Recent Items

Iran War: Trump Makes Even More Unhinged Threat as Details of F-15 Pilot Rescue Point to Much Bigger Plan, Say to Seize Enriched Uranium; Trump Legitimacy Crisis Grows as Battered Gulf States Pull Back on US Investment, Particularly AI

Posted on by

[Today’s Iran war update launched a smidge before done. Please return at 7:30 AM EDT for a final version or refresh your browsers then.]

Most readers are likely up to date on the latest Trump cray-cray, but to make sure we are all on the same page, Trump is even more visibly losing his mind. I am providing it with the Marjorie Taylor Greene commentary. As we’ll discuss shortly, it shows that Trump’s repeatedly backfiring efforts to assert his dominance and somehow create a success from the epic and worsening disaster are creating a legitimacy crisis. But who can take the car keys from an ever more dangerous and deranged president?1

This tweet came after the disaster-attempted-to-be-rebranded as success of what has been depicted as the rescue of one of two operators of an F-15, a weapons officer. Trump initially depicted him as unharmed but it appears he was seriously injured. The disproportionate scale and equipment losses of the purported rescue effort, the inconsistencies in the official story, and the Pentagon’s effort to clamp down on information all point to a lot more having been afoot than just a search for a crew member of a plane that had wandered or been sent into hostile airspace.2

We’ll turn to some of the theories, but one that makes sense (as in fits known facts, which of course may not be actual facts) is that the F-15 was part of an operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, which was believed to be stored at Isfahan. Even though experts have all depicted this as a particularly hare-brained, high-risk, very low odds of success operation, we posted a tweet that said that Trump was really keen about the scheme and had green-lighted it.

Now if all of the above is true, it would explain (without justifying, mind you) Trump’s escalation to a new level of choler and destructive intent. The same way Ukraine’s leaders became fixated on the destruction of the Kerch Bridge as a way to demonstrate their potency and really sock it to Russia, so too seizing the enriched uranium could have become an almost talismanic fixation for Trump, in at least restoring the very badly damaged image of US potency and military prowess. Given that he believes that non-existent negotiations are or are about to start happening, he and the Zionists and hawks egging him on could have sold (and may themselves actually believe) that such a blow to Iran would force them to the negotiating table. Mind you, for Israel, none of these gimmicks have to work in reality to work for their purpose. They just need to keep Trump at the gaming table, betting despite diminishing odds of victory.

Of course, as readers know well, even if this was the plan and it had succeeded, it would have changed nothing fundamental. Iran’s power comes from its control over the Strait of Hormuz. What happens to unweaponized uranium has nothing to do with that, particularly since Iran also knows well that the US and its allies are running low not just on defensive but even offensive weapons. The US ex nukes can’t keep fighting at its current level of intensity for all that much longer.

Now to the theories of what might actually have happened with the “oh just a rescue, nothing more to see here” drama. The Pentagon is clearly hiding something:

As to what that might be, we’ll turn first to an assesement by reader Arkady Bogdanov:

This is the only explanation that makes sense in my mind- I will again grant that this is speculation. A Little Bird helicopter only has a range of about 250-275 miles, depending on how much weight it is carrying. Little Birds are the chosen transport method for Tier one SOF units. They are highly maneuverable, lightweight, have high visibility for pilots, etc. These aircraft are used for raids- very quick in and out, but due to their short range, they have to be staged from relatively close to their target. 2 Little Birds can fit into the cargo hold of a C-130. The Little Birds were likely inside the cargo holds of the C-130’s when the C-130’s were shot down- and given a quick glance at the C-130 props, it seems clear that they hit the ground while rotating- this suggests a crash, not a demolition (plus you can see what look like shrapnel holes in the control surfaces that are remaining in photos). This would also explain why the helicopter debris is intermingled with the C-130 debris.

We know that Trump was talking about staging an operation using a constructed (or existing) airstrip to steal the uranium, and to my absolute amazement- it looks like they tried it. The C-130’s were not there for the F-15 crewman. This is even more apparent when we look at the reports showing that the rescue beacon activated by the F-15 backseater located him around 120 miles away from the airstrip that the C-130’s were found at. Now this does not mean that this was all not related. The C-130’s were not there for the F-15, but there is a pretty good chance the F-15 was there for the C-130’s.

The F-15 was probably tasked with clearing the ingress/egress route for the SOF mission brought in by the C-130’s. Likely this included AD suppression and possibly ground attack runs against forces defending the target assigned to the SOF guys.

So the F-15 likely was part of the mission, and was hit while the C-130’s were already inbound. Regional command may or may not have known the F-15 was downed, but would have noted the lost contact. Likely there was enough pressure to continue the mission even if there had been confirmation the F-15 was hit by AD.

Now the Blackhawks probably were the Combat Search And Rescue mission. They may have all been assigned to find the F-15 crewman, or they could have been split between recovering the F-15 crew and trying to assist the forces at the airstrip (again- command would see a loss of contact with the C-130’s, but would likely not know actual status or if there were survivors). The A-10 was likely providing close air support for the CSAR mission, as having close air support is doctrinal to CSAR. The drones were likely providing real time ISR and possibly close air support also.

In short- this must have been a real furball. It’s hard to make sense of, but the above is the only explanation that makes sense to me. Now many people are wondering were the SOF contingent is. The C-130’s would have had to have been carrying enough fuel for themselves (return trip) plus fuel supplies for the Little Birds, and the weapons stores (small arms, grenades, small diameter rockets, etc) when the C-130’s went down- fire and detonation would be most probable, and the aircraft crews and SOF troops were likely incinerated pretty much instantly. Likely not much left for remains given the likely volume of flammable fuel and explosives on board.

Let us add some other fine points for the sake of information hygiene: again recall that Ted Postol has said air defense is a big scam. I differ a bit because all the very effective air defense systems involve as critical systems a super duper radar. Recall again that Iran recognized that in destroying the THAAD radars in theater pronto, and also by Larry Wilkerson focusing on the S-500 radars (600 mile range) as to why the possibility that Russia was hurrying to provide them to Iran would be a big deal.

This area of Iran is mountainous and so radar effectiveness is limited. Hence another reason to try to get forces in: it would be theoretically more possible than elsewhere.

Arkady skipped over what the purpose of the operation might have been. Simplicius provided a long post on the operation, with many images highlighting inconsistencies and implausibilities (like how did an airman with a broken ankle or broken leg, as has been reported, move five miles to where he was rescued?). I strongly recommend reading It’s Official: US Boots-On-Ground Deep Inside Iran Amidst Another Day of Humiliating Losses in full. These parts stood out:

We can make several speculative concluding points.

1. Boots-on-ground is already underway deep inside Iran, and just happens to be centered on the area where Iran stores its coveted uranium. There’s a very good chance Trump wanted to stage a surprise snatch-and-grab before announcing a major “victory” to the world.

2. Many have pointed out that this whole debacle does at least prove that Iran has been attrited to such a degree as to allow the US to now fly deep missions into central Iran, including with troops, which are able to get in and out without dying.

This may be true, but at the same time whatever this operation was, it appears to have been a massive failure with huge losses of materiel if not manpower, depending whether you believe official tales or not…

Iran is very mountainous and, as such, it is quite possible to fly smaller clandestine missions that avoid radar coverage because it is extremely difficult to have long-range radars operating in areas where mountains block the radar waves in every direction.

My personal bet as far as the above point: If any kind of special forces operation was to happen, it would only be done with the assistance of “insiders” as was done in Venezuela….

The operation yielded quite considerable losses:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/05/iran-war-latest-news-trump-strait-hormuz-f15-pilot-rescue/
Total from Operation Epic Failure so far:

On the insiders contention: that term implies they were high level. As John Kiriakou has repeatedly pointed out based on his time as head of counterintelligence for the CIA in Pakistan, all of the captives the agency interviewed were non-ideological. They needed the money. And Kiriakou pointed out that regular people can provide lots of actionable intel by watching and documenting routines of people and organizations.

Simplicius also points to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi saying on March 9 that Iran’s enriched uranium was probably in Isfahan.

There’s a wee problem with that. Iran kicked out the IAEA in October 2025 after the E-3 triggered the JCOPA snapback (which Russia and China did not recognize because it was procedurally improper, hence they are no longer participating in sanctions in Iran). So any knowledge he has is stale. Not that we can be sure, but it would have seemed prudent for Iran to move some or all of this cache to multiple places, since there was no longer any reason to keep it in one spot for the convenience of IAEA inspectors. From October 2025 from the Arms Control Association Iran to Suspend IAEA Deal After UN Sanctions Return:

Araghchi told the state-run IRIB News Agency in a Sept. 11 interview that the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran is evaluating “whether these materials are accessible or not, and the status of some of them.”…

The Europeans also sought information on the status of Iran’s stockpile of uranium-235 enriched to 60 percent. According to a Sept. 3 IAEA report, Iran had 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to that level before the June 13 strikes. Iran likely moved the material to the underground facility at Esfahan that was too deeply buried to be destroyed by U.S. strikes. The entrance to that facility was struck, however, rendering the material inaccessible. (See ACT, July/August 2025.)

So it appears the IAEA was guessing where the uranium was cached as of the Twelve Day War

Additional useful detail from Simpicius:

You can confirm via the above link in the quote that they are referring to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center at the center of the discussion. There is apparently an underground complex at the connected “missile complex”, whose southern entrance is here: 32.585522° N, 51.814933° E.

This puts the failed US clandestine operation 35km southeast of one of Iran’s main uranium sites.

It is therefore only logical to speculate that the F-15E “rescue” operation was a fake meant to smokescreen and conceal something more nefarious. Recall that Trump had been talking about exfiltrating Iran’s uranium, an op that would require building runways in the country. It’s plausible that this plan had already long been underway as Trump bought time by claiming it was just a theoretical ‘possibility’ under consideration….

But if the F-15E did really crash near Isfahan, it raises many questions:

Why would an F-15E need to fly directly over Isfahan? Even if it was bombing the nuclear complex there with the shortest-range munitions possible, it would not need to come even remotely that close, particularly over a major population center that would likely have concentrated air defense.

It’s possible that the F-15s were being used to provide cover for the other clandestine operation and needed to be brought in extra close for diversionary reasons and direct CAS with Mavericks, laser-guided GBUs, etc., which have extremely short range and need direct line of sight from the aircraft to hit targets. For instance, reports openly state that US fighter jets did conduct active direct strikes on Iranian forces approaching the area of the CSAR op. That means we do know for definite jets were at least claimed to have been striking there—but we do not need to believe the official reason. They may very well have been striking to assist in the special forces’ true clandestine mission, whether it was uranium-related, or the beginnings of the FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) base setup for future purposes.

An overlapping assessment from Larry Johnson in What the Hell Happened with the Rescue of the F-15E WSO in Iran?:

Now here is the kicker… The geolocated wreckage of the C-130s which were apparently using a local “agricultural airstrip” (see the photo above) just happens to be right over a mountain, about 35km (21 miles) away, from Isfahan’s nuclear facility, where Iran’s ‘near-weapons grade’ enriched uranium is alleged to be stored. Was this whole affair a botched raid by US Special Operations forces to seize Iranian uranium for the Isfahan facility?

Johnson briefly re-reports Simplicius and notes:

Anthony Aguilar, a retired Special Operations officer, has a slightly different take. He offers the following hypothesis:

The rescue operation expanded to become the desired Delta Force, JSOC, SOF, ST-6 high-risk operation to ALSO seize the uranium in Iran; hence the need for so many operators, support, aircraft, etc. This WAS intended to be that operation. It failed. So what happened to the aircraft. I do not believe that they were “stuck”. I have seen MC-130Js plow through dirt, mud, snow, gravel, etc. I doubt they were stuck. It is more likely that the aircraft took hits upon entry and also likely took hits and damage while on the ground at the hasty FARP at the old airfield in Isfahan, “conveniently” close to where the suspected uranium may have been stored.

The detail from Arkady above C-130 propellers being damaged apparently via hitting the ground while rotating would seem to be dispositive.

Julian Macfarlane pointed out in FAFO America:

The Americans say there were not casualties on their side but 100s of Iranians killed. The Iranians disagree .

What actually matters however is

  • the US does not have air supremacy — not even air superiority over Iranian airspace
  • the US got its ass kicked
  • the US operation cost an estimated $1 billion
  • the US will have to dig into its remaining supply of standoff missiles
  • “boots on the ground” will be very costly
  • the US is at least disingenuous about casualties.
  • the Department of War should have listen to its Generals instead of firing them. 

Due to this post already being a bit long, we will give short shift to the accelerating Trump legitimacy crisis, a topic which is not going to go away. We had pointed out that the purge of senior military officials had produced a big backlash even among Republicans; the ousted chief of staff, General Randy George, was very highly respected.

The last two Trump tweets, particularly his profanity-filled one on Easter Sunday we posted at the top, appears to have crossed an event horizon. In my gandering across YouTube news updates, I have seen very pointed disapproval from many many many mainstream outlets, the sort of criticism that is pretty much never directed at an American president. One example, from ABC News in Australia:

Plus:

I will not dignify the spectacle of this war’s Baghdad Bob, Barak Ravid of Axios, still flogging the latest iteration of the market-pacifying fabrication that not only are negotiations with Iran happening but a “deal” is imminent, when Iran has said “no” to that so many times that it would be hard to count.

And an important update on the economic front from Ryan Grim, in Gulf Funds Are Recalibrating American Investments, Including Backing for Paramount Merger, as Iran War Rages On.: We’ll start with his conclusion and work back selectively:

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are undertaking a sweeping review of American investments, driven by a combination of commercial necessity and political recalibration driven by the Iran war…

In particular, the planned merger between Paramount Skydance and Warner Brothers Discovery, made possible as a result of Gulf financing, is getting a new look….

Under the current scenario, the Paramount deal remains likely to go through, but that could change if the war goes on for another month or longer and Gulf oil and gas assets come under even greater attack…Yet even the current circumstances are forcing a deeper look at the entire suite of deals in the sovereign wealth funds’ portfolios…

At risk is the heart of the U.S. economy, which is currently fueled by the growth of AI companies and the data centers that power them. Harvard economist Jason Furman calculated that more than 90% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was driven by AI and related investments. Much of the data center buildout is powered by Gulf financing, while U.S. companies are also building out heavily in the Gulf.

All of that is now uncertain. “The story is not just deals specifically, but if you look at all the AI data centers and all that growth that’s coming in the next few years, where’s most of that capital coming from?” he [a source with knowledge of Qatar Investment Authority decisions] said. “A lot of it is coming from the Gulf. And if the Gulf—not politically, but even just from a financial perspective—cannot commit that, what’s the knock on effects on those companies and the U.S. economy? I don’t think anyone has done that math, but there is something there absolutely.”

“Hyperscalers”—referring to major companies like OpenAI—“are fine, those guys are huge, they can afford it, but what about the next level?” he said, referring to a sweeping class of companies that could go under without Gulf support.

Additional signs of economic tsuris:

From The Hill inJet fuel costs skyrocket amid Iran war, exacerbating crisis for airlines, travelers:

Since before the war began, the price of jet fuel in the U.S. has surged by 95 percent — from $2.50 per gallon on Feb. 27 to $4.88 on April 2, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, published by Airlines for America. That puts the price per barrel at nearly $205.

Airlines have already begun taking steps to offset higher costs, reducing flight schedules and quietly raising fares.
United Airlines last month became the first major U.S. carrier to scale back its schedule. CEO Scott Kirby said the airline would start “tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices” by cutting approximately 5 percent of planned routes during the second and third quarters of 2026.

“The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks. If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B,” Kirby wrote in a memo to employees on March 20.

And:

Back to a few kinetic war updates:

Done for now. See you tomorrow!

_____

1 Forget the 25th Amendment. Put Trump under involuntary psych incarceration. I hope you forgive my efforts to insert favorite movie scenes as a form of relief from our current horrible givens, but this section of the carefully-written Michael Clayton suggests Trump could be locked up in the looney bin even under New York’s strict standards.

If you do not know the movie, Arthur is a star litigator who has decided to turn on his mega client who has been poisoning farm families. He is a manic depressive who went off his meds and acted out wildly in a deposition in Wisconsin:

2 Forgive me for another fictional reference, but look at how predisposed the great unwashed public is to take the story of heroic rescue at face value, and not consider that the large equipment losses meant that it was at best messy and costly. Americans have been conditioned by Hollywood to romanticize efforts to recover injured soldiers or ones stuck behind enemy lines (see Saving Private Ryan as one of many examples). I am not saying this is not a worthwhile effort, but that the pre-existing conditioning produces a lack of warranted inquisitiveness. The emphasis on this sort of behavior by the military is more likely the result of efforts to burnish the image of the armed services generally. But the result reminds me of Dune, where the Bene Gesserit planted legends all over the universe that its members might be able to exploit when they got in a pickle.

And that is before the fact that the Pentagon may be covering up actual losses in this operation. Some on Twitter are presenting blow-up images of the destroyed planes which they claim show a burned skull….

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Subscribe to Post Comments
327 comments

  1. AG

    Car keys?
    Sometimes the wife takes ´em🤔
    Or the kids.
    At some point we get Lear syndrome when the old dog becomes a threat to the whole clan and has to be disempowered.
    Do those not see what really is going on?
    Difficult to imagine they don´t. (Whatever Kushner says and does it´s just his current role.)
    They will have political aspirations.
    And if Kennedy think is within Trumps clan than legacy-building will become more and more relevant.
    With a father who fucks up as POTUS big time that turns even a more arduous task.
    I assume there are tiny or larger rifts these days between big wigs and their offspring in the US (thinking of some of those cases re: Gaza.)

  2. jj

    Maybe my understanding of the phrase is a little different, but I would not call special ops “boots on the ground”. In my head that would mean something akin to an actual invasion.

    1. hereweare

      Yes. I’ve joked about whether special forces wear high heels or sandals, but ‘boots on the ground’ does usually refer to ordinary troops.

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      The current ideas floating about look like “If the only tool you have is a hammer, then every problem is a nail” behavior, as in trying to use special forces for what should be ground operations (as in they take “boots on the ground” manpower levels and serious logistical support). So I am not bothered by the usage.

      1. David

        The US does seem to have focused on special forces development over the past couple of decades. A sizeable proportion of their military is either special forces or troops whose purpose is to support them. Add in things like the 92nd airborne which are not part of special forces command but are certainly meant for very specific operations.

  3. JW

    Thank you for an excellent concise summary that cuts through both the hype and extreme speculation.

  4. debug

    Thank you profusely and abundantly for the extra coverage.

    One small thing — it’s John Kir-i-akou. There’s an “i” in there.

    Also, I came across local coverage not long ago (March 13) that ID’ed particular forces deployed from Mississippi that may have been involved in the recent action in Iran.

    “According to a statement from the Mississippi National Guard shared on social media, airmen and soldiers from the 186th Air Refueling Wing, 172d Airlift Wing, 2-20th Special Forces Battalion, and Special Operations Detachment deployed in late February to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in support of Operation Epic Fury.”

    I would post a link, and will, if anyone is interested, but I’d prefer not to give the source any traffic — the source is reliable, as far as i know, but decidedly not aligned with my views in general.

    Last time I saw the MS ANG KC-135 in flight over Jackson, MS was shortly before this, and I saw four largish army helicopters fly in around that time also. Don’t know enough to ID the ‘copters.

  5. hereweare

    We know that Trump was talking about staging an operation using a constructed (or existing) airstrip

    According to the Telegraph, it was an existing strip:
    The actual rescue mission involved over 100 special forces commandos being flown in on specialist MC-130J troop carriers, landing on a makeshift agricultural runway normally used by crop-sprayers and other light planes. That runway was just 30 miles from Isfahan, one of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/05/how-us-pulled-off-most-daring-operation-in-history/
    It goes on:
    “One Little Bird [an MH-6 helicopter] flew to that mountain top area and rescued the WSO [weapon systems officer] and brought him back to the landing strip. And of course the two C-130s’ nose gears got stuck in the dirt. So after a few hours they had to bring in three AFSOC [Air Force Special Operations Command] Dash-8s to fly out the rescued WSO and the 100 or so personnel involved in the op,” a US military official told Michael Weiss, an American journalist and author.
    (Dash-8s appear to be good at landing and taking off from crummy airstrips, but no doubt others with more knowledge of such matters can elaborate)

    1. hereweare

      Larry Johnson, above, says it was apparently an agricultural airstrip. (I don’t know if I missed that, or posted my previous comment before it was there.)
      An overlapping assessment from Larry Johnson in What the Hell Happened with the Rescue of the F-15E WSO in Iran?:

      Now here is the kicker… The geolocated wreckage of the C-130s which were apparently using a local “agricultural airstrip” …

      1. Frank

        I used Google Earth to zoom in on that area. There’s plenty of flat area around, but I didn’t see a wind sock or anything like that. The site Johnson points to is very near a chemical company – fertilizer, insecticides … ? don’t know.
        The Isfhan international airport is about 39 miles to the north and easy to see.
        Also easy to see is a lot of very organized agriculture, but where they get sufficient water for that is a question. The area is very near mountains and they may have some good way of collecting snow melt.
        I don’t see any trees growing there, but it looks to be a bigish city.

    2. converger

      Dash-8s were the short-hop regional flight workhorse for Horizon (Alaska) Airlines for decades. Alaska built its reputation in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest as an airline that could reliably take off and land safely in conditions that no other airline could attempt.

      I was once in a Dash-8 that made a night landing at SEA in the middle of a blizzard that had already shut down the airport (and the city). Fantastic plane.

    3. jrkrideau

      “One Little Bird [an MH-6 helicopter] flew to that mountain top area and rescued the WSO [weapon systems officer] and brought him back to the landing strip

      There is a bit of an inconsistency here. Why was this “rescue mission” landing at an airstrip ` 35 km from Isfahan when the initial Iranian reports had the missing airman being downed in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad Province. At very rough guesses based on Goggle Maps, the “rescue mission” was setting down about 125 to 175 km past the area where the airplane was reported as shot down.

      If the raiding party was looking for a missing WSO/Colonel we have 2 different shoot-downs. Otherwise we have a complete cock-up and the US desperately trying to concoct a cover-up.

      I was starting to look at names and maps when I found an excellent summary of the inconsistencies, much better than mine would have been.

      https://sonar21.com/what-the-hell-happened-with-the-rescue-of-the-f-15e-wso-in-iran/
      Author : Autonomous

      There’s a key geography issue here. Multiple Iranian (or Iran‑based) sources clearly place the F‑15E downing and manhunt in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad / Khuzestan, not near Isfahan. Kohgiluyeh is 190km from the abandoned airport near Isfahan.

      For example, Iranian state TV carried a police statement addressed specifically to residents of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province, offering a bounty for capturing the downed U.S. aircrew:

      “Dear and honourable people of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province, if you capture the enemy pilot or pilots alive and hand them over to the police and military forces, you will receive a valuable reward and bonus.”

      That’s not generic propaganda; it’s explicitly telling locals in that province that the jet went down and the missing pilot is in their area:

      https://punchng.com/iran-hunts-crashed-us-jet-crew-as-reports-say-one-rescued/

      Similarly, Iran International’s English channel, using Iranian video and testimony, describes people:

      “driving along the road to Dehdasht, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province, to search for a missing US pilot after an American F‑15 crashed in the area.”

      https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWvbwaTkwYD/

      Neither of these Iranian‑sourced accounts mention Isfahan when describing where locals should search or where the F‑15 crashed. They consistently place the downing and the manhunt in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad and the adjacent Khuzestan border region, which undercuts the idea that the WSO was located on a ridgetop “near Isfahan” or that the crash itself occurred in that vicinity.

      If the raiding party was looking for a missing WSO/Colonel we have 2 different shoot-downs, one in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad Province and one in Isfahan Province.. Otherwise we have a complete cock-up during a raid and the US is desperately trying to concoct a cover-up.

      I had started thinking about this and looking maps when I ran into an excellent summary of some of the issues posted by a commentator on Larry Johnson’s Sonar21 bog who has done a much better job of pointing out the inconsistencies than I could.

      https://sonar21.com/what-the-hell-happened-with-the-rescue-of-the-f-15e-wso-in-iran/
      There’s a key geography issue here. Multiple Iranian (or Iran‑based) sources clearly place the F‑15E downing and manhunt in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad / Khuzestan, not near Isfahan. Kohgiluyeh is 190km from the abandoned airport near Isfahan.

      For example, Iranian state TV carried a police statement addressed specifically to residents of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province, offering a bounty for capturing the downed U.S. aircrew:

      “Dear and honourable people of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province, if you capture the enemy pilot or pilots alive and hand them over to the police and military forces, you will receive a valuable reward and bonus.”

      That’s not generic propaganda; it’s explicitly telling locals in that province that the jet went down and the missing pilot is in their area:

      https://punchng.com/iran-hunts-crashed-us-jet-crew-as-reports-say-one-rescued/

      Similarly, Iran International’s English channel, using Iranian video and testimony, describes people:

      “driving along the road to Dehdasht, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province, to search for a missing US pilot after an American F‑15 crashed in the area.”

      https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWvbwaTkwYD/

      Neither of these Iranian‑sourced accounts mention Isfahan when describing where locals should search or where the F‑15 crashed. They consistently place the downing and the manhunt in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad and the adjacent Khuzestan border region, which undercuts the idea that the WSO was located on a ridgetop “near Isfahan” or that the crash itself occurred in that vicinity.

      1. hk

        (Putting my tinfoil hat on). I am not sure if there was a “WSO” to be rescued near Isfahan at all. The whole thing looks like a SOF raid gone awry, without any provision for a CSAR operation. Maybe there was a CSAR operation elsewhere. Maybe multiple aircraft went down and “the other” aircrew, wherever and whoever they are, were rescued or captured or not found yet by either side or whatever. Whatever it is, the ptb are insulting the intelligence of the human race.

  6. TomHam

    Al Jazeera and telegram channels reporting Israel has attacked South Pars, even if the USA and Iran could agree terms would Israel allow it?

    1. Ben Panga

      Times of Israel blog posts

      —

      The Israeli Air Force struck Iran’s “largest petrochemical facility” a short while ago, Defense Minister Israel Katz says.

      Iranian media reported that airstrikes targeted petrochemical facilities at Iran’s South Pars gas field.

      Katz, in a statement, confirms the strike, saying that the IDF “has just powerfully struck the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh, a central target responsible for about 50 percent of the country’s petrochemical production, following last week’s strike on the second main facility.

      —-

      A second petrochemical facility in Iran was hit by airstrikes, Iranian media reports.

      “A few minutes ago, the Marvdasht Petrochemical Complex was targeted by an American-Zionist enemy attack,” the Fars news agency reports.

      Fars says a fire that sparked at the complex was brought under control, and no casualties were caused.

      _——————–+

      Fars Telegram

      [South Pars attack]
      National Petrochemical Industries Company: This afternoon, the American-Zionist enemy, continuing its criminal attacks on infrastructure and industrial areas, attacked a number of ancillary facilities of the petrochemical industries in the Pars Special Economic Energy Zone.

      🔹Safety, fire, rescue, and operational teams immediately arrived at the scene of the incident, and necessary measures were initiated to manage the emergency situation and the fire was contained.

      🔹The situation is under control as of the time of this announcement, and the technical aspects and extent of the damage are being investigated. No casualties have been reported so far.

      ——

      [Marvdasht attack]
      Enemy attack on Marvdasht Petrochemical Complex and fire suppression

      🔹A few minutes ago, the Marvdasht Petrochemical Complex was targeted by the American-Zionist enemy.

      🔹The fire was contained within the first few minutes by the complex, so there was not much damage to this industrial unit, and only a small part of it suffered minor damage.

      🔹This attack did not cause any casualties, and due to the minor damage, there was no disruption to the unit’s activities.

      —-

      [Bonus Fars]
      🔹Satellite images released show widespread fires in the Habshan, Asab, and Bu Hasa oil and gas fields, as well as the Habshan to Fujairah pipeline in the UAE, following Iranian missile and drone attacks.

      🔸The Abyssinia-Fujairah pipeline, operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), is vital as an alternative route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption to it would seriously hamper the UAE’s oil exports.

      —–

      IRGC Public Relations: The US terrorist army’s LHA7 helicopter carrier and amphibious assault ship with more than 5,000 sailors and marines was attacked by lightning-fast Iranian missiles, and after this wave of aggression, it was forced to retreat deep into the southern Indian Ocean.

    2. jsn

      Should the US choose to stop Israel, it can almost immediately and completely.

      So far it chooses to let itself be waged by its tail.

      Marketing “not my fault”, no one buying.

  7. Steve H.

    New Turchin: Decapitating Top Political Leadership: Does It Work? An Unsystematic Historical Survey

    > Can we suggest general principles?

    >> Most important is the nature of the governing regime that is attacked. If it is riven by divisions and internal antagonisms, it can fall easily at the least blow. But if the elites are high in asabiya, they will prove to be resilient even to catastrophic, decapitating blows.

    >> Next, survival requires well-articulated institutional structures for upward mobility. Romans ran elections every year and repeatedly replaced all magistrates, which were killed in the battles of the Second Punic War, from quaestors up to consuls.

    >> Switching to the attackers, capturing an enemy leader is much better than killing him, because it temporarily clogs the succession pipe, accelerates elite confusion and defection, and can result in systemic collapse.

    >> There is usually a limited time to exploit leadership decapitation. The attacker needs to move fast, ideally taking control of the capital and state territory, and implementing a program of whole-sale elite replacement.

    >> Perhaps the most surprising — and robust — generalization is that capturing the leader (instead of assassinating him) is a much more effective way of winning and, eventually, imposing regime change.

      1. fjallstrom

        Reddit removed the content but from the comments I gather it was another Iranian video, this time mocking the Trump purge of the military.

  8. debi

    Plenty of crummy landing strips in Canada’s North.

    “With superior performance characteristics, the Dash 8-400 can operate in challenging conditions including on unpaved runways, in hot and high environments, and in remote communities where airport infrastructure may be lacking.”

    https://dehavilland.com/dash-8-400/

    1. amfortas

      allow me to toss a stick under your still:
      https://x.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/2041228700482429124

      or 2:
      https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/the-fragmentationist-grand-strategy
      (im in love with this woman,lol)

      or 3:
      https://www.equator.org/articles/the-reckoning-hormuz-iran-war

      take care of yerself, hon.
      touch some grass or pet a monkey or whatever folks do over there.
      burnouts no fun.
      hell, i run the risk just gooning to the warporn, let alone marshaling facts and collating like you do,lol.
      surely that place is covered up with buddhist temples with gardens and such.

    2. Arkady Bogdanov

      I’ve noticed an interesting new tactic being undertaken by the Iranians, which I have no doubt you have seen snippets of:

      The Iranians are showing images of identification documents at the crash and skirmish sites within Iranian territory. Many on Twitter are discussing this. People seem to be concluding that these people were involved in the raids- they are IDs of military contractors, or rear echelon support personnel (so far). There is lots of confusion about this.

      I pointed out to Will Schryver that this is likely a very unique and innovative propaganda tactic. No way were these people involved in those raids. I would guess that these ID documents were removed from US/Israeli bases that have been overrun, such as in Iraq, evacuated bases, such as in some of the GCC countries, or possibly even infiltrated installations further to the west, such as in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, or Israel itself. I think these ID’s are being shown as bizarre Easter Eggs to divert intel/ISR resources, and to intimidate all of the individuals fighting against the Iranian people, either directly or working as direct support personnel. The message is that we are looking for you, we are going to tell the world who you are, what you have done, and where you live and work. The jarring, out of place display of these identification documents is going to get them a great deal of notice. Helluva propaganda tactic- both very subtle while simultaneously powerful and brutal. Think of how you would feel if you saw an Iranian holding your ID, or the ID of someone you know, on a distant battlefield where the Iranians inflicted tremendous damage on the military you are a part of or supporting. Might you worry about what you might find when you go home, or worry about your family or community? Damn.
      Seems there is a reason that the Iranian civilization has endured for so many millennia.

  10. lyman alpha blob

    Arkady’s summary mentions the possibility that a lot of soldiers were killed when the planes were shot down, but we’re not hearing any mention of deaths yet. Someone pointed out in the comments over the last few days, and I also recently read in Seth Harp’s book The Fort Bragg Cartel, that only regular soldiers show up in the official casualty counts. When Delta Force operators are killed in action, the government just denies they were ever there in the first place.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I did not include it but there were Twitter reports of “many civvies” as in civilians, in the images, or at least non-military.

      US logistics are entirely outsourced. So neither they nor mercs nor CIA/intel would be subject to this reporting.

      I believe it was Wilkerson who recently said the US always under-reports military deaths on a current basis (as in aggregates as opposed to individual cases). And casualties are not reported.

      See also:

      I left this on the cutting room floor:

      1. Randall Flagg

        How long can all these deaths be hidden from the next of kin and the soldiers families anyway?

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          You are talking past the issues that I explained above:

          1. Many of the deaths are sure to be non-military and not subject to required reporting to families. That also means they would never be counted as military deaths.

          2. Required reporting to next of kin does not translate into getting good aggregate #s.

          1. Revenant

            I read somewhere on Realist War Twitter that in order to receive US death in service insurance payouts, families of killed servicemen have to sign an NDA if required. Perhaps a US service person can chip in but that seems like the mechanism by which any and all casualty figures can be manipulated by USG if true.

          2. albrt

            Still, it is strange that we are not getting stories about “Help, my husband is a contractor who does vague stuff for a ‘company’ in the middle east and I haven’t heard from him for three weeks.” If we had an independent media that sort of thing should be coming out by now.

        2. Wukchumni

          We get rather instant info on the latest mass murder spree, including the name of the perp and victims, but can’t cut through the fog of war.

        3. Geo

          How long? An interview with Pat Tillman’s mother almost a decade after his death:

          “McChrystal was involved in orchestrating the cover-up,” Mary Tillman said. “He falsified the Silver Star. He was very aware that Pat was killed by friendlies. His death was lied about by the military, by the government. But he’s not an isolated incident. This happens on a regular basis. It’s a systemic problem. It’s not isolated to the Bush Administration. It’s happened for years. And it’s tolerated. Troops (are) being killed and the military lies to the family about what really happened.”
          https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/sports/pat-tillmans-mom-accuses-mcchrystal-of-cover-up/2092345/

      2. lyman alpha blob

        Yikes. 6,500 deaths seems like an exaggeration, especially with far more military deaths than civilian. It took many years for the death count to get that high in Iraq/Afghanistan. I think it would be very hard to hide that many. But it has to be more than the dozen or so they’ve admitted to so far.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          That is why I did not include it. It may not be hugely wrong (as in only too 1/3 high) IF you include deaths of CIA, mercs, and civilians (as in logistics, who will greatly outnumber military staffers). Recall reports of Iran hits on buildings in Israel with all sorts of war-connected personnel, where I would bet at least some were American. The US bases across the Middle East have no bunkers and Iran has been hitting them very hard.

          We had air supremacy when we went into Iraq. The county is flat as a pancake so not at all favorable to defenders. IMHO much bigger death counts are entirely plausible.

          1. lyman alpha blob

            Yeah, the thing that threw me was the 640 civilian deaths compared to the overall total she is citing. That civilian number might be believable considering the hits on buildings.

            I remember that in the first day or so of the war, there was a report of a building being hit in one of the West Bank settler areas. One early report said it was a bomb shelter, but later reports speculated that it was a gathering of military and intelligence personnel. The fact that the Zionists aren’t squawking about civilian deaths leads me to believe it was the latter.

            Anyway, I agree that the total death count is likely much higher than what has been reported.

            1. mrsyk

              I wonder if the author of the tweet is referring to “casualty” numbers as “deaths”. The numbers make more sense if it is dead plus wounded.

              1. lyman alpha blob

                The X account looks to be from a pro-Palestinian poster involved with the flotillas. It would make more sense if she meant total casualties rather than deaths. It also occurred to me that given her affiliation, maybe it’s possible she’s referring to both Israeli and US deaths. I’m sure the Zionist entity is not going to report on any major hits to their military facilities. Hard to tell when she’s not saying where she got those numbers from.

    2. flora

      I heard something remarkable on this mornings news, one of the national news channels, not FOX. A well known national reporter claimed the downed helicopters were the first US manned aircraft shot down in Iran. Seems to contradict a lot of other information that’s come out. Are we entering a new ‘Five O-Clock Follies’ era in national war news?

  11. The Rev Kev

    I can’t get my head around the fact that it was Grossi that told them that their might, might be nuclear material in this region – and that they were stupid enough to believe him. Of course this amounts to proof that Grossi as head of the IAEA was giving the US and Israel actionable intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program. Why would the Iranians ever have dealings with him ever again or the IAEA for that matter.

    On a side note, I personally hope that there were no troopers aboard those C-130s when they crashed. Losing the air crews would be bad enough but to include so many troopers would be far worse. I guess that it will be up to Iranian forensics teams to determine the exact model of C-130s that went down and try to retrieve as many remains as possible. What would make it worse is that being SOF troopers, the US would not be required to list their deaths at all.

    1. Christopher Mann

      I actually hope everyone on board was killed. These people are part of an organisation that killed 160 little girls just because their dads were in the IRGC on the first day of their perfidious, illegal war of agression. The more of these people that are destroyed and the sooner, the better. These monsters are not deserving of sympathy. How can anyone who has children feel safe with these sadistic creatures on the loose? And please don’t give me that ‘troops’ hogwash designed to humanize these depraved scumbags who are today’s Waffen SS. The only following orders defense did not work then and does not work now.

      1. Steve H.

        I was sitting in a Starbucks some years ago. A military recruiter sat with a young couple, 25- to 30-sh, well dressed in a preppy way (he had a pastel sweater over a collared shirt). When they started, the couple leaned forward as the recruiter pointed to items on the contract. Over the next twenty minutes, he began to wilt, four bends to his back, as she continued to animatedly engage with the recruiter. I read it as him realizing she was selling him out for the bonus. I seem to recall him signing something, head in hand, but we left before they did.

        Gandalf: Many that live deserve death. And some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then do not be too eager to deal out death in judgement. For even the very wise cannot see all ends.

      2. Alphonse

        None of us are innocent. We use devices and eat food produced with slave labour. Our countries (probably every one everywhere) are built by conquerors on foundations of death. We support leaders who are monsters (on all sides). This is true of us, it is true of those we fight. I say this without shame. We are all perpetrators, we are all victims.

        This, I believe, is the true lesson of the Holocaust, so utterly missed by the Germany of today. Not to pleasure in victimhood or (as many do) guilt. Not to accuse others but to understand ourselves. Not to seek the Jew within, but the German. We should not hope to slice away our darker nature, only to understand it and keep it in its proper place.

        We become monsters, I believe, not when we hurt others, but when we forget their humanity. The tragedy that may follow the massacre of innocents is if the rage of the fathers leads them also to forget. Eye for eye is not the way.

        We think we can have reasons for hate. Hate: the desire not to negotiate or compromise, but that something cease to exist. Something – someone. Hate is the dark side of purity. But whatever we reasons we have hate burns away. No matter how deserving the target, all you spread is hate. The medium is the only message. A monster is one who hate monsters. In the end, even the hatred of hate leaves only hate.

        I suppose even our hate serves a purpose. It reminds us that we are human.

        1. Giovanni Barca

          So I used to have a pair if Nike shsoes. Nike ran sweatshops backed by death aquads and the Ibdinesian military at the time. Thing is, I didn’t buy them. They were hand me downs from a cousin 19 years younger and 9 inches taller than me. Did I cooperate with evil? Due to my congenitally pretzelled spine my feet don’t hit the ground at the same angle so I eat shoes. I was Stanley Homemaker with a toddler and an another one on the way, so I saved the cost of a pair of shoes (these sneakers were alas aming the mioat comfortable and longer lasting shoes I ever wore or perhaps two or three so as to be able to spend more on boiks and crayons for my kid. Does that lessen my participation in sweatshop evil? I dunno, even buying an I phone–hell even vuying a goddamn emerald–is not really the moral equivalent of bombing a fleeping school. Ok we’re all Sinners, sure. But Paolo and Francesca aren’t where Judas is (per Dante). Much of the cooperation with evil is outside any practical level of control for those without tonsures or begging bowls. I can’t walk to a gig with a guitar case a saxophone case an amp a mic stand a gig bag….especially if said gig is 40 miles away. So someone needs a car and isomeone is likely to have to be me. I bought gas, this war is about oil (or something), therefore I am complicit? No. No school or bridge bomber me. I don’t wish death on the GIs. I wish them safe–and sorry. I want their repentance–in the broadest sense. It need not be religious. I want them volunteering in soup kitchens and at school fundraisers. I want them voting for peaceful candidates who will repair roads and schools and defund their stupid planes and their stupid helicopters and their stupid bombs. I want them to try to atone. But the respinsibility is with the president and his patrons and psycho-phants.

        2. hk

          (Might be going off into nuttyland, so bevwarned.)

          I’ve always thought that the central message of Christianity, the real thing, is that we are all sinners and that we cannot, by ourselves, reach the state of grace. Indeed, the recognition of this sinfulness is the requirement of Christian faith (this is something I was repeatedly reminded by priests when I was growing up). And this is an idea totally alien to people who call themselves Christians in US, even Catholics (I don’t know too many American Orthodox, whether Eastern or Oriental, to gauge them.) The beam is always in the other people’s eyes. “We” are always righteous. Because we are so righteous, we are excused by God no matter what evil we do for that alleged “righteousness,” which is same as whatever we fancy…because we are righteousness, by definition.

          I’d say God have mercy on us, but I don’t know if we deserve any. I can only shudder at what God has in store for us, for, to paraphrase Lincoln, for God is just.

      3. redleg

        I’m an Army veteran and i approve of this message.
        Erosion of capabilities through attrition appears to be the only way to stop this senseless violence. Hopefully they’ll send the entirity of ICE and CBP paramilitaries over there too.

    2. Lefty Godot

      If Iran ever decides to use Israeli-style assassination tactics, Grossi sits near the top of the list of deserving candidates. He has been anything but a neutral enforcer of international norms, which is what someone in that position should be. It’s gobsmacking how the side that howls the most about freedom, democracy, and the rules-based international order continually lies, cheats, and violates all the norms it claims to be defending.

  12. Adam1

    Trying to steal Iran’s enriched uranium has got to be about the most hairbrained idea anyone has floated. Iran was last estimated to have had about 1,000 lbs of enriched uranium and enriched uranium is not something it toss into a backpack and carry out the back door. The total weight of the uranium and any containment containers likely was 2,000 lbs or more. If the Little Bird helicopters were indeed used you’d need 2 just to get the uranium out let alone more to get the SOF out.

    1. hereweare

      I think you’d need more than two Little Birds for the uranium, as you’d want to keep all the containers widely spaced apart.

      1. Revenant

        It is supposedly stored by Iran as UF6 gas. As a gas, it doesn’t have the density to go critical. You’d just load the cylinders and hope you didn’t have to sit on them: I doubt there’s cargo capacity for lead shielding on top of UF6 gas.

        The whole exfiltration idea is absurd. How many men must Iran have protecting that storage? How many cylinders does it take to hold 450kg Uranium equivalent of UF6?

        It is supposedly 0.676kg U238 for 1kg UF6. Slightly more for U235. Call it a factor of 0.7. So 1kg U is 1.4kg UF6. 450kg U is therefore 630kg UF6.

        Density of UF6 in solid phase is 5g/cm3 so a cubic metre would weigh 5 tonnes. But the gas is much less dense and, worse, if you want to keep it gaseous at room temp, you need to keep it at reduced pressure, say 0.5 atmospheres, so it is even less dense.

        I think any mission sent in to the UF6 storage facility had only one mission: to blow it up. Rather than fight their way in and out with a lot of heavy metal gas cylinders etc.

        1. tegnost

          Since “fog of war”, we have no real idea whats going on, and one harebrained scheme no one has brought to my attention is that the planes did land, and the occupants exfiltrated into the mountains. I know that hiding in the desert for days is one of the trainings my ex seal buddy endured. I do think it’s possible as a point of the spear plus a nice hollywood blockbuster appeal.
          Just throwing stuff at the wall here, and saw a spot that hadn’t been sullied yet and we’ll be the last to know & etc…

        3. Kouros

          That would have been like blowing up a dirty atomic bomb and being a nuclear attack on Iran – spun as if Iranians did it on themselves, eh?

          The more I see Israelis (civies and gov officials) and American officials talking, the more I think that they believe they are so smart and the rest are just shmucks easy to con…

    2. Pokey

      I have been concerned that a successful effort to harvest nuclear material would allow Trump to escape the trap he enthusiastically stepped into and that no one would be reminded that Iran voluntarily agreed to surrender that material before it was attacked. If that is the mission that failed, humiliation seems inevitable.

  13. Wukchumni

    Isfahan-star movie pitch:

    The story revolves around a lavish budget and production costs of losses of aircraft and helicopters not too far from Ur-anium, think Blues Brothers in terms of wrecking vehicles on the set. Hilarity ensues when their cover story crumbles as the truth comes out. Dustin Hoffman provides a cameo as a goat wrangler.

    1. Steve H.

      There are now three improbable scenarios I now consider plausible:
      : Use of nuclear weapons;
      : A military coup, soft or not; and now
      : Trump throwing Israel under the bus upon realizing he’s been suckered by Bibi and Wiles.
      This last scenario involves Trump being originally elected as a counter-elite. Responsibly speculating, if he declared AIP*C a ‘Fifth Column’ organization, he could start rounding up Senators as enemies of the State. Support could come from military not wanting to die for Israel, and fits with underlying Dominionist ideology. It would provoke a spasm of invoking the 25th Amendment, but Vance works for Theil, who is *ahem* ‘German-American’. And it could foam the runway for cancelling pesky elections.

      Two wildcards:
      : Referencing Watergate and Deep Throat, Janet said ‘Look for the pissed-off people.” Pam Bondi could fit that bill.
      : Based on priors of standing next to Bernie during the shanking, and possibly being a military honorable patriot unhappy with intelligence state machinations, I have an irrational sliver of hope that Tulsi Gabbard might still punch back.

      The only thing certain, is that uncertainty is increasing.

      1. flora

        re: #3 “Trump throwing Israel under the bus upon realizing he’s been suckered by Bibi and Wiles.”

        T is Miriam’s toy goy. T doesn’t want the JFK experience. Golden pager? So, nevah gonna happen, imo. / ;)

      3. fjallstrom

        Two more improbable scenarios:

        * Israel taps out (sub scenarios can be added for how this comes about), Trump agrees to withdraw for Israel’s sake.

        * Iran’s government collapses.

        Or to put it another way: given that negotiations are pointless with an enemy that murders under negotiation and keeps no treaty, escalation either continues or it doesn’t, and the US is running out of non-nuclear escalation options. For it to not continue, one or more participants need to yield.

        Or actually, there is another improbable scenario: the escalation stalls at some point but the war continues for some time at that level of escalation. Given Hormuz, I am stumped as to what that would look like. Then again, world war one public opinion in 1914 expected the boys home in time for Christmas.

  14. Vodkatom

    I buy the uranium heist story. But one small quibble:

    “ The detail from Arkady above C-130 propellers being damaged apparently via hitting the ground while rotating would seem to be dispositive.”

    I saw commentary over last 24 hours on this claim pointing out that the SOF versions of the C130 have composite propellers which would snap on hard impact. They would deform under heat like a fire. Quick google searches backs this up.

    I leave it the aviation crash investigators for a more conclusive interpretation.

    Doesn’t necessarily change the big picture, but implies planes were already on the ground when hit.

    1. Carolinian

      Larry Johnson’s speculation is that the raid on Isfahan was already set up and waiting with the small helicopters part of it, and that it turned into a pilot rescue out of coincidence. He makes much of the weapons officer being a colonel–normally just a lieutenant or captain–whose special knowledge meant capture had to be prevented.

      Given that many in the military are displeased with Trump perhaps the truth of what happened will be leaked sooner rather than later.

      1. N

        Only reason a colonel rides in the back of the F15E is if he is mission commander running an op.

        1. David

          According to the military message boards there are several reasons and that is not one of them. You don’t have much control over an operation in the back of an F15.

          The reasons given are mostly the below.

          1. There is a big shortage of aircrew.
          2. Colonels are still operational personnel and still perform operational tasks, though would tend to fly far less often.
          3. Personnel need to perform a certain number of flying hours to stay qualified.
          4. Someone wanting combat experience or glory hunting. Bare in mind this is the first time since 2003 the US Air Force has been involved in combat operations against someone that can fight back, and 2003 is debateable.
          5.this is my possibility and could be wrong. But in the RAF there was a lot of rank inflation of pilots to try and prevent them pissing off to become civilian pilots on better pay and conditions. This has meant you had air crew with much higher ranks than their actual role required.

          And of course the person who said it was a colonel was Trump, with as far as i know no further confirmation. And lets face it he talks shite a lot of the time.

          In WW2 it was not uncommon for colonels and higher to go on combat missions, particularly the bombing runs over Europe. It became more restricted after one or two were captured and there were fears that senior enough officers with access to enigma intelligence might tell the Germans the codes were cracked.

  15. MicaT

    The pictures of the C-130 engines/propellers show them to be in the feathered position. This means they were not operating. The oil pressure drops ( which controls the propeller position) and they go to the feathered position which is the normal position when off. I can’t find a good way to insert a picture but Google has lots of images.

    As the C-130’is a high wing plane for there to be a ground strike of the propeller the wing angle would have to be severe. And the propellers are not bent like what happens in a ground strike as the blade tips are either curved back or forwards depending on power application and speed of the plsne at the time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propeller_strike

    Also from videos I’ve looked at there is no evidence of impact gouging in the terrain behind the planes. The 2 left side engines are right where they should be meaning the wing was intact and wasn’t ripped off the plane.
    Looks to me given the debris field they were stationary when they were destroyed.

    1. hereweare

      Images of feathered propellers.

      (Select some text – here, ‘feathered propellers’ – click on ‘link’ just above the box you write the comment in, between b&i and quote, and paste in a link to Google images or wherever. And don’t worry that, for Google images search pages, the links are huge – only the computers see them.)

  16. Tom Stone

    Trump is Insane, anyone looking at his behaviour objectively sees that.
    However this is simply too frightening for most to accept even when it has become undeniable to most.
    And that’s where we are, a deranged autocrat with his finger on the big red button, one who is enraged and who has no restraints.
    Recognizing and acting on this threatens a lot of ricebowls, making it unlikely to be addressed by those who could act to keep things from going nuclear.

  17. Wukchumni

    Since it was a F-15 Eagle that got the ball rolling on this misadventure, i’m calling it:

    Operation Eagle Flaw

      1. pjay

        I’m sure the Dems would love to make this a partisan issue and tar Trump with a major military failure. But this is tricky, because the purported mission was the heroic rescue of our valiant downed airman and Dems cannot be seen as denigrating or questioning such a narrative. We’ll see how it plays out, and whether any of the larger questions raised by Yves excellent summary today are raised in the media or by the “support our troops” CIA Democrats.

      2. David

        I can’t help but feel a lot of the animosity felt by the American state to elite is due to embarrassment over that shambles.

  18. Carolinian

    Thanks. Clearly the real crisis for Americans is what to do about Trump and what to do about a MSM that refuses to ask that question or at least shies away from it. As long as “number goes up” and taxes are cut and Israel is made a priority the elites have been more than willing to tolerate him.

    And Israel is a big part of it since AIPAC acts as a kind of political protection racket to keep incumbents like Lindsey in office even though they have little inherent political appeal. Netanyahu likes to say that “America is easily moved” but what he really means is that our political class is easily bought.

    But the devil always demands his due and American involvement in the Middle East mess is that price that those incumbents are willing to pay at least up to now. Sounds like the unhealthy arrangement is finally meeting its nemesis.

  19. Doggo

    I do not believe the C-130 in this picture crashed. (link to picture) It looks to me like it burned down while parked on the ground.

    Reason I say this is that the propellers are feathered. On most turboprops, the propellers automatically go into the feathered mode during engine shutdown. The only time you would see the prop in this position is if the plane was parked gracefully, or if during flight the pilot deliberately put it in the feathered position because of an emergency engine failure (you need to feather the prop in the failed engine to reduce drag).

    In the wreckage pic you see both of the engines on the left wing in the locations where you would expect to see them (i.e. not spread out over a wide area post-crash), and both of them have the props feathered. It’s possible but very unlikely that both engines failed and the pilot feathered them during flight, and then crash-landed. Yes a missile hit could’ve taken out both engines, but then the wreckage would be strewn out over a far larger area, which is not the case here.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Not that it matters much, but it is possible that the planes landed normally and were then popped by Iran when they were on the ground rather than being scuttled by the US as authorities have claimed. I’d imagine it’s a lot easier to hit a stationary target.

  20. Jason Boxman

    I am providing it with the Marjorie Taylor Greene commentary.

    As of 8:50 am eastern, the opening tweet shows as from Korobochka; was this intended to be an MGT tweet?

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Sorry, fixed. Twitter often does not put new tweet embeds on the clipboard, as in doing a second in succession does not replace the first one.

  21. ChrisFromGA

    Who Can It Be Now

    Sung to the tune of, “Who can it be?” by Men at Work

    Who can it be, postin’ in my feed?
    Go away, attention’s what you need
    Can’t you see that it’s late at night?
    I’m really tired and you’re not feeling right
    All I wish is to be alone
    Stay away, please put down your iPhone
    Best off if they invoke twenty-five
    Don’t post again, I’ll only run & hide

    [Chorus]

    Who can it be now
    Who can it be now?
    Who can it be now?
    Who can it be now?

    Who can it be cursin’ at the walls?
    Mocking God, a thunderbolt might call
    If He hears, in Hell you’ll stay
    You’ll be trapped, and there you’ll spend your days
    Have you done harm, why not keep to yourself?
    Is something wrong with your state of mental health?
    They’re getting scared, on Fox and Friends
    Here they come, those feelings again

    Who can it be now? 4x

    Will cabinet men come to take you away?
    Why don’t they act quickly?
    It’s in your future, I can see
    It’s not a fantasy

    Yeah

    [interlude]

    oh-oh-oh

    Who can it be now? 4x

    Oh-oh-oh (who can it be now?)
    Oh-way-ah-ay-oh (who can it? who can it?)
    Oh-oh-oh (who can it be now)
    Oh-way-ah (aye yeah oh)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SECVGN4Bsgg&list=RDjYTfV5o2ZMY

  22. The Rev Kev

    ‘The IRGC released an image of a U.S. soldier’s skull found inside downed C-130 wreckage. A transport plane that carries 64-92 American troops.’

    That jogged a memory from the failed Operation Eagle Claw back in 1980. There was this photo of this old boy tribesman at the time and he was holding open a small box. Inside was the charred foot of one of the Americans that died that day. Some stuff you see you never forget.

    1. Yalt

      Per Middle East Spectator:

      UPDATE: After further investigation, the skull image has been verified but seems to belong to an Iranian soldier in a vehicle that was targeted with a hellfire missile when attempting to approach the landing site.

      Unfortunately, Iranian state media rushed to conclusions by reporting unverified information from the landing site, where the wreckage of several Iranian cars was accidentally mixed among the destroyed planes..

      2. The Rev Kev

        So you are telling me that some random Iranian soldier was hit by a Hellfire missile and his intact skull just happened to be blown into the wreckage of that plane? Yeah, nah! And since when do Iranian cars come equipped with huge propeller blades or look like small helicopters?

        1. N

          I think they are saying the entire skull image was from a nearby Iranian truck filled with soldiers.

          1. The Rev Kev

            Yeah, still not buying it. How many years will it be until we learn the real death toll from this op. Not anytime soon, that is for sure. So where are the images of all the other skulls that were blown across this area? The Iranians would have been sure to publish them.

        2. Yalt

          Here’s the relevant post, if you want context.

          https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30350#

          MES didn’t elaborate; a brief discussion in the comments here yesterday suggested that we’re looking at wreckage from both helicopters and small Iranian cars and the skull is in one of the cars.

          So not a “random Iranian soldier” but someone tasked with investigating the site.

          I don’t think MES would withdraw the claim without reason. I also don’t think it really changes the narrative all that much.

    2. Louis Fyne

      Citation? (smells like AI engagement bait) Pro-Iran twitter lies as much as the US government, while the official IRGC releases are much more restrained, but more flowery with their prose, than pro-Iran engagement farmers or Pentagon releases.

      just being honest. all sides lie in war, the winning/confident side tends to lie less extremely

    3. ccg

      “Some stuff you see you never forget.”

      It seems you don’t forget much at all, Rev. I picture you in a room with a dozen monitors and a million bookmarks on your browser.

  23. Christopher Fay

    This being a catastrophe would explain Trump’s disappearance over the weekend. I’m beginning to think he won’t make it to the end of the year.

    1. hereweare

      “The White House and the Pentagon were uncharacteristically silent in the 36 hours after the F-15E went down. But in the background, they were working overtime.

      The President remained in the Oval Office throughout the drama, receiving constant updates from Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, according to Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary.”
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/05/how-us-pulled-off-most-daring-operation-in-history/

      (36 hours without sleep might go some way toward explaining his ‘f’in crazy bast**** praise Allah’ Truth Social post.)

  24. johnnyme

    Jerusalem Governorate reports 7 attempts to bring sacrificial animals into Al-Aqsa Mosque

    The Jerusalem Governorate said Sunday that seven documented attempts were made during this year’s Jewish Passover to bring sacrificial animals into Al-Aqsa Mosque, the highest number recorded since 1967.

    In a statement, the governorate said Israeli occupiers in two of the attempts managed to reach the vicinity of Jerusalem’s Old City with the animals as part of repeated efforts to perform religious rituals inside the mosque compound.

    It described the attempts as a dangerous escalation and part of efforts to impose new realities at the site they refer to as the Temple Mount by seeking to slaughter animals inside the compound.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Simple solution. You try to bring sacrificial animals into Al-Aqsa Mosque and the police will shoot those animals. Not that that will ever happen. Can’t wait for the Third Temple to be built though. Then it will be animal slaughter left and right on a daily basis. Should make a great tourist attraction. Such is life in the only democracy in the Middle East.

  25. wsa

    Insanity: Israel just struck Iran’s South Pars. This compoud is responsible for about 50% of Iran’s petrochemical output. Combined with the Mahshahr petrochemical complex hub hit days ago, this is a massive blow to global energy markets already rattled by the war and Hormuz tensions. Methanol, ammonia, polymers shipped to Asia are now all disrupted.

    https://x.com/ahandjani/status/2041136854238441500

  26. Mark Gisleson

    A late thanks. These summaries are enormously helpful because half my YouTube homepage is filled with repackaged old Mearsheimer, Macgregor and Larry Johnson clips, many with updated headlines suggesting fresh content. Then I click and realize it’s a two-day old interview. The AI podcasts are even worse as they take their presentations and keep updating/remixing them with fresher content.

    NC is still my best go-to source for news. Please don’t ever forsake print for podcasting!

    1. Butch

      That last sentence. A podcast couldn’t possibly contain as much well organized information without running way long. That’s without the commentariat, which is amazing. Yves has created and fostered one of the finest resources I’ve encountered.

      1. Alex Cox

        Hear hear! Podcasters tend to repeat themselves egregiously – did they take some stupid class in rhetoric and believe this enhances their credibility? Whereas the written words of Yves, Conor, the commentariat, and B at MoA, are concise and priceless.

  27. Wukchumni

    They must be laughing in the Middle Kingdom, as Operation Eagle Flaw took place on 4-4, which in Chinese numerology means:

    ‘Death-Death’

    1. Quintian and Lucius

      In fairness, if anyone in the present regime knew that (…Colby?) they probably felt confident it would be Death-Death for the other guy.

      1. Wukchumni

        Tetraphobia is a real thing, and most high rises in China don’t have a 4th floor, or a 14th, 24th or 34th floor.

  28. KD

    Many of the readers of this Blog do not support this war on the part of the United States and Israel. However, many people in DC do support this war, and have been dreaming about it and planning it for many, many years. On one hand, you can say Trump is a madman for launching it, but its a collective madness, and who can forget John McCain’s performance of “Bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran?” in the presidential debates.

    My guess is that the supporters of this war at some point soon are going to find a way to remove Trump, but then the spin will be, okay, Trump did this thing and it was a mistake, but now the US needs to make something positive out of it (e.g. extend, elongate, perpetuate the war). This gives the people a symbolic sacrifice which will mollify public opinion but provides cover for continued prosecution.

    I don’t think that means those opposed to the war should not want to see Trump removed, he is not in a place where he should have access to a nuclear trigger. Just that I think the removal of Trump will play into the hands of the neocons and lead to the elongation of the war.

    1. Bugs

      Exactly. Take a scoot over to the right wing websites and the worldview is that Trump may be a blowhard, but he’s doing God’s work. Even the mainstream American apparatchik on the Australian ABC interview above had to make sure that he said that the Iranian “regime” had to be removed, and repeated the usual shibboleths about it being a sponsor of terrorism, etc. There’s another parallel reality where this war is OK but it just has to be done according to the neoliberal / neocon consensus norms and procedures, with proper language and serious faces.

      1. Dwight

        Yes, Miller even said that the war of choice is becoming a war of necessity, never considering that the way to save the global economy is to immediately end this war of aggression.

      2. jrkrideau

        Even the mainstream American apparatchik on the Australian ABC interview above had to make sure that he said that the Iranian “regime” had to be removed,

        It took me a couple of moments to realize that Miller was referring to Iran. I thought he was speaking of the USA. It made more sense that way.

      1. Samuel Conner

        Barbara Ann parody was in context of the original hostages crisis, which overlapped the 1980 presidential campaign.

        McCain’s remarks were in context of 2008 campaign.

      2. lyman alpha blob

        I went to see Bo Diddley play at Dartmouth college in the late 80s. Unfortunately, he also did a version of it.

    3. Dr. John Carpenter

      I agree totally. Removing Trump will no more end this war than it would fix any other domestic problem attributed to him. TPTB might allow Trump to be the scapegoat, but this has been a long time goal and I don’t see that being abandoned, especially not if they can’t pin the L on Trump.

    4. pjay

      Yes, absolutely. That the “opposition” to Trump would include the likes of John Bolton, William Kristol, the Cheney clan, the Kagan clan (including those linked to the Democrats), etc., while our Establishment memory-holes the atrocities of Bush-Cheney and the war-mongering of the revered McCain tells us all we need to know. Trump is our current “bad cop” proxy doing the dirty work; he’s the perfect fall-guy who will eventually get the blame by our court historians. But as you say, he is just the latest tool (in every sense of that word) carrying out a long-term project that has major bipartisan support. A very dangerous tool, granted, whose impulsiveness might bring the whole thing down (here’s hoping!). But our War Machine makes use of the political resources available.

    5. Matthew

      “In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule.”

      — Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil

      The spotlight is on Trump because he’s pulling the trigger, would be the subject of the showiest of show trials if a new Nuremberg Trials ever came. But this is a legitimacy crisis, an ontological crisis–we’re in the throes. The degree to which the neoliberal worm has burrowed into all of our brains, behaviors. . . everything wants a reassessment, recalibration of which we’re hardly capable. The destructive momentum of the machine. . . Maybe if nothing else this prompts wholesale moves toward greater energy independence by all concerned. ..

      See The Uninhabitable Earth for the grimmest of previews.

      1. Science Officer Smirnov

        H.P. Lovecraft
        “As for the Republicans — how can one regard seriously a frightened, greedy, nostalgic huddle of tradesmen and lucky idlers who shut their eyes to history and science, steel their emotions against decent human sympathy, cling to sordid and provincial ideals exalting sheer acquisitiveness and condoning artificial hardship for the non-materially-shrewd, dwell smugly and sentimentally in a distorted dream-cosmos of outmoded phrases and principles and attitudes based on the bygone agricultural-handicraft world, and revel in (consciously or unconsciously) mendacious assumptions (such as the notion that real liberty is synonymous with the single detail of unrestricted economic license or that a rational planning of resource-distribution would contravene some vague and mystical ‘American heritage’…) utterly contrary to fact and without the slightest foundation in human experience? Intellectually, the Republican idea deserves the tolerance and respect one gives to the dead.”

        https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/441086-as-for-the-republicans—-how-can-one-regard-seriously

      2. Science Officer Smirnov

        H.P. Lovecraft

        “As for the Republicans — how can one regard seriously a frightened, greedy, nostalgic huddle of tradesmen and lucky idlers who shut their eyes to history and science, steel their emotions against decent human sympathy, cling to sordid and provincial ideals exalting sheer acquisitiveness and condoning artificial hardship for the non-materially-shrewd, dwell smugly and sentimentally in a distorted dream-cosmos of outmoded phrases and principles and attitudes based on the bygone agricultural-handicraft world, and revel in (consciously or unconsciously) mendacious assumptions (such as the notion that real liberty is synonymous with the single detail of unrestricted economic license or that a rational planning of resource-distribution would contravene some vague and mystical ‘American heritage’…) utterly contrary to fact and without the slightest foundation in human experience? Intellectually, the Republican idea deserves the tolerance and respect one gives to the dead.”

      3. dmoc1954

        A piece on the legitimacy crisis evolving into a ontological break:

        “It is this collapse of symbolic mediation that gives the present moment its disturbing clarity. When Trump says he will bomb Iranians “back to the Stone Age where they belong,” he exposes the underlying truth of a system that, having exhausted its economic and political legitimacy, can sustain itself only through the spectacle of force. Violence erupts openly, announced from podiums and broadcast worldwide. Evil turns, again, into banality.”

        https://savageminds.substack.com/p/the-iron-fist-drops-the-glove

    6. Pokey

      You forget that Bibi waited 47 years for president the as stupid as Trump.

      It’s not likely if assholes like Schumer and Jeffries have anything to do with it, but after we shitcan (spoken with hope) Trump, we could apologize to the world for electing a madman and promise not to let it happen again. We probably would not keep that promise, but that would be no surprise.

  29. Quintian and Lucius

    I don’t agree with most any of her domestic politics, but MTG has a real future (regardless of her protests) if we still have electoral democracy through the next couple of presidential cycles. She got out good and early and has moved from distancing herself from the admin to opposing it from the heartland right, and even through tweet the way she communicates is personal, evocative, and believable.

    Re Hezbollah air superiority – one phone video isn’t necessarily the highest calibre of evidence, but the claim is consistent with what we know of Israel’s strained air defense (and the north wouldn’t likely be the major priority for AD outside of Haifa – unclear where that video was taken exactly). If the claim is correct it is really astonishing that in 2026 warfare a belligerent can be conducting what seems to be a successful ground offensive (Israel into southern Lebanon) while leaving itself overwhelmingly exposed from the air, with the two domains having relatively little to do with another, at least to my amateur understanding. At the least it doesn’t seem Hezbollah and the IDF have nearly achieved the Russo/Ukrainian drone/infantry integration that’s become the new staple of territorial warfare.

    1. Es s Ce Tera

      Her calling out Trump for the very un-Christian nature of his Easter tweet will now be what many Christians remember about her. And Christian leaders of every denomination, including the evangelists, should have done the same. So yes – I agree MTG is now elevated higher than Trump in terms of integrity. Now we have two politicians, Talarico and MTG, who seem to have solid Christian principles and credibility.

      I wonder if those Christian leaders who prayed together for Trump are regretting having done so.

      1. Matthew

        I have seen it said that Trump flirts with the idea of himself as Antichrist. The Antichrist, like Lucifer, is understood to be God’s instrument. Some portion of his following does see–and embrace–this possibility about him. The Antichrist, of course, initiates the Battle of Armageddon. Have had working people, cabbies and such, whispering this to us, quoting Revelations, here in Jamaica as we came and went the last few weeks.

        2. Huey

          Jsyk, Jamaica is hyper-Christian. Everything is due to demons and any decently-unlikeable figure is a potential anti-christ, to something like, at least half of the country.

          Quoting Revelations is, similarly, a past-time, and even something of a competition, for who can doomsay the most.

          Country-wide, any middle-aged/older Jamaican mentioning Armageddon is doing the equivalent of talking about the weather.

    2. lyman alpha blob

      RE: “…if we still have electoral democracy…”

      I was speaking directly with a high ranking US Congressperson yesterday. They are not a fan of Trump, but said there would be midterms later this year.

      I chimed in that if elections were to be cancelled, given that elections are held by states and not the federal government, and that there are a lot of state and local offices on the ballots too, there would need to be a lot more people complicit in the cancellation that just Trump, and there would be plenty of blame to go around were that to happen.

      Now if we only had decent candidates to vote for…

      1. KLG

        An acquaintance (MAGA adjacent if not full blown MAGA) mentioned to me that it might be a good idea if we cancelled or postponed the 2026 midterm elections given the seriousness of our situation. I replied that the election of 1864 was held during the Civil War, a rather more serious affair that he was probably taught to call the War Between the States, or just The War (pronounced Woh-Ah), or The Late Unpleasantness. He didn’t have much of an answer to that, or know that George B. McClellan – a war general fired for cause – was Lincoln’s opponent. Typical.

        As for decent candidates, it seems that in my life three basically honest candidates have run for president who had a chance to win: Barry Goldwater, Jimmy Carter, and Bernie Sanders, whatever their other “faults.”

      2. Quintian and Lucius

        Now if we only had decent candidates to vote for…

        I was myself leaving that possibility entirely to one side for the foreseeable future, the comment was really more of a Nat Wilson Turner inspired horse-race analysis for the fun of it. Nothing Americans like more than a convincing projection of sincerity (we’ve little idea what the real thing looks like).

    4. ChrisPacific

      The fact that MTG is now our voice of reason shows how bad things have gotten. She has plenty of awful beliefs and qualities, as I’m sure we’ll all be reminded if she does end up in power.

      I do give her credit for starting to use her brain (finally) and call Trump out on his hypocrisy. She does convey very convincingly that she is genuinely, personally offended at a lot of the things he has done, which is a greatly needed viewpoint and largely missing from the political space today (the best the Democrats can manage is ‘opportunistically and performatively offended’).

      This is going to be one of those things, like the Iraq war, that everybody positions themselves as having opposed after the fact but lined up to support at the time. The ones who genuinely did speak out against it in real time, like MTG, will find it an enduring source of political capital. Six months from now when there are shortages of everything and Trump’s name is mud, she will be able to say that she opposed this madness from the start.

  30. voislav

    On the C-130s (HT to Anthony Aguilar). These were MC-130J version, their propellers are 6-bladed composite carbon fiber not metal. These tend to crack and shatter on impact and can warp at high temperatures. So the warping of the propellers is likely a side effect of their destruction on the ground, not due to being shot down. This does not preclude the aircraft being forced landed/shot down and propellers surviving the event largely intact, only to be destroyed by US later to prevent capture.

    1. Cat Burglar

      Images of the burned aircraft confirm it: you can see the carbon fiber filaments sticking up in the air. A metal propeller might have melted, but not left filaments.

  31. The Rev Kev

    ‘Hadi Hoteit | هادي حطيط
    @HadiHtt
    MAJOR:
    According to Israeli channel 14:
    “Hezbollah fired an anti ship missile today and hit a British warship in front of Lebanese shores.’

    Nobody is going to admit the truth of whether this happened or not and it may take months if not years for the truth to come out. But if it did, then that was unforgivable. It was only in 2006 that a Hezbollah missile hit the Israeli ship ‘Hanit’ and killed four crew. So if this happened again, there would be no excuse-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Hanit

    2. jrkrideau

      Given that the UK has been an accessory to the USA in allowing US planes to operate from UK bases, it is no longer a neutral nation. My guess, if Hezbollah did attack it, it was under the impression that the RN ship was preparing to attack them or at the very least, gathering intelligence for Israel.

    2. dougie

      I am not about to go on TroofSoc to verify that this is legit, but if it is it may be worse than his deranged Easter post. WAY worse.

      2. The Rev Kev

        Somebody pointed out in comments that there is no time/date stamp so it is probably bogus after all. Thing is, it is half believable as this is the sort of thing that Trump is capable of saying.

    4. diptherio

      That’s an obvious photoshop job. See the wonky text in the last two lines? Dead giveaway.

      1. hereweare

        Maybe I’m missing some subtle humour on your part, and I’m most definitely not saying it’s genuine, but I can’t see any wonky text in the last two lines, despite looking and looking.

        1. Expat2uruguay

          Some of the letters look like they are bold, at the beginning and end of the penultimate line of text and at the end of the last line of text.Also, the last line of text looks like it’s foreshortened, squat.

  33. jefemt

    I dusted off my tin ht and came up with a dramatic false flag attack on Hegseth’s assembling of the US military top brass all in one locale in the next few days.

    Manufactured crisis, with many S L I C C potentialities for the next phases of Epstein Fury.

    I don’t polymarket, but I wonder if those sick f*cks have this one on their virtual chalk board?

  35. Tom Stone

    I will once again point out that every member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff obeyed what they knew were blatantly illegal orders, including the much praised Randy George.
    They violated their oath to “Defend the Constitution against all enemies Foreign and Domestic” and they betrayed the trust of the American People.
    They belong in Leavenworth, or better yet hung by the neck until dead and buried in a cesspit at a leper colony.

    And the same goes for the “Secretary of Whores”, Pete Hegseth.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        I have not run it down, but on of the good-on-detail YT talking heads (IIRC Chas Freeman but if not him, Larry Wilkerson), said that all of the war crimes definitions and principles in “international law” are also codified in US law. And that all members of the Armed Forces get instruction on that early in their training.

        2. amfortas

          thats my understanding, as well.
          i aint a lawyer, but ive “read the law” for a long time, a la Lincoln..especially bill of rights and this sort of human rights stuff, un charter type things… another road not taken, perhaps,lol.
          but sadly, i do not currently have the time or bandwidth to dig into the frelling rome statute. read it all before, but long ago.
          all that said, i am almost certain that its codified in usa law…not merely constitutionally incorporated…from back when our government sorta functioned.

        3. redleg

          We got that in the 90s as officers. It was an annual thing. The battalion would assemble all the officers and a JAG officer would go through the Laws of War and what constituted an illegal order. Ethics was part of the class as well. The senior NCOs supposedly received a similar class at the same time (I topped out at E5 before getting commissioned so was never part of that cadre). Junior enlisted would clean and inventory gear while the senior enlisted and officers were all in class.

          I can’t say if this is still the case. By the looks of things it’s not taken seriously if it is, because I see this administration publicly glorifying or threatening actions that are clear violations of UCMJ all of the time.

      2. JonnyJames

        Treaties signed by the pres. and ratified by the Senate are the law of the land. The UN Charter, and a whole lot more. Take your pick. But the unhinged emperor already said that the law is irrelevant.

        Carrying out illegal orders is a betrayal of the constitution. What a quaint notion eh. .

        But none of this is really matters. War criminals, banksters, pedophiles in high places, etc. are not held to account. The law is only to beat down the “little people”, like taxes. I don’t see it any different this time.

      3. Bugs

        This is one of your pet issues, that International Law only exists if the parties are willing to respect what’s on the page, and it can be interpreted many ways, &t. However, signed and ratified treaties are the law of the land in the United States, transcribed into federal law, and the penalties for violations are in the US Code. Up to a federal prosecutor to bring charges.

        A war of aggression is the supreme international crime and was prosecuted at Nuremberg. That international law stands as jurisprudential authority, and can be used by an ad hoc tribunal, like Nuremberg, against war criminals, like Trump.

        1. Aurelien

          You are, I’m afraid, conflating two types of law. International Law, including the UN Charter, applies to nations, and the US is clearly in violation of the Charter. That is not in dispute I hope, although since 1945 there has been an endless succession of mass visa-less entries into other countries, the last (I think) being Ukraine in 2022. But insofar as treaties become national law, treaties, which are between governments bind only governments. Where (as in the Geneva Convention) states are also required to take action domestically, they pass national implementing legislation to make sure that the content of the treaty is respected as it affects nationals of their country as individuals. Signatories therefore agree to teach the provisions of the GC and have them enforced. But that has nothing to do with International Law, and covers the behaviour of troops in conflict (what the lawyers like to call ius in bello. That’s completely different from whether a state has violated international law.

          The only situation I can imagine where these would be relevant would be if Trump gave a specific order for a military attack that was so clearly illegal under the GC (on a hospital or an old peoples’ home maybe) that there was no possible defence, or legal justification, and that the military commanders, knowing it was obviously illegal, nonetheless gave orders to carry it out. I was assuming that something like that had happened, although I haven’t seen it myself.

          It would, of course, be possible to convene an ad hoc court, give it retrospective jurisdiction over the US government and military, define a crime of aggression (which has not been used since Nuremberg and for good reasons) drag Trump and co before it and find them guilty in an afternoon. But any number can play at that game, and any country or group of countries could try to put people on trial for anything they like. Trump may have violated your Constitution, but I’d be interested to know which clause. In any event, once you start prosecuting people for violating the Constitution, then Trump himself could do the same thing to his enemies. Any number can play at that game too.

          I’m as much against Trump and his war as anyone and I personally hope that, at a minimum, it forces his resignation. But too much of the discourse on “law” these days is by people who have never even read the texts (and I as a non-lawyer have done that without sustaining damage) and much of it is typical of the lynch-mob mentality that took over the human rights industry in the 1990s and is still going strong on Youtube and the Interwebs. Some people want to put Putin on trial and some prefer Trump, but in each case it comes down to “people I don’t like should be locked up if we can find a legal justification somewhere.”

          It’s at times like this that I think of what Thomas More says in Robert Bolt’s play about the need for respect for law even if it doesn’t give you what you want:

          “William Roper: “So, now you give the Devil the benefit of law!”

          Sir Thomas More: “Yes! What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after the Devil?”

          William Roper: “Yes, I’d cut down every law in England to do that!”

          Sir Thomas More: “Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned ’round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man’s laws, not God’s! And if you cut them down, and you’re just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I’d give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety’s sake!”

          1. hk

            In the past, we did hang people for not quite getting that far in contravention of GC, etc: e.g. Japanese General Yamashita and his staff, as well as others, in the aftermath of World War 2. I will accept that, in strictly following the international law, prosecuting people for actual violations of international law will be more difficult than not, but, in practice, that has not always been the case. (Talking to Japanese officers who served during Wolrd War 2, most of them were very much of the view that so called war crimes trials were mostly directed at Japanese senior officers who survived the war that happened to be any good at what they did as soldiers–a Japanese colonel who got sacked after the Nomonhan Incident said it was a good thing he got sacked before the war, because he was actually competent at his job so, if he survived World War 2, he’d certainly have been prosecuted as a war criminal.) We can protest that that is not how it works, but, for what it’s worth, that is what the other side saw and knowing several specific cases, I can’t say they are necessarily wrong, notwithstanding the principles theoretically at work.

          2. Bugs

            Dear Sir: I conflated nothing. I stated the position of US law vis-à-vis International Law and the basis for prosecution in International Law for the crime at hand.

            Moreover, you confirmed my argument in your comment.

            1. fjallstrom

              IIRC, Von Stauffenberg and the other officers who attempted to assassinate Hitler and mount a coup planned to prosecute and hang every Nazi down to pretty low levels of command. The intended charges was conspiracy to commit murder.

              But the assassination failed and instead it was the officers who were executed.

              1. AG

                Just to play the stickler – in Germany at least, they love Valkyrie and the Wednesday Society – at the same time omitting that those men had no qualms over war against the USSR.

                The only reason to eventually carry it out was that victory was unlikely in their view. It was cold calculus. Which corresponds with the cancelled coup plans around 1938/39 when General Staff saw Hitler´s military endeavours eventually succeed.

                And after the risky but successful conquest of Scandinavia and France their criticism had vanished and with all conviction they could muster they started to prepare the biggest war mankind would ever see. Nobody forced them to.

                Were it not for the Red Army there would have never been any serious coup attemtps.

                Untouched by this remains their bravery and willingness to give their lives when they had to rise to the occasion.

                On the other hand, Norman Finkelstein just recently made the point that Mr. Hilter (pun intended) too, was a brave man when it came to actually fight in combat and risk his life. (That is WWI).

          4. amfortas

            thats one of my fave film clips, btw.
            and you are of course, right about all the ambiguity and two can play stuff.
            dude has definitely violated the constitution, since, de facto, this ‘war’ has been ongoing since last june, and no appeal or report to congress, under the warpowers act.
            of course the onus is on the congress,lol.
            masse an khanna(sp-2) have introduced such a thing, but i havent seen it go anywhere.
            the deliberate bombing of civiliant infrastructure is a clear violation..but iran went tit for tat…prolly complicates matters.
            but whatever. usa!!! violated the un charter before the ink was dry anyways…soon after fdr died and truman listened to the dulles brothers, et alia.
            “international law” is a dead letter, unless a nation can enforce it…which negates the need for it,lol.
            i reckon thats coming…usa and zionist occupier will be boycotted/blockaded by the world as pariahs, at some point….then theyll watch as we turn inward and kill ourselves.
            my only hope is that all these amurkin guns are eventually pointed in the right direction, and that we seal those fuckers in their bunkers and drop rattlesnakes down the ventilation pipes.

          5. redleg

            Double tapping the survivors of the boat bombing is the example of an illegal order in the UCMJ/Mast.

  36. Ann

    TRT World – US-Israeli strikes near Iran nuclear power plant ‘must stop’: IAEA

    https://www.trtworld.com/article/fc22d345327e

    Greek Patriot system downs drone in Saudi Arabia

    https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1300250/greek-patriot-system-downs-drone-in-saudi-arabia/

    IDF says failed assassination attempt on Hezbollah operative instead killed opposition official

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strike-kills-christian-party-official-lebanon-widening-divisions-over-2026-04-06/

    4 bodies found in wreckage of Haifa building hit by Iranian missile

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/2-dead-pulled-from-wreckage-of-haifa-building-hit-by-missile-2-more-people-still-missing/

    Doctors warn that Israel is targeting Lebanon’s health care system, as it did Gaza’s

    https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-gaza-palestinians-hospital-attacks-2324ed88a4d95513093d427167335c6e

    Iran struck US forces relocated on Kuwait’s Bubiyan island, military spokesperson says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-struck-us-forces-relocated-kuwaits-bubiyan-island-military-spokesperson-2026-04-06/

    French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves

    https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20260404-french-central-bank-nets-%E2%82%AC13bn-from-us-gold-sale-consolidates-reserves-in-paris

    Head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence organisation announced as dead, state media reports

    https://www.reuters.com/world/head-irans-revolutionary-guards-intelligence-organisation-announced-dead-state-2026-04-06/

    Secret Codes and Yuan Fees Get Ships Through Iran’s Hormuz Tollbooth

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/strait-of-hormuz-ships-paying-iran-yuan-and-crypto-tolls-for-safe-passage

    Japan arranging talks with Iranian leader as Middle East tension grows

    https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/73623

    1. TimH

      Per French gold article: “The Bundesbank, Germany’s federal bank, holds about 1,236 tonnes of gold in the US, or about 37 percent of its total.”

      So that’s 1236 x 32150 = about 40 million troy oz, worth about $185 billion, of leverage that the US has over Germany..

  37. Safety First

    1. Just imagine if the Russians had lost an Su-34 over Ukraine, then scratched two transports, 2-4-6 helos and an Su-25 (rough A-10 equivalent, though with important differences) getting the two pilots out. Even with no deaths, or, at least, no bodies left on the ground.

    The Daily Telegraph would have gone bananas hysterical screaming about Russian incompetence, totalitarian-authoritarian disregard for losses, Putin’s assured impending removal by a military coup and, separately, a popular uprising, and on and on. I can’t even fathom what new depths Hamish de Breton-Gordon would plumb, he is their most commitedly deranged commentator on the Ukraine war.

    Meanwhile, we get a Saving Private Ryan story. Which, if anyone remembers, sacrificed an entire squad of hard-bitten veterans to, erm…actually, if you think through the military side of what must have happened after the cameras stopped rolling, the whole thing must have been fairly pointless (because Ryan clearly must have been reached by larger US forces shortly afterwards or the bridge he was holding was not particularly important), but that’s a lengthy discussion for another time.

    2. I encourage everyone to read Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. The process, as I understand it, is this.

    a) The VP and a majority of “principal officers of executive departments” (15 currently) sends a letter to the Speaker and Senate Pro Tem that the President “is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”, the VP “immediately” becomes acting President.

    b) The President can send his own letter stating he is “able”, but the VP and cabinet members then have four days to send their own counter-counter-letter saying no, he isn’t. The language seems to imply that during this four-day period the VP is still running the show – “immediately resumes” is followed by “unless” – but there is room for debate there.

    c) Congress then has to get a 2/3 vote in both houses to keep the VP in and the President out, otherwise the President comes back in.

    d) Congress, if not in session, has 48 hours to assemble. After it assembles, there is a 21-day period in which to conduct the vote. The VP is in charge during this entire time.

    Unstated is what happens if the VP uses his newly found authority to lock the President in a hole with no means of communication – the President must send that counter-letter to initiate the 4 + 21 day countdown to the Congress vote. But let us suppose everything is done above board.

    Vance needs eight people from the Cabinet and ~1/3 of the Republicans and all the Democrats in both houses to do this. Basically. Plus not a small bit of intestinal fortitude, which his prior career did not exactly prepare him for (in the Marines, he was a military correspondent, not a frontline soldier). Dicey. Especially as from Schumer’s standpoint, having Trump in and winning the midterms is better than having Trump out…

    1. amfortas

      Dude!
      “Unstated is what happens if the VP uses his newly found authority to lock the President in a hole with no means of communication – the President must send that counter-letter to initiate the 4 + 21 day countdown to the Congress vote. But let us suppose everything is done above board. ”

      i almost choked on my beer, and the ducks flew off in a frenzy.
      sadly, in reality, i see very little coherence, nor fortitude…intestinal or otherwise…in the executive branch, at the moment.

      1. Bill Carson

        Presumably, the SCOTUS decision granting the President broad immunity would apply to the VP in this situation, so it is doubtful the VP could be prosecuted for keeping the President in a hole. Hence, the VP’s actions could be nothing other than above board. In fact, the VP/acting-President could order the assassination of the (now former) President and get away Scot-free. Hypothetically, of course.

  38. JohnH

    Though the fiasco outside of Isfahan has gotten all the attention, there appear to have been several incursions against Iran.

    Tasnim: “The IRGC also stated that the US terrorist military’s amphibious assault ship LHA-7, which has over 5,000 sailors and Marines on board and carries helicopters, was also hit by rapid Iranian missile launches, forcing it to retreat deep into the southern Indian Ocean after this wave of attacks.”
    https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/06/3558628/us-amphibious-assault-ship-forced-to-retreat-after-irgc-strikes

    MSN reports planes being shot down over Khuzestan and another near the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/iran-downs-two-us-warplanes-as-rescue-efforts-face-fire/gm-GM8984B661

    Of course, some of the pilots were rescued, but I would not put it past the Pentagon to conflate the incidents and focus on (or fabricate) one of the rescues to obfuscate the losses and dramatize the rescues. After all, it was the same SEAL Team 6 that performed the rescue (and grossly exaggerated it heroics in its “killing of Osama as well as its “spectacular” kidnapping of Maduro.) Fox News is already talking about a Hollywood rescue.

    1. diptherio

      The MSN report has been removed. It comes up in a DDG search too, but the link goes to a 404 page. Odd…or not.

  39. CitizenGuy

    There sure are a lot of comments about carbon fiber propellers and whether they break or bend. It reminds me of “but jet fuel isn’t hot enough to melt steel beams! ” in the wake of 9/11.

    That is to say, I’m tempted to dismiss the argument as conspiracy-addled. Isn’t it missing the forest for the trees?

    1. Samuel Conner

      I think there may some confusion about whether certain images are showing H-6 rotors or C-130 propellers. The arrangement of images at the top of Larry Johnson’s “What the Hell …” post appears to (plausibly, IMO) interpret the charred remains in the center of the montage as Little Bird rotors and bodies. Some of the shredded blades do look like they must be made of composites.

      I recall seeing an image (cannot now locate that) of a C-130 debris field from this site that IIRC showed intact four-bladed props with all tips bent, as if still spinning during a “landing” that resulted in propeller contact with the ground (this is also mentioned in a NC comment cited in the main post).

    2. David in Friday Harbor

      I agree that broken/burnt carbon propellors aren’t “dispositive” of anything but the presence of an MH-6 “Little Bird” is. You can clearly make out an MH-6 airframe and rotor assembly in some of the photos of debris, distinct from the MC-130 engine nacelles and propellors.

      It’s common knowledge that the “Little Bird” isn’t used for CSAR; its use appears to be exclusive to SOC missions. Aviation fan-sites report that the downed flyer was extracted by the usual CSAR HH-60W “Jolly Green II” helicopter — which was apparently hit by small arms fire that seriously wounded several on board. This all suggests that the downed F-15 was indeed flying support for a “boots on the ground” SOC mission to Isfahan that went pear-shaped.

      It also wouldn’t surprise me if the CIA’s “assets on the ground” turned out to be double-agents and that the IRGC was tipped-off. Why reveal your AA radars when you can simply shoot the enemy after he lands?

      This would explain all the firings last week — that Trump and Hegseth had insisted on a Hollywood-style mission to snatch enriched uranium over the objections of some in the military. This was how they were going to be able to declare “victory” and wind-up the war. Trump is now crazed by the humiliation.

      1. n

        Yep. Also there is no reason a full bird Colonel is riding in the backseat of an F15E unless he’s the mission commander and more is going on than just a regular bombing run over Iran.

        Also you dont need 100s of special ops soldiers to do a CSAR.

        In a few days/weeks I am sure a lot more info is going to leak out. Maybe some of the “journalists” who regularly ask Trump and his cronies questions might ask about this. Maybe..

      2. erstwhile

        Iran has now apparently spilled an entire golden bowl of mashed potatoes exactly upon the crown of the great and stable genius, which has caused the anointed one to fly into hysterics, and to insist that Iran be mightily punished, and if you notice, among the profane and spectacular invective spouting from the chosen one, and his upraised, flailing arms, and clenched fists, he is emitting something else, which, strangely enough, appears to be running down his heretofore creased and splendid trousers. Now, just what might that be?

  40. The Rev Kev

    From a tweet in a Larry Johnson post. We have all seen that young Iranian officer reading out pronouncements for his country – Armed Forces Spokesman Ibrahim Dhoul-Faqari. Here is his CV-

    ‘🔸 Bachelor’s in Mathematics
    🔸 Master’s in Mathematics
    🔸 PhD in Western Philosophy
    🔸 Fluent in four languages: Persian, English, Arabic, and Hebrew.
    Additionally, he possesses extensive field experience and real-world operational background.’

    https://xcancel.com/Iranevent_tv/status/2039372681859219717

    So what are White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s qualifications again?

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Wow. I don’t know if the details are true or not, but the people/clankers disagreeing in the comments sure are showcasing their own ignorance. The Persians definitely have the better trolls from what I have seen.

      1. Louis Fyne

        Revolutionary Shia takes scholarship very seriously—arguably moreseo than the culture of a random US state.

        and an unintended side effect of sanxtions is that it is much tougher to educates Iranians to emigrate, so much less “brain drain”. and given the ubiquity of IRGC in the military economy and civilian economy, it’s one of the few games in town for credentialed graduates

          2. JonnyJames

            I could imagine someone could bump these jams at high volume while driving down International Boulevard (aka East 14th) in East Oakland. The Persians got some street cred.

      3. jrkrideau

        Quite likely true. This level of education does not seem rare. Have a look at some of the education levels of Iranian politicians & cabinet ministers. Abbas Araghchi has degrees up to a PH.D from the University of Kent. The former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also holds a Ph.D, and so on.

        1. ambrit

          Unfortunately, the Emperor Trumps troops have adopted the Kzinti tactical combat protocol: “Scream and leap.” Much hilarity ensues.

    3. Carsten

      The jokes about Iranian leadership being 130 IQ polymaths with double degrees in nuclear engineering and Hegelian dialectics, and frontline combat experience in World War-esque conditions are closer to reality than our own feckless and intellectually mediocre leadership would care to admit.

      1. hereweare

        Far closer to reality.
        The enemy likes to portray Iran’s leadership as ignorant fanatical terrorists and religious nut jobs. Wonder where they get that idea?

      2. hk

        We used to have them in the West, too, once–after World War I. Not all of them turned out well (e.g. some guy with mustache), but the generation who spent time in the trenches between 1914 and 18 did produce a lot of remarkable talents.

        1. Carsten

          It was the last war that Major General Smedley Butler fought in. I wonder if that was the one that made him realize that “War Is a Racket”.

          1. Yalt

            It’s right there on page 1 of the book…

            In the World War [I] a mere handful garnered the profits of the conflict. At least 21,000 new millionaires and billionaires were made in the United States during the World War. That many admitted their huge blood gains in their income tax returns. How many other war millionaires falsified their tax returns no one knows.

            How many of these war millionaires shouldered a rifle? How many of them dug a trench? How many of them knew what it meant to go hungry in a rat-infested dug-out? How many of them spent sleepless, frightened nights, ducking shells and shrapnel and machine gun bullets? How many of them parried a bayonet thrust of an enemy? How many of them were wounded or killed in battle?

            …although I’m pretty sure his Nicaragua service had already twisted the knife.

      3. Frank

        I’d like to know more about how the Iranian society augments such achievements.
        Is all the education one wants free? Are they given some number of years of state support while schooling? Are they required to devote some years to civil service afterwards?
        Maybe we should try to learn how they do it.

  41. Jackman

    Ahh, as per Yve’s Axios note, the Merry Monday Morning Mediators are out in full force again to save the Markets, and so far, they’re succeeding once again!
    The most amazing thing about all this is that we live in an economic world built almost entirely around the foundational belief that markets are remarkably ‘intelligent’, and yet week after week, they can’t wait to be fooled yet again, even as Armeggedon looms ever closer. I guess it turns out that markets are only as ‘intelligent’ as those who believe in them–and that tells us all that we need to know.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Lying liars who lie, lie, lie.

      Al Franken was way ahead of his time. These cretins buying stocks are delusional.

    2. JohnH

      Great quote: Keynes—”“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

      1. Keith Newman

        @Es s Ce Tera at 12:36 pm
        This is my view as well. The price of any financial asset that “printed money” can buy can be manipulated. But you can’t “print” oil, gas, urea, etc., etc. At some point the price of non-“printable” assets will rise dramatically if this evil war continues much longer.
        Here’s hoping sanity somehow makes it into the fray.

    4. amfortas

      the collective intelligence/wisdom of markets…as well as the reality of money, instead of it being a mere token and proxy for power…are the main bones of contention between me and my cousin.
      he’s still in the denial/bargaining phase, regarding whether usa!!! will recover from all this.
      keeps referencing the individual amurkin’s resilience and get-to-it-ness.
      even while accepting the archdruid’s “collapse now! and avoid the rush!”.

      i, of course, expect a collapse into warlordism and chaos. (remember:Amfortas is the kinder, gentler warlord)

  42. Wukchumni

    The War Prayer, by Mark Twain

    It was a time of great and exalting excitement. The country was up in arms, the war was on, in every breast burned the holy fire of patriotism; the drums were beating, the bands playing, the toy pistols popping, the bunched firecrackers hissing and sputtering; on every hand and far down the receding and fading spreads of roofs and balconies a fluttering wilderness of flags flashed in the sun; daily the young volunteers marched down the wide avenue gay and fine in their new uniforms, the proud fathers and mothers and sisters and sweethearts cheering them with voices choked with happy emotion as they swung by; nightly the packed mass meetings listened, panting, to patriot oratory which stirred the deepest deeps of their hearts and which they interrupted at briefest intervals with cyclones of applause, the tears running down their cheeks the while; in the churches the pastors preached devotion to flag and country and invoked the God of Battles, beseeching His aid in our good cause in outpouring of fervid eloquence which moved every listener.

    https://americanliterature.com/author/mark-twain/short-story/the-war-prayer

    1. CitizenGuy

      Sadly, looking at Trump’s tweets, it seems he is saying the unspoken part of that prayer quite loudly.

  43. Ann

    UK confirms drone-killing DragonFire laser weapon for Royal Navy destroyers by 2027 —laser downs 400mph high‑speed drones, costs $13 per shot

    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/uk-confirms-dragonfire-laser-weapon-for-royal-navy-destroyers-by-2027

    You Can Smell It Now: The Trump Presidency Is in Total Free-Fall: A loyal army of followers, a huge disinformation network, and a party of soul-selling cowards can crowd out facts for a long time. But eventually, reality catches up.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/208633/trump-presidency-collapse-truth-social-iran

    White House posted and deleted video of Trump mocking SCOTUS justices, Macron and others

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/white-house-trump-justices-macron/

    Texas Republican Called Out For Sharing AI Rendering of Rescued Soldier

    https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/texas-republican-called-out-for-sharing-ai-rendering-of-rescued-soldier/

    Paramount Skydance Secures $24 Billion From Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi Funds for Warner Bros. Deal: Report

    https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/paramount-skydance-funding-saudi-arabia-qatar-abu-dhabi-funds-warner-bros-deal-1236709251/

    US War Machine Is Built on Decades of Lies. The Assault on Iran Is No Exception.

    https://truthout.org/articles/us-war-machine-is-built-on-decades-of-lies-the-assault-on-iran-is-no-exception/

    Israel hits key Iranian petrochemical plant in massive gas field as mediators float ceasefire proposal

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-hits-key-iranian-petrochemical-plant-in-massive-gas-field-as-mediators-float-ceasefire-proposal

  44. JonnyJames

    No matter how unhinged, how irrational, how insane the emperor’s statements, “Mr. Market”, always the “rational” actor, believes the BS. Oil down, S&P up a bit now. Silly monkeys

    Larry Johnson and Col. Wilkerson say that the DT2 regime is creating a Praetorian Guard, loyal only to the emperor. But even the Praetorian Guard did not put up with Nero, Caligula, or Commodus. This time, I’m not sure.

  45. PeacenikDad

    I just wanted to comment to thank Yves for the ongoing Iran war update posts. I plan to make an extra contribution to the site as soon as I can. Also appreciate all the commenters added content/context, etc.

  47. Tom Stone

    The US Joint Chiefs of Staff could have stopped this War before it began by resigning En Masse.
    They knew there was no declaration of War, that there was no “Authorization for the Use of Military Force” and that there had not even been any discussion with Congress.
    They also knew that a War with Iran had been repeatedly War gamed with consistent results, a disaster for the USA.
    And they obeyed Trump’s illegal orders anyway because they like being IMPORTANT PEOPLE and so do their wives.
    Perhaps especially their wives.
    Murder is the deliberate unlawful killing of one Human being by another, by that definition every victim of this War is a Murder victim.

    1. JonnyJames

      Yes, like previous undeclared wars, this one is unconstitutional on its face. But there are clearly no “checks and balances” and the pres has taken it further and even stating that the law does not matter, The Secretary of War Crime openly mocks the law, openly mocks the rules of engagement and military law. Congress has done nothing to check the power of the exec, because they are paid not to. The corruption is so deep we need an SCBA to navigate it.

      Even someone like me with little or no background in law, can figure this out. The US was instrumental in creating the UN Charter etc. Yet the current regime ignores it and treats it with contempt.

      A quick perusal of Art. 2 makes this clear. Even if the US Congress declared war officially, the war would be unlawful unless the pres. and the Senate withdrew from the UN Charter. At least that is my understanding based on Judge Napolitano.
      https://legal.un.org/repertory/art2.shtml

    2. EY Oakland

      Aw, that’s sweet, your thinking that the wives are the real bosses here. It’s so, so likely that it is they, really, who control their husbands.

        2. Tom Stone

          Promotion in the Military is up or out, Captain to Major or out, Major to Colonel or out, Colonel to Brigadier or out.
          The wives are at least as rank conscious as Men and if you get on the wrong side (Or your wife does) of Mrs General your career is over.
          All of the Colonel’s wives are competing with each other to please Mrs General, just as each Colonel is sucking up to Mr General.
          That’s how it works in the USA, like it or not.

  48. Silo Man

    Re Dash 8 aircraft allegedly used to air lift survivors – and rescued pilot – out of Iran:
    Is there any confirmation of this? Or is it just window dressing on the “official story”?

    Also, I have seen nothing re the Iranians actually being aware of this operation. Is it possible they set this as a trap from the get-go? The destruction of US equipment was pretty complete…Thoughts….

    1. Yalt

      An overconfident enemy convinced that your country is absolutely full of eager potential traitors…it does seem like an environment that might be friendly to the setting of traps.

  49. stickNmud

    I think Scott Ritter and the video with Larry Johnson about possible special ops mission stated the aircraft that rescued the folks from the dirt airstrip near Isfahan were C295, and this article from Spanish media confirms this:

    https://www.outono.net/elentir/2026/04/05/a-spanish-made-c295w-plane-on-the-rescue-mission-for-two-usaf-airmen-in-iran/

    And I’ve cut and pasted “Key takeaways…” in its entirety from the article from the Atlantic Council, “Tracking US military assets in the Iran war”, which I gave a link to yesterday, because there is so much important info:

    “Key takeaways as of April 3, 2026:

    Aircraft carriers: One of four available US aircraft carriers—the USS Abraham Lincoln—is deployed to support Operation Epic Fury. US officials announced this week that it will be joined by a second one. US officials also indicated that the United States could have three carriers deployed to the region for some time.

    The USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) has deployed and will reportedly join Operation Epic Fury. It is still in the Atlantic.

    The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), which was also deployed to support the war, is unavailable after an onboard fire. It is currently in Split, Croatia, for repairs. It will likely stay in the region after the repairs.

    The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) was set to be decommissioned in May 2026, decreasing total US inventory to ten. However, in March 2026, the US Navy decided to extend the Nimitz’s service life to March 2027, with unclear impacts on its readiness.

    The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) has finished maintenance, is training off the coast of San Diego, and is preparing for deployment to a location not yet publicly disclosed.

    Mine countermeasures: It is unclear if there are any ships with mine countermeasure capability involved in Operation Epic Fury.

    The US Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Manama, Bahrain, has three littoral combat ships (LCS) outfitted with mine countermeasures mission packages. In the week of March 15, the Navy confirmed that two are currently in Singapore for a “scheduled maintenance and logistics stop,” with the third reportedly in the Indian Ocean—presumably to avoid Iranian attacks.

    LCS are modular and can be outfitted with a variety of mission packages. Only four of the twenty-eight LCS have been equipped with the mine countermeasures mission package, according to the Navy.

    The Navy decommissioned four of its eight Avenger Mine Countermeasure ships assigned to the US Fifth Fleet, in September 2025. The four remaining Avengers are homeported in Sasebo, Japan.

    Landing Helicopter Assault (LHA)/Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD): One of the three ships available from the LHA/LHD classes—the USS Tripoli (LHA-7)—is committed to Operation Epic Fury as part of the deployment of an amphibious ready group and Marine expeditionary unit (ARG/MEU), with another, the USS Boxer (LHD-4), reportedly enroute to the Middle East.

    The USS Tripoli, homeported in Japan, has joined the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea in support of ongoing operations. The USS Tripoli arrived at Diego Garcia as of March 23.

    The USS Boxer (LHD-4) amphibious ready group reportedly deployed to the Middle East from San Diego.

    The only other known deployed LHD is the USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) in the Caribbean.

    A 2024 GAO report noted that LHDs suffer from a high rate of maintenance issues.

    Following the July 2020 fire and the eventual decommissioning of the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD-6), LHA and LHDs are not able to meet the Navy and Marine Corps’ goal of having 80 percent of the force ready to deploy.

    Amphibious transport dock (LPD)and dock landing ships (LSD): The USS New Orleans (LPD-19) arrived with the USS Tripoli ARG/MEU in the Arabian Sea. The USS San Diego, which was previously operating with the group, is in port in Sasebo, Japan.

    The lack of a second LPD/LSD reduces the group’s operational effectiveness.
    The USS Boxer ARG contains the USS Portland (LPD-27) and USS Comstock (LSD-45).
    The Government Accountability Office assessed in 2024 that nine out of ten LSDs were in “poor material condition.”

    Arleigh Burke-class destroyers: An estimated 26 percent of the entire available destroyer class is deployed in Operation Epic Fury.

    Arleigh Burke-class destroyers spend an average of nine years (27 percent of their thirty-five-year service life) in maintenance.

    B-1 bombers: 60 percent of the mission capable B-1 fleet is conducting strikes as part of Operation Epic Fury, with all operating from Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford in the United Kingdom.

    The US maneuvered three more B-1 bombers to RAF Fairford on March 26. This likely exceeds the record for a concentrated B-1 deployment in the post-Cold War era.

    B-2 bombers: B-2 deployments are highly classified. An estimated 26 percent of the entire available fleet could be deployed for Operation Epic Fury.

    B-2 bombers take an average of 119 maintenance hours per flight hour following a bombing mission. This indicates that at least the four B-2s used in the early phases of Operation Epic Fury might be currently unavailable, along with an unknown number of the seven B-2s that flew in the June 2025 strikes the United States and Israel conducted against Iran (Operation Midnight Hammer) and an unknown number currently under programmed depot maintenance.

    E-3 AWACS aircraft: An estimated 63 to 71 percent of the total available E-3 AWACS are deployed in Operation Epic Fury.

    An Iranian drone severely damaged an E-3 AWACS at Prince Sultan Airbase, Saudi Arabia, on March 27.
    In 2024, slightly more than half of the Air Force’s AWACS fleet was assessed to be “mission capable”—able to carry out at least one of the platform’s key missions, which includes air surveillance—and the aircraft is in the process of being retired.

    MQ-9 Reaper: The total number of MQ-9s used in Operation Epic Fury is not known.

    The United States rotates MQ-9s in “orbits,” in which several of the airwing are loitering over enemy airspace at a given time. MQ-9s are capable of sustained day-long loitering missions.

    Open-source reporting indicates that the United States has lost twelve MQ-9s since the start of Epic Fury, building on an estimated loss of ten percent of the fleet since 2023.

    MQ-9 losses in Epic Fury will cost the United States $192 to $678 million dollars.
    The US Air Force plans to reduce the MQ-9 inventory to 140, though the recent losses of MQ-9s will likely impact this decision.

    KC-135 Stratotankers and KC-46 Pegasus: An estimated 33 percent of mission capable KC-135’s and KC-46’s are involved in refueling missions in Operation Epic Fury. These planes are critical to support sustained air missions.

    Iran has damaged or destroyed approximately a dozen aerial refuelers, although exact numbers are not known.
    The US inventory of refuelers is large but finite. The US does not plan to purchase more KC-135’s, but does intend to purchase more KC-46’s.

    Patriot missile batteries: An estimated 7 to 11 percent of available Patriot batteries are in the Middle East.
    Open-source reporting indicates that there is at least one Patriot battery in Saudi Arabia and one Qatar, and four batteries were transferred to the region in spring 2025.

    THAAD systems: An estimated 29 to 43 percent of available US THAAD systems are committed to Operation Epic Fury.

    Out of an estimated five operational THAAD systems that are outside the continental United States, two to three of them are in the Middle East. One is in Jordan and one is in Israel. It’s unclear if the second THAAD battery deployed to Israel in spring 2025 remains in place. The other two are permanently deployed in Guam and South Korea, respectively.

    In March, the United States also reportedly moved up to 48 THAAD interceptors from the THAAD launchers in Korea to the Middle East.”.

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/trackers-and-data-visualizations/tracking-us-military-assets-in-the-iran-war/

    Sorry for the long post, but I suspect many folks might not click on the link to read it. Hat tip to MoA.

    1. AG

      Thanks!
      (Questions of length like with all writing mostly correspond with that of quality. Which is an interesting cognitive value of experience…)

    2. hereweare

      The Telegraph said “they had to bring in three AFSOC [Air Force Special Operations Command] Dash-8s to fly out the rescued WSO and the 100 or so personnel involved in the op,” a US military official told Michael Weiss, an American journalist and author.”

      Googling “Michael Weiss Dash-8s” gives me:
      X · michaeldweiss
      350+ likes · 16 hours ago
      It was then they sent 3 C-295s (not Dash-8s as originally given above). Michael Weiss’s Image on X · 10. 37. 352. 44923 · · Explore …Read more

      However, while the links therein take me to Michael Weiss on X, I see nothing about C-295s or Dash-8s. I do see “You’re unable to view this Post because this account owner limits who can view their Posts.” Perhaps someone signed up with X can track down the relevant post.

    3. hk

      Speaking of BHR, that incident was very suspicious in multiple ways, too–besides the fact that the fire itself was quite dodgy (when the ship was in dock for maintenance, iirc), that the damage was so extensive that the ship wound up being scrapped instead of being repaired was crazy, a sign that something was very rotten at the heart of USN.

    4. The Rev Kev

      ‘the US Navy decided to extend the Nimitz’s service life to March 2027’

      I think that it is law that the US Navy must have 11 carriers in service so the Navy is keeping the Nimitz on the rolls until it can be replaced.

      But I bet the toilets on the Nimitz work just fine.

  50. XXYY

    … it would have seemed prudent for Iran to move some or all of this cache to multiple places, since there was no longer any reason to keep it in one spot for the convenience of IAEA inspectors.

    I was going to make a comment on this. One thing is very clear at this point, the Iranian military is very skilled at anticipating the moves of its opponent and taking countermeasures ahead of time. (Not that this is super difficult if your opponent is the US, which seems to base most of its military operations on old movies.)

    IIRC Iran is estimated to have 900 kg of partially enriched uranium. Uranium is of course an extremely dense material, so 900 kg would probably fit in a phone booth or perhaps a wheelbarrow. Iran is more than twice the size of Texas, so it seems pretty high on the impossibility scale of finding such a small amount of stuff in a huge, unfamiliar area. Dividing it into 10 capsules and putting them in different places would pretty much guarantee that most of it will remain undetected.

    Strange that the US is assuming it’s all just sitting in one easy-to-get-at place, ready to be carted off.

    2. JP

      It was probably Trump’s off ramp. If any U235 was recovered he would claim the war goal accomplished claim victory and go home leaving everyone else to clean up the mess. He has, in his typical way, already telegraphed these intentions.

      1. JohnH

        “If any U235 was recovered he would claim the war goal accomplished claim victory and go home” until after the midterm elections…

        Of course, with the economy set to tank, he could ostensibly stage a few false flags, equip a few MAGA types with StarLinks and instructions on rioting and looting, and then declare martial law.

        Hopefully his lack of planning for Iran is indicative of how he would plan for martial law.

      2. Copeland

        Can someone please cook up an offramp for Trump, one that cannot be effed up, “pull it off”, report to T that it was “completely successful”, so T can get back to McDonald’s and golf? Someone just throw him a bone.

        1. amfortas

          everything ive ever seen regarding the whitehouse(we went everywhere else when my folks took us to dc when i was 10), theres at least an hundred folks with a sidearm, at least.
          surely one of them is a potential patriot.
          not like its never happened…given, in other places.
          apropos for a banana empire.

          (imagine this as purple for satire, since i dont know how to do that,lol)

    3. redleg

      You have to keep that stuff separated into smaller concentrations or it can achieve criticality and emit a burst of damaging radiation. It won’t blow up but you wouldn’t want to be anywhere nearby if that were to happen.

  51. Ann

    Russia Replaces Starlink With European-Built Satellites Originally Made by Airbus and Thales

    https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-replaces-starlink-with-european-built-satellites-originally-made-by-airbus-and-thales-17629

    Iran alleges US rescue ops likely cover to ‘steal enriched uranium’

    https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/iran-alleges-us-rescue-ops-likely-cover-to-steal-enriched-uranium/amp

    Top Doctor Sounds Alarm on Trump, 79, Over ‘Dementia Signs’

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-doctor-sounds-alarm-on-trump-79-over-dementia-signs/

    U.S. Marshals waived training rules for Musk’s armed DOGE security, emails say

    https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/elon-musk/elon-musk-trump-government-doge-security-rcna266088

    Victoria Base Attack: Baghdad Airport Facility Burning After Drone Strike

    https://dailyexpress.co.ke/victoria-base-attack-baghdad-airport-iraq-resistance/

  52. Ann

    Iran rejects ceasefire as deadline nears on Trump ‘hell’ ultimatum

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-vows-hell-iran-if-strait-stays-shut-says-deal-is-possible-2026-04-06/

    Iran’s embassy says it ‘does not forget friends’ as first Malaysia-bound tanker passes Hormuz

    https://www.asiaone.com/malaysia/iran-embassy-malaysia-tanker-ocean-thunder-strait-of-hormuz

    Iraq says it could restore oil exports to pre-war levels within a week if Hormuz reopens

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iraq-could-restore-oil-exports-pre-war-level-within-week-if-hormuz-reopens-basra-2026-04-06/

    Stephen Miller Scrambles to Keep His White Supremacist Dream Alive

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208616/stephen-miller-white-supremacist-dream-immigration

    ‘Worsening Gradually’: MS NOW Doc Spots ‘All The Signs Of Dementia’ In Trump

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/vin-gupta-donald-trump-dementia-signs_n_69d38b39e4b0d214cc71e7a2

    “It’s shocking how poorly prepared the administration is”: DOGE gutted major energy personnel who warn the U.S. has lost key insights amid Iran war

    https://fortune.com/2026/04/05/doge-fired-state-department-energy-resources-bureau-key-personnel-insights-iran-war/

    A shadow banking meltdown would spell disaster for Maga

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/06/a-shadow-banking-meltdown-would-spell-disaster-for-maga/

    Steve Bannon wins Supreme Court order likely to lead to dismissal of contempt of Congress conviction

    https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-capitol-riot-bannon-trump-4a4cf324096fc1bfed204d42b54d191e

    Iran Mocks Trump’s Made-Up Deadline After Vulgar War Crimes Threat

    http://newrepublic.com/post/208644/iran-mocks-deadline-vulgar-war-crimes-threat

    This Is Not Just a War on Iran. It Is a War on American Democracy.

    https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/iran-war-democracy-midterm-elections

    As if there *is* any democracy in America?

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Thank you for the editorial comment at the end. And for all the links you’ve been providing.

      Pretty tired myself of hearing for the last decade plus of what a threat Trump is to ‘our democracy’ when we haven’t had one for quite some time.

      1. Don

        Yes, from the outside looking in, Trump is not an aberration, except perhaps in that he pulled his pants down. The difference between Obama and Trump is a matter of style.

        1. Copeland

          Not in any way a fan of O, but he crafted a treaty with Iran, mostly honored it….T burned it on day 1.

          A bit more than style.

    2. Es s Ce Tera

      re: ‘Worsening Gradually’: MS NOW Doc Spots ‘All The Signs Of Dementia’ In Trump

      Can I just say I suspect wealth itself leads to a dementia-like state. Monty Python aren’t the first to have noticed the phenomenon of the “upper class twit”. Having entered “god mode” in the game of life, where one is no longer challenged by anything, everyone around you says yes to your every whim, you no longer need to think about anything, where everything is taken care of for you, and literally anything you want you simply get because cheatcodes, then I would expect anyone would enter a vegetative state – becoming an empty shell of a person. So I’m not sure it’s the same dementia we’re used to seeing in our loved ones.

  53. Lefty Godot

    The Empire is getting very predictable with its calls for ceasefire every time it is losing badly. And its definition of ceasefire means “you stop shooting but I can continue shooting at you whenever I want”–see Israel in Gaza, Ukraine’s “energy ceasefire” that wasn’t, Israel in Lebanon, etc. Iran should, like Russia, hold out for a UN-mediated settlement that addresses the root causes of the conflict, namely the Empire’s military bases used to intimidate other nations (these bases should be removed) and the Empire-installed right-wing racist regimes that murder and attack their neighbors (these should be de-Nazified and demilitarized, to use Putin’s phrase). Ceasefires are a sham.

    1. hereweare

      Or as someone here put it very succinctly a few days ago, “You cease. We fire.”

  54. AG

    Nat had already linked to Finkelstein´s first appearance since the war started, on March 30th:
    Finkelstein see here:
    https://www.normanfinkelstein.com/norman-finkelstein-trump-netanyahu-putin-and-the-war-in-iran/

    Nat´s piece (for those who missed it):
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/moral-imbeciles-trump-iran-newsom-jeffries-hasan-piker.html

    I wasn´t able to listen to Finkelstein to the very end until now. He touches on various issues, including SMO, Art. 51, Gaza of course, but most interesting to me, in the last part his weighed assessment of Trump re: Iran War.

    (Weighed in the sense that he doesn not use terms like “crazy” or “insane”. Which doesn´t mean he would not consider Trump that. I don´t know what he believes. But it´s meaningless to his argumentation where only verifiable actions and not psychology matter.)

    He argues – consistent with his usual position on this – that USA was not seriously tricked by Israel into this war.
    Interestingly he does not mention coersion via Epstein files as another “incentive”.

  56. jax

    Another day, another BIG thank you to Yves for her gargantuan effort in bringing us a rational outline of what’s happening in the middle east. Three cheers for the commentariat too.

    1. tennesseewaltzer

      I very much agree. There is no other online curation done with such wisdom and thoroughness. Thank you, Yves, and the astute commentariat, everyone.

  57. AG

    LARRY JOHNSON with GLENN DIESEN from 3 hours ago:

    Larry Johnson: Iran Destroys U.S. Aircraft – Trump Will Expand the War
    53 min.
    https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/larry-johnson-iran-destroys-us-aircraft

    NIMA-only with his overall verdict on the War right now from 16 hours ago:

    Trump Confirms Pilot Rescue as Military Planes Keep Getting DECIMATED
    57 min.
    https://rumble.com/v7844ue-nima-r.-alkhorshid-trump-confirms-pilot-rescue-as-military-planes-keep-gett.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v

    Apology I can´t provide summary yet…

    1. JohnH

      Clear evidence of nothing to see there, else why would they withhold the images?!?

      Reminiscent of Nixon’s missing 18 minutes of tape.

      Maybe China or Russia will conveniently fill in the blanks…

  59. Jason Boxman

    So this press conference is just a congratulatory circle. Interesting how completely different the official narrative is from the evidence on the ground of what might have happened instead/in addition.

    First time I watched Trump speak in years; At least in this few minutes, he doesn’t look sick or demented at all.

    2. ThirtyOne

      Between all the chest-thumping and back-slapping someone is likely to lose an internal organ.

    3. urdsama

      “he doesn’t look sick or demented at all”

      Didn’t need to – having this type of press conference said it for him. Especially since most of the world knows he is lying.

      It’s only going to get worse from here…

    5. Bazarov

      I’ve noticed that political debate has become increasingly medicalized, in the sense that actions by one’s political opponents are ascribed to some essential psychopathology, malaise, disease, or infirmity. I’ve seen it even go so far as to border on eugenics (usually when race baiting).

      So as soon as Trump started to disappoint his supporters on the right similarly to how Obama disappointed supporters on the putative “left,” his health was called into question, as if it caused a change in him. In this way, his former supporters can escape the humiliation of having been duped by a demagogue, of having to admit that the “Trump Derangement Syndrome” sorts they once ridiculed have been at least partially vindicated.

      The other tack is the “If only the tzar knew!” types who ascribe Trump’s behavior to the corrupt “boyars” giving him bad advice and leading his goodness astray. As if Trump isn’t the worst of them, the capo di tutti capi of corrupt boyars everywhere.

      But the disappointment is palpable. The Trump people, even among the more intellectual right, were really taken for a ride. I remember Alexander Mercouris harping on about how Trump really cared about all those soldiers dying in the Ukraine war and that he was unique among politicians in this respect! It’s remarkable, the willful blindness that led up to Trump II.

      1. Samuel Conner

        Re: Mercouris’ early enthusiasm for DJT, it was definitely a grating aspect of his commentaries at that time. It has been a relief that he has become disillusioned in this respect.

        I take it as a lesson in how easy it is to have blind spots, and a caution to be alert to this in my own thinking.

  60. lampoon

    From Robert Pape’s Escalation Trap post this morning. He believes the escalatory trajectory of the war is now structural. The US is using ever increasing force in a so far futile attempt to coerce Iran into negotiations, but all it is doing is triggering counter escalation that expands the conflict – an escalation trap that is moving faster and faster under worse conditions. Iran holds the strategic advantage of control over the Strait of Hormuz, which may be enough leverage for Iran to emerge as a fourth world power within the bargaining range of the U.S. He concludes that the U.S must either escalate further or accept a shift in the balance of power. He advises we “watch logistics — not rhetoric.”
    https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/before-the-debate-starts-the-six

    1. hemeantwell

      Watch logistics, but over what period of time? Not much of a guideline.

      Is Pape’s model adequate to the current situation, in which negotiations have been repeatedly and murderously sabotaged by the US and Israel? Doesn’t this warp the usual cost x benefits matrix that presupposes a conflict can be contained by a settlement? Iran has no choice but to push toward a new order instead of foolishly believing that the current disorder allows reliable settlements to be established. Given the coming severe disruption in the world economy, and the likelihood of multiple regime changes, my guess is that’s what they are looking at>

      1. hk

        This begs the question: what are “negotiations”? Demands for unconditional surrender or worse are “demands for negoatiations” in a way. In practice, these demands will never be met (no truly “unconditional surrender” demands were ever accepted–no one surrenders unless they have some kind of tacit assurance that the winning side will behave themselves.) If you are demanding “negotiations” (whatever that means) but have no credibility, no one will accept and, once that’s common knoweldge (and no one in Israel or Washington DC can possibly not realize this), the fight becomes the bitter struggle to the end, or in other words, the fight will have to continue until Israel is destroyed and US is reduced to a second rate power unable to project power across oceans, or Iran is destroyed with about 100-150 million to 3-5 billion dead (surely, you don’t think Iranians will be the only dead people when everything is over), with these outcomes not being mutually exclusive.

        The best possible outcome now, sadly, is that Israel and the Gulf Monarchies are destroyed, US is ejected from the West Eurasia (including Europe), and we somehow wise up and decide to retrench after cutting our losses. That will take several years, at least. Regime change in Washington will not suffice: did Kerensky pull out of the War after the initial Revolution? Did Lenin actually manage to “end” the war in the East (without Germans collapsing? Brest Litovsk turned out to be just the beginning of a lot more complicated series of conflicts…)

        1. amfortas

          good points, all. this wont really end until both israel and the usa empire can no longer physically pose a threat. period.
          utter humiliating defeat is the only thing that will unseat these lunatics.
          as an american patriot, this is my fervent hope.

  61. Wukchumni

    I’d oft wondered how we get to hyperinflation, for in the past you needed a prop of either coins or paper money to enable it to happen, and instances of it occurring in our newfangled digital era of money are few, but that was before the prop of Donald Trump, who vis a vis his actions is going to rankle the fiat world something awful, as everybody will soon be feeling the first brunt of lack of oil, nobody’s left out.

    I noticed in Covid-era inflation that there is a sort of ‘Kessler Syndrome’ where inflation bumps into everything else and things that aren’t really inflationary, play along.

    This will be Covid on steroids, as far as the financial effect.

    1. JohnH

      “things that aren’t really inflationary, play along.”

      Isabella Weber’s concept of “sellers’ inflation” suggests that inflation is primarily driven by firms with market power that can raise prices, especially during crises, rather than being solely a macroeconomic issue. This perspective challenges traditional views and emphasizes the role of corporate pricing strategies in contributing to inflation.” https://www.newyorker.com/news/persons-of-interest/what-if-were-thinking-about-inflation-all-wrong

      File under: never let a disaster go to waste

      1. Samuel Conner

        Thank you.

        There’s a Useful Idiots podcast (Katie Halper, Aaron Mate) from a few years back, discussing the pandemic, supply chain disruptions and price increases.

        Guest Richard Wolff made the assertion that “prices rise because corporations raise them”. It’s obvious. They raise them when they can, and the supply chain disruptions of that period provided opportunities.

        1. chuck roast

          Wolff is a colleague of Weber’s at U Mass Amherst. A nest of commie radicals that neoliberal pesticide seems to be unable to stamp out. Goes to show ya, great ideas are completely resistant to even the worst toxics.

        2. JohnH

          prices rise because corporations raise them”. It’s obvious, except to a LOT of economists. University of Chicago economics department did a survey of leading macroeconomists and 70% said that corporations were not driving inflation, ‘because they hadn’t done it before!!!” Very scientific analysis!!!

          I’ll let you figure out why so many economists, who feather their nests consulting to Corporate American, would be so oblivious…

          BTW I got banned from the blog of one of these economists, because his department’s website never mentioned inequality nor did his own course outline! He was insulted and said he was proud of his teaching about inequality!!!

    2. nyleta

      David Stockman had a piece yesterday about it. Entirely possible we have a large debt deflation in the middle of a huge stagflationary episode. Interest rates are the least of the Fed worries, the balance sheet will have to take the load. Don’t expect much fiscal help from this lot of politicians.

      Asset values are in fairy land and the banks here in Australia are so exposed to mortgages at huge repayment ratios they are all at risk.

      Barter is already setting in at the official levels as reality finally strikes and after Aramco is struck no denial will be possible. State movements of gold are becoming more prevalent as well. Iran seems to think that they can detach Saudi Arabia from the rest and have not hit them really hard yet but I cant see it, they are playing Iran false like the rest and Iran will run out of patience with them soon.

    3. amfortas

      Wuk…inflation is the appetizer.
      then hyperinflation…then deflation, because folks have no money.
      got dry beans?

    4. Ex-PFC Chuck

      If I recall Michael Hudson’s writings correctly a country’s currency can only go into hyperinflation if it has sovereign debt denominated in the currency of another country, or if the debt payments must be paid in specie (e.g. gold).

  63. raspberry jam

    In a change from my usual updates from people I know in Israel, this morning I caught up with a former colleague who does not live in Israel full time but is Orthodox and has a property in Jerusalem that he visits during holidays, and he is currently there for Passover. This guy is extremely unusual by Israeli Orthodox standards but kind of typical for a certain slice of NYC tech that overlaps with NYC capital. He runs in the same social circles as people like Michael Oren and Alan Dershowitz. I consider his political commentary to be representative of Trump’s “actual base” of wealthy Zionists.

    His residence in Jerusalem is very close to Netanyahu’s, close enough that his building was blocked when Netanyahu’s residence was being protested in 23/24. It’s an older building, though, so there is currently no built-in safe room for when the missile alerts come through. He says that multiple times a day and night he is receiving 5 minute warnings to get to the shelter across the street. He said that Tel Aviv is getting struck more frequently – it is quieter in Jerusalem. He says the missiles sent by the Iranians are much, much larger than what Hezbollah was fielding last summer and when they’re hit by the intercepts the sound/shock wave can be felt quite far.

    There were rumors the day before yesterday that the new air traffic control was targeted at Ben Gurion but it has not been confirmed in Israel. However flight restrictions have changed again in the past 24 hours so there may be something to it: my colleague said his flight back to NYC this week had been canceled by El Al and he had spent several hours trying to get it rescheduled for two weeks out. El Al is basically the last commercial airline that will fly in/out of Israel when there are security issues. I’m not sure if they’re saying it is because of limitations on number of people on flights out (or number of flights out) and my colleague got bumped or if there is a planned major escalation against Israel for the next couple of weeks or if the air traffic control capabilities are really offline. I think Ben Gurion has been trying to expand/upgrade the air traffic control for years so they may have only struck the new/expanded.

    Reinforcing what some have been saying here in other upper class Republican circles, he conceded that Trump is crazy but justified it in service of ‘dealing with the Iranians’ who are ‘religious extremists’ who ‘will kill people who disagree with their religious beliefs’ and while the disruption was stressful he felt it had already been worth it and would continue to be worth it. I don’t think he is a full-blown Kahanist – too declasse for him – we didn’t discuss the Israeli political situation but he said explicitly (and this echoes comments some of the sabra Israeli colleagues have made) that regardless of how this round “ends” Israel is in a more secure position now than it was two months ago.

    So from this I would expect the next couple of weeks to see an increase in tempo in kinetic actions towards Israel and an ongoing narrative-shaping effort that pins the worst disasters (like the ongoing failed operation) on Trump “being crazy”. Beyond that, and this is just a gut feeling, I expect Iran to continue fully prostrating the gulf states before turning their full focus (and fury) on Israel. Israel election is in October – polling showing Netanyahu or Bennett is favored depending on which groups are being polled. Bennett is staking a very strong “Netanyahu’s government cares more about the Haredi than the Troops, this is why we Lost” position. Protests have been declared illegal since the latest round with Iran; this broke down over the past two weeks and protests against the war have been happening in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The protests are deemed illegal due to the same public gathering laws prohibiting the haredi and kahanists from praying en masse at the Western Wall and other provocations (like bringing animal sacrifices into al-Aqsa). So there is a distinct “the rabbis are saying you have to die when they won’t fight” faultline being triggered in this election. If Iran is serious about regime change they will keep sieging Israel until the election to drive the Kahanists out of power – it’s not clear Netanyahu could form another government without them even if he wins the election. Bennett seems to care more about “Fortress Israel” than further attacks on Iran.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Thanks RJ.

      To your final point about ‘Fortress Israel’, Bennett should be careful what he asks for. Maybe ancient Sparta would be an analogue to modern Israel in some respects. Sparta was an extremely militaristic society and like many Zionists, the Spartans also felt they were superior to the others living alongside them, the Helots. Not long after they defeated Athens, they were in turn defeated by Thebes and ceased to be an historically relevant power. One argument I’ve seen regarding their demise is that the essentially bred themselves out of existence due to their superiority complex and unwillingness to mix with others.

      1. Clueless Joe

        Thing is, Spartans tended to have few kids to ensure concentration of wealth instead of dividing land between several sons who’d each inherit only a part of their father’s properties. So the total number of Spartan citizens and soldiers basically went down with each new generation, and wars like 2nd Persian War and Peloponnesus War depleted even more Spartans’ ranks. Which allowed Thebes to eventually beat them, and after that their ranks were so reduced that Macedonia didn’t even bother with them because they wouldn’t be able to be expansionist anymore and could be left to slowly die off – better save those Macedonian and Greek soldiers and mercenaries to fight Persia.

        As for what Raspberry Jam said, I’ll add that my own old friend there on the ground told me they were more or less down to 1 El Al flight a day, and at the moment, they were pretty much all booked by wealthy Orthodox coming in and out for Passover, and normal Israelis were basically screwed. They’d pretty much have to go to Amman to get a plane.

    2. Pearl Rangefinder

      Thank you very much for this report, raspberry jam!

      The “it’s worth it” attitude is sadly what I most expected, and I assume it is also shared with the architects of this disaster, the PNAC type folks who have been planning and salivating for just this war for over 30 years now. They have finally managed to get Uncle Sucker into this, and there won’t be turning back until they squeeze every bomb and airstrike from Uncle Sucker that they can, as this is really the last generational chance that America has to fight this kind of war against Iran. Trump is truly a neocon gift; not only have they managed to convince him to go into this, they also have him as the most convenient scapegoat ever that they can pin the mess onto and deflect from their own roles in all this. From the Israeli point of view, it doesn’t really matter even if America can ‘win’ as long as they can do so much damage to Iran that their biggest regional rival is crippled for decades and Israel is left standing to lord over what’s left. That I guess was the overall plan at any rate, but as Mike Tyson’s maxim goes, everyone’s got a plan until they get punched in the face…

      Sadly, I think that even if Iran increases the destruction in the coming weeks, the sunk-cost fallacy will kick in and everyone will keep doubling down. In short, we are so, sooo screwed.

    3. Carolinian

      Thank you.

      And of course it isn’t worth it no matter what your former colleague says because Iran was never threatening Israel and, as has been pointed out, was almost an ally of Israel back in the 1980s. Netanyahu et al simply needed an enemy to fuel their rise to power just as some long ago Germans used Jews for the same purpose. Call it one of history’s more ironic rhymes.

    4. DGE

      Thanks, I’d been craving updates on the situation in Israel.

      This is really worrisome. If your acquaintance is an example of the prevalent mood in Israel, then they really think they’re winning. And more meaningfully, they’re winning decisively, as in even if they end up bruised, they’ll consider themselves peerless in the Middle East, and able to impose their will on the region. It’s really dangerous.

      I still don’t have a clear picture of what Iran’s strategy regarding Israel is. My best guess is that their bet is on forcefully severing Israel’s ties to the West, and especially to the US. That’s a very tall order, but it’s not a bad plan by any means. If they can do that, then any Israeli victory will be Pyrrhic, I can’t see the country remaining viable in the medium term without the US supporting it, as typical of client states. If the GCC infrastructure is razed to the ground, that might just do the trick, perhaps even by plunging the US into political and economic chaos (upheavals in Empires always start after failed military adventures) to the point they’re not in a position to support Israel. That would cut them down to size and they’d have to choose between demise and accommodating the interests of their neighbours and those whose lands they’ve usurped.

      But if Israel manages to pull through with undiminished support, then I don’t think even Bennett will stop at “Fortress Israel”, the latter being bad enough nonetheless. If Iran is significantly degraded, Israel will be quickly rearmed by NATO and proceed to adopt with the Iranians what they’ve always done to the Arabs: mowing the lawn, as they say.

      That’s why I can only hope that severing the special relationship is just part of the Iranian strategy regarding Israel. They have to be degraded too, to a point that their lawn can also be mowed periodically should they start being a threat again, and that they face similar challenges rebuilding and rearming as the countries they’re so used to bullying around with impunity.

      Perceptions are important, and if the Israelis perceive themselves as having the advantage, that’s a recipe for further aggression by them. As we’re seeing in real time. I hope the Iranians are factoring all this into their calculations.

    6. AG

      Are you not afraid it might cause problems for you to write about this acquaintance?
      As much as your insight is of course appreciated…

  64. lampoon

    A fascinating three part interview of Alastair Crooke by Marco Fernandes of Forum Geopolitica on Iran and the war. Part 2 especially dovetails with Pape’s view of the geopolitical stakes.
    https://forumgeopolitica.com/article/this-is-an-asymmetric-war-iran-has-prepared-for-decades-interview-with-alastair-crooke-part-i
    https://forumgeopolitica.com/article/irans-plan-is-to-shift-the-paradigm-in-west-asia-and-restore-its-status-as-a-major-power-interview-with-alastair-crooke-part-ii
    https://forumgeopolitica.com/article/the-west-has-completely-lost-its-soul-but-the-iranians-are-searching-for-theirs-interview-with-alastair-crooke-part-iii

  65. John k

    Still surprised Iran hasn’t done anything about the oil pipeelines to Red Sea.. or the one that goes thru turkey to israel.

    1. Samuel Conner

      My impression is that the Iranians are basically saying to the “coalition”: “you decide how much damage you want us to inflict on you. Here is what we will do to you in response to various kinds of attacks on us.” No surprises, just keeping promises of proportionate retaliation, for the purpose of eventually establishing deterrence.

      If they are going to destroy the pipeline to the Red Sea, I expect they will announce that as one of the retaliatory measures, and let “the coalition” pull the trigger if it dares to.

    1. .Tom

      Prof Marandi joins at about 18min into the live stream. He’s in strong form and his assessment is rather like Yves’ “Adopt the brace position.” His opening remark responding to Trump’s recent statements:

      I think we’re going to see the complete destruction of all oil and gas installations, electricity and water desalination plants in the Persian Gulf region and that will be the end of oil and gas from this region permanently. Basically that’s what Trump is pushing for and I think we’re on the verge of a global economic depression that will be far more devastating than 1929. The Iranians are not going to back down under any circumstances…

      https://www.youtube.com/live/AkgRwbrzNls?t=1096

  67. Ann

    Iran accuses UN nuclear watchdog of inaction, warns of risk from attacks

    https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-accuses-un-nuclear-watchdog-inaction-warns-risk-attacks-2026-04-06/

    The South American petro-state profiting from the Iran war

    https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/04/05/the-south-american-petro-state-profiting-from-the-iran-war

    Guyana

    Trump says Iran could be ‘taken out’ on Tuesday, Hegseth says major strikes to come

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-iran-could-be-taken-out-tuesday-night-2026-04-06/

    Trump, 79, Launches Rambling Attack on Biden to Confused Kids

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-launches-rambling-attack-on-biden-to-confused-kids/

    ‘You fat f—k’: Top Dem rages at Trump, mocks sagging poll numbers. ‘They hate you’

    https://www.silive.com/politics/2026/04/you-fat-fk-top-dem-rages-at-trump-mocks-sagging-poll-numbers-they-hate-you.html

    James Carville

    Explosive gas price forecast: GOP facing ‘extinction-level event’ of $6-per-gallon

    https://www.rawstory.com/midterms-2676667444/

    Trump threatens to jail journalists who reported on pilot rescue

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-06/trump-threatens-to-jail-journalists-who-wrote-on-rescue-mission

    Trump’s budget seeks to privatize TSA at more U.S. airports

    https://www.abc12.com/news/politics/trump-s-budget-seeks-to-privatize-tsa-at-more-u-s-airports/article_81252fd9-a293-54fe-a969-e764d2fc9d19.html

    Iran sends “maximalist” peace plan response as Trump deadline looms

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-trump-peace-plan-ceasefire

    Trump claimed victory in Iran. Leaks hint at months of retaliation

    https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-retaliation-trump-us-war-rxdtbsptn

  69. ACF

    Seeking help with the fog of war:

    Does anyone know what percentage of refining capacity globally has been blown up?
    Any other meaningful insights into structural damage to the global economy?
    Is there a trustworthy website tracking this stuff?

    I ask because the House of Said bit from a couple weeks ago on the importance of refineries really stuck with me, and more stuff keeps getting blown up since. I recognize that even non-blown up stuff will take meaningful time to get fully back on line if/when the bombing ends, but the blown up stuff is in the years-to-rebuild category.

    So what I’m hoping to understand is, how much critical economic infrastructure has been blown up to date? I can’t effectively process each new claim of ‘Israel blew up xyz petrochemical plant, Iran blew abc plant…’

    Thanks in advance.

    1. amfortas

      i dont think that we’re ever going back to pre-stupid bullshit ante.
      a real new world order…but it will take decades to shake out…and the usa, given our delusional priors, down to people i run into in the feedstore…well, nukes as a last resort are not out of the equation. sorry.
      stupid will go on, until it simply cannot, and we are left with usa as a pariah state,fragmenting chaotically, blockaded by everyone…who look on in horror at us turning inward upon ourselves what we no longer have the means to visit upon far away brown people sitting upon our oil.

    1. Socal Rhino

      I do not think Iran will negotiate with the US. Period. If Vance has been named as a potentially more trustworthy negotiator my guess is that came from Oman or Pakistan, trying to play mediator.

    2. Sibiriak

      Ritter provides the most convincing detailed explanation of the rescue op / Isfahan uranium op I’ve seen so far. Thanks.

    3. Sibiriak

      “Ritter saying the Iranians will negotiate with JD Vance (39:10), i.e., they trust him. Really? Also, if there’s a signed treaty, why would that restrain Trump? ”
      ———————————

      Ritter’s arguments seem reasonable, if not convincing, specifically his claim that Former Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif’s “roadmap” published by Foreign Affairs magazine on Friday, in fact, represents the Iranian government’s bottom-line demands.

      And no, a treaty alone would not restrain the U.S. Restraint, Ritter argues, would come from 1) Iran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz and 2) Iran’s unrestricted missile program ( along with increased Russian and Chinese involvement).

  71. Grumpy old Controller

    Yves,

    Thank you for the incredible job you are doing bring us information unfiltered by the MSM.

    One question that puzzles me is this: Couldn’t Iran, either on its own or with Russia and China as partners hack the U.S. Government or Mossad to obtain the Epstein files and pretty much destroy the U.S. Government? When I hear Professor Morandi and others speak about the Epstein class and the grip Israel has on the U.S (presumably through that op), wouldn’t exposing that topple DJT and the rest of the leaders beholden to Isreal? Maybe it’s magical thinking on my part. I would love to hear others’ views on this.

    OK, up to the ‘donate’ button for me.

  72. jefemt

    Saaay, It just occurred to me tomorrow might be TOFU – TACO Tuesday?

    Or might he drop a nukie dookie??

  73. SDB1

    Re: F-15 pilot rescue mission as cover story for covert US special forces smash-and-grab raid on enriched uranium supposedly stored at Isfahan. I’m all for a good conspiracy theory, but smash-and-grab raid for radioactive material sounds like it belongs in an Alistair MacLean novel.

    Isn’t it more likely the smash-and-grab raid was a cover story (talked up by Trump) for the pilot rescue mission? I can only imagine last thing Trump wants in his reality-TV war is an episode featuring US Colonel humiliated live on Iranian TV. Too close to traumatic memories of 1979 Iran hostage crisis. Just a thought…

    1. hk

      Could be. However, the amount of resources allocated (including the colonel in the back seat of the F-15 in the first place) seems rather large for a garden variety bombing mission. The argument that the rescue attempt began as something else start with why that colonel was there in the first place after all–too high rank an officer to be on a routine mission. Once he gets shot down, a whole chain of events starts, likely because he knows too much.

      1. Bill Carson

        During his press conference today, Trump said HUNDREDS were involved in the “rescue operation.” If you need hundreds to rescue one person—I don’t care their rank—then what you’ve got isn’t a rescue mission, it’s a battle. Still, lots of things aren’t adding up, including how the USAF was able to land two C-130s near an Iranian city of over two million, and then how they could ever successfully land THREE Dash-8s, load them, them with “hundreds” of personnel, then take off on this dirt agricultural landing strip, and fly back out of Iran to safety. Seems nigh impossible.

  74. JohnH

    Could Iran pull off a Lucy strategy against Charlie Brown for baiting/frustrating Uncle Sucker?

    For the younger generation, Lucy held the football on the ground for Charlie Brown. Each time Charlie tried to kick, Lucy yanked it away, causing Charlie to fall flat on his back.

    IOW does the US really have any clue as to which of the many tunnels the uranium is hidden in? A uranium canister hunt for Easter!

  75. Ann

    Trump sent guns to Iranian protesters through Kurdish militias

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/05/trump-sent-guns-iranian-protesters-through-kurdish-militias/

    Trump Threats Cause Dilemma For US Officers – Disobey Orders or Commit War Crimes: ‘Legal experts say attacking Iran’s infrastructure would constitute a war crime – but would military officers be held responsible?’

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/apr/06/trump-threats-dilemma-for-officers-disobey-orders-or-commit-war-crimes

    Because Jesus

    The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Power

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html

    Donald Trump leads chants of “4 more years” at White House Easter Egg Roll

    https://www.newsweek.com/white-house-easter-egg-roll-donald-trump-four-more-years-11788205

    China Built the World’s Drone Industry. Now It’s Locking Down the Skies.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/05/world/asia/china-drone-regulations.html

    House Republican predicts Trump will deploy troops in Iran: ‘I just don’t see any other way’

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5818040-trump-iran-troops-deployment/amp/

    Trump sons to Gulf states: we’ve got some drone interception tech to sell you

    https://fortune.com/2026/04/04/trump-sons-to-gulf-states-weve-got-some-drone-interception-tech-to-sell-you/

  76. Jason Boxman

    The US and Israel are carrying out intense bombing raids on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex, which accounts for 85% of the country’s production in this sector.
    The damage is massive, yet the complex covers 54,000 hectares and would require many days of sustained heavy bombing to achieve its total destruction.

    Even so, the losses are certainly in the range of tens of billions of dollars in destroyed infrastructure and lost profits.

    With video

    https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2041232327460741556?s=46

    1. urdsama

      Well, here comes a global depression. Iran will strike back against Israel and and the nearby gulf nations.

      We are in the stupidest timeline…

    2. Samuel Conner

      Al Jazeera English commentary is claiming that the attack struck two facilities that generate power for the complex, but that the most important generation facility had not been attacked (at least at the time of the report).

      I have little hope that good sense will prevail, but this may have been “only” an incremental escalation.

  77. Ann

    Appeals court reinstates $656M judgment against the PLO and Palestinian Authority

    https://apnews.com/article/plo-lawsuit-antiterrorism-act-courts-7da5e766d7dd4333d67dc3f6ea8ac3db

    Trump brushes off questions about potential war crimes in Iran

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5818411-trump-iran-strikes-war-crimes/

    Trump Dramatically Escalates Iran Threat as He Says God Backs Him

    https://newrepublic.com/post/208672/trump-threat-war-crimes-bridge-power-plant-iran

    Trump Realized He Can Just Do Things. Who Can Stop Him?

    https://reason.com/2026/04/04/who-can-stop-the-president/

    As 4 astronauts aim to make history at the moon, Trump recommends slashing NASA’s budget
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/05/science/nasa-budget-trump-proposed-cuts

    The Real Intelligence Failure in Iran

    “The spies called it right, but the president went another direction.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/iran-war-intelligence-failure-trump/686694/

    Trump says Tuesday deadline to make a deal with Iran is final

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-tuesday-deadline-make-deal-with-iran-is-final-2026-04-06/

  79. Ben Panga

    The marked uptick in attacks on petrochemicals (first Israel, then Iranian response) continues.

    Via a [browser translated] @ripplebrain retweet:

    02:15 / April 8 Iran and the resistance launched heavy missile and drone attacks against the Jubail region of Saudi Arabia. This region in northeastern Saudi Arabia is one of the largest industrial cities in the world and plays an important role in the Saudi economy. The SABIC company, one of the world’s largest petrochemical facilities, is located in this region. Iran considers Saudi Arabia, along with the Israeli regime, to be the main instigator of the ongoing crimes against its infrastructure. This is a completely ‘disproportionate’ response, and the damage it will cause to Saudi Arabia and bin Salman’s financial partners in the Trump family is beyond calculation.

    —-

    Per AJ [note usually Saudis “debris” = direct hits, as with UAE]

    Saudi Arabia says assessing damage from missile debris
    The kingdom’s Ministry of Defence says it has shot down seven ballistic missiles launched towards its eastern region, with debris falling in the vicinity of energy facilities.

    Damage assessment is ongoing, the ministry added.

    —-

    I guess in 24 hours we will see if Trump follows through fully and this war [and the global economy] gets completely fubar. I don’t doubt we would see the Iranians strike many many energy targets in the Gulf and Israel. I wonder about the [gulf and especially Israeli] desalination plant options, which I believe is the last rung before nukes.

    Peace and love y’all 🙏🏼

    3. nyleta

      Singapore Gas Oil from Platts jumped 14 per cent at the open, now $ 230……….probably the real world price for prompt diesel.

    6. hk

      Something tells me that it’s a matter of time that the young Khamenei rescinds his father’s fatwa and Iran tests a nuclear bomb (and simultaneously announce a nuclear armed version of Khorramshahr missile.) It’s only a matter of weeks before 60% enriched U can be converted to weapons grade? It has been a few weeks.

  80. Ann

    Trump says he’s ‘not at all’ concerned about war crimes as he threatens Iran’s infrastructure

    https://apnews.com/video/trump-says-hes-not-at-all-concerned-about-war-crimes-as-he-threatens-irans-infrastructure-ff8535364c7b4746bf24e34832d32ed8

    ‘I will take up arms’: US-Israeli war in Iran prompts surge of nationalism among Iranians

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/i-will-take-up-arms-us-israeli-war-in-iran-prompts-a-surge-of-nationalism-among-iranians

    Trump says US could charge for Strait of Hormuz passage amid Iran war

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/trump-says-us-could-charge-for-strait-of-hormuz-passage-amid-iran-war

    Trump’s respect for King Charles possibly quashed desire to annex Canada, says royal commentator

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-king-charles-annex-canada-new-book-9.7153681

    The Next Target for the U.S. and Israel Is Iran’s Economy

    https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-next-target-for-the-u-s-and-israel-is-irans-economy-0f5f0d80

    Bomb Iran but Blow Up NATO? | It would be the height of folly and help Moscow, Tehran and Beijing.

    https://www.wsj.com/opinion/nato-western-alliance-europe-u-s-donald-trump-011c97b0

    Millions of Americans Paid Billions in Tariffs Later Ruled Illegal — And They Won’t See a Dime Back

    https://fortune.com/2026/04/06/tariff-rebates-low-income-families-small-businesses-ieepa/

    House Democrat moves to impeach Hegseth over Iran war

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/pete-hegseth-impeach-democrats-iran-war-trump

    Trump says he won’t invade Canada after all

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2026/04/06/donald-trump-says-he-wont-invade-canada-after-all/

  81. playa gold

    Most of you should just STFU. And spend some time researching the concept of Stoicism. Christ what a bunch of bed ridden geriatrics. What a waste of time and energy. Does anyone care about the posts that are written here (even mine). As if Putin, and Xi, or anyone in a position to effect geopolitics ( armed with facts no one here could ever find) would ever come to a chat room to find your self proclaimed “insights” and “wisdom”.

    Perhaps spend some time working with family, your neighborhood, and local community to make your immediate surroundings a better place. True change starts from within, then slowly spreads at the grass root becoming a force that even oligarchs and governments cannot stop.

    This is my last post. What a waste energy> I feel sorry for you all.

    3. Spastica Rex

      “I feel sorry for you all.”

      Thanks!

      I’m so sorry to see you go, too! I’m grateful for all that you’ve done for me. Take care, and peace be with you.

  82. Ben Panga

    Pentagon’s new plans in Iran give Trump a way out of war crime accusations (POLITICO)

    The Pentagon is expanding a list of Iranian energy sites it can target for attacks to include ones that provide fuel and power to both civilians and the military, a likely workaround if the administration is accused of war crimes for striking basic infrastructure.

    War planners are revising the list, according to two defense officials, as American and Israeli warplanes search for new targets after five weeks of around-the-clock strikes on military sites and U.S. ground troops surge into the region. The dual-use nature of the targets would make them legitimate, the officials said….

    Trump on Monday threatened a situation “where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12:00 tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again.”

    But Pentagon officials have debated whether that justification is valid, according to a third official who, like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The tension revolves around where to draw the line between military and civilian targets, such as water desalination plants, which could be considered targets because military forces also need water to drink….

    “Before targets get approved, they have to go under operational legal review,” said Sean Timmons, a former Army Judge Advocate General. “Some civilian infrastructure, if dually used by the military, can under the laws of war be a legitimate target. The concern that people have, that this will get excessive, is legitimate … but there are checks and balances.”

    But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last year gutted the Pentagon offices that assist with military targeting and preventing civilian harm, which may mean less oversight of such issues.

    Hegseth instead chose to reduce the number of employees working on the issue from 200 to less than 40. The laid-off staff assisted military commanders in choosing targets that would spare civilian lives, and investigated strikes after they occurred to better spare civilians in the future….

    ——-

    BP: I’m increasingly sure Trump is gonna go through with this tomorrow.

Comments are closed.