Iran War: Peak Chaos as Trump Announces “Humanitarian” Convoy to Enter Strait to Free Trapped Ships, Soon Walked Back by Officialdom; Negotiations Reported as Collapsing as Iran Toughens Position; UAE Enters War

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1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 5:54 am

   I would imagine that the insurance companies are getting on the horn with those ship’s captains telling them that if they even think about taking part in Trump’s crazy scheme, that not only would the insurance policies of their ships be cancelled but that those captains themselves would be totally uninsurable in the shipping industry forever. My own thought is that Trump wants ships trying to get out and when they are hit or sunk by the Iranians, US aircraft nearby will be able to attack the sources of those attacks. And that is why the US will be using 100 aircraft. Tough luck if you are on one of those ships however.
   1. ilsm May 4, 2026 at 8:53 am

      US Navy cannot blunt Houthi shore facilities….. What might they do to IRGC who have had years to dig in!
   2. JP May 4, 2026 at 10:43 am

      My first thought was Trump was going to use the ships as human shields.
2. amfortas May 4, 2026 at 6:59 am

   the medhurst thing is a lot to chew on.
   on the one hand, it seems obvious…and i remember the cheney meetings.
   on the other, though…how is the us gonna build all these ships?
   and how are we gonna ramp up industrial capacity?
   both of those things have been a wash forever…has something changed?
   and i also found myself thinking throughout about the shallowness of the permian.
   how long can the frackers keep going?
   and all that aside, are china and russia gonna just sit there and let all this happen?
   all in all, looks like a desperate strategy, and one that relies on a bunch of assumptions.
   1. pjay May 4, 2026 at 9:40 am

      Yes. I’m very glad Yves brings Medhurst into the discussion, because I think his points on geopolitical strategy and economic interest are important in helping us understand the bigger picture behind what appears to be our chaotic actions across the globe. Dominance of energy sources and strategic choke points has always been central to US strategy. For example, it frustrates me to no end to hear people discuss Ukraine as if it were an embarrassing “defeat” of the US/NATO. It was not. The primary purpose of provoking this “unprovoked” conflict was to sever the growing economic ties between Russia and Europe. *Mission accomplished!* I think Medhurst’s discussion focuses our attention on many key elements motivating US actions that are are often overshadowed by discussions of local political conflicts.

      But as Yves says, even if this is part of a larger global strategy, that doesn’t mean this overall plan will work. There are a lot of questions that Medhurst’s analysis leaves unanswered and you raise a lot of good ones here. I can think of others. How long are our “allies” who are getting screwed by this global blockade going to keep licking our boots? This includes Europe, of course, but also the Gulf monarchies. Sure the latter can transfer capital to the US and “invest” in this new hegemonic system. But what about their own physical energy assets? Are they willing to have these either dominated by US dictates or else kept out of global circulation? Further, Medhurst’s model of US dominance depends on massive naval power. As you point out Amfortas, how are we going to build all these ships? But further, dependence on *ships* – both to transport oil or LNG and to “blockade” potential challenges – presents a tremendous vulnerability given today’s military technology. Lumbering tankers and massive carriers are big, fat targets for missiles, or submarines. Extending another of your questions, is the rest of the world – China and Russia certainly, but also a growing number of nations whose interests could be harmed by such a system – just going to sit back and let this happen?

      Again, I welcome Medhurst’s argument because I think he provides some important pieces of the puzzle that is the apparently chaotic US foreign policy. But just as useful are the questions you raise which he leaves unanswered.
      1. amfortas May 4, 2026 at 10:06 am

         aye. an anecdote re: ships: friend of mines dad was, long ago(90’s) some kind of executive/engineer guy at newport news shipyards.
         i only met him once, but my buddy talked about him often. he said that his dad..this is in 2002, or so…would go on and on about how we couldnt do it any more…brain drain, offshoring, environmental regs, and the market incentives evaporating…lotsa things like that(before i had undertaken to study economics). tl;dr: us domestic shipbuilding capcity was all but dead.
         i havent looked deeply into this…but i think about that guy whenever the us navy has some blunder.
         and speaking of incentives,lol…hudson is forever going on and on about the lack of public utility being one of the main obstacles to rebuilding domestic industry…is there a new new deal in the works? and we are always talking about usa boutique weapons and platforms…made for profit, not purpose.
         is there a change in that incentive structure afoot? if so, ive seen no indication.

         usa bigwigs have spent 50+ years sending productive plant overseas…to china’s ultimate benefit…china’s betrayal was not remaining a peasant society.
         how do you reverse course on a timescale that matters? people like my grandad who actually knew how to build things like factories are in woefully short supply. do we import chinese engineers?
         so many questions like this…and the name Tainter keeps bubbling up in my mind as im ruminating while trying to get things done(out of pain meds for a week).
         1. amfortas May 4, 2026 at 4:33 pm

            this here pairs well with the medhurst thing, like espresso after a heavy meal.
            https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/the-fragmentationist-grand-strategy-947

            i find Nel to provide a better narrative framework for whats goin on in the world.
      2. chuck roast May 4, 2026 at 7:31 pm

         Nicely done, I’d say. He cuts to the quick…it’s attempted total corporate dominance of the world political economy, not simply US dominance. Can’t go wrong with a materialist analysis. Give me a better one. Slam away, but I think he is up to the task.

         It reminds me of the Vershinin analysis of western armament production early in the Yukie war. Four months in he hit with The Return Of Industrial Warfare. He was very tuned in, and his views are with us still…only more so. Some conflict writings define the era. If we start calling this chaos The Energy Wars then I’ll buy the book.
   2. Luis Aldamiz May 4, 2026 at 11:05 am

      What ships? What industrial capacity? Uncle Sam is not fighting for a buoyant economy but for mafioso monopoly. As some former President of Spain used to say: “the worse for all, the better for me”. The whole point is that only US oil and gas (or otherwise produced in the Atlantic basin under US supervision: Venezuela, Mexico, Canada, North Sea, Angola, Nigeria, Gabon…) is avaliable in the market, preferably at high prices that help North American costly production (tar sands, fracking) to remain competitive.

      If ships are needed, Japan, Korea and Europe can build them but what matters for Wall Street is not delivering oil and gas but monopolizing the whole global market. Russia is for the time being allowed some leeway but will be besieged by the “coalition of the willing” soon. The Petrogas Dollar that Medhurst discusses is very real and totally a continuation of the old Petrodollar by different means.
      1. thoughtfulperson May 4, 2026 at 2:40 pm

         Perhaps the “ships built in the u.s.” is a bit of a red herring to appease the maga base (possibly including Trump – I doubt he came up with this plan on his own) Ships could be stolen no? Or purchased from Japan and Korea?
      2. TomDority May 4, 2026 at 4:19 pm

         Maybe all the investment in AI is not so much about Intelligence but more about asset grabs and who makes the rules.
         If the trillions invested can’t make buck and has so many power consumption problems…why the push?
         Moore’s Law says — that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years, with minimal increase in cost. Can Moore’s law be applied to AI and, if so, it would mean energy input should decrease with advances in both chip design and AI advances and by the time these data centers are completed they will be incapable of a return on investment….of course it will be pushed as a national security concern…a cold war but, for sure it ain’t about efficiency or any good.
         I’m just speculating, but the only way to make these huge military expenditures and debt contracts and AI investments pay-off is to; buy/own the platform assets (purchase as much as possible on fixed or free rate and have currency devaluation or inflation pay it down for you) that are aimed at controlling the entire global supply chain and financial infrastructure. If you have the supply chain and financial infrastructure in hand…..you will not need human empowered governments or need of protectionist boundaries…. why, you could just impose upon the consumer/citizen to only buy this or that from this or that source, to use energy for this purpose and not that, to buy seed from this source and not that, to rent your equipment and not own, or subscribe to one political view and not another. To do business only according to the way prescribed buy the owners of the financial infrastructure and with those so designated – this goes on ad infinitum or more cheeky advertisement infinitum.
         Just speculating – but that appears to be the only way to make bank. Just who will be in control… the superintelligent AI or humans who, by the way, are the ones defining intelligence and, from what I can tell …have not been operating in any intelligent fashion for quite a time…. of course that is just my loony opinion on all the kerfuffle going on for 5,000 years or maybe longer.
         1. converger May 4, 2026 at 6:55 pm

            The US mania for proprietary LLM data centers is all about a handful of tech companies globally dominating the Next Big Thing for generations to come.

            The two big questions on the table are whether the delirious data centers buildout that’s currently underway will actually pan out (probably not, because there isn’t enough money or electricity to pull it off), and whether proprietary LLM artificial general intelligence is actually the superior AI choice (I suspect that cheap, open source, purpose-oriented, good enough AI will prove to be far and away more useful for all but surveillance/military and a handful of complex scientific research applications).
            1. ilsm May 4, 2026 at 7:24 pm

               OpenAI and Anthropic are keeping cash to cover “selling” AI bc their data centers capex is not paying due to delays, etc.

               They are going to need to charge customers based on actual cost.

               Then the backlash erupts.

               There is no one in AI covering capex and current operations.

               Having $20 B in Saar revenue is not exploding when annually >$100B in annual capex is funded with debt or donations from the real company.

               When does NVIDS lose customers who fund purchases with debt that won’t be repaid L
   3. LifelongLib May 4, 2026 at 2:51 pm

      I’m in no position to argue with someone like Medhurst, but remain baffled by what everybody thinks they’re going to get out of this mess. Oil and many other substances are traded internationally. Everybody involved is already making big money no matter who’s sitting on top of the patch, where the pipelines are the stuff flows through, what flags are on the ships that carry it. It seems almost irrelevant who “owns” which part of the process. They’re all raking it in. Why go to all the trouble?
      1. Yalt May 4, 2026 at 6:05 pm

         It’s not ownership or even profit, it’s control. Being able to force other people, even whole nations, to do your bidding because you have your thumb and forefinger on their IV.
   4. Paul Dessau May 4, 2026 at 3:49 pm

      A good discussion of the Medhurst thesis has been published on the Propaganda & Co. YouTube channel, exploring the contradictions of this way of seeking “energy dominance” – e.g. reducing revenues in the GCC countries that were already earmarked to fund investments in the A.I. bubble in the U.S., or impoverishing the European “allies” at a time when they are tasked with funding the proxy war in Ukraine and ramping up their military spending to prepare for a war with Russia.

      The video is called “The U.S. has a plan… but it might destroy the system it controls”

      I’ve discovered this channel only recently because of its coverage of the Iran war – Ahmad has spent about 11 days in Iran during the war, together with Dimitri Lascaris (of Reason2Resist) and Tim Anderson, and his and Dimitri’s reports complement each other nicely.
      1. Nusper May 5, 2026 at 10:22 am

         All the european “allies” will ever need are drones and that’s the one thing they can produce cheaply and at scale.

         Europe doesn’t ever have to actually defeat Russia, much less in a largescale, conventional war, for the plan to work splendily.
3. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 7:37 am

   Aww, crap. Not fully confirmed but Iranian media are claiming that a US warship was hit with two missiles after ignoring orders to turn back. The US is denying this happened so I guess we will have to see what develops and if there is any confirmation-

   https://7news.com.au/news/two-missiles-reportedly-hit-us-warship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz-c-22234181
   1. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 8:11 am

      And
      https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/uae-says-iran-attacked-empty-oil-tanker-with-drones-as-it-attempted-to-cross-strait-of-hormuz-no-injuries/
   2. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 8:54 am

      And
      https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/05/04/us-says-two-american-flagged-merchant-vessels-have-transited-the-strait-of-hormuz/
   3. Yalt May 4, 2026 at 8:55 am

      Reuters is reporting this was the USS Canberra (LCS-30). They say the two missiles were “fired as a warning.” Autotranslate of the Iranian report I saw was “targeted,” not “hit.”
      1. ISL May 4, 2026 at 10:15 am

         Judge Nap is reporting (with A Crooke) that eye witnesses report that one was hit (with Mohamood Od showing video). The NAvy denial is thus good, as it prevents giving Trump a causus belli (as if Trump requires logic (other then grift) to underpin its actions.
   4. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 9:46 am

      Also mentioned in the first couple minutes of Nima’s podcast with Jacques Baud today – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GNFo2d4c2w

      Initial claims there are that Iran fired on a oil tanker and warned off a US destroyer trying to enter the strait.
4. ChrisFromGA May 4, 2026 at 7:50 am

   If this were an attempt to manipulate “muckets”, it failed:

   Dow/Nasdaq futures down premarket

   Crude oil up 3%

   We’re gonna need bigger lies …
   1. Samuel Conner May 4, 2026 at 8:00 am

      > We’re gonna need bigger lies …

      or truer ones
      1. ambrit May 4, 2026 at 8:04 am

         To rephrase the old saying: “When you can fake reality, you have it made.”
      2. ChrisFromGA May 4, 2026 at 12:42 pm

         True Lies… the name of an Arnold Schwarzenegger action film in the 90’s, IIRC.

         The market is having one of those moments when reality asserts itself, even if briefly. Ten-year yield now 4.46%, and the 30-year bond is at 5.03%.

         There goes the dream of refinancing that mortgage, taking cash out, and paying for the trip to Vegas. Guido is knocking on the door in his patent-leather shoes and gold chains, and he insists that Uncle Sam pay up.
5. TimH May 4, 2026 at 8:09 am

   he will send a convoy into the Strat of Hormuz

   As my guitar gently weeps?
   1. Bryan May 4, 2026 at 12:10 pm

      While
   2. Expat2uruguay May 4, 2026 at 12:47 pm

      Fantástico
6. DJG, Reality Czar May 4, 2026 at 8:21 am

   Humanitarian crisis? Hmmm. I can think of a humanitarian crisis. Hint: Palestine and now Lebanon.

   Yet this weekend, the brave Israelis and Greeks as accomplices roughed up the Global Sumud Flotilla. Take a look at the map in Medhurst’s tweet. Pipeline? Israel-Cyprus-Crete-Greece. What a coinkydink.

   Meanwhile: “The idea of the escort was so clearly nonsensical (we don’t have enough ships even to run a proper blockade and were unable to subdue the Houthis) that I thought this was at best a lame PR stunt, in that the humanitarian crisis is real even if the Trump scheme is destined to fail.”

   The current meme is “Every accusation is self-incrimination.” The crisis for the seafarers in the Persian Gulf could have been resolved by now. Sure, the Iranians are acting tough, but it isn’t as if the U.S. of A. and Israel are worried about the Indian crews and the 80 percent ??? of the populace of the UAE who aren’t citizens and aren’t even Arabs.

   This is brilliant and is sure to frost some cookies in D.C.landia: “4. Regional security will be discussed regionally, that is, without direct U.S. involvement.” From Ahmadian. It is indeed the correct solution, but imperialists have to maintain the Anglo-American empire…

   Finally, for brilliance, this insight, from Pape: “Because great powers rarely accept total loss when high-risk options remain.” Yep: See the “inevitable” war with China.

   In short, we the peeps are dealing with a whole bunch of Foghorn Leghorns and Foghorn Galline who aren’t going to get us all killed. And they don’t give a damn.
   1. DJG, Reality Czar May 4, 2026 at 8:24 am

      Let me fix something: I am *not* let the elites off the hook. Typo alert!

      In short, we the peeps are dealing with a whole bunch of Foghorn Leghorns and Foghorn Galline who are going to get us all killed. And they don’t give a damn.
      1. .Tom May 4, 2026 at 2:50 pm

         That is correct, DJG.

         So … How then to progress from critical understanding to consequential moral action?

         Let’s take into account that for most USians, being identifiable in active dissent/protest risks social and/or criminal punishment including loss of education and employment opportunities, reputation, standing, bank accounts, other freedoms.
   2. david lamy May 4, 2026 at 9:10 am

      @DJG
      Thank you for an effective response to some ill-considered phrasing that bothered me.

      The US can stop exacerbating a crisis it is solely responsible for. (Especially arming Israel.)

      I wonder why governments all over the globe have not summoned the US ambassadors to their countries to appear before the appropriate officials for a tongue lashing?
      1. ChrisFromGA May 4, 2026 at 9:22 am

         The Chinese cannot even bring themselves to tell Taco to stay home and pound sand.

         Cowardice begets more cowardice.
         1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 4, 2026 at 12:12 pm

            As I understand it, he essentially invited himself. It will be interesting to see who actually meets with him – I seem to recall some years back that the Chinese pretty much stiffed a European delegation.

            It’d be funny as heck if they just offered to put him in a tour group … or if Xi was already booked with other appointments.
            1. ChrisFromGA May 4, 2026 at 12:43 pm

               What if they booked him on a yoga retreat? I hear Kathmandu is nice this time of year.
               1. thoughtfulperson May 4, 2026 at 4:25 pm

                  Perhaps the Chinese could arrange a stay in the same conditions as Maduro is enjoying during his stay in the u.s.a?

                  Considering the u.s. is at war with the rest of the world it is the least the Chinese could do.
         2. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 12:50 pm

            Bravely written.
   3. Uwe Ohse May 5, 2026 at 2:52 am

      Excuse the cynicism, but it is not an humanitarian crisis if the opponents are not even human.

      The Iranians are “disturbed animals” (IIRC – i’m not going to search for trumps phrases), and it stands to reason that their allies aren’t any better.
      Therefore there is no humanitarian crisis anywhere in the region. Problem solved.

      This is a logical consequence of dehumanization, and one reason why we, the people, should never ever let our leaders get away with dehumanization.

      But we did. Which is a declaration of bankruptcy for any democracy.
7. Aurelien May 4, 2026 at 8:27 am

   The fundamental point is intellectual failure, yet again. To “escort” unarmed ships in such a situation means that you have armed ships which can deter or defeat enemy attacks on the vessels you are escorting. That is not the case, and it isn’t going to be the case, because we are not talking WW2 U-Boats here, or even surface raiders, we’re talking missiles and small patrol boats, which will be as big as threat to the “escorts” as to the notional targets. Perhaps somebody realised this five minutes after Trump’s announcement. The fact is that the US doesn’t have a Navy capable of carrying out this task, and indeed no-one does. The nature of surface warfare has changed and the US will have neither the industrial capacity nor the doctrine to change with it.
   1. Parker Dooley May 4, 2026 at 9:14 am

      Two kinds of ships– submarines & targets.
      1. Polar Socialist May 4, 2026 at 12:37 pm

         That’s because submarines are blind and thus have to consider every contact as target.

         As they are also slow and low on ammo, they have to usually avoid these “targets”, as they have very little chance of survival should any of them prove to be hostile.
   2. redleg May 4, 2026 at 10:52 am

      Adding to this, the US Navy has a few crucial problems.
      1.We all understand that naval ships are expensive in terms of cost and resources, which is why they are called capital ships. I suggest that this understates the value of US naval vessels, as US industrial capacity in general and shipbuilding expertise in particular has been on a steady decline for decades. What this means is that the naval vessels aren’t just expensive, they are priceless. Irreplaceable. The capacity to repair or replace a vessel in a timely manner simply doesn’t exist in the US.
      2. The Navy, by the reports I’ve read, is suffering from a shortage of sailors. Assuming that personnel retention is addressed by a stop-loss order (which prevents personnel from leaving the service), any casualties that occur cannot be readily replaced. Implementing a draft, or finding an incentive program to make people want to enlist in this situation, takes time. Then it takes roughly a year to train these people, if not longer, and even more time for them to actually be good at their jobs. Expanding the Navy to meet this mission is not possible due to the lack of sailors even if ships are available.
      3. No amount of money solves the above issues quickly, if at all.
   3. .Tom May 4, 2026 at 3:00 pm

      I don’t think the problem is that the politicians are using the language wrong or don’t adequately understand it. The problem, as I see it, is the preeminence of language. They live in the world of language, i.e. the symbolic world of words, images, ideas, and not in the physical and biological world of bombs, guns, ships, aircraft and soldiers destroying people and things and being destroyed. I don’t think Trump, Hegseth, Vance etc. are interested in real-world outcomes so long as they like the look of themselves in the symbolic world. So how well they understand the words is secondary.
   4. Uwe Ohse May 5, 2026 at 3:28 am

      The nature of surface warfare has changed

      Yes, it has, but this doesn’t matter for the hypothetical escorting in the strait of hormuz.

      Any well defended coastal area has been a death zone for any attacking navy for more than a hundred years now, unless was is cleared with superior firepower (Normandy). Germany learned that in the second world war by the example of the Blücher, and i am sure the US navy learned that too – somewhere.
      It doesn’t matter if a ship is sunk by hidden cannons and torpedoes, or by a number of drones. Sunk is sunk.
8. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 8:35 am

   ‘particularly since most, perhaps all, are not being allowed to go into port for provisions and are getting water and food via boats. Even worse, it has not offered any assistance.’

   There was an article a few weeks back saying that Gulf State countries were refusing permission for those ships to dock and get fresh supplies. Since most of these ships are carrying oil and other goods coming out of Gulf state countries, it should be them rendering aid and assistance.
   1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 4, 2026 at 12:16 pm

      There was an article a few weeks back saying that Gulf State countries were refusing permission for those ships to dock and get fresh supplies. Since most of these ships are carrying oil and other goods coming out of Gulf state countries, it should be them rendering aid and assistance.

      The spin, of course, will be that it’s “all Iran’s fault.” Maybe giving Trump another reason to get kinetic again.
9. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 8:37 am

   I won’t let you down, I will not let us give up
   Gotta have some faith in thinking that’s sound
   It’s the one good thing that I’ve got
   I won’t let you down, so please don’t give me up
   Because I would really, really love to stick around
   Oh, yeah

   Heaven knows I was just Bibi’s goy
   Didn’t know what I wanted to be (didn’t know what I wanted to be)
   I was Miriam Adelson’s pride and joy
   And I guess the remuneration was enough for me (and I guess remuneration was enough for me)

   To win the war, and appease my base
   Between a rock and a hard place
   On my Truth Social scene (Truth Social scene)
   But today the way I play the game is not the same, no way
   Think I get more eyeballs when I say something obscene

   I think there’s something you should know
   (I think it’s time I told you so)
   There’s something deep inside of me
   (There’s someone else I’ve got to be)
   Take back your criticism
   (Take back your slinging odious refrain)
   I just hope you understand
   Sometimes accusations do not make it to the man

   All we have to do now
   Is to take these lies and make them true somehow
   All we have to see
   Is that I don’t belong to you, But you belong to me, yeah-yeah

   Project Freedom (I won’t let you down)
   Project Freedom (I will not give you up)
   Project Freedom (gotta have some faith where we’re bound)
   You’ve got to give as good as you take (it’s the one good thing that I’ve got)
   Project Freedom (I won’t let you down)
   Project Freedom (so please don’t give me up)
   Project Freedom (’cause I would really)
   You’ve got to give as good as you take (really would love to stick around)

   Freedom ’90, by George Michael

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaEjDk3lgcI&list=RDFaEjDk3lgcI
   1. Antagonist May 5, 2026 at 12:26 am

      After reading a whirlwind of news today and comments in this thread and contemplating the probable horrific and forthcoming consequences, I decided to re-watch the music video of Freedom ’90. I was hoping to get turned on from the 1990s supermodels featured in that video to distract me today’s reality. Recreating nostalgic adolescent sexual arousal from yesteryear sounds like a good idea. Didn’t work. Bummer.

      Tatjana Patitz, Naomi Campbell, Cindy Crawford, Linda Evangelista, and Christy Turlington getting together is like Jordan, Magic, Bird, Barkley, and the fifth most famous NBA player (Mullin? Pippen? Ewing?) teaming up for the Dream Team.
10. ilsm May 4, 2026 at 8:46 am

    Trump’s deity syndrome: I will punish Iran for its sins “done to Humanity, and the World, for 47 years.”

    Divus Trump casting Iran into his self-inspired open-ended purgatory!

    Bend the knee!
    1. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 8:54 am

       I will punish Iran for its sins “done to Humanity, and the World, during # 47’s years

       There, fixed it for you,
       1. ilsm May 4, 2026 at 9:30 am

          Tx, good catch.
       2. Carolinian May 4, 2026 at 9:55 am

          Toldja he was “becoming a god.” He and Jupiter will soon be palling around on Olympus.
          1. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 10:04 am

             In these turbulent times, i’m taking it day by deity.
          2. motorslug May 4, 2026 at 3:40 pm

             Makes watching the final season of The Boys too close for comfort.
             Good thing childish stupidity isn’t a superpower.
          3. redleg May 4, 2026 at 7:12 pm

             Carpe Deus!
    2. Samuel Conner May 4, 2026 at 9:20 am

       My thought was that the premise underlying this rhetoric, that “nations should be punished for their past misdeeds,” is a precedent that a US president should hesitate to establish.
    3. hk May 4, 2026 at 11:11 am

       Dajjal Trump.
11. Milton May 4, 2026 at 8:55 am

    One thing to keep in mind is the weather has begun to warm. Currently, temps are in the 90s to low 100s for cities bordering the gulf. That’s warm but nowhere near what will be coming the next few months. Dew points are still in the low 60s, making the heat index not much more than the actual air temperature. What’s in store for the stranded sailors in the gulf are daily highs in the 100s but with dew points in the high 80s to low 90s. The stranded will be experiencing heat indexes around 140-170! Any loss of power to cooling will result in deaths to those stuck at sea. Balky ships really need to be removed from the area as soon as possible. I guess that would include any large US carriers as they are wont to have the occasional power outage.
    1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 9:07 am

       Not only carriers. The USS Higgins – an Arleigh Burke class destroyer – lost power and propulsion for several hours meaning that it was as good as dead in the water with no ability to defend itself-

       https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/us-navy-warship-lost-power-and-propulsion-for-hours-defence-official-says/

       After reading this story, I began to wonder if this was caused by the wear and tear on ships like this after so many weeks at sea.
12. Gnocchi May 4, 2026 at 8:59 am

    Isn’t NO1’s daily roundup an AI bot crawling his twitter?
    1. leaf May 4, 2026 at 9:35 am

       I think so since the description under it says, “Automated digest-feed of the last day of a select few twitter accounts”. Seems like a good aggregator though
       NO1 also has another substack with his articles like the latest one with their take on Richard Medhurst’s petrogas concept
       https://no01.substack.com/p/the-petrogas-dollar
13. 4paul May 4, 2026 at 9:06 am

    I may get banned for stupidity, but, Yves said a couple weeks ago that a nonzero number of traders use astrology and other “signs” … is this whole thing as simple as:

    Trump is the 47th president
    Iranian Revolution was 47 years ago
    “it’s a sign!”

    so Trump will keep bombing to December 31st, because, clearly, 47 is the answer to Life The Universe And Everything.

    Trump keeps referencing 47 years, he himself has not explicitly made the connection to his “number”, but, last June Iran proved they could flatten Israel with conventional weapons, yet, here we are a year later.
14. FlyoverBoy May 4, 2026 at 9:07 am

    I wonder if Iran’s failure of administrative alertness on coordinating passage through the Strait might have something to do with their entire top layer of administrators having been incinerated by the Israelis and Americans.
    1. Lefty Godot May 4, 2026 at 12:17 pm

       Yes, you can only have so many Priority Ones after all, especially when resources have been attrited. Executives in American corporations would dispute that, of course…
15. Ignacio May 4, 2026 at 9:08 am

    I don’t think it is just Trump the one who makes impossible any retreat from maximalist ambitions. The people behind him, quite possible well beyond the Government members, almost certainly support his badly understood concept of manhood and help him to entertain those deluded ideas he then writes in social networks. Not just Trump but the US establishment are those who cannot stand to be dominated. People say that Trump manipulates markets but it is possibly more realistic to say that Markets hail Trump to “manipulate” them in the sense they exactly want. It surprised me long ago the first time I saw a US person taking his hand to her/his front with index and thumb fingers extended in an L shape signalling “Looser, Looser” but I haven’t seen anything remotely similar anywhere else. Being a looser is probably one of the worst labels to be perched to anyone in the US. Very difficult to stomach it. At some point the gorilla pounding its chest that was showing all available carrier groups in the region, and which so far hasn’t impressed the Iranians very much, will feel the need to “go kinetic” again as they say these days.
    1. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 9:16 am

       335 million Leo Dorucher’s…

       Win any way as long as you can get away with it. Nice guys finish last.
       1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 9:33 am

          Or as I heard it once from a US coach-

          ‘Second place is first loser.’
          1. mrsyk May 4, 2026 at 11:27 am

             Lol, are you sure that wasn’t …first litigant?
    2. natureboy May 4, 2026 at 10:35 am

       “Not just Trump but the US establishment are those who cannot stand to be dominated.”

       100% agreement. Those who blame Trump (or Netanyahu, or Israel) are just pampered souls crying out for a less gaudy and tasteless approach to extractive empire. Their focus on political leaders and allegedly out-of-control proxies relieves our blandly vicious elites of responsibility for the things they allow to happen for their convenience — for decades under cover of a bogus but quite-palatable-to-decent-folk crusade for freedom and democracy, and more lately a series of desperate and openly racist terror campaigns. Lifestyles of the rich and famous do not come for free.
16. Carolinian May 4, 2026 at 9:10 am

    Re “Trump cannot stand to be dominated”–but of course he is being dominated by Israel and Netanyahu, just not so publicly. This is in line with the general Israeli (and its backers) line as reported by Phil Weiss. In private they boast of Jewish power while playing the victims in public.

    And so Netanyahu says things like “waiting for US approval” while behind the scenes he and his proxies (including Trump’s own son in law and Bibi family friend Kushner) are shaping Trump’s behavior. It’s this element of the current war that has to be kept on the qt which is why real reporting on consequences, as Yves is doing above, is so sparse in our MSM.

    To say this is not some anti-Semitic trope because it really has nothing to do with religion and everything to do with “chosen.” The wealthy oligarchic class always think their lucky privilege is the result of some inherited superiority. The British upper classes were no different. The Israelis get away with what they are doing because they and our ruling elites are all on the same page with this. If you are the powerful few then dominating the hungry many is job one.

    Arguably it’s our capitalist Western culture that is experiencing dementia. Reality has to be kept at bay.
    1. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 9:21 am

       Kosher Nostra doesn’t threaten to whack your knee if you don’t come through, they merely make mention of Epstein.
    2. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 9:21 am

       ‘In private they boast of Jewish power while playing the victims in public.’

       I’m seeing this in Oz right now. There is a Royal Commission on the Bondi murders and some of the people connected with this are trying to make out that Oz is getting ready to have pogroms of the Jews here and how unsafe they feel. I reality, it is all about trying to ban Israel protestors & Palestinian supporters because it hurts their feelings or something. But in doing so it makes Oz a more authoritarian country with fewer rights to protest-

       https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-04/bondi-antisemitism-social-cohesion-royal-commission/106637702
       1. TimH May 4, 2026 at 12:58 pm

          We had Bondi murders here too, of the Pam sort, in the sense that the AG wouldn’t investigate the ICE killings.
17. ciroc May 4, 2026 at 9:17 am

    For Iran, closing the Strait of Hormuz is merely part of a strategy to force the United States to surrender. It’s pointless to think about the postwar period while the war is still ongoing. It seems the IRGC’s only goal is to win the current conflict with the United States.
18. ChrisFromGA May 4, 2026 at 9:20 am

    Reminder: The Powell Doctrine was invented by Gen. Colin Powell, as a response to the US military’s failure in Vietnam. It consists of eight critical questions that must be answered affirmatively before engaging in military action:

    1. Is a vital national security interest threatened?
    2. Do we have a clear and attainable objective?
    3. Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
    4. Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
    5. Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
    6. Have the consequences of military action been fully considered?
    7. Is the action supported by the American people?
    8. Do we have broad international support?

    Every single question is answerable as “No”. No broad international support, no support from the American people, no exit strategy, no consideration of consequences.

    Only number one is really even debatable.

    Trump is the fail-iest failure in the history of fail-dom.
    1. Samuel Conner May 4, 2026 at 9:26 am

       Have no fear; the Powell Doctrine may have been disregarded, but the Powell Memo is still effectively Holy Writ.

       /s
    2. JonnyJames May 4, 2026 at 12:04 pm

       But the real question may just be: “how much can we pirate, loot and pillage from the US public, US Treasury, and foreign countries in order to enrich ourselves, our oligarch donors (bribe masters) and our cronies before the global economy crashes. Then afterward, we can buy up everything at fire-sale prices and further monopolize the place.”
    3. John Wright May 4, 2026 at 12:36 pm

       Yet, Powell and his advisor Lawrence Wilkerson did not appear to be much concerned about these questions when Powell made his presentation against Iraq at the United Nations on the run up to the Iraq War in 2003.

       What Powell did at the UN was very important in pimping for the war.

       He was viewed as responsible compared to the Bush Jr neocons so his UN appearance was very important.

       It would have been an appropriate time to answer these eight questions.
       1. motorslug May 4, 2026 at 4:04 pm

          It’s worth remembering what Harry Belafonte thought of (and publicly called) Powell at that point.
          “In the days of slavery, there were those slaves who lived on the plantation and there were those slaves that lived in the house. You got the privilege of living in the house if you served the master … exactly the way the master intended to have you serve him.”
          1. JonnyJames May 4, 2026 at 4:21 pm

             I think Belafonte was was greatly influenced by this speech given years earlier.

             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwgJewsy2BI
19. Charles Carroll May 4, 2026 at 9:35 am

    I have read arguments that Japan could have gotten away with seizing the oil fields in the Dutch East Indies and NOT attacking Pearl Harbor. The US public was very against going to war.

    The Dutch East Indies was a major global oil producer (fourth-largest in the late 1930s) and a key target for Japan during World War II. Oil was primarily located in Sumatra, Borneo, and Java, with key production hubs at Tarakan, Balikpapan, and Palembang (Plaju). The industry was dominated by Royal Dutch Shell’s subsidiary, Bataafsche Petroleum Maatschappij (BPM).
    1. Charles Carroll May 4, 2026 at 9:41 am

       Now they are a permanent vassal of the US.
20. Tom Stone May 4, 2026 at 9:38 am

    Describing Trump as deranged or unhinged is not, unfortunately, hyperbole.
    As this becomes more obvious, more undeniable, there will be consequences.
    The Swabbies know it, you can’t keep them in the dark given modern communications technology, the courtiers know it, they will be desperately trying to CYA.
    The various battling factions in the Trump administration know it and they will be acting in what they percieve as their interests without considering the consequences to the Nation or the World.
    Some will be going “We gotta get rid of this dude before he blows up the World”, some will be going “Good God, if Trump leaves who is going to pardon me?”
    And many will be grabbing whatever levers of power they can, while they can, without any coordination or consideration of the consequences.
    If you think it is crazy now, give it a month or two.
    “It’s gonna be lit” with a flamethrower.

    As an aside someone I know who is a real “Steady Eddie”, someone who is one of the least likely I know to panic just bought a fighting rifle.
    It’s not a hunting rifle although you could use it for that, and it’s not a target rifle, it’s a fighting rifle.
    He also bought 1,000 rounds of ammo.
    The $1,500 he just spent is not something he can easily afford.
    That got my attention.
    Stay safe and enjoy the show.
    1. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 9:49 am

       A Pachyderm Party friend is resting up in India where he is recovering after Ganesha surgery, opting for 8 arms (he could have gone for as many as 16, but didn’t think things would get that bad) to wield so much more firepower back in the states, in order to remove obstacles.
21. Charles Carroll May 4, 2026 at 9:40 am

    I have read arguments that Japan could have gotten away with seizing the oil fields in the Dutch East Indies and NOT attacking Pearl Harbor. The US public was very against going to war.

    The Dutch East Indies was a major global oil producer (fourth-largest in the late 1930s) and a key target for Japan during World War II. Oil was primarily located in Sumatra, Borneo, and Java, with key production hubs at Tarakan, Balikpapan, and Palembang (Plaju). The industry was dominated by Royal Dutch Shell’s subsidiary, Bataafsche Petroleum Maatschappij (BPM).

    Now they are a permanent vassal of the US.
22. Ann May 4, 2026 at 9:48 am

    Emirati oil tanker attacked by two Iranian drones in latest escalation

    https://abnews.net/emirati-oil-tanker-attacked-by-two-iranian-drones-in-latest-escalation/

    UAE condemns targeting of Adnoc-affiliated tanker in Hormuz

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/05/04/uae-condemns-targeting-of-adnoc-affiliated-tanker-in-hormuz/

    US-led task force tells ships to reroute on first day of new effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

    https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-ceasefire-negotiations-strait-a4857f28d9b47e0170b65ced19451a25

    Indonesia, Japan Seal Defense Pact as Tokyo Lifts Lethal Arms Export Ban

    https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-japan-seal-defense-pact-as-tokyo-lifts-lethal-arms-export-ban
23. Ann May 4, 2026 at 9:58 am

    US evacuates 22 crew members on seized Iranian ship to Pakistan

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-evacuates-22-crew-members-seized-iranian-ship-pakistan-2026-05-04/

    Iran: US Hormuz escort plan would breach ceasefire

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895013

    Somali pirate and Houthi alliance targets $1T oil trade route with revived hijack tactic

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/somali-pirate-houthi-alliance-targets-1t-oil-trade-route-revived-hijack-tactic

    Israel’s economy and financial markets are booming — even as conflict rages in the Middle East

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/israel-economy-stock-market-tel-aviv-trump-netanyahu-gdp-us-inflation.html

    Australia and Japan sign agreements on energy, defence and critical minerals

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-04/australia-japan-sign-agreements-energy-defence-critical-minerals/106638864

    Trump denied he made this remark about Iran. He made it on camera one day earlier

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/03/politics/trump-iran-comment-fact-check?cid=ios_app
24. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 10:00 am

    I feel we are on the verge of momentous change-a sea change, if you will.

    The Golden Billion has ruled the roost since Columbus sailed the ocean blue, everything went our way even if we were merely coasting on past laurels as of late. Can’t tell you what the catalyst will be, but I have a name for you:

    The Shock Heard Round The World
25. hoki_haya May 4, 2026 at 10:00 am

    the view of america from iran holds a lot more savvy (and even sympathy to varying degrees) than most of the domesticated populace trapped in america who collectively enable these atrocities around the world can exhibit upon themselves.

    to say nothing of the fact that it would be unwise, to say the least, to take any negotiation in good faith with a party who broke off february negotiations (even when being offered more than JCPOA accounted for) in order to assassinate the leader, his two-year old granddaughter at his side and surrounding family, and countless other ‘leaders’ and their families, and former leaders (civilians, professors, etc) and their families. did we kill ‘everyone’ yet? ugh.

    they hoped ‘the regime’ would fall – it unified iranian resolve. they hoped they could get the kurds, baluchis etc to serve as brownshirts – but they said nah, you ripped us off too in the past. they hoped 20 billion dollars per day worth of bombs americans purchased for their government would do the job – nope. they thought we’ll go in and get some uranium, that’ll look good – ah, whoops, now we gotta rescue some pilots. we’ll threaten nuclear genocide, that should bring em to bend the knee? nope.

    no words, most of the conscious world has no words for how depraved and beyond childish the us, israel, and eu elites and their corresponding sycophants appear.
    ============
    it wasn’t her, the one i’d been expecting, but it was nonetheless a proud daughter of russia that stood, turned, smiled directly into the smile i left and retrieved on my stoop. i was at home in the thunder though lost in the storm i’d been waiting for, had been hoping the mountains would hold a dialogue with themselves soon, and watched her waddle, awkward and confident, in the last puddled steps to my home. she tried to enter the market next door, and i shrugged in our smile, ‘yeah, it’s closed.’

    because today’s nearly a holiday here – Macron visits. all the western NGOs can go nuts, and bring along their bait, celebrate whatever they catch. i think of DeGaulle, or even Mitterand, back when Europe had a spine and its nations individual identities – genuine socialist independence, before being swallowed by neoliberal charlatanism.

    armenia won’t completely fall for it. there are too many wise grandparents left, and the wisdom imparted to their grandchildren is still able to recognize ‘who is happier, really? grandpa or my dad?’ grandpa and his people were the last ones who didn’t start selling out.

    the neighbors shrug; grandparents laugh. which won’t stop the EU/US from ensuring their tool maintains his post. we take refuge inside to talk, while most listen for what they most want to hear.
    1. Jabura Basadai May 5, 2026 at 1:37 am

       thank you – appreciate the poem slipped in – and all your other words too – here and down below a bit – you are a refreshing voice speaking from a place of conscience, not just observation – thanks again –
26. ISL May 4, 2026 at 10:28 am

    WRT why Iran has not devoted the resources to setting up a ship clearinghouse could be because they fully expect kinetic action to restart and are more concerned with preparations for the next attack.

    Now, let me say I never would say procrastination is a good strategy; however, when I have two deadlines, I drop everything for the latter. I know I shouldn’t, but…..

    (Worth noting that the more desperate the global economy, the better Iran’s terms, and when the US resumes it takes the hit).
    1. leaf May 4, 2026 at 10:35 am

       In my later years at undergrad, my classmates and I sort of became severely burned out and adopted the attitude of “if it ain’t due today, we ain’t doing it today” which was not really a healthy behaviour either. I hope Iran has not adopted that attitude.
       1. hoki_haya May 4, 2026 at 11:11 am

          rest assured; no one here is an undergrad. ugh. stop paying your taxes and enabling the genocide-machine, all of you, already! how do we think this gets done, domestically, for perpetuity, on our side? we all agree there are horrid things being done in our name and with our money, have been for generations, and we go online under pseudonyms and voice our discontent, and continue feeding the beast?!

          no doubt when i was back there i saw many lost souls defeated, purposeless, even worse than what i grew up with…but i have to think there is something better among and inside us that can still rise up? do you need a leader to do it? do we need the ‘ok’? feel like i’m talking with Kent from months ago…such timidity in westerners…grandparents’ teachings maybe weren’t as solid as they are here, guided by nature. difficulty is not a friggin problem! oh, that we should inconvenience ourselves in order to correct wrongs!

          just general thoughts from afar; no offense meant.
    2. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 10:40 am

       I suspect you are correct. And, there may be some sort of arrangement being made that we are not aware of. From what I can tell, Iran has been negotiating with other nations without US involvement on these types of matters. They may not feel it necessary to give the details to the world at large until everything has been settled with the non-belligerent countries. As NC has admonished for many years now, it does take time to set up new financial infrastructures, and that’s without a hostile armada pointed at one’s head.
27. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 10:36 am

    RE: “…Team Trump hopes that getting US seamen injured or killed, whether military or civilian, would generate outrage in the US..”

    We don’t really need Iran’s help to accomplish that – Search underway for 2 U.S. service members missing amid training exercise in Morocco

    Why is the US military doing training exercises in yet another country not anywhere near the US, you might ask. I’d say that is a very good question.
    1. scott s. May 4, 2026 at 1:35 pm

       Balikitan 2026 has been ongoing for a while with major participation of the 3rd Marines from K-Bay Hawaii. Guess it includes a NMESIS deployment.
28. ISL May 4, 2026 at 10:57 am

    Regarding the fertilizer crunch, Steve Keen points out that if diesel is too expensive or unavailable, the food rots on the field. Also, which he doesn’t mention, but which has been noted here – food is delivered to factories, which then package it in plastic for the distribution chain? What happens without the naptha? There are no longer local butchers! There are almost no local bakers.

    My recommendation
    1. Set in a store of beans and grains before panic buying makes them unavailable (and diesel absence undeliverable).
    2. Start a garden if at all possible. Squash, in particular, if well fed, can provide long-storing food in very little space (trellis!!!). Two years ago, we grew 2000 pounds (yes a ton – many happy neighbors) from six trompetta squash plants – each produced 6 to 10 20-60 pound squash. Secret – lots of chicken manure compost. Cucuzza is another – there is a saying, one cuccuzza plant can feed a village. Three months to fruit – so it’s not too late! Plant flowers for the pollinators (or hand-pollinate). And get a pressure canner and ball jars – two years ago, we filled up the freezer.
    1. amfortas May 4, 2026 at 11:30 am

       aye. trombocini, spaghetti squash, and the old timey pumpkins i cant pronounce(galleiuax…something). kushaws, too…but the wet last july killed off last of mine.
       all are heirloom and sprout true(save the seeds)..and all are superfoods, loaded with vitamins …and all store well in a cool, dry, dark place.
       and like you alluded: grow them up…whether on a trellis, or up into the trees.
       (i harvest with a polesaw and a big net)…keeps the powdery mildew at bay, and confuses the squash bugs.
       metal trashcans are good for dry bean storage…i allow the spiders to do their thing in there.
       for rice, plastic buckets from ace hardware with tight lids.
       a 1/8 cup or less of diatomaceious earth will keep the weevils, etc from making rice/bean flour.
       and here in nw texas hill country, at least, i manage to grow stuff year round, even without the little greenhouse…carrots, onions, garlic gone wild, all manner of salad.
       even a big freeze , if ya cover em with a sheet, and theyll come back.
       (the week-long to 3 week ice ages we’ve had this decade are rather problematic in this regard…so extra seed is a must….i just harvested a feedsack full of arugula seeds yesterday…more still making, along with lettuce, etc)
       1. JonnyJames May 4, 2026 at 11:55 am

          This is all great advice, mahalo! I’ve read that milled rice will last indefinitely if stored properly. I’m going to tell our friends in Hawaii to make sure to stock up. And SPAM too
       2. DD GE May 4, 2026 at 12:18 pm

          Galeux d’Eysines pumpkin ?
          gah-loo day-zin, if you must.
          I read in the US they’re also called “peanut pumpkins”.
          1. amfortas May 4, 2026 at 12:40 pm

             thats the one,lol.
             keeps well, and the seed runs true…ive only actually bought seed for it once..been saving it for about a dozen years. not near as sweet as regular orange pumpkins, which is good, imo.
    2. Jason Boxman May 4, 2026 at 12:06 pm

       I panic bought some more stuff last night, mostly canned tomatoes, canned chickpeas, and basmati rice I finally found and kept wanting for years. Need to draw up a list and go out again.
    3. Yves Smith Post authorMay 4, 2026 at 2:53 pm

       I have been talking to everyone I can about the very-bad-for-food-distribution implications of a plastics shortage. I get looks as if I am nuts.

       Some of us live in apartments and have no yard space :-(
    4. LY May 4, 2026 at 4:45 pm

       Had a Nippon Television (NTV) news video in Youtube pop up on struggling tofu makes. The main driver is naptha and plastic packaging costs.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7iaeG3x6EA
29. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 11:16 am

    Ah, breaker four-seven, this here’s the Knesset Duck. You gotta copy on me, Pig Pen, c’mon?
    Ah, yeah, 10-4, Pig Pen, fer shure, fer shure. By golly, it’s clean clear to Flag of Convenience Town, c’mon
    Yeah, that’s a big 10-4 there, Pig Pen, yeah, we definitely got the front door open, good buddy
    Mercy sakes alive, looks like we got us a convoy…

    Was on a day on the 4th of May
    In a guided-missile Destroyer
    Up over F-18’s above
    And a refueler haulin’ oil

    We is headin’ to bear down
    ‘Bout a mile outta Sheikh’y Town
    I says, “Pig Pen, this here’s the Knesset Duck”
    “And I’m about to put the hammer down”

    ‘Cause we got a great big convoy
    Rockin’ through the night
    Yeah, we got a great big convoy
    Ain’t she a beautiful sight?

    Come on and join our convoy
    Ain’t nothin’ gonna get in our way
    We gonna roll this convoy
    ‘Cross the Hormuz Strait, convoy

    Ah, breaker, Pig Pen, this here’s the Knesset Duck. And, you wanna back off them tankers?

    Yeah, 10-4, ’bout five mile or so. Ten, roger. Them crews is gettin’ in-tense up here

    By the time we got into neo-Gulf of Tonkin
    We had 100 aircraft in all
    But there’s 15,000 service members
    And them Iranian defenses was wall-to-wall

    Yeah, them missiles is thick as bugs on a bumper
    They even had a dolphin armed with mines
    I says, “Callin’ all ships, this here’s the Knesset Duck
    We about to go a-huntin’ there!”

    ‘Cause we got a great big convoy
    Rockin’ through the night
    Yeah, we got a great big convoy
    Ain’t she a beautiful sight?

    Come on and join our convoy
    Ain’t nothin’ gonna get in our way
    We gonna roll this convoy
    ‘Cross the Hormuz Strait, convoy

    Convoy, by C.W. McCall

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9BWlGP_DJw&list=RDd9BWlGP_DJw
    1. JonnyJames May 4, 2026 at 11:46 am

       Another good one Wuk! I had forgot about that old novelty tune from the 1970s. When I was around 7 or so, it was on the top 40 radio station (KFRC) on heavy rotation. Novelty tunes were big back then.
       1. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 11:51 am

          Thanks for the kudos d’gras

          For a brief moment big wheel truckers were almost famous in the midst of the CB craze where regular Joes yearned to talk the lingo of the long distance driver. It came and went pretty quickly.
    2. ThirtyOne May 4, 2026 at 12:57 pm

       The Bread Ad That Created a CB Legend: The Real Story of C.W. McCall
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPZvY1rjAtM

       (Altered or synthetic content
       Sound or visuals were significantly edited or digitally generated.)
30. JMH May 4, 2026 at 11:30 am

    Medhurst makes a horrible kind of sense. The finance weenies think short term or so it seems to me. Oil and gas has longer timelines so oil and gas people could have thought in decade terms. You can also look at the string of events wonder if there is a conscious logical order. By his logic the damage to Qatar’s gas facilities by Iran might have been an item in a plan to corner the has market or a happy accidental benefit.
    The US going back toward a maritime strategy has always made sense. 800 or so footprints look more like defending everything and thus defending nothing. The huge ‘but’ is the condition of the navy. China’s is larger but untested. Russia’s strength is its submarine fleet but they do have surface warships. What will be the Chinese and Russian response and when will it come? Medhurst puts all the economic cards in the US hand. I have my doubts that that is as complete as he says.
    Pirate nation? Looks like it. Pirates have always been subject to summary justice. Wasn’t that what was done in recent years off the coast of Somalia?
    Finally, as is obvious, two can play the game. We do live in interesting times. The trick is to survive such times to enjoy the dull aftermath.
    1. boshko May 4, 2026 at 1:50 pm

       Medhurst does provide a lot to chew on. i can’t decide if the dot connecting is too gratuitous, or if the US capacity to implement its dot-plot is too incompetent and de-industrialized.

       particularly the bit about shifting the oil and gas energy economy to the western hemisphere and having it all run on US-made (what?!?) ships and extorted via US naval power. just like what commenters said above about US ship-building as gone decades ago, i love to recall the Zumwalt class: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Zumwalt

       truly, who can top the US in frivolous waste heaped upon underperforming assets that project power until the moment it has to be implemented. so are we just to rely on submarines to do all this?

       and the US doesn’t make LNG tankers for this whole new economic and geopolitical world to spin on. (it barely even owns enough of them). guess who does make a ton of them?? that’s right, the adversary this is all meant to control, China, in second place after S Korea.

       i’m afraid the priors in this quarter-century-old 2001 national energy policy plan haven’t been adequately updated. but having a deficient strategy, or no strategy at all, hasn’t stopped this declining empire yet, so why not go for a moon shot.

       but medhurst is not a finance or economics person and it shows in the whole petro-gas dollar resurrection. his thesis rests upon:

       All in all, the US strategy ensures that everyone is

       Forced to buy American, because Uncle Sam crippled the other vendors

       Forced to pay USD, weakening their own currencies

       Forced to pay wartime prices, adding insult to injury

       The key part of the incumbent petrodollar was not even the transacting in dollars but holding reserves in dollars, and moreso, holding UST as USD reserves. the saudis were all but forced to. this allowed us to deficit finance our egregious foreign wars that tax payers would never pay up to. so how will that work in a world where the petro-gas dollar proceeds are now going to US private corporations? are oil companies going to buy UST with their profits? of course not. american firms only spend capital on share buybacks and dividends. they will literally borrow money to do so.

       Then medhurst states that the petro-gas dollar will bring deindustrialization in…Asia? but get this, at the expense of reshoring in the US. recall it’s the labor costs primarily (and environmental arbitrage) that led multinationals to de-industrialize the US over the last half century. until that radically changes, and is stable for long run investment planning, this is kind of a silly argument. and where would they get all the intermediate goods and inputs and commodities necessary to re-industrialize?

       if this is ultimately a horserace between the re-industrializing of the US (ships, maritime dominance, industrial capacity and might) and de-industrializion of BRICS, or china, because of fossil fuel blockades, i’d bet the BRICS are faster and better at switching to nuclear and renewables and being done with US hegemony.
       1. thoughtfulperson May 4, 2026 at 6:53 pm

          I think you are onto something boshko. Medhurst may well be close in guessing the Machiavellian method in what otherwise appears to be complete madness. However, will the u.s., under the Trump administration and a gaggle of very entitled oligarchs, be successful in carrying it out? Especially if the rest of the world figures out what they are up to? No ships built by China or rare earths for that matter.

          If Medhurst is right that this plan originated in ’01 (personally I suspect a “project 2026” effort of some sort more likely) then this originators may not have realized what the state of u.s. industry would be (not to mention all the military equip that needs constant maint)
          1. JIM GARDEN May 4, 2026 at 8:09 pm

             I’ve long been curious about how two large pipelines were rammed through here in central Appalachia, headed to the coast of the Atlantic. Eminent domain was utilized for private entities but we locals don’t get gas from the MVP (Mountain Valley Pipeline) and its 42″ diameter pipe.

             My curiosity stemmed from the seeming ‘coincidence’ with the the Nordstream ‘incident’ … but Medhurst has certainly added a lot more meat to this bone.

             10,000 additional protestors sequestering on tree platforms wasn’t going to stop this project it would seem
31. hoytmonger May 4, 2026 at 11:32 am

    Regarding the reference to the Gulf of Tonkin event…

    I rather believe it would be more of a USS Liberty event, which according to the documentary, “Sacrificing Liberty”, was intended to cause a nuclear response. Allegedly, the Sixth Fleet launched, and then recalled, nuclear armed aircraft to attack Egypt… on behalf of the Israelis.

    But the Liberty survived, it wouldn’t sink… and was forced to limp to Italy with all the dead on board… they received no assistance from the USN.
    1. hk May 4, 2026 at 8:24 pm

       Stories differ on the target of the launched and recalled planes: I seem to recall a version of the story where the admiral launched the strike package to attack “whoever was attacking the Liberty,” ie Israel, and was ordered to recall them by McNamara. He refused and insisted that the president give him the order himself. It turns out that LBJ was right there so the order to recall the strike was formally given.
32. DG Bear May 4, 2026 at 11:41 am

    amfortas “all in all, looks like a desperate strategy, and one that relies on a bunch of assumptions.”

    I agree. Also, Russia, China and many other countries are making plans…just for survival if nothing else.

    Yves postulated long ago, wondering if Trump was just going to bring it all down as he goes down. I believe that is a real possibility. Trump is our Mrs. Rochester up in the attic. – Jane Eyre reference.

    We have stocked a lot of food. We sincerely say goodbye and I love you when we talk to our children.
    1. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 1:34 pm

       Who is Mr Rochester in your analogy?
33. JonnyJames May 4, 2026 at 11:42 am

    Regarding the already higher prices of fuel and gas in the US. The average in California is already $6.11/gal. and Diesel is around 7.75. Compared to some other countries that is still “cheap”. But here, people have to drive longer distances, have to drive long distances to their place of work, etc. The relative lack of public transportation leaves many with no other option.

    On the other hand, all those macho, wannabe tough-guy dudes driving around in their huge trucks with loud aftermarket exhaust systems etc. that get maybe 10 mpg. are seeing their fuel costs skyrocket. I don’t really feel sorry for them.

    The general public is not happy, but most appear blissfully ignorant of what is coming. And the MiniTrue Mass Media pretends everything is fine. Kinda like before the Crash of ’08, then after they all said “no one saw this coming”. Very sad that folks have short memories and few learn from the past. We don’t need no stinkin history attitude, ignorance is bliss.
34. Ann May 4, 2026 at 11:43 am

    Trump Threatens States That Don’t Rig Their Midterm Elections

    https://newrepublic.com/post/209895/trump-threatens-states-rig-midterm-elections

    Iran says it fired missiles at US warship to prevent it entering Hormuz

    https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/video/newsfeed/2026/5/4/iran-says-it-fired-missiles-at-us-warship-to-prevent-it-entering-hormuz
    1. JonnyJames May 4, 2026 at 11:50 am

       Even better idea; The Unhinged Emperor should declare that all political offices be auctioned off to the highest bidder, with the auctions controlled by him alone. All proceeds will go to offshore accounts in his name.

       Iran claims it hit US destroyer, UAE is claiming incoming missiles from Iran. Looks like an interesting day ahead.
35. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 12:24 pm

    Tankers on fire outside the UAE. Lots of fog of war here –

    “The UAE Defense Ministry said Iran had launched four cruise missiles, with three shot down and one falling into the sea. Authorities in the eastern emirate of Fujairah said an Iranian drone sparked a fire at a key oil facility. The British military reported two cargo vessels ablaze off the UAE.

    ~snip~

    The South Korean government said an explosion and fire had broken out aboard a South Korean-operated ship anchored in the strait off the UAE. No injuries were reported. It was not immediately known if the vessel was one of the burning ships reported by the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center.”
    1. hazelbee May 4, 2026 at 12:54 pm

       I was trying to make sense of this via the al jazeera breaking news feed.

       their summary just now wasn’t even making sense within the context of their own feed just a few hours apart!

       so confusing.

       bbc reports US military position, as does CNN. south china morning post anything to do with this is below the fold multiple pages down.
       1. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 1:16 pm

          Now seeing the South Korean ship mentioned in other sources –

          https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/05/04/seoul-says-explosion-and-fire-struck-south-korean-ship-in-strait-of-hormuz

          https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/south-korean-vessel-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz–fire-reported-o

          The Al Mayadeen link says a US frigate was struck, according to Fars –

          “Soon after, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that a US Navy frigate was struck by two missiles after ignoring repeated warnings issued by Iranian forces. According to the report, the vessel was operating near the Strait of Hormuz, in waters around the port of Jask.”

          I wasn’t able to access Fars to see what they had to say directly.
    2. Doggo May 4, 2026 at 1:26 pm

       Sounds like UAE decided to go all-in and pitch its lot with USA and Israel. They left OPEC, and now this.

       The S. Korean tanker anchored near UAE that caught on fire, I’m sure the Koreans are telling the truth and the ship is on fire. But it sounds to me like a false flag event that was started by USA, as I can’t see why Iranians would launch missiles or drones on a S. Korean ship that was currently anchored and not trying to run through the strait.

       UAE govt saying Iran attacked its civilian facilities also seems like a false flag event, probably dreamed up by USA. Gives them casus belli to drop bombs on Iran again, without running afoul of the 60-day war powers thingie. Trump said over the weekend that Operation Epic Fury was already over, we won and it ended before the 60 day limit. So this new thing, we are just defending our ally UAE who was attacked by Iran completely unprovoked, so we must defend UAE in a new operation that totally is not a part of or a result of Epic Fury.
       1. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 1:48 pm

          You might be on to something there. None of the reports I’m seeing say the South Korean tanker was attacked, just that an explosion occurred. Tasnim News doesn’t mention it at all that I could see, and you’d think they might take credit if it was an actual attack.

          From the Al Arabiya link –

          “The cause of the explosion and fire, as well as the specific extent of the damage, are currently being investigated,” it [South Korean foreign ministry] said.”

          And –

          ” “The Korean government will communicate closely with relevant countries regarding this matter and take necessary measures to ensure the safety of Korean vessels and crew members within the Strait of Hormuz,” the foreign ministry said on Monday.”

          If they really want to ensure safety, unhitching their horse from the oppressor’s wagon might be in order.

          As to why the US might think it needed a false flag to justify further bombing when they didn’t wait for an excuse the first few times is beyond me. But considering we’re in the stupidest timeline…
       2. Paradox of Unrealized Power May 4, 2026 at 2:33 pm

          “Gives them casus belli to drop bombs on Iran again, without running afoul of the 60-day war powers thingie. Trump said over the weekend that Operation Epic Fury was already over, we won and it ended before the 60 day limit. So this new thing, we are just defending our ally UAE who was attacked by Iran completely unprovoked, so we must defend UAE in a new operation that totally is not a part of or a result of Epic Fury.”

          Maybe, but the underlying reality is that the US and its ally are increasingly screwed every time there is a kinetic flare up. Being able to blame my neighbor for my house burning to the ground may be satisfying, but it still leaves me much worse off.

          Moreover, US (and allied) actions have been so monstrous over the past few years (and even the past few days and weeks) across just about every topic that pointing to someone else for starting the most recent flare up isn’t even going to gain them sympathy.
    3. Will May 4, 2026 at 1:34 pm

       If I’m understanding Nima correctly, the IRGC has expanded its zone of control to include most of the UAE’s coast outside the strait. They have a port there (Fujairah) which is the western terminus of a pipeline through which the UAE had been getting crude out the past few months. Starts at about 4:15

       https://www.youtube.com/live/wGws3SN4HcE?si=cGPsYqTQ3bT29lsf

       Makes sense that it’d be a South Korean ship that may have been hit because IIRC they were running around early on trying to secure supplies. They got a promise for the first 30 (?) million barrels exported by the emirates.
36. Ann May 4, 2026 at 12:51 pm

    As his plans fall apart, Trump rages and blusters through the night

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/plans-fall-apart-trump-rages-blusters-through-night-4396698

    Three Indian citizens wounded in Iranian drone attack on UAE oil facility

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895094

    US Admiral: Iran Launched Cruise Missiles at Our Ships, We Destroyed 6 Small Boats

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/cug7spvd4
    1. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 1:55 pm

       ‘As his plans fall apart, Trump rages and blusters through the night’
       “There are, in theory, almost no barriers between Trump and whatever he wants to achieve.”
       The article doesn’t say which theory it’s referring to. And given that it goes on to give examples of Trump being unable to achieve his whims and wishes, surely there’s something wrong with whichever theory the ipaper has in mind.
37. Ann May 4, 2026 at 12:56 pm

    U.S. military denies Iran’s claim it struck American warship in Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/iran-war-trump-strait-of-hormuz.html

    US official says China is ‘funding’ Iran, urges Beijing to help open Hormuz

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/us-official-says-china-is-funding-iran-urges-beijing-to-help-open-hormuz

    German defence ministry says no ‘definitive cancellation’ of US weapons deployment

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/german-defence-ministry-says-no-definitive-cancellation-us-weapons-deployment-2026-05-04/

    UAE says it intercepted Iranian missiles for first time since ceasefire began

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/iran-war-uae-trump-ceasefire-missiles.html

    Korean-operated vessel reports damage in Hormuz; no casualties

    https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10731161
    1. Martin Oline May 4, 2026 at 3:09 pm

       UAE says it intercepted Iranian missiles for first time since ceasefire began

       Did they use oil storage tanks to intercept those missiles?
38. Ethelred the Unready May 4, 2026 at 1:16 pm

    If this is true, it resolves several questions. First, it resolves the question that they are looking for a Gulf of Tonkin renamed Strait of Hormuz. Now those destroyers were not on a humanitarian mission wherever they were. Hence hence they are leftovers from the war. The destroyer has to be in the Gulf of Hormuz to call it the Gulf of Tonkin. Second, it resolves the question of the two US flagged ships that passed through the straight of Hormuz earlier today. They didn’t. It was those two destroyers. So we know where we’re at. Frantically searching for a cassus belli. But looking like idiots and probably unlikely to succeed. Trump will have to wear a wig soon.
    The IRGC said:

    “We fired warning shots using cruise missiles and drones at US destroyers attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz.

    We detected US destroyers in the Gulf of Oman that had turned off their radars in an attempt to enter the Strait of Hormuz. Direct warnings were issued to them immediately upon detection.”

    “No merchant vessel or oil tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past few hours.

    The statements by US officials are baseless and completely fabricated.

    Any other maritime movements that violate the stated principles of the IRGC Naval Forces will be subject to serious risks, and violating vessels will be stopped by force.

    Any attempt by the US to enter the Strait of Hormuz is considered a violation of the ceasefire and will be met with a decisive response by our naval forces.”
39. PVDSteve May 4, 2026 at 1:58 pm

    Medhurst’s continued insistence that this is all 5-D chess is pessimism appearing to be analysis. The US Navy has failed catastrophically to control one choke point against a country nowhere near as powerful militarily. How would is possibly be able to cover half a dozen choke points simultaneously against the largest Navy on earth? The obvious answer is that the military component to this supposed master plan is DOA with no hope of being resolved any time soon.

    Meanwhile, the push to monopolize global oil is just pushing countries around the world to massively increase investments in renewables. The rapid shift to PV, hydro, and nuclear energy will drastically reduce US influence over the next decade.

    The tighter the US empire tries to control and dominate the entire world, the faster it’s power slips away.
    1. ISL May 4, 2026 at 4:57 pm

       Underwear gnome theory of military conquest of the world (From Southpark).

       Step 1 – steal underwear
       Step 2 – magic
       Step 3 – get rich

       Brian Berletic suffers the same frame of mind – its funny when he has to share the stage with someone like KJ Noh, as he is forced to admit having a 50 year oil plan and implementing it successfully, and it working are different things.
    2. amfortas May 4, 2026 at 6:56 pm

       yeah, i meant to bring up the renewables thing…esp re: china…in the 1st coupla posts this am.
       ive been ruminating on china having built up so much excess capacity, such that a lot of mainstream econ people have been saying that theyre foolish and their collapse is therefore immanent.
       but thats applying usa corporate short termism to china’s strategic foresight.
       because now….everybody and their brother is gonna be rushing to china to obtain all that kit, and likely help to install and integrate it.
       i know i would be, if i had $, and if it was still legal.
       trump causing a general flight from fossil fuels wasnt on my bingo card,lol.
    3. Nusper May 4, 2026 at 7:10 pm

       Obviously they cannot militarily enforce that blockade against determined countermeasures.
       But that vaunted chinese navy has been a complete no show for now with little to nothing indicating that this will change any time soon, so they have good reason to be confident until further notice.
       Like fancy weapons of all kinds navies are meaningless unless and until they are actually deployed.

       China sadly has never really been a nation of warriors so DC calculates that they will at the end of the day show themselves to cowardly to risk a real fight, even though there chances of winning would be pretty excellent if they had the guts, simple as that.

       And they hope that chinese hesitation ensures that their economy will be too damaged before they ever get active.

       The US doesn’t really have the stomach for it either and would almost certainly blink first anyway, but without a serious challenge ever manifesting they comfortably win by default and can even rightly claim the bragging rights.

       Who would have expected such a a bizarre “world war III” between two main adversaries that are both nations of total cowards only a couple decades ago?

       And coward nation A winning against coward nation C because A can at least muster some pretend bravado which is enough when coward nation C can’t get up to do even that.

       Nobody will care afterwards when coward nation C whines that it totally could have won IF it had actually fought, not even if it is true.
40. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 2:25 pm

    Is Lindsay’s Graham’s mushmouth affliction spreading? I keep hearing more people pronouncing “Israel” as a two syllable word instead of the traditional three. Just heard Trita Parsi and Larry Johnson do it.

    Just hearing this mispronunciation increases my dislike the Zionist entity. However, if each lost syllable were to coincide with a loss of territory for Greater Israel, then I’m all for it, right down to the point that we start referring to the terrorist nation as ” * ” after it’s gone.
    1. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 3:22 pm

       Cambridge Dictionary seems to think two syllables is standard, though /eɪ/ can be treated as one or two syllables (audio available at website).
       UK/ˈɪz.reɪl/ Israel
       /ɪ/ as in ship
       /z/ as in zoo
       /r/ as in run
       /eɪ/ as in day
       /l/ as in look
       US/ˈɪz.reɪl/ Israel
       /ɪ/ as in ship
       /z/ as in zoo
       /r/ as in run
       /eɪ/ as in day
       /l/ as in look

       This Facebook video says it can be pronounced with two or three syllables.

       Personally, I’m surprised USAmericans don’t pronounce it with four or more syllables. They often make words like my and jobs polysyllabic!
       1. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 3:31 pm

          Well maybe we’re both right ;)

          According to this hymn I had hammered into my head from too many years of church, “-rael” is two syllables. But the whole word comes out as five syllables when sung – http://openhymnal.org/Pdf/O_Come_O_Come_Emmanuel-Veni_Emmanuel.pdf

          Either way, listening to Lindsay Graham is like the sound of fingers on a chalkboard.
          1. raspberry jam May 5, 2026 at 5:27 am

             I can’t speak to the 2 syllable pronunciation but I feel like if we saw a sea change in pronunciation in the US to how Arabic and Hebrew speakers pronounce it (3 syllables plus the glottal stop before the final syllable) that would portend much worse
       2. motorslug May 4, 2026 at 4:45 pm

          Too true, so sick of hearing literally everyone pronounce karaoke as if it had an ‘I’ in the word.
          kah-rah-oh-keh is correct. kar-ri-oh-kee is not!
          And Carioca is a song (or a resident of Rio).
41. nyleta May 4, 2026 at 3:42 pm

    Someone has been reading Patrick O’Brian late at night in the White House as they wait for Mr Trump to wind down from his day stimulants and get off Truth Social. While Mahan’s rule of 600 fighting ships to control the shipping lanes still holds, speed of ships is still much the same, a lot else has changed. Cutting out ships at harbour doesn’t work like in his books any more.

    Lost in all this is the Russian MOD calling for a precautionary evacuation of the centre of Kiev.
42. Ann May 4, 2026 at 3:57 pm

    Finnish parliament strikes down initiative aimed at restricting weapons purchases from Israel

    https://www.jpost.com/international/article-895091

    Trump again threatens entire nation of Iran saying country will be ‘blown off the face of the earth’

    https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-threats-b2970212.html
43. Jason Boxman May 4, 2026 at 4:49 pm

    The kinetics resume

    US used helicopters to destroy Iranian small boats – Centcom (BBC)

    US Central Command (Centcom) says it has used helicopters to destroy Iranian small boats.

    It follows US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US has struck seven Iranian small boats as it works to open the Strait of Hormuz.

    “Earlier today, Sea Hawk and U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopters were used to eliminate Iranian small boats threatening commercial shipping”, Centcom writes in a social media update.

    Iran is yet to respond to the claims.

    Oh; there will be a response, no doubt.
    1. Paradox of Unrealized Power May 4, 2026 at 5:15 pm

       These people are going to quickly make Kakistocracy a commonly used word in the English lexicon
    2. ilsm May 4, 2026 at 6:47 pm

       IRGC disputes the claim.

       NYT WSJ claimed the 2 commercial ships were contracted for CENTCOM logistics, there are 2 more CENTCOM logistics ships to be convoyed out.

       It was also reported that 2 USN destroyers engaged missile threats in the escape….

       Trump said Iran has no navy left.

       Immediate after action reports are usually quietly revised later.

       Reports of large fires at UAE refinery. Iran deny, could be spent or failed missile interceptors.
44. DG Bear May 4, 2026 at 4:58 pm

    A Victorian novel is not the way to discuss geopolitical events. But, the arts can throw light on the subject.

    hereware asked: “Who is Mr Rochester in your analogy?” Thank you for asking the question. I had not thought about it at all. It is fun to spin some insight from English Lit 101.

    In the novel Mr. Rochester ends up losing a hand and his eyesight in attempting to save his crazy wife from the fire she started in the attic.

    I do not think Mr. Rochester would be Israel because they are in the attic. Maybe, the Gulf monarchies, but Mr. Rochester is a good person, although he lied to Jane Eyre by not disclosing he had a wife locked up in the attic. There is nothing good about the Gulf monarchies; they are what our oligarchs want to be.

    I think I am going to go with India. They sort of lied to their BRICS compadres by not disclosing their close ties to Israel. They are going to suffer severe consequences from this debacle.

    There is no Jane Eyre, pure in heart and love. But, geopolitically Russia and China might let bygones be bygones.
    1. hereweare May 5, 2026 at 4:08 am

       Mr Rochester isn’t so unambiguously good in Wide Sargasso Sea.
       1. Yalt May 5, 2026 at 5:51 am

          And Mrs. Rochester is most definitely not Donald Trump.
45. johnnyme May 4, 2026 at 5:14 pm

    Maersk Ship Exits Hormuz Under U.S. Protection

    Maersk has confirmed that one of the vessels involved in Monday’s U.S.-escorted transits of the Strait of Hormuz was its U.S.-flagged roll-on/roll-off ship Alliance Fairfax, marking one of the clearest tests so far of Washington’s effort to reopen the waterway.

    In a statement, A.P. Moller–Maersk said the vessel—operated by Farrell Lines, a subsidiary of Maersk Line Limited—successfully exited the Persian Gulf on May 4 “under U.S. military protection,” completing the transit “without incident” with all crew safe.

    MarineTraffic.com has not updated the position of the Alliance Fairfax since the war started so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    1. Samuel Conner May 4, 2026 at 5:54 pm

       Per the article, “escorted” means “accompanied by US military assets”, presumably aircraft.

       As long as no-one shoots, this could work, though one would think that it would be putting a lot of wear and tear on the “military assets” involved.
    2. ilsm May 4, 2026 at 6:52 pm

       This is likely one of the two ships contracted to CENTCOM around which CENTCOM claimed shooting up six IRGC boats under destroyer air defense coverage.

       Fog of war.
46. ChrisFromGA May 4, 2026 at 5:37 pm

    Today on CNBS “Closing Hell”!

    Taco has entered the Strait of Debacle. Crude rises as his pathological ego grows even more dominant. Mid-term losses for the GOP along with ruined careers approach historic levels.

    Prediction: pain.
47. johnnyme May 4, 2026 at 6:45 pm

    Hormuz tensions drive aluminum surge, squeeze global autos with $5b cost

    According to the Financial Times (FT), the so-called Big Three—General Motors (GM), Ford, and Stellantis—said in their recent first-quarter earnings releases that this year’s raw material expense increases could add as much as $5 billion (about 7.38 trillion won) in extra burden. That is because tensions have escalated around the Strait of Hormuz amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict, disrupting global shipping and supply chains and pushing up prices of key materials such as aluminum, plastics, and paint in tandem.

    In fact, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have risen as much as 16% since the war. FT said that if the rise in aluminum prices persists, it could add $500 to $1,500 in expense per vehicle. Aluminum is a core material used throughout automobiles, including the body, engine, and doors.

    Link to the paywalled FT article.
48. johnnyme May 4, 2026 at 7:25 pm

    ‘It’s an elite matter’: UAE confirms it’s in talks for swap line loan with US

    The UAE confirmed on Monday that it is discussing a currency swap line with the US, framing it as part of entry into an “elite group” of US allies, as fresh Iranian air strikes roiled the country.

    “We have this discussion and conversation with many, it’s part of an elite group that the US is having this swap policy with. They are only having it with five countries,” UAE Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed al-Zeyoudi said at a conference in Abu Dhabi.

    “Being part of that group means that transactions… trade, investments between both nations reach a level where that swap is highly needed…so it is an elite matter, [it] is not about bailing out,” he told attendees at the “Make It In The Emirates” event, a government initiative to encourage manufacturing in the UAE.

    Zeyoudi’s comments are the first public confirmation from the UAE that it is in talks with the US for access to emergency dollar loans.

    Zeyoudi’s framing of the deal also sought to tamp down any rumours that the UAE’s finances were shakier than they might appear.
    1. Acacia May 4, 2026 at 8:15 pm

       Hmm… “part of an elite group”… i.e., upgrading from Bronze to Gold Plan vassal state status ?
49. bertl May 4, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    What the hell is wrong with Americans? Trump is a weakling who has been allowed to become over powerful because of a Congress which has failed the most basic test of self-government by refusing to put a leash on this dangerous, desperate, deranged fantasist with a peculiarly depraved view of the world which makes Trump a danger to himself, the US and the basic realities the rest of us live in. Don’t the American people have a responsibility to defend their Republic against governance by a genocidal foreign state and the Epsteinian oligarchy financing and propping up a President who has become little more than a mad dog?
    1. Acacia May 4, 2026 at 8:50 pm

       IMHO, the Republic is long gone, just as Franklin warned when he said “…if you can keep it.”

       In its place, there has been a “national security state” a.k.a. an Empire, and now a “pirate state” (h/t Richard Medhurst).

       What are the citizens to do against the Epsteinian oligarchy? The American people aren’t even on the same page about that, e.g., tens of millions of them still clearly believe that everything would be find if Trump were simply replaced by Harris or some other DNC stooge.

       Most of my USian friends only seem to want a kinder, gentler Epsteinian oligarchy.
       1. Jonathan Holland Becnel May 4, 2026 at 9:40 pm

          #AMERICANREVOLUTION2
          1. ambrit May 4, 2026 at 11:32 pm

             I’d say that the American War Between the States was the AmRev#2. In it, the industrialists came out on top versus the plantocracy. The “Toilers in the Vineyards” became the “Toilers in the Infernal Factories.”
             Hopefully, we will have an #AmRev3. The hard part will be making it serve the people rather than the oligarchs yet again.
             It puts me in mind of the old Zen saying: “If you meet the ‘Masters of the Universe’ on the road, kill them.”
             Stay safe in the Big Easy.
    2. Ben Joseph May 4, 2026 at 9:53 pm

       Obviously a strong executive must suit the oligarchs. Lack of check and balance? Saves on blackmail? Makes occasional assassination less foreboding? Maybe all this and more.
50. Tom Stone May 4, 2026 at 9:12 pm

    There is no avenue for peaceful change in the USA and there hasn’t been for decades.
    It’s a Surveillance State with an astounding disparity of wealth, slavery is back, it’s called the “Prison Industrial Complex”. torture has been normalized as “Enhanced Interrogation” and Bribery has been legalized for long enough to pervade the political system.
    Why hasn’t the public risen up to change this?
    The most expert and pervasive propaganda system in history is a big reason for that.
    What’s coming is societal collapse and eventually warlordism, the Rule of Law and Due Process have been abandoned and we are still at the “Slowly” part of “Slowly, then all at once”.
    How much longer?
    Longer than any sane person would expect and the triggering event might be seemingly small.
51. Ann May 4, 2026 at 9:27 pm

    Tom Stone:

    Trump’s Justice Department in Crisis as Thousands of Lawyers Quit

    https://newrepublic.com/post/209914/donald-trump-justice-department-thousands-lawyers-quit

    Arrests in massive human trafficking sting connected to Trump, Jan. 6

    https://thehill.com/opinion/lindseys-lens/5862476-trafficking-sting-political-extremism/

    The Republican Party may not survive the Trump day of reckoning

    https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/politics/5860015-trump-republican-party-future/
    1. hk May 5, 2026 at 3:49 am

       You gotta wonder, if GOP goes, if the Dems as currently constituted, could survive…
       1. Uwe Ohse May 5, 2026 at 5:08 am

          There is no reason to believe that any political party will survive forever.

          There are plenty reasons to believe they don’t.
          A political party is a framework for the politicians involved in it, and restricts them to party goals in exchange to services (coordination) or even money.
          If those politicians find a party better suited to their goals, they’ll change. If enough members change to another party, the losing party doesn’t survive (of course a party will also fail when the voters decide so). That is how it has to be in a democracy.

          Many of the parties involved in governments of the western democracies managed to manipulate theirs countries laws to make it harder to replace these parties. The US has these strange PACs and those unbelievable expensive election campaigns, which ensures that the elected US politicians know how to take bribes (sorry, that’s how i see it), while Germany has this wonderful system guaranteeing any has-been politician a good job in one the state owned companies, a political institute or a supervisory board, which absolutely guarantees that almost no politician will ever risk to alienate their parties boards.
          But all that doesn’t make it impossible to replace parties. It just makes it harder. FDP springs to mind (SPD tries to follow).

          But that doesn’t mean that other parties profiting from the system also have to fall when one falls. A party only dies if there is an alternative.
52. johnnyme May 4, 2026 at 9:59 pm

    2 U.S. Navy destroyers transit Strait of Hormuz after dodging Iranian onslaught

    Washington — Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials who spoke to CBS News under condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.

    The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage.

    Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck.
    1. Paradox of Unrealized Power May 4, 2026 at 10:41 pm

       Maybe possible, I guess, but I am personally very skeptical, if for no other reason that the USN would be nuts to risk two destroyers “navigating an Iranian barrage” just to get a headline

       But ok, if they entered the Persian Gulf, now what? Do they just loiter around Doha or Dammam??

       But ok, maybe they want to and are able to run a gauntlet to prove a point… Is this the new bar for what now constitutes a “win” for the US???
       1. johnnyme May 4, 2026 at 11:15 pm

          I’m also very skeptical. I haven’t found the official Iranian response to the reported crossing but I did find this:

          Iranian media says US killed 5 civilians in botched Hormuz Strait operation

          Iranian state media has reported that six so-called Iranian small boats targeted by the US military on Monday in the Strait of Hormuz were not IRGC-affiliated, but civilian vessels carrying goods and passengers, and five people were killed in the attack.

          A military official told the Tasnim news agency that, after US reports of the attacks, an investigation was carried out by Iranian authorities, who found that US forces had “attacked and fired upon two small cargo boats carrying civilians that were moving from Khasab on the coast of Oman towards the Iranian coast”.
    2. Alice X May 5, 2026 at 1:07 am

       A CBS News report. Do they even do news? These days.
    3. Acacia May 5, 2026 at 1:10 am

       Sure. Let two ships pass. Make a weak show of force.

       Embolden them to send a few more ships. Then a few more.

       Then sink the lot of them with missiles.
       1. Paradox of Unrealized Power May 5, 2026 at 2:05 am

          I don’t think it would embolden them (to be clear, I doubt think this even actually occurred–just like the mine clearing announced a couple of weeks ago and allies amazed at the US winning so much and Venezuela now pumping 100vmillion barrels and whatever else gets spewed out on a daily basis).

          By the US (CENTCOM’s) own admission, “U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.”

          If this is what is required to get two destroyers through the straits (forget about how to get them to get back out, and forget about the vulnerability of these “support assets” themselves), nobody is emboldened to do anything. But again, even if this is true, it is a pathetically small “win” in the grand scheme of things that does not materially change anything–not even the willingness of others to follow suit.

          The fact that CENTCOM is so blatantly lying about such an absurdly small fictitious victory tells you how pathetic this entire operation is and how little hopes the US has of getting anything out of it.

          Meanwhile, the sands in the hourglass continue to fall, the energy crunch gets ever more certain, and an extremely hard shift to the far left and far right parties around the world becomes increasingly inevitable.

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