone interested in “color revolutions”: they only work on weak, problematic, and troubled governments. The CIA does not have magical powers–it needs powerful inside help (the Iranian king and his allies, the Chilean army, etc) and “weak enemies” (controversial leaders who were not too skilled at coalition management). In the same vein, the best counter to foreign political interference is stronger internal politics–although that may not always feasible.
Shoot. This is a duplicate of a reply to another comment earlier. I have no idea how thiz showed up here!
I did not have an Araghchi statement appearing on DJT’s Trump Social account on my bingo card for today.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116366072136989268
Strangest day of my lifetime, and I’m 65.
Yeah, but none of this makes sense.
According to Iran, Trump agreed to all of their key demands. This would be the end of Trump and brand him as the biggest loser in US history.
I feel like this is all to manipulate the market so his friends can make one last cash grab or something worse is in the wings.
It just doesn’t add up.
But this is on Trump’s own account on his own social media platform:
I’m sure he’ll weasel but this can’t be unseen. What could he have been confronted with that would be worse than this humiliation?
Pretty sure Trump will fire General Framework, and can the bassist as well.
Maybe that was the whole point of the “civilization ending” Truth Social post, now he can claim and spin that he scared the beejeezus out of the Iranians with his macho threats and they heroically capitulated to sanity, praise Allah, etc etc. Who knows, maybe Trump gave the Israeli’s the war they “bought” from him via the Lobby, he gave them a solid 4 weeks worth and probably never promised a forever war? He is the ultimate con-man to everyone at the end of the day…
It is fun to clown on his TACOing, but it’s his finest quality really. If it’s a stupid idea and not working, quit and spin. It’s not much but I’ll take it ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Still it is too astonishing to believe………
Maybe a little something for the Deep State that never liked him and a little something for the israelis who treated him like a puppet??
He can hold a grudge.
Unpopular as it may be, f***king up fossil fuel flow may be the best thing for Mother Earth, imo, even though I’ll be paying.
and yes, too astonishing to believe
But every cup is full…
Trump is just the front man.
There is no institutional reverse gear, so this is just a distraction.
There are enough dead Iranian leaders for those living to understand this.
Think his brand is pretty much shot already for most people. This makes him look better if true.
I doubt Trump would think so. And that is what matters most to him.
What does it mean? US has 14 days to capitulate to Iran’s 10 conditions, or hostilities resume?
At least vital materials can get through the Strait for two weeks.
I’m really glad for the de-escalation, and I hope that a durable peace results, but I find it hard to believe that DJT will agree to Iran’s terms, and we know that Iran will not agree to DJT’s terms.
Both sides to frantically replenish for the next round?
Israel can scupper the whole thing easily unless the USA does a complete 180 wrt Israel right now. Simply murdering the supreme leader should get the fight going again, just for one simple example off the top of my head.
…or thats the plan.
I think US has 14 days to rein in Israel and keep it there–at least that’d be the point of the whole thonh from Iran’s perdpective, as I see it. Whether it “really” applies to Lebanon is what I’m curious about. Apparently, it does, in theory, but Israel never honors any ceasefire…at least so far.
I’m so old I remember the Cuban missile crisis, and Kennedy’s assassination, not to mention the days of rage, but yeah, this one ranks right up there.
Araghchi:
“[POTUS] acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations…”
——————————————————
Emphasis added
They say Israel also agreed to Iran’s 10 point plan? I don’t believe that for a second.
Vatican aid convoy to southern Lebanese town forced back by bombardment
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vatican-aid-convoy-southern-lebanese-town-forced-back-by-bombardment-2026-04-07/
Marjorie Taylor Greene Demands 25th Amendment Be Invoked Against Trump
https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-demands-25th-amendment-be-invoked-against-trump-11793483
Here the “Zionist Entity” runs the risk of stablishing itself firmly, in all eyes, as the rogue genocidal state it has turned under Netanyahoo. Add to that that Bibidiot would risk global economic collapse if allowed to break ceasefire conditions. Netanyahoo may not accept this, but at some point he might be forced to do so. Someone should give him a gun and allow him to proceed with the only sensible thing he can do with a gun if you know what I mean.
I don’t believe Trump in the end will agree to the broad terms let alone the 10 terms. I can’t believe the Zionists will agree unless they will Just plan to think they can do this again in 6 months. How does bibi spin this?
The 2 weeks helps Israel and gets food and supplies into the Middle East. It opens up air travel.
The US can move some supplies but how much is there ?
It won’t make much dent in oil except what was in tankers. Unless there is much less damage to refining than we thought.
It also gets a lot of anti aircraft weapons from China and Russia into Iran.
Within 2 weeks we will see Israel or the US attack again because this was all a rouse or we will see Trump with what he has to accept either way he’s crushed. I mean it’s good for the world and the US. It’s the end of his presidency which is also good. It’s the end of his terror rain on tariffs, sanctions, wars etc.
And for Trump what victory prospects will be better in two weeks? Israel too is getting slammed.
It will be fascinating to see how Iran’s terms can be spun as preferable to the JCPOA.
Maybe US can wedge in a maximum range on Iran’s missiles — long enough to deter Israel but not enough to reach continental US.
It will give Israel two more weeks to pummel Lebanon.
Please look at the Iran National Security Council statement. That is not what Iran “agreed” to. They “agreed” only to a US capitulation
So both sides are talking past each other with Trump trying like crazy to spin it.
I have LONG said Iran would stop shooting if the US and Israel stopped shooting but would not give up control over the Strait.
And the same way the US could not compel Ukraine to go along, Israel was not party to whatever happened here. Israel will sabotage this ASAP.
Larry Johnson put up the full text. This is the key section:
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/statement-of-irans-supreme-national
Maybe Trump finally had it with Israel and decided to break with them at long last?
“Sorry, the forever war is for premium subscribers only”
Remember the old saying “Only Nixon could go to China.” Trump very well could be the only one who could break with Israel.
God willing….
More Mid East Spectator tidbits [fwiw]
1. The breakthrough in negotiations came as China promised to act as a guarantor that the U.S. would ‘accept at least some of Iran’s conditions’ mentioned in the 10-point framework during upcoming negotiations in Islamabad
As a gesture of goodwill, China vetoed a UN Security Council Resolution on the Strait of Hormuz earlier today, despite the crisis directly affecting China itself. – Sources
BP: guarantees seems like the hardest point to secure long term. Who knows what this actually means. Also “sources”
2. Ballistic missiles also struck the Habshan Gasfield, UAE
Emirati authorities have confirmed that ‘a fire has broken out’.
—
Iranian ballistic missiles once again struck Al-Jubail [BP: big petrochemicals site] Industrial City, Saudi Arabia
BP: Israel also just announced it’s air force are starting another wave of attacks on Iran. This could calm down, but still very hot at the moment. Iran also still firing at Israel.
3. Iran and Oman will charge tolls from all ships passing the Strait of Hormuz during the 2-week ceasefire – AP
This cements Iran’s de-facto control over the Strait, and enshrines a new legal framework for passage
My bet: the so called ceasefire affects US and Iran only. Israel and Iran will contibue hitting each other. IF US leaves Israel to its own devices, it may be legit (it could still be a dirty trick…a huge gamble with a yuuuuuge! bait.)
Israeli media has said it includes Israel and Lebanon.
Which means Hezbollah stands down and Israel keeps shooting?
I think it might all boil down to the Kompromat that Bibi does/doesn’t have on Trump.
If Kompromat exists, Israel f***ery can continue and Trump cannot actually reign them in.
If Kompromat doesn’t exist, Trump can reign them in.
In theory.
Whether he does, whether he can withstand the Israel lobby etc is an open question.
But Trump will not want the hot war to restart. He is the senior partner. He can threaten all kinds of things to limit Israel.
We’ll see I guess.
—-
If Israel attacks Lebanon, the axis will respond, and the hot war continues.
Since there was the brouhaha with Trump’s “reign death” a few days ago, let me remark that it’s actually “rein in”, as in pulling a horse back by the reins. Doesn’t help that rain, reign and rein are homophones.
English orthography doesn’t make sense, anyway.
Yes I know ;)
Was wondering who would spot it :)
So Trump is wordly clever rather than inept, after all?
I (respectfully) believe that you are misreading the situation. Israel fundamentally needs this ceasefire, and the government likely asked for it and only wants to pretend that the US is restraining it.
Israel basically has no more interceptors left, its functional Sa’ar 6 corvette fleet has been halved (needed to protect the Leviathan and Taamar gas rigs), its reserve force is falling apart, its high end radar (Green Pine and also the US AN/TPY-2s and FPSs, including the TPY-2 at Site 512) are almost entirely destroyed, and they are being not just defeated, but outright humiliated by Hezbollah. The “protective ring” it has built around Iran is gone–it an neither attack Iran nor provide any defense against it.
Yes, Iran has paid a very heavy price (and if I were them I would absolutely not have agreed to a ceasefire), but the still have thousands of missiles that can now essentially target any Israeli site more or less unopposed. Israel is not stupid– can see the writing on the wall here.
And so Israel and the US will now spend their times trying to collude with other countries (Azerbaijan? Pakistan??) for the next round (likely in time for Bibi’s reelection campaign). Thankfully, there will be a new Secretary of War soon, at least
As an aside, while I am mor or less mumbling to myself in public anyway, there were no doubt many other “undeclared” conditions required to make this work (For example, Trump called Putin in a panic awhile ago for help, and soon thereafter Russia had no qualms about shipping oil to Cuba).
I am wondering if Iran added recognition of a Palestine as a condition…we will see soon, I guess.
Supporting evidence?
NEW: Israel is critically low on interceptors; a David Sling interceptor missile from the 2026 stockpile, produced only months ago, was seen being used
https://t.me/zoka200/49805#
I agree that Israel is currently very weak and in a precarious position now, and that is a very relevant factor is how this is playing out. It’s possible it could resume for the election campaign but I think it is too soon now to give them enough time to meaningfully recover (election is in September or October I believe).
To some of Ben’s comments above, I think the ceasefire in Lebanon is definitely going to be something to watch. Will Lebanon be allowed to resettle south of the Litani?
I think that is where thongs will fall apart. Unless Israel retreats to the border, not just with Lebanon, but also Syria (well, at least to the pre-al Golani border), I don’t think the ceasefire holding in Lebanon. Then the question os whether Iran will (again, some might say) leave Hizb’ullah out to dry.
From the Iranian perspective, a reasonable ceasefire after inflicting salutary, but not quite completely humiliating, defeat on US/Israel is a good thong provided that their adversaries learned the boundaries. However, as an insurance for the future, they would not want to short change their allies especially goven the unpredictable nature not only of Israel, but also of their other neighbors (eg the Gulfies).
Israeli PM Office now saying ceasefire doesn’t include Lebanon which is in disagreement with what Pakistanis and Iranians announced.
Didn’t take them long to start their bullshit.
I am beginning to think that maybe Israel actually is suicidal.
It should be very clear that the US is not about to re-enter after abasing itself just so that Israel can keep bombing the North.
If I were Iran, my response would be that in that case, the ceasefire doesn’t include Israel, either and just escalate until Netanyahu appears on TV (or better yet, in front of a public crowd) and reads aloud every single condition, along with stating his assent to those conditions. Maybe also demand that he does it while wearing a diaper.
Where thongs fall apart… the mind reels!
hey, it’s not my fault that o is next to i (and I have skippery fingers) and the textbox is hard to read on my tablet.
:p
This is one matter they might not want people getting curious about, as there was quite a bit of protest against neutron bombs back in the anti-nuke days. It’s probably a little act, or someone over yonder blabs too much…like Trump’s does over here? I lean toward the little act theory.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CFI-PBJvwbw
“…China promised to act as guarantor that the US would accept at least some of Iran’s conditions”!
That’s pretty ballsy – and *very* admirable – for China to say. I guess “accepting” conditions isn’t the same as actually abiding by them, so their guarantee doesn’t deal with the “agreement incapable” loophole. Still, it implies that China is willing to use their Big Stick (made of Rare Earth metals) to quietly save a few million Iranians.
Here is what the Times of Israel has to say:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/irans-10-point-plan-for-ending-war-calls-for-acceptance-of-uranium-enrichment-removing-all-us-sanctions/
“Tehran says its 10-point plan for securing an end to the war with the United States would require Washington to accept its uranium enrichment program and the lifting of all sanctions.
Claiming victory, the Islamic Republic says in a statement released alongside a list of the 10 points published by state media, that the plan would require “continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of enrichment, lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions.” “
Iran “agreed” only to US capitulation. From the statement by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/statement-of-irans-supreme-national?utm_source
Right now, a lot of players (knowingly or not) seem to be interpreting what just happened in whichever direction they find convenient. For example, Simplicius’ latest post (https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/from-dire-straits-to-done-deal-triumphant) has the Israelis saying contradictory things about 1) if it applies to them 2) whether Lebanon is included or not, etc (of course, these are exactly what the folks here have pointed out–and it may take some time before we find out what they really agreed to, if we ever do.)
The problem is that Iran holds the Hormuz and they have no reason to give it up and US and Israel are short of resources and unable to continue the fight…for now (key). Iran has no good reason to let Trump save face, except in return for a heavy price, which can really be only one thing, I think: credibly throwing Israel under the bus, “for good.” (I don’t think Iran needs US to let the Gulfies go–they are already toast, regardless of what we do.) Can this be done? Given how toxic Israel is with the US public now, I wonder if Trump just might fo it. Improbable, no, next to impossible, but Trump has a way of doing totally unexpected things…including tonight.
“Can this be done? Given how toxic Israel is with the US public now, I wonder if Trump just might fo it”
Well, the question is what can the US really do anyway? They have no more radar, few interceptors, they have run down their JASSM inventory, have no more surrounding bases, and to rebuild any of this is going to take a decade. Moreover, their crazy plan to exfiltrate the enriched Uranium was clearly a dismal failure, and the public cannot handle the pain that Iran can inflict on the economy. Maybe they can assassinate (or help Israel assassinate) a few more people, but I think it is pretty clear that that’s not going to help.
And BTW, holding Hormuz is a fantastic card (I really hope that money doesn’t turn them into another stupid GCC-like economy), but it’s far from the only card that Iran holds. If nothing else, Iran can simply destroy every oil and gas producer in the region **whether or not it controls the Strait**. And if it doesn’t want to and if it believes that its survival is on the line, it can very clearly obliterate Israel with conventional weapons if it so chooses.
And yeah, on top of that, I think it is pretty safe to say that just about any Western (not only US) politician that runs on the idea of “we gotta help Israel” is pretty well going to get its ass handed to him/her.
Two side comments:
1. Iran may have actually been the first country to decisively “win a war” (and get a lopsided agreement) without putting boots on the ground.
2. What the hell is the US going to do with defense budgets going forward? A $1.5T budget is a complete nonstarter, but it really needs to re-arm, and given the quality of Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and likely NKorean missiles, it probably feels that it needs to develop a missile shield, which is going to be obscenely expensive.
It’ll be interesting to watch the net emigration from Israel over the next 12-24 months.
Peace prizes all around, on me!
Channeling my inner Wukchumni: Trumpoudini!
Should the ceasefire hold, and the U.S. accept something like the conditions being discussed, there will be wide ranging political impacts. Some possibilities: Iran emerges as something near a regional hegemon, with a diminished and chastised Israel hampered by the internal turmoil which would follow such a defeat. Netanyahu would be done. The Gulf tyrannies would all be at risk, from Jordan and Saudi Arabia to Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain; they’d be forced to work out some arrangement with Iran. Trump could be tossed for losing the empire; the Dems could sweep into office with either an antiwar voice attuned to much of the country, or, alternately, a hawkish promise to perform more competent imperialism. With Israel diminished, there would be a material basis for the re-examination of that relationship.
Those are some speculations about the bourgeois chessboard; what will this mean for working people around the world? Probably a harder squeeze due to shortages and supply shocks. Potentially for some, a new boss, same as the old boss. At least there’d be less explosions and funerals. Here in the U.S., we can remember that countries which lose wars in humiliating fashion sometimes experience regime change. A man can dream.
In addition to Israel scuttling or not honoring the putative agreement, be on guard for neocon SPLODEY heads tomorrow.
If little miss Lindsay is quiet, that means something isn’t right. Maybe an unspoken side deal to breach the agreement in two weeks and resume the bombing. Reload and come back with more weapons.
On the other hand, if the brain matter from the likes of Graham and Mitch McConnell flies, then we know a big deal has happened.
Graham at least is little more than an Israeli cats paw. He flies frequently to Tel Aviv to get instructions.
Honestly what other ending can this have? Didn’t Trump already drop the Iranian oil sanctions to keep supply up and prices down?
My feeling is that even if we get a few ‘splodey heads, Trump has lost a lot of the GOP with his lunatic fringe postings and genocidal musings. Even the Senator from Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, who is pretty far to the right and not in a Pat Buchanan sort of way, said that he didn’t want to see Iranian civilian infrastructure hit.
Plus, McConnell is a lame duck with a limited shelf life. Ted Cruz could make a stink, and I am sure there will be the usual moonbats like Laura Loomer who will scream bloody murder. They’re already doing it on X:
https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/2041685704472735894
But overall, I tend to agree that this time, the neocons really effed up. They goaded Taco into a war he couldn’t win, and now all they can do is sulk and go into the weeds to plot their next round of genocidal evil. With the full support of the Zionist entity, of course.
The Guardian quoted Lindsay Graham as saying “We must remember that the strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran after the start of the war, destroying freedom of navigation. Going forward, it is imperative Iran is not rewarded for this hostile act against the world.”
Your focus on the reactions of neoconservatives is wise, but, just for a second, take in the absurdity: Iranian hostility, after they were attacked.
Hilariously, Graham wants DJT to allow Congress to be involved in the decision to make peace.
Get a load of this a55hole
Trump confidant Mark Levin is currently on air with a shaking voice crashing out over the ceasefire with Iran:
https://t.me/kalibrated/30007#
SPLODEY head sighting!
National weather service spotters report an exploding head from an adult male approximate age 60-75 years of age.
Take immediate shelter, hazards due to flying cerebellum chunks and skull shards imminent!
Location: Moonbat city, near Interstate 25 and Batshit-crazy Boulevard.
Scanners!
Given that the White House is now known as Griftopia, scammers!
Trump has clearly been wanting out of this from day two. When the Iranian public didn’t rise up and the Iranian government didn’t collapse it was game over. Those were the only routes to victory.
I’ve read that Israeli public support for the war has also been dropping somewhat. They have been harder hit of late.
I saw a report that Iran is now stating there is no agreement for a ceasefire as this is the same trick Trump has tried before. The claim is they were just “being polite”.
Not sure if this is valid or not, I’ve only seen one source but no validation yet. I also can’t find the post again so maybe it was BS.
But there is still active fighting going on, so no ceasefire yet.
What I wonder is, assuming the ceasefire holds (yuuuge?!?! IF), what this does to Dems’ campaign. As it is, pretending that foreign policy does not exist as an issue is probably a fairly safe winning strategy. If the war was still on, running on a peace platform would have been a winner…although 2/3 or more of the Dem pols would have been allergic to the idea. I honestly expect that they will be seriously tempted and, indeed, just might run as “better warmongers,” which, let’s be honest, fits at least 2/3 of their nature closely. That might just be a way for Trump to snatch a sort of victory from jaws of a defeat.
Peace in the middle east, eh? OK, so where’s Jesus? He’s supposed to arrive any minute, right?
Pete Kegbreath has given up now? Bibi goes to trial for getting the country bombed?
Did the military tell Trump, “We won’t do it.”?
I don’t buy it. It’s a trap – don’t fall for it, Iran. Do not attend the “face-to-face negotiations”.
Iran ceasefire fails to quash Dem calls for Trump’s removal
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/08/trump-impeachment-25th-amendment-iran-democrats
Donald Trump launches investigation into CNN over Iran ceasefire
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-launches-investigation-into-cnn-over-iran-ceasefire-11796760
Iran “agreed” only to a US capitulation. They still control the Strait. So the economic damage continues
I have long said Iran would stop shooting if the US and Israel stopped shooting but would not give up the Strait. This is where we are AT BEST.
The US also did whatever it thinks it did over Israel’s head. We could not even get the bigger vassal of Ukraine to fall into line.
Larry Johnson posted the full Iran Supreme National Council statement. Key section:
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/statement-of-irans-supreme-national?utm_source
A trap. Against Iran or against Israel? So far i see Netanyahoo more trapped than anyone else. We will see.
According to this, only 15 ships a day will leave the Strait until the frozen assets are released to Iran. Let’s see how many ships leave the Strait tomorrow, everything else seems like noise:
https://xcancel.com/gbrew24/status/2041695462902641053
Looking at DJT’s 4/7 6:32PM post, with its mention of “Almost all the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran”, I wonder if the US negotiating position will be a demand that Iran re-agree to the terms that were under discussion (and Iran had agreed to) just before the 2/28 attack. If I understand what I have read, those were more restrictive than JCPOA was. I think it’s significantly incompatible with the current “10-point” conditions Iran has set forth.
I got a horse here, and it’s the best horse, don’t pay any attention to that sort of curvy spine it actually is superior, the most superior configuration of spinal rankings, and those missing/clumped teeth well that just means this beast is from the best stock. Better than the best. Royalty.
Trading backwards just like the ukies. Yes, there was a better deal on the table, too bad you didn’t take the win.
Unfortunately for myself and my ilk prices are going to the moon, along with the djia.
Somebody needs to be blamed. Hegseth obviously. I’m beginning to wonder if the Israelis can be thrown under the bus as well.
And if it means anything or is just kayfabe.
Maybe throw Bibi under the bus and then pretend his future replacement is a new sane Israeli.
—–
@AnnCoulter [of all people lol]
4h
Every single Trump advisor is now – off the record – telling the @nytimes they were opposed Netanyahu’s argument for the Iran war.
THAT’S how well the war is going.
Ratcliffe: “Farcical.”
Rubio: “It’s bullshit”
Caine: “Standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell.”
Wiles: against “being dragged into another war in the Middle East.”
Cheung: “How would they explain away eight months of insisting that Iranian nuclear facilities had been totally obliterated?”
The NYT article she’s referencing.
Let the blame game begin!
It’s a very Vance friendly piece.
World leaders should start congratulating Trump for this agreement and say they are sure a permanent agreement positive for the world is expected. Unfortunately, most idiots, particularly in Europe, are probably incapable of doing so. Sugar-coat the bitter pill as much as possible and make him feel the great statesman he believes to be.
Just “hangin’ around”!!!
This post is truly a wonder :)
——
@realDonaldTrump
A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
——
“That’s not mash potato, it’s a crown”
Big money will be made? Sure – by Iran and Oman. And how is the US going to help with the traffic buildup/ By charging a fee like he suggested the other day? And I assume that by “hanging around” he means that he will be rebuilding those wrecked US bases. Typical Trump. Sets the Middle East on fire and then say there will be a Golden Age now. Idjut.
Someone said above that the ultimatum was only a tool to allow Trump write this new post without loosing face. It looks right. It also looks like a trap for Israel. I am crossing fingers with all the strength I can gather.
So will the Strait of Hormuz be open for two weeks?
From Larry Johnson:
“Key demands [from Iran] include: controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination … According to Iranian officials, Pakistan has conveyed that the U.S. has accepted these principles as a basis for negotiations despite its public posture. Based on this, Iran agreed to a two-week negotiation period in Islamabad.”
But will commercial ships with enemy connections (ownership, destination, etc) be passing through? Won’t that depend on insurance cost and availability, and shipowners’ confidence, and how much are they likely to change in two weeks?
To me this looks like Iran snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Just when the imperial forces were running out of ordnance and taking heavy losses, they settle for some promises that will be reneged as soon as they feel they are ready for war again.
Iran still controls the Strait, and it too can replenish its weapons and reorganise its defences. I guess it takes a lot less time to build Iranian drones than enemy Tomahawks and wotnot. And what of the rumoured Russian S-500s?
What more could they achieve at this point?
They have established punity towards the aggressors.
Short of wiping out israel completely, they are always going to have problems.
They are on much better terms than they had before the witkoff/kushner deceptions.
trump could have had a great, bestest ever deal then, but his blackmailers effed it all up.
Negotiating with bombs only works if the other side doesn’t have enough.
ISR has missed its window, I would not imagine Iran will accept its definition of a ceasefire for one moment.
All this has come at an enormous cost, but they have certainly won this battle.
Just as a thought exercise:
1. Iran could have hit Israel’s key economic points much more strongly. Iran is going to take a long time to rebuild its steel, etc. If it actually hit the intel fab plants and the NVIDIA supercomputer (“Israel-1), basically no country would ever put multibillion dollar h-i-tech infrastructure inthat country again until Israel made a very genuine peace that ensured that these places would never get attacked again. I could have also cut the fiber optic cables exiting the country.
2. Iran could have struck Leviathan and Tamar oil fields, especially after Israel struck Iran’s fields/oil processing (and the last time it did so, it clearly did so after knowing that Trump was in the final stages of an agreement, so it wasn’t to deter or even change the terms). Remember, two of its key Sa’ar 6 corvettes are basically out of commission–the remaining two and the Sa’ar 5s would not have been sufficient to effectively protect those fields.
3. Iran could have struck Soreq (hard), Orot Rabin power station, etc
4. Just to really prove a point, it could have struck Israel’s universities just to make it crystal clear that Israel in the future cannot depend on the Iranians being “less asshole-ish” in their targeting. I don’t think I would have done this one, but Israel’s targeting of schools, universities, hospitals, etc is exceptionally petty and obnoxious, and it is clear that it will continue to target such places if it believes it gets impunity to do so (on the flip side, you might wonder if this is a good use of limited JASSMs, but whatever)
5. Now that Israel’s interceptors are heavily depleted and the high end radar are out, it could have chosen to more or less strike anything it chose (Site 512, the Pit, Palmachim Airbase, Mount Meron, Tel Nof in retaliation for the Israeils trying to remove Iran’s nuclear material, etc). It could have also used a bunch of heavy missiles to target the high end bunkers housing the Oron (top priority), Eitan, and Shavit planes. I am not sure why it didn’t already hit Ein Shemer, which is the only remaining functional Gree Pine radar (maybe I am wrong on that)
Maybe these will happen next round, if Israel can convince another country to help it out again. As it is, I don’t think Iran even revealed any new tech missiles (ie, any missile designs that it has fabricated over the past 10-15 years), but I could be wrong on that.
Read the agreement carefully.
Larry Johnson has posted on his substack that there is no ceasefire.
Yves has also mentioned this a couple of times upthread (at least).
They have not given up their position.
The Telegraph’s email newsletter is pretty blunt:
Although Tehran has agreed to reopen the strait, the agreement does little to address the reasons why the US went to war in the first place.
Crucially, Iran is still thought to retain its enriched uranium, and has not ruled out producing any more.
Trump started bombing Tehran seemingly with the intention of stopping the world being held hostage by a nuclear-armed “terrorist state”. However, it seems to be in the same position after almost six weeks of war.
Peace talks are going ahead on Friday, but the regime appears to have been left with a stronger hand than it had in the past.
Now it knows it can push up oil prices by choking off the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. If it chooses, it can tighten the screws on the US president again.
https://m4.emails.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/m.jsp?c=%40V2wdDpC6Gnf8wYy77s%2BZG9neeRHCX17h3cLtX6OttmArIM8Ij9psJdB0RNee9pwih0dwKZwFvMsnTu%2FNIya5Tw%3D%3D
I’ve seen nothing which supports their view that the strait is open.
Ships that Iran agrees can pass, may pass for a fee.
It’s not open.
I expect Trump will soon post that it’s OPEN!!!!!!!, conveniently ignoring the fact that it was far more open a few weeks ago, and it’s now barely any more open than it was a few days ago. It remains to be seen how ‘open’ insurers and shipowners think it is.
Everyone should encourage him to accept this win bigly.
He rarely has more than a nodding acquaintance with facts on the ground anyway.
Leave the senile monster to comfort himself with some grifting at home as he whiles away his lamedency.
Yes. Exactly that. Trump won! Trump is a great statesman! Merits peace Nobel prize etc. In as long as peace is kept of course.
Good luck getting Bibi to play along.
Will indeed your “Bibi” want to be the one who, apart from genocidal, ruined the world economy including Israel’s?
Whatever his (many) flaws and follies, I give Trump props for at least getting out now instead of waiting an extra few weeks/months/years.
If Biden did the same, Ukraine and Europe would be in much better shape
Trump is under much higher pressure Biden was at any time. Where the merit resides?
True–upon reconsideration, I guess I am just glad that he wasn’t as self-destructive as I thought he would be (at least not yet, as doug noted)
May not be ‘out’. Probably better to wait and see, given the priors.
JMO, but it’s actually very difficult to get back in militarily. The bases and equipment have gone up in smoke, the entire endeavor is insanely unpopular among the electorate and the military, and Iran has a very strong hand to play.
Maybe you could argue that the US could try an Intelligence operation, but I think most of those assets have been rolled up, and in any case, I am not even sure what an Intelligence operation could hope to achieve.
So I think normalization between the nations is more likely to occur than a redux of this fiasco (and I put very low odds on both, just to be clear) But I don’t have a crystal ball or even a good track record in my predictions, so my views don’t really mean much