Links 5/4/2026

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1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 7:17 am

   ‘Ethan Levins 🇺🇸
   @EthanLevins2
   Fox News is telling Americans that Iran is strapping suicide bombs to dolphins.
   Who believes this propaganda anymore?’

   Wait! No! OMG that’s Flipper. When did he flip to the dark side?

   Hopefully that does not mean that US Navy ships will be ordered to machine-gun any dolphins that they see in the water ‘out of an abundance of caution.’
   1. ambrit May 4, 2026 at 7:41 am

      I kid you not; the US Navy experimented with the exact same tactic back in the 1960s. A lot of the work was done at the University of Miami oceanic research centre on Virginia Key south of Miami Beach.
      Don’t worry about the tender feelings of low level US Navy personnel. A medium sized explosion in the water near any aquatic creature, (including those pesky Terran humans,) will disable or kill said watery interlopers.
      Stay safe. Do the backstroke.
      1. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 11:41 am

         It’s always projection with these accusations. One report on this that I noticed over the last few days even made the claim that these were dolphins trained by Russia in the early Aughts and later given to Iran. Blaming Russia is another tell that it’s complete BS.
         1. ambrit May 4, 2026 at 8:22 pm

            Oh yes, and those ageing X-VMF dolphins will squeak at you: “I’m getting too old for this. Give it a rest already.”
   2. Henry Moon Pie May 4, 2026 at 7:55 am

      How can anyone doubt “reporting” from the former Jersey prom king, Jesse? He’s always struck me as the guy who rigs the bucket in the prom scene from Carrie.
   3. CynBar May 4, 2026 at 8:06 am

      See Day of the Dolphin. “Fa laves Pa”
   4. Dr. John Carpenter May 4, 2026 at 11:32 am

      Well, this has been tried before: https://youtu.be/INFavIUmhcE?si=dTruB9JnjiG0db7o
   5. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 11:53 am

      It’s hardly a new story.
      Iran buys kamikaze dolphins 8 March, 2000
   6. ThirtyOne May 4, 2026 at 2:33 pm

      “Why would Iran, which already operates UUVs and UAVs weighing up to 9 tons, resort to using dolphins?
      The arrival of underwater drones has completely eliminated any need for dolphin programs.”

      https://nitter.poast.org/pati_marins64/status/2050965236321009923#m
      1. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 2:39 pm

         I’m not agreeing with Fox News and saying that Iran is strapping suicide bombs to dolphins, but they’re probably harder to detect than drones, especially 9 ton drones.
2. Wukchumni May 4, 2026 at 7:56 am

   California will soon have more than 300 data centers. Where will they get their water? Grist
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   A weird winter in that the snow melted off oh so quickly in the Sierra, leaving our reservoirs on the full side, so that’s where you get water for the data centers-they simply draw them down, and nobody notices all that much until they’ve gone tilt and then its tantamount to crying over spilled over AI ilk.
   1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 8:28 am

      Maybe they will drink Colorado’s milkshake-

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5d9BrLN5K4 (32 secs)
   2. mrsyk May 4, 2026 at 9:30 am

      I get the feeling most “planned” data centers won’t make the groundbreaking stage. Lots of headwinds. The article on America’s Electricity Gap near the top of the page is a good companion piece. From that article comes this philosophical gem,
      The greatest problem with solar is its temporal inconsistency, read “ the greatest problem with mankind…”
      1. MicaT May 4, 2026 at 9:54 am

         It’s a good article. Gets most data correct. Misses a few points which is transmission bottlenecks as a major factor in price increases and profiteering.

         California is has reduced its gas consumption by over 25% in 1 year because of battery deployment.

         Battery manufacturing has grown dramatically, prices have dropped significantly, chemistries are way better. And prices will continue to drop because of efficiencies as manufacturers scale up.

         Also solar is winning besides cost because of their rapid deployment and backlogs in getting turbines and the gas supplies to run them. As much as Trump wants coal, hard to see anyone investing in new coal power plants.
      2. converger May 4, 2026 at 8:05 pm

         I’m getting a little tired of the “temporal inconsistency” argument. Solar plus battery is still cheaper than fossil fuels or nuclear, even in the U.S. where it costs 2x the rest of the world, and even in the US where natural gas costs a fifth as much as LNG in Europe.
   3. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 11:59 am

      Data centres don’t eat food, so surely all the water California wastes on growing crops to feed mere people could be diverted to a better cause.
3. Samuel Conner May 4, 2026 at 8:10 am

   The automated abobe construction article is very encouraging. Since the mid-2000s I’ve been intrigued by ‘stabilized earth’ (basically low-strength concrete made of sand, clay and a little Portland cement, filled into forms and rammed) and “strawbale” construction techniques, both of which have low material cost and relatively low skill requirements.

   It’s encouraging to see movement toward cost reduction of adobe construction.
   1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 8:25 am

      I’m just imagining a future system where a guy in the US can go online to a Chinese company, select a style of home that he wants, select everything form the fittings to the windows and doors, and then wait delivery for what he ordered in one or two shipping containers with detailed instructions for American builders to put it all together. Not such a wild thought as in the American west in the early 20th century, people could order kit homes from the east which would be delivered by rail for construction on that family farm or wherever-

      https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/sears-catalog-mail-order-houses-photos/
      1. LawnDart May 4, 2026 at 9:24 am

         In the same vein..

         Re; Tired of high costs, some Americans are importing homes straight from China

         Woah… THIS might be something worth looking into.

         I’m going to check out the rest of the website later today to see if anything else catches the eye.
         1. TimH May 4, 2026 at 10:24 am

            California ADU law streamlines the construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and Junior ADUs (JADUs) to increase housing density, requiring local agencies to approve them within 60 days. Key 2026 rules allow at least 850–1000 sq. ft. for units, restrict setbacks to 4 feet, limit parking requirements, and generally prohibit owner-occupancy requirements.

            That’s the Goog AI summary, but even if some of the details above are not quite accurate, CA must be the prime destination for cheap prefab metal houses from CN.
      2. wol May 4, 2026 at 10:43 am

         There’s a Sears bungalow in the city near where I live: https://housetoplans.com/sears-1920-s-craftsman-bungalow-house-plans/
      3. Michael Fiorillo May 4, 2026 at 10:52 am

         We have friends who currently live in the Sears mail order home their grandparents built in The Bronx, USA! Its materials and craftsmanship far exceed anything you’d likely find today.
   2. TomDority May 4, 2026 at 9:30 am

      To me, it’s discouraging to see movement toward cost reduction of adobe construction. Movement toward cost reduction in farming, general building, factory work etc, represents a consolidation of profits going uphill…economic participants earning income to buy products going down… Maybe I am a bit backwards but, their comes a point of cost reductions that reduce large swarths of the population to debt peonage.
      Efficiency is measured in short termism with currency as the only measure along with planned obsolescence designed to increase repeat sales of products and an almost complete disregard to the wasted resources and input energy to build these durable goods. I would think that to buy a gadget for 10 cu (currency units) once in todays CU and it lasts for 10 terms… is many times more efficient than buying that enshitified gadget 4 times to achieve 10 terms and further, that the first buy at 10cu is going to be 11cu at second buy 12cu at third and 13cu at 4…. If I automate the production and take most the profits and labors share of income — who is going to buy.
      In the financial engineering department – where no real tangible capital and actual labor input costs create fictitious gains which are also tax preferred (tax efficient) and used to load up overhead costs onto …say construction or farming, or etc…well it all becomes a downward spiral for the humans and a maximization for the few current owners .

      Well I apologize for going on this riff…it was not my intention when I started.
      Rammed earth construction is really cool in a lot of respects… a few books showcase some very beautiful esthetics with advantages in the mechanicals, durability and longevity – fit for purpose
      1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 9:35 am

         With adobe construction, what is the roof and the floor made out of?
         1. Mel May 4, 2026 at 10:32 am

            Floor is packed earth.
            Roof will be made of clay over wooden poles and brush that humanoid roots will scrounge from the countryside.

            I look forward to the kitchen of the future where humanoid robots drop hot rocks from the fire into pots of food.
            1. MicaT May 4, 2026 at 11:06 am

               Rammed earth is not adobe construction.

               The issue with rammed earth and adobe is insulation or lack there of. Yes you have mass but it only works in places where it’s not super cold for long periods without sun. So the SW it does work. Most other locations not.
               And not good for earthquake zones.
               Floors of earth homes don’t have to be earth but any material.
               Roofs can be earth covered but of course you need strong wood or steel beams to support the weight.

               There is a reason it’s not used much, super expensive to heat
            2. Oregon Lawhobbit May 4, 2026 at 4:20 pm

               Floor is packed earth.

               And, as the punchline of the joke goes, “You kids stop tracking dirt out of the house!”

               Maybe add in some earth-bermed sheltering to help out on the thermals….
4. Samuel Conner May 4, 2026 at 8:22 am

   Regarding the end-of-post tweet about the “equities valuation to GDP ratio”, this strikes me as somewhat artificial, since GDP is actual output but total market valuation is impossible to realize (valuations would crash if a significant portion of owners attempted to convert paper profits into cash in hand). Also, this is comparison of a “stock” with a “flow”, the interpretation of which, I think, is problematic.

   I think a more useful ratio might be “actual income generated by private equities holdings” compared with GDP. Given absurd present market valuations, the trend of this over time might look less extreme, though I’m sure it would still indicate increasing inequality over time.
5. brian wilder May 4, 2026 at 8:23 am

   Inventing the bus:

   some key inventions are business models rather than physical technology. Wheeled vehicles had existed for millennia before the brilliance of Pascal and the fluke of Baudry’s shuttle generated the idea of bus timetabling

   Not touched upon in the article but I will mention it: common carriage on fixed timetables can entail a problematic cost structure: an optimal fare may not cover fixed costs or provide a return on sunk cost investment. A bus can only get so big, limited by the clearance of the way, but in other modes with large economies of scale in the vehicle, the business model carries the seeds of its own destruction.
   1. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 9:28 am

      Of course it took modern management to really screw things up. Years ago in the UK, the drivers of a bus company were told not to stop to pick up passengers so that they could stick to their timetables better. True story that.
   2. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 12:09 pm

      “an optimal fare may not cover fixed costs or provide a return on sunk cost investment”
      I don’t get you. In what sense is the fare optimal?
      1. You're soaking in it? May 4, 2026 at 1:30 pm

         The optimal fare is zero. A society runs public transportation as.a service, and if it is wise recoups the cost from taxing excess rents / land values in the vicinity of the service stops and routes. JMO
         1. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 1:59 pm

            I agree, and nearly wrote as much, but I doubt it’s what brian wilder meant.
         2. brian wilder May 4, 2026 at 2:11 pm

            that can be part of it — the endgame of public transit
6. upstater May 4, 2026 at 8:50 am

   Re. Stoller and Spirit Airlines… he is right on many points about competition, but misses a couple of important points. First, loyalty programs and credit cards of the larger carriers contribute more to profits than actually flying people (I believe it has been reported here). Secondly, the big 3 are all members of worldwide alliances with foreign carriers and also have joint ventures across the Atlantic and Pacific. These feed domestic routes with international passengers. Spirit had none of these.

   Regulation had fixed fares and more or less allowable profits. Carriers competed on service quality. There were interline agreements and accommodations for missed connections. It has been a race to the bottom ever since deregulation.
   1. Carolinian May 4, 2026 at 9:50 am

      The Stoller is excellent and he does say but not expand on how the four major airlines are now dependent on credit card and frequent flyer sidelines. Of course it all may be moot as jet fuel becomes scarce and its price leads to changes in the middle class jet set lifestyle.

      That said, while the pre deregulation industry was stable my memory is that flying back then was more of a luxury good because prices were kept high. But now that AGW has come to the fore perhaps that was a good thing.
      1. TimH May 4, 2026 at 10:30 am

         I use airmiles for nearly-free biz class tix. What was easy 25 years ago, takes a lot of time and schedule flexibility just to get one seat, and you have to use the miles for the seat, not the upgrade.

         You used to be able to buy United Y class tix over the phone with approved upgrade to biz using airmiles, but now the upgrades are approved in the few days before flight based on status, so only the highest status get them.
7. But What Do I Know? May 4, 2026 at 9:17 am

   Re: Keep the wolves away–for a guy who is quite sure he knows what DT and the Chinese leadership are thinking, he doesn’t appear to know the difference between “rein” and “reign.”
8. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 9:40 am

   “Japan to purchase Russian crude oil amid global energy crisis”

   This must be making Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi grind her teeth. She really wanted to get heavy with Russia and to start pushing against them. Now she has to make nice.
9. The Rev Kev May 4, 2026 at 9:59 am

   “Thanks, but no thanks. That’s enough. Stop!”

   This is low this. Even for the Trump regime though it began under Biden in 2023. So they are making up procedures where kids born to Russian Embassy staff are automatically registered as US citizens, even though laws and procedures going back decades says not so. How does this play out? So imagine after his posting is finished, a staff member and his family get ready to return to Russia. And at that stage the US steps in and says that they can’t take a US citizen out of the country meaning their son or daughter. But that the rest of the family must leave the US.
   1. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 12:19 pm

      “Birthright Citizenship has to do with the babies of slaves, not Chinese Billionaires who have 56 kids, all of whom “become” American Citizens. One of the many Great Scams of our time! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
      https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116325785902961629
10. ciroc May 4, 2026 at 10:02 am

    >What Did the Golden Lion Die Of? On Judgment and Disavowal at the Venice Biennale

    Had the Venice Biennale excluded only Russia, this column would never have been written. The problem is that they excluded both *Israel* and Russia, not because of an obscure Mussolini-era law.
11. mrsyk May 4, 2026 at 10:17 am

    Climate, regarding “After 37 Years, the World’s Longest-Running Soil Warming Experiment Uncovers a Startling Climate Secret”, of course, “startling” = bad, the secret being once thought permanently sequestered carbon is released as soil warms. “A feedback loop with global stakes” indeed.
12. Nicholas May 4, 2026 at 10:18 am

    Nice antidote du jour! It appears to be a Goniobranchus/Chromodoris or maybe Hypselodoris nudibranch? Hard to tell without location. They feed on sponges, from which they obtain chemicals that make the nudibranchs toxic. The purpose of the bright coloration is aposematism (the warning of danger to potential predators).
13. flora May 4, 2026 at 10:56 am

    re: The invisible force making food less nutritious – WaPo

    Considering plants do better in a high CO2 environment, (it’s what they “breathe”), not sure I buy the Wapo’s argument.
    Imo, it’s more likely the soil degradation from over use of pesticides and commercial fertilizers by Big Ag.
    See for examples:

    Pesticide Degradation: Impacts on Soil Fertility and Nutrient Cycling
    https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/12/8/272

    and

    How Industrial Agriculture Affects Our Soil
    https://foodprint.org/issues/how-industrial-agriculture-affects-our-soil/

    People have known about this degradation for a very long time, but there is money in Big Ag to support these practices. Much easier to blame CO2 for this lost of nutrients, right? Let’s Big Ag off the hook. (Did someone say “Roundup”? / ;)

    Of course, I know the Wapo would never mislead me. / ;)
    1. Spastica Rex May 4, 2026 at 11:18 am

       Food crop cultivars are bred for profitability, not nutritional value (or taste, for that matter, except in as much as required for sales).

       I have 6 different apple varieties in my little home orchard, only one of which has commercial value.
    2. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 12:38 pm

       It’s not the Washington Post’s argument; it’s Leiden University’s. It looks like they meta-analysed experiments directly comparing identical crops grown under different CO₂ levels. I think, though from skimming the paper I haven’t found it neatly and explicitly stated, the experiments made sure the soils in question were the same in each pair (current ambient CO₂ vs. elevated levels).
       “Inclusion criteria were edible parts of crops grown at two or more CO2 levels, direct measurements of one or more minerals at two or more CO2 levels, and reported results given as either absolute concentrations or relative change.”
       https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.70568
    3. Ken Murphy May 4, 2026 at 2:56 pm

       One of the reasons I advocate for raw regolith exports from the Moon to Earth is because of the trace elements distributed throughout the regolith from aeons of asteroid impacts.
       Some think this is why Dr. Walkinshaw saw such a big difference in response during plant growth experiments back in the 70s from those plants grown with regolith added. Trace elements long sucked out of our terrestrial soils by millennia of effectively industrial farming.
       Our Moon, it’s got what plants crave.

       [FWIW, don’t ever listen to experiments where they say they used regolith simulant to test plant growth. Not what it’s for. It was first created as JSC-1 by Dr. Carter at UT Dallas for engineering studies. How the regolith would chew up gears and get into seals and other annoyances. He gave lectures at my annual Moon Day event in Dallas until he passed, and I asked him about this specifically. Later generations of simulant have mixed things up a bit to allow for highland vs. mare related variances, but fundamentally all of the simulants will lack the trace elements delivered by asteroids vaporizing on impact and that vapor settling onto the surrounding terrain. Most biological experiments that use simulant are a waste of money. Exceptions being things like respiratory response to those tiny shards; think nasty sudden onset bad hayfever. Much mucus and phlegm. Can’t recommend. Also how the shards tear up blood vessels would be relevant. But plant growth? Bubba please]
    4. debug May 4, 2026 at 7:54 pm

       Makes perfect sense to me. It’s like oxygen toxicity. Too much of a good thing can be bad.

       https://www.sciencefocus.com/the-human-body/why-does-breathing-pure-oxygen-kill-you

       Or check Wikipedia on “oxygen toxicity.”

       And IIRC this is not the first time this excess CO2 for plants experiment has been run and come to the same conclusion.

       Increased CO2 accelerates plant growth but the plant material generated ends up having more fiber and structural components and less nutrients per amount of plant matter. This is not the result of soil depletion, but because the plant builds tissue faster and incorporates fewer random micronutrients per unit of plant mass because it’s assembling fixed-composition structural components so quickly.

       A pound of cabbage grown in 1950’s level CO2 will grow more slowly and incorporate more nutrients than a pound of 2026 cabbage. In today’s system, that’s a good thing. Quicker harvest and less food value… It’s the enshi___fication of the very food that we eat.
14. Jason Boxman May 4, 2026 at 1:01 pm

    ‘The Death Zone’: How Russia Is Luring Africans to Ukraine (NY Times)

    A growing number of men across the continent say they are being promised jobs in Russia, only to be forced into the war. Some go as mercenaries, but many more are drawn unwittingly.

    I guess Russia is losing

    A growing number of Africans are ending up on the front lines of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Some go there willingly as mercenaries, but many more are like Mr. Kamau, young men lured by the promise of ordinary civilian jobs — from bodyguards to line cooks — only to be forced into joining Russian forces in battle.

    A string of fly-by-night companies have been set up across the continent to recruit the men. The companies often appear as travel agencies or job placement firms and advertise on WhatsApp or Telegram.

    The New York Times interviewed several victims and recruiters. The interviews suggest that the recruiters do not work directly with the Defense Ministry in Moscow. Contracts seen by The Times were in Russian, meaning the Africans could not read them.

    It isn’t a huge number of people

    It is unclear how many men have been falsely recruited from Africa, though the authorities in at least nine countries have reported cases. And in Kenya, the National Intelligence Service found that around 1,000 Kenyans had gone to Russia and ended up in Ukraine so far. Only 30 of them have returned alive. To curb the number of men being caught in the dragnet, the government said it had bolstered checks on young men leaving the country on international flights.

    it’s basically human traffickers

    Advertisements for Russian military service have flooded African social media over the past year, some promising monthly salaries of up to $3,000, lump-sum payments of $18,000 and even Russian citizenship after six months of service. Middlemen looking to cash in have turned these calls for Russian military service into business opportunities.
    1. lyman alpha blob May 4, 2026 at 2:48 pm

       Saw some other ridiculous headline earlier today about Russia “losing”. I assume it’s more USian projection propaganda.
15. hereweare May 4, 2026 at 3:52 pm

    White House Considers Vetting A.I. Models Before They Are Released NYT
    Vetting for cybersecurity risks, as per the article, or to check they praise Trump sufficiently sycophantically?
    1. ambrit May 4, 2026 at 8:30 pm

       AI Model. Does that include Melania?
16. Jason Boxman May 4, 2026 at 7:18 pm

    This timeline is pretty lit

    National Mall Shooting (NY Times)

    Secret Service agents on Monday exchanged gunfire with an armed man near the Washington Monument, hitting a bystander, officials said.

    The suspect, who was not publicly identified, was transported to a hospital and placed in police custody, Matt Quinn, deputy director of the Secret Service, told reporters during a news conference.

    A teenage bystander was also hit in the crossfire and transported to the hospital, he added.

    Mr. Quinn said that after agents approached the armed suspect he ran off and then shot at them. The agents fired back and then apprehended the man, he said. Soon after, the motorcade of Vice President JD Vance passed the scene.

    The shooting came less than two weeks after a gunman stormed a security checkpoint at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner and shot a Secret Service agent in an attack officials said was targeting administration officials.

    On Monday, President Trump was holding an event at the White House around the time of the shooting. The Secret Service ordered reporters who were on the North Lawn of the White House to go into the press briefing room.

    The Metropolitan Police Department said in a social media post that they were on the scene and that roads in the area would be closed for several hours.

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