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Archive for June, 2011

DSK Prosecution on the Verge of Collapse

The conspiracy theorists in France will have a field day with this development. And I must say, with good reason.

The New York Times reports that even though the forensic evidence makes clear there was a sexual encounter between the former head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the prosecutors (!) have found the witness to have told enough lies to them to put their case in jeopardy. She may have connections to drug dealers and criminal rings.

From the Times (hat tip Scott):

The sexual assault case against Dominique Strauss-Kahn is on the verge of collapse as investigators have uncovered major holes in the credibility of the housekeeper who charged that he attacked her in his Manhattan hotel suite in May…

Since her initial allegation on May 14, the accuser has repeatedly lied…Among the discoveries, one of the officials said, are issues involving the asylum application of the 32-year-old housekeeper, who is Guinean, and possible links to criminal activities, including drug dealing and money laundering….

[T] he woman had a phone conversation with an incarcerated man within a day of her encounter with Mr. Strauss Kahn in which she discussed the possible benefits of pursuing the charges against him. The conversation was recorded.

That man, the investigators learned, had been arrested on charges of possessing 400 pounds of marijuana. He was among a number of individuals who made multiple cash deposits, totaling around $100,000, into the woman’s bank account over the last two years. The deposits were made in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and New York.

They also learned that she was paying hundreds of dollars every month in phone charges to five different companies. The woman insisted she only had a single phone and said she knew nothing about the deposits except that they were made by a man she described as her fiancé and his friends.

In addition, the official said, she told investigators that part of her application for asylum included a previous rape, but there was no such account in the application. She also told them that she had been subjected to genital mutilation, but her account to the investigators differed from what was contained in the asylum application.

According to the article, his bail restrictions are likely to be eased in a hearing scheduled for tomorrow and the prosecutors are apparently trying to get DSK to agree to plead guilty to lesser charges. Given the damage to his name, and the fact that he has a very rich wife, I imagine he’d fight since the credibility of the witness appears to be nada.

Jane Hamsher: What Obama Fights For – Giving $9.55 Billion to North Korea to Spend on Nukes

Yves here. This issue may seem a bit off topic to NC readers, but this subsidy to a state we treat as a mortal danger, and at a time of severe expenditure-cutting, illustrates the degree to which business interests drive American policy.

By Jane Hamsher. Cross posted from FireDogLake.

Yesterday the White House took the last step to owning all three leftover Bush NAFTA-expansion deals with Korea, Colombia and Panama by announcing that they would send them to Congress imminently. The Economic Policy Institute estimates that we’ll lose 159,000 jobs with the Korea deal alone.

At a time of high unemployment, it’s difficult to fathom why the President would be fighting to increase our trade deficit and ship tens of thousands of jobs overseas.

Even more stunning, however, is the loophole in the Obama deal that will hand billions over to North Korea to spend on their nuclear weapons program (PDF).

Under the terms of NAFTA, goods have to have 50% domestic-made content in order to qualify for inclusion. However under KORUS, goods with up to 65% non-South-Korean content qualify, as long as final assembly off goods happens in South Korea. That means 65% of all parts can be made China, Vietnam, wherever — giving rise to fears that the South Korea deal will be a back-door extension of NAFTA for China.

But surely, somebody thought to exclude North Korean content from the deal, right? I mean, with all the huffing and puffing about the need for increased sanctions against North Korea to keep them from funding their nuclear program. At the very least, somebody must have included language in KORUS that makes an exception for US sanctions against North Korea, which would otherwise violate NAFTA’s ban on import licenses.

Well if that’s what you thought, you would be wrong.

Every day, 44,000 North Koreans are marched into a North Korea border sweat shop zone called Kaesong to work for 28 center per hour — of which the Kim regime keeps 55%. In 2007 Ambassador Jay Lefkowitz, the U.S. Special Envoy for Human Rights in North Korea, wrote that Kaesong was one of the only sources of cold hard currency North Korea had to fund its nuclear program:

Because the North Korean government takes a major portion of workers’ salaries, these arrangements provide material support for a rogue government, its nuclear ambitions, and its human rights atrocities.

According to research done by Public Citizen, Obama’s NAFTA-Korea deal not only fails to exclude North Korean content, it allows for a massive expansion of the Kaesong district — and the profits that North Korea will reap (PDF):

The U.S. government estimates that the North Korean government currently collects $3 million to $4 million a month from the Kaesong operations now, prior to a massive planned expansion of the border sweatshop zone. South Korea cut off most trade with North Korea after attacks last year, but left Kaesong trade open. There was $1.9 billion in total trade between the two Koreas in 2009, about half of which was through production by South Korean firms in Kaesong. While $1.9 billion is not a lot of money relative to the U.S. or South Korean economy, it constitutes more than a third of North Korea’s total external trade. Given the Department of Defense estimates that North Korea’s nuclear program cost the regime as little as $200 million to develop, the hard currency generated by North Korean trade flows is sufficient to finance the North’s nuclear proliferation regime several times over.

The North Korean government is projected to receive $9.55 billion in economic gains from Kaesong over nine years under a planned major expansion. This is equivalent to 36 percent of North Korea’s estimated national income. Hyundai and the Korea Land Corporation, the principal developers of Kaesong, plan to enlarge the complex from its current 800 acres to a more than 6,000-acre complex (or nine square miles), where 1,500 South Korean and other foreign firms will employ 350,000 North Korean workers. This would make the complex more than half the size of Alexandria, Virginia.

Is this an accident? Hardly. Members of Congress like Brad Sherman have been waving red flags about the dangers of the Kaesong provisions in KORUS. The Chamber is pushing this deal hard, however, and there’s a lot of money to be made in Kaesong. And as we all know, what the Chamber wants, the Chamber gets.

But let’s do the math here. The US government estimates that the North Koreans are 5 years and $200 million away from having nuclear capacity. I understand why KORUS would benefit the mega corporations that use the Chamber of Commerce as their front, the ones that hope to profiteer off of “slave labor” in Kaesong. But how exactly is it good for the American people to allow North Korea access to US markets? I just don’t see the upside to offshoring jobs, increasing the trade deficit and writing a check to North Korea to spend on nukes.

But then, few people do. Poll after poll shows that the vast majority of the American public – across stunningly diverse demographics – oppose these NAFTA-style trade deals. It’s an issue that has oddly united union members and Tea Partiers, progressives and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans in opposition. The AFL-CIO, Carpenters, Teamsters, CWA, Machinists, IBEW, Steelworkers, Painters, Boilermakers, the Sierra Club, Public Citizen and the National Farmers Union all oppose the deal., as do Republicans like Walter Jones, Ron Paul, and the Campaign for Liberty.

Earlier this month, even White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley (whose job is to sell these trade deals and who helped former President Bill Clinton sell NAFTA to a skeptical Congress) said that workers “lose from these agreements” and implied that campaigning against these NAFTA-style trade agreements could even be an electoral advantage.

But if we’ve learned one thing over the past few years, it’s that broad popular opposition is meaningless when it comes to Chamber’s ability to bribe impose its will on our elected officials. If KORUS passes, the hawks will soon be banging the war drums and warning us all that the smoking gun of North Korea has become a mushroom cloud, now is the time to act.

Because three wars are just not enough, I guess.

Links 6/30/11

Are Amazon Reviews Corrupt? PC Magazine

Bug makes record noise with penis BBC. “On average, the songs of M. scholtzi reached 78.9 decibels, comparable to a passing freight train.”

Breeder of king cobras dies from snake bite Independent (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)

‘War on terror’ set to surpass cost of Second World War Guardian (hat tip reader May S)

Everyone’s a Helot Now The Agonist (hat tip reader BDBlue)

An Unbelievable Video Of Police Brutality In Greece Today Clusterstock. Be sure to read the LOL Greece post it links to.

Now What? Credit Writedowns

Greece crisis: Greek MPs face second austerity vote BBC. Presumably a done deal, but the public reaction has been very hostile.

The Supreme Court’s continuing defense of the powerful Washington Post (hat tip Ed Harrison)

High court undoes Scalia’s pro-tobacco order PhysOrg

The Business of America Is War Steve Lendman

Christie Loses Support for Second Term Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Raises Swipe Fee Cap In Victory For Wall Street Zach Carter, Huffington Post v the report from Pravda: Fed Halves Debit Card Bank Fees New York Times. Notice the use of “draconian” on a product that would have had massive profit margins even at the lower level initially proposed by the Fed.

Lehman creditors in pay-out settlement Financial Times

Monsanto under SEC probe for incentives Financial Times

S.E.C. Delays Rajat Gupta’s Trial for Six Months New York Times

Fannie Mae Silence on Taylor Bean Mortgages Opened Way to $3 Billion Fraud Bloomberg (hat tip reader Robert M)

BofA Haunted by Countrywide Deal Wall Street Journal. We’ve pointed it out before, but we said this was a remarkably stupid deal from the get go (as in 2007, when BofA had merely bought a stake in Countrywide).

Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure New York Times. This shows how susceptible poll/survey results are to how the question is phrased. Other surveys have shown record high levels of people disenchanted with home ownership.

Antidote du jour:

BofA “Settlement”: Not a Done Deal, and Not a Good Deal for Investors

The so-called Bank of America settlement, in which the Charlotte bank is set to pay $8.5 billion (plus some additional expenses) to settle representation and warranty liability on 530 mortgage trusts representing $424 billion of par value, is being hailed as a possible template for other mortgage issuers and servicers.

I sure hope not, because some of the things I see in this deal look plenty troubling. Since this settlement has a lot of constituent elements and I want to cross check my reading with lawyers on this beat (I’ve been in contact with some, but they have not digested the documents fully either), I’ll simply flag a few high level issues.

The deal is not done. The settlement is actually between the trustee, Bank of New York, and Bank of America. The deal is subject to a so-called Article 77 proceeding. Objections are to be filed by October 31 and the hearing to approve the settlement is set for November 17.

The deal should be presumed to be favorable to Bank of America. Let’s just look at this from a game theory perspective. We’ve hectored Tom Miller for doing a bad job of representing his fellow state attorneys general in their mortgage negotiations for doing no investigation and therefore having no smoking gun and not much leverage. We have a different fact set and process but similar issues here. The investors had to overcome procedural issues even to be able to litigate. And MBIA, which is suing over similar issues but didn’t have the procedural impediments, is three years into litigation with Countrywide and is not very far along. This sort of case is a war of attrition and as a result, as we have indicated, even if the facts are lousy, there is reason to think that an eventual settlement would not be all that large even relative to the value of loans being disputed (the investors need to prove not only that the reps and warranties occurred, but that they led to losses. A lot of defaults, particularly post the subprime resets, are due to job losses and reductions in income. They can’t be blamed on failing to live up to the reps and warranties).

So with all these considerations arguing for fighting a few more rounds, and BofA in the past taking a very aggressive posture on disputing these cases, why would it settle?

The other side has no ability to judge what it might get since it has not gotten access to the loan files (the Clayton reports that everyone makes noise about which found pretty significant violations of representations, did not look at which were significant from a risk of loss perspective. So they may make for great headline, but they aren’t very helpful in this context.

Put it simply: BofA can judge what its risks are VASTLY better than the investors. There are a lot of reasons why it would make sense for BofA not to settle now. Yet it was all over this like a cheap suit. That says it must regard this settlement as a real bargain.

The investors are giving Bank of America a broader release than just of the rep and warranty claims. This looks like a “get out of liability free” care on chain of title issues. The critical bit is the release, which is section 9 (boldface ours):

Effective as of the Approval Date, except as set forth in Paragraph 10, the Trustee on behalf of itself and all Investors, the Covered Trusts, and/or any Persons claiming by, through, or on behalf of any of the Trustee, the Investors, or the Covered Trusts or under the Governing Agreements (collectively, the Trustee, Investors, Covered Trusts, and such Persons being defined together as the “Precluded Persons”), irrevocably and unconditionally grants a full, final, and complete release, waiver, and discharge of all alleged or actual claims, counterclaims, defenses, rights of setoff, rights of rescission, liens, disputes, liabilities, Losses, debts, costs, expenses, obligations, demands, claims for accountings or audits, alleged Events of Default, damages, rights, and causes of action of any kind or nature whatsoever, whether asserted or unasserted, known or unknown, suspected or unsuspected, fixed or contingent, in contract, tort, or otherwise, secured or unsecured, accrued or unaccrued, whether direct, derivative, or brought in any other capacity that the Precluded Persons may now or may hereafter have against any or all of the Bank of America Parties and/or Countrywide Parties arising out of or relating to (i) the origination, sale, or delivery of Mortgage Loans to the Covered Trusts, including the representations and warranties in connection with the origination, sale, or delivery of Mortgage Loans to the Covered Trusts or any alleged obligation of any Bank of America Party and/or Countrywide Party to repurchase or otherwise compensate the Covered Trusts for any MortgageLoan on the basis of any representations or warranties or otherwise or failure to cure any alleged breaches of representations and warranties, including all claims arising in any way from or under Section 2.03 (“Representations, Warranties and Covenants of the Sellers and Master Servicer”)1 of the Governing Agreements, (ii) the documentation of the Mortgage Loans held by the Covered Trusts (including the documents and instruments covered in Sections 2.01 (“Conveyance of Mortgage Loans”) and 2.02 (“Acceptance by the Trustee of the Mortgage Loans”) of the Governing Agreements and the Mortgage Files) including with respect to alleged defective, incomplete, or non-existent documentation, as well as issues arising out of or relating to recordation, title, assignment, or any other matter relating to legal enforceability of a Mortgage or Mortgage Note, and (iii) the servicing of the Mortgage Loans held by the Covered Trusts (including any claim relating to the timing of collection efforts or foreclosure efforts, loss mitigation, transfers to subservicers, Advances, Servicing Advances, or that servicing includes an obligation to take any action or provide any notice towards, or with respect to, the possible repurchase of Mortgage Loans by the Master Servicer, Seller, or any other Person), in all cases prior to or after the Approval Date (collectively, all such claims being defined as the “Trust Released Claims”).

Each of the three bolded sections is horrific.

Um, remember how we’ve been saying, and it appeared to have been confirmed by testimony in Kemp v. Countrywide, that all the notes were sitting with Countrywide when they were supposed to be with the trustee, and they were therefore almost certainly not endorsed as required by the pooling and servicing agreement? This looks like a way to shunt liability for this little problem.

The second bolded section gets Countrywide as originator out of any liability for chain of title issues.

The third bolded section would seem to allow Countrywide as servicer to shed liability for servicing abuses of all sort (there is qualifying language in section 10, but it does not seem to address the concerns I discuss here, but I welcome input and correction if warranted). All those impermissible fees to borrowers, such as junk fees, pyramiding fees, and overcharges, ultimately come out of the investors’ hides, since the borrowers go tits up and they payments ultimately are deducted from the proceeds of the sale of the house. And there are more obvious abuses of investors, like double dipping (charing fees to both investors and borrowers when only one should be charged) and servicers taking fees out of refi cash streams when they should only come from foreclosure proceeds.

As indicated, there is a good bit more here, but I wanted to stick to the biggest issue, which is the money versus the terms of the release. And the release looks to be far too broad and therefore a terrible deal to investors. This suggests the attorney may be savvy at getting deals hammered out and winning her fees but not at representing the real interests of her clients.

Update: This deal does not waive securities law claims but I don’t regard those as a major issue for Bank of America (the trustee is another matter), since the statute of limitations has passed as far as the origination of these deals is concerned. There is still liability on the ongoing representations made in annual filings on these RMBS (transactions with fewer than 50 investors can stop making those filings but virtually every deal made at least one annual filing).

There is also a longish discussion in paragraph 6 of how Bank of America is to prepare exception reports, and the bank is required to pay out 100% of any losses in cases where losses resulting from these errors is not covered by title insurance. Masaccio provides a good summary:

If a document is still on the revised exceptions list, with both a documentation error and a title insurance error, when an RMBS tries to foreclose, and if the RMBS is unable to foreclose because of documentation errors, and if no insurance is available, then BAC has to pay the entire loss.

The reason I don’t regard this language as all that helpful to investors is that despite its length, it actually fails to address the overwhelming majority of standing challenges:

The Initial Exceptions Report Schedule shall be prepared in good faith, after reasonable diligence, and shall include each Mortgage Loan in the Covered Trusts (including, for the avoidance of doubt, Mortgage Loans for which the servicing rights are sold following the Signing Date) that, on the Trustee’s Loan-Level Exception Reports (as defined below), is subject to both(A) a document exception relating to mortgages coded “photocopy” (CO), “copy with recording information” (CR), “document missing” (DM), “county recorded copy with comments” (IN), “certified copy not recorded” (NR), “original with comments” (OO), “unrecorded original” (OX), “pool review pending” (PR), “contract” (CONT), and “certified copy-issuer” (CI) on the Trustee’s Loan-Level Exception Reports, (“Mortgage Exceptions”) and (B) a document exception relating to title policies or their legal equivalent coded “document missing” (DM), “title commitment” (CM), or “preliminary title report” (PL) on the Trustee’s Loan-Level Exception Reports, (“Title Policy Exceptions”), provided that it shall exclude any such Mortgage Loan registered on the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (“MERS”). Mortgage Loans paid in full or liquidated as of the Signing Date shall not be included in the Initial Exceptions Report Schedule.

This thus precludes MERS and local recording issues (note our post earlier today with adverse decisions in Oregon), failures to have complete chain of title, efforts to transfer the note into the trust after the cutoff date in the PSA, etc. There is no requirement to see whether the notes and assignments comply with the requirements of the PSAs.

As masaccio notes: “The settlement is based on the theory that documentation errors can be cured at this late date.” A significant and growing number of judges have rejected that theory. Yet the broad release dumps the risk of judges taking the errors and misrepresentations made by the originators and servicers seriously and rejecting foreclosure actions on the investors when it should properly sit with the parties that created this mess.

In addition to masaccio’s, two other useful overview posts come from Adam Levitin and D&O Diary (hat tip Arthur).

US Bank Halts Evictions in Oregon After Judge Reverses Foreclosure

Oregon judges have delivered a series of setbacks to servicers and securitization trusts. A recent decision, Hooker v. Northwest Trustee Services, ruled that assignments of the beneficial interest (as in, transfers of the note) needed to be recorded. That makes any foreclosure in the name of the mortgage registry MERS a non-starter, since MERS was never and could never be the holder of the beneficial interest. This will have little impact going forward, since MERS has instructed servicers to stop foreclosing in its name, but there are plenty of foreclosures in the pipeline that were initiated in the name of MERS.

The latest move is that Judge Grand reversed a foreclosure sale due to the failure of the parties representing the lender to satisfy the requirements of Oregon’s recording statute. To put it mildly, foreclosure actions are seldom reversed. The decision is terse but it has wideranging ramifications. The Oregonian provided a good write-up of the case. Key extracts:

A Columbia County judge has blocked U.S. Bank from evicting a Vernonia woman whose home it purchased in foreclosure, concluding in a case with far-reaching implications that her lenders had not properly recorded mortgage documents.

Last week’s action appears to be the first in which an Oregon judge has halted an eviction and declared a foreclosure sale void after the fact. The ruling, if it stands, raises questions about the validity of other recent foreclosures in the state and could create serious problems for lenders and title companies, as well as for buyers of such properties…

A U.S. Bank spokeswoman said the bank would cease further eviction action and assess its “appropriate next steps.”

Nearly all foreclosures in the state occur without a judge’s involvement under so-called nonjudicial proceedings. But this ruling, legal observers say, could potentially divert more foreclosure actions into courtrooms, a more time-consuming and costly proposition that could exacerbate the state’s housing slump.

“This will certainly be problematic for lenders,” said David Ambrose, a Portland real-estate attorney.

It also casts doubt on the validity of already completed foreclosure sales in which lenders resold mortgages without recording the sales in county recorder offices. Many of those questionable transactions, including Flynn’s, involve the Mortgage Electronic Recording System….

The path will remain muddled for the mortgage industry until a definitive case reaches the Oregon Supreme Court or lenders decide to take a different strategy and negotiate settlements with distressed homeowners, real estate attorneys say.

The article has the background of the case and makes clear that this is a qualified win for the borrower, since it is unclear who has title to her condo. She bought it 20 years ago (and therefore has equity in the property) but fell behind on payments after she quit her job and her new business proceeds plus other sources of income weren’t enough for her to stay current.

Marshall Auerback: “Extend and Pretend” Continues in the Euro Zone

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager. Cross posted from New Deal 2.0.

Markets are celebrating the triumph of an anti-labor, pro-capital agenda. But is social unrest the consequence?

The Europeans genuinely must genuinely believe that they can get blood out of a stone. Or perhaps resort to a modern day equivalent of turning lead into gold. There’s no other reason to explain the euphoria now prevalent in the markets, in light of the approval by Greece’s lawmakers to pass a key austerity bill, thereby paving the way for the country to get its next bailout loans that will prevent it from defaulting next month.

The €28 billion ($40 billion), five-year package of spending cuts and tax rises was backed by a majority of the 300-member parliament on Wednesday, including Socialist deputy Alexandros Athanassiadis, who had previously vowed to vote against. The European Union and International Monetary Fund had demanded the austerity measures pass before they approve the release of a €12 billion loan installment from last year’s rescue package.

So default is averted for now, which is clearly the main reason behind the global equity rally seen over the past few days. But will the package work? Here’s a look at the details of the Greek Medium Term Fiscal Bill.

The projections for Real GDP Growth are:

2012: 0.8%
2013: 2.1%
2014: 2.1%
2015: 2.7%

The projections for expenditures (bn euros) are:

2012: 79.491
2013: 83.467
2014: 83.363
2015: 85.39

GDP growth rising in the midst of fiscal austerity? How is this possible? Everyone knows the current planned financing of Greece is a band aid. With this new financing, Greece’s sovereign debt to GDP ratio will rise to almost 170%. It will be more bust than ever. Its real GDP may fall by another 4%. Social tolerance for such austerity — already strained — will become less. If that wasn’t evident before, it should have been today, given the sight of various reporters in front of the Greek Parliament wearing tear gas masks as they reported on the “success” of the Greek austerity vote.

Can the package passed today deliver increased revenues? The Greeks apparently think so, if one is to judge by the budget projections.

Actual projections of revenues:

2012: 60.959
2013: 62.454
2014: 63.192
2015: 64.924

Now, to be fair, much of the problem is an antiquated revenue system that supports that state, which results in a budget shortfall consistently about 10% of GDP. Greek economist George Stathakis, for example, has suggested that that the top 20% of the income distribution in Greece pay no taxes at all, which may somewhat of an exaggeration but, if only partially true, suggests that a modicum of tax compliance could perhaps generate an increase in revenues in spite of the austerity measures being introduced.

Perhaps. But it’s hard to see how the EU’s attempt to squeeze more blood out of the Greeks will generate increases of revenue of this magnitude. If one examines the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy submitted to Parliament on June 8th 2011, it appears that the Greek authorities are basically banking on is a big rise in private consumption and investment by 2013 (both of which are negative contributors to GDP today) to reduce their deficit, even as government consumption continues to decline. So they are essentially assuming a “fiscal consolidation boom”, even though there has been no historical precedent of the kind to justify this kind of a forecast. The Canadian example does not fit because it was accompanied by a huge depreciation of the Canadian dollar, thereby generating a huge turn in Canada’s current account and largely offsetting the impact of the budget cuts. As a member of the euro zone, this option is unavailable to the Greeks.

The short term hope must therefore be ongoing debt restructuring, continued ECB purchases of Greek debt in the secondary market (allowing central banks to buy the debt), guarantees, and lending. The hope is that the financial institutions holding all the periphery government debt can either move it off their balance sheets, or use the American method of “extend and pretend” to avoid recognizing the institutions are fundamentally insolvent.

Short of a fiscal union (which is the ultimate solution to the woes of the euro zone), there are other measures which the Greeks could adopt to make their bonds more attractive to external investors, thereby preventing the markets “shutting the country down” on the grounds that they refuse to extend further credit to a fundamentally insolvent country. Warren Mosler and I have suggested one such alternative: Greece could successfully issue and place new debt at low interest rates. The trick is to insert a provision stating that in the event of default, the bearer on demand can use those defaulted securities to pay Greek government taxes. This makes it immediately obvious to investors that those new securities are ‘money good’ and will ultimately redeem for face value for as long as the Greek government levies and enforces taxes. This would not only allow Greece to fund itself at low interest rates, but it would also serve as an example for the rest of the euro zone, and thereby ease the funding pressures on the entire region.

This suggestion, of course, does not deal with the problem of aggregate demand. But it provides an attractive instrument for the Greek government (and other periphery states) to secure private funding and possibly at lower rates of interest. The bigger issue of aggregate demand, however, is still yet to be addressed, and it is hard to envisage a sustainable recovery in Greece, or, indeed, the entire euro zone, without changes to its institutional structures. Of particular concern is the absence of a fiscal authority which would allow the ECB to stick to monetary policy while giving a European Treasury the purse strings to deal with the crisis.

Opposition to a broader fiscal authority, however, is mounting in the core as the crisis has increased hostility among the members. No one wants to cede power to the center. This opposition also reflects the fact that the third convergence — between elite and public opinion — has also failed to take place. But it also reflects a failure to understand the institutional limitations at the heart of the euro zone. In fact, having lost monetary sovereignty by adopting the euro, core countries such as Germany have more to gain by stabilizing their respective domestic economies by running large deficits during a downturn and boosting consumption, rather than deflating countries like Greece into the ground. That approach is ultimately self-defeating for the prosperous core countries. As Randy Wray has argued:

If the blood-letting and crushing of wages in the periphery actually does work, the factories will be moved out of Germany seeking lower cost workers. In other words, success in the periphery would shift the burden back to Germany’s workers, who would have to accept lower wages to compete. That will be fueled by job losses if Germany cannot find sales outside the EU that will be lost as the periphery nations fall farther into depression. The result will be a nice little rush to the bottom, benefiting Europe’s elite.

Implicit in the drive to create a Germanic style “stability culture” is the belief that public debt is invariably an evil, the consequences of which must be stopped at all costs. But as events of the past decade have clearly demonstrated, excessive private sector debt build-up, notably in Asia and the United States, has played a far more destabilizing role in the global economy than fiscal profligacy, which undercuts one of the main rationales for retaining the Stability Pact in its current form.

If we say that the government can run budget surpluses for 15 years, what we are ignoring is that this means the private sector will have to run deficits for 15 years. The private sector, in this case, would be going into debt that totals trillions of dollars in order to allow the government to retire its debt. Does that make sense? Again, it is hard to see why households would be better off if they owed more debt, just so that the government would owe them less.

The Eurocrats, led by the ECB, are now using this crisis to ram through their vision of Europe, which is fundamentally anti-labor and pro capital. That explains why the markets are celebrating today. But it lays the groundwork for more hostility and conflict in the future.

Wasn’t this precisely what the European Union was designed to prevent?

The U-Shaped Jobs Recovery

Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns

Since the recession in 1990-91, the recovery of employment in the US has had a U-shape that is nothing like the previous post-World War II employment recoveries. This one will be the worst.

Source: The Changing Shape of Unemployment

Links 6/29/11

Burglars include family pets in stolen loot Miami Herald (hat tip Buzz Potamkin) :-(

Bumblebees Appear to Equate Marginal Costs and Marginal Benefits Mark Thoma

A Land of Haves and Have-Nots Consortium News

Spine Experts Repudiate Medtronic Studies New York Times

Wars steadily increase for over a century, fed by more borders and cheaper conflict PhysOrg (hat tip reader Robert M)

Greece faces ‘suicide’ vote on austerity Financial Times. This is looking like a bad rerun of the crisis, in that the authorities have assumed they can force the other side to come to heel and have left themselves no Plan B. And they are using the same type of threats we heard with the TARP.

Greece Erupts Over Austerity Wall Street Journal

Union-Busting Tactics More Pervasive Than Previously Thought: Study Huffington Post (hat tip reader May S)

No More Excuses, Rape is Rape! Peter Rothberg (hat tip reader Carol B). Don’t think DSK can use this in his defense.

Why Is It Relevant That EPI Gets Money from Teacher Unions, But It’s Not Relevant That Erskine Bowles Gets $350,000 a Year from Morgan Stanley? Dean Baker

More on the Medicare-for-Revenues Swap Floated in Debt Limit Deal Dave Dayen, FireDogLake

Could Obama Just Ignore the Debt Ceiling? New York Times

New Jersey’s Credit Line with JP Morgan Bond Girl

NY AG Schneiderman: I’m Not Signing Onto Foreclosure Fraud Settlement Dave Dayen, FireDogLake. We’d said he wasn’t signing on, I guess it is now official

Treasury Assails OCC on Draft Rule Wall Street Journal. Is this just Treasury trying to placate some pissed off Congressmen? This is not normal bureaucratic behavior.

Hoenig: Big banks are fundamentally inconsistent with capitalism Ed Harrison

Consumer Confidence Tanks In June The Daily Capitalist (hat tip reader Carol B)

RESPONSE FROM COMMISSION ON JUDICIAL CONDUCT TO SUNNY SHEU’S URGENT EMAIL REPORTING DEATH THREAT The Murder of Sunny Sheu

Antidote du jour (hat tip Lambert Strether). Loukanikos the protest dog:

Andrew Sheng Says Sustainability Means Caging Godzillas

Andrew Sheng, Chief Adviser to the China Banking Regulatory Commission, is wonderfully straightforward and realistic for an economist. He is willing to say, as he does in this video, things that are obvious yet somehow unacceptable to ‘fess up to in policy circles, like the planet simply cannot support 3 billion people in Asia living European lifestyles. He warns of the danger of creating the mother of all crises if governments cannot stem the tide of leveraged capital flows, and also discusses the role of China on the global stage.

Enjoy!

Bank of America Likely to Settle Case with NY Fed, Pimco, Blackrock for $8.5 Billion

I must confess I am surprised that Bank of America is close to settling a litigation threat by a group of investors headed by the New York Fed, Pimco, and Blackrock, which was discussed in the media quite a bit last fall for a reported $8.5 billion.

While most threatened litigation is settled out of court, this case in theory had to overcome procedural hurdles for any suit to be filed, and no group of investors had ever surmounted this impediment. Chris Whalen similarly noted that BofA could simply tell the investors to “pound sand.” However, we had noted that if it moved forward, that this type of case, a representation and warranties case, is always settled because they are too expensive to fight in court.

And representation and warranties cases of this type (which would demand that the servicer make the originator buy back dud loans) requires that the investors not merely prove that the seller lied, but that the lies were THE reason that the losses on specific mortgages took place (as opposed to normal “shit happens” loan losses, meaning due to unemployment or other loss of income, death, and disability). That means even if the judge approves the use of a sample that each side still will argue on the individual cases within that sample. Think how many loans that would involve across what as of the last sighting was reported to be 115 deals. Because these case are so costly to pursue, settlements historically have been 10% to 15% of the value of the loans alleged to have been misrepresented.

We had pencilled a settlement amount, if the case went that route as much lower, but that was also using the Wall Street Journal report that the amount of the bonds included in this action was $16.5 billion. The amount at issue ultimately was $58 billion, and 22 investors were involved, so we assume the much bigger amount is in large measure due to the increase in the number of participants and the much greater value of bonds). So if you gross up our estimate for the increased size and apply the same methodology we used earlier, you get to over $4 billion versus the $8.5 billion under discussion. While that’s a big disparity, the estimates by the litigation bulls were more off in the other direction.

But this begs the question: would BofA settle this case, and for this kind of number? It’s stance heretofore on these putback cases has been the banking equivalent of the Churchillian “We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.” And mortgage insurers, who have much better access to the underlying loan data, have not been able to prove widespread fraud, or even widespread breaches.

These are some factors that may have played into this change of heart:

The first reason may be that Bank of America has changed strategy and has decided it needs to put the matter behind them. Management or perhaps the board may have reacted to the damage to the stock price and concluded that it needed to fold. The dreaded “uncertainty” was taking too big a toll.

Second is the plaintiff’s lawyer may have convinced BofA that they had a way to overcome the procedural hurdle, which other investors had not been able to surmount on similar cases. As we had noted earlier:

The problem in suing is a bit circular: you need to be able to argue specifically what sort of breaches occured, but the investors lack access to the loan information to enable them to refer to specific breaches in a lawsuit. Or to put it in a bit more legalistically, unless the pooling and servicing agreement gives the certificateholders some rights to access to the loan files, you are likely to have an impediment: you may not be able to allege specific enough breaches to get to perform discovery.

And in that case, the issue would not just be Bank of America’s exposure to losses but the damage that could be done in discovery. And that damage comes on multiple fronts: the continuing bad press and resultant damage to the stock price of the sordid details of of how dreadful Countrywide was, and the revelations serving as grist for litigation by other investors. However, this settlement effectively proves that BofA can be shaken down with a threat of litigation that has never overcome certain procedural obstacles. The Wall Street Journal notes that any settlement may encourage other aggrieved parties to act:

The deal could embolden mutual-fund managers, insurance companies and investment partnerships to go after similar settlements with other major U.S. banks, arguing that billions in loans scooped up before the U.S. housing collapse didn’t meet sellers’ promises or were improperly managed. Most vulnerable would be Wells Fargo & Co and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which along with Bank of America collect loan payments on about half of all.

Third is that there may be evidence in other litigation underway (for instance, MBIA is suing Countrywide over similar issues, and mortgage insurer have much stronger contractual rights to putbacks than investors) that the bank knew might allow these investors to add more claims to their litigation that had additional economic value (as in the settlement might be broad and include any litigation related to these bonds, and BofA recognized that with this big an investor group united, it was exposed to other sorts of action.

More broadly, this development at a minimum shows that Bank of America to be running scared. I wonder what other shoes might be about to drop on the mortgage front.

And it also confirms our initial take on the Countrywide deal, which we disapproved of merely when BofA made an investment in the struggling subprime lender:

…even though the financial press has almost universally hailed Bank of America’s investment in Countrywide as a bold and savvy stroke, the market has remained singularly unimpressed.

I will confess I haven’t studied the details of the deal for a simple reason: I’m appalled that B of A would even consider it. The two banks had reportedly been talking for six years. That means B of A knew, or ought to have known, Countrywide very well. An article by Gretchen Morgenson in Sunday’s New York Times paints Countrywide is, at least in spirit if not the letter of the law, a criminal enterprise, aggressively targeting misrepresenting its products and pushing customers into unnecessarily costly mortgages.
…. I know lawyers who have Countrywide in their crosshairs, and I am certain they have plenty of company.

To put it another way: there’s enough fraudulent selling in the the subprime market in general, and smoke around Countrywide in particular, to deter anyone investor who takes litigation or reputation risk seriously.

In my day, no respectable institution would make a high-profile equity investment or otherwise closely link its name with an organization that had the whiff of serious liability about it (except in liquidation or some other scenario which got rid of the incumbent management team).

So even though underestimated Bank of America’s anxiety to settle a specific action that would be costly to prove in court, this move would be consistent with the risks we identified back in 2007.

Update: An attorney who is a card-carrying Countrywide hater pinged me to express skepticism about this news item. He said that the plaintiff’s attorney has been trying to move this action forward via press releases, and he can’t fathom any reason for BofA to settle ex having the other side overcome the heretofore unbeaten procedural hurdle. So he thinks this will prove to be more bluster.

Update, 12:00 AM: As details come in, this is more consistent with our initial views. I pinged MBS Guy. His response:

I can’t find any news confirming that the lawsuits were ever filed. Just a threatening letter to the trustees that the clock was ticking and they had 60 days to respond (starting from back in October, 2010, by the way).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-19/pimco-new-york-fed-said-to-seek-bank-of-america-repurchase-of-mortgages.html

Back in March, they were still discussing the terms of the letter. http://www.gibbsbruns.com/countrywide-rmbs-effort-gibbs–bruns-llp-issues-statement-03-31-2011/

In addition, the Sub-prime Shakeout website suggests that the bonds affected by the settlement actually have a current amount of $84 billion according to Bloomberg, compared to the $56 billion cited by the WSJ. In addition, the original amount of these bonds is, again according to Bloomberg, $182 billion. http://www.subprimeshakeout.com/2011/06/breaking-news-bofa-close-to-reaching-8-5-bn-settlement-with-blackrock-pimco-100th-post.html

Loans are repurchased at the stated principal amount, plus accrued interest – which is the original principal less any amortization that has occurred.

If the bonds affected are $84 billion, this sounds like it would be the best number for comparison, which means the $8.5 billion settlement would be equal to 10.1% of outstanding par of the deals. If true, then this isn’t a bad settlement for BofA and probably about at the same level as they are settling the Fannie and Freddie claims.

Also, as suggested by Subprime Shakeout – can these investors and the trustee really settle on behalf of all of the investors? Can BofA really get a release from all potential litigation relating to reps and warrants for their deals from this type of action? It seems awfully suspect to me, but if true, then maybe it really would be a good deal for BofA.

Ultimately, I remain skeptical that BofA would settle for such a large amount without even the filing of a lawsuit when the have lawsuits pending against them which they have fought tooth and nail from MBIA, Ambac, FGIC, Syncora and MGIC for an aggregate amount in excess of $20 billion worth of losses on approximately $60 billion worth of deals.

Where did this information come from (hint – Kathy Patrick) and why are the press accounts so varied on the details? I’m fairly certain there is more to this story.

And this comment from reader Pelican:

“The settlement goes beyond just the $56 billion of securities owned by these investors, however. It covers nearly all of $424 billion in mortgages that Countrywide issued, which were then packaged into mortgage bonds. That means that a broader group of investors will share in the proceeds, according to the people who were briefed on the proposed settlement, but were not allowed to speak publicly.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/29/business/29mortgage.html?partner=yahoofinance

If BofA can settle on $424 billion of bonds for $8.5 billon, that’s 2%, which is a screaming bargain, particularly if they get a broad waiver.

Capital and liquidity: whose problem?

By Richard Smith, surfacing briefly again.

Jon Daniellsson of the LSE has spotted something odd about the Basel III debate on capital levels:

In the ongoing debate on Basel III, one of the most contentious issues has been the level of bank capital. One might think that the countries making the biggest public noises about problems of excessive risk-taking and speculation would be exactly those demanding higher capital. After all, higher capital directly reduces leverage and risk taking, increasing safety.

Surprisingly, it is the opposite.

  • The main champions for more capital are the US, UK and Switzerland,
  • The opposition is led by Germany and France.

And he speculates darkly about the reasons why the French and Germans oppose giving national regulators discretion to impose higher capital levels than the new Basel III minimum (7% of RWAs):

Perhaps, the real reason for the French and German opposition to variable capital standards can both be found in weaknesses in those countries’ bank assets and their willingness to use taxpayers’ money to bail out the banks.

Could be, but one would like some evidence. Besides, the other link between the US, UK and Switzerland is that they all recently engaged in really massive banking bailouts, and may not feel like repeating the exercise for a while, thank you.

There’s something else though, that might better support Danielsson’s claim. In parallel with the debate on Basel III capital levels, we have plenty of chatter about the effect of a Greek default on the financial system. The bosses of the big banks are saying it could be pretty nasty; here’s Ackermann of Deutsche Bank:

Josef Ackermann cautioned against any steps that could spread the crisis to other vulnerable countries in the 12-year old currency bloc.

“If it is Greece alone, that’s already big. But if other countries are drawn in through contagion, it could be bigger than Lehman,” the Deutsche Bank chief said at a Reuters banking event on Monday.

And here’s Ghizzoni, CEO of Unicredit:

If, after a year of discussion without conclusion, we conclude there will be a haircut, the next morning the market will massacre Ireland, Portugal and maybe other countries.

So would a Greek default be another Lehman, or bigger, or a “massacre”? We are going to find out eventually, and for what it’s worth there is a robust challenge to the doom-mongering in today’s Guardian, though I am surprised its writer thinks there was no warning of the Lehman collapse. He should have been reading “Naked Capitalism”. Certainly, though,  no-one did much to prepare for Lehman’s very foreseeable implosion; in which respect it does resemble Greece somewhat.

Perhaps the real point of these utterances is in fact to start getting ready for a Greek default, or default-like event, or whatever it will be. From a bank exec’s point of view there’d be no harm in a spot of proactive corraling of the politicians, who have much more say in bank capital and liquidity levels, especially in a crisis, than the Basel committee. For an indication of progress on the corraling, refer to Merkel:

Merkel said June 18 in Berlin that policy makers must make sure the Greek crisis doesn’t infect the rest of the euro region and spark a new global financial crisis.

“We all lived through Lehman Brothers,” she told a meeting of activists from her ruling Christian Democrat party. “I don’t want another such threat to emanate from Europe. We wouldn’t be able to control an insolvency.”

Frau Dr Merkel is well and truly onside with the banks, I would say, even down to this irritating “Greece is another Lehman” meme (shade of last year’s interminable “Country X is not Country Y” burblings from all and sundry).

The message that’s coming through loud, clear and confident from these media statements, and from the Eurolobbying against the Basel III rules, is this: bank capital and liquidity are not going to be problems for the banks. Instead, the politicians will fix it, which is to say, some angry taxpayers, somewhere, will fix it.

“Somalia has slightly higher standards than Wyoming and Nevada” (Corporate Secrecy Edition)

We’ve taken an interest in tax havens thanks to Nicholas Shaxson’s book Treasure Islands, which is a must read. Although the book gives a historical account of the rise of what he calls “offshore”, which includes forms of tax avoidance that extend beyond the use of secrecy jurisdictions, which gives the UK the leading role, Shaxson discusses is that the US is the now the biggest tax haven in the world. He discussed briefly the role of Wyoming, which has incorporation rules that are so lax that it is trivial to hide the owners of Wyoming domiciled companies.

An article in Reuters fleshes out this topic in more detail. I encourage you to read it in full. Key extracts:

The secretive business havens of Cyprus and the Cayman Islands face a potent rival: Cheyenne, Wyoming….

All the activity at 2710 Thomes is part of a little-noticed industry in the U.S.: the mass production of paper businesses…The hotbeds of the industry are three states with a light regulatory touch-Delaware, Wyoming and Nevada.

The pervasiveness of corporate secrecy on America’s shores stands in stark contrast to Washington’s message to the rest of the world. Since the September 11 attacks in 2001, the U.S. has been calling forcefully for greater transparency in global transactions, to lift the veil on shadowy money flows. During a debate in 2008, presidential candidate Barack Obama singled out Ugland House in the Cayman Islands, reportedly home to some 12,000 offshore corporations, as “either the biggest building or the biggest tax scam on record.”

Yet on U.S. soil, similar activity is perfectly legal…. Convicted felons can operate firms which create companies, and buy them with no background checks.

No states license mass incorporators, and only a few require them to formally register with state authorities. None collect the names and addresses of “beneficial owners,” the individuals with a controlling interest in corporations, according to a 2009 report by the National Association of Secretaries of State, a group for state officials overseeing incorporation. Wyoming and Nevada allow the real owners of corporations to hide behind “nominee” officers and directors with no direct role in the business, often executives of the mass incorporator.

“In the U.S., (business incorporation) is completely unregulated,” says Jason Sharman, a professor at Griffith University in Nathan, Australia, who is preparing a study for the World Bank on corporate formation worldwide. “Somalia has slightly higher standards than Wyoming and Nevada.”

An estimated 2 million corporations and limited liability companies are created each year in the U.S., according to Senate investigators. The Treasury Department has singled out LLCs as particularly vulnerable to being used as shell companies, as they can be owned by anyone and managed anonymously. Delaware, Nevada and Wyoming had 688,000 LLCs on file in 2009, up from 624,000 in 2007.

Treasury and state banking regulators say banks have flagged billions of dollars in suspicious transactions involving U.S. shell companies in recent years. On June 10, a federal judge in Oregon ordered a company registered there to pay $60 million for defrauding a Ukrainian government agency through sham transactions involving shell companies. The civil lawsuit described a network of U.S.-registered shells connected to fraud in Eastern Europe and Afghanistan.

A growing niche in the shell business is shelf corporations. Like paper-only shells, which enable the secrecy-minded to hide real ownership of assets, shelf companies are set up by firms like Wyoming Corporate Services, then left “on the shelf” to season for years. They’re then sold later to owners looking for a quick way to secure bank loans, bid on contracts, and project financial stability. To speed up business activity, shelf corporations can often be purchased with established bank accounts, credit histories and tax returns filed with the Internal Revenue Service.

“They just slot in your names, and you walk away with the company. Presto!” says Daniel E. Karson, executive managing director at investigative firm Kroll Inc. “The purpose is to conceal ownership.”…

Shell companies remain a headache for law-enforcement authorities. Officials say court-ordered subpoenas served on incorporators of shell and shelf corporations generally do deliver the names of the real owners hiding behind nominees. But if the owners are not U.S. citizens or companies, the investigation often hits a dead-end, they say.

There are additional hurdles. Wyoming Corporate Services charges $2,500 per year to supply an attorney who can provide an extra shield. Cheyenne attorney Graham Norris Jr. tells prospective clients sent to him by WCS that he will create a company on their behalf. That way, he says, he can invoke attorney-client privilege-adding a layer of privacy anytime there is an inquiry about their identities.

The in-depth report continues here.

Needless to say, on the one hand, we have the prospect of a budget deal that includes cuts to Medicare and on the other hand, tolerance of procedures that allow large scale tax evasion to occur (the IRS could stop this if it chose to by refusing to give IRS tax IDs to corporations that failed to provide the identities of owners). Not hard to see whose interests are served by this policy combo plate.

On Eurozone budgetary constraints

Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns

“Slovenia becomes the new problem child of the EU”. This is the headline today in Handelsblatt, a leading German financial newspaper. Below is a translation of that article and a few comments:

Slovenia was long regarded as a model country. But now it is becoming a new problem case for the euro-zone. The government needs to cut vigorously to avoid Greece’s fate.

Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Euro group, and Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, has called on the small country to take drastic cost-cutting efforts.The government in Ljubljana must not increase the national debt. Otherwise a fate similar to Greece’s could threaten Slovenia.

In 2007, Slovenia was the first Eastern European EU country to join the euro zone. The small country of two million inhabitants has long been regarded as economically sound. But since the financial crisis, the national debt has grown from year to year. According to the latest estimate by the EU Commission, the budget deficit for the year will have risen to 5.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In 2010, the ratio stood at 5.6 percent. The public debt will account for 42.8 percent of GDP in December. A year earlier, it was 38 percent. Euro group chief Juncker criticized foremost that the Slovenian population rejected the revamping of the state pension system and an increase of the retirement age in a referendum earlier this month. "Slovenia must now get to grips with problems elsewhere. An agreement on pension reform would have been the easiest way," Juncker said, according to the Slovenian news agency STA. The government must now take "quick and brutal" decisions.

In the beginning of the month, the Slovenian central bank chief Marko Kranjec had already warned against a rejection of the pension reform. The country must definitely do something about the rapidly growing national debt. "If things continue at this place, our country will find itself in Greece, Portugal or Ireland’s position," the central bank head said.

Slovenia is certainly still a good bit below the EU average with its level of debt, which is about 80 percent of GDP. Investors, however, are worried about the extremely rapid growth of the Slovenian government debt in such a short time. In 2005, the rate was 27 per cent of GDP. This year it will exceed the 40 percent level.

Gunter Deuber, Eastern Europe specialist at Raiffeisen Banking Group in Vienna, warns of a growing loss of credibility for this small country. With its open economy, Slovenia has so far always been regarded as fairly reliable and solid. At present, potential problems have been overlooked due to the crisis in Greece. Slovenia has to be careful, however, as international investors could turn away soon. "Slovenia is trying to find its way," laments Deuber. The openness of the previous era has been lost somewhat. The country is now increasingly closing itself off from the outside.

I would say the tone of the article is somewhat overstated since there is clearly no comparison between Slovenia and Greece on debt-to-GDP metrics. However, Slovenia’s problems highlight the fundamental deflationary bias of the euro system and all fixed exchange rate systems more generally.

In the wake of a deep recession, private sector demand falls. Income falls with it, causing tax receipts to fall even as budgetary needs rise due to automatic stabilizers. This opens up a wide government deficit. In general, this is what you want fiscal policy to do; the public sector picks up the slack for the private sector in and coming out of recession.

However, the euro acts as a gold standard for national governments within the euro zone as EMU has fixed their (now abolished) national currencies to an external currency they do not create. The Slovenian government needs to ‘get’ euros like any other euro currency user. This makes it vulnerable to liquidity concerns. Slovenia does need to be concerned given heightened awareness of euro zone budgetary problems. This is the risk governments run in abdicating currency sovereignty. Monetary policy is abdicated and fiscal flexibility is reduced as was initially desired in setting up the euro zone. That will likely mean cuts in Slovenia, adding yet further to fiscal policy as a drag throughout the euro zone.

Source: Slowenien wird zum neuen Sorgenkind der EU – Handelsblatt

Links 6/28/11

Look customers in the eyes to lock them in the aisles Sydney Morning Herald (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)

A Release Valve for Cyclists’ Unrelenting Pressure New York Times. The resistance to this invention amazes me (but then again, I’ve had some good experiences on the bleeding edge)

Fukushima’s Cesium Spew – Deadly Catch-22s in Japan Disaster Relief TruthOut (hat tip reader May S)

Krokodil: The drug that eats junkies Independent (hat tip reader Foppe). I have a pretty strong stomach, and even so, this is grim reading.

Une taxe pour freiner la spéculation sur les marchés financiers Le Monde (hat tip reader Tim C). Wow, an open letter in favor of a Tobin tax.

The Shadow Banking Problem in China Credit Writedowns

It’s not only Greeks who’ve lost their marbles Telegraph (hat tip reader Thomas B)

On Obama, Wall St. Shows a Reluctance to Commit New York Times

What Is This “Washington”? James Kwak (hat tip reader Carol B)

Nonprofit Insurers: Reaping Profits at the Expense of the Consumer Wendell Porter, Huffington Post

Shadow spreading across international banking Gillian Tett, Financial Times. Anyone know how these players are financing themselves? It is guaranteed they aren’t really separate from the banking system.

Major banks may give away discarded residences to cut losses Dayton Daily News

How corporations award themselves legal immunity Guardian (hat tip Ed Harrison)

America’s unique hatred of finance reform David Sirota, Salon

Antidote du jour:

Philip Pilkington: Economic Fetishism – Three Objects of Perverse Intellectual Pleasure

By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer based in Dublin, Ireland

Watch out, I have a large, very large fur, with which I could cover you up entirely, and I have a mind to catch you in it as in a net.
– Leopold von Sacher-Masoch

Many aspects of contemporary economic theory certainly seem to have their origins in the mythic and the moral rather than in the realm of the rational. But while this seems to be an accurate description of the system as a whole, it does not seem quite able to account for certain aspects of this system which appear to be rather obsessive in the minds of its adherents.

These obsessions, or ‘fetishes’, can be explained in like terms, that is: compared to certain primitive rituals and superstitions. To do so we will first have to form a better understanding of the fetish itself; an Enlightenment concept that has a long and interesting history.

The specific fetishes we will explore will be the most important today: the government, inflation and gold. All these phenomena are interconnected in neoclassical economic theory (yes, even gold, or at least the ghost thereof), however, they tend to lead their own individual existence outside of the Grand Neoclassical System itself. In and of themselves they are, for economists and economic commentators, fetishes that can be worshipped in dark rooms away from the great hall. They are like fragments of the main theory that adherents smuggle out of the temple and obsess over in their own private shrines.

This may seem like an obscure practice but it is a very important one, especially in times when the Great System has been so thoroughly shaken. Today more so perhaps than ever, commentators seem willing to worship their favourite fetish – be it the intrusive presence of Big Government or the lack of gold in the bank vaults – rather than take stock of what has actually occurred.

Before we begin it should be noted that while it is usually commentators, the educated public and economic functionaries that engage in fetish worship, economists occasionally do so themselves and even when they do not it is always the economists themselves that choose what will become a fetish by underlying some aspect of the Great System or other.

Before we begin we must turn to the notion of the fetish itself in order to understand its meaning more clearly.

A Brief History of the Fetish

What is a fetish? Today people will probably equate a fetish with a form of sexual behaviour. They might also, if they have attended lectures on the social sciences, be familiar with Karl Marx’s ideas about ‘commodity fetishism’. Both of these ideas were products of the 19th century and they share a mutual, deeper source.

The term comes from the 18th century French writer Charles de Brosses. De Brosses picked it up from the Portugese who coined it to describe certain magical practices the observed in Western Africa among the natives. They noted that these natives often attributed magical properties to certain objects – such as feather necklaces or beads – and so began to refer to these objects as ‘fetishes’, derived from the Latin word facticius, which means ‘artificial’ or ‘man-made’.

It was from de Brosse that Marx too derived his idea of ‘commodity fetishism’. Marx saw certain contemporary practices as similar to primitive fetishes and considered them to be carry-overs from earlier forms of thought. So, for example, he thought that people’s worship of money – more specifically, what he called the ‘money form’ – was a modern manifestation of fetishism.

Then there were the 19th century ideas about sexual fetishism. These were introduced by the French psychologist and hypnotist Alfred Binet who also derived his ideas from de Brosse. Binet’s theories, which made an extraordinary and very modern contribution to the theory of human sexuality, are remarkable and largely forgotten today – much, I think, to the loss of those of us living in the 21st century.

Binet didn’t consider the fetish to be a monstrously perverse manifestation of freak sexuality – a view certainly held by most of his contemporaries. Instead he thought that fetishism lay at the heart of all sexuality. Binet claimed that we are all, to a greater or lesser degree, fetishists and that the weirder of these fetishes are of difference from ‘normal’ sexuality in degree rather than in kind.

All of these theories on fetishism should be viewed as interconnected and, in order for us to have an appreciable idea of what fetishism is, they should be allowed to coexist. They all highlight different shapes taken by what is correctly denoted as a singular phenomenon: fetishism.

Fetishism, to summarise rather crudely, is a way of viewing the world where certain specific ideas or objects become locked – usually unconsciously – into the mind, and become key reference points for everything from sexual attraction to religious rituals to means of payment.
The attachment to these ideas and objects then is almost wholly passionate. This accounts for why they are so often grounded in irrationalism. They are like the building blocks of the larger systems with which we organise our lives, but due to the reverence shown to these particular aspects of the larger intellectual systems they can often be broken off and leant an autonomy all of their own.

How then, do these fetishes apply to popular conceptions of free-market economics?

Economics as a Dissemination of Fetishes

From the very start economics students are raised prone to fetishism of the most extreme variety. Certain ideas in economics are stressed and their social consequences hinted at to be of immense importance. Inflation, as we will see, is taught to be particularly important in its implications and is, in the minds of many, detached from the theory being taught and given a sort of force in its own right. So too is government intervention. The Grand Neoclassical System caters to these fetishes as it is, to a large extent, built upon them and the moral systems from which they come.

What results is a sort of intellectual sound bite that can be thrown out almost at random in a discussion or an argument. If the interlocutor or opponent then tries to work around the fetish and construct a rational argument he or she is ignored, grossly misunderstood or accused of, in a sense, desecrating the fetish.

These fetishes seem to become even more important to the educated public as the pillars of mainstream economics crumble. Faced with the fact that the Grand Neoclassical System might be incoherent people retreat to their fetishes.

One comparison that many will be familiar with is the story about when the Hebrew people began to fear that Moses might not return from Mount Sinai and turned to the worship of a Golden Calf. This, as is commonly known, is referred to as ‘idol worship’ which means the worship of a false god. Given that the ‘true God’ is doubted because of difficult circumstances the ‘false god’ is erected.

This is, in a sense, similar to the argument here. However, fetishism should be seen as even more primitive than idolatry. While the community continues to organise around the Golden Calf, fetishism tends disperse the community into perverse sects. So, one sect might take the leg of the calf, while another might take its head as the object of worship – the Calf is no longer a god, false or otherwise, but is broken down into a series of objects that different people imbue with different magical properties. This is the true nature of fetishism. While many might point to neoclassicism as the worship of a false god, it was a god – that is, a central turning point around which the community could organise. Fetishism is something altogether different.

The problem with fetish worship then should be obvious. While neoclassicism may have serious shortcomings it gives people faith in their leaders and gives their leaders some sort of model to work off. The fetishes, however, are simply aspects of the theory – limbs of the calf – and make no sense whatsoever when they are worshipped alone. Incoherence and mass-confusion ensues. (This should not excuse neoclassicism, of course. If it were a coherent theory it would not be susceptible to such chaotic breakdowns.)

What really determines the nature of the particular fetish adopted seems to be wholly subjective, a personal attachment – always passionate and irrational – that is given to one or another of the fetishes. So, one commentator might be shrieking about the size of government while another might be trembling at the thought of inflation. The problems facing policymakers probably have nothing to do with either of these aspects of economic theory but since they are no longer tied to the greater system they gain an autonomy in their own right – as a sort of personal obsession; or fetish.

What we end up with is a tribe of economic commentators and functionaries divided; each picking up their favourite fetish – be it a fertility statue or inflation – and going off to their separate shrines to worship their particular fetish. And so the tribe becomes divided; completely unable to govern itself.

Fetish I: Government

Of all the economic fetishes in circulation today the fear of government seems the most important, the most passionate and, not surprisingly, often the most patently ridiculous. It takes its quote-unquote ‘rational’ weight from the idea that if free-markets were allowed to operate without government constraint something good will happen. These ideas are forced into students brains in undergraduate economics classes. The reality of the government’s role in the economy is altogether different, but before we sketch this out let us turn to one particularly absurd manifestation of this fetish today.

You’ve seen it before. The websites and the dinner-table conversations where the participants claim that the current financial crisis was due to too much government intervention. The first time I came across this fetish I was flabbergasted. My mouth dropped, my eyes opened wide, “Does this person read the newspaper?” I thought. Well, it turns out that, yes, they probably do read the newspaper as it is generally educated people who make this outlandish claim.

The trick is that these people ‘know’ something that the newspaper doesn’t. What is this arcane piece of knowledge? Specifically, that government regulation and intervention has wrecked the economy and that it was this corruption that led to all the ‘badness’ that came out in the crisis.
Press them on it and they cannot really explain further – or, if they can it is usually a haphazard freak-fest of deranged brain-wrongery so completely bizarre that it makes you question the validity of Man’s existence itself. It’s like arguing with a Truther or any hardcore conspiracy nut. They possess an obscure ability to bend the discussion to their will by throwing out strange, irrelevant and often made-up references that, even if you could keep up with, would prove impenetrable.

This is fetishism. It gains credence from the vague idea derived – and perhaps one of the few retained – from an undergraduate course in economics or business, that the free-market leads to ‘goodness’ and the government causes ‘badness’. The idea is split off from the theory of the markets itself and becomes an autonomous force: a fetish. This fetish, like a parasite, takes over the brain of the host and transfixes them in a repetitious ritual song wherein they spew out random ‘facts’ that revolve around the idea.

The economic reality of government is, of course, far more complex. The government plays an extremely important role in the economy, two aspects of which I will now highlight. Perhaps before I do this I should try to debunk straight out the idea that government intervention and regulation caused the financial crisis, but I’m not going to do this because anyone that believes this… well… they’d believe anything and I’d suggest that instead of trying to convince them otherwise you should come up with a scam to fleece them of everything they own.

Okay, so two of the most important roles that the government plays in the economy are geared to ensure that said economy does not slip into a Great Depression-style slump every time there is a relatively large financial crisis. There are many other important roles that the government plays in the economy, but I choose to highlight these particular ones as they show up an important aspect of the glaring moronism of the anti-government fetishists.

(Disclaimer: What follows does not count for Eurozone governments. The periphery of these are essentially self-destructive client states geared to take on unsustainable debt loads that are shunned by the bigger players in Europe who abuse the system to sell goods to these countries and then allow them to fall apart when things get bad).

Anyway, the first function the government serves in these instances is to step in and take on more debt to make up the gap in private sector spending that result from these crises. To put that more simply: when the private sector stops spending, the government does. This allows unemployment and output to remain at relatively tolerant levels; that is, until the anti-government and other fetishists step in and wreck this. Hyman Minsky called this, rather pertinently considering our present discussion, the ‘Big Government’ aspect of the government’s response to crises. In his book ‘Stabilizing an Unstable Economy’ he uses the example of the 1974-75 US financial crisis-cum-recession [p. 41]:

In 1975, because of Big Government and the large increase in government debt, the default risk of business and bank portfolios decreased. As business liquidated inventories, they decreased their indebtedness to banks and acquired government debt. Banks and other financial institutions acquired liquidity by buying government debt rather than by decreasing their assets and liabilities. The public, both households and business, not only acquired safe assets in the form of bank deposits and savings deposits, but were able to decrease their indebtedness relative to income. The existence of a large and increasing government debt thus acted as a significant stabilizer of portfolios during the threatening period of 1975. [You can see the large ’75 deficits here]

The other important action the government takes during these crises is to act as the ‘lender of last resort’. While this may be a somewhat irritating practice as it props up dodgy private institutions, there is no doubt that without government serving this function in some shape or form, the results would be a depression of the 1930s variety. So while people may rightly claim that governments should try to restrain institutions from availing of government bailouts, this is an integral function amidst today’s particular economic circumstances. To point this out is not to commend it.

Minsky once again summarised this nicely with reference to the 1974-75 US financial crisis-cum-recession [p. 43]:

Whereas Big Government stabilizes output, employment and profits by its deficits, then lender of last resort stabilizes asset values and financial markets; for example, the Federal Reserve buys, stands ready to buy, or accepts as collateral financial assets that are otherwise not marketable; it thereby substitutes, or stands ready to substitute, its own riskless liabilities for assets at risk in various portfolios. Whereas Big Government operates on aggregate demand, sectoral surpluses, and increments of government liabilities in portfolios, the lender of last resort works on the value of inherited structure of assets and the refinancing available for various portfolios.

Sound familiar? Yeah, it should. It’s pretty much what happened post-2008.

As an aside, Minsky points out that should financial instability continue to be allowed to metastasize unchecked these counterbalances may not be enough [p. 75]:

The lender of last resort interventions and the massive government deficits that have prevented the sky from falling are strong medicine. Strong medicine often has side effects. [W]e know that the system can evolve so that medicine that was effective in one regime or one set of structures may not be effective in another.

This is an important aside indeed and bears careful consideration. However, it should be clear that the economic fetish of government phobia pure and simple is a misplaced and crankish idea that doesn’t deserve to be taken into consideration in real economic debate. It is just a pity that this fetish affects government policy as strongly as it does but more on that later.

Fetish II: Inflation

Lenin once said that the surest way to destroy capitalism is to debauch the currency and since he uttered these words they have occupied, consciously and unconsciously, the minds of many.
Inflation is seen by those who place extraordinary value on their property as a sort of class war waged upon their bank accounts. Many people don’t fully understand the process of rising prices, but they bridge this gap in their knowledge with an intuitive sense that someone or other is stealing from them.

But is someone actually stealing from them when prices rise? Sometimes – but rarely. The idea is more so than anything else an emotional reaction. If the shopkeeper is charging a higher price it is often assumed that there is some crook in the shadows pulling the strings. Inflation – or, more specifically, a rise in a price – induces paranoia.

These days, having been indoctrinated by mainstream economists and the media, people learn to equate price rises with trade-unions and government expenditure. They also tend to equate sustained inflation with hyperinflation – calling to mind images of wheelbarrows of money being pushed around by Robert Mugabe. Now this is a fetish if we should ever see one. It even looks like a fantasy – with the evil African dictator wheeling away large stashes of cash, presumably used to finance his harem, his family members in overpaid civil servant positions or his crude torture chamber. It’s really too good.

Let’s start with hyperinflation. (For a more complete discussion of this try here and here – and a simpler outline here). Hyperinflation is a rare, if not nonexistent phenomenon in our present age in the advanced industrial world, and there is good reason for this.

In order for hyperinflation to take hold consumers need to have access to basically unlimited amounts of cash or credit. If the government cuts taxes or hires a few extra workers this won’t be even close to enough on the demand side. Consumers need direct access to a constant stream of credit or cash, otherwise when the price rises take off, they’ll be pulled down again because people won’t have the hard cash to keep up. It also helps if there’s been a significant blow to confidence in the currency among the domestic population – as say happened in Mexico during the Peso crisis.

Hyperinflation proper is also assisted in its rise by a significant fall in productive capacity. I don’t mean a simple loss of output due to, say, unemployment or a few disparate strikes; I mean a full-scale wiping out of productive capacity. Say, the recent land grabs in Zimbabwe or the French occupying the Ruhr Valley in Germany in 1923 and the resulting production disruptions. This increased – and constantly and perhaps infinitely growing – supply of money chasing fewer and fewer goods might trigger a hyperinflation. But it’s still a ‘might’, especially in advanced industrial countries where social bonds are strong and governments legitimate (well, fairly legitimate…).

Advanced industrial countries with reasonably (I say, ‘reasonably’) stable banking systems do not generally face this sort of crisis. Indeed, they have not faced them since the Weimar Germany episode – and that was a relatively advanced country that was crushed in a major war and subject to harsh reparation payments and domestic revolutionary pressures – it was also some 90 years ago in a very different era. I’m of the opinion that, discounting nuclear war, an alien invasion or the seizure of power in the advanced nations by hardline Maoists, hyperinflation will never occur in the West.

Hyperinflation just isn’t a concern these days. But it is a fetish, and a rather powerful one at that. It is imbued with a power to tear society asunder, causing famine and strife. A witch’s wand of an idea waved by the semi-educated and the uncurious. It might be scary, if it was actually a threat – but it’s not.

What about garden variety inflation then?

Well, first of all we should ask the question: what is inflation? This isn’t a stupid question. Many people today equate inflation with price rises. This isn’t strictly true. If I sell you cans of beer and the cost of hops goes up and I pass this cost onto you as a onetime increase this is not inflation, it is merely the market passing on costs. Inflation is a sustained rise in the general price of goods. Most goods must be rising in price over time for inflation to be said to exist.
So where does inflation come from? Professor John T. Harvey in an excellent summary gives four main sources:

(1) Market power: This is monopoly plain and simple. I stole all the fishes – you want a fish – since no one else competes with me in the fish market I increase the price of fish – the general price of fish rises and along with it any other products that are made using fish (fish paste, fish oil, baggy-trousers with fish in the pockets etc.). It should also be noted that trade unions, in certain circumstances, have monopoly control over wages and they can cause these to rise. This in turn causes prices to rise, which may result in further wage rises and so on. This called a ‘wage-price spiral’ – more on this below.

(2) Supply shock: A wiping out of a stock of a product that is then passed on in the form of price increases to other products. Peak oil folk, for example, claim that when oil starts running out the prices of everything is going to increase – because, haven’t you heard? everything is made of oil. If this happens apparently we’re all going to have to live in the wild and hunt animals naked and the like. This is a classic supply shock inflation.

(3) Asset market boom: Am I really going to explain this to the Naked Capitalism readers? Come on… Mr. Speculator meet Mrs. Commodity. Cost of Mrs. Commodity rises. Mr. Speculator stuffs his greasy pockets. Other prices rise because these products require Mrs. Commodity to be produced.

(4) Demand pull: A favourite among neoclassicals and fetishists. The idea is that people have too much spending power and there are too few goods in the economy; money spent being greater than goods on offer means higher prices. It is generally assumed that this ‘too much spending’ comes from the government pumping money into useless projects that benefit no one: stairways to nowhere, poor people that should be dead by now, that sort of thing.

So, where’s the fetish at? Well, it tends to be a mix of two of the theories a laid out above – torn out of their context, of course. Which two? Wage-price spirals and government spending, of course. Or to speak without the euphemisms: unions and welfare queens. Haven’t you heard? These groups are costing us money. And not just through taxes either, they cause inflation too.

The reality is quite different. Wage-price spirals were a major threat in the heyday of union activity – roughly from the late-1940s up to the late-1970s, when unions actually had significant power. Even then, however, they were rarely at the root of inflation. The inflation of the 1970s, for example, was caused by rising oil prices. This was due to Arab monopolists bringing the pain to the West due to the latter’s support for the Israelis in the Yom Kippur war of 1973 (See the ‘Market Power’ variety of inflation as listed above). When various prices started rising in the economy unions used their market power to increase wages and maintain living standards. This in turn caused more price rises and so on. But at base was the rise in the price of oil.

Anyway, these days the idea that wage-price spirals might cause sustained inflation is silly. The unions took a major bashing in the Reagan-Thatcher era and haven’t recovered since – nor will they, if I were to make a prediction.

As for government spending, I won’t go into it too much, but aggregate demand is in the gutter since the 2008 collapse and subsequent recession. Notice that people aren’t buying much stuff these days and loads of people have lost their jobs? Well that leads to less spending, so most economies could really use an injection of government spending right about now. A good rule of thumb is that governments should be spending roughly in proportion to the amount of people and resources unemployed. This will almost certainly NOT cause inflation. Anything beyond this might.

But when these are generally invoked they are not rational arguments and we should not take them to be. Once again they are lore hinted at by the neoclassicals who stress these aspects in lectures and in the media. People pick up on this because they justify the prejudices they harbour against certain groups: poor people, workers, ‘useless’ old people and, hell, there’s no point in hiding it, you people are aware of the undertones of the welfare queen narratives… blacks and Hispanics.

These ideas then become fetishised and worshipped for their own sake. They are fetishes actively geared toward stopping society from improving itself in key regards. In many ways they are conservative fetishes, the veneration of which allows people to justify low wages, unemployment and poverty. Other causes of inflation are conveniently ignored or left off the radar (ever notice that commodity speculation gets less media attention than it should even though it is readily remediable?). This is a fetish that serves to conserve a certain way of living and a certain approach to policymaking; nothing more, nothing less.

Fetish III: Gold

Gold is perhaps the ultimate economic fetish even though it is the least explicitly invoked in popular discourse. Gold signifies for many a sort of stability. This is often an indefinable stability but, like all fetishes, this is usually based on ‘feeling’ rather than reasoned thought. This sense of stability is without doubt the central purpose that the gold fetish serves, for economists and non-economists alike.

The world is an uncertain place. Money values fluctuate and the cost of goods rises (and sometimes, though more rarely, falls). Some commodities, however, give off an aura of consistency; these include artworks and antiques, collectables and certain ‘hard’ commodities.

For many – usually the upper-middle class – these act as a sort of stabilising mechanism for the way they organise their world. So they might own a classic convertible that they drive on the weekends or they may surround themselves with antique furniture which they pass down through the generations. They literally live among things, things that they view as having a relatively fixed value. Certainty in an uncertain world.

Gold is one of the same species. However, it has two features that distinguish it from the other commodities. First of all, and rather less importantly, gold is generally thought of as more ‘democratic’ and less ‘elitist’ than an artwork or a classic piece of mahogany furniture. Why? That’s a very complex issue and this isn’t the place to explore it, but without a doubt it has a lot to do with our second feature. And that is the fact that gold was once, for a rather brief historical period, the fulcrum around which the world monetary system organised itself.

The idea that the bank notes in your pocket might be exchangeable for a fixed amount of gold bullion no matter what else happens in the world economy is a seductive one. And it is out of this attractive notion that the contemporary fetish of gold is born. When in place the gold standard gives the user of legal tender a sense of security. Indeed, it often allows them to escape the anxiety of an ever changing world – even if this escape is an illusion and a lie.

So when economic instability occurs and a gold standard is not in place people turn to gold hoards. They did so during the present crisis and they also did so during the monetary crisis that took place in the late-70s and early-80s. Not only do their savings turn to gold but so to do their minds. People hark back to the days of the gold standard, thinking that a return to this nostalgic time will solve our present economic woes. Austrian theorists are invoked and the central bank is attacked with mercy. Economic ‘theories’ spring up on the internet that more so resemble conspiracy theories than they do actual economic theories.

In reality nothing could be further from the truth than that the gold standard was a panacea. The system, while being theoretically pristine, was in fact highly unstable. Let’s run through a quick bit of history to illustrate this. (For a more in depth take, visit here).

While gold was used as a means of exchange throughout history it only became the official monetary standard for the world in 1844 when the Bank of England passed the Bank Charter Act, allowing full convertibility of Bank of England notes into gold specie at a fixed exchange rate. You could now bring your British pounds to a bank and get the equivalent value in gold bullion. Other nations followed suit.

This system really only lasted until the First World War. After that it began to breakdown into complete incoherence, but more on that in a moment.

The period in which the gold standard operated was, by many standards, rather unique. The British Empire had reached its nadir as the world economic superpower and wars and international conflict had been sparse and inconsequential. This is what really accounts for the working of the gold standard in this period; that is, the importance of Britain as the central world economic hub and the relative stability of international relations. This explains why the gold standard became widely adopted after the Brits established the 1844 Bank Charter Act. It was a simple case of ‘follow the leader’. But once the leader went into decline, so too did the world political system and with it the contemporary monetary standard.

With the onset of World War I most governments dropped the gold standard. The gold standard imposed limitations on how much they could spend and this was no good for a power engaged in a massive war. When the war came to a close the gold standard, together with the monetary systems of most countries, was in tatters.

Some gold fetishists claim, of course, that this is where ‘it all went wrong’; but that is pallid nonsense. The world was evolving and changing and the fixed gold standard of 1844 was quickly becoming outdated. This was obvious even at the turn of the 19th century when the likes of William Jennings Bryan was making his famous ‘Cross of Gold’ speech – which can be heard here. The economic historian Karl Polanyi wrote in his famous book ‘The Great Transformation’ – which is an amazing history of the broader forces that led to the collapse of the gold standard proper – that [p. 21]:

The breakdown of the international gold standard was the invisible link between the disintegration of world economy that started at the turn of the century and the transformation of a whole civilisation in the thirties.

The gold standard had become a restriction on the progress of civilisation that was speeding up at the time and had to be done away with, as a snake sheds its old skin. Yes, there were cranks who disliked this new era – the Austrian Schoolers were some – but they were relics of a different era, nostalgic for the economic, social and political systems of their childhoods; much the same way that you hear the ‘Golden Age’ in the US discussed among older people today, often with a twinkle in the eye and a convenient forgetting of the social chaos that was bubbling under the surface.

After WWII a new system was set up. It was the gold standard once again, but in a different guise and under the auspices of very different economic policies. The central hub this time around was the US, but in a far more direct manner than Britain had been in the High Victorian era. The British, as has been said, initiated a gold standard and then were ‘followed’ by the rest of the world into doing the same. The 1946 Bretton Woods system was altogether different. Now it was the US dollar that was convertible into a fixed amount of gold, while the other currencies were to be convertible into the US dollar. It was a sort of gold standard, but at one step removed.

This quasi-gold standard – despised by the nostalgists – was in place to serve the same purpose as the original gold standard: that is, to stop the government quote-unquote ‘spending beyond its means’. It is, of course, somewhat ironic that this was the era of government spending proper, but that’s another day’s discussion.

Once again the new gold standard didn’t last long and succumbed to the pressures of history (as so often glistening economic theoretical constructs do). Nixon scrapped the gold standard in 1971 because various countries were devaluing in order to counteract high rates of unemployment, while the US was spending a small fortune in East Asia to fight the Commies.

You can see Nixon’s speech here; it’s a fascinating piece of history – an ostensible conservative giving up on his principles in the face of new realities. You can almost see his dismay and disorientation.

This date is now fetishised by the gold bugs; this, once again, is where it ‘all went wrong’. This is nonsense, of course. What had actually happened was once again the current of history had swept away an outdated monetary system that had ceased to function properly. The gold fetishists will claim that the instability that followed is proof that Nixon made the wrong move, a typical claim by the economic fetishist who wishes to bend history to fit his or her narrow conception of the world. Again this is complete nonsense; the instability caused the move away from gold, not vice versa.

Those who wish to return to the gold standard today are massively ignorant of the forces driving history. They are usually fetishists that want history itself to conform to their way of conceiving how society should be organised. They cannot and will not see that history is a dynamic flow of events and anything that gets in its way will be cast, to turn a famous phrase, into the dustbin. The idea that a new Bretton Woods system could be put in place is farcical in the extreme – the US is far from its post-war power and would not have the political clout to enact such a system. If it tried to do so alone is would be destroyed competitively by countries not adhering to the old ways. The idea that we could return to an 1844 Bank Charter system is likewise and perhaps even more so ridiculous. Can you imagine countries shipping gold bullion to one another in return for trade? Japan ships a freight of Nissans to Ireland; Ireland sends a freight of gold bullion back. Come on, the world has got a bit too complex for that.

So, do the mainstream economists play a part in disseminating the gold fetish? Yes, but not as directly as they spread those other perverse ideas that we have discussed. There is no point in going into technical details here (if you want them I’d suggest this), but the neoclassical system still assumes that we are on the Bretton Woods standard.

The neoclassicals assume this in the way they teach undergraduates how modern central banks fund government spending. This is what we see daily in the media about governments ‘running out of money’ and the like. This nonsense leads the educated public to treat the government in the same way it might treat a household and this sort of thinking feeds into the idea that there must be some ‘thing’ that is anchoring government spending. While educated people don’t tend to equate this ‘thing’ with gold, when they think about the system in any depth they become panicky that this imaginary ‘thing’ does not exist at all and that the truth is that we operate in a state-backed fiat currency regime where currencies have no intrinsic value. This, more often than not, leads to yet more gold fetishism.

Contemporary Fetishism

These three fetishes – and they are not the only ones – run rife in public discourse. Most people do not spend their time studying how the economic system actually works. Most don’t even have time to fully come to grips with the easy mythologies adhered to by the neoclassicals. So they fill these intellectual gaps with fetishes.

These fetishes – and, as has been pointed out above, the academic economists hold a great deal of the responsibility for this – have an extremely important bearing on the way we run our societies. Nothing can end a discussion on public policy faster than invoking big government, inflation or that the government is running out of money.

In this these fetishes are greatly constraining our ability to properly govern our societies. This is especially so after the current financial crisis when people, distrusting the economists whose theories essentially led to the meltdown, return instead to their favourite fetish. Even people who should know better opt out for the simple solution. It’s very easy to call for a new gold standard or smaller government when, at some level, people must know that such a thing will never and can never be implemented. It’s not so easy to face reality as it is and formulate policy proposals that tread on too many myths to be popular.

We began with a quote from Leopold von Sacher-Masoch, the fetishist novelist of the 19th century after whom the sexual fetish of ‘masochism’ was named. It seems only fitting that we should end with a lyric from a song entitled after and based upon his most famous work. In The Velvet Underground’s avant-garde masterpiece ‘Venus in Furs’, Lou Reed sings a lyric that could so easily be applied to our economic fetishist:

Tongue of thongs, the belt that does await you
Strike, dear mistress, and cure his heart

For this is what the economic fetishes do for us today. They cure, not our societies, but our hearts. They are, more so than anything else a lure, a lulling to sleep – they are…

A thousand dreams that would awake me
Different colors made of tears