Do Davos Billionaires and Bankers Really Believe Booms and Busts Are Over Because They’ve Trained the Fed?
Fed tightening is no longer needed to create recessions, given fragile credit structures and a growing pandemic out of China.
Read more...Category Archives: Investment outlook
Student Loans, Meet Greece: Extend and Pretend Bond Maturities
Shed a crocodile tear for investors in student loans: they are sometimes discomfited by short-lived downgrades when loan maturities are pushed out.
Read more...Manufacturing Employment, New Orders & Production Fall Fastest Since Apr-Aug 2009
Yves here. As readers know well, on the one hand, services and not manufacturing dominate the US economy. But manufacturing jobs, even now, are relatively well paid and manufacturing growth is often seen as having spillover effects. By Wolf Richter, editor at Wolf Street. Originally published at Wolf Street US manufacturing took a turn from […]
Read more...Credit Cycles and Asset Returns
Yves here. I’m clearly not in touch. I am surprised that this finding, that credit booms predict equity busts, is novel. Of course, given that manias last way longer than cooler heads deem possible, judging the peak of a credit cycle is tricky business. Nevertheless, when a wee summer associate at bond trading powerhouse Salomon […]
Read more...US Freight Shipments Fall Below 2014 Level. Answers Emerge
Freight volumes have traditionally served as a measure of economic activity. What do they say now?
Read more...Sweden Retreats from Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Sweden throws in the towel on its negative interest rate policy as inflation stays stubbornly low.
Read more...Private Equity’s Uninvested “Dry Powder” and Falling Returns Reflect a Bigger Problem: The End of a Long Term Disinflationary Tail Wind
The press is finally becoming skeptical of private equity’s claims that it generates superior returns, demonstrated by a Monday Wall Street Journal story, Private-Equity Cash Piles Up as Takeover Targets Get Pricier1 and a Bloomberg article yesterday, ‘Peak’ Private-Equity Fears Are Spreading Across Pension World. This follows a Mark Hulbert piece in MarketWatch, whose title […]
Read more...‘Maybe Rich People Can See the Writing on the Wall’: CEOs Stepping Down at Levels Not Seen Since 2008
CEOs are cashing out….an early warning?
Read more...Uber Loses Another $1.2 Billion, Stock Dives Again
Uber manages to bleed even more cash.
Read more...Why Did Isaac Newton Lose His Shirt in Financial Speculation? Author Alex Pollock Explains.
Trying to predict the financial future is a fool’s errand, even for a genius.
Read more...Herd Behaviour in Asset Markets: The Role of Monetary Policy
Data supports the idea that lax monetary policy contributes to bubbles. Yes, Virginia, some regard that claim as controversial.
Read more...Long Term Real Interest Rates Fell Below Zero in all Euro Area Countries
Is praise of negative real interest rates in Europe making a virtue out of (mis)perceived necessity?
Read more...The Fed Thinks the US Economy Is Fine. Do You?
Seeking reader input on the health of their economy.
Read more...Amid Recession Warnings, Trump Reportedly Considering More Tax Cuts for Rich and Corporations
Trump proposes yet more tax breaks, which would do more for the stock market than for the real economy.
Read more...What Plunging Global Semiconductor Sales Says About Autos, IT & How the Economy Reacts to Uncertainties
Should you worry about the biggest fall in semiconductor sales since the Financial Crisis?
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