Category Archives: Investment outlook

Wolf Richter: Declining Productivity Bodes Ill for Growth and Jobs

Why worries about falling US productivity are well-founded.

Big Oil Increasingly Funding Dividends With Borrowing

Borrowing to prop up dividends…what could go wrong?

European Bank Shares Fall Out of Bed as Monte dei Paschi Rescue Fails to Reassure

Investors in European bank shares are in a bit of a panic, and for good reason.

Dumb Money Watch: ZIRP-Starved Insurers Beefing Up in Lending as Banks Exit the Pool

Insurers are going long risk at one of the worst possible junctures.

Oil Industry About To Be Burned Again By Fall In Oil Prices

Easy access to capital has driven oil prices lower and is likely to do again as E&P’s directly invest in more rigs ahead of demand.

Bullish Economists Are So Yesterday

The confidence fairy is having trouble getting liftoff.

Is Brexit Moment a Lehman Moment? Fear Factor in Financial Crises

Comparing the market reaction to Brexit with key events during the crisis.

CalPERS Announces Preliminary Returns of 0.6% When Target is 7.5% (Updated)

CalPERS posts crappy results and its disclosure isn’t too hot either.

OC Register: CalPERS Expected to Show Multi-Billion Loss for Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2016

CalPERS at best laid a big goose egg for its 2015-2016 results. It remains in denial about its return prospects, to the detriment of beneficiaries and taxpayers.

Regulator Warns Commercial Real Estate Bubble Is Biggest US Bank Risk

By the time regulators start warning of risk, as the OCC is now in commercial real estate, it’s often too late.

China Destabilizes Global Economy by Exporting Deflation Through Currency Devaluation

China is behaving badly by trying to maintain growth at the cost of worsening deflation in the rest of the world.

Wolf Richter: The Big Unravel – US Commercial Bankruptcies Skyrocket

Commercial bankruptcies rose at a much bigger clip in early 2016 than in recent years. How worried should we be?

Hedge Fund Shakeout Continues

The hedge fund industry has been bloodied but is far from bowed.

More Collateral Damage From Negative Interest Rates (Updated and Corrected)

Spain demonstrates some of the costs and dislocations created by negative interest rate policies.

Bond Market Flight to Safety as Investors Sweat Over Brexit Risk, Wobbly US Economy, Negative Rates

Investors got a big dose of bad news about the economy and geopolitics and reacted accordingly.