Links 4/6/2026

Artemis 2 LIVE: Artemis 2 astronauts ready for historic moon flyby Space.com

Cruise ship caught on reef off tiny Fiji island where Cast Away filmed The Guardian

Milwaukee mass timber project, billed as nation’s tallest, reportedly faces foreclosure Multifamily Dive

How citations ruined science David Oks

Climate/Environment

Study shows thawing permafrost releases much more greenhouse gas than expected Earth.com

Climate experts say spring is coming earlier. How will that affect agriculture and ecosystems? Grist

Too Successful to See How Much Trouble They’re In. The Snap Forward

Google Is Considering Natural Gas Without Carbon Capture in Its AI Data Center Strategy Distilled

America’s Federal Emergency Response Is Currently Led By A Guy Who Insists God Teleported Him To A Waffle House Jalopnik

Pandemics

Long COVID disability burden in US adults Nature

The Human Cost of Failing to Name COVID ‘Airborne’ The Tyee

China?

When Non-Interference Is No Longer Enough: A Qualified Case for Chinese “Interventionism 2.0” Sinification

Syraqistan

What the Hell Happened with the Rescue of the F-15E WSO in Iran? Larry Johnson

It’s Official: US Boots-On-Ground Deep Inside Iran Amidst Another Day of Humiliating Losses Simplicius

***

War with Iran: The Outcome is Predictable—but It Remains to be Seen just How Deep the Blood Will be Through Which the World Will Be Wading. Sonar21

Went way over my head:

Trump White House Pushes Satellite Firm to Withhold All Images of Iran War Common Dreams

U.S. Israeli Bombing of Iran is Causing an Environmental Catastrophe Covert Action Magazine

Confirmed: United States Sent ‘A Lot Of Guns’ To Rioters In Iran Prior To Full Scale War. The Dissident

Old Blighty

British Intel’s Secret Lebanese Panopticon Kit Klarenberg

European Disunion

German males under 45 may need military approval for long stays abroad BBC

Hungary places TurkStream pipeline under military protection after Serbia explosives scare Daily News Hungary

Hungarian PM faces ‘false flag’ claims after Serbia says explosives found near pipeline The Guardian

New Not-So-Cold War

One dead after Ukrainian drone attacked grain vessel in Azov sea – official RT

Stochastic terrorism in Russia Events in Ukraine

Russian government judo-chops internet & cows Edward Slavsquat

South of the Border

U.S. Moves to Secure Venezuela’s Gold as Influence Deepens After Intervention Oil Price

Spook Country

Hired Killers The After-Action Report

Trump 2.0

He’s Not Grifting Anymore. He’s Just Taking It. Meidas+

IRS adds Palantir tech to find tax cheats The Street

Democrats Suck

House Democrats Have Moved to the Right Since 2018 Left Notes

This Democratic governor is touting her role in the Iran war Politico

Police State Watch

Exclusive: FBI’s New Political Pre-Crime Center Ken Klippenstein

Three Hundred Habeas Cases in Which the Government Has Defied Court Orders Lawfare

DHS LAUNCHES MASSIVE “LESS LETHAL” CHEMICAL WEAPONS BUYING SPREE The Intercept

AI

The back story behind the first “$1.8 Billion” dollar “AI Company” Gary Marcus

The case for taxing AI slop Elysian

It’s open season for refusing AI Blood in the Machine

The Inevitability of the AI Depression Charles Hugh Smith

Healthcare?

Kill switches, guardrails: The raging debate over healthcare AI agents Becker’s Hospital Review

Yes, Therapy Sessions Are Being Used to Train AI Matt Stoller

Economy

Gulf Funds Are Recalibrating American Investments, Including Backing for Paramount Merger, as Iran War Rages On Drop Site

Economics Has Lulled Us Into a False Sense of Security Steve Keen

Global Fuel Shortage Pushes Governments Toward Demand Controls OilPrice

Naval Expert: The U.S. Knew Iran Would Close Hormuz American Conservative

Jamie Dimon says the U.S. was right to go to war with Iran: ‘Why the Western world put up with all these proxy wars for 45 years is kind of beyond me’ Fortune

Imperial Collapse Watch

Expanding Battlefield Wolfgang Streeck, New Left Review

Are You Numb to the Propaganda Yet? Un-Diplomatic

Where Did All the Skilled Workers Go? Demand Surges in U.S. SupplyChain 247

Spending total now much higher and counting:

Casino Nation

Polymarket took down wagers tied to rescue of downed Air Force officer TechCrunch

Mr. Market Needs Its Monday Dose of Hopium

Iran mediators make last-ditch push for 45-day ceasefire Axios

Class Warfare

Disabled People Are the Canaries in the Coal Mine Dollars & Sense

The Bottom 50%: The Untold Economic Story The Counterprogramming Club

Home Depot’s New Last Mile Phenomenal World

Antidote du jour (via):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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71 comments

  1. dearieme

    The Oks piece on science citations: I did my PhD so long ago that the Science Citation Index was reasonably new, and a wonderful resource. But no good deed goes unpunished so I’m not surprised to see it fingered as having become destructive.

    In those far off times I would take Friday afternoons off from work in the lab or on the computer and spend time in the libraries – Maths, Physics, Chemistry, Engineering. If there was a fifth Friday in the month I might visit the Copyright Library. I suppose a current PhD student would scarcely believe it.

    But it’s not just that the glory days of the sciences are over, even more so the glory days of the universities.

    Fake science, bogus universities – such a shame but there we are.

    1. Revenant

      I was a stagiare at the European Commission in the late 1990’s and the discipline of “bibliometrics” was just beginning. The experience was salutary in several ways.

      I was trying to write an analytical paper of the impact of EC IT funding (the ESPRIT programme and similar) and I was looking for objective measures. Citation analysis seemed the holy grail so, where there had been publications as an output, I promptly queried the databases. I remember we had access to Lexis-Nexis and Knight Ridder and it was a Wizard of Oz curtain reveal moment, that the commanding heights of the economy relied on these steaming turds of proprietary databases rather than the Internet.

      Once I beat some kind of data out of the databases, I presented the findings. The DG loved it because all the other data he’d ever had were either input data (cost, duration, scientists employed) or were qualitative. He demanded we present it to European Parliament (I think his budget was up for renewal and he wanted good vibes, even if the Council of Ministers set the budget).

      Finally, would you believe where the major work on bibliometrics took place? At the Office if Naval Research in London! The ultra-spooky science & technology “transfer” station attached to the US Embassy in London (read, economic and military R&D espionage, patent surveillance and scientist “development”).

      What I was doing felt weirdly cutting edge but then it was swamped / obscured by the internet and normalised by the UK’s Research Assessment Exercises and their focus on impact factor. But at the beginning, the power and insight to be had from the citation graph (“Facebook for scientists”) was clear, in multiple domains not just innocent scientific enquiry.

      NB: the whole field was prefigured culturally among scientists in the great game of having an Erdós number, i.e. how closely you have published with Paul Erdós or his co-authors und so weiter. My schoolfriend has an Erdós number of 2, which isn’t bad for a child of the 70’s!

  2. The Rev Kev

    “Jamie Dimon says the U.S. was right to go to war with Iran: ‘Why the Western world put up with all these proxy wars for 45 years is kind of beyond me’’

    Frankly Jamie Dimon sounds a helluva lot like Trump here – but without the expletives and the Truth Social account. If Dimon’s views are typical of other billionaires, then you can see that they too would have pushed for this war against Iran. But of course none of them would be so vulgar as to mention stealing Iran’s oil & gas reserves as the real reason for this war. That is what Trump is for. But of course you have to wonder if it is people like Dimon that has been helping keeping the price of oil down the past several weeks. I would not be surprised if so.

    1. hereweare

      Why the world put up with the USA for so long is another question. I guess the leaders of western Europe and the Gulf states thought they’d get special treatment, favours, and protection, while others just put up with being kept down and pushed around, or got assassinated, ousted, or whatever. I also guess a lot of that’s being reconsidered with Trump making no secret of the US being the enemy of the entire world.

    2. eg

      Where even to start with the galactic ignorance Dimon displays here?

      He can’t possibly be this clueless, so I’m filing this one under Upton Sinclair’s timeless observation:

      “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

      1. Steve H.

        From today’s ‘The Bottom 50%: The Untold Economic Story’:

        > As a child of the bottom 50, I know this is how the upper 50 think. I’ve been in the room with them. I went to graduate school with people who think like that. I’ve been mistaken for a member of the top 10% in my classes at Brown and Harvard, and scholars are more honest with classmates assumed to be from the same class. I’ve sat across from top economists who make clear this is an operating assumption they have.

      2. jrkrideau

        As I read his words I suddenly understood periodic financial crises. It is not tat hard to make mistakes when you have no idea how the world works.

    3. jefemt

      Lest we forget Jamie is of the Epstein Class. And if one needs some jucier poison, never forget Russ and Pam Martens, who really keep a keen sharp eye on his multi-faceted doin’s and scores of opaque Settlements.

    4. Glen

      America is being run by the billionaires. They are pretty much all think the same even if they don’t say it, tweet it, or truth it. Dimon just has that DNC vibe where he smiles and tells you nice stuff while he’s knifing you in the back.

  3. Stephen V

    I mean, if being teleported to a Waffle House doesn’t give you experience in emergency response, then I don’t know what.

    1. The Rev Kev

      I took that story as something else. That he got drunk and when he came to his senses, he was in a Waffle House as he had a bad case of the munchies after being on a bender. Now if he wanted more people to believe him, he should have said that god teleported him to a Hooters.

    2. hereweare

      Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was magically transported to a suburban Pizza Express in Woking.

  4. Wukchumni

    Gooooooood Mooooooorning Fiatnam!

    Many in the platoon wanted to call it Bungle in the Jungle, but just deserts were in order and the setting was all wrong as there were no lions or tigers to be seen, just the burnt out wreckage of a reputation.

  5. 4paul

    #TIL Today I Learned
    actually last night when I read Simplicius’ latest I did more reading …

    Laurie Anderson’s “O Superman” is explicitly about the failed Iranian hostage rescue Operation Eagle Claw
    … head exploding emoji …

    Margaret Atwood five years ago on O Superman: Prophetic 80s (not the best personal essay I’ve read, mostly navel gazing, but a couple factoids buried therein)

    1. Revenant

      I remember reading about Laurie Anderson and O Superman (possibly that Guardian piece) but I had forgotten all about her. I just listened to the track and it is wonderful. Spare and sacral and sinister and with lovely squelchy analogous synths.

      Here’s the track with no video, which I would listen to first.
      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rhbYI9HCYKg

      Here’s her original art performance video
      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Vkfpi2H8tOE&list=RDVkfpi2H8tOE&start_radio=1&pp=oAcB

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_Superman

      And the lyrics are on point.

      Lyrics
      Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha…

      O Superman
      O Judge
      O Mom and Dad
      Mom and Dad, ah, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha-ah
      Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha

      O Superman
      O Judge
      O Mom and Dad
      Mom and Dad, ah, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha-ah
      Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha
      Hi, I’m not home right now
      But if you wanna leave a message
      Just start talking at the sound of the tone
      Ah, ah-ah
      Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah
      Hello? This is your mother, are you there?
      Are you coming home?
      Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah-ah

      Hello? Is anybody home?
      Well, you don’t know me, but I know you
      And I’ve got a message to give to you
      Here come the planes
      So you better get ready, ready to go
      You can come as you are, but pay as you go
      Pay as you go
      Ah-ah, ah-ah, ah-ah
      Ah-ah, ah-ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah-ah

      And I said, “Okay, who is this really?”
      And the voice said
      “This is the hand, the hand that takes
      This is the hand, the hand that takes
      This is the hand, the hand that takes
      Here come the planes
      They’re American planes, made in America
      Smoking or non-smoking?”
      Ah, ah-ah, ah, ah, ah-ah
      And the voice said
      “Neither snow nor rain nor gloom of night
      Shall stay these couriers from the swift completion
      Of their appointed rounds”
      Ah, ah-ah, ah-ah, ah-ah
      Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah-ah
      Ah, ah, ah-ah

      ‘Cause when love is gone
      There’s always justice
      And when justice is gone
      There’s always force
      And when force is gone
      There’s always Mom
      Hi, Mom
      Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah-ah

      So hold me, Mom
      In your long arms
      So hold me, Mom
      In your long arms
      In your automatic arms
      Your electronic arms
      In your arms
      So hold me, Mom
      In your long arms
      Your petrochemical arms
      Your military arms
      In your electronic arms
      Ah, ah, ah, ah

  6. ChrisFromGA

    Silly wabbit, it’s ceasefire lie season!

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/06/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-oil

    Ceasefire lies
    Have you ever seen such ceasefire lies?
    They spread them with ease
    Like a dog full of fleas
    Whistlin’ tunes that Blinken knows, and loved so

    Ceasefire lies
    Now the whole world’s looking traumatized
    Don’t apologize
    To anyone who can truly say
    That he has found a better way

    Ceasefire lies
    Don’s gone crazy, his brain’s chicken-fried (chicken-fried)
    Restless and moody, think it’s time for twenty-five
    With his poor impulse control
    Like the stories told of Joe

    Old men
    They lead us off to war because they can
    Every daughter killed by their cold hands
    As they slowly decline,
    We will all weep tears of joy …

    Feel so good
    Feel so good, it’s frightening
    Wish I could
    Stop this world from fighting

    (la-da-da-da-da, da-da-da da-da, da-da-da-da-da-da)

    Mysteries
    Like this and many others in the trees
    Blow in the night
    With the ceasefire lies

    Ceasefire lies
    Don’s just the frontman – Wall Street’s very wise
    Wish I could (ceasefire lies)
    Stop this world from fighting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYTfV5o2ZMY&list=RDjYTfV5o2ZMY

    1. Wukchumni

      Ceasefire lies
      Don’s gone crazy, his brain’s chicken-fried (chicken-fried)
      Restless and moody, think it’s time for twenty-five
      With his poor impulse control
      Like the stories told of Joe

      That about sums it up, nice work!

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Joe’s lookin’ good now, in his aviator shades. Who woulda thunk that he’d age better than raging bull-(family blogger)?

        Bring back the band: Joe on lead stuttering vocals, Kamala on the drums, Sullivan on bass, and Blinken on guitar!

  7. flora

    re: how citations ruined science

    “I don’t think that the answer actually has much to do with AI. It has to do, instead, with the incentives that govern scientific institutions. You could boil it down to one word: citations.”

    aka: publish or perish.

    Even before AI arrived on scene, some academic scientists began rewriting subsections of their older, already published research papers, knowing those submissions would likely be published. They were ‘mining’ their old research instead of setting out on new research. New research takes time, there’s no guarantee of success, and time spent on research that can’t be guaranteed to generate a published paper in one or two years is a risky proposition in the publish-or-perish world of academic science.

    1. Steve H.

      The late Dr. Ron Hites of SPEA had a metric for determining how many papers could be extracted from a data set – the ‘Least Publishable Unit’.

  8. DJG, Reality Czar

    If I may recommend a must-read. Wolfgang Streeck, Expanding Battlefield.

    Streeck is *not* being charitable today, and the whole interview is icy water on the face.

    Sample:
    But it could also be that they anticipate technological and economic benefits, as well as greater internal cohesion, from a war others are fighting for them. This will not pan out, of course, but hope dies last, after the Ukrainians, who, according to von der Leyen, are ‘dying for our values’.

    Frosty. Insightful. Necessary.

    Sample:
    No matter how often its crusades fail, the US doesn’t have to pay damages, make amends, or learn anything.

    Frostier. Necessary. We are now ruled by the goddess Anànke, She of Necessity. Inevitability.

    Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound:

    Chorus: Can it be that Zeus has less power than they do?

    Prometheus: Yes, even he cannot escape what is foretold.

    1. .Tom

      Yes, it’s good.

      I wonder who might read it. Is the Frankfurter Rundschau any more mainstream than the Sidecar blog of the New Left Review?

    2. Juice

      Do westerners have an inability to appreciate ideas unless they are presented by sources of repute or coloured with erudite references? As a student of humanities with zero success getting into western universities (in retrospect, thankfully) this strikes me as a pre-eminent bias in respectable western intellectual life.

      What Streeck is describing is practically common sense in the global south; perhaps not articulated in the same terms, but felt the same way. The US has been making wars since its foundation; US was created out of a brutal colonization project. Not a single US president or member of the US elite has suffered consequences for their sponsored wars of aggression, “the supreme international crime” because “it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole” in the words of the Military Tribunal at Nuremberg. American presidents are tried for crimes of crossing the elite (Watergate) or exposure of petty immorality in office (although that era is now over), but committing the supreme international crime? Well, are you proposing to take away the supreme international right of the masters of the universe to do as they please?

      In the same vein, the Epstein explanation for Iran war or one or another thing is utterly unimpressive. Pedophilia and salacious sexual gossip is canonical American obsession and stupidly easy conduit, on that account, to set up mass psychosis. To the naive outside observer, genocide is surely a worse thing than some purported international child sex ring. But not to an American, who will expend all of a lifetimes creative energy to unpack this or that secret conspiracy that explains the current crisis of leadership; in Truman, Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Bush and now Trump. Simple explanation staring in the face, that to the US elite, it’s all a game, always has been, and wars are other peoples costs to bear is too unpalatable. This is perhaps normal psychological reaction to the unfathomable amorality that defines American foreign policy. But Americans suffer the luxury of being sustainably deluded over decades, whereas in middling Third World countries, delusion means destruction.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Indeed. The pedophilia is just a side benefit of empire for the players of games.

        Also, most westerners on the USian side of the pond don’t know what the word “erudite” means.

    1. .Tom

      Yes. And thanks for that cute little video.

      On Saturday morning on our walk we saw an owl, dunno what kind, flying through the forest shortly after dawn. Cool to see such a big bird in action.

  9. Tom Stone

    The USA is not just at War with the rest of the World, it is explicitly at War with at least half of its own population.
    When it is spending $80 Billion on concentration camps while asserting the need to deport 100,000,000 people that is a conclusion that is hard to avoid.
    It’s going to get very messy over the next few Months.

    1. Geo

      Adding to your concerns:

      The Department of Justice (DOJ) will potentially treat opponents of President Donald Trump’s policies as “domestic terrorists,” according to a leaked memo from Attorney General Pam Bondi to all U.S. law enforcement agencies.

      Among the “anti-American sentiments” Bondi enumerates are anti-Christianity, anti-capitalism, “adherence to radical gender ideology,” “hostility towards traditional views on family, religion, and morality” and “views in favor of mass migration and open borders.”

      Several legal and national security experts have warned that Trump and his allies are attempting to use these orders to criminalize organized opposition to the Trump administration or create a pretext to target people or organizations that support progressive causes.

      https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/leaked-memo-bondi-doj-list-target-anti-trump-activists-domestic-terrorists/

  10. Jason Boxman

    At an employer I know, from higher management:

    “There is a huge push to use AI for all things that is feasible and possible… If you are not, everyone needs to adopt this. Anything you’ve got to share would be helpful.”

    Fun times, no? I’ve never heard anyone mention what the token cost is for all this. After the subsidies fall away, the truth cost of this compute is rather high. Will adoption really seem like the best idea?

    This employer is also adopting “agentic” workflows for engineers.

    What a nightmare time to be alive, no?

    1. Geo

      A friend was recently fired from a job because “You didn’t use ChatGPT to write this, did you?”. She actually put in the work and was fired for not giving them slop.

    2. Glen

      I thought AI was going to magically fix this:

      Where Did All the Skilled Workers Go? Demand Surges in U.S.
      https://www.supplychain247.com/article/skilled-trades-shortage-ai-supply-chain-labor-gap

      The push to build out AI infrastructure across the U.S. is running into a different kind of constraint. It’s not data or software. It’s people.

      Forty plus years of wrecking blue collar jobs in America, and now it turns out that even AI needs blue collar jobs.

      Whocudanode? Everybody did. Heck even twenty years ago we were NOT implementing the latest automation because we could not hire the techs needed to keep it running. This is not a new problem, just the latest interation of we cannot stay even near state of the art for manufacturing if we do not pay enough for manufacturing jobs.

      1. jrkrideau

        Did you notice that among solutions to the shortage decent pay was never mentioned?

        1. Glen

          Maybe an AI LLM can suggest it. /sarc

          I have noticed over the years that when shortages of workers is discussed, increasing pay is hardly ever mentioned as a solution, but Amazon now puts on hiring signs that healthcare starts the day you get hired. Never saw THAT years ago, but back then it was the rare job that didn’t provide health care.

  11. The Rev Kev

    “Hungary places TurkStream pipeline under military protection after Serbia explosives scare”

    This happened in Serbia who informed Hungary afterwards what they had found. So of course it was all a Russian plot who were cunning enough to use American manufactured explosives-

    https://www.rt.com/news/637425-serbia-hungary-ukraine-gas/

    I note also that the Ukrainians had finally agreed to let the EU insect the Druzhba pipeline after Ursula promised them a pot of money but I read a coupla days ago that the Ukrainians had reneged on that agreement.

  12. Wukchumni

    I am a lie man for the country
    And I drive the mainstream media code
    Searchin’ online
    For one of them not doing as they’re told

    I see you slingin’ on the wi-fi
    I can hear you through the whine
    And the withering lie man
    Is still on the decline

    I know I need a small vacation
    But it don’t look like there’ll be much war refrain
    If oil flow slows that stretch down Hormuz
    The rest of the world will never stand the strain

    And I need you more than want you
    And I want me for all time
    And the withering lie man
    Is still on the decline

    And I need you more than want you
    And I want me for all time
    And the withering lie man
    Is still on the decline

    Wichita Lineman, by Glen Campbell

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxSarBcsKLU&list=RDAxSarBcsKLU

  13. Timmy

    On April 1, NC linked to Ed Zitron’s article entitled “The Subprime AI Crisis is Here”, published by him one day prior. In that piece he provided a watchlist of developments including, first on the list: “Any further price increases or service degradations from Anthropic and OpenAI are a sign that they’re running low on cash.”

    Today Anthropic announced…

    “According to a customer email shared on Hacker News, Anthropic said that starting at noon Pacific on April 4 (today), subscribers will “no longer be able to use your Claude subscription limits for third-party harnesses including OpenClaw.” Instead, they’ll need to pay for extra usage through “a pay-as-you-go option billed separately from your subscription.”

    The company said that while it’s starting with OpenClaw today, the policy “applies to all third-party harnesses and will be rolled out to more shortly.”

    https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/04/anthropic-says-claude-code-subscribers-will-need-to-pay-extra-for-openclaw-support/?utm_source=superhuman&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=pikastream-video-chat-with-your-ai&_bhlid=83f5732003134755477a26aa93d963193230c080

    1. Mikel

      I saved the watchlist from that article.
      The Pale Horses of the AIpocalypse:

      “Back in August 2024, I named several pale horses of the AIpocalypse, and after absolutely fucking nailing the call two years early on OpenAI’s “big, stupid magic trick” of launching Sora to the public, I think it’s time to update them:

      • Any further price increases or service degradations from Anthropic and OpenAI are a sign that they’re running low on cash.

      • Any reduction in capex from big tech is a sign that the AI bubble is bursting, as NVIDIA’s continued growth only comes from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle and other large companies buying tens of billions of dollars of servers from Taiwanese ODMs like Foxconn and Quanta.

      • Any further price increases or service degradations from AI startups, such as Cursor, Perplexity, Harvey, Lovable or Replit. These are all token-intensive venture-hogs that burn $4 or $5 for every $1 of revenue.

      • Any discussion of layoffs at AI companies.

      • The collapse of a data center deal that has yet to commence construction.

      • The collapse of a data center already in construction, but before it’s finished.

      • The collapse of an already-constructed data center.

      • CoreWeave or any major data center player having trouble or failing to raise debt. We’ve already seen the beginnings of this with CoreWeave’s issues raising for its Lancaster PA data center.

      • The Further Collapse of Stargate Abilene: If anything happens to the construction of OpenAI’s flagship data center (being built by Oracle) in Abilene Texas, you know shit is getting bad.

      • Any problems or delays with OpenAI or Anthropic going public: both of these companies are the financial equivalent of Chernobyl, so I can only imagine it’ll take some talented accountants to get them in any shape where investors without lead poisoning actually want to get involved.

      • Any problems with Blue Owl as an ongoing concern: Blue Owl is the loosest lender in the AI bubble, and if it falls behind on their loans or has issues with its limited partners, that’s a bad sign too.

      • Any problems with SoftBank: SoftBank was somehow able to raise $40 billion in debt (payable in a year) to fund its chunk of OpenAI’s pseudo-$110 billion round, running over its promised 25% ratio of loans to the value of its assets. This puts SoftBank in a very precarious position.
      o ARM’s stock tanking: A great deal of SoftBank’s wealth comes from its investment in ARM, including a $15 billion margin loan based on its stock. If ARM drops below $80, things are going to get hairy for Masayoshi Son.

      • Any issues with NVIDIA’s customers’ ability to pay: If NVIDIA’s customers don’t reliably pay it, things will look bad come earnings season.

      • NVIDIA misses on earnings: This is an obvious one, but I think the markets will crap their pants if NVIDIA misses on earnings estimates.”

      1. KD

        Don’t forget the impacts of Helium shortages on chip manufacturing. They can probably hide non-payments through creative accrual accounting, but manufacturing shortfalls will hit the revenues and boost the expenses.

    2. Jason Boxman

      That sound is recent buyers of max configured Mac Minis, that thought they were getting cheap inference for OpenClaw, crying out in pain.

      Then, silence.

  14. TomDority

    Exclusive: FBI’s New Political Pre-Crime Center Ken Klippenstein
    When reviewing the qualifications list to be considered a candidate for ‘domestic terrorist’… I am amazed at Kash Patel’s lack of a keen sense of the obvious…. the application of that list would put Trump at the top with most categories checked. It’s as if Trump is projecting his own qualifications and signing his own warrant.
    Maybe Kash cannot clearly see this, because he is surrounded by Trump’s rectum.

    1. hereweare

      Likewise for the UK’s ‘Prevent’ programme, which would plainly put Tony, sorry, Sir Tony Blair at the top of its list.

  15. Wukchumni

    U.S. Moves to Secure Venezuela’s Gold as Influence Deepens After Intervention Oil Price
    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    If say you were a sovereign country where the USA was holding a bunch of karats for you, i’d be rapidly pursuing exit strategies.

    1. jrkrideau

      I’ve been wondering if Delcy Rodriguez and her Government are just trying to keep things from completely collapsing until it can boot the US out?

      The USA is collapsing quickly enough and I doubt nthat Venezuela is currently a lucrative enough colony that the US would really fight if in a few years a face saving way for it to withdraw were found.

      1. fjallstrom

        Craig Murray has a recent article up on his trip to Venezuela.

        After reading that, I lean towards “yes”.

  16. Wukchumni

    Just think if we had spent $20 billion on firefighting planes, equipment and man power instead of this fruitless war?

    There’s gonna be something approaching the Big Burn of 1910 coming down the pike, everything west of the 100th Meridian is bone dry from a winter that mostly didn’t happen, combined with the heat dome melting off much of the scant snow…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Fire_of_1910

    1. jefemt

      We seem to have skipped BOTH winter and Spring here in Bozeangeles del Caleeforneeyah Norte

  17. Tom Stone

    To me the most powerful picture to come out of this War is the aerial photograph of the graves at Mindab.
    Yesterday I spoke to an acquaintance who is also the Father of a Daughter, he brought up the picture of these 168 tiny graves when we spoke.
    Like myself, he reacted to this picture with rage and grief.
    Those little girls will not be forgotten and nor will their murderers be forgiven.
    Unlike myself he is influential in Catholic circles, he is a member of Opus Dei and has been involved in good works for decades.
    There will be an accounting, soon or late and he will be a part of it.

    1. NotDownUnder

      Hey Tom, your sentiments of grief and rage and disgust are felt far and wide I presume, me included, but one of my personal missions is to ask people to stop using the words and phrases which are mercantile when referring to the value of human, (and other than human) life.
      So can we stop using the words “accountable”, and phrases “held to account” which are giving everyone the subconscious sense that we have a monetary worth, or mercantile value which can be ‘tallied’ next to “commodities” on a spreadsheet – (like on clay tablets somewhere back in Mesopotamia when harvest time occurs.)
      Depending on your personal beliefs, its bad enough to treat cattle like cattle, but treating people like cattle most can see is FUBAR.
      Even the history of the duo “Per Capita” comes from counting cattle, and it gets used to refer to per unit person in actuarialese…
      If we don’t go the mercantile path as I suggest, we need to find non material ways to express the need for contrition and apology and making it good again between people.
      I can only find the expression of remorse and sorry in crying and begging for forgiveness is close to enough, for when we are moved to ask, we are becoming a mature human, accepting responsibility and being open to being outcast….(“we won’t trade with you!”- a mercantile version).
      Onlookers leave flowers to signify their collective grief and longing for some healing.
      Maybe we should wear a flower+168 until this particular deep wound is addressed?

      I don’t mean to offend on such a sensitive posting you made.
      Just to say, most film producers usually like to display the evil credentials of the villain in a movie early in the story, so they show them torturing someone from their previous escapade-just to show they are the baddie-produce moral outrage in the audience.
      Although definitely not a movie, it seems this one is to signal something like this, but why? Perhaps to tell anyone who is thinking of opposing US+I, this is what you can expect this time around.

      What a Mess!

  18. flora

    From Breaking Points, utube, ~14+ minutes.

    Iran Shows TOTAL CONTROL Of Strait Of Hormuz Oil Flow

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVUT3AOS7mc

    My opinion: like EU govts, my guess is the US is releasing gas and oil from the strategic petroleum reserve to subsidize prices at the gas pump. That’s happened before. But, if it is happening, how long can that go on; what happens to gas prices at the pump if/when the petroleum reserves subsidy runs out?

    1. Alice X

      Watching now. Thank you!

      Heavy stuff which your normie friend was imbibing.

      Long promote heavy stuff imbibement to your friends, and be kind to those who are slow in the uptake.

      Back to the interview. Thank you again.

      ps I like Steve Keen and I like the interviewer who held forth on another venue, we’ll see what he does here.

      1. NotDownUnder

        I need to ask, is Steve Keen, who I ‘like’ also, a capitalist ?

        I’m not sure if the brands apply anymore, but he is an educator too, and his histories include the stuff lefties and Marxist usually quote, but that is my sense anyway, he probably agrees with a limit on capital through proper taxation of the filthy rich, but no citations here, I’m sorry, just been listening to him for some years.

        1. Alice X

          I like Keen as he links energy in to production out. He does not go far into social relations. He is a heterodox economist because of the first cited instance. Political (Social) economics is waiting.

          Is he a capitalist? I don’t know where he would stand were capitalism to fall, as it may any day.

          We all may find our limit soon. He does get into some possible dire consequences in the interview.

      2. Pearl Rangefinder

        :)

        I agree with you there, I also like Keen a lot and always find his interviews interesting. Most of my friend group has little to no interest in international politics or economics, so when they start sending me Steve Keen interviews that they have watched, I view that as a big sign the knowledge of just how utterly screwed we are (beyond just gas prices) due to Israel’s/America’s war with Iran has started to break containment in a big way. I’m starting to see more signs of that now in other groups that I take an interest in, like auto gearheads. This is a post from Lake Speed Jr. (AKA “The Motor Oil Geek”) on his youtube over Easter, he runs a used motor oil analysis lab and was formerly a lubricants formulator for racing teams:

        Happy Easter & HEADS UP – Buy your oil now! Two major refineries in the Middle East have been damaged by missile attacks. Both refineries produce synthetic base oils and/or feedstocks to make synthetic oils (yes, synthetic oils are made from crude derived products). As such, low viscosity synthetic oils are going to be in shorter supply. I heard today from an inside source that base oil prices have skyrocketed in the last few weeks, so finished oil prices will be increasing soon.

  19. Alice X

    Needing at hour and a half respite before more doo-doo hits the geopolitical fan, I checked in on Novara Media (UK).

    Note givens of left presenter and centrist interviewee, compare the title to the link text: is liberalism just fascism in disguise

    A very interesting discussion. Informative.

    Is Liberalism Finally Waking up to the Crises It Has Caused?

    Liberalism, in one form or another, has been the pervading political ideology of the past 200 years. It has become so pervasive, as an ideology, that it lays claim to the middle ground and common sense itself. But liberalism is a set of dogmas and doctrines like any other political ideology, and unfathomable horrors as well as huge advances have been made in its name.

    Today on Downstream, the ideas we call liberal or centrist are up for scrutiny, as Aaron Bastani interviews Adrian Wooldridge. Wooldridge is a liberal insider, having been a journalist at the Economist magazine for thirty years. His new book, Centrists of the World Unite! The Lost Genius of Liberalism is an account of his own sense that liberalism in 2026 is in a state of crisis. It must reinvent itself, he argues, or die.

    So what exactly is liberalism, where did it come from, and how can we characterise it today? What was the historical relationship between liberalism and slavery? Why are liberals always so reluctant to acknowledge this aspect of their history? In times of crisis, do liberals always defect to the fascist far-right? And what must centrists do today, if they want their ideas to organise the 21st century?

  20. homeroid

    This is a difficult subject to bring up. My sweet hart of thirty plus years is upset with my use of expletives.
    I know fuck is in the dictionary or one of them anyway this is a word i use.
    There are some fikkin variations the know have used fer 45 flippin years.
    This is txhe most literate site on the galdang web could we please make a list the best expletives.
    perhaps i could expand my vocabulary.

    1. kareninca

      I’m sorry that this site is a bit of a pain, but it is worth the effort to see a list of Captain Haddock’s curses. It is by far the best curse list ever: https://tintin.fandom.com/wiki/List_of_Captain_Haddock%27s_Curses

      You’ll want to read at least one Tin Tin book to find out who Captain Haddock is, but you can start using his curses right away.

      From the site, here are the ones that start with the letter A:

      A million scavenging sea monsters! **
      Aardvark!
      Abecedarians!
      Aborigine! ♦
      Addle-pated lumps of anthracite! ♦
      (old) Alcoholic !
      Amoeba! **
      Anachronisms!
      Anacoluthon(s)!
      Antediluvian bulldozer [Tibet p60 B2]!
      Anthracite! ♦
      Anthropithecus!
      Anthropophagus!
      Apes! **
      Arabesque! ♦
      Arabian Nightmare!
      Artichokes!
      Assassins!
      Autocrats!
      Aztecs!

      1. hk

        Probably a sign of interesting cultural backgrounds converging on NC that my reaction was “Curses? I don’t remember Captain Harlock cursing…”

        1. anahuna

          Mention of Tintin brings Asterix and Obelix to mind, along with their war cries: By Toutatis! By Belenos! You could try swearing by a list of obscure deities.

          And have a giggle or two revisiting those doughty warriors against the Roman Empire. I just did.

  21. Balan Aroxdale

    Trump White House Pushes Satellite Firm to Withhold All Images of Iran War Common Dreams

    An admission of already existing policies. But we can expect even more of this as the war situation deteriorates. Search engines and social media websites will be covertly and explicitly roped into more and more censorship as the military situation deteriorates. Personally I feel the western world is headed down the very same path as Ukraine with this one, just on an even larger scale. The whole western world will be drawn in, as the UK clearly already has been.

  22. NotDownUnder

    RE: Exclusive: FBI’s New Political Pre-Crime Center Ken Klippenstein

    Well, there you go, thought – or posting – police are in your midst.

    Question: Do you need to actually write and post something, and or say something in a public forum to be got by the new thought police, OR can an officer just determine you said this in a private convo sense?
    I mean the typical thing might be someone looking impartial claims you said this to them, and calls an agent over at a public event/rally, and bingo, your offed to El Salvador for reeducation…work for food detention in Utah somewhere.
    Does any one know yet?

    What a Mess!

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