Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit
A conservative analysis, incorporating the impact on value chains, estimates the UK will face a 4.7% GDP fall in a hard Brexit scenario.
Read more...Category Archives: Doomsday scenarios
Gaius Publius: The Building Is Burning and All the World’s Babies Are In It — Using Force to Fight Climate Change
It’s going to take force to fight climate change and there’s little time to waste. Asking and negotiating won’t do the job.
Read more...Don Quijones: Could Italy’s Banking Crisis Drag Down Mario Draghi?
Mario Draghi was governor of Italy’s central bank from 2005 to 2011, overseeing the now very sick banking system. Will his past haunt him?
Read more...How Despair Helped Drive Trump to Victory
Trump did well in places that have borne the brunt of declines in manufacturing, mining, and related industries since the 1970s.
Read more...Yet Another Brexit Train Wreck – UK to Fall Outside EU Auto Approvals Regime – and It Doesn’t Even Register With Officials
Parliamentary testimony on the auto industry lifts another Brexit rock, revealing new creepy crawlies.
Read more...Scientists: Population Growth “Primary Driver Behind Ecological and Societal Threats”
A bit late in the game, experts are finally depicting population growth as the driver of threats like climate change.
Read more...Artificial Intelligence and the Stability of Markets
AI may revolutionise risk management and financial supervision, but also threatens to destabilise markets and increase systemic risk.
Read more...Hard Brexiters Continue Humiliating Theresa May
How long will Theresa May serve as a hard Brexiter punching bag?
Read more...More Signs Brexit Negotiations Coming Apart
More less than encouraging news on the Brexit front.
Read more...New Potential Credit Risk Bombs: Exotic, ‘Nonlinear’ and Private Transactions
Beware of old CDO risk re-imaged as “nonlinear finance”.
Read more...War Making in the Age of the Imperial Presidency: War Without War Powers (the Not-So-New American Way)
WWII is the last time Congress declared war; brief history of how it has ceded responsibility for committing to war making to the President.
Read more...Catalonia and Spain Enter Dangerous Uncharted Territory
Some initial reactions to Catalonia’s declaration of independence and Madrid’s initiation of direct rule.
Read more...How Many Hurricanes Must It Take?
Some relatively low-cost measures can reduce the toll of hurricanes….but do they go far enough?
Read more...UK Leaders Starting to Crack as Brexit Realities Finally Sink In
Brexit bravaura is scarce in evidence in Whitehall.
Read more...Ilargi: Is Capitalism Dead or Merely Dying?
None other than New Zealand’s prime minister has issued a blistering critique of capitalism. Can it be saved from itself?
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