Category Archives: Investment outlook

Appearance on Max Keiser Show

Keiser is admittedly hyperbolic, but his colorful style has been effective in calling attention to some of the bad practices of financial institutions. This taping was on the day when I seemed to be the Typhoid Mary of studio operations. The audio kept failing (although the folks in NYC told me that happened often with […]

Read more...

Steve Keen: Deleveraging With a Twist

By Steve Keen, Associate Professor of Economics & Finance at the University of Western Sydney, and author of the book Debunking Economics, cross posted from Steve Keen’s Debt Deflation. The latest Flow of Funds release by the US Federal Reserve shows that the private sector is continuing to delever. However there are nuances in this […]

Read more...

Tinkerbell Talk, Parsing the Economic Tea Leaves and Market Schizophrenia

This blog tends to steer away from short-term market commentary because, as the wags say, “If you must forecast, forecast often,” and keeping tabs on the whims of Mr. Market can easily become an exercise in futility. Getting a sense of conditions on the ground and likely business/economic trajectories is a fraught activity even in […]

Read more...

Albert Edwards: Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Denouement

Normally, I don’t reproduce or excerpt from John Mauldin’s popular e-newsletters, but today he features a writer I particularly like, uber bear Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. To repurpose an old saw about pessimists, bears are bulls who have all the facts. Some of Edwards’ arguments, while well documented, aren’t new: employment stinks, the forward-looking […]

Read more...

Andrew Horowitz: Magical Monday – Terrible Tuesday?

By Andrew Horowitz who writes at The Disciplined Investor It is Monday and we know that means either Merger Monday, Mutual Fund Monday or even Magical Monday . Well, it was surely a big volume morning as most traders are back to their desks. As China released their production numbers along with CPI, Asian markets […]

Read more...

Why the Eurozone Bomb Has Not Been Disarmed Yet

Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times gives a good recap as to why the recent spell of good cheer regarding the Eurozone is overdone. His central observation is that the Eurozone, like the US, patched things up with duct tape and bailing wire, and the hope was that the resumption of peppy growth would reduce […]

Read more...

Eurobank Worries Back to the Fore

The end of the US summer holiday period is upon us, and with it, a return to reality. The markets are again concerned re Eurobanks, as the fears registered in EU periphery country bond spreads are now registering with investors in other markets. Per Bloomberg: The gaps between 10- year German bond yields and those […]

Read more...

EU Effectively Forces Securitization Reforms on the US

Wow, the EU is increasingly taking steps to force foreign, meaning US and UK firms, to play by its rules or not have access to its investors. The first salvo occurred over private equity funds and hedge funds, where the EU will limit its investors to funds located in the EU, and is also limiting […]

Read more...

Is Calm on the European Front Merely a Lull Before an Inevitable Storm

During the global financial crisis, after each acute phase, there would be a period of relief in which conditions returned to a semblance of normalcy, and policymakers and investors carried on as if acting as if all was well would make it so. Unfortunately, positive thinking provided only temporary relief from the undertow of rising […]

Read more...

Summer Rerun: Japan Says US Financial Crisis Worse Than Its Bust, Urges Government to Recapitalize Banks

This post first appeared on March 24, 2008 The comments in the Financial Times by Yoshimi Watanabe, Japan’s financial services minister, are extraordinary. He ventured to give the US advice on its credit crunch based on Japan’s experience during its post-bubble-years banking crisis. And it’s not pretty. Why are these remarks so unusual? Consider: Most […]

Read more...

Eurobank Stress Tests: A Failed Confidence Ploy

As much as this blog was a persistent critic of the US version of the stress tests, I must hand it to the folks at the Treasury: they did an impressive job of dressing up and selling a garbage barge. The combination of consistent cheerleading, extend and pretend, and a few short squeezes did wonders […]

Read more...

Andrew Horowitz: NPF Unemployment Preview: Continued Market Strength or September Weakness?

By Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor As discussed in a previous post, the September month has not been kind to investor’s. However, equities have seemingly found some confidence straight out of the gate, so far. The Unemployment numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be the tell tale sign of continued strength […]

Read more...

Whalen Says Forget QE, Get Tough With Banks

Chris Whalen has a particularly tough-minded post at Reuters in which he explains why QE does little for the real economy (similar to the conclusions reached by the Bank of Japan regarding its own QE) and why its benefits for banks fade over time. Key sections: When interest rates are low, savers move their preference […]

Read more...

Lax Basel III Rules to Spur Further Bank Consolidation, Meaning More TBTF?

The “lax” is clearly a tad inflammatory, but tweaks in Basel III rules to allow dubious quality items like mortgage servicing rights as Tier I capital speak volumes. In addition, the various noises from policy makers makes clear that they aren’t willing to make banks raise capital level by much due to fears of the […]

Read more...

More Debate on QE

The Jackson Hole conference starting today is expected to include a talk by Ben Bernanke on the benefits and costs of further monetary easing, which in ZIRP-land means quantitative easing. Gavyn Davies put up a good short list of arguments made against QE at the Financial Times, and most do not look terribly persuasive. One […]

Read more...